The impact of ordinal scales on Gaussian mixture recovery.

Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) are a popular and versatile tool for exploring heterogeneity in multivariate continuous data. Arguably the most popular way to estimate GMMs is via the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm combined with model selection using the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). If the GMM is correctly specified, this estimation procedure has been demonstrated to have high recovery performance. However, in many situations, the data are not continuous but ordinal, for example when assessing symptom severity in medical data or modeling the responses in a survey. For such situations, it is unknown how well the EM algorithm and the BIC perform in GMM recovery. In the present paper, we investigate this question by simulating data from various GMMs, thresholding them in ordinal categories and evaluating recovery performance. We show that the number of components can be estimated reliably if the number of ordinal categories and the number of variables is high enough. However, the estimates of the parameters of the component models are biased independent of sample size. Finally, we discuss alternative modeling approaches which might be adopted for the situations in which estimating a GMM is not acceptable.

Moderated Network Models.

Pairwise network models such as the Gaussian Graphical Model (GGM) are a powerful and intuitive way to analyze dependencies in multivariate data. A key assumption of the GGM is that each pairwise interaction is independent of the values of all other variables. However, in psychological research, this is often implausible. In this article, we extend the GGM by allowing each pairwise interaction between two variables to be moderated by (a subset of) all other variables in the model, and thereby introduce a Moderated Network Model (MNM). We show how to construct MNMs and propose an ℓ1-regularized nodewise regression approach to estimate them. We provide performance results in a simulation study and show that MNMs outperform the split-sample based methods Network Comparison Test (NCT) and Fused Graphical Lasso (FGL) in detecting moderation effects. Finally, we provide a fully reproducible tutorial on how to estimate MNMs with the R-package mgm and discuss possible issues with model misspecification.

A Tutorial on Estimating Time-Varying Vector Autoregressive Models.

Time series of individual subjects have become a common data type in psychological research. These data allow one to estimate models of within-subject dynamics, and thereby avoid the notorious problem of making within-subjects inferences from between-subjects data, and naturally address heterogeneity between subjects. A popular model for these data is the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model, in which each variable is predicted by a linear function of all variables at previous time points. A key assumption of this model is that its parameters are constant (or stationary) across time. However, in many areas of psychological research time-varying parameters are plausible or even the subject of study. In this tutorial paper, we introduce methods to estimate time-varying VAR models based on splines and kernel-smoothing with/without regularization. We use simulations to evaluate the relative performance of all methods in scenarios typical in applied research, and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. Finally, we provide a step-by-step tutorial showing how to apply the discussed methods to an openly available time series of mood-related measurements.

Interpreting the Ising Model: The Input Matters.

The Ising model is a model for pairwise interactions between binary variables that has become popular in the psychological sciences. It has been first introduced as a theoretical model for the alignment between positive (1) and negative (-1) atom spins. In many psychological applications, however, the Ising model is defined on the domain {0, 1} instead of the classical domain {-1,1}. While it is possible to transform the parameters of the Ising model in one domain to obtain a statistically equivalent model in the other domain, the parameters in the two versions of the Ising model lend themselves to different interpretations and imply different dynamics, when studying the Ising model as a dynamical system. In this tutorial paper, we provide an accessible discussion of the interpretation of threshold and interaction parameters in the two domains and show how the dynamics of the Ising model depends on the choice of domain. Finally, we provide a transformation that allows one to transform the parameters in an Ising model in one domain into a statistically equivalent Ising model in the other domain.

Latent Variable Models and Networks: Statistical Equivalence and Testability.

Networks are gaining popularity as an alternative to latent variable models for representing psychological constructs. Whereas latent variable approaches introduce unobserved common causes to explain the relations among observed variables, network approaches posit direct causal relations between observed variables. While these approaches lead to radically different understandings of the psychological constructs of interest, recent articles have established mathematical equivalences that hold between network models and latent variable models. We argue that the fact that for any model from one class there is an equivalent model from the other class does not mean that both models are equally plausible accounts of the data-generating mechanism. In many cases the constraints that are meaningful in one framework translate to constraints in the equivalent model that lack a clear interpretation in the other framework. Finally, we discuss three diverging predictions for the relation between zero-order correlations and partial correlations implied by sparse network models and unidimensional factor models. We propose a test procedure that compares the likelihoods of these models in light of these diverging implications. We use an empirical example to illustrate our argument.

Cross-Task Contributions of Frontobasal Ganglia Circuitry in Response Inhibition and Conflict-Induced Slowing.

Why are we so slow in choosing the lesser of 2 evils? We considered whether such slowing relates to uncertainty about the value of these options, which arises from the tendency to avoid them during learning, and whether such slowing relates to frontosubthalamic inhibitory control mechanisms. In total, 49 participants performed a reinforcement-learning task and a stop-signal task while fMRI was recorded. A reinforcement-learning model was used to quantify learning strategies. Individual differences in lose-lose slowing related to information uncertainty due to sampling, and independently, to less efficient response inhibition in the stop-signal task. Neuroimaging analysis revealed an analogous dissociation: subthalamic nucleus (STN) BOLD activity related to variability in stopping latencies, whereas weaker frontosubthalamic connectivity related to slowing and information sampling. Across tasks, fast inhibitors increased STN activity for successfully canceled responses in the stop task, but decreased activity for lose-lose choices. These data support the notion that fronto-STN communication implements a rapid but transient brake on response execution, and that slowing due to decision uncertainty could result from an inefficient release of this "hold your horses" mechanism.

Short-term sequences of aggressive behavior in psychiatric inpatients with psychotic disorders using Markov models.

BACKGROUND: Aggression in inpatients with psychotic disorders is harmful to patients and health care professionals. AIMS: The current study introduces a novel approach for assessing short-term sequences of different types of aggression. METHODS: Occurrence and type of aggressive behavior was assessed retrospectively by reviewing hospital charts in a sample of 120 inpatients with psychotic disorders, admitted to the psychiatric wards of an academic hospital using the Modified Overt Aggression Scale (MOAS). Behavioral sequences of verbal aggression, physical aggression against objects, physical aggression against oneself and physical aggression against others were analyzed by using Markov models, a statistical technique providing the probabilities of transferring from one state to another. RESULTS: The Markov models showed that when patients behave aggressively, they are likely to either show the same type of aggression or to be non-aggressive consecutively. Patients are, however, unlikely to subsequently show another type of aggression. Non-aggressive behavior is very unlikely to result in physical aggression or aggression against objects. CONCLUSION: The current study introduced a novel approach on how to investigate aggressive behavior in patients with psychotic disorders. Replication of our results in a bigger sample is needed to reliably develop a day-to-day risk assessment tool for aggressive behavior.

Age Differentiation within Gray Matter, White Matter, and between Memory and White Matter in an Adult Life Span Cohort.

It is well established that brain structures and cognitive functions change across the life span. A long-standing hypothesis called "age differentiation" additionally posits that the relations between cognitive functions also change with age. To date, however, evidence for age-related differentiation is mixed, and no study has examined differentiation of the relationship between brain and cognition. Here we use multigroup structural equation models (SEMs) and SEM trees to study differences within and between brain and cognition across the adult life span (18-88 years) in a large (N > 646, closely matched across sexes), population-derived sample of healthy human adults from the Cambridge Centre for Ageing and Neuroscience (www.cam-can.org). After factor analyses of gray matter volume (from T1- and T2-weighted MRI) and white matter organization (fractional anisotropy from diffusion-weighted MRI), we found evidence for the differentiation of gray and white matter, such that the covariance between brain factors decreased with age. However, we found no evidence for age differentiation among fluid intelligence, language, and memory, suggesting a relatively stable covariance pattern among cognitive factors. Finally, we observed a specific pattern of age differentiation between brain and cognitive factors, such that a white matter factor, which loaded most strongly on the hippocampal cingulum, became less correlated with memory performance in later life. These patterns are compatible with the reorganization of cognitive functions in the face of neural decline, and/or with the emergence of specific subpopulations in old age.SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The theory of age differentiation posits age-related changes in the relationships among cognitive domains, either weakening (differentiation) or strengthening (dedifferentiation), but evidence for this hypothesis is mixed. Using age-varying covariance models in a large cross-sectional adult life span sample, we found age-related reductions in the covariance among both brain measures (neural differentiation), but no covariance change among cognitive factors of fluid intelligence, language, and memory. We also observed evidence of uncoupling (differentiation) between a white matter factor and cognitive factors in older age, most strongly for memory. Together, our findings support age-related differentiation as a complex, multifaceted pattern that differs for brain and cognition, and discuss several mechanisms that might explain the changing relationship between brain and cognition.

Are individual differences quantitative or qualitative? An integrated behavioral and fMRI MIMIC approach.

In cognitive neuroscience there is a growing interest in individual differences. We propose the Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model of combined behavioral and fMRI data to determine whether such differences are quantitative or qualitative in nature. A simulation study revealed the MIMIC model to have adequate power for this goal, and parameter recovery to be satisfactory. The MIMIC model was illustrated with a re-analysis of Van Duijvenvoorde et al. (2016) and Blankenstein et al. (2018) decision making data. This showed individual differences in Van Duijvenvoorde et al. (2016) to originate in qualitative differences in decision strategies. Parameters indicated some individuals to use an expected value decision strategy, while others used a loss minimizing strategy, distinguished by individual differences in vmPFC activity. Individual differences in Blankenstein et al. (2018) were explained by quantitative differences in risk aversion. Parameters showed that more risk averse individuals preferred safe over risky choices, as predicted by heightened vmPFC activity. We advocate using the MIMIC model to empirically determine, rather than assume, the nature of individual differences in combined behavioral and fMRI datasets.

The Gaussian Graphical Model in Cross-Sectional and Time-Series Data.

We discuss the Gaussian graphical model (GGM; an undirected network of partial correlation coefficients) and detail its utility as an exploratory data analysis tool. The GGM shows which variables predict one-another, allows for sparse modeling of covariance structures, and may highlight potential causal relationships between observed variables. We describe the utility in three kinds of psychological data sets: data sets in which consecutive cases are assumed independent (e.g., cross-sectional data), temporally ordered data sets (e.g., n = 1 time series), and a mixture of the 2 (e.g., n > 1 time series). In time-series analysis, the GGM can be used to model the residual structure of a vector-autoregression analysis (VAR), also termed graphical VAR. Two network models can then be obtained: a temporal network and a contemporaneous network. When analyzing data from multiple subjects, a GGM can also be formed on the covariance structure of stationary means-the between-subjects network. We discuss the interpretation of these models and propose estimation methods to obtain these networks, which we implement in the R packages graphicalVAR and mlVAR. The methods are showcased in two empirical examples, and simulation studies on these methods are included in the supplementary materials.

How well do network models predict observations? On the importance of predictability in network models.

Network models are an increasingly popular way to abstract complex psychological phenomena. While studying the structure of network models has led to many important insights, little attention has been paid to how well they predict observations. This is despite the fact that predictability is crucial for judging the practical relevance of edges: for instance in clinical practice, predictability of a symptom indicates whether an intervention on that symptom through the symptom network is promising. We close this methodological gap by introducing nodewise predictability, which quantifies how well a given node can be predicted by all other nodes it is connected to in the network. In addition, we provide fully reproducible code examples of how to compute and visualize nodewise predictability both for cross-sectional and time series data.

Mixed scale joint graphical lasso.

We have developed a method for estimating brain networks from fMRI datasets that have not all been measured using the same set of brain regions. Some of the coarse scale regions have been split in smaller subregions. The proposed penalized estimation procedure selects undirected graphical models with similar structures that combine information from several subjects and several coarseness scales. Both within-scale edges and between-scale edges that identify possible connections between a large region and its subregions are estimated.

Life meaning and feelings of ineffectiveness as transdiagnostic factors in eating disorder and comorbid internalizing symptomatology - A combined undirected and causal network approach.

The field of eating disorders is facing problems ranging from a suboptimal classification system to low long-term success rates of treatments. There is evidence supporting a transdiagnostic approach to explain the development and maintenance of eating disorders. Meaning in life has been proposed as a promising key transdiagnostic factor that could potentially not only bridge between the different eating disorder subtypes but also explain frequent co-occurrence with symptoms of comorbid psychopathology, such as anxiety and depression. The present study used self-report data from 501 participants to construct networks of eating disorder and comorbid internalizing symptomatology, including factors related to meaning in life, i.e., presence of life meaning, perceived ineffectiveness, and satisfaction with basic psychological needs. In an undirected network model, it was found that ineffectiveness is a central node, also bridging between eating disorder and other psychological symptoms. A directed network model displayed evidence for a causal effect of presence of life meaning both on the core symptomatology of eating disorders and depressive symptoms via ineffectiveness. These results support the notion of meaning in life and feelings of ineffectiveness as transdiagnostic factors within eating disorder symptomatology in the general population.

How preparation changes the need for top-down control of the basal ganglia when inhibiting premature actions.

Goal-oriented signals from the prefrontal cortex gate the selection of appropriate actions in the basal ganglia. Key nodes within this fronto-basal ganglia action regulation network are increasingly engaged when one anticipates the need to inhibit and override planned actions. Here, we ask how the advance preparation of action plans modulates the need for fronto-subcortical control when a planned action needs to be withdrawn. Functional magnetic resonance imaging data were collected while human participants performed a stop task with cues indicating the likelihood of a stop signal being sounded. Mathematical modeling of go trial responses suggested that participants attained a more cautious response strategy when the probability of a stop signal increased. Effective connectivity analysis indicated that, even in the absence of stop signals, the proactive engagement of the full control network is tailored to the likelihood of stop trial occurrence. Importantly, during actual stop trials, the strength of fronto-subcortical projections was stronger when stopping had to be engaged reactively compared with when it was proactively prepared in advance. These findings suggest that fronto-basal ganglia control is strongest in an unpredictable environment, where the prefrontal cortex plays an important role in the optimization of reactive control. Importantly, these results further indicate that the advance preparation of action plans reduces the need for reactive fronto-basal ganglia communication to gate voluntary actions.

How compliance with behavioural measures during the initial phase of a pandemic develops over time: A longitudinal COVID-19 study.

In this longitudinal research, we adopt a complexity approach to examine the temporal dynamics of variables related to compliance with behavioural measures during the COVID-19 pandemic. Dutch participants (N = 2399) completed surveys with COVID-19-related variables five times over a period of 10 weeks (23 April-30 June 2020). With these data, we estimated within-person COVID-19 attitude networks containing a broad set of psychological variables and their relations. These networks display variables' predictive effects over time between measurements and contemporaneous effects during measurements. Results show (1) bidirectional effects between multiple variables relevant for compliance, forming potential feedback loops, and (2) a positive reinforcing structure between compliance, support for behavioural measures, involvement in the pandemic and vaccination intention. These results can explain why levels of these variables decreased throughout the course of the study. The reinforcing structure points towards potentially amplifying effects of interventions on these variables and might inform processes of polarization. We conclude that adopting a complexity approach might contribute to understanding protective behaviour in the initial phase of pandemics by combining different theoretical models and modelling bidirectional effects between variables. Future research could build upon this research by studying causality with interventions and including additional variables in the networks.

Modeling psychopathology: From data models to formal theories.

Over the past decade, there has been a surge of empirical research investigating mental disorders as complex systems. In this article, we investigate how to best make use of this growing body of empirical research and move the field toward its fundamental aims of explaining, predicting, and controlling psychopathology. We first review the contemporary philosophy of science literature on scientific theories and argue that fully achieving the aims of explanation, prediction, and control requires that we construct formal theories of mental disorders: theories expressed in the language of mathematics or a computational programming language. We then investigate three routes by which one can use empirical findings (i.e., data models) to construct formal theories: (a) using data models themselves as formal theories, (b) using data models to infer formal theories, and (c) comparing empirical data models to theory-implied data models in order to evaluate and refine an existing formal theory. We argue that the third approach is the most promising path forward. We conclude by introducing the abductive formal theory construction (AFTC) framework, informed by both our review of philosophy of science and our methodological investigation. We argue that this approach provides a clear and promising way forward for using empirical research to inform the generation, development, and testing of formal theories both in the domain of psychopathology and in the broader field of psychological science. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

Comparing network structures on three aspects: A permutation test.

Network approaches to psychometric constructs, in which constructs are modeled in terms of interactions between their constituent factors, have rapidly gained popularity in psychology. Applications of such network approaches to various psychological constructs have recently moved from a descriptive stance, in which the goal is to estimate the network structure that pertains to a construct, to a more comparative stance, in which the goal is to compare network structures across populations. However, the statistical tools to do so are lacking. In this article, we present the network comparison test (NCT), which uses resampling-based permutation testing to compare network structures from two independent, cross-sectional data sets on invariance of (a) network structure, (b) edge (connection) strength, and (c) global strength. Performance of NCT is evaluated in simulations that show NCT to perform well in various circumstances for all three tests: The Type I error rate is close to the nominal significance level, and power proves sufficiently high if sample size and difference between networks are substantial. We illustrate NCT by comparing depression symptom networks of males and females. Possible extensions of NCT are discussed. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).

Tailored interventions into broad attitude networks towards the COVID-19 pandemic.

This study examines how broad attitude networks are affected by tailored interventions aimed at variables selected based on their connectiveness with other variables. We first computed a broad attitude network based on a large-scale cross-sectional COVID-19 survey (N = 6,093). Over a period of approximately 10 weeks, participants were invited five times to complete this survey, with the third and fifth wave including interventions aimed at manipulating specific variables in the broad COVID-19 attitude network. Results suggest that targeted interventions that yield relatively strong effects on variables central to a broad attitude network have downstream effects on connected variables, which can be partially explained by the variables the interventions were aimed at. We conclude that broad attitude network structures can reveal important relations between variables that can help to design new interventions.

Functional connectivity analysis of fMRI data using parameterized regions-of-interest.

Connectivity analysis of fMRI data requires correct specification of regions-of-interest (ROIs). Selection of ROIs based on outcomes of a GLM analysis may be hindered by conservativeness of the multiple comparison correction, while selection based on brain anatomy may be biased due to inconsistent structure-to-function mapping. To alleviate these problems we propose a method to define functional ROIs without the need for a stringent multiple comparison correction. We extend a flexible framework for fMRI analysis (Activated Region Fitting, Weeda et al. 2009) to connectivity analysis of fMRI data. This method describes an entire fMRI data volume by regions of activation defined by a limited number of parameters. Therefore a less stringent multiple comparison procedure is required. The regions of activation from this analysis can be directly used to estimate functional connectivity. Simulations show that Activated Region Fitting can recover the connectivity of brain regions. An application to real data of a Go/No-Go experiment highlights the advantages of the method.

The search for causality: A comparison of different techniques for causal inference graphs.

Estimating causal relations between two or more variables is an important topic in psychology. Establishing a causal relation between two variables can help us in answering that question of why something happens. However, using solely observational data are insufficient to get the complete causal picture. The combination of observational and experimental data may give adequate information to properly estimate causal relations. In this study, we consider the conditions where estimating causal relations might work and we show how well different algorithms, namely the Peter and Clark algorithm, the Downward Ranking of Feed-Forward Loops algorithm, the Transitive Reduction for Weighted Signed Digraphs algorithm, the Invariant Causal Prediction (ICP) algorithm and the Hidden Invariant Causal Prediction (HICP) algorithm, determine causal relations in a simulation study. Results showed that the ICP and the HICP algorithms perform best in most simulation conditions. We also apply every algorithm to an empirical example to show the similarities and differences between the algorithms. We believe that the combination of the ICP and the HICP algorithm may be suitable to be used in future research. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2022 APA, all rights reserved).