Risk of second primary cancer among women in the Kaiser Permanente Breast Cancer Survivors Cohort.

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer survivors are living longer due to early detection and advances in treatment and are at increased risk for second primary cancers. Comprehensive evaluation of second cancer risk among patients treated in recent decades is lacking. METHODS: We identified 16,004 females diagnosed with a first primary stage I-III breast cancer between 1990 and 2016 (followed through 2017) and survived ≥ 1 year at Kaiser Permanente (KP) Colorado, Northwest, and Washington. Second cancer was defined as an invasive primary cancer diagnosed ≥ 12 months after the first primary breast cancer. Second cancer risk was evaluated for all cancers (excluding ipsilateral breast cancer) using standardized incidence ratios (SIRs), and a competing risk approach for cumulative incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for KP center, treatment, age, and year of first cancer diagnosis. RESULTS: Over a median follow-up of 6.2 years, 1,562 women developed second cancer. Breast cancer survivors had a 70% higher risk of any cancer (95%CI = 1.62-1.79) and 45% higher risk of non-breast cancer (95%CI = 1.37-1.54) compared with the general population. SIRs were highest for malignancies of the peritoneum (SIR = 3.44, 95%CI = 1.65-6.33), soft tissue (SIR = 3.32, 95%CI = 2.51-4.30), contralateral breast (SIR = 3.10, 95%CI = 2.82-3.40), and acute myeloid leukemia (SIR = 2.11, 95%CI = 1.18-3.48)/myelodysplastic syndrome (SIR = 3.25, 95%CI = 1.89-5.20). Women also had elevated risks for oral, colon, pancreas, lung, and uterine corpus cancer, melanoma, and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (SIR range = 1.31-1.97). Radiotherapy was associated with increased risk for all second cancers (HR = 1.13, 95%CI = 1.01-1.25) and soft tissue sarcoma (HR = 2.36, 95%CI = 1.17-4.78), chemotherapy with decreased risk for all second cancers (HR = 0.87, 95%CI = 0.78-0.98) and increased myelodysplastic syndrome risk (HR = 3.01, 95%CI = 1.01-8.94), and endocrine therapy with lower contralateral breast cancer risk (HR = 0.48, 95%CI = 0.38-0.60). Approximately 1 in 9 women who survived ≥ 1 year developed second cancer, 1 in 13 developed second non-breast cancer, and 1 in 30 developed contralateral breast cancer by 10 years. Trends in cumulative incidence declined for contralateral breast cancer but not for second non-breast cancers. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated risks of second cancer among breast cancer survivors treated in recent decades suggests that heightened surveillance is warranted and continued efforts to reduce second cancers are needed.

Treatment-related thoracic soft tissue sarcomas in US breast cancer survivors: a retrospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Soft tissue sarcoma is a rare but serious side-effect of radiotherapy to treat breast cancer, and rates are increasing in the USA. We evaluated potential co-factors in two complimentary cohorts of US breast cancer survivors. METHODS: In this retrospective cohort study, we sourced data from the Kaiser Permanente (KP) cohort and the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) 13 registries cohort, both in the USA. The KP cohort included 15 940 women diagnosed with breast cancer from Jan 1, 1990, to Dec 31, 2016, in KP Colorado, KP Northwest (which serves Oregon and Southwest Washington state), or KP Washington, with detailed treatment data and comorbidities (including hypertension and diabetes at or before breast cancer diagnosis) from electronic medical records. The SEER cohort included 457 300 women diagnosed with breast cancer from Jan 1, 1992, to Dec 31, 2016, within the 13 SEER registries across the USA, with initial treatment data (yes vs no or unknown). Eligibility criteria in both cohorts were female breast cancer survivors (stage I-III) aged 20-84 years at diagnosis who had breast cancer surgery, and had survived at least 1 year after breast cancer diagnosis. The outcome of interest was any second thoracic soft tissue sarcoma (angiosarcomas and other subtypes) that developed at least 1 year after breast cancer diagnosis. Risk factors for thoracic soft tissue sarcoma were assessed using multivariable Poisson regression models. FINDINGS: In the KP cohort, median follow-up was 9·3 years (IQR 5·7-13·9) and 19 (0·1%) of 15 940 eligible, evaluable women developed a thoracic soft tissue sarcoma (11 angiosarcomas, eight other subtypes). Most (94·7%; 18 of 19) thoracic soft tissue sarcomas occurred in women treated with radiotherapy; thus, radiotherapy was associated with a significantly increased risk of developing a thoracic soft tissue sarcoma (relative risk [RR] 8·1 [95% CI 1·1-60·4]; p=0·0052), but there was no association with prescribed dose, fractionation, or boost. The RR of angiosarcoma after anthracyclines was 3·6 (95% CI 1·0-13·3; p=0·058). Alkylating agents were associated with an increased risk of developing other sarcomas (RR 7·7 [95% CI 1·2-150·8]; p=0·026). History of hypertension (RR 4·8 [95% CI 1·3-17·6]; p=0·017) and diabetes (5·3 [1·4-20·8]; p=0·036) were each associated with around a five-times increased risk of angiosarcoma. In the SEER cohort, 430 (0·1%) of 457 300 patients had subsequent thoracic soft tissue sarcomas (268 angiosarcomas and 162 other subtypes) after a median follow-up of 8·3 years (IQR 4·3-13·9). Most (77·9%; 335 of 430) cases occurred after radiotherapy; thus, radiotherapy was associated with a significantly increased risk of developing a thoracic soft tissue sarcoma (RR 3·0 [95% CI 2·4-3·8]; p<0·0001) and, for angiosarcomas, the RR for breast-conserving surgery plus radiotherapy versus mastectomy plus radiotherapy was 1·9 (1·1-3·3; p=0·012). By 10 years after radiotherapy, the cumulative incidence of thoracic soft tissue sarcoma was 0·21% (95% CI 0·12-0·34) in the KP cohort and 0·15% (95% CI 0·13-0·17) in SEER. INTERPRETATION: Radiotherapy was the strongest risk factor for thoracic soft tissue sarcoma in both cohorts. This finding, along with the novel findings for diabetes and hypertension as potential risk factors for angiosarcomas, warrant further investigation as potential targets for prevention strategies and increased surveillance. FUNDING: US National Cancer Institute and National Institutes of Health.

Endocrine therapy initiation among women with stage I-III invasive, hormone receptor-positive breast cancer from 2001-2016.

PURPOSE: This retrospective cohort study examined patterns of endocrine therapy initiation over time and by demographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics. METHODS: We included 7777 women from three U.S. integrated healthcare systems diagnosed with incident stage I-III hormone receptor-positive breast cancer between 2001 and 2016. We extracted endocrine therapy from pharmacy dispensings, defining initiation as dispensings within 12 months of diagnosis. Demographic, tumor, and treatment characteristics were collected from electronic health records. Using generalized linear models with a log link and Poisson distribution, we estimated initiation of any endocrine therapy, tamoxifen, and aromatase inhibitors (AI) over time with relative risks (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) adjusted for age, tumor characteristics, diagnosis year, other treatment, and study site. RESULTS: Among women aged 20+ (mean 62 years), 6329 (81.4%) initiated any endocrine therapy, and 1448 (18.6%) did not initiate endocrine therapy. Tamoxifen initiation declined from 67 to 15% between 2001 and 2016. AI initiation increased from 6 to 69% between 2001 and 2016 in women aged ≥ 55 years. The proportion of women who did not initiate endocrine therapy decreased from 19 to 12% between 2002 and 2014 then increased to 17% by 2016. After adjustment, women least likely to initiate endocrine therapy were older (RR = 0.81, 95% CI 0.77-0.85 for age 75+ vs. 55-64), Black (RR = 0.93, 95% CI 0.87-1.00 vs. white), and had stage I disease (RR = 0.88, 95% CI 0.85-0.91 vs. stage III). CONCLUSIONS: Despite an increase in AI use over time, at least one in six eligible women did not initiate endocrine therapy, highlighting opportunities for improving endocrine therapy uptake in breast cancer survivors.

Quantifying cancer risk from exposures to medical imaging in the Risk of Pediatric and Adolescent Cancer Associated with Medical Imaging (RIC) Study: research methods and cohort profile.

PURPOSE: The Risk of Pediatric and Adolescent Cancer Associated with Medical Imaging (RIC) Study is quantifying the association between cumulative radiation exposure from fetal and/or childhood medical imaging and subsequent cancer risk. This manuscript describes the study cohorts and research methods. METHODS: The RIC Study is a longitudinal study of children in two retrospective cohorts from 6 U.S. healthcare systems and from Ontario, Canada over the period 1995-2017. The fetal-exposure cohort includes children whose mothers were enrolled in the healthcare system during their entire pregnancy and followed to age 20. The childhood-exposure cohort includes children born into the system and followed while continuously enrolled. Imaging utilization was determined using administrative data. Computed tomography (CT) parameters were collected to estimate individualized patient organ dosimetry. Organ dose libraries for average exposures were constructed for radiography, fluoroscopy, and angiography, while diagnostic radiopharmaceutical biokinetic models were applied to estimate organ doses received in nuclear medicine procedures. Cancers were ascertained from local and state/provincial cancer registry linkages. RESULTS: The fetal-exposure cohort includes 3,474,000 children among whom 6,606 cancers (2394 leukemias) were diagnosed over 37,659,582 person-years; 0.5% had in utero exposure to CT, 4.0% radiography, 0.5% fluoroscopy, 0.04% angiography, 0.2% nuclear medicine. The childhood-exposure cohort includes 3,724,632 children in whom 6,358 cancers (2,372 leukemias) were diagnosed over 36,190,027 person-years; 5.9% were exposed to CT, 61.1% radiography, 6.0% fluoroscopy, 0.4% angiography, 1.5% nuclear medicine. CONCLUSION: The RIC Study is poised to be the largest study addressing risk of childhood and adolescent cancer associated with ionizing radiation from medical imaging, estimated with individualized patient organ dosimetry.

The Kaiser Permanente Research Bank Cancer Cohort: a collaborative resource to improve cancer care and survivorship.

BACKGROUND: The Kaiser Permanente Research Bank (KPRB) is collecting biospecimens and surveys linked to electronic health records (EHR) from approximately 400,000 adult KP members. Within the KPRB, we developed a Cancer Cohort to address issues related to cancer survival, and to understand how genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors impact cancer treatment, treatment sequelae, and prognosis. We describe the Cancer Cohort design and implementation, describe cohort characteristics after 5 years of enrollment, and discuss future directions. METHODS: Cancer cases are identified using rapid case ascertainment algorithms, linkage to regional or central tumor registries, and direct outreach to KP members with a history of cancer. Enrollment is primarily through email invitation. Participants complete a consent form, survey, and donate a blood or saliva sample. All cancer types are included. RESULTS: As of December 31, 2020, the cohort included 65,225 cases (56% female, 44% male) verified in tumor registries. The largest group was diagnosed between 60 and 69 years of age (31%) and are non-Hispanic White (83%); however, 10,076 (16%) were diagnosed at ages 18-49 years, 4208 (7%) are Hispanic, 3393 (5%) are Asian, and 2389 (4%) are Black. The median survival time is 14 years. Biospecimens are available on 98% of the cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The KPRB Cancer Cohort is designed to improve our understanding of treatment efficacy and factors that contribute to long-term cancer survival. The cohort's diversity - with respect to age, race/ethnicity and geographic location - will facilitate research on factors that contribute to cancer survival disparities.

Positive predictive value and sensitivity of ICD-9-CM codes for identifying pediatric leukemia.

BACKGROUND: To facilitate community-based epidemiologic studies of pediatric leukemia, we validated use of ICD-9-CM diagnosis codes to identify pediatric leukemia cases in electronic medical records of six U.S. integrated health plans from 1996-2015 and evaluated the additional contributions of procedure codes for diagnosis/treatment. PROCEDURES: Subjects (N = 408) were children and adolescents born in the health systems and enrolled for at least 120 days after the date of the first leukemia ICD-9-CM code or tumor registry diagnosis. The gold standard was the health system tumor registry and/or medical record review. We calculated positive predictive value (PPV) and sensitivity by number of ICD-9-CM codes received in the 120-day period following and including the first code. We evaluated whether adding chemotherapy and/or bone marrow biopsy/aspiration procedure codes improved PPV and/or sensitivity. RESULTS: Requiring receipt of one or more codes resulted in 99% sensitivity (95% confidence interval [CI]: 98-100%) but poor PPV (70%; 95% CI: 66-75%). Receipt of two or more codes improved PPV to 90% (95% CI: 86-93%) with 96% sensitivity (95% CI: 93-98%). Requiring at least four codes maximized PPV (95%; 95% CI: 92-98%) without sacrificing sensitivity (93%; 95% CI: 89-95%). Across health plans, PPV for four codes ranged from 84-100% and sensitivity ranged from 83-95%. Including at least one code for a bone marrow procedure or chemotherapy treatment had minimal impact on PPV or sensitivity. CONCLUSIONS: The use of diagnosis codes from the electronic health record has high PPV and sensitivity for identifying leukemia in children and adolescents if more than one code is required.

Changes in Cervical Cytology Results and Human Papillomavirus Types Among Persons Screened for Cervical Cancer, 2007 and 2015-2017.

OBJECTIVES: Since 2006, the US human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination program has led to decreases in HPV infections caused by high-risk vaccine-targeted HPV types (HPV 16/18). We assessed differences in high-risk HPV prevalence by cervical cytology result among 20- to 24-year-old persons participating in routine cervical cancer screening in 2015-2017 compared with 2007. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Residual routine cervical cancer screening specimens were collected from 20- to 24-year-old members of 2 integrated healthcare delivery systems as part of a cross-sectional study and were tested for 37 HPV types. Cytology results and vaccination status (≥1 dose) were extracted from medical records. Cytology categories were normal, atypical squamous cells of undefined significance, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (SIL), or high-grade SIL/atypical squamous cells cannot exclude high-grade SIL. Prevalences of HPV categories (HPV 16/18, HPV 31/33/45/52/58, HPV 35/39/51/56/59/66/68) were estimated by cytology result for 2007 and 2015-2017. RESULTS: Specimens from 2007 (n = 4046) were from unvaccinated participants; 4574 of 8442 specimens (54.2%) from 2015-2017 were from vaccinated participants. Overall, HPV 16/18 positivity was lower in 2015-2017 compared with 2007 in all groups: high-grade SIL/atypical squamous cells cannot exclude high-grade SIL, 16.0% vs 69.2%; low-grade SIL, 5.4% vs 40.1%; atypical squamous cells of undefined significance, 5.0% vs 25.6%; and normal, 1.3% vs 8.1%. Human papillomavirus 31/33/45/52/58 prevalence was stable for all cytology groups; HPV 35/39/51/56/59/66/68 prevalence increased among low-grade SIL specimens (53.9% to 65.2%) but remained stable in other groups. CONCLUSIONS: Prevalence of vaccine-targeted high-risk HPV types 16/18 was dramatically lower in 2015-2017 than 2007 across all cytology result groups while prevalence of other high-risk HPV types was mainly stable, supporting vaccine impact with no evidence of type replacement.

Infiltrating immune cells in benign breast disease and risk of subsequent invasive breast cancer.

BACKGROUND: It is well established that tumors are antigenic and can induce an immune response by the host, entailing lymphocytic infiltration of the tumor and surrounding stroma. The extent and composition of the immune response to the tumor, assessed through evaluation of tumor-infiltrating lymphocyte counts, has been shown in many studies to have prognostic and predictive value for invasive breast cancer, but currently, there is little evidence regarding the association between infiltrating immune cell counts (IICCs) in women with benign breast disease (BBD) and risk of subsequent invasive breast cancer. METHODS: Using a cohort of 15,395 women biopsied for BBD at Kaiser Permanente Northwest, we conducted a nested case-control study in which cases were women who developed a subsequent invasive breast cancer during follow-up and controls were individually matched to cases on age at BBD diagnosis. We assessed IICCs in normal tissue and in the BBD lesions, and we used unconditional logistic regression to estimate the multivariable odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for the associations between IICCs and breast cancer risk. RESULTS: There was no association between the IICC in normal tissue (multivariable OR per 5% increase in IICC = 1.05, 95% CI = 0.96-1.16) or in the BBD lesion (OR per 5% increase in IICC = 1.06, 95% CI = 0.96-1.18) and risk of subsequent invasive breast cancer. Also, there were no associations within subgroups defined by menopausal status, BBD histology, BMI, and history of smoking. CONCLUSION: The results of this study suggest that IICCs in BBD tissue are not associated with altered risk of subsequent invasive breast cancer.

Predicting risk of multiple levels of recurrence and progression after initial diagnosis of nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer in a multisite, community-based cohort.

BACKGROUND: Nonmuscle-invasive bladder cancer (NMIBC) has heterogeneous recurrence and progression outcomes. Available risk calculators estimate recurrence and progression but do not predict the recurrence stage or grade, which may influence downstream treatment. The objective of this study was to predict risk-stratified NMIBC recurrence and progression based on recurrence tumor classification and grade. METHODS: In total, 2956 patients with NMIBC (

Leukemia Risk in a Cohort of 3.9 Million Children with and without Down Syndrome.

OBJECTIVE: To assess leukemia risks among children with Down syndrome in a large, contemporary cohort. STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective cohort study including 3 905 399 children born 1996-2016 in 7 US healthcare systems or Ontario, Canada, and followed from birth to cancer diagnosis, death, age 15 years, disenrollment, or December 30, 2016. Down syndrome was identified using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth and Tenth Revisions, diagnosis codes. Cancer diagnoses were identified through linkages to tumor registries. Incidence and hazard ratios (HRs) of leukemia were estimated for children with Down syndrome and other children adjusting for health system, child's age at diagnosis, birth year, and sex. RESULTS: Leukemia was diagnosed in 124 of 4401 children with Down syndrome and 1941 of 3 900 998 other children. In children with Down syndrome, the cumulative incidence of acute myeloid leukemia (AML) was 1405/100 000 (95% CI 1076-1806) at age 4 years and unchanged at age 14 years. The cumulative incidence of acute lymphoid leukemia in children with Down syndrome was 1059/100 000 (95% CI 755-1451) at age 4 and 1714/100 000 (95% CI 1264-2276) at age 14 years. Children with Down syndrome had a greater risk of AML before age 5 years than other children (HR 399, 95% CI 281-566). Largest HRs were for megakaryoblastic leukemia before age 5 years (HR 1500, 95% CI 555-4070). Children with Down syndrome had a greater risk of acute lymphoid leukemia than other children regardless of age (<5 years: HR 28, 95% CI 20-40, ≥5 years HR 21, 95% CI 12-38). CONCLUSIONS: Down syndrome remains a strong risk factor for childhood leukemia, and associations with AML are stronger than previously reported.

LSD1 activates a lethal prostate cancer gene network independently of its demethylase function.

Medical castration that interferes with androgen receptor (AR) function is the principal treatment for advanced prostate cancer. However, clinical progression is universal, and tumors with AR-independent resistance mechanisms appear to be increasing in frequency. Consequently, there is an urgent need to develop new treatments targeting molecular pathways enriched in lethal prostate cancer. Lysine-specific demethylase 1 (LSD1) is a histone demethylase and an important regulator of gene expression. Here, we show that LSD1 promotes the survival of prostate cancer cells, including those that are castration-resistant, independently of its demethylase function and of the AR. Importantly, this effect is explained in part by activation of a lethal prostate cancer gene network in collaboration with LSD1's binding protein, ZNF217. Finally, that a small-molecule LSD1 inhibitor-SP-2509-blocks important demethylase-independent functions and suppresses castration-resistant prostate cancer cell viability demonstrates the potential of LSD1 inhibition in this disease.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Effectiveness Against HPV Infection: Evaluation of One, Two, and Three Doses.

BACKGROUND: Highly effective human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccines are used in many national programs in 3- or 2-dose schedules. We examined HPV vaccine effectiveness against HPV prevalence by number of doses. METHODS: We collected residual liquid-based cytology samples from US women aged 20-29 years who were screened for cervical cancer. Women continuously enrolled from 2006 through the specimen collection date were analyzed. Specimens were tested using the Linear Array assay. We analyzed prevalence of quadrivalent HPV vaccine (4vHPV) types (HPV 6,11,16,18) and other HPV-type categories and determined prevalence ratios (PRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for 1, 2, and 3 compared with no vaccine doses. RESULTS: Among 4269 women, 1052 (24.6%) were unvaccinated, 2610 (61.1%) received 3 doses, 304 (7.1%) received 2 doses, and 303 (7.1%) received 1 dose. The 4vHPV-type prevalence was 7.4% among unvaccinated women compared with 1.7%, 1.0%, and 1.0% among 1-, 2-, and 3-dose recipients. Among women vaccinated at ≤18 years, adjusted PRs for 1, 2, and 3 doses were 0.06 (95% CI, 0.01-0.42), 0.05 (95% CI, 0.01-0.39), and 0.06 (95% CI, 0.04-0.12). CONCLUSIONS: Among women who received their first dose at age ≤18, estimated HPV vaccine effectiveness was high regardless of number of doses.

Bariatric Surgery is Associated With Reduced Risk of Breast Cancer in Both Premenopausal and Postmenopausal Women.

OBJECTIVE: This retrospective cohort study examined whether bariatric surgery is associated with reduced risk of breast cancer among pre- and postmenopausal women. BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with increased risk of breast cancer, but the impact of weight loss on breast cancer risk has been difficult to quantify. METHODS: The cohort included obese (body mass index ≥35 kg/m) patients enrolled in an integrated health care delivery system between 2005 and 2012 (with follow-up through 2014). Female bariatric surgery patients (N = 17,998) were matched on body mass index, age, study site, and comorbidity index to 53,889 women with no bariatric surgery. Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine incident breast cancer up to 10 years after bariatric surgery. Pre- and postmenopausal women were examined separately, and further classified by estrogen receptor (ER) status. RESULTS: The analysis included 301 premenopausal and 399 postmenopausal breast cancer cases. In multivariable adjusted models, bariatric surgery was associated with a reduced risk of both premenopausal (HR = 0.72, 95% CI, 0.54-0.94) and postmenopausal (HR = 0.55, 95% CI, 0.42-0.72) breast cancer. Among premenopausal women, the effect of bariatric surgery was more pronounced among ER-negative cases (HR = 0.36, 95% CI, 0.16-0.79). Among postmenopausal women, the effect was more pronounced in ER-positive cases (HR = 0.52, 95% CI, 0.39-0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Bariatric surgery was associated with a reduced risk of breast cancer among severely obese women. These findings have significant public health relevance because the prevalence of obesity continues to rise, and few modifiable breast cancer risk factors have been identified, especially for premenopausal women.

Loss of myoepithelial calponin-1 characterizes high-risk ductal carcinoma in situ cases, which are further stratified by T cell composition.

A hallmark of ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) progression is a loss of the surrounding ductal myoepithelium. However, whether compromise in myoepithelial differentiation, rather than overt cellular loss, can be used to predict the risk of DCIS progression is unknown. Here we address this question utilizing pure and mixed DCIS cases (N = 30) as surrogates for DCIS at low and high risk for progression, respectively. We used multiplex immunohistochemical staining to evaluate the relationship between myoepithelial cell differentiation and lymphoid immune cell types associated with poor prognostic DCIS. Our results show that myoepithelial calponin-1 discriminates between pure and mixed DCIS lesions better than histological subtype, presence of necrosis, or nuclear grade. Additionally, focal loss of myoepithelial cells associated with increased PD-1+CD8+ T cells, which suggests a link between the myoepithelium and immune surveillance. To identify associations between calponin-1 expression and immune response, we performed unsupervised hierarchical clustering of myoepithelial and immune cell biomarkers on 219 DCIS lesions from 30 cases. Notably, the majority of pure (low-risk) DCIS lesions clustered in a high calponin-1, T cell low group, whereas the majority of mixed (high-risk) DCIS lesions clustered in a low calponin-1, T cell high group, specifically with CD8+ and PD-1+CD8+ T cells. However, a subset of pure DCIS lesions had a similar calponin-1 and immune signature as the majority of mixed DCIS lesions, which have low calponin-1 and T cell enrichment-raising the possibility that these pure DCIS lesions might be at a high risk for progression.

Temporal Trends in the Incidence of Anogenital Warts: Impact of Human Papillomavirus Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: Studies in countries with high human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination coverage have demonstrated marked reductions in anogenital wart (AGW) incidence. Our goal was to assess the impact of HPV vaccination in a population with suboptimal coverage by comparing AGW incidence trends in the years before and after vaccine introduction. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective analysis of AGW incidence trends using an ecologic study design among 11- through 39-year-olds enrolled at Kaiser Permanente Northwest. We defined incidence as the proportion of persons who had a new AGW diagnosis for each calendar year in the prevaccine periods (2000 through 2006 for female individuals, 2000 through 2010 for male individuals) and the postvaccine periods (2007 through 2016 for female individuals, 2011 through 2016 for male individuals). We also described cumulative HPV vaccination coverage. RESULTS: The average annual AGW incidence rates in the prevaccine periods were 27.8 per 10,000 in female individuals and 26.9 per 10,000 in male individuals. In the postvaccine periods, AGW incidence rates decreased by 31% (P < 0.001) in female individuals and 10% (P = 0.006) in male individuals; the largest reductions were observed in 15- to 19-year-old female individuals (67%, P < 0.001) and male individuals (45%, P < 0.001). Three dose HPV coverage rates were less than 50% in all age groups and both sexes. CONCLUSIONS: In a population of young adults with moderate HPV vaccination coverage, we observed declines in AGW incidence among both female and male year after the introduction of HPV vaccination. The largest incidence reductions were observed in 15- to 19-year-olds who were most likely to have been vaccinated.

Stem Cell Marker Expression in Early Stage Colorectal Cancer is Associated with Recurrent Intestinal Neoplasia.

BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC) ranks second in cancer deaths worldwide and presents multiple management challenges, one of which is identifying high risk stage II disease that may benefit from adjuvant therapy. Molecular biomarkers, such as ones that identify stem cell activity, could better stratify high-risk cohorts for additional treatment. METHODS: To identify possible biomarkers of high-risk disease in early-stage CRC, a discovery set (n = 66) of advanced-stage tumors were immunostained with antibodies to stemness proteins (CD166, CD44, CD26, and LGR5) and then digitally analyzed. Using a second validation cohort (n = 54) of primary CRC tumors, we analyzed protein and gene expression of CD166 across disease stages, and extended our analyses to CD166-associated genes (LGR5, ASCL2, BMI1, POSTN, and VIM) by qRT-PCR. RESULTS: Stage III and metastatic CRC tumors highly expressed stem cell-associated proteins, CD166, CD44, and LGR5. When evaluated across stages, CD166 protein expression was elevated in advanced-stage compared to early-stage tumors. Notably, a small subset of stage I and II cancers harbored elevated CD166 protein expression, which correlated with development of recurrent cancer or adenomatous polyps. Gene expression analyses of CD166-associated molecules revealed elevated ASCL2 in primary tumors from patients who recurred. CONCLUSIONS: We identified a protein signature prognostic of aggressive disease in early stage CRC. Stem cell-associated protein and gene expression identified a subset of early-stage tumors associated with cancer recurrence and/or subsequent adenoma formation. Signatures for stemness offer promising fingerprints for stratifying early-stage patients at high risk of recurrence.

The effect of multiple recruitment contacts on response rates and patterns of missing data in a survey of bladder cancer survivors 6 months after cystectomy.

PURPOSE: The Bladder Cancer Quality of Life Study collected detailed and sensitive patient-reported outcomes from bladder cancer survivors in the period after bladder removal surgery, when participation in survey research may present a burden. This paper describes the study recruitment methods and examines the response rates and patterns of missing data. METHODS: Detailed surveys focusing on quality of life, healthcare decision-making, and healthcare expenses were mailed to patients 5-7 months after cystectomy. We conducted up to 10 follow-up recruitment calls. We analyzed survey completion rates following each contact in relation to demographic and clinical characteristics, and patterns of missing data across survey content areas. RESULTS: The overall response rate was 71% (n = 269/379). This was consistent across patient clinical characteristics; response rates were significantly higher among patients over age 70 and significantly lower among racial and ethnic minority patients compared to non-Hispanic white patients. Each follow-up contact resulted in marginal survey completion rates of at least 10%. Rates of missing data were low across most content areas, even for potentially sensitive questions. Rates of missing data differed significantly by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. CONCLUSIONS: Despite the effort required to participate in research, this population of cancer survivors showed willingness to share detailed information about quality of life, health care decision-making, and expenses, soon after major cancer surgery. Additional contacts were effective at increasing participation. Response patterns differed by race/ethnicity and other demographic factors. Our data collection methods show that it is feasible to gather detailed patient-reported outcomes during this challenging period.

Bariatric Surgery and the Risk of Cancer in a Large Multisite Cohort.

OBJECTIVE: To determine whether bariatric surgery is associated with a lower risk of cancer. BACKGROUND: Obesity is strongly associated with many types of cancer. Few studies have examined the relationship between bariatric surgery and cancer risk. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective cohort study of patients undergoing bariatric surgery between 2005 and 2012 with follow-up through 2014 using data from a large integrated health insurance and care delivery systems with 5 study sites. The study included 22,198 subjects who had bariatric surgery and 66,427 nonsurgical subjects matched on sex, age, study site, body mass index, and Elixhauser comorbidity index. Multivariable Cox proportional-hazards models were used to examine incident cancer up to 10 years after bariatric surgery compared to the matched nonsurgical patients. RESULTS: After a mean follow-up of 3.5 years, we identified 2543 incident cancers. Patients undergoing bariatric surgery had a 33% lower hazard of developing any cancer during follow-up [hazard ratio (HR) 0.67, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.60, 0.74, P < 0.001) compared with matched patients with severe obesity who did not undergo bariatric surgery, and results were even stronger when the outcome was restricted to obesity-associated cancers (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.51, 0.69, P < 0.001). Among the obesity-associated cancers, the risk of postmenopausal breast cancer (HR 0.58, 95% CI 0.44, 0.77, P < 0.001), colon cancer (HR 0.59, 95% CI 0.36, 0.97, P = 0.04), endometrial cancer (HR 0.50, 95% CI 0.37, 0.67, P < 0.001), and pancreatic cancer (HR 0.46, 95% CI 0.22, 0.97, P = 0.04) was each statistically significantly lower among those who had undergone bariatric surgery compared with matched nonsurgical patients. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, multisite cohort of patients with severe obesity, bariatric surgery was associated with a lower risk of incident cancer, particularly obesity-associated cancers, such as postmenopausal breast cancer, endometrial cancer, and colon cancer. More research is needed to clarify the specific mechanisms through which bariatric surgery lowers cancer risk.

Trends in Use of Medical Imaging in US Health Care Systems and in Ontario, Canada, 2000-2016.

Importance: Medical imaging increased rapidly from 2000 to 2006, but trends in recent years have not been analyzed. Objective: To evaluate recent trends in medical imaging. Design, Setting, and Participants: Retrospective cohort study of patterns of medical imaging between 2000 and 2016 among 16 million to 21 million patients enrolled annually in 7 US integrated and mixed-model insurance health care systems and for individuals receiving care in Ontario, Canada. Exposures: Calendar year and country (United States vs Canada). Main Outcomes and Measures: Use of computed tomography (CT), magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), ultrasound, and nuclear medicine imaging. Annual and relative imaging rates by imaging modality, country, and age (children [<18 years], adults [18-64 years], and older adults [≥65 years]). Results: Overall, 135 774 532 imaging examinations were included; 5 439 874 (4%) in children, 89 635 312 (66%) in adults, and 40 699 346 (30%) in older adults. Among adults and older adults, imaging rates were significantly higher in 2016 vs 2000 for all imaging modalities other than nuclear medicine. For example, among older adults, CT imaging rates were 428 per 1000 person-years in 2016 vs 204 per 1000 in 2000 in US health care systems and 409 per 1000 vs 161 per 1000 in Ontario; for MRI, 139 per 1000 vs 62 per 1000 in the United States and 89 per 1000 vs 13 per 1000 in Ontario; and for ultrasound, 495 per 1000 vs 324 per 1000 in the United States and 580 per 1000 vs 332 per 1000 in Ontario. Annual growth in imaging rates among US adults and older adults slowed over time for CT (from an 11.6% annual percentage increase among adults and 9.5% among older adults in 2000-2006 to 3.7% among adults in 2013-2016 and 5.2% among older adults in 2014-2016) and for MRI (from 11.4% in 2000-2004 in adults and 11.3% in 2000-2005 in older adults to 1.3% in 2007-2016 in adults and 2.2% in 2005-2016 in older adults). Patterns in Ontario were similar. Among children, annual growth for CT stabilized or declined (United States: from 10.1% in 2000-2005 to 0.8% in 2013-2016; Ontario: from 3.3% in 2000-2006 to -5.3% in 2006-2016), but patterns for MRI were similar to adults. Changes in annual growth in ultrasound were smaller among adults and children in the United States and Ontario compared with CT and MRI. Nuclear medicine imaging declined in adults and children after 2006. Conclusions and Relevance: From 2000 to 2016 in 7 US integrated and mixed-model health care systems and in Ontario, rates of CT and MRI use continued to increase among adults, but at a slower pace in more recent years. In children, imaging rates continued to increase except for CT, which stabilized or declined in more recent periods. Whether the observed imaging utilization was appropriate or was associated with improved patient outcomes is unknown.

Human Papillomavirus Vaccine Effectiveness Against Incident Genital Warts Among Female Health-Plan Enrollees, United States.

We examined the effectiveness of human papillomavirus vaccination by dose number and spacing against incident genital warts in a cohort of 64,517 female health-plan enrollees in the United States during 2006-2012. Eligible recipients were classified into groups by regimen: 0, 1, 2 (<6 months apart), 2 (≥6 months apart), or 3 doses. They were followed until a genital wart diagnosis, loss to follow-up, or the end of study. Propensity score weights were used to balance baseline differences across groups. To account for latent genital warts before vaccination, we applied 6- and 12-month buffer periods from last and first vaccine dose, respectively. Incidence rates and hazard ratios were calculated using Poisson regression and Cox models. The propensity score-weighted incidence rate per 100,000 person-years was 762 among unvaccinated participants. Using 6- and 12-month buffer periods, respectively, incidence rates were 641 and 257 for 1 dose, 760 and 577 for the 2-dose (<6-month interval) regimen, 313 and 194 for the 2-dose (≥6-month interval) regimen, and 199 and 162 among 3-dose vaccinees; vaccine effectiveness was 68% and 76% for the 2-dose (≥6-month interval) regimen and 77% and 80% in 3-dose vaccinees compared with unvaccinated participants. Vaccine effectiveness was not significant among vaccinees receiving 1-dose and 2-dose (<6-month interval) regimens compared with unvaccinated participants. Our findings contribute to a better understanding of the real-world effectiveness of HPV vaccination.