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Eukaryotes have a multitude of diverse mechanisms for organising and using their genomes, but the histones that make up chromatin are highly conserved. Unusually, histones from kinetoplastids are highly divergent. The structural and functional consequences of this variation are unknown. Here, we have biochemically and structurally characterised nucleosome core particles (NCPs) from the kinetoplastid parasite Trypanosoma brucei. A structure of the T. brucei NCP reveals that global histone architecture is conserved, but specific sequence alterations lead to distinct DNA and protein interaction interfaces. The T. brucei NCP is unstable and has weakened overall DNA binding. However, dramatic changes at the H2A-H2B interface introduce local reinforcement of DNA contacts. The T. brucei acidic patch has altered topology and is refractory to known binders, indicating that the nature of chromatin interactions in T. brucei may be unique. Overall, our results provide a detailed molecular basis for understanding evolutionary divergence in chromatin structure.
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Histonas , Nucleosomas , Trypanosoma brucei brucei , Cromatina/genética , Cromatina/metabolismo , ADN/metabolismo , Histonas/metabolismo , Nucleosomas/genética , Nucleosomas/metabolismo , Trypanosoma brucei brucei/metabolismoRESUMEN
We characterized the spatial distribution of drug-susceptible (DS) and multidrug-resistant (MDR) tuberculosis (TB) cases in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, a major metropolis in southeastern Asia, and explored demographic and socioeconomic factors associated with local TB burden. Hot spots of DS and MDR TB incidence were observed in the central parts of Ho Chi Minh City, and substantial heterogeneity was observed across wards. Positive spatial autocorrelation was observed for both DS TB and MDR TB. Ward-level TB incidence was associated with HIV prevalence and the male proportion of the population. No ward-level demographic and socioeconomic indicators were associated with MDR TB case count relative to total TB case count. Our findings might inform spatially targeted TB control strategies and provide insights for generating hypotheses about the nature of the relationship between DS and MDR TB in Ho Chi Minh City and the wider southeastern region of Asia.
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Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos , Tuberculosis , Masculino , Humanos , Vietnam/epidemiología , Tuberculosis Resistente a Múltiples Medicamentos/epidemiología , Asia , Análisis EspacialRESUMEN
Plasmodium vivax is now the main cause of malaria outside Africa. The gametocytocidal effects of antimalarial drugs are important to reduce malaria transmissibility, particularly in low-transmission settings, but they are not well characterized for P. vivax. The transmission-blocking effects of chloroquine, artesunate, and methylene blue on P. vivax gametocytes were assessed. Blood specimens were collected from patients presenting with vivax malaria, incubated with or without the tested drugs, and then fed to mosquitos from a laboratory-adapted colony of Anopheles dirus (a major malaria vector in Southeast Asia). The effects on oocyst and sporozoite development were analyzed under a multi-level Bayesian model accounting for assay variability and the heterogeneity of mosquito Plasmodium infection. Artesunate and methylene blue, but not chloroquine, exhibited potent transmission-blocking effects. Gametocyte exposures to artesunate and methylene blue reduced the mean oocyst count 469-fold (95% CI: 345 to 650) and 1,438-fold (95% CI: 970 to 2,064), respectively. The corresponding estimates for the sporozoite stage were a 148-fold reduction (95% CI: 61 to 470) and a 536-fold reduction (95% CI: 246 to 1,311) in the mean counts, respectively. In contrast, high chloroquine exposures reduced the mean oocyst count only 1.40-fold (95% CI: 1.20 to 1.64) and the mean sporozoite count 1.34-fold (95% CI: 1.12 to 1.66). This suggests that patients with vivax malaria often remain infectious to anopheline mosquitos after treatment with chloroquine. Use of artemisinin combination therapies or immediate initiation of primaquine radical cure should reduce the transmissibility of P. vivax infections.
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BACKGROUND: Effective antiviral drugs accelerate viral clearance in acute COVID-19 infections; the relationship between accelerating viral clearance and reducing severe clinical outcomes is unclear. METHODS: A systematic review was conducted of randomized controlled trials (RCTs) of antiviral therapies in early symptomatic COVID-19, where viral clearance data were available. Treatment benefit was defined clinically as the relative risk of hospitalization/death during follow-up (≥14â days), and virologically as the SARS-CoV-2 viral clearance rate ratio (VCRR). The VCRR is the ratio of viral clearance rates between the intervention and control arms. The relationship between the clinical and virological treatment effects was assessed by mixed-effects meta-regression. RESULTS: From 57 potentially eligible RCTs, VCRRs were derived for 44 (52â384 participants); 32 had ≥1 clinical endpoint in each arm. Overall, 9.7% (R2) of the variation in clinical benefit was explained by variation in VCRRs with an estimated linear coefficient of -0.92 (95% CI: -1.99 to 0.13; Pâ=â0.08). However, this estimate was highly sensitive to the inclusion of the recent very large PANORAMIC trial. Omitting this outlier, half the variation in clinical benefit (R2â=â50.4%) was explained by variation in VCRRs [slope -1.47 (95% CI -2.43 to -0.51); Pâ=â0.003], i.e. higher VCRRs were associated with an increased clinical benefit. CONCLUSION: Methods of determining viral clearance in COVID-19 studies and the relationship to clinical outcomes vary greatly. As prohibitively large sample sizes are now required to show clinical treatment benefit in antiviral therapeutic assessments, viral clearance is a reasonable surrogate endpoint.
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Antivirales , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , COVID-19 , Progresión de la Enfermedad , SARS-CoV-2 , Humanos , COVID-19/virología , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , SARS-CoV-2/efectos de los fármacos , Ensayos Clínicos Controlados Aleatorios como Asunto , Carga Viral/efectos de los fármacos , Resultado del Tratamiento , HospitalizaciónRESUMEN
In early symptomatic COVID-19 treatment, high dose oral favipiravir did not accelerate viral clearance. BACKGROUND: Favipiravir, an anti-influenza drug, has in vitro antiviral activity against SARS-CoV-2. Clinical trial evidence to date is inconclusive. Favipiravir has been recommended for the treatment of COVID-19 in some countries. METHODS: In a multicentre open-label, randomised, controlled, adaptive platform trial, low-risk adult patients with early symptomatic COVID-19 were randomised to one of ten treatment arms including high dose oral favipiravir (3.6g on day 0 followed by 1.6g daily to complete 7 days treatment) or no study drug. The primary outcome was the rate of viral clearance (derived under a linear mixed-effects model from the daily log10 viral densities in standardised duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates taken daily over 8 days [18 swabs per patient]), assessed in a modified intention-to-treat population (mITT). The safety population included all patients who received at least one dose of the allocated intervention. This ongoing adaptive platform trial was registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05041907) on 13/09/2021. RESULTS: In the final analysis, the mITT population contained data from 114 patients randomised to favipiravir and 126 patients randomised concurrently to no study drug. Under the linear mixed-effects model fitted to all oropharyngeal viral density estimates in the first 8 days from randomisation (4,318 swabs), there was no difference in the rate of viral clearance between patients given favipiravir and patients receiving no study drug; a -1% (95% credible interval: -14 to 14%) difference. High dose favipiravir was well-tolerated. INTERPRETATION: Favipiravir does not accelerate viral clearance in early symptomatic COVID-19. The viral clearance rate estimated from quantitative measurements of oropharyngeal eluate viral densities assesses the antiviral efficacy of drugs in vivo with comparatively few studied patients.
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Amidas , COVID-19 , Pirazinas , Adulto , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , Resultado del Tratamiento , Antivirales/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Uncertainty over the therapeutic benefit of parenteral remdesivir in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has resulted in varying treatment guidelines. METHODS: In a multicenter open-label, controlled, adaptive, pharmacometric platform trial, low-risk adult patients with early symptomatic COVID-19 were randomized to 1 of 8 treatment arms including intravenous remdesivir (200 mg followed by 100 mg daily for 5 days) or no study drug. The primary outcome was the rate of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) clearance (estimated under a linear model fit to the daily log10 viral densities, days 0-7) in standardized duplicate oropharyngeal swab eluates, in a modified intention-to-treat population. This ongoing adaptive trial is registered at ClinicalTrials.gov (NCT05041907). RESULTS: The 2 study arms enrolled 131 patients (remdesivir n = 67, no study drug n = 64) and estimated viral clearance rates from a median of 18 swab samples per patient (a total of 2356 quantitative polymerase chain reactions). Under the linear model, compared with the contemporaneous control arm (no study drug), remdesivir accelerated mean estimated viral clearance by 42% (95% credible interval, 18%-73%). CONCLUSIONS: Parenteral remdesivir accelerates viral clearance in early symptomatic COVID-19. Pharmacometric assessment of therapeutics using the method described can determine in vivo clinical antiviral efficacy rapidly and efficiently.
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COVID-19 , Adulto , Humanos , SARS-CoV-2 , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , Resultado del Tratamiento , AntiviralesRESUMEN
In this Policy Forum article, James A. Watson and colleagues discuss recent guidelines relating to pre-referral treatment of suspected severe malaria with rectal artesunate suppositories in remote areas.
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Antimaláricos , Artemisininas , Malaria , Humanos , Artesunato/uso terapéutico , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Supositorios , Artemisininas/uso terapéutico , Malaria/tratamiento farmacológico , Derivación y ConsultaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine have been proposed as treatments for coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) on the basis of in vitro activity and data from uncontrolled studies and small, randomized trials. METHODS: In this randomized, controlled, open-label platform trial comparing a range of possible treatments with usual care in patients hospitalized with Covid-19, we randomly assigned 1561 patients to receive hydroxychloroquine and 3155 to receive usual care. The primary outcome was 28-day mortality. RESULTS: The enrollment of patients in the hydroxychloroquine group was closed on June 5, 2020, after an interim analysis determined that there was a lack of efficacy. Death within 28 days occurred in 421 patients (27.0%) in the hydroxychloroquine group and in 790 (25.0%) in the usual-care group (rate ratio, 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.97 to 1.23; P = 0.15). Consistent results were seen in all prespecified subgroups of patients. The results suggest that patients in the hydroxychloroquine group were less likely to be discharged from the hospital alive within 28 days than those in the usual-care group (59.6% vs. 62.9%; rate ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.83 to 0.98). Among the patients who were not undergoing mechanical ventilation at baseline, those in the hydroxychloroquine group had a higher frequency of invasive mechanical ventilation or death (30.7% vs. 26.9%; risk ratio, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.03 to 1.27). There was a small numerical excess of cardiac deaths (0.4 percentage points) but no difference in the incidence of new major cardiac arrhythmia among the patients who received hydroxychloroquine. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients hospitalized with Covid-19, those who received hydroxychloroquine did not have a lower incidence of death at 28 days than those who received usual care. (Funded by UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research and others; RECOVERY ISRCTN number, ISRCTN50189673; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04381936.).
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Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/tratamiento farmacológico , Hidroxicloroquina/uso terapéutico , Neumonía Viral/tratamiento farmacológico , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Antivirales/efectos adversos , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Femenino , Hospitalización , Humanos , Hidroxicloroquina/efectos adversos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Respiración Artificial , SARS-CoV-2 , Insuficiencia del Tratamiento , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19RESUMEN
CARAMAL was a large observational study which recorded mortality in children with suspected severe malaria before and after the roll-out of rectal artesunate in Nigeria, Uganda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo. The results of CARAMAL have had a huge impact on public health policy leading to a World Health Organization moratorium on the roll-out of rectal artesunate. The conclusion reported in the abstract uses strong causal language, stating that "pre-referral RAS [rectal artesunate suppositories] had no beneficial effect on child survival". We argue that this causal interpretation of the study results is not justified. Data from the CARAMAL study inform chiefly on the strengths and weaknesses of referral systems in these three countries and do not inform reliably as to the beneficial effect of providing access to a known life-saving treatment.
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Antimaláricos , Artemisininas , Malaria , Niño , Humanos , Preescolar , Artesunato/uso terapéutico , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Artemisininas/uso terapéutico , Malaria/tratamiento farmacológico , Derivación y ConsultaRESUMEN
Genetic surveillance of malaria parasites supports malaria control programmes, treatment guidelines and elimination strategies. Surveillance studies often pose questions about malaria parasite ancestry (e.g. how antimalarial resistance has spread) and employ statistical methods that characterise parasite population structure. Many of the methods used to characterise structure are unsupervised machine learning algorithms which depend on a genetic distance matrix, notably principal coordinates analysis (PCoA) and hierarchical agglomerative clustering (HAC). PCoA and HAC are sensitive to both the definition of genetic distance and algorithmic specification. Importantly, neither algorithm infers malaria parasite ancestry. As such, PCoA and HAC can inform (e.g. via exploratory data visualisation and hypothesis generation), but not answer comprehensively, key questions about malaria parasite ancestry. We illustrate the sensitivity of PCoA and HAC using 393 Plasmodium falciparum whole genome sequences collected from Cambodia and neighbouring regions (where antimalarial resistance has emerged and spread recently) and we provide tentative guidance for the use and interpretation of PCoA and HAC in malaria parasite genetic epidemiology. This guidance includes a call for fully transparent and reproducible analysis pipelines that feature (i) a clearly outlined scientific question; (ii) a clear justification of analytical methods used to answer the scientific question along with discussion of any inferential limitations; (iii) publicly available genetic distance matrices when downstream analyses depend on them; and (iv) sensitivity analyses. To bridge the inferential disconnect between the output of non-inferential unsupervised learning algorithms and the scientific questions of interest, tailor-made statistical models are needed to infer malaria parasite ancestry. In the absence of such models speculative reasoning should feature only as discussion but not as results.
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Genética de Población/estadística & datos numéricos , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Epidemiología Molecular , Plasmodium falciparum/genética , Algoritmos , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Cambodia/epidemiología , Análisis por Conglomerados , Resistencia a Medicamentos/genética , Genotipo , Humanos , Malaria Falciparum/tratamiento farmacológico , Malaria Falciparum/genética , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Plasmodium falciparum/patogenicidad , Aprendizaje Automático no SupervisadoRESUMEN
A consensus methodology for the pharmacometric assessment of candidate SARS-CoV-2 antiviral drugs would be useful for comparing trial results and improving trial design. The time to viral clearance, assessed by serial qPCR of nasopharyngeal swab samples, has been the most widely reported measure of virological response in clinical trials, but it has not been compared formally with other metrics, notably model-based estimates of the rate of viral clearance. We analyzed prospectively gathered viral clearance profiles from 280 infection episodes in vaccinated and unvaccinated individuals. We fitted different phenomenological pharmacodynamic models (single exponential decay, bi-exponential, penalized splines) and found that the clearance rate, estimated from a mixed effects single exponential decay model, is a robust pharmacodynamic summary of viral clearance. The rate of viral clearance, estimated from viral densities during the first week following peak viral load, provides increased statistical power (reduced type 2 error) compared with time to clearance. Antiviral effects approximately equivalent to those with currently used and recommended SARS-CoV-2 antiviral treatments, notably nirmatrelvir and molnupiravir, can be detected from randomized trials with sample sizes of only 35 to 65 patients per arm. We recommend that pharmacometric antiviral assessments should be conducted in early COVID-19 illness with serial qPCR samples taken over 1 week.
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Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19 , SARS-CoV-2 , Antivirales/farmacología , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Humanos , Cinética , Resultado del Tratamiento , Carga ViralRESUMEN
MOTIVATION: Quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR) methods are increasingly used in assisting the process of preclinical, small molecule drug discovery. Regression models are trained on data consisting of a finite-dimensional representation of molecular structures and their corresponding target-specific activities. These supervised learning models can then be used to predict the activity of previously unmeasured novel compounds. RESULTS: This work provides methods that solve three problems in QSAR modelling: (i) a method for comparing the information content between finite-dimensional representations of molecular structures (fingerprints) with respect to the target of interest, (ii) a method that quantifies how the accuracy of the model prediction degrades as a function of the distance between the testing and training data and (iii) a method to adjust for screening dependent selection bias inherent in many training datasets. For example, in the most extreme cases, only compounds which pass an activity-dependent screening threshold are reported. A semi-supervised learning framework combines (ii) and (iii) and can make predictions, which take into account the similarity of the testing compounds to those in the training data and adjust for the reporting selection bias. We illustrate the three methods using publicly available structure-activity data for a large set of compounds reported by GlaxoSmithKline (the Tres Cantos AntiMalarial Set, TCAMS) to inhibit asexual in vitro Plasmodium falciparum growth. AVAILABILITYAND IMPLEMENTATION: https://github.com/owatson/PenalizedPrediction. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Antimaláricos , Plasmodium falciparum , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Descubrimiento de Drogas , Relación Estructura-Actividad Cuantitativa , Aprendizaje Automático SupervisadoRESUMEN
Methaemoglobin results from the oxidation of ferrous to ferric iron in the centre of the haem moiety of haemoglobin. The production of dose-dependent methaemoglobinaemia by 8-aminoquinoline antimalarial drugs appears to be associated with, but is not directly linked to, therapeutic efficacy against latent Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium ovale malarias (radical cure). Iatrogenic methaemoglobinaemia may be a useful pharmacodynamic measure in 8-aminoquinoline drug and dose optimization.
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Antimaláricos , Metahemoglobinemia , Aminoquinolinas/efectos adversos , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Humanos , Metahemoglobinemia/inducido químicamente , Metahemoglobinemia/tratamiento farmacológico , Plasmodium vivaxRESUMEN
Primaquine is the only widely available drug for radical cure of Plasmodium vivax malaria. There is uncertainty whether the pharmacokinetic properties of primaquine are altered significantly in childhood or not. Patients with uncomplicated P. vivax malaria and with normal glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase were randomized to receive either chloroquine (25 mg base/kg of body weight) or dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (dihydroartemisinin at 7 mg/kg and piperaquine at 55 mg/kg) plus primaquine, given either as 0.5 mg base/kg/day for 14 days or 1 mg/kg/day for 7 days. Predose day 7 venous plasma concentrations of chloroquine, desethylchloroquine, piperaquine, primaquine, and carboxyprimaquine were measured. Methemoglobin levels were measured at frequent intervals. Day 7 primaquine and carboxyprimaquine concentrations were available for 641 patients. After adjustment for the milligram-per-kilogram primaquine daily dose, day of sampling, partner drug, and fever clearance, there was a significant nonlinear relationship between age and trough primaquine and carboxyprimaquine concentrations and daily methemoglobin levels. Compared to adults 30 years of age, children 5 years of age had trough primaquine concentrations that were 0.53 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.39 to 0.73)-fold lower, trough carboxyprimaquine concentrations that were 0.45 (95% CI, 0.35 to 0.55)-fold lower, and day 7 methemoglobin levels that were 0.87 (95% CI, 0.58 to 1.27)-fold lower. Increasing plasma concentrations of piperaquine and chloroquine and poor metabolizer CYP 2D6 alleles were associated with higher day 7 primaquine and carboxyprimaquine plasma concentrations. Higher blood methemoglobin concentrations were associated with a lower risk of recurrence. Young children have lower primaquine and carboxyprimaquine exposures and lower levels of methemoglobinemia than adults. Young children may need higher weight-adjusted primaquine doses than adults. (This study has been registered at ClinicalTrials.gov under identifier NCT01640574.).
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Antimaláricos , Malaria Vivax , Adulto , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Niño , Preescolar , Cloroquina/uso terapéutico , Humanos , Malaria Vivax/tratamiento farmacológico , Primaquina/análogos & derivados , Primaquina/uso terapéuticoRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Approximately 6% of children hospitalized with severe falciparum malaria in Africa are also bacteremic. It is therefore recommended that all children with severe malaria should receive broad-spectrum antibiotics in addition to parenteral artesunate. Empirical antibiotics are not recommended currently for adults with severe malaria. METHODS: Blood cultures were performed on sequential prospectively studied adult patients with strictly defined severe falciparum malaria admitted to a single referral center in Vietnam between 1991 and 2003. RESULTS: In 845 Vietnamese adults with severe falciparum malaria admission blood cultures were positive in 9 (1.07%: 95% confidence interval [CI], .37-1.76%); Staphylococcus aureus in 2, Streptococcus pyogenes in 1, Salmonella Typhi in 3, Non-typhoid Salmonella in 1, Klebsiella pneumoniae in 1, and Haemophilus influenzae type b in 1. Bacteremic patients presented usually with a combination of jaundice, acute renal failure, and high malaria parasitemia. Four bacteremic patients died compared with 108 (12.9%) of 836 nonbacteremic severe malaria patients (risk ratio, 3.44; 95% CI, 1.62-7.29). In patients withâ >20% parasitemia the prevalence of concomitant bacteremia was 5.2% (4/76; 95% CI, .2-10.3%) compared with 0.65% (5/769; 0.08-1.2%) in patients withâ <20% parasitemia, a risk ratio of 8.1 (2.2-29.5). CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to children, the prevalence of concomitant bacteremia in adults with severe malaria is low. Administration of empirical antibiotics, in addition to artesunate, is warranted in the small subgroup of patients with very high parasitemias, emphasizing the importance of quantitative blood smear microscopy assessment, but it is not indicated in most adults with severe falciparum malaria.
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Antimaláricos , Artemisininas , Bacteriemia , Malaria Falciparum , Malaria , Adulto , África , Antimaláricos/uso terapéutico , Artemisininas/uso terapéutico , Bacteriemia/complicaciones , Bacteriemia/tratamiento farmacológico , Bacteriemia/epidemiología , Niño , Humanos , Malaria/tratamiento farmacológico , Malaria Falciparum/complicaciones , Malaria Falciparum/tratamiento farmacológico , Malaria Falciparum/epidemiología , Plasmodium falciparum , Vietnam/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
Nicholas White and coauthors discuss chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine pharmacology in the context of possible treatment of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
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Antivirales/farmacocinética , Cloroquina/farmacocinética , Infecciones por Coronavirus/tratamiento farmacológico , Hidroxicloroquina/farmacocinética , Neumonía Viral/tratamiento farmacológico , Antivirales/administración & dosificación , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Cloroquina/administración & dosificación , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Humanos , Hidroxicloroquina/administración & dosificación , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19RESUMEN
MOTIVATION: Artificial intelligence, trained via machine learning (e.g. neural nets, random forests) or computational statistical algorithms (e.g. support vector machines, ridge regression), holds much promise for the improvement of small-molecule drug discovery. However, small-molecule structure-activity data are high dimensional with low signal-to-noise ratios and proper validation of predictive methods is difficult. It is poorly understood which, if any, of the currently available machine learning algorithms will best predict new candidate drugs. RESULTS: The quantile-activity bootstrap is proposed as a new model validation framework using quantile splits on the activity distribution function to construct training and testing sets. In addition, we propose two novel rank-based loss functions which penalize only the out-of-sample predicted ranks of high-activity molecules. The combination of these methods was used to assess the performance of neural nets, random forests, support vector machines (regression) and ridge regression applied to 25 diverse high-quality structure-activity datasets publicly available on ChEMBL. Model validation based on random partitioning of available data favours models that overfit and 'memorize' the training set, namely random forests and deep neural nets. Partitioning based on quantiles of the activity distribution correctly penalizes extrapolation of models onto structurally different molecules outside of the training data. Simpler, traditional statistical methods such as ridge regression can outperform state-of-the-art machine learning methods in this setting. In addition, our new rank-based loss functions give considerably different results from mean squared error highlighting the necessity to define model optimality with respect to the decision task at hand. AVAILABILITY AND IMPLEMENTATION: All software and data are available as Jupyter notebooks found at https://github.com/owatson/QuantileBootstrap. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.
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Descubrimiento de Drogas , Aprendizaje Automático , Programas Informáticos , Máquina de Vectores de SoporteRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Severe falciparum malaria is a medical emergency characterised by potentially lethal vital organ dysfunction. Patient fatality rates even with parenteral artesunate treatment remain high. Despite considerable research into adjuvant therapies targeting organ and tissue dysfunction, none have shown efficacy apart from renal replacement therapy. Understanding the causal contributions of clinical and laboratory abnormalities to mortality is essential for the design and evaluation of novel therapeutic interventions. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used a structural model causal inference approach to investigate causal relationships between epidemiological, laboratory, and clinical variables in patients with severe falciparum malaria enrolled in clinical trials and their in-hospital mortality. Under this causal model, we analysed records from 9,040 hospitalised children (0-12 years, n = 5,635) and adults (n = 3,405, 12-87 years) with severe falciparum malaria from 15 countries in Africa and Asia who were studied prospectively over the past 35 years. On admission, patient covariates associated with increased in-hospital mortality were severity of acidosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.10 for a 7-mEq/L increase in base deficit [95% CI 1.93-2.28]), renal impairment (OR 1.71 for a 2-fold increase in blood urea nitrogen [95% CI 1.58, 1.86]), coma (OR 3.59 [95% CI 3.07-4.21]), seizures (OR 1.40 [95% CI 1.16-1.68]), shock (OR 1.51 [95% CI 1.14-1.99]), and presumed pulmonary oedema (OR 1.58 [95% CI 1.04-2.39]). Lower in-hospital mortality was associated with moderate anaemia (OR 0.87 for a decrease of 10 percentage points in haematocrit [95% CI 0.80-0.95]). Circulating parasite density was not associated with mortality (OR 1.02 for a 6-fold increase [95% CI 0.94-1.11]), so the pathological effects of parasitaemia appear to be mediated entirely by the downstream effects of sequestration. Treatment with an artemisinin derivative decreased mortality compared with quinine (OR 0.64 [95% CI 0.56-0.74]). These estimates were consistent across children and adults (mainly representing African and Asian patients, respectively). Using inverse probability weighting, transfusion was not estimated to be beneficial in children with admission haematocrit values between 15% and 25% (OR 0.99 [95% CI 0.97-1.02]). Except for the effects of artemisinin treatment and transfusion, causal interpretations of these estimates could be biased by unmeasured confounding from severe bacterial sepsis, immunity, and duration of illness. CONCLUSION: These data suggest that moderate anaemia is associated with a reduced risk of death in severe falciparum malaria. This is possibly a direct causal association. The severe anaemia threshold criteria for a definition of severe falciparum malaria should be reconsidered.