Fracture Risk and Health Profiles Differ According to Relationship Status: Findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

Registry studies have suggested associations between relationship status and fracture risk. We considered associations between relationship status and incident fracture in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, comprising community-dwelling older adults, and explored associations between socioeconomic and lifestyle factors with relationship status. 2997 participants completed a baseline questionnaire (1998-2004) and clinic visit. Participants were followed up until December 2018 using Hospital Episode Statistics, which report clinical outcomes using codes from the 10th revision of the International Classification of Diseases (ICD-10); these codes were used to ascertain incident fractures. Relationship status (not currently married/cohabiting vs currently married/cohabiting) at baseline was examined in relation to incident fracture using Cox regression. Associations between baseline characteristics and relationship status were examined using logistic regression. Mean baseline age was 66.2 years. 80% were married/cohabiting at baseline; 15% had an incident fracture (mean (SD) follow-up duration: 14.4 (4.5) years). The following were related to greater likelihood of not being married/cohabiting: older age (women only); higher BMI (women only); current smoking; high alcohol consumption (men only); poorer diet quality (men only); lower physical activity; leaving school before age 15 (women only); and not owning one's home. Those not married/cohabiting had greater risk of incident fracture compared to those who were (age-adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI) 1.58 (1.06, 2.38) among men, 1.35 (1.06, 1.72) among women); associations were attenuated after accounting for the above factors associated with relationship status in the corresponding sex. This suggests that differences in health profiles and lifestyle according to relationship status may explain the association between relationship status and fracture risk.

General self-efficacy, not musculoskeletal health, was associated with social isolation and loneliness in older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Social isolation and loneliness are prevalent among older adults. This study investigated factors influencing worsening social isolation and loneliness in community-dwelling older adults during the COVID-19 pandemic, focusing on musculoskeletal conditions, falls, and fractures. METHODS: We studied 153 participants from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. Baseline assessments (2019-20) included osteoporosis, clinical osteoarthritis, fractures after age 45 years, falls in previous year, and lifestyle factors. Self-efficacy was assessed using a shortened General Self-Efficacy Scale. Social isolation was assessed using the 6-item Lubben Social Network Scale. Follow-up (2020-21) assessments included social isolation and loneliness using the 6-item De Jong-Gierveld scale for emotional, social, and overall loneliness. RESULTS: Baseline median age was 83.1 years. A history of smoking predicted worsening social isolation (p = 0.046). Being married (p = 0.026) and higher self-efficacy scores (p = 0.03) predicted reduced social isolation at follow-up. Greater alcohol consumption was associated with higher overall loneliness (p = 0.026). Being married was related to a 36% (95% CI: 3%, 58%) reduction in emotional loneliness (p = 0.037). No musculoskeletal condition was associated with social isolation or loneliness. However, we observed a 22% (14%, 30%; p < 0.001) reduction in emotional loneliness and a 12% (4%, 20%; p = 0.003) reduction in overall loneliness per unit increase in self-efficacy score. CONCLUSIONS: No musculoskeletal condition was associated with increased social isolation or loneliness, but longitudinal studies in larger samples are required. Greater self-efficacy was associated with reduced social isolation and reduced loneliness. Interventions promoting self-efficacy in older adults may reduce isolation and loneliness in this age group.

Predictive value of sarcopenia components for all-cause mortality: findings from population-based cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Low grip strength and gait speed are associated with mortality. However, investigation of the additional mortality risk explained by these measures, over and above other factors, is limited. AIM: We examined whether grip strength and gait speed improve discriminative capacity for mortality over and above more readily obtainable clinical risk factors. METHODS: Participants from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study, Osteoporotic Fractures in Men Study, and the Hertfordshire Cohort Study were analysed. Appendicular lean mass (ALM) was ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and usual gait speed over 2.4-6 m. Verified deaths were recorded. Associations between sarcopenia components and mortality were examined using Cox regression with cohort as a random effect; discriminative capacity was assessed using Harrell's Concordance Index (C-index). RESULTS: Mean (SD) age of participants (n = 8362) was 73.8(5.1) years; 5231(62.6%) died during a median follow-up time of 13.3 years. Grip strength (hazard ratio (95% CI) per SD decrease: 1.14 (1.10,1.19)) and gait speed (1.21 (1.17,1.26)), but not ALM index (1.01 (0.95,1.06)), were associated with mortality in mutually-adjusted models after accounting for age, sex, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, physical activity, ethnicity, education, history of fractures and falls, femoral neck bone mineral density (BMD), self-rated health, cognitive function and number of comorbidities. However, a model containing only age and sex as exposures gave a C-index (95% CI) of 0.65(0.64,0.66), which only increased to 0.67(0.67,0.68) after inclusion of grip strength and gait speed. CONCLUSIONS: Grip strength and gait speed may generate only modest adjunctive risk information for mortality compared with other more readily obtainable risk factors.

Investigating the relationship between self-perception of fracture risk and prior fracture: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Self-perceived risk of fracture (SPR) is associated with fracture independent of FRAX calculated risk. To understand this better we considered whether lifestyle factors not included in the FRAX algorithm and psychosocial factors (social isolation, self-efficacy, or mental health status) explain the relationship between SPR and fracture. METHODS: We studied 146 UK community-dwelling older adults from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. SPR ranked as 'lower', 'similar' and 'higher' relative to others of the same age, was assessed by questionnaire. Social isolation was assessed using the six-item Lubben Social Network Scale; self-efficacy was assessed using a shortened General Self-Efficacy Scale (GSE); mental health status was assessed using the anxiety/depression item from the EuroQoL questionnaire. SPR in relation to previous self-reported fracture was examined using logistic regression. RESULTS: Among participants of median age 83.4 (IQR 81.5-85.5) years, SPR was lower for 54.1% of participants, similar for 30.8%, and higher for 15.1%; 74.7% reported no previous fractures. Greater SPR was associated with increased odds of previous fractures when adjusting for sex and age only (OR 1.72, 95% CI 1.03-2.87, per higher band of SPR). While further individual adjustment for social isolation (1.73, 1.04-2.89), self-efficacy (1.71, 1.02-2.85), or mental health (1.77, 1.06-2.97) did not attenuate the relationship, individual adjustment for diet quality and number of comorbidities did. CONCLUSIONS: Adjustment for social isolation, self-efficacy or mental health status did not attenuate the relationship between SPR and fracture. By contrast, lifestyle factors not included in FRAX, such as diet quality, did attenuate relationships, suggesting a possible future area of investigation.

Hospital admissions and mortality over 20 years in community-dwelling older people: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Demographic changes worldwide are leading to pressures on health services, with hospital admissions representing an important contributor. Here, we report admission types experienced by older people and examine baseline risk factors for subsequent admission/death, from the community-based Hertfordshire Cohort Study. METHODS: 2997 participants (1418 women) completed a baseline questionnaire and clinic visit to characterize their health. Participants were followed up from baseline (1998-2004, aged 59-73 years) until December 2018 using UK Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, which report clinical outcomes using ICD-10 coding. Baseline characteristics in relation to the risk of admission/death during follow-up were examined using sex-stratified univariate logistic regression. RESULTS: During follow-up, 36% of men and 26% of women died and 93% of men and 92% of women had at least one hospital admission; 6% of men and 7% of women had no admissions and were alive at end of follow-up. The most common types of admission during follow-up were cardiovascular (ever experienced: men 71%, women 68%) and respiratory (men 40%, women 34%). In both sexes, baseline risk factors that were associated (p < 0.05) with admission/death during follow-up were older age, poorer SF-36 physical function, and poorer self-rated health. In men, manual social class and a history of smoking, and in women, higher BMI, not owning one's home, and a minor trauma fracture since age 45, were also risk factors for admission/death. CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic factors were related to increased risk of admission/death but a small proportion experienced no admissions during this period, suggesting that healthy ageing is achievable.

Machine learning as an adjunct to expert observation in classification of radiographic knee osteoarthritis: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Osteoarthritis is the most prevalent type of arthritis. Many approaches exist for characterising radiographic knee OA, including machine learning (ML). AIMS: To examine Kellgren and Lawrence (K&L) scores from ML and expert observation, minimum joint space and osteophyte in relation to pain and function. METHODS: Participants from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study, comprising individuals born in Hertfordshire from 1931 to 1939, were analysed. Radiographs were assessed by clinicians and ML (convolutional neural networks) for K&L scoring. Medial minimum joint space and osteophyte area were ascertained using the knee OA computer-aided diagnosis (KOACAD) program. The Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC) was administered. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was implemented for minimum joint space, osteophyte, and observer- and ML-derived K&L scores in relation to pain (WOMAC pain score > 0) and impaired function (WOMAC function score > 0). RESULTS: 359 participants (aged 71-80) were analysed. Among both sexes, discriminative capacity regarding pain and function was fairly high for observer-derived K&L scores [area under curve (AUC): 0.65 (95% CI 0.57, 0.72) to 0.70 (0.63, 0.77)]; results were similar among women for ML-derived K&L scores. Discriminative capacity was moderate among men for minimum joint space in relation to pain [0.60 (0.51, 0.67)] and function [0.62 (0.54, 0.69)]. AUC < 0.60 for other sex-specific associations. DISCUSSION: Observer-derived K&L scores had higher discriminative capacity regarding pain and function compared to minimum joint space and osteophyte. Among women, discriminative capacity was similar for observer- and ML-derived K&L scores. CONCLUSION: ML as an adjunct to expert observation for K&L scoring may be beneficial due to the efficiency and objectivity of ML.

Do lifestyle, anthropometric and demographic factors associated with muscle strength differ in a UK and Japanese cohort? An exploratory analysis.

BACKGROUND: Muscle weakness is associated with adverse clinical outcomes including disability and mortality. We report demographic, anthropometric and lifestyle correlates of grip strength in UK and Japanese population-based cohorts. AIM: To report prevalence of low grip strength according to 2019 European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP2) and 2019 Asian Working Group for Sarcopenia (AWGS 2019) thresholds and to consider correlates of grip strength in Eastern and Western populations. METHODS: UK (1572 men; 1415 women) and Japanese (519 men; 1027 women) participants were recruited from two cohorts harmonised by consensus. Muscle strength was measured by grip strength dynamometry. Potential correlates of grip strength were examined using sex-stratified linear regression; univariate correlates (p < 0.05) were included in mutually adjusted models. RESULTS: Mean (SD) age was 66.2 (2.8) and 65.8 (12.3) in UK and Japanese cohorts, respectively. Prevalence of low grip strength was higher in Japanese participants (EWGSOP2 5.4% versus 2.4%, AWGS 2019 9.0% versus 3.7%). In both cohorts and sexes, univariate correlates of lower grip strength were older age, shorter height, not consuming alcohol, leaving education earlier and greater comorbidity. Apart from older age and shorter height, the only factors related to lower grip strength in mutually adjusted analyses were greater comorbidity among UK participants (kg difference in grip strength (95%CI) per additional comorbidity - 0.60(- 0.98, - 0.21) among men and - 0.50(- 0.86, - 0.13) among women) and not consuming alcohol among Japanese men (- 1.33(- 2.51, - 0.15)). DISCUSSION: Correlates of muscle strength were similar in both cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: A global approach to age-related muscle weakness prevention may be appropriate.

Relationships Between Muscle Parameters and History of Falls and Fractures in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study: Do All Muscle Components Relate Equally to Clinical Outcomes?

In previous work, relationships between muscle and bone size and strength have been demonstrated and were stronger in females, suggesting possible sexual dimorphism. Here we examine sex-specific associations between individual muscle sarcopenia components with clinical outcomes (falls and fractures). 641 participants were recruited. Muscle mass was assessed as cross-sectional area (CSA) by peripheral quantitative computed tomography of the calf, grip strength (GpS) by Jamar dynamometry and function by gait speed (GtS). Falls and fractures were self-reported. Ordinal and logistic regression were used to examine the associations between muscle measurements and outcomes with and without adjustment for confounders. Mean (SD) age was 69.3 (2.6) years. CSA, GpS, and GtS were greater among males (p < 0.002). A higher proportion of females had fallen since age 45 (61.3% vs 40.2%, p < 0.001); in the last year (19.9% vs 14.1%, p = 0.053); and reported a previous fracture since age 45 (21.8% vs 18.5%, p = 0.302), than males. Among females, greater CSA was related to reduced risk of falling and fewer falls in the previous year in fully adjusted analysis only (p < 0.05); higher GpS was related to lower risk of falls since age 45 in unadjusted analysis (p = 0.045) and lower risk of fracture since age 45 in both unadjusted and fully adjusted analysis (p < 0.045). No statistically significant associations were observed for GtS among either sex for any relationships between muscle measurements and clinical outcomes studied. We observed relationships between muscle mass and strength but not function with falls and fractures in females only; further longitudinal studies are required to reproduce these results.

Relationships Between Level and Change in Sarcopenia and Other Body Composition Components and Adverse Health Outcomes: Findings from the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study.

We investigated how baseline values and rates of decline in components of sarcopenia and other body composition parameters relate to adverse clinical outcomes using the Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study. 2689 participants aged 70-79 years were studied. Appendicular lean mass, whole body fat mass, and total hip BMD were ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and muscle function by gait speed. Baseline values and 2-3 year conditional changes (independent of baseline) in each characteristic were examined as predictors of mortality, hospital admission, low trauma fracture, and recurrent falls in the subsequent 10-14 years using Cox regression (generalized estimating equations used for recurrent falls) with adjustment for sex, ethnicity, age, and potential confounders. Lower levels and greater declines in all parameters (excluding hip BMD level) were associated (p < 0.05) with increased rates of mortality; fully-adjusted hazard ratios per SD lower gait speed and grip strength were 1.27 (95% CI 1.19, 1.36) and 1.14 (1.07, 1.21), respectively. Risk factors of hospital admission included lower levels and greater declines in gait speed and grip strength, and greater declines in hip BMD. Lower levels and greater declines in fat mass and hip BMD were associated with low trauma fracture. Lower gait speed, higher fat mass, and both lower levels and greater declines in grip strength were related to recurrent falls. Lower baseline levels and greater declines in musculoskeletal parameters were related to adverse outcomes. Interventions to maximize peak levels in earlier life and reduce rates of age-related decline may reduce the burden of disease in this age group.

Long-term rates of change in musculoskeletal aging and body composition: findings from the Health, Aging and Body Composition Study.

Musculoskeletal disorders are common among older people. Preventive strategies require understanding of age-related changes in strength, function and body composition, including how they interrelate. We have described, and examined associations between, 9-year changes in these parameters among 2917 Health, Aging and Body Composition Study participants (aged 70-79 years). Appendicular lean mass (ALM), whole body fat mass and total hip BMD were ascertained using DXA; muscle strength by grip dynamometry; and muscle function by gait speed. For each characteristic annualised percentage changes were calculated; measures of conditional change (independent of baseline) were derived and their interrelationships were examined using Pearson correlations; proportion of variance at 9-year follow-up explained by baseline level was estimated; and mean trajectories in relation to age were estimated using linear mixed models. Analyses were stratified by sex. Median [lower quartile, upper quartile] annual percentage declines were grip strength (1.5 [0.0, 2.9]), gait speed (2.0 [0.6, 3.7]), ALM (0.7 [0.1, 1.4]), fat mass (0.4 [- 1.1, 1.9]) and hip BMD (0.5 [0.0, 1.1]). Declines were linear for ALM and accelerated over time for other characteristics. Most conditional change measures were positively correlated, most strongly between ALM, fat mass and hip BMD (r > 0.28). Proportion of variation at follow-up explained by baseline was lower for grip strength and gait speed (39-52%) than other characteristics (69-86%). Strength and function declined more rapidly, and were less correlated between baseline and follow-up, than measures of body composition. Therefore, broader intervention strategies to prevent loss of strength and function in later life are required as those targeting body composition alone may be insufficient.

Health Care Costs Associated With Muscle Weakness: A UK Population-Based Estimate.

Sarcopenia and muscle weakness are responsible for considerable health care expenditure but little is known about these costs in the UK. To address this, we estimated the excess economic burden for individuals with muscle weakness regarding the provision of health and social care among 442 men and women (aged 71-80 years) who participated in the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (UK). Muscle weakness, characterised by low grip strength, was defined according to the Foundation for the National Institutes of Health criteria (men < 26 kg, women < 16 kg). Costs associated with primary care consultations and visits, outpatient and inpatient secondary care, medications, and formal (paid) as well as informal care for each participant were calculated. Mean total costs per person and their corresponding components were compared between groups with and without muscle weakness. Prevalence of muscle weakness in the sample was 11%. Mean total annual costs for participants with muscle weakness were £4592 (CI £2962-£6221), with informal care, inpatient secondary care and primary care accounting for the majority of total costs (38%, 23% and 19%, respectively). For participants without muscle weakness, total annual costs were £1885 (CI £1542-£2228) and their three highest cost categories were informal care (26%), primary care (23%) and formal care (20%). Total excess costs associated with muscle weakness were £2707 per person per year, with informal care costs accounting for 46% of this difference. This results in an estimated annual excess cost in the UK of £2.5 billion.

Cluster Analysis of Finite Element Analysis and Bone Microarchitectural Parameters Identifies Phenotypes with High Fracture Risk.

High-resolution peripheral quantitative computed tomography (HRpQCT) is increasingly used for exploring associations between bone microarchitectural and finite element analysis (FEA) parameters and fracture. We hypothesised that combining bone microarchitectural parameters, geometry, BMD and FEA estimates of bone strength from HRpQCT may improve discrimination of fragility fractures. The analysis sample comprised of 359 participants (aged 72-81 years) from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. Fracture history was determined by self-report and vertebral fracture assessment. Participants underwent HRpQCT scans of the distal radius and DXA scans of the proximal femur and lateral spine. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to derive relative risks for the relationship between individual bone microarchitectural and FEA parameters and previous fracture. Cluster analysis of these parameters was then performed to identify phenotypes associated with fracture prevalence. Receiver operating characteristic analysis suggested that bone microarchitectural parameters improved fracture discrimination compared to aBMD alone, whereas further inclusion of FEA parameters resulted in minimal improvements. Cluster analysis (k-means) identified four clusters. The first had lower Young modulus, cortical thickness, cortical volumetric density and Von Mises stresses compared to the wider sample; fracture rates were only significantly greater among women (relative risk [95%CI] compared to lowest risk cluster: 2.55 [1.28, 5.07], p = 0.008). The second cluster in women had greater trabecular separation, lower trabecular volumetric density and lower trabecular load with an increase in fracture rate compared to lowest risk cluster (1.93 [0.98, 3.78], p = 0.057). These findings may help inform intervention strategies for the prevention and management of osteoporosis.

Associations Between Objectively Measured Physical Activity, Body Composition and Sarcopenia: Findings from the Hertfordshire Sarcopenia Study (HSS).

Regular physical activity (PA) is associated with reduced risk of the development and progression of musculoskeletal, metabolic and vascular disease. However, PA declines with age and this can contribute to multiple adverse outcomes. The aims of this study were to describe the relationship between accelerometer-determined PA, body composition and sarcopenia (the loss of muscle mass and function with age). Seven-day PA was measured using the GENEactiv accelerometer among 32 men and 99 women aged 74-84 years who participated in the Hertfordshire Sarcopenia Study. We measured mean daily acceleration and minutes/day spent in non-sedentary and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) levels. Body composition was measured by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry, muscle strength by grip dynamometry and function by gait speed. Sarcopenia was defined according to the EWGSOP diagnostic algorithm. Men and women spent a median (inter-quartile range) of 138.8 (82, 217) and 186 (122, 240) minutes/day engaging in non-sedentary activity but only 14.3 (1.8, 30.2) and 9.5 (2.1, 18.6) min in MVPA, respectively. Higher levels of PA were associated with reduced adiposity, faster walking speed and decreased risk of sarcopenia. For example, a standard deviation (SD) increase in mean daily acceleration was associated with an increase in walking speed of 0.25 (95% CI 0.05, 0.45) SDs and a reduction in the risk of sarcopenia of 35% (95% CI 1, 57%) in fully adjusted analyses. PA was not associated with hand grip strength. Community-dwelling older adults in this study were largely sedentary but there was evidence that higher levels of activity were associated with reduced adiposity and improved function. PA at all intensity levels in later life may help maintain physical function and protect against sarcopenia.

Risk factors for incident falls in older men and women: the English longitudinal study of ageing.

BACKGROUND: Falls are a major cause of disability and death in older people, particularly women. Cross-sectional surveys suggest that some risk factors associated with a history of falls may be sex-specific, but whether risk factors for incident falls differ between the sexes is unclear. We investigated whether risk factors for incident falls differ between men and women. METHODS: Participants were 3298 people aged ≥60 who took part in the Waves 4-6 surveys of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing. At Wave 4, they provided information about sociodemographic, lifestyle, behavioural and medical factors and had their physical and cognitive function assessed. Data on incident falls during the four-year follow-up period was collected from them at Waves 5 and 6. Poisson regression with robust variance estimation was used to derive relative risks (RR) for the association between baseline characteristics and incident falls. RESULTS: In multivariable-adjusted models that also controlled for history of falls, older age was the only factor associated with increased risk of incident falls in both sexes. Some factors were only predictive of falls in one sex, namely more depressive symptoms (RR (95% CI) 1.03 (1.01,1.06)), incontinence (1.12 (1.00,1.24)) and never having married in women (1.26 (1.03,1.53)), and greater comorbidity (1.04 (1.00,1.08)), higher levels of pain (1.10 (1.04,1.17) and poorer balance, as indicated by inability to attempt a full-tandem stand, (1.23 (1.04,1.47)) in men. Of these, only the relationships between pain, balance and comorbidity and falls risk differed significantly by sex. CONCLUSIONS: There were some differences between the sexes in risk factors for incident falls. Our observation that associations between pain, balance and comorbidity and incident falls risk varied by sex needs further investigation in other cohorts.

Identification of risk factors for hospital admission using multiple-failure survival models: a toolkit for researchers.

BACKGROUND: The UK population is ageing; improved understanding of risk factors for hospital admission is required. Linkage of the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) with Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) data has created a multiple-failure survival dataset detailing the characteristics of 2,997 individuals at baseline (1998-2004, average age 66 years) and their hospital admissions (regarded as 'failure events') over a 10 year follow-up. Analysis of risk factors using logistic regression or time to first event Cox modelling wastes information as an individual's admissions after their first are disregarded. Sophisticated analysis techniques are established to examine risk factors for admission in such datasets but are not commonly implemented. METHODS: We review analysis techniques for multiple-failure survival datasets (logistic regression; time to first event Cox modelling; and the Andersen and Gill [AG] and Prentice, Williams and Peterson Total Time [PWP-TT] multiple-failure models), outline their implementation in Stata, and compare their results in an analysis of housing tenure (a marker of socioeconomic position) as a risk factor for different types of hospital admission (any; emergency; elective; >7 days). The AG and PWP-TT models include full admissions histories in the analysis of risk factors for admission and account for within-subject correlation of failure times. The PWP-TT model is also stratified on the number of previous failure events, allowing an individual's baseline risk of admission to increase with their number of previous admissions. RESULTS: All models yielded broadly similar results: not owner-occupying one's home was associated with increased risk of hospital admission. Estimated effect sizes were smaller from the PWP-TT model in comparison with other models owing to it having accounted for an increase in risk of admission with number of previous admissions. For example, hazard ratios [HR] from time to first event Cox models were 1.67(95 % CI: 1.36,2.04) and 1.63(95 % CI:1.36,1.95) for not owner-occupying one's home in relation to risk of emergency admission or death among women and men respectively; corresponding HRs from the PWP-TT model were 1.34(95 % CI:1.15,1.56) for women and 1.23(95 % CI:1.07,1.41) for men. CONCLUSION: The PWP-TT model may be implemented using routine statistical software and is recommended for the analysis of multiple-failure survival datasets which detail repeated hospital admissions among older people.

Grip strength among community-dwelling older people predicts hospital admission during the following decade.

BACKGROUND: Lower grip strength on admission to hospital is known to be associated with longer stay, but the link between customary grip and risk of future admission is less clear. OBJECTIVE: To compare grip strength with subsequent risk of hospital admission among community-dwelling older people in a U.K. setting. DESIGN: Cohort study with linked administrative data. SETTING: Hertfordshire, U.K. SUBJECTS: A total of 2,997 community-dwelling men and women aged 59-73 years at baseline. METHODS: The Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) participants completed a baseline assessment between 1998 and 2004, during which grip strength was measured. Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data to March 2010 were linked with the HCS database. Statistical models were used to investigate the association of grip strength with subsequent elective, emergency and long-stay hospitalisation and readmission. RESULTS: There was a statistically significant negative association between grip strength and all classes of admission in women [unadjusted hazard ratio per standard deviation (SD) decrease in grip strength for: any admission/death 1.10 (95% CI: 1.06, 1.14), elective admission/death 1.09 (95% CI: 1.05, 1.13), emergency admission/death 1.21 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.31), long-stay admission/death 1.22 (95% CI: 1.13, 1.32) and unadjusted relative risk per SD decrease in grip strength for 30-day readmission/death 1.30 (95% CI: 1.19, 1.43)]. These associations remained significant after adjustment for potential confounding factors (age, height, weight for height, smoking, alcohol, social class). In men, unadjusted rates for emergency admission/death, long-stay admission/death and readmission/death were significantly associated with grip strength; associations that similarly withstood adjustment. CONCLUSION: This study provides the first evidence that grip strength among community-dwelling men and women in the U.K. is associated with risk of hospital admission over the following decade.

Musculoskeletal health and life-space mobility in older adults: Findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

This study explores the relationship between musculoskeletal conditions of ageing and life-space mobility (LSM) in 1110 community-dwelling older adults from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study. LSM is a novel measure which captures ability to mobilise within the home, locally and more widely. Among men, older age, care receipt, not driving a car, lower wellbeing, and reduced physical function were associated with lower LSM, while in women only driving status and physical function were associated with LSM. Osteoporosis, arthritis, and fractures had no significant associations with LSM in either gender. These findings provide support for sex-specificity in the determinants of LSM and inform novel approaches to improving mobility and health in older age.

Lifecourse correlates of self-rated health and associations with subsequent mortality: findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

Background: Poor self-rated health (SRH) has been shown to predict adverse health outcomes among older people, however these associations have traditionally only been considered at one point in the lifecourse, usually midlife or later. Here we examined lifecourse correlates of SRH in early, mid and later life, relating these to subsequent risk of mortality in a community-dwelling cohort. Methods: 2989 men and women from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study (HCS) were included in this study. The HCS was initially retrospective and linked contemporary health outcome data to early life data available from health ledgers but investigations from baseline (1998-2004, aged 59-73) onwards have been prospective. At baseline, participants completed an initial clinic visit, which included questionnaire assessment of SRH, reported as 'excellent', 'very good', 'good', 'fair', or 'poor'. Socioeconomic, lifestyle, mental health and demographic information was also collected. Deaths were recorded from baseline to 31/12/2018. Baseline characteristics in relation to SRH were examined using sex-stratified ordinal logistic regression; these factors were examined in relation to mortality using sex-stratified Cox regression. Statistically significant exposures were then included in sex-stratified mutually-adjusted models. Results: In mutually-adjusted analysis, numerous contemporaneous correlates of poorer SRH in the seventh decade were identified and included obesity, lower physical activity, greater comorbidity and higher levels of depression among men and women. For example, odds ratios for being in a lower category of SRH were as follows: obese (BMI≥30) vs underweight/healthy (BMI<25) (men 1.60 (1.21, 2.11), women 1.65 (1.25, 2.17)) and per additional system medicated (men 1.62 (1.47, 1.77), women 1.53 (1.41, 1.66)). By contrast, factors earlier in the lifecourse (early growth, age left full-time education) were not associated with SRH in late adulthood. 36% of men and 26% of women died during follow-up. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for mortality per lower category of SRH were 1.22 (1.10,1.36) among men and 1.17 (1.01,1.35) among women after adjustment for age, BMI, smoking, physical activity, diet quality, education, home ownership status, comorbidity level and depression levels, suggesting residual confounding by other unrecorded factors that are related to SRH. Conclusions: Poorer SRH in the seventh decade was a risk factor for mortality. Importantly modifiable adverse health behaviours in the seventh decade, such as low physical activity, were associated with poorer SRH and later mortality after adjustment for socioeconomic factors and comorbidity level. By contrast early growth and education were not related to later SRH. These data suggest that attention to lifestyle in late midlife may be associated with better SRH and subsequent health outcomes, highlighting the value of intervention at this stage of the lifecourse.

Mortality, bone density and grip strength: lessons from the past and hope for the future?

Objectives: Therapeutic advances in the management of osteoporosis and sarcopenia have occurred at different rates over the last 2 decades. Here we examine associations between grip strength and BMD with subsequent all-cause and cause-specific mortality in a UK community-dwelling cohort. Methods: Data from 495 men and 414 women from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study were analysed. Grip strength was assessed by grip dynamometry, femoral neck BMD was ascertained using DXA and deaths were recorded from baseline (1998-2004) until 31 December 2018. Grip strength and BMD in relation to mortality outcomes (all-cause, cardiovascular-related, cancer-related and mortality due to other causes) were examined using Cox regression with adjustment for age and sex. Results: The mean baseline age of participants was 64.3 years (s.d. 2.5) and 65.9 years (s.d. 2.6) in men and women, respectively. Lower grip strength was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality [hazard ratio (HR) 1.30 (95% CI 1.06, 1.58), P = 0.010] and cardiovascular-related mortality [HR 1.75 (95% CI 1.20, 2.55), P = 0.004]. In contrast, BMD was not associated with any of the mortality outcomes (P > 0.1 for all associations). Conclusion: We report strong relationships between grip strength and mortality compared with BMD. We hypothesize that this may reflect better recognition and treatment of low BMD in this cohort.

Could self-reported physical performance help predict individuals at the highest risk of mortality and hospital admission events in clinical practice? Findings from the Hertfordshire Cohort Study.

AIM: To consider how self-reported physical function measures relate to adverse clinical outcomes measured over 20 years of follow-up in a community-dwelling cohort (aged 59-73 at baseline) as compared with hand grip strength, a well-validated predictor of adverse events. BACKGROUND: Recent evidence has emphasized the significant association of physical activity, physical performance, and muscle strength with hospital admissions in older people. However, physical performance tests require staff availability, training, specialized equipment, and space to perform them, often not feasible or realistic in the context of a busy clinical setting. METHODS: In total, 2997 men and women were analyzed. Baseline predictors were measured grip strength (Jamar dynamometer) and the following self-reported measures: physical activity (Dallosso questionnaire); physical function score (SF-36 Health Survey); and walking speed. Participants were followed up from baseline (1998-2004) until December 2018 using UK Hospital Episode Statistics and mortality data, which report clinical outcomes using ICD-10 coding. Predictors in relation to the risk of mortality and hospital admission events were examined using Cox regression with and without adjustment for sociodemographic and lifestyle characteristics. FINDINGS: The mean age at baseline was 65.7 and 66.6 years among men and women, respectively. Over follow-up, 36% of men and 26% of women died, while 93% of men and 92% of women were admitted to hospital at least once. Physical activity, grip strength, SF-36 physical function, and walking speed were all strongly associated with adverse health outcomes in both sex- and fully adjusted analyses; poorer values for each of the predictors were related to greater risk of mortality (all-cause, cardiovascular-related) and any, neurological, cardiovascular, respiratory, any fracture, and falls admissions. SF-36 physical function and grip strength were similarly associated with the adverse health outcomes considered.