Using warming tolerances to predict understory plant responses to climate change.

Climate change is pushing species towards and potentially beyond their critical thermal limits. The extent to which species can cope with temperatures exceeding their critical thermal limits is still uncertain. To better assess species' responses to warming, we compute the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) as a thermal vulnerability index, using species' upper thermal limits (the temperature at the warm limit of their distribution range) minus the local habitat temperature actually experienced at a given location. This metric is useful to predict how much more warming species can tolerate before negative impacts are expected to occur. Here we set up a cross-continental transplant experiment involving five regions distributed along a latitudinal gradient across Europe (43° N-61° N). Transplant sites were located in dense and open forests stands, and at forest edges and in interiors. We estimated the warming tolerance for 12 understory plant species common in European temperate forests. During 3 years, we examined the effects of the warming tolerance of each species across all transplanted locations on local plant performance, in terms of survival, height, ground cover, flowering probabilities and flower number. We found that the warming tolerance (ΔTniche ) of the 12 studied understory species was significantly different across Europe and varied by up to 8°C. In general, ΔTniche were smaller (less positive) towards the forest edge and in open stands. Plant performance (growth and reproduction) increased with increasing ΔTniche across all 12 species. Our study demonstrated that ΔTniche of understory plant species varied with macroclimatic differences among regions across Europe, as well as in response to forest microclimates, albeit to a lesser extent. Our findings support the hypothesis that plant performance across species decreases in terms of growth and reproduction as local temperature conditions reach or exceed the warm limit of the focal species.

ForestClim-Bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests.

Microclimate research gained renewed interest over the last decade and its importance for many ecological processes is increasingly being recognized. Consequently, the call for high-resolution microclimatic temperature grids across broad spatial extents is becoming more pressing to improve ecological models. Here, we provide a new set of open-access bioclimatic variables for microclimate temperatures of European forests at 25 × 25 m2 resolution.

Forest understorey communities respond strongly to light in interaction with forest structure, but not to microclimate warming.

Forests harbour large spatiotemporal heterogeneity in canopy structure. This variation drives the microclimate and light availability at the forest floor. So far, we do not know how light availability and sub-canopy temperature interactively mediate the impact of macroclimate warming on understorey communities. We therefore assessed the functional response of understorey plant communities to warming and light addition in a full factorial experiment installed in temperate deciduous forests across Europe along natural microclimate, light and macroclimate gradients. Furthermore, we related these functional responses to the species' life-history syndromes and thermal niches. We found no significant community responses to the warming treatment. The light treatment, however, had a stronger impact on communities, mainly due to responses by fast-colonizing generalists and not by slow-colonizing forest specialists. The forest structure strongly mediated the response to light addition and also had a clear impact on functional traits and total plant cover. The effects of short-term experimental warming were small and suggest a time-lag in the response of understorey species to climate change. Canopy disturbance, for instance due to drought, pests or logging, has a strong and immediate impact and particularly favours generalists in the understorey in structurally complex forests.

Soil seed bank responses to edge effects in temperate European forests.

Aim: The amount of forest edges is increasing globally due to forest fragmentation and land-use changes. However, edge effects on the soil seed bank of temperate forests are still poorly understood. Here, we assessed edge effects at contrasting spatial scales across Europe and quantified the extent to which edges can preserve the seeds of forest specialist plants. Location: Temperate European deciduous forests along a 2,300-km latitudinal gradient. Time period: 2018-2021. Major taxa studied: Vascular plants. Methods: Through a greenhouse germination experiment, we studied how edge effects alter the density, diversity, composition and functionality of forest soil seed banks in 90 plots along different latitudes, elevations and forest management types. We also assessed which environmental conditions drive the seed bank responses at the forest edge versus interior and looked at the relationship between the seed bank and the herb layer species richness. Results: Overall, 10,108 seedlings of 250 species emerged from the soil seed bank. Seed density and species richness of generalists (species not only associated with forests) were higher at edges compared to interiors, with a negative influence of C : N ratio and litter quality. Conversely, forest specialist species richness did not decline from the interior to the edge. Also, edges were compositionally, but not functionally, different from interiors. The correlation between the seed bank and the herb layer species richness was positive and affected by microclimate. Main conclusions: Our results underpin how edge effects shape species diversity and composition of soil seed banks in ancient forests, especially increasing the proportion of generalist species and thus potentially favouring a shift in community composition. However, the presence of many forest specialists suggests that soil seed banks still play a key role in understorey species persistence and could support the resilience of our fragmented forests.

Forest microclimates and climate change: Importance, drivers and future research agenda.

Forest microclimates contrast strongly with the climate outside forests. To fully understand and better predict how forests' biodiversity and functions relate to climate and climate change, microclimates need to be integrated into ecological research. Despite the potentially broad impact of microclimates on the response of forest ecosystems to global change, our understanding of how microclimates within and below tree canopies modulate biotic responses to global change at the species, community and ecosystem level is still limited. Here, we review how spatial and temporal variation in forest microclimates result from an interplay of forest features, local water balance, topography and landscape composition. We first stress and exemplify the importance of considering forest microclimates to understand variation in biodiversity and ecosystem functions across forest landscapes. Next, we explain how macroclimate warming (of the free atmosphere) can affect microclimates, and vice versa, via interactions with land-use changes across different biomes. Finally, we perform a priority ranking of future research avenues at the interface of microclimate ecology and global change biology, with a specific focus on three key themes: (1) disentangling the abiotic and biotic drivers and feedbacks of forest microclimates; (2) global and regional mapping and predictions of forest microclimates; and (3) the impacts of microclimate on forest biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in the face of climate change. The availability of microclimatic data will significantly increase in the coming decades, characterizing climate variability at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales relevant to biological processes in forests. This will revolutionize our understanding of the dynamics, drivers and implications of forest microclimates on biodiversity and ecological functions, and the impacts of global changes. In order to support the sustainable use of forests and to secure their biodiversity and ecosystem services for future generations, microclimates cannot be ignored.

ForestTemp - Sub-canopy microclimate temperatures of European forests.

Ecological research heavily relies on coarse-gridded climate data based on standardized temperature measurements recorded at 2 m height in open landscapes. However, many organisms experience environmental conditions that differ substantially from those captured by these macroclimatic (i.e. free air) temperature grids. In forests, the tree canopy functions as a thermal insulator and buffers sub-canopy microclimatic conditions, thereby affecting biological and ecological processes. To improve the assessment of climatic conditions and climate-change-related impacts on forest-floor biodiversity and functioning, high-resolution temperature grids reflecting forest microclimates are thus urgently needed. Combining more than 1200 time series of in situ near-surface forest temperature with topographical, biological and macroclimatic variables in a machine learning model, we predicted the mean monthly offset between sub-canopy temperature at 15 cm above the surface and free-air temperature over the period 2000-2020 at a spatial resolution of 25 m across Europe. This offset was used to evaluate the difference between microclimate and macroclimate across space and seasons and finally enabled us to calculate mean annual and monthly temperatures for European forest understories. We found that sub-canopy air temperatures differ substantially from free-air temperatures, being on average 2.1°C (standard deviation ± 1.6°C) lower in summer and 2.0°C higher (±0.7°C) in winter across Europe. Additionally, our high-resolution maps expose considerable microclimatic variation within landscapes, not captured by the gridded macroclimatic products. The provided forest sub-canopy temperature maps will enable future research to model below-canopy biological processes and patterns, as well as species distributions more accurately.

MIRRA: A Modular and Cost-Effective Microclimate Monitoring System for Real-Time Remote Applications.

Monitoring climate change, and its impacts on ecological, agricultural, and other societal systems, is often based on temperature data derived from official weather stations. Yet, these data do not capture most microclimates, influenced by soil, vegetation and topography, operating at spatial scales relevant to the majority of organisms on Earth. Detecting and attributing climate change impacts with confidence and certainty will only be possible by a better quantification of temperature changes in forests, croplands, mountains, shrublands, and other remote habitats. There is an urgent need for a novel, miniature and simple device filling the gap between low-cost devices with manual data download (no instantaneous data) and high-end, expensive weather stations with real-time data access. Here, we develop an integrative real-time monitoring system for microclimate measurements: MIRRA (Microclimate Instrument for Real-time Remote Applications) to tackle this problem. The goal of this platform is the design of a miniature and simple instrument for near instantaneous, long-term and remote measurements of microclimates. To that end, we optimised power consumption and transfer data using a cellular uplink. MIRRA is modular, enabling the use of different sensors (e.g., air and soil temperature, soil moisture and radiation) depending upon the application, and uses an innovative node system highly suitable for remote locations. Data from separate sensor modules are wirelessly sent to a gateway, thus avoiding the drawbacks of cables. With this sensor technology for the long-term, low-cost, real-time and remote sensing of microclimates, we lay the foundation and open a wide range of possibilities to map microclimates in different ecosystems, feeding a next generation of models. MIRRA is, however, not limited to microclimate monitoring thanks to its modular and wireless design. Within limits, it is suitable or any application requiring real-time data logging of power-efficient sensors over long periods of time. We compare the performance of this system to a reference system in real-world conditions in the field, indicating excellent correlation with data collected by established data loggers. This proof-of-concept forms an important foundation to creating the next version of MIRRA, fit for large scale deployment and possible commercialisation. In conclusion, we developed a novel wireless cost-effective sensor system for microclimates.

Plant movements and climate warming: intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils.

Most range shift predictions focus on the dispersal phase of the colonization process. Because moving populations experience increasingly dissimilar nonclimatic environmental conditions as they track climate warming, it is also critical to test how individuals originating from contrasting thermal environments can establish in nonlocal sites. We assess the intraspecific variation in growth responses to nonlocal soils by planting a widespread grass of deciduous forests (Milium effusum) into an experimental common garden using combinations of seeds and soil sampled in 22 sites across its distributional range, and reflecting movement scenarios of up to 1600 km. Furthermore, to determine temperature and forest-structural effects, the plants and soils were experimentally warmed and shaded. We found significantly positive effects of the difference between the temperature of the sites of seed and soil collection on growth and seedling emergence rates. Migrant plants might thus encounter increasingly favourable soil conditions while tracking the isotherms towards currently 'colder' soils. These effects persisted under experimental warming. Rising temperatures and light availability generally enhanced plant performance. Our results suggest that abiotic and biotic soil characteristics can shape climate change-driven plant movements by affecting growth of nonlocal migrants, a mechanism which should be integrated into predictions of future range shifts.

Limited effects of population age on the genetic structure of spatially isolated forest herb populations in temperate Europe.

Due to multiple land-cover changes, forest herb populations residing in forest patches embedded in agricultural landscapes display different ages and, thus, experience differences in genetic exchange, mutation accumulation and genetic drift. The extent of divergence in present-day population genetic structure among these populations of different ages remains unclear, considering their diverse breeding systems and associated pollinators. Answering this question is essential to understand these species' persistence, maintenance of evolutionary potential and adaptability to changing environments. We applied a multi-landscape setup to compare the genetic structure of forest herb populations across forest patches of different ages (18-338 years). We studied the impact on three common slow-colonizer herb species with distinct breeding systems and associated pollinators: Polygonatum multiflorum (outcrossing, long-distance pollinators), Anemone nemorosa (outcrossing, short-distance pollinators) and Oxalis acetosella (mixed breeding). We aimed to assess if in general older populations displayed higher genetic diversity and lower differentiation than younger ones. We also anticipated that P. multiflorum would show the smallest while O. acetosella the largest difference, between old and young populations. We found that older populations had a higher observed heterozygosity (H o) but a similar level of allelic richness (A r) and expected heterozygosity (H e) as younger populations, except for A. nemorosa, which exhibited higher A r and H e in younger populations. As populations aged, their pairwise genetic differentiation measured by D PS decreased independent of species identity while the other two genetic differentiation measures showed either comparable levels between old and young populations (G" ST) or inconsistency among three species (cGD). The age difference of the two populations did not explain their genetic differentiation. Synthesis: We found restricted evidence that forest herb populations with different ages differ in their genetic structure, indicating that populations of different ages can reach a similar genetic structure within decades and thus persist in the long term after habitat disturbance. Despite their distinct breeding systems and associated pollinators, the three studied species exhibited partly similar genetic patterns, suggesting that their common characteristics, such as being slow colonizers or their ability to propagate vegetatively, are important in determining their long-term response to land-cover change.

Trade-offs in biodiversity and ecosystem services between edges and interiors in European forests.

Forest biodiversity and ecosystem services are hitherto predominantly quantified in forest interiors, well away from edges. However, these edges also represent a substantial proportion of the global forest cover. Here we quantified plant biodiversity and ecosystem service indicators in 225 plots along forest edge-to-interior transects across Europe. We found strong trade-offs: phylogenetic diversity (evolutionary measure of biodiversity), proportion of forest specialists, decomposition and heatwave buffering increased towards the interior, whereas species richness, nectar production potential, stemwood biomass and tree regeneration decreased. These trade-offs were mainly driven by edge-to-interior structural differences. As fragmentation continues, recognizing the role of forest edges is crucial for integrating biodiversity and ecosystem service considerations into sustainable forest management and policy.

Unexpected westward range shifts in European forest plants link to nitrogen deposition.

Climate change is commonly assumed to induce species' range shifts toward the poles. Yet, other environmental changes may affect the geographical distribution of species in unexpected ways. Here, we quantify multidecadal shifts in the distribution of European forest plants and link these shifts to key drivers of forest biodiversity change: climate change, atmospheric deposition (nitrogen and sulfur), and forest canopy dynamics. Surprisingly, westward distribution shifts were 2.6 times more likely than northward ones. Not climate change, but nitrogen-mediated colonization events, possibly facilitated by the recovery from past acidifying deposition, best explain westward movements. Biodiversity redistribution patterns appear complex and are more likely driven by the interplay among several environmental changes than due to the exclusive effects of climate change alone.

Context matters: the landscape matrix determines the population genetic structure of temperate forest herbs across Europe.

Context: Plant populations in agricultural landscapes are mostly fragmented and their functional connectivity often depends on seed and pollen dispersal by animals. However, little is known about how the interactions of seed and pollen dispersers with the agricultural matrix translate into gene flow among plant populations. Objectives: We aimed to identify effects of the landscape structure on the genetic diversity within, and the genetic differentiation among, spatially isolated populations of three temperate forest herbs. We asked, whether different arable crops have different effects, and whether the orientation of linear landscape elements relative to the gene dispersal direction matters. Methods: We analysed the species' population genetic structures in seven agricultural landscapes across temperate Europe using microsatellite markers. These were modelled as a function of landscape composition and configuration, which we quantified in buffer zones around, and in rectangular landscape strips between, plant populations. Results: Landscape effects were diverse and often contrasting between species, reflecting their association with different pollen- or seed dispersal vectors. Differentiating crop types rather than lumping them together yielded higher proportions of explained variation. Some linear landscape elements had both a channelling and hampering effect on gene flow, depending on their orientation. Conclusions: Landscape structure is a more important determinant of the species' population genetic structure than habitat loss and fragmentation per se. Landscape planning with the aim to enhance the functional connectivity among spatially isolated plant populations should consider that even species of the same ecological guild might show distinct responses to the landscape structure. Supplementary Information: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10980-021-01376-7.

Maintaining forest cover to enhance temperature buffering under future climate change.

Forest canopies buffer macroclimatic temperature fluctuations. However, we do not know if and how the capacity of canopies to buffer understorey temperature will change with accelerating climate change. Here we map the difference (offset) between temperatures inside and outside forests in the recent past and project these into the future in boreal, temperate and tropical forests. Using linear mixed-effect models, we combined a global database of 714 paired time series of temperatures (mean, minimum and maximum) measured inside forests vs. in nearby open habitats with maps of macroclimate, topography and forest cover to hindcast past (1970-2000) and to project future (2060-2080) temperature differences between free-air temperatures and sub-canopy microclimates. For all tested future climate scenarios, we project that the difference between maximum temperatures inside and outside forests across the globe will increase (i.e. result in stronger cooling in forests), on average during 2060-2080, by 0.27 ± 0.16 °C (RCP2.6) and 0.60 ± 0.14 °C (RCP8.5) due to macroclimate changes. This suggests that extremely hot temperatures under forest canopies will, on average, warm less than outside forests as macroclimate warms. This knowledge is of utmost importance as it suggests that forest microclimates will warm at a slower rate than non-forested areas, assuming that forest cover is maintained. Species adapted to colder growing conditions may thus find shelter and survive longer than anticipated at a given forest site. This highlights the potential role of forests as a whole as microrefugia for biodiversity under future climate change.

Edge effects on the realised soil seed bank along microclimatic gradients in temperate European forests.

Despite the crucial role of the seed bank in forest conservation and dynamics, the effects of forest edge microclimate and climate warming on germination responses from the forest seed bank are still almost unknown. Here, we investigated edge effects on the realised seed bank and seedling community in two types of European temperate deciduous forest, one in the Oceanic and one in the Mediterranean climatic region. Responses in terms of seedling density, diversity, species composition and functional type of the seed bank at the forest edge and interior were examined along latitudinal, elevational and stand structural gradients by means of soil translocation experiments. Moreover, we translocated soil samples from high to low elevation forests in the two regions, thus performing a warming simulation. Density, species diversity and mortality of the seedlings varied with region and elevation. Seedling density also differed between forest edge and interior position, while seedling cover mainly depended on forest structure. Both the edge and interior forest seed bank contained a high proportion of generalist species. In Belgium, a more homogeneous seed bank was found at the forest edge and interior, while in Italy compositional and ecological differences were larger: at the forest edge, more light and less moisture demanding seedling communities developed, with a higher proportion of generalists compared to the interior. In both regions, the upland-to-lowland translocation experiment revealed effects of warming on forest seed banks with thermophilization of the realised communities. Moreover, edge conditions shifted the seedling composition towards more light-demanding communities. The establishment of more light and warm-adapted species from the seed bank could in the long term alter the aboveground vegetation composition, with communities becoming progressively richer in light-demanding generalists and poorer in forest specialists.

Drivers of carbon stocks in forest edges across Europe.

Forests play a key role in global carbon cycling and sequestration. However, the potential for carbon drawdown is affected by forest fragmentation and resulting changes in microclimate, nutrient inputs, disturbance and productivity near edges. Up to 20% of the global forested area lies within 100 m of an edge and, even in temperate forests, knowledge on how edge conditions affect carbon stocks and how far this influence penetrates into forest interiors is scarce. Here we studied carbon stocks in the aboveground biomass, forest floor and the mineral topsoil in 225 plots in deciduous forest edges across Europe and tested the impact of macroclimate, nitrogen deposition and smaller-grained drivers (e.g. microclimate) on these stocks. Total carbon and carbon in the aboveground biomass stock were on average 39% and 95% higher at the forest edge than 100 m into the interior. The increase in the aboveground biomass stock close to the edge was mainly related to enhanced nitrogen deposition. No edge influence was found for stocks in the mineral topsoil. Edge-to-interior gradients in forest floor carbon changed across latitude: carbon stocks in the forest floor were higher near the edge in southern Europe. Forest floor carbon decreased with increasing litter quality (i.e. high decomposition rate) and decreasing plant area index, whereas higher soil temperatures negatively affected the mineral topsoil carbon. Based on high-resolution forest fragmentation maps, we estimate that the additional carbon stored in deciduous forest edges across Europe amounts to not less than 183 Tg carbon, which is equivalent to the storage capacity of 1 million ha of additional forest. This study underpins the importance of including edge influences when quantifying the carbon stocks in temperate forests and stresses the importance of preserving natural forest edges and small forest patches with a high edge-to-interior surface area.

Response to Comment on "Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming".

Bertrand et al question our interpretation about warming effects on the thermophilization in forest plant communities and propose an alternative way to analyze climatic debt. We show that microclimate warming is a better predictor than macroclimate warming for studying forest plant community responses to warming. Their additional analyses do not affect or change our interpretations and conclusions.

Response to Comment on "Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming".

Schall and Heinrichs question our interpretation that the climatic debt in understory plant communities is locally modulated by canopy buffering. However, our results clearly show that the discrepancy between microclimate warming rates and thermophilization rates is highest in forests where canopy cover was reduced, which suggests that the need for communities to respond to warming is highest in those forests.

Forest microclimate dynamics drive plant responses to warming.

Climate warming is causing a shift in biological communities in favor of warm-affinity species (i.e., thermophilization). Species responses often lag behind climate warming, but the reasons for such lags remain largely unknown. Here, we analyzed multidecadal understory microclimate dynamics in European forests and show that thermophilization and the climatic lag in forest plant communities are primarily controlled by microclimate. Increasing tree canopy cover reduces warming rates inside forests, but loss of canopy cover leads to increased local heat that exacerbates the disequilibrium between community responses and climate change. Reciprocal effects between plants and microclimates are key to understanding the response of forest biodiversity and functioning to climate and land-use changes.

Replacements of small- by large-ranged species scale up to diversity loss in Europe's temperate forest biome.

Biodiversity time series reveal global losses and accelerated redistributions of species, but no net loss in local species richness. To better understand how these patterns are linked, we quantify how individual species trajectories scale up to diversity changes using data from 68 vegetation resurvey studies of seminatural forests in Europe. Herb-layer species with small geographic ranges are being replaced by more widely distributed species, and our results suggest that this is due less to species abundances than to species nitrogen niches. Nitrogen deposition accelerates the extinctions of small-ranged, nitrogen-efficient plants and colonization by broadly distributed, nitrogen-demanding plants (including non-natives). Despite no net change in species richness at the spatial scale of a study site, the losses of small-ranged species reduce biome-scale (gamma) diversity. These results provide one mechanism to explain the directional replacement of small-ranged species within sites and thus explain patterns of biodiversity change across spatial scales.

Light accelerates plant responses to warming.

Competition for light has profound effects on plant performance in virtually all terrestrial ecosystems. Nowhere is this more evident than in forests, where trees create environmental heterogeneity that shapes the dynamics of forest-floor communities(1-3). Observational evidence suggests that biotic responses to both anthropogenic global warming and nitrogen pollution may be attenuated by the shading effects of trees and shrubs(4-9). Here we show experimentally that tree shade is slowing down changes in below-canopy communities due to warming. We manipulated levels of photosynthetically active radiation, temperature and nitrogen, alone and in combination, in a temperate forest understorey over a 3-year period, and monitored the composition of the understorey community. Light addition, but not nitrogen enrichment, accelerated directional plant community responses to warming, increasing the dominance of warmth-preferring taxa over cold-tolerant plants (a process described as thermophilization(6,10-12)). Tall, competitive plants took greatest advantage of the combination of elevated temperature and light. Warming of the forest floor did not result in strong community thermophilization unless light was also increased. Our findings suggest that the maintenance of locally closed canopy conditions could reduce, at least temporarily, warming-induced changes in forest floor plant communities.