Effectiveness and efficiency of immunisation strategies to prevent RSV among infants and older adults in Germany: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Recently, several novel RSV immunisation products that protect infants and older adults against RSV disease have been licensed in Europe. We estimated the effectiveness and efficiency of introducing these RSV immunisation strategies in Germany. METHODS: We used a Bayesian framework to fit a deterministic age-structured dynamic transmission model of RSV to sentinel surveillance and RSV-specific hospitalisation data in Germany from 2015 to 2019. The calibrated model was used to evaluate different RSV intervention strategies over 5 years: long-acting, single-dose monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) in high-risk infants aged 1-5 months; long-acting mAbs in all infants aged 1-5 months; seasonal vaccination of pregnant women and one-time seasonal vaccination of older adults (75 + /65 + /55 + years). We performed sensitivity analysis on vaccine uptake, seasonal vs. year-round maternal vaccination, and the effect of under-ascertainment for older adults. RESULTS: The model was able to match the various RSV datasets. Replacing the current short-acting mAB for high-risk infants with long-acting mAbs prevented 1.1% of RSV-specific hospitalisations in infants per year at the same uptake. Expanding the long-acting mAB programme to all infants prevented 39.3% of infant hospitalisations per year. Maternal vaccination required a larger number to be immunised to prevent one additional hospitalisation than a long-acting mAB for the same uptake. Vaccination of adults older than 75 years at an uptake of 40% in addition to Nirsevimab in all infants prevented an additional 4.5% of all RSV hospitalisations over 5 years, with substantial uncertainty in the correction for under-ascertainment of the RSV burden. CONCLUSIONS: Immunisation has the potential to reduce the RSV disease burden in Germany.

Systematic review of the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of recombinant haemagglutinin seasonal influenza vaccines for the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza in individuals ≥18 years of age.

The most effective means of preventing seasonal influenza is through vaccination. In this systematic review, we investigated the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of recombinant haemagglutinin (HA) seasonal influenza vaccines to prevent laboratory-confirmed influenza. A systematic literature search was conducted in electronic databases and grey literature sources up to 7 February 2020. Randomised controlled trials and non-randomised studies of interventions were eligible for inclusion. The search returned 28,846 records, of which 10 studies on recombinant HA influenza vaccine met our inclusion criteria. One study found that the quadrivalent recombinant HA influenza vaccine had higher relative vaccine efficacy (rVE) in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza during the 2014-15 season compared with traditional quadrivalent vaccination in adults aged ≥50 years (rVE = 30%, 95% CI 10%-47%, moderate-certainty evidence). In a subgroup analysis, higher rVE was reported for influenza A (rVE = 36%, 95% CI 14% to 53%), but not for B (non-significant). Another study reported higher efficacy for the trivalent recombinant HA vaccine compared with placebo (VE = 45%, 95% CI 19-63, 1 RCT, low-certainty evidence) in adults aged 18-55 years. With the exception of a higher rate of chills (RR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.03-1.72), the safety profile of recombinant HA vaccines was comparable to that of traditional influenza vaccines. The evidence base for the efficacy and effectiveness of recombinant HA influenza vaccines is limited at present, although one study found that the quadrivalent recombinant HA influenza vaccine had higher rVE compared with traditional quadrivalent vaccination in adults aged ≥50 years.

Systematic review of the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of high-dose seasonal influenza vaccines for the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza in individuals ≥18 years of age.

This review sought to assess the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of high-dose inactivated influenza vaccines (HD-IIV) for the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza in individuals aged 18 years or older. A systematic literature search was conducted in electronic databases and grey literature sources up to 7 February 2020. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies of interventions (NRSIs) were included. The search returned 28,846 records, of which 36 studies were included. HD-IIV was shown to have higher relative vaccine efficacy in preventing influenza compared with standard-dose influenza vaccines (SD-IIV3) in older adults (Vaccine effectiveness (VE) = 24%, 95% CI 10-37, one RCT). One NRSI demonstrated significant effect for HD-IIV3 against influenza B (VE = 89%, 95% CI 47-100), but not for influenza A(H3N2) (VE = 22%, 95% CI -82 to 66) when compared with no vaccination in older adults. HD-IIV3 showed significant relative effect compared with SD-IIV3 for influenza-related hospitalisation (VE = 11.8%, 95% CI 6.4-17.0, two NRSIs), influenza- or pneumonia-related hospitalisation (VE = 13.7%, 95% CI 9.5-17.7, three NRSIs), influenza-related hospital encounters (VE = 13.1%, 95% CI 8.4-17.7, five NRSIs), and influenza-related office visits (VE = 3.5%, 95% CI 1.5-5.5, two NRSIs). For safety, HD-IIV were associated with significantly higher rates of local and systemic adverse events compared with SD-IIV (combined local reactions, pain at injection site, swelling, induration, headache, chills and malaise). From limited data, compared with SD-IIV, HD-IIV were found to be more effective in the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza, for a range of proxy outcome measures, and associated with more adverse events.

Systematic review of the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of cell-based seasonal influenza vaccines for the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza in individuals ≥18 years of age.

The most effective means of preventing seasonal influenza is through strain-specific vaccination. In this study, we investigated the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of cell-based trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccines. A systematic literature search was conducted in electronic databases and grey literature sources up to 7 February 2020. Randomised controlled trials (RCTs) and non-randomised studies of interventions (NRSIs) were eligible for inclusion. Two reviewers independently screened, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of included studies. Certainty of evidence for key outcomes was assessed using the GRADE methodology. The search returned 28,846 records, of which 868 full-text articles were assessed for relevance. Of these, 19 studies met the inclusion criteria. No relative efficacy data were identified for the direct comparison of cell-based vaccines compared with traditional vaccines (egg-based). Efficacy data were available comparing cell-based trivalent influenza vaccines with placebo in adults (aged 18-49 years). Overall vaccine efficacy was 70% against any influenza subtype (95% CI 61%-77%, two RCTS), 82% against influenza A(H1N1) (95% CI 71%-89%, 2 RCTs), 72% against influenza A(H3N2) (95% CI 39%-87%, 2 RCTs) and 52% against influenza B (95% CI 30%-68%, 2 RCTs). Limited and heterogeneous data were presented for effectiveness when compared with no vaccination. One NRSI compared cell-based trivalent and quadrivalent vaccination with traditional trivalent and quadrivalent vaccination, finding a small but significant difference in favour of cell-based vaccines for influenza-related hospitalisation, hospital encounters and physician office visits. The safety profile of cell-based trivalent vaccines was comparable to traditional trivalent influenza vaccines. Compared with placebo, cell-based trivalent influenza vaccines have demonstrated greater efficacy in adults aged 18-49 years. Overall cell-based vaccines are well-tolerated in adults, however, evidence regarding the effectiveness of these vaccines compared with traditional seasonal influenza vaccines is limited.

Systematic review of the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of MF59® adjuvanted seasonal influenza vaccines for the prevention of laboratory-confirmed influenza in individuals ≥18 years of age.

The most effective means of preventing seasonal influenza is through vaccination. In this systematic review, we investigated the efficacy, effectiveness and safety of MF59® adjuvanted trivalent and quadrivalent influenza vaccines to prevent laboratory-confirmed influenza. A systematic literature search was conducted in electronic databases and grey literature sources up to 7 February 2020. Randomised controlled trials and non-randomised studies of interventions (NRSIs) were eligible for inclusion. The search returned 28,846 records, of which 48 studies on MF59® adjuvanted vaccines met our inclusion criteria. No efficacy trials were identified. In terms of vaccine effectiveness (VE), MF59® adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccines were effective in preventing laboratory-confirmed influenza in older adults (aged ≥65 years) compared with no vaccination (VE = 45%, 95% confidence interval (CI) 23%-61%, 5 NRSIs across 3 influenza seasons). By subtype, significant effect was found for influenza A(H1N1) (VE = 61%, 95% CI 44%-73%) and B (VE = 29%, 95% CI 5%-46%), but not for A(H3N2). In terms of relative VE, there was no significant difference comparing MF59® adjuvanted trivalent vaccines with either non-adjuvanted trivalent or quadrivalent vaccines. Compared with traditional trivalent influenza vaccines, MF59® adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccines were associated with a greater number of local adverse events (RR = 1.90, 95% CI 1.50-2.39) and systemic reactions (RR = 1.18, 95% CI 1.02-1.38). In conclusion, MF59® adjuvanted trivalent influenza vaccines were found to be more effective than 'no vaccination'. Based on limited data, there was no significant difference comparing the effectiveness of MF59® adjuvanted vaccines with their non-adjuvanted counterparts.

Barriers and drivers to COVID-19 vaccination among the migrant and non-migrant population in Germany, 2021.

BACKGROUND: During the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, immunization programmes struggled to reach all population groups equally. While migrant groups face multiple barriers to health systems, including vaccination, little is known about their vaccine uptake. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional telephone survey on adults with and without migration history in Germany to investigate barriers and drivers to COVID-19 vaccination (11 April 2021 to 18 December 2021). Interviews were conducted in six languages. We used logistic regression models and a mediation model to analyze the association between migration history and vaccine uptake. Furthermore, we determined the effect of psychological determinants (5C model) on vaccine uptake. RESULTS: The survey comprised 2039 individuals, including 1015 with migration history. Of these, 448 were interviews conducted in languages other than German. Individuals with migration history had a significantly lower vaccine uptake but, while still unvaccinated, had a higher intention to get vaccinated (P = 0.015) compared with those without migration history. The association between migration history and vaccine uptake was no longer significant when other factors were included in the regression model (odds ratio = 0.9; 95% confidence interval: 0.57-1.47). Socio-economic index, language skills and discrimination experience fully mediated this association. Among the psychological determinants, 'higher confidence' and 'higher collective responsibility' increased the chance of individuals with migration history to be vaccinated. CONCLUSION: Migration history alone cannot explain vaccine uptake; socio-economic index, language skills and discrimination experiences need to be considered. To achieve vaccine equity, future public health policy should aim to reduce relevant barriers through tailored interventions.

Application of the screening method for estimating COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness using routine surveillance data: Germany's experience during the COVID-19 pandemic, July 2021 to March 2023.

The screening method represents a simple, quick, and practical tool for estimating vaccine effectiveness (VE) using routine disease surveillance and vaccine coverage data, even if these data cannot be linked. In Germany, where notification data, laboratory testing data, and vaccine coverage data cannot be linked due to strict data protection requirements, the screening method was used to assess COVID-19 VE continuously between July 2021 and March 2023. During this period, when Delta and Omicron variants circulated, VE estimates were produced in real-time for different age groups and clinical outcomes. Here we describe the country's overall positive experience using the screening method, including its strengths and limitations, and provide practical guidance regarding a few issues, such as case definition stringency, testing behaviour, and data stratification, that require careful consideration during data analysis and the interpretation of the results.

Recovery and sequelae in 523 adults and children with tick-borne encephalitis in Germany.

PURPOSE: Despite being vaccine-preventable, tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) continues to cause considerable morbidity in Germany. Limited insight into potentially debilitating consequences of TBE may partially underly low (~ 20%) TBE vaccine uptake. We aimed to systematically assess TBE sequelae and other consequences. METHODS: Routinely notified TBE patients from 2018 to 2020 from Southern Germany were invited to telephone interviews acutely and again after 18 months. Duration of acute symptoms was prospectively assessed. Recovery was defined as score 0 on the modified RANKIN scale. Determinants of time to recovery were analysed with cox regression, adjusted for covariates identified using directed acyclic graphs, yielding hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). RESULTS: Of 558 cases, 523 (93.7%) completed follow-up. Full recovery was reported by 67.3% (children: 94.9%, adults: 63.8%). Sequelae included fatigue (17.0%), weakness (13.4%), concentration deficit (13.0%), and impaired balance (12.0%). Compared with 18-39-year-olds, recovery rates were 44% lower in ≥ 50-year-olds (HR: 0.56, 95%CI 0.42-0.75) and 79% higher in children (HR: 1.79, 95%CI 1.25-2.56). The recovery rate was 64% lower after severe TBE (compared to mild; HR: 0.36, 95%CI 0.25-0.52) and 22% lower with comorbidities (HR: 0.78, 95%CI 0.62-0.99). Substantial health-care use was reported (90.1% hospitalisation, 39.8% rehabilitation). Of employed cases, 88.4% required sick leave; 10.3% planned/reported premature retirement due to sequelae. CONCLUSION: Half the adult and 5% of paediatric patients reported persisting sequelae after 18 months. Improved prevention could alleviate both individual (morbidity) and societal TBE burden (health-care costs, productivity losses). Insights into sequelae can help guide at-risk populations towards tick-avoidant strategies and encourage TBE vaccination.

Vaccine effectiveness against severe COVID-19 during the Omicron wave in Germany: results from the COViK study.

PURPOSE: COViK, a prospective hospital-based multicenter case-control study in Germany, aims to assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against severe disease. Here, we report vaccine effectiveness (VE) against COVID-19-caused hospitalization and intensive care treatment during the Omicron wave. METHODS: We analyzed data from 276 cases with COVID-19 and 494 control patients recruited in 13 hospitals from 1 December 2021 to 5 September 2022. We calculated crude and confounder-adjusted VE estimates. RESULTS: 21% of cases (57/276) were not vaccinated, compared to 5% of controls (26/494; p < 0.001). Confounder-adjusted VE against COVID-19-caused hospitalization was 55.4% (95% CI: 12-78%), 81.5% (95% CI: 68-90%) and 95.6% (95%CI: 88-99%) after two, three and four vaccine doses, respectively. VE against hospitalization due to COVID-19 remained stable up to one year after three vaccine doses. CONCLUSION: Three vaccine doses remained highly effective in preventing severe disease and this protection was sustained; a fourth dose further increased protection.

Estimating the share of SARS-CoV-2-immunologically naïve individuals in Germany up to June 2022.

After the winter of 2021/2022, the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic had reached a phase where a considerable number of people in Germany have been either infected with a severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, vaccinated or both, the full extent of which was difficult to estimate, however, because infection counts suffer from under-reporting, and the overlap between the vaccinated and recovered subpopulations is unknown. Yet, reliable estimates regarding population-wide susceptibility were of considerable interest: Since both previous infection and vaccination reduce the risk of severe disease, a low share of immunologically naïve individuals lowers the probability of further severe outbreaks, given that emerging variants do not escape the acquired susceptibility reduction. Here, we estimate the share of immunologically naïve individuals by age group for each of the sixteen German federal states by integrating an infectious-disease model based on weekly incidences of SARS-CoV-2 infections in the national surveillance system and vaccine uptake, as well as assumptions regarding under-ascertainment. We estimate a median share of 5.6% of individuals in the German population have neither been in contact with vaccine nor any variant up to 31 May 2022 (quartile range [2.5%-8.5%]). For the adult population at higher risk of severe disease, this figure is reduced to 3.8% [1.6%-5.9%] for ages 18-59 and 2.1% [1.0%-3.4%] for ages 60 and above. However, estimates vary between German states mostly due to heterogeneous vaccine uptake. Excluding Omicron infections from the analysis, 16.3% [14.1%-17.9%] of the population in Germany, across all ages, are estimated to be immunologically naïve, highlighting the large impact the first two Omicron waves had until the beginning of summer in 2022. The method developed here might be useful for similar estimations in other countries or future outbreaks of other infectious diseases.

Duration of Protection After Vaccination Against Yellow Fever: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

The duration of protection after a single dose of yellow fever vaccine is a matter of debate. To summarize the current knowledge, we performed a systematic literature review and meta-analysis. Studies on the duration of protection after 1 and ≥2 vaccine doses were reviewed. Data were stratified by time since vaccination. In our meta-analysis, we used random-effects models. We identified 36 studies from 20 countries, comprising more than 17 000 participants aged 6 months to 85 years. Among healthy adults and children, pooled seroprotection rates after single vaccination dose were close to 100% by 3 months and remained high in adults for 5 to 10 years. In children vaccinated before age 2 years, the seroprotection rate was 52% within 5 years after primary vaccination. For immunodeficient persons, data indicate relevant waning. The extent of waning of seroprotection after yellow fever vaccination depends on age and immune status at primary vaccination.

Seroprevalence of mucosal and cutaneous human papillomavirus (HPV) types among children and adolescents in the general population in Germany.

BACKGROUND: In Germany, HPV vaccination of adolescent girls was introduced in 2007. Nationally representative data on the distribution of vaccine-relevant HPV types in the pre-vaccination era are, however, only available for the adult population. To obtain data in children and adolescents, we assessed the prevalence and determinants of serological response to 16 different HPV types in a representative sample of 12,257 boys and girls aged 1-17 years living in Germany in 2003-2005. METHODS: Serum samples were tested for antibodies to nine mucosal and seven cutaneous HPV types. The samples had been collected during the nationally representative German Health Interview and Examination Survey for Children and Adolescents in 2003-2006. We calculated age- and gender-specific HPV seroprevalence. We used multivariable regression models to identify associations between demographic and behavioral characteristics and HPV seropositivity. RESULTS: We found low but non-zero seroprevalence for the majority of tested HPV types among children and adolescents in Germany. The overall seroprevalence of HPV-16 was 2.6%, with slightly higher values in adolescents. Seroprevalence of all mucosal types but HPV-6 ranged from 0.6% for HPV-33, to 6.4% for HPV-31 and did not differ by gender. We found high overall seroprevalence for HPV-6 with 24.8%. Cutaneous HPV type seroprevalence ranged from 4.0% for HPV-38 to 31.7% for HPV-1. In the majority of cutaneous types, seroprevalence did not differ between boys and girls, but increased sharply with age, (e.g., HPV-1 from 1.5% in 1-3-years-old to 45.1% in 10-11-years-old). Associations between behavioral factors and type-specific HPV prevalence were determined to be heterogeneous. CONCLUSIONS: We report the first nationally representative data of naturally acquired HPV antibody reactivity in the pre-HPV-vaccination era among children and adolescents living in Germany. These data can be used as baseline estimates for evaluating the impact of the current HPV vaccination strategy targeting 9-14-years-old boys and girls.

How a generally well-accepted measles vaccine mandate may lead to inequities and decreased vaccine uptake: a preregistered survey study in Germany.

BACKGROUND: In Germany, a measles vaccine mandate came into effect in March 2020, requiring proof of measles immunization for children attending kindergarten or school and for staff in a variety of facilities. Mandates can be successful if implemented with care and in a context-sensitive manner. They may, however, also lead to inequities and decreased uptake of other vaccines. The aim of this study was to investigate the acceptance and potential unintended consequences of the measles vaccine mandate in Germany. METHODS: As part of a larger evaluation project on the new mandate, we conducted an online survey among parents in August/September 2020. We assessed differences in knowledge about the mandate and the measles vaccine by socio-economic status. We used linear and logistic regression to estimate how reactance to the mandate was associated with vaccination status and vaccination intention against other diseases. We used mediation analysis to measure how trust in institutions had an impact on the attitude towards the mandate, mediated by level of reactance. RESULTS: In total, 4,863 parents participated in the study (64.2% female, mean age = 36.8 years). Of these, 74.1% endorsed a measles vaccine mandate for children. Parents with lower socio-economic status had less knowledge about the mandate and the measles vaccine. The higher parents' levels of reactance, the lower the vaccination intentions and the likelihood for the child to be vaccinated against other diseases. Furthermore, higher institutional trust decreased the level of reactance and increased positive attitudes towards the mandate (partial mediation). CONCLUSIONS: The new measles vaccine mandate in Germany, though well accepted by many, might have unintended consequences. Parents with lower socio-economic status, who know less about the mandate and vaccine, might be less likely to comply with it. The mandate may also lead to some parents omitting other childhood vaccines, as a way to restore their freedom. This could decrease vaccination coverage of other vaccines. Any potential loss of trust might provoke more reactance and lower acceptance of mandates. Policymakers should now expand communication activities on the mandate, monitor trends in vaccination coverage carefully and take measures to strengthen trust.

Risk of Guillain-Barré syndrome after vaccination against human papillomavirus: a systematic review and meta-analysis, 1 January 2000 to 4 April 2020.

BackgroundGuillain-Barré syndrome (GBS) is a rare autoimmune disease that can follow viral infections and has in a few cases been linked to vaccinations. Pre-licensure clinical trials did not observe an association between human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination and GBS, a post-marketing study from 2017 reported an increased relative risk.AimWe assessed the risk of GBS after HPV vaccination through a systematic literature review and meta-analysis.MethodsWe searched Embase, MEDLINE and Cochrane for studies reporting on the risk of GBS after HPV vaccination in individuals aged ≥ 9 years, published between 1 January 2000 and 4 April 2020, excluding studies without a comparator group. Seven studies reporting relative effect sizes were pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. We assessed quality of evidence using the GRADE approach. Study protocol was registered (PROSPERO No. #CRD42019123533).ResultsOf 602 identified records, we included 25 studies. Based on over 10 million reports, cases of GBS were rare. In 22 studies no increased risk was observed, while in three studies a signal of increased risk of GBS after HPV vaccination was identified. Meta-analysis yielded a pooled random-effects ratio of 1.21 (95% CI: 0.60-2.43); I2 = 72% (95% CI: 36-88). This translates to a number needed to harm of one million to be vaccinated to generate one GBS case. Quality of evidence was very low.ConclusionsThe absolute and relative risk of GBS after HPV vaccination is very low and lacks statistical significance. This is reassuring for the already implemented vaccination programmes and should be used in respective communication activities.

Outbreak of imported diphtheria with Corynebacterium diphtheriae among migrants arriving in Germany, 2022.

From July 2022, cases of imported diphtheria with toxigenic Corynebacterium diphtheriae remarkably increased among migrants arriving in Germany. Up to 30 September 2022, 44 cases have been reported to the national public health institute, all laboratory-confirmed, male, and mainly coming from Syria (n = 21) and Afghanistan (n = 17). Phylogeny and available journey information indicate that most cases (n = 19) were infected along the Balkan route. Active case finding, increased laboratory preparedness and epicentre localisation in countries along this route are important.

Pre-existing health conditions and severe COVID-19 outcomes: an umbrella review approach and meta-analysis of global evidence.

BACKGROUND: This study applies an umbrella review approach to summarise the global evidence on the risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes in patients with pre-existing health conditions. METHODS: Systematic reviews (SRs) were identified in PubMed, Embase/Medline and seven pre-print servers until December 11, 2020. Due to the absence of age-adjusted risk effects stratified by geographical regions, a re-analysis of the evidence was conducted. Primary studies were extracted from SRs and evaluated for inclusion in the re-analysis. Studies were included if they reported risk estimates (odds ratio (OR), hazard ratio (HR), relative risk (RR)) for hospitalisation, intensive care unit admission, intubation or death. Estimated associations were extracted from the primary studies for reported pre-existing conditions. Meta-analyses were performed stratified for each outcome by regions of the World Health Organization. The evidence certainty was assessed using GRADE. Registration number CRD42020215846. RESULTS: In total, 160 primary studies from 120 SRs contributed 464 estimates for 42 pre-existing conditions. Most studies were conducted in North America, European, and Western Pacific regions. Evidence from Africa, South/Latin America, and the Eastern Mediterranean region was scarce. No evidence was available from the South-East Asia region. Diabetes (HR range 1.2-2.0 (CI range 1.1-2.8)), obesity (OR range 1.5-1.75 (CI range 1.1-2.3)), heart failure (HR range 1.3-3.3 (CI range 0.9-8.2)), COPD (HR range 1.12-2.2 (CI range 1.1-3.2)) and dementia (HR range 1.4-7.7 (CI range 1.2-39.6)) were associated with fatal COVID-19 in different regions, although the estimates varied. Evidence from Europe and North America showed that liver cirrhosis (OR range 3.2-5.9 (CI range 0.9-27.7)) and active cancer (OR range 1.6-4.7 (CI range 0.5-14.9)) were also associated with increased risk of death. Association between HIV and undesirable COVID-19 outcomes showed regional heterogeneity, with an increased risk of death in Africa (HR 1.7 (CI 1.3-2.2)). GRADE certainty was moderate to high for most associations. CONCLUSION: Risk of undesirable COVID-19 health outcomes is consistently increased in certain patient subgroups across geographical regions, showing high variability in others. The results can be used to inform COVID-19 vaccine prioritisation or other intervention strategies.

Cost-Effectiveness of Routine Childhood Vaccination Against Seasonal Influenza in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: In Germany, routine influenza vaccination with quadrivalent influenza vaccines (QIV) is recommended and reimbursed for individuals ≥60 years of age and individuals with underlying chronic conditions. The present study examines the cost-effectiveness of a possible extension of the recommendation to include strategies of childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza using QIV. METHODS: A dynamic transmission model was used to examine the epidemiological impact of different childhood vaccination strategies. The outputs were used in a health economic decision tree to calculate the costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained from a societal and a third-party payer (TPP) perspective. Strain-specific epidemiology, vaccine uptake, and vaccine efficacy data from the 10 non-pandemic seasons from 2003/2004 to 2013/2014 were used, and cost data were drawn mainly from a health insurance claims data analysis and supplemented by estimates from literature. Uncertainty is explored via scenario, deterministic, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. RESULTS: Vaccinating 2- to 9-year-olds with QIV assuming a vaccine uptake of 40% is cost-saving with a benefit-cost ratio of 1.66 from a societal perspective and an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of €998/QALY from a TPP perspective. Lower and higher vaccine uptakes show marginal effects, while extending the target group to 2- to 17-year-olds further increases the health benefits while still being below the willingness-to-pay (WTP) threshold. Assuming no vaccine-induced herd protection has a negative effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio, but childhood vaccination remains cost-effective. CONCLUSION: Routine childhood vaccination against seasonal influenza in Germany is most likely to be cost-saving from a societal perspective and highly cost-effective from a TPP perspective.

Determinants of physician attitudes towards the new selective measles vaccine mandate in Germany.

BACKGROUND: In Germany, a mandatory policy on measles vaccination came into effect in March 2020. Physicians, as the main vaccine providers, have a crucial role in implementing it. Mandatory vaccination changes the preconditions under which patient-provider communication on vaccines occurs. Physicians might or might not favor vaccine mandates depending on, among other factors, their attitudes towards vaccines and capabilities as vaccine providers. The aim of this study was to investigate in different subgroups of physicians the association between various factors and their attitudes towards a mandatory policy. METHODS: In total, 2229 physicians participated in a mixed-mode online/paper-pencil survey. Respondents were general practitioners, pediatricians, gynecologists, and internists. Primary determinants were the 5C psychological antecedents of vaccination, communication self-efficacy, patient clientele, projected consequences of the mandate and sociodemographic characteristics. Associations between outcomes and determinants were examined using linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Approximately 86% of physicians were in favor of the measles vaccine mandate for children. Regarding the 5C model, physicians were more in favor of vaccine mandates when they scored higher on confidence and collective responsibility, and lower on complacency and calculation. They were more in favor of vaccine mandates when they had higher communication self-efficacy and a more vaccine-positive patient clientele. Pediatricians were less in favor of mandates for children (80.0%) than other physician subgroups (87.1%). They were also less convinced that a mandate would result in more children getting vaccinated (59.3%) than other physician subgroups (78.3%). When controlled for these expected consequences, being a pediatrician no longer lowered the attitude towards the mandate. CONCLUSIONS: Physicians in Germany are predominantly in favor of a measles vaccine mandate. Whether or not physicians believe the mandate to be effective in increasing vaccine coverage affects their attitude towards the mandate. In pediatricians, this belief explains their less positive attitude towards the mandate. In addition, physicians need adequate support to communicate well with patients, especially those who are hesitant, to booster their communication self-efficacy. To increase acceptance of vaccine mandates, the 5C model can be used, e.g., collective responsibility can be communicated, to avoid anger stemming from a negative attitude to mandates.

Efficacy and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection: interim results of a living systematic review, 1 January to 14 May 2021.

Evidence on COVID-19 vaccine efficacy/effectiveness (VE) in preventing asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infections is needed to guide public health recommendations for vaccinated people. We report interim results of a living systematic review. We identified a total of 30 studies that investigated VE against symptomatic and/or asymptomatic infection. In fully vaccinated individuals, VE against symptomatic and asymptomatic infections was 80-90% in nearly all studies. Fully vaccinated persons are less likely to become infected and contribute to transmission.

Effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infection with the Delta (B.1.617.2) variant: second interim results of a living systematic review and meta-analysis, 1 January to 25 August 2021.

The Delta variant has become the dominant strain of SARS-CoV-2. We summarised the evidence on COVID-19 vaccine effectiveness (VE) identified in 17 studies that investigated VE against different endpoints. Pooled VE was 63.1% (95% confidence interval (CI): 40.9-76.9) against asymptomatic infection, 75.7% (95% CI: 69.3-80.8) against symptomatic infection and 90.9% (95% CI: 84.5-94.7) against hospitalisation. Compared with the Alpha variant, VE against mild outcomes was reduced by 10-20%, but fully maintained against severe COVID-19.