Uncertainty and error in SARS-CoV-2 epidemiological parameters inferred from population-level epidemic models.

During the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic, epidemic models have been central to policy-making. Public health responses have been shaped by model-based projections and inferences, especially related to the impact of various non-pharmaceutical interventions. Accompanying this has been increased scrutiny over model performance, model assumptions, and the way that uncertainty is incorporated and presented. Here we consider a population-level model, focusing on how distributions representing host infectiousness and the infection-to-death times are modelled, and particularly on the impact of inferred epidemic characteristics if these distributions are mis-specified. We introduce an SIR-type model with the infected population structured by 'infected age', i.e. the number of days since first being infected, a formulation that enables distributions to be incorporated that are consistent with clinical data. We show that inference based on simpler models without infected age, which implicitly mis-specify these distributions, leads to substantial errors in inferred quantities relevant to policy-making, such as the reproduction number and the impact of interventions. We consider uncertainty quantification via a Bayesian approach, implementing this for both synthetic and real data focusing on UK data in the period 15 Feb-14 Jul 2020, and emphasising circumstances where it is misleading to neglect uncertainty. This manuscript was submitted as part of a theme issue on "Modelling COVID-19 and Preparedness for Future Pandemics".

Empirical Quantification of Predictive Uncertainty Due to Model Discrepancy by Training with an Ensemble of Experimental Designs: An Application to Ion Channel Kinetics.

When using mathematical models to make quantitative predictions for clinical or industrial use, it is important that predictions come with a reliable estimate of their accuracy (uncertainty quantification). Because models of complex biological systems are always large simplifications, model discrepancy arises-models fail to perfectly recapitulate the true data generating process. This presents a particular challenge for making accurate predictions, and especially for accurately quantifying uncertainty in these predictions. Experimentalists and modellers must choose which experimental procedures (protocols) are used to produce data used to train models. We propose to characterise uncertainty owing to model discrepancy with an ensemble of parameter sets, each of which results from training to data from a different protocol. The variability in predictions from this ensemble provides an empirical estimate of predictive uncertainty owing to model discrepancy, even for unseen protocols. We use the example of electrophysiology experiments that investigate the properties of hERG potassium channels. Here, 'information-rich' protocols allow mathematical models to be trained using numerous short experiments performed on the same cell. In this case, we simulate data with one model and fit it with a different (discrepant) one. For any individual experimental protocol, parameter estimates vary little under repeated samples from the assumed additive independent Gaussian noise model. Yet parameter sets arising from the same model applied to different experiments conflict-highlighting model discrepancy. Our methods will help select more suitable ion channel models for future studies, and will be widely applicable to a range of biological modelling problems.

Multi-scale approaches for the simulation of cardiac electrophysiology: I - Sub-cellular and stochastic calcium dynamics from cell to organ.

Computational models of the heart at multiple spatial scales, from sub-cellular nanodomains to the whole-organ, are a powerful tool for the simulation of cardiac electrophysiology. Application of these models has provided remarkable insight into the normal and pathological functioning of the heart. In these two articles, we present methods for modelling cardiac electrophysiology at all of these spatial scales. In part one, presented here, we discuss methods and approaches for modelling sub-cellular calcium dynamics at the whole-cell and organ scales, valuable for modelling excitation-contraction coupling and mechanisms of arrhythmia triggers.

Multi-scale approaches for the simulation of cardiac electrophysiology: II - Tissue-level structure and function.

Computational models of the heart, from cell-level models, through one-, two- and three-dimensional tissue-level simplifications, to biophysically-detailed three-dimensional models of the ventricles, atria or whole heart, allow the simulation of excitation and propagation of this excitation, and have provided remarkable insight into the normal and pathological functioning of the heart. In this article we present equations for modelling cellular excitation (i.e. the cell action potential) from both a phenomenological and a biophysical perspective. Hodgkin-Huxley formalism is discussed, along with the current generation of biophysically-detailed cardiac cell models. Alternative Markovian formulations for modelling ionic currents are also presented. Equations describing propagation of this cellular excitation, through one-, two- and three-dimensional idealised or realistic tissues, are then presented. For all types of model, from cell to tissue, methods for discretisation and integration of the underlying equations are discussed. The article finishes with a discussion of two tissue-level experimental imaging techniques - diffusion tensor magnetic resonance imaging and optical imaging - that can be used to provide data for parameterisation and validation of cell- and tissue-level cardiac models.

Accounting for variability in ion current recordings using a mathematical model of artefacts in voltage-clamp experiments.

Mathematical models of ion channels, which constitute indispensable components of action potential models, are commonly constructed by fitting to whole-cell patch-clamp data. In a previous study, we fitted cell-specific models to hERG1a (Kv11.1) recordings simultaneously measured using an automated high-throughput system, and studied cell-cell variability by inspecting the resulting model parameters. However, the origin of the observed variability was not identified. Here, we study the source of variability by constructing a model that describes not just ion current dynamics, but the entire voltage-clamp experiment. The experimental artefact components of the model include: series resistance, membrane and pipette capacitance, voltage offsets, imperfect compensations made by the amplifier for these phenomena, and leak current. In this model, variability in the observations can be explained by either cell properties, measurement artefacts, or both. Remarkably, by assuming that variability arises exclusively from measurement artefacts, it is possible to explain a larger amount of the observed variability than when assuming cell-specific ion current kinetics. This assumption also leads to a smaller number of model parameters. This result suggests that most of the observed variability in patch-clamp data measured under the same conditions is caused by experimental artefacts, and hence can be compensated for in post-processing by using our model for the patch-clamp experiment. This study has implications for the question of the extent to which cell-cell variability in ion channel kinetics exists, and opens up routes for better correction of artefacts in patch-clamp data. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Considering discrepancy when calibrating a mechanistic electrophysiology model.

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is a vital step in using mathematical models and simulations to take decisions. The field of cardiac simulation has begun to explore and adopt UQ methods to characterize uncertainty in model inputs and how that propagates through to outputs or predictions; examples of this can be seen in the papers of this issue. In this review and perspective piece, we draw attention to an important and under-addressed source of uncertainty in our predictions-that of uncertainty in the model structure or the equations themselves. The difference between imperfect models and reality is termed model discrepancy, and we are often uncertain as to the size and consequences of this discrepancy. Here, we provide two examples of the consequences of discrepancy when calibrating models at the ion channel and action potential scales. Furthermore, we attempt to account for this discrepancy when calibrating and validating an ion channel model using different methods, based on modelling the discrepancy using Gaussian processes and autoregressive-moving-average models, then highlight the advantages and shortcomings of each approach. Finally, suggestions and lines of enquiry for future work are provided. This article is part of the theme issue 'Uncertainty quantification in cardiac and cardiovascular modelling and simulation'.

Investigation of the Role of Myocyte Orientations in Cardiac Arrhythmia Using Image-Based Models.

Cardiac electrical excitation-propagation is influenced by myocyte orientations (cellular organization). Quantitatively understanding this relationship presents a significant research challenge, especially during arrhythmias in which excitation patterns become complex. Tissue-scale simulations of cardiac electrophysiology, incorporating both dynamic action potential behavior and image-based myocardial architecture, provide an approach to investigate three-dimensional (3D) propagation of excitation waves in the heart. In this study, we aimed to assess the importance of natural variation in myocyte orientations on cardiac arrhythmogenesis using 3D tissue electrophysiology simulations. Three anatomical models (i.e., describing myocyte orientations) of healthy rat ventricles-obtained using diffusion tensor imaging at 100 µm resolution-were registered to a single biventricular geometry (i.e., a single cardiac shape), in which the myocyte orientations could be represented by each of the diffusion tensor imaging data sets or by an idealized rule-based description. The Fenton-Karma cellular excitation model was modified to reproduce rat ventricular action potential duration restitution to create reaction-diffusion cardiac electrophysiology models. Over 250 3D simulations were performed to investigate the effects of myocyte orientations on the following: 1) ventricular activation, 2) location-dependent arrhythmia induction via rapid pacing, and 3) dynamics of re-entry averaged over multiple episodes. It was shown that 1) myocyte orientation differences manifested themselves in local activation times, but the influence on total activation time was small; 2) differences in myocyte orientations could critically affect the inducibility and persistence of arrhythmias for specific stimulus-location/cycle-length combinations; and 3) myocyte orientations alone could be an important determinant of scroll wave break, although no significant differences were observed in averaged arrhythmia dynamics between the four myocyte orientation scenarios considered. Our results show that myocyte orientations are an important determinant of arrhythmia inducibility, persistence, and scroll wave break. These findings suggest that where specificity is desired (for example, when predicting location-dependent, patient-specific arrhythmia inducibility), subject-specific myocyte orientations may be important.

Atrial arrhythmogenicity of KCNJ2 mutations in short QT syndrome: Insights from virtual human atria.

Gain-of-function mutations in KCNJ2-encoded Kir2.1 channels underlie variant 3 (SQT3) of the short QT syndrome, which is associated with atrial fibrillation (AF). Using biophysically-detailed human atria computer models, this study investigated the mechanistic link between SQT3 mutations and atrial arrhythmogenesis, and potential ion channel targets for treatment of SQT3. A contemporary model of the human atrial action potential (AP) was modified to recapitulate functional changes in IK1 due to heterozygous and homozygous forms of the D172N and E299V Kir2.1 mutations. Wild-type (WT) and mutant formulations were incorporated into multi-scale homogeneous and heterogeneous tissue models. Effects of mutations on AP duration (APD), conduction velocity (CV), effective refractory period (ERP), tissue excitation threshold and their rate-dependence, as well as the wavelength of re-entry (WL) were quantified. The D172N and E299V Kir2.1 mutations produced distinct effects on IK1 and APD shortening. Both mutations decreased WL for re-entry through a reduction in ERP and CV. Stability of re-entrant excitation waves in 2D and 3D tissue models was mediated by changes to tissue excitability and dispersion of APD in mutation conditions. Combined block of IK1 and IKr was effective in terminating re-entry associated with heterozygous D172N conditions, whereas IKr block alone may be a safer alternative for the E299V mutation. Combined inhibition of IKr and IKur produced a synergistic anti-arrhythmic effect in both forms of SQT3. In conclusion, this study provides mechanistic insights into atrial proarrhythmia with SQT3 Kir2.1 mutations and highlights possible pharmacological strategies for management of SQT3-linked AF.

The impact of uncertainty in hERG binding mechanism on in silico predictions of drug-induced proarrhythmic risk.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Drug-induced reduction of the rapid delayed rectifier potassium current carried by the human Ether-à-go-go-Related Gene (hERG) channel is associated with increased risk of arrhythmias. Recent updates to drug safety regulatory guidelines attempt to capture each drug's hERG binding mechanism by combining in vitro assays with in silico simulations. In this study, we investigate the impact on in silico proarrhythmic risk predictions due to uncertainty in the hERG binding mechanism and physiological hERG current model. EXPERIMENTAL APPROACH: Possible pharmacological binding models were designed for the hERG channel to account for known and postulated small molecule binding mechanisms. After selecting a subset of plausible binding models for each compound through calibration to available voltage-clamp electrophysiology data, we assessed their effects, and the effects of different physiological models, on proarrhythmic risk predictions. KEY RESULTS: For some compounds, multiple binding mechanisms can explain the same data produced under the safety testing guidelines, which results in different inferred binding rates. This can result in substantial uncertainty in the predicted torsade risk, which often spans more than one risk category. By comparison, we found that the effect of a different hERG physiological current model on risk classification was subtle. CONCLUSION AND IMPLICATIONS: The approach developed in this study assesses the impact of uncertainty in hERG binding mechanisms on predictions of drug-induced proarrhythmic risk. For some compounds, these results imply the need for additional binding data to decrease uncertainty in safety-critical applications.

A Parameter Representing Missing Charge Should Be Considered when Calibrating Action Potential Models.

Computational models of the electrical potential across a cell membrane are longstanding and vital tools in electrophysiology research and applications. These models describe how ionic currents, internal fluxes, and buffering interact to determine membrane voltage and form action potentials (APs). Although this relationship is usually expressed as a differential equation, previous studies have shown it can be rewritten in an algebraic form, allowing direct calculation of membrane voltage. Rewriting in this form requires the introduction of a new parameter, called Γ0 in this manuscript, which represents the net concentration of all charges that influence membrane voltage but are not considered in the model. Although several studies have examined the impact of Γ0 on long-term stability and drift in model predictions, there has been little examination of its effects on model predictions, particularly when a model is refit to new data. In this study, we illustrate how Γ0 affects important physiological properties such as action potential duration restitution, and examine the effects of (in)correctly specifying Γ0 during model calibration. We show that, although physiologically plausible, the range of concentrations used in popular models leads to orders of magnitude differences in Γ0, which can lead to very different model predictions. In model calibration, we find that using an incorrect value of Γ0 can lead to biased estimates of the inferred parameters, but that the predictive power of these models can be restored by fitting Γ0 as a separate parameter. These results show the value of making Γ0 explicit in model formulations, as it forces modellers and experimenters to consider the effects of uncertainty and potential discrepancy in initial concentrations upon model predictions.

Ion channel model reduction using manifold boundaries.

Mathematical models of voltage-gated ion channels are used in basic research, industrial and clinical settings. These models range in complexity, but typically contain numerous variables representing the proportion of channels in a given state, and parameters describing the voltage-dependent rates of transition between states. An open problem is selecting the appropriate degree of complexity and structure for an ion channel model given data availability. Here, we simplify a model of the cardiac human Ether-à-go-go related gene (hERG) potassium ion channel, which carries cardiac IKr, using the manifold boundary approximation method (MBAM). The MBAM approximates high-dimensional model-output manifolds by reduced models describing their boundaries, resulting in models with fewer parameters (and often variables). We produced a series of models of reducing complexity starting from an established five-state hERG model with 15 parameters. Models with up to three fewer states and eight fewer parameters were shown to retain much of the predictive capability of the full model and were validated using experimental hERG1a data collected in HEK293 cells at 37°C. The method provides a way to simplify complex models of ion channels that improves parameter identifiability and will aid in future model development.

Electrophysiological characterization of the hERG R56Q LQTS variant and targeted rescue by the activator RPR260243.

Human Ether-à-go-go (hERG) channels contribute to cardiac repolarization, and inherited variants or drug block are associated with long QT syndrome type 2 (LQTS2) and arrhythmia. Therefore, hERG activator compounds present a therapeutic opportunity for targeted treatment of LQTS. However, a limiting concern is over-activation of hERG resurgent current during the action potential and abbreviated repolarization. Activators that slow deactivation gating (type I), such as RPR260243, may enhance repolarizing hERG current during the refractory period, thus ameliorating arrhythmogenicity with reduced early repolarization risk. Here, we show that, at physiological temperature, RPR260243 enhances hERG channel repolarizing currents conducted in the refractory period in response to premature depolarizations. This occurs with little effect on the resurgent hERG current during the action potential. The effects of RPR260243 were particularly evident in LQTS2-associated R56Q mutant channels, whereby RPR260243 restored WT-like repolarizing drive in the early refractory period and diastolic interval, combating attenuated protective currents. In silico kinetic modeling of channel gating predicted little effect of the R56Q mutation on hERG current conducted during the action potential and a reduced repolarizing protection against afterdepolarizations in the refractory period and diastolic interval, particularly at higher pacing rates. These simulations predicted partial rescue from the arrhythmic effects of R56Q by RPR260243 without risk of early repolarization. Our findings demonstrate that the pathogenicity of some hERG variants may result from reduced repolarizing protection during the refractory period and diastolic interval with limited effect on action potential duration, and that the hERG channel activator RPR260243 may provide targeted antiarrhythmic potential in these cases.

Cardiac TdP risk stratification modelling of anti-infective compounds including chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine.

Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ), the hydroxyl derivative of chloroquine (CQ), is widely used in the treatment of rheumatological conditions (systemic lupus erythematosus, rheumatoid arthritis) and is being studied for the treatment and prevention of COVID-19. Here, we investigate through mathematical modelling the safety profile of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infective agents to determine their risk categories for Torsade de Pointes (TdP) arrhythmia. We performed safety modelling with uncertainty quantification using a risk classifier based on the qNet torsade metric score, a measure of the net charge carried by major currents during the action potential under inhibition of multiple ion channels by a compound. Modelling results for HCQ at a maximum free therapeutic plasma concentration (free C max) of approximately 1.2 µM (malaria dosing) indicated it is most likely to be in the high-intermediate-risk category for TdP, whereas CQ at a free C max of approximately 0.7 µM was predicted to most likely lie in the intermediate-risk category. Combining HCQ with the antibacterial moxifloxacin or the anti-malarial halofantrine (HAL) increased the degree of human ventricular action potential duration prolongation at some or all concentrations investigated, and was predicted to increase risk compared to HCQ alone. The combination of HCQ/HAL was predicted to be the riskiest for the free C max values investigated, whereas azithromycin administered individually was predicted to pose the lowest risk. Our simulation approach highlights that the torsadogenic potentials of HCQ, CQ and other QT-prolonging anti-infectives used in COVID-19 prevention and treatment increase with concentration and in combination with other QT-prolonging drugs.

Calibration of ionic and cellular cardiac electrophysiology models.

Cardiac electrophysiology models are among the most mature and well-studied mathematical models of biological systems. This maturity is bringing new challenges as models are being used increasingly to make quantitative rather than qualitative predictions. As such, calibrating the parameters within ion current and action potential (AP) models to experimental data sets is a crucial step in constructing a predictive model. This review highlights some of the fundamental concepts in cardiac model calibration and is intended to be readily understood by computational and mathematical modelers working in other fields of biology. We discuss the classic and latest approaches to calibration in the electrophysiology field, at both the ion channel and cellular AP scales. We end with a discussion of the many challenges that work to date has raised and the need for reproducible descriptions of the calibration process to enable models to be recalibrated to new data sets and built upon for new studies. This article is categorized under: Analytical and Computational Methods > Computational Methods Physiology > Mammalian Physiology in Health and Disease Models of Systems Properties and Processes > Cellular Models.

Mechanistic Insights Into the Reduced Pacemaking Rate of the Rabbit Sinoatrial Node During Postnatal Development: A Simulation Study.

Marked age- and development- related differences have been observed in morphology and characteristics of action potentials (AP) of neonatal and adult sinoatrial node (SAN) cells. These may be attributable to a different set of ion channel interactions between the different ages. However, the underlying mechanism(s) have yet to be elucidated. The objective of this study was to determine the mechanisms underlying different spontaneous APs and heart rate between neonatal and adult SAN cells of the rabbit heart by biophysical modeling approaches. A mathematical model of neonatal rabbit SAN cells was developed by modifying the current densities and/or kinetics of ion channels and transporters in an adult cell model based on available experimental data obtained from neonatal SAN cells. The single cell models were then incorporated into a multi-cellular, two-dimensional model of the intact SAN-atrium to investigate the functional impact of altered ion channels during maturation on pacemaking electrical activities and their conduction at the tissue level. Effects of the neurotransmitter acetylcholine on the pacemaking activities in neonatal cells were also investigated and compared to those in the adult. Our results showed: (1) the differences in ion channel properties between neonatal and adult SAN cells are able to account for differences in their APs and the heart rate, providing mechanistic insight into understanding the reduced pacemaking rate of the rabbit sinoatrial node during postnatal development; (2) in the 2D model of the intact SAN-atria, it was shown that cellular changes during postnatal development impaired pacemaking activity through increasing the activation time and reducing the conduction velocity across the SAN; (3) the neonatal SAN model, with its faster beating rates, showed a greater sensitivity to parasympathetic modulation in response to acetylcholine than did the adult model. These results provide novel insights into the understanding of the cellular mechanisms underlying the differences in the cardiac pacemaking activities of the neonatal and adult SAN.

A nonlinear and time-dependent leak current in the presence of calcium fluoride patch-clamp seal enhancer.

Automated patch-clamp platforms are widely used and vital tools in both academia and industry to enable high-throughput studies such as drug screening. A leak current to ground occurs whenever the seal between a pipette and cell (or internal solution and cell in high-throughput machines) is not perfectly insulated from the bath (extracellular) solution. Over 1 GΩ seal resistance between pipette and bath solutions is commonly used as a quality standard for manual patch work. With automated platforms it can be difficult to obtain such a high seal resistance between the intra- and extra-cellular solutions. One suggested method to alleviate this problem is using an F - containing internal solution together with a Ca 2+ containing external solution - so that a CaF 2 crystal forms when the two solutions meet which 'plugs the holes' to enhance the seal resistance. However, we observed an unexpected nonlinear-in-voltage and time-dependent current using these solutions on an automated patch-clamp platform. We performed manual patch-clamp experiments with the automated patch-clamp solutions, but no biological cell, and observed the same nonlinear time-dependent leak current. The current could be completely removed by washing out F - ions to leave a conventional leak current that was linear and not time-dependent. We therefore conclude fluoride ions interacting with the CaF 2 crystal are the origin of the nonlinear time-dependent leak current. The consequences of such a nonlinear and time-dependent leak current polluting measurements should be considered carefully if it cannot be isolated and subtracted.

Effects of Heart Rate and Ventricular Wall Thickness on Non-invasive Mapping: An in silico Study.

Background: Non-invasive cardiac mapping-also known as Electrocardiographic imaging (ECGi)-is a novel, painless and relatively economic method to map the electrical activation and repolarization patterns of the heart, providing a valuable tool for early identification and diagnosis of conduction abnormalities and arrhythmias. Moreover, the ability to obtain information on cardiac electrical activity non-invasively using ECGi provides the potential for a priori information to guide invasive surgical procedures, improving success rates, and reducing procedure time. Previous studies have shown the influence of clinical variables, such as heart rate, heart size, endocardial wall, and body composition on surface electrocardiogram (ECG) measurements. The influence of clinical variables on the ECG variability has provided information on cardiovascular control and its abnormalities in various pathologies. However, the effects of such clinical variables on the Body Surface Potential (BSP) and ECGi maps have yet to be systematically investigated. Methods: In this study we investigated the effects of heart size, intracardiac thickness, and heart rate on BSP and ECGi maps using a previously-developed 3D electrophysiologically-detailed ventricles-torso model. The inverse solution was solved using the three different Tikhonov regularization methods. Results: Through comparison of multiple measures of error/accuracy on the ECGi reconstructions, our results showed that using different heart geometries to solve the forward and inverse problems produced a larger estimated focal excitation location. An increase of ~2 mm in the Euclidean distance error was observed for an increase in the heart size. However, the estimation of the location of focal activity was still able to be obtained. Similarly, a Euclidean distance increase was observed when the order of regularization was reduced. For the case of activation maps reconstructed at the same ectopic focus location but different heart rates, an increase in the errors and Euclidean distance was observed when the heart rate was increased. Conclusions: Non-invasive cardiac mapping can still provide useful information about cardiac activation patterns for the cases when a different geometry is used for the inverse problem compared to the one used for the forward solution; rapid pacing rates can induce order-dependent errors in the accuracy of reconstruction.

Pharmacotherapeutic Effects of Quinidine on Short QT Syndrome by Using Purkinje-Ventricle Model: A Simulation Study.

AIMS: Short QT syndrome (SQTS) arises due to gene mutations leading to accelerated ventricular repolarization, and increased risk of cardiac arrhythmias and sudden cardiac death (SCD). The SQT1, SQT2 and SQT3 variants of the SQTS result from inherited gain-of-function mutations (e.g. N588K, V307L and D172N, respectively) to potassium channels. However, the effective management of SQTS remains a challenge, and is incompletely understood. In this study, computational modelling was used to investigate pharmacotherapeutic effects of selected class I drug quinidine on SQT1, SQT2 and SQT3 variants. METHODS AND RESULTS: The biophysically-detailed Stewart et al. model of Purkinje fibre cell action potentials and the ten Tusscher et al. model of ventricular cell action potentials were coupled together into a heterogeneous two-dimensional (2D) tissue model. Previously validated IKr, IKs and IK1 channel formulations for SQT1, SQT2 and SQT3 were incorporated in ventricular cell and tissue models. The channel-blocking effects of quinidine on ionic currents were modelled by using Hill coefficient and IC50 values from the literature. At the 10 µM concentration tested in this study, quinidine effectively prolonged the action potential duration (APD) under all the SQT1, SQT2 and SQT3 conditions. In 2D simulations, quinidine prolonged the ventricular repolarization process and prolonged the QT intervals under all SQTS variants conditions. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide a rational basis for the pursuit of pharmacotherapeutic agent quinidine in the treatment of all SQTS variants.

In silico Assessment of Pharmacotherapy for Human Atrial Patho-Electrophysiology Associated With hERG-Linked Short QT Syndrome.

Short QT syndrome variant 1 (SQT1) arises due to gain-of-function mutations to the human Ether-à-go-go-Related Gene (hERG), which encodes the α subunit of channels carrying rapid delayed rectifier potassium current, I Kr. In addition to QT interval shortening and ventricular arrhythmias, SQT1 is associated with increased risk of atrial fibrillation (AF), which is often the only clinical presentation. However, the underlying basis of AF and its pharmacological treatment remain incompletely understood in the context of SQT1. In this study, computational modeling was used to investigate mechanisms of human atrial arrhythmogenesis consequent to a SQT1 mutation, as well as pharmacotherapeutic effects of selected class I drugs-disopyramide, quinidine, and propafenone. A Markov chain formulation describing wild type (WT) and N588K-hERG mutant I Kr was incorporated into a contemporary human atrial action potential (AP) model, which was integrated into one-dimensional (1D) tissue strands, idealized 2D sheets, and a 3D heterogeneous, anatomical human atria model. Multi-channel pharmacological effects of disopyramide, quinidine, and propafenone, including binding kinetics for I Kr/hERG and sodium current, I Na, were considered. Heterozygous and homozygous formulations of the N588K-hERG mutation shortened the AP duration (APD) by 53 and 86 ms, respectively, which abbreviated the effective refractory period (ERP) and excitation wavelength in tissue, increasing the lifespan and dominant frequency (DF) of scroll waves in the 3D anatomical human atria. At the concentrations tested in this study, quinidine most effectively prolonged the APD and ERP in the setting of SQT1, followed by disopyramide and propafenone. In 2D simulations, disopyramide and quinidine promoted re-entry termination by increasing the re-entry wavelength, whereas propafenone induced secondary waves which destabilized the re-entrant circuit. In 3D simulations, the DF of re-entry was reduced in a dose-dependent manner for disopyramide and quinidine, and propafenone to a lesser extent. All of the anti-arrhythmic agents promoted pharmacological conversion, most frequently terminating re-entry in the order quinidine > propafenone = disopyramide. Our findings provide further insight into mechanisms of SQT1-related AF and a rational basis for the pursuit of combined I Kr and I Na block based pharmacological strategies in the treatment of SQT1-linked AF.

Human Atrial Arrhythmogenesis and Sinus Bradycardia in KCNQ1-Linked Short QT Syndrome: Insights From Computational Modelling.

Atrial fibrillation (AF) and sinus bradycardia have been reported in patients with short QT syndrome variant 2 (SQT2), which is underlain by gain-of-function mutations in KCNQ1 encoding the α subunit of channels carrying slow delayed rectifier potassium current, I Ks. However, the mechanism(s) underlying the increased atrial arrhythmogenesis and impaired cardiac pacemaking activity arising from increased I Ks remain unclear. Possible pharmacological interventions of AF in the SQT2 condition also remain to be elucidated. Using computational modelling, we assessed the functional impact of SQT2 mutations on human sinoatrial node (SAN) pacemaking, atrial repolarisation and arrhythmogenesis, and efficacy of the anti-arrhythmic drug quinidine. Markov chain formulations of I Ks describing two KCNQ1 mutations - V141M and V307L - were developed from voltage-clamp experimental data and then incorporated into contemporary action potential (AP) models of human atrial and SAN cells, the former of which were integrated into idealised and anatomically detailed tissue models. Both mutations shortened atrial AP duration (APD) through distinct I Ks 'gain-of-function' mechanisms, whereas SAN pacemaking rate was slowed markedly only by the V141M mutation. Differences in APD restitution steepness influenced re-entry dynamics in tissue - the V141M mutation promoted stationary and stable spiral waves whereas the V307L mutation promoted non-stationary and unstable re-entrant waves. Both mutations shortened tissue excitation wavelength through reduced effective refractory period but not conduction velocity, which served to increase the lifespan of re-entrant excitation in a 3D anatomical human atria model, as well as the dominant frequency (DF), which was higher for the V141M mutation. Quinidine was effective at terminating arrhythmic excitation waves associated with the V307L but not V141M mutation, and reduced the DF in a dose-dependent manner under both mutation conditions. This study provides mechanistic insights into different AF/bradycardia phenotypes in SQT2 and the efficacy of quinidine pharmacotherapy.