Towards precision medicine in diabetes? A critical review of glucotypes.

In response to a study previously published in PLOS Biology, this Formal Comment thoroughly examines the concept of 'glucotypes' with regard to its generalisability, interpretability and relationship to more traditional measures used to describe data from continuous glucose monitoring.

Use of medication in pregnancy on the rise: Study on 1.4 million Danish pregnancies from 1998 to 2018.

INTRODUCTION: Maternal demographics have evolved, and more women than ever enter pregnancy with preexisting comorbidity and with potentially complex medication exposure, including polypharmacy (concomitant intake of multiple medications). This study aims to describe the evolution of medication use in pregnancy in Denmark from 1998 to 2018 with special focus on polypharmacy, patterns of use, and underlying demographics. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A Danish nationwide historical registry study based on all clinically recognized pregnancies with a gestation ≥10 weeks between 1998 and 2018. Medication use was estimated by redemption of prescriptions during pregnancy. RESULTS: Among a total of 1 402 327 clinically recognized pregnancies, redemption of at least one prescription medication during pregnancy increased from 56.9% in 1998 to 63.3% in 2018, coinciding with an increased use of polypharmacy (from 24.8% in 1998 to 35.2% in 2018). The prevalence of pregnant women who used medications for chronic conditions increased more than the prevalence of women treated for occasional or short-time conditions. Redemption of one or multiple prescription medications during pregnancy was mostly seen among pregnant women ≥35 years of age. However, pregnant women <25 years old exhibited the largest increase in medication use during the study period. CONCLUSIONS: Medication use in general, and polypharmacy in particular, increased from 1998 to 2008, possibly as the result of an increased prevalence of pregnant women with chronic conditions requiring pharmacological treatment. Notably, a marked maternal age-based discrepancy in usage pattern was observed, highlighting the need for further research in this area. The rise in the prevalence of polypharmacy during pregnancy underscores the need for pharmacovigilance to monitor adverse effects. Future studies should investigate the patterns of polypharmacy and the accompanying maternal and fetal risks.

Using the illness-death model to estimate age- and sex-standardized incidence rates of diabetes in Mexico from 2003 to 2015.

BACKGROUND: We aimed to estimate the age-specific and age-standardized incidence rate of diabetes for men and women in Mexico between 2003 and 2015, and to assess the relative change in incidence of diabetes between 2003 and 2015. METHODS: We use a partial differential equation describing the illness-death model to estimate the incidence rate (IR) of diabetes for the years 2003, 2009 and 2015 based on prevalence data from National Health Surveys conducted in Mexico, the mortality rate of the Mexican general population and plausible input values for age-specific mortality rate ratios associated with diabetes. RESULTS: The age-standardized IR of diabetes per 1000 person years (pryr) was similar among men (IRm) and women (IRw) in the year 2003 (IRm 6.1 vs. IRw 6.5 1000/pryr), 2009 (IRm: 7.0 vs. IRw: 8.4 1000/pryr), and in 2015 (IRm 8.0 vs. IRw 10.6 1000/pryr). The highest incident rates were observed among men and women in the 60-69 age group. CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the incidence rate of diabetes in Mexico between the years 2003 and 2015 remained stable. However, rates were markedly higher among women in the age group 40-49 and 50-59 in the year 2015 compared with rates in 2003.

Obesity and Kidney Function: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Study.

BACKGROUND: Obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2D) are correlated risk factors for chronic kidney disease (CKD). METHODS: Using summary data from GIANT (Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits), DIAGRAM (DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis), and CKDGen (CKD Genetics), we examined causality and directionality of the association between obesity and kidney function. Bidirectional 2-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) estimated the total causal effects of body mass index (BMI) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR) on kidney function, and vice versa. Effects of adverse obesity and T2D were examined by stratifying BMI variants by their association with WHR and T2D. Multivariable MR estimated the direct causal effects of BMI and WHR on kidney function. The inverse variance weighted random-effects MR for Europeans was the main analysis, accompanied by several sensitivity MR analyses. RESULTS: One standard deviation (SD ≈ 4.8 kg/m2) genetically higher BMI was associated with decreased estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) [ß=-0.032 (95% confidence intervals: -0.036, -0.027) log[eGFR], P = 1 × 10-43], increased blood urea nitrogen (BUN) [ß = 0.010 (0.005, 0.015) log[BUN], P = 3 × 10-6], increased urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio [ß = 0.199 (0.067, 0.332) log[urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR)], P = 0.003] in individuals with diabetes, and increased risk of microalbuminuria [odds ratios (OR) = 1.15 [1.04-1.28], P = 0.009] and CKD [1.13 (1.07-1.19), P = 3 × 10-6]. Corresponding estimates for WHR and for trans-ethnic populations were overall similar. The associations were driven by adverse obesity, and for microalbuminuria additionally by T2D. While genetically high BMI, unlike WHR, was directly associated with eGFR, BUN, and CKD, the pathway to albuminuria was likely through T2D. Genetically predicted kidney function was not associated with BMI or WHR. CONCLUSIONS: Genetically high BMI is associated with impaired kidney function, driven by adverse obesity, and for albuminuria additionally by T2D.

Health-related quality of life for normal glycaemia, prediabetes and type 2 diabetes mellitus: Cross-sectional analysis of the ADDITION-PRO study.

AIMS: We estimated and compared health-related quality of life for individuals with normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes and diabetes. METHODS: Participants in the ADDITION-PRO study, Denmark, who attended a health assessment between 2009 and 2011, and who completed the 3-level EuroQoL 5-dimensions (EQ-5D-3L) questionnaire were included. For the present study, they were classified as normal glucose tolerance, prediabetes and diabetes (screen-detected and known) using the 2019 American Diabetes Association criteria. Prediabetes was defined as impaired fasting glucose, impaired glucose tolerance or HbA1c between 5.7-6.4% (39-47 mmol/mol). EQ-5D-3L data were converted into utility scores using Danish and UK values, where '1' equals full health and '0' equals death. Regression models estimated the association between utility and the different glucose health states. RESULTS: The mean EQ-5D-3L score in the sample population was 0.86 ± 0.17 (median 0.85, interquartile range 0.76 to 1) using UK values. Almost half of the sample (48%) reported full health with an EQ-5D score of '1'. Individuals with known diabetes reported the lowest EQ-5D-3L utility scores (0.81 ± 0.20), followed by individuals with screen-detected diabetes (0.85 ± 0.19), prediabetes (0.86 ± 0.17) and normal glucose tolerance (0.90 ± 0.15). The differences were statistically significant for normal glucose and known diabetes relative to prediabetes, after adjusting for sex, age, smoking, BMI and physical activity. These findings also held using Danish values albeit the differences were of smaller magnitude. CONCLUSIONS: Having prediabetes and diabetes was significantly associated with lower health-related quality of life relative to normal glucose tolerance. Our estimates will be useful to inform the value of interventions to prevent diabetes or prediabetes.

Kidney function and risk of dementia: Observational study, meta-analysis, and two-sample mendelian randomization study.

Whether impaired kidney function is associated with increased risk of developing dementia is unclear. We investigated the association between estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and dementia. Using a triangulation approach, we performed (1) a prospective study in 90,369 Danes from the Copenhagen General Population Study (CGPS), (2) a meta-analysis in 468,699 Scandinavians (including CGPS) and (3) a two-sample Mendelian randomization study in 218,792-1,004,040 Europeans using summary data from largest publicly available genome wide association studies (GWASs). During up to 15 years of follow-up (CGPS), 2,468 individuals developed dementia. Age and sex standardized percentile of eGFR below versus above the median conferred a multifactorially adjusted hazard ratio of 1.09 (95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.18). In meta-analysis, random-effects risk of dementia was 1.14 (1.06-1.22) for mildly decreased eGFR (60-90 mL/min/1.73 m2), 1.31 (0.92-1.87) for moderately decreased eGFR (30-59 mL/min/1.73 m2) and 1.91 (1.21-3.01) for severely decreased eGFR (< 30 mL/min/1.73 m2), compared to reference eGFR (> 90 mL/min/1.73 m2). Using directly comparable eGFR measures (log[eGFR] scaled to one standard deviation, as well as eGFR below versus above 60 mL/min/1.73 m2), we found no association with risk of dementia in observational CGPS or in Mendelian randomization analyses. In conclusion, impaired kidney function was associated with modestly increased risk of developing dementia. This was not supported by causal, genetic analyses using a Mendelian randomization approach. However, future stronger genetic instruments for kidney function and larger GWASs with more dementia cases, particularly for the vascular dementia subtype, warrant a re-evaluation of the causal hypothesis.

Association of weight loss and weight loss maintenance following diabetes diagnosis by screening and incidence of cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality: An observational analysis of the ADDITION-Europe trial.

AIMS: Short-term weight loss may lead to remission of type 2 diabetes but the effect of maintained weight loss on cardiovascular disease (CVD) is unknown. We quantified the associations between changes in weight 5 years following a diagnosis of diabetes, and incident CVD events and mortality up to 10 years after diagnosis. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Observational analysis of the ADDITION-Europe trial of 2730 adults with screen-detected type 2 diabetes from the UK, Denmark and the Netherlands. We defined weight change based on the maintenance at 5 years of weight loss achieved during the year after diabetes diagnosis, and as 5-year overall change in weight. Incident CVD events (n = 229) and all-cause mortality (n = 225) from 5 to 10 years follow-up were ascertained from medical records. RESULTS: Gaining >2% weight during the year after diabetes diagnosis was associated with higher hazard of all-cause mortality versus maintaining weight [hazard ratio (95% confidence interval): 3.18 (1.30-7.82)]. Losing ≥5% weight 1 year after diagnosis was also associated with mortality, whether or not weight loss was maintained at 5 years: 2.47 (0.99-6.21) and 2.72 (1.17-6.30), respectively. Losing ≥10% weight over 5 years was associated with mortality among those with body mass index <30 kg/m2 [4.62 (1.87-11.42)]. Associations with CVD incidence were inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Both weight loss and weight gain after screen-detected diabetes diagnosis were associated with higher mortality, but not CVD events, particularly among participants without obesity. The clinical implications of weight loss following a diagnosis of diabetes probably depend on its magnitude and timing, and may differ by body mass index status. Personalization of weight loss advice and support may be warranted.

Effect of familial diabetes status and age at diagnosis on type 2 diabetes risk: a nation-wide register-based study from Denmark.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: We assessed whether the risk of developing type 2 diabetes and the age of onset varied with the age at diabetes diagnosis of affected family members. METHODS: We performed a national register-based open cohort study of individuals living in Denmark between 1995 and 2012. The population under study consisted of all individuals aged 30 years or older without diagnosed diabetes at the start date of the cohort (1 January 1995) and who had information about their parents' identity. Individuals who turned 30 years of age during the observation period and had available parental identity information were also added to the cohort from that date (open cohort design). These criteria restricted the study population mostly to people born between 1960 and 1982. Multivariable Poisson regression models adjusted for current age and highest educational attainment were used to estimate incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of type 2 diabetes. RESULTS: We followed 2,000,552 individuals for a median of 14 years (24,034,059 person-years) and observed 76,633 new cases of type 2 diabetes. Compared with individuals of the same age and sex who did not have a parent or full sibling with diabetes, the highest risk of developing type 2 diabetes was observed in individuals with family members diagnosed at an early age. The IRR was progressively lower with a higher age at diabetes diagnosis in family members: 3.9 vs 1.4 for those with a parental age at diagnosis of 50 or 80 years, respectively; and 3.3 vs 2.0 for those with a full sibling's age at diagnosis of 30 or 60 years, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: People with a family member diagnosed with diabetes at an earlier age are more likely to develop diabetes and also to develop it at an earlier age than those with a family member diagnosed in later life. This finding highlights the importance of expanding our understanding of the interplay between genetic diabetes determinants and the social, behavioural and environmental diabetes determinants that track in families across generations. Accurate registration of age at diagnosis should form an integral part of recording a diabetes family history, as it provides easily obtainable and highly relevant detail that may improve identification of individuals at increased risk of younger onset of type 2 diabetes. In particular, these individuals may benefit from closer risk factor assessment and follow-up, as well as prevention strategies that may involve the family.

Effect of duration and burden of microvascular complications on mortality rate in type 1 diabetes: an observational clinical cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The role of burden and duration of multiple microvascular complications on mortality rate has not been explored in detail in type 1 diabetes. Taking complication burden and time-updated duration into account we aimed to quantify mortality rate in individuals with and without microvascular complications. METHODS: This observational clinical cohort included 3828 individuals with type 1 diabetes attending the Steno Diabetes Center Copenhagen in 2001-2013. We used information on mortality and detailed clinical measures of microvascular complications from electronic patient records. Poisson models were used to model mortality rates according to complication burden. RESULTS: During 26,665 person-years of follow-up, 503 deaths occurred. Compared with individuals without microvascular complications, the mortality rate ratio was 2.20 (95% CI 1.79, 2.69) for individuals with diabetic kidney disease, 1.72 (95% CI 1.39, 2.12) for individuals with neuropathy and 1.02 (95% CI 0.77, 1.37) for individuals with retinopathy, all adjusted for calendar time (year/month/day), age, duration of diabetes, sex, HbA1c, LDL-cholesterol, BMI, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication, and cardiovascular disease status. In individuals with two complications or more, the risk of mortality did not exceed the combined risk from each individual complication. Mortality rate ratios increased immediately after diagnosis of neuropathy and diabetic kidney disease. Mortality rate ratios were independent of the duration of neuropathy and retinopathy, while the mortality rate associated with diabetic kidney disease reached a stable level after approximately 3 years. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Neuropathy and diabetic kidney disease are strong and independent risk markers of mortality in type 1 diabetes, whereas no evidence of higher mortality rate was found for retinopathy. We found no indication that the mortality risk with multiple complications exceeds the risk conferred by each complication separately. The duration spent with microvascular complications had only a marginal effect on mortality.

Reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia and risk of cardiovascular disease and mortality: the Whitehall II cohort study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia is accompanied by an improvement in cardiovascular risk factors, but it is unclear whether this translates into a reduction in risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) events or death. Hence, we studied the probability of reversion from prediabetes to normoglycaemia and the associated risk of future CVD and death using data from the Whitehall II observational cohort study. METHODS: Three glycaemic criteria for prediabetes (fasting plasma glucose [FPG] 5.6-6.9 mmol/l, 2 h plasma glucose [2hPG] 7.8-11.0 mmol/l, and HbA1c 39-47 mmol/mol [5.7-6.4%]) were assessed in 2002-2004 and 2007-2009 for 5193 participants free of known diabetes at enrolment. Among participants with prediabetes in the first examination, we calculated the probability of reversion to normoglycaemia by re-examination according to each glycaemic criterion. Poisson regression analysis was used to estimate and compare incidence rates of a composite endpoint of a CVD event or death in participants with prediabetes who did vs did not revert to normoglycaemia. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, ethnicity and previous CVD. RESULTS: Based on the FPG criterion, 820 participants had prediabetes and 365 (45%) of them had reverted to normoglycaemia in 5 years. The corresponding numbers were 324 and 120 (37%) for the 2hPG criterion and 1709 and 297 (17%) for the HbA1c criterion. During a median follow-up of 6.7 (interquartile range 6.3-7.2) years, 668 events of non-fatal CVD or death occurred among the 5193 participants. Reverting from 2hPG-defined prediabetes to normoglycaemia vs remaining prediabetic or progressing to diabetes was associated with a halving in event rate (12.7 vs 29.1 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.020). No association with event rate was observed for reverting from FPG-defined (18.6 vs 18.2 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.910) or HbA1c-defined prediabetes to normoglycaemia (24.5 vs 22.9 per 1000 person-years, p = 0.962). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Most people with HbA1c-defined prediabetes remained prediabetic or progressed to diabetes during 5 years of follow-up. In contrast, reversion to normoglycaemia was frequent among people with FPG- or 2hPG-defined prediabetes. Only reversion from 2hPG-defined prediabetes to normoglycaemia was associated with a reduction in future risk of CVD and death.

Greater glucagon-like peptide-1 responses to oral glucose are associated with lower central and peripheral blood pressures.

BACKGROUND AND AIM: Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are globally the leading cause of death and hypertension is a significant risk factor. Treatment with glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) receptor agonists has been associated with decreases in blood pressure and CVD risk. Our aim was to investigate the association between endogenous GLP-1 responses to oral glucose and peripheral and central haemodynamic measures in a population at risk of diabetes and CVD. METHODS: This cross-sectional study included 837 Danish individuals from the ADDITION-PRO cohort (52% men, median (interquartile range) age 65.5 (59.8 to 70.7) years, BMI 26.1 (23.4 to 28.5) kg/m2, without antihypertensive treatment and known diabetes). All participants received an oral glucose tolerance test with measurements of GLP-1 at 0, 30 and 120 min. Aortic stiffness was assessed by pulse wave velocity (PWV). The associations between GLP-1 response and central and brachial blood pressure (BP) and PWV were assessed in linear regression models adjusting for age and sex. RESULTS: A greater GLP-1 response was associated with lower central systolic and diastolic BP of - 1.17 mmHg (95% confidence interval (CI) - 2.07 to - 0.27 mmHg, P = 0.011) and - 0.74 mmHg (95% CI - 1.29 to - 0.18 mmHg, P = 0.009), respectively, as well as lower brachial systolic and diastolic BP of - 1.27 mmHg (95% CI - 2.20 to - 0.33 mmHg, P = 0.008) and - 1.00 (95% CI - 1.56 to - 0.44 mmHg, P = 0.001), respectively. PWV was not associated with GLP-1 release (P = 0.3). Individuals with the greatest quartile of GLP-1 response had clinically relevant lower BP measures compared to individuals with the lowest quartile of GLP-1 response (central systolic BP: - 4.94 (95% CI - 8.56 to - 1.31) mmHg, central diastolic BP: - 3.05 (95% CI - 5.29 to - 0.80) mmHg, brachial systolic BP: - 5.18 (95% CI - 8.94 to - 1.42) mmHg, and brachial diastolic BP: - 2.96 (95% CI - 5.26 to - 0.67) mmHg). CONCLUSION: Greater glucose-stimulated GLP-1 responses were associated with clinically relevant lower central and peripheral blood pressures, consistent with beneficial effects on the cardiovascular system and reduced risk of CVD and mortality. Trial registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00237549. Retrospectively registered 10 October 2005.

Spousal cardiometabolic risk factors and incidence of type 2 diabetes: a prospective analysis from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In the UK, more than one million people have undiagnosed diabetes and an additional five million are at high risk of developing the disease. Given that early identification of these people is key for both primary and secondary prevention, new screening approaches are needed. Since spouses resemble each other in cardiometabolic risk factors related to type 2 diabetes, we aimed to investigate whether diabetes and cardiometabolic risk factors in one spouse can be used as an indicator of incident type 2 diabetes in the other spouse. METHODS: We analysed data from 3649 men and 3478 women from the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing with information on their own and their spouse's diabetes status and cardiometabolic risk factors. We modelled incidence rates and incidence rate ratios with Poisson regression, using spousal diabetes status or cardiometabolic risk factors (i.e. BMI, waist circumference, systolic and diastolic BP, HDL- and LDL-cholesterol and triacylglycerols) as exposures and type 2 diabetes incidence in the index individual as the outcome. Models were adjusted for two nested sets of covariates. RESULTS: Spousal BMI and waist circumference were associated with incident type 2 diabetes, but with different patterns for men and women. A man's risk of type 2 diabetes increased more steeply with his wife's obesity level, and the association remained statistically significant even after adjustment for the man's own obesity level. Having a wife with a 5 kg/m2 higher BMI (30 kg/m2 vs 25 kg/m2) was associated with a 21% (95% CI 11%, 33%) increased risk of type 2 diabetes. In contrast, the association between incident type 2 diabetes in a woman and her husband's BMI was attenuated after adjusting for the woman's own obesity level. Findings for waist circumference were similar to those for BMI. Regarding other risk factors, we found a statistically significant association only between the risk of type 2 diabetes in women and their husbands' triacylglycerol levels. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: The main finding of this study is the sex-specific effect of spousal obesity on the risk of type 2 diabetes. Having an obese spouse increases an individual's risk of type 2 diabetes over and above the effect of the individual's own obesity level among men, but not among women. Our results suggest that a couples-focused approach may be beneficial for the early detection of type 2 diabetes and individuals at high risk of developing type 2 diabetes, especially in men, who are less likely than women to attend health checks. DATA AVAILABILITY: Data were accessed via the UK Data Service under the data-sharing agreement no. 91400 ( https://discover.ukdataservice.ac.uk/catalogue/?sn=5050&type=Data%20catalogue ).

Glucose patterns during an oral glucose tolerance test and associations with future diabetes, cardiovascular disease and all-cause mortality rate.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: In addition to blood glucose concentrations measured in the fasting state and 2 h after an OGTT, intermediate measures during an OGTT may provide additional information regarding a person's risk of future diabetes and cardiovascular disease (CVD). First, we aimed to characterise heterogeneity of glycaemic patterns based on three time points during an OGTT. Second, we compared the incidences of diabetes and CVD and all-cause mortality rates among those with different patterns. METHODS: Our cohort study included 5861 participants without diabetes at baseline from the Danish Inter99 study. At baseline, all participants underwent an OGTT with measurements of plasma glucose levels at 0, 30 and 120 min. Latent class mixed-effects models were fitted to identify distinct patterns of glycaemic response during the OGTT. Information regarding incident diabetes, CVD and all-cause mortality rates during a median follow-up time of 11, 12 and 13 years, respectively, was extracted from national registers. Cox proportional hazard models with adjustment for several cardiometabolic risk factors were used to compare the risk of diabetes, CVD and all-cause mortality among individuals in the different latent classes. RESULTS: Four distinct glucose patterns during the OGTT were identified. One pattern was characterised by high 30 min but low 2 h glucose values. Participants with this pattern had an increased risk of developing diabetes compared with participants with lower 30 min and 2 h glucose levels (HR 4.1 [95% CI 2.2, 7.6]) and participants with higher 2 h but lower 30 min glucose levels (HR 1.5 [95% CI 1.0, 2.2]). Furthermore, the all-cause mortality rate differed between the groups with significantly higher rates in the two groups with elevated 30 min glucose. Only small non-significant differences in risk of future CVD were observed across latent classes after confounder adjustment. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Elevated 30 min glucose is associated with increased risk of diabetes and all-cause mortality rate independent of fasting and 2 h glucose levels. Therefore, subgroups at high risk may not be revealed when considering only fasting and 2 h glucose levels during an OGTT.

Correction to: Soluble CD163, adiponectin, C-reactive protein and progression of dysglycaemia in individuals at high risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus: the ADDITION-PRO cohort.

The authors have discovered a coding error in the statistical analysis syntax file used for the mixed-effect model analyses in this paper. The error has led to differences (first decimal) in the estimates for the main results.

Evidence of a liver-alpha cell axis in humans: hepatic insulin resistance attenuates relationship between fasting plasma glucagon and glucagonotropic amino acids.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The secretion of glucagon is controlled by blood glucose and inappropriate secretion of glucagon contributes to hyperglycaemia in diabetes. Besides its role in glucose regulation, glucagon regulates amino acid metabolism in hepatocytes by increasing ureagenesis. Disruption of this mechanism causes hyperaminoacidaemia, which in turn increases glucagon secretion. We hypothesised that hepatic insulin resistance (secondary to hepatic steatosis) via defective glucagon signalling/glucagon resistance would lead to impaired ureagenesis and, hence, increased plasma concentrations of glucagonotropic amino acids and, subsequently, glucagon. METHODS: To examine the association between glucagon and amino acids, and to explore whether this relationship was modified by hepatic insulin resistance, we studied a well-characterised cohort of 1408 individuals with normal and impaired glucose regulation. In this cohort, we have previously reported insulin resistance to be accompanied by increased plasma concentrations of glucagon. We now measure plasma levels of amino acids in the same cohort. HOMA-IR was calculated as a marker of hepatic insulin resistance. RESULTS: Fasting levels of glucagonotropic amino acids and glucagon were significantly and inversely associated in linear regression models (persisting after adjustment for age, sex and BMI). Increasing levels of hepatic, but not peripheral insulin resistance (p > 0.166) attenuated the association between glucagon and circulating levels of alanine, glutamine and tyrosine, and was significantly associated with hyperaminoacidaemia and hyperglucagonaemia. A doubling of the calculated glucagon-alanine index was significantly associated with a 30% increase in hepatic insulin resistance, a 7% increase in plasma alanine aminotransferase levels, and a 14% increase in plasma γ-glutamyltransferase levels. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: This cross-sectional study supports the existence of a liver-alpha cell axis in humans: glucagon regulates plasma levels of amino acids, which in turn feedback to regulate the secretion of glucagon. With hepatic insulin resistance, reflecting hepatic steatosis, the feedback cycle is disrupted, leading to hyperaminoacidaemia and hyperglucagonaemia. The glucagon-alanine index is suggested as a relevant marker for hepatic glucagon signalling.

Comparative analysis of the association between 35 frailty scores and cardiovascular events, cancer, and total mortality in an elderly general population in England: An observational study.

BACKGROUND: Frail elderly people experience elevated mortality. However, no consensus exists on the definition of frailty, and many frailty scores have been developed. The main aim of this study was to compare the association between 35 frailty scores and incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), incident cancer, and all-cause mortality. Also, we aimed to assess whether frailty scores added predictive value to basic and adjusted models for these outcomes. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Through a structured literature search, we identified 35 frailty scores that could be calculated at wave 2 of the English Longitudinal Study of Ageing (ELSA), an observational cohort study. We analysed data from 5,294 participants, 44.9% men, aged 60 years and over. We studied the association between each of the scores and the incidence of CVD, cancer, and all-cause mortality during a 7-year follow-up using Cox proportional hazard models at progressive levels of adjustment. We also examined the added predictive performance of each score on top of basic models using Harrell's C statistic. Using age of the participant as a timescale, in sex-adjusted models, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality ranged from 2.4 (95% CI: 1.7-3.3) to 26.2 (95% CI: 15.4-44.5). In further adjusted models including smoking status and alcohol consumption, HR ranged from 2.3 (95% CI: 1.6-3.1) to 20.2 (95% CI: 11.8-34.5). In fully adjusted models including lifestyle and comorbidity, HR ranged from 0.9 (95% CI: 0.5-1.7) to 8.4 (95% CI: 4.9-14.4). HRs for CVD and cancer incidence in sex-adjusted models ranged from 1.2 (95% CI: 0.5-3.2) to 16.5 (95% CI: 7.8-35.0) and from 0.7 (95% CI: 0.4-1.2) to 2.4 (95% CI: 1.0-5.7), respectively. In sex- and age-adjusted models, all frailty scores showed significant added predictive performance for all-cause mortality, increasing the C statistic by up to 3%. None of the scores significantly improved basic prediction models for CVD or cancer. A source of bias could be the differences in mortality follow-up time compared to CVD/cancer, because the existence of informative censoring cannot be excluded. CONCLUSION: There is high variability in the strength of the association between frailty scores and 7-year all-cause mortality, incident CVD, and cancer. With regard to all-cause mortality, some scores give a modest improvement to the predictive ability. Our results show that certain scores clearly outperform others with regard to three important health outcomes in later life. Finally, we think that despite their limitations, the use of frailty scores to identify the elderly population at risk is still a useful measure, and the choice of a frailty score should balance feasibility with performance.

The role of physical activity in the development of first cardiovascular disease event: a tree-structured survival analysis of the Danish ADDITION-PRO cohort.

BACKGROUND: Ambiguity exists in relation to the role of physical activity (PA) for cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk reduction. We examined the interplay between PA dimensions and more conventional CVD risk factors to assess which PA dimensions were associated with the first CVD event and whether subgroup differences exist. METHODS: A total of 1449 individuals [median age 65.8 (IQR: 61.2, 70.7) years] with low to high risk of type 2 diabetes and free from CVD from the Danish ADDITION-PRO study were included for survival analysis. PA was measured by individually calibrated heart rate and movement sensing for 7 consecutive days. The associations of different PA dimensions (PA energy expenditure, time spent in light-, moderate- and vigorous intensity PA), sedentary time and other conventional CVD risk factors with the first CVD event were examined by tree-structured survival analysis. Baseline information was linked to data on the first CVD event (ischemic heart disease, ischemic stroke, heart failure, atrial flutter/fibrillation and atherosclerotic disease) and mortality obtained from Danish registers. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 5.5 (IQR: 5.1-6.1) years, a total of 201 individuals (13.9%) developed CVD. Overall CVD incidence rate was 2.6/100 person-years. PA energy expenditure above 43 kJ/kg/day was associated with lower rates of CVD events among participants ≤ 70 years and with HbA1c ≤ 5.7% (39 mmol/mol), systolic blood pressure ≤ 156 mmHg and albumin creatinine ratio ≤ 70 (incidence rates 0.0-0.8/100 person-years). CONCLUSIONS: Any type of PA resulting in increased PA energy expenditure may over time be the best prevention strategy to uphold reduced risk of CVD.

Common variants in the hERG (KCNH2) voltage-gated potassium channel are associated with altered fasting and glucose-stimulated plasma incretin and glucagon responses.

BACKGROUND: Patients with long QT syndrome due to rare loss-of-function mutations in the human ether-á-go-go-related gene (hERG) have prolonged QT interval, risk of arrhythmias, increased secretion of insulin and incretins and impaired glucagon response to hypoglycemia. This is caused by a dysfunctional Kv11.1 voltage-gated potassium channel. Based on these findings in patients with rare variants in hERG, we hypothesized that common variants in hERG may also lead to alterations in glucose homeostasis. Subsequently, we aimed to evaluate the effect of two common gain-of-function variants in hERG (rs36210421 and rs1805123) on QT interval and plasma levels of glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), insulin and glucagon during an oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT). We used two population-based cohorts for evaluation of the effect of common variants in hERG on QT-interval and circulation levels of incretins, insulin and glucagon. The Danish population-based Inter99 cohort (n = 5895) was used to assess the effect of common variants on QT-interval. The Danish ADDITION-PRO cohort was used (n = 1329) to study genetic associations with levels of GLP-1, GIP, insulin and glucagon during an OGTT. RESULTS: Carriers of either the minor A-allele of rs36210421 or the minor G-allele of rs1805123 had ~ 2 ms shorter QT interval per risk allele (p = 0.025 and p = 1.9 × 10- 7). Additionally, both variants were associated with alterations in pancreatic and gut hormone release among carriers. The minor A- allele of rs36210421 was associated with increased GLP-1 and decreased GIP response to oral glucose stimulation, whereas the minor G-allele of rs1805123 is associated with decreased fasting plasma insulin and glucagon release. A genetic risk score combining the two gene variants revealed reductions in glucose-stimulated GIP, as well as suppressed glucagon response to increased glucose levels during an OGTT. CONCLUSIONS: Two common missense polymorphisms of the Kv11.1 voltage-gated hERG potassium channel are associated with alterations in circulating levels of GIP and glucagon, suggesting that hERG potassium channels play a role in fasting and glucose-stimulated release of GIP and glucagon. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov ( NCT00289237 ). Trial retrospectively registered at February 9, 2006. Studies were approved by the Ethical Committee of the Central Denmark Region (journal no. 20080229) and by the Copenhagen County Ethical Committee (KA 98155).

Effect of population screening for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors on mortality rate and cardiovascular events: a controlled trial among 1,912,392 Danish adults.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Health check programmes for chronic disease have been introduced in a number of countries. However, there are few trials assessing the benefits and harms of these screening programmes at the population level. In a post hoc analysis, we evaluated the effect of population-based screening for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors on mortality rates and cardiovascular events. METHODS: This register-based, non-randomised, controlled trial included men and women aged 40-69 years without known diabetes who were registered with a general practice in Denmark (n = 1,912,392). Between 2001 and 2006, 153,107 individuals registered with 181 practices participating in the Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment in People with Screen-Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION)-Denmark study were sent a diabetes risk score questionnaire. Individuals at moderate-to-high risk were invited to visit their GP for assessment of diabetes status and cardiovascular risk (screening group). The 1,759,285 individuals registered with all other general practices in Denmark constituted the retrospectively constructed no-screening (control) group. Outcomes were mortality rate and cardiovascular events (cardiovascular disease death, non-fatal ischaemic heart disease or stroke). The analysis was performed according to the intention-to-screen principle. RESULTS: Among the screening group, 27,177 (18%) individuals attended for assessment of diabetes status and cardiovascular risk. Of these, 1,533 were diagnosed with diabetes. During a median follow-up of 9.5 years, there were 11,826 deaths in the screening group and 141,719 in the no-screening group (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.96, 1.02], p = 0.66). There were 17,941 cardiovascular events in the screening group and 208,476 in the no-screening group (HR 0.99 [0.96, 1.02], p = 0.49). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: A population-based stepwise screening programme for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular risk factors among all middle-aged adults in Denmark was not associated with a reduction in rate of mortality or cardiovascular events between 2001 and 2012.

Does training of general practitioners for intensive treatment of people with screen-detected diabetes have a spillover effect on mortality and cardiovascular morbidity in 'at risk' individuals with normoglycaemia? Results from the ADDITION-Denmark cluster-randomised controlled trial.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Within a trial of intensive treatment of people with screen-detected diabetes, we aimed to assess a potential spillover effect of the trial intervention on incident cardiovascular disease (CVD) and all-cause mortality among people who screened positive on a diabetes risk questionnaire but who were normoglycaemic. METHODS: In the Anglo-Danish-Dutch Study of Intensive Treatment In People with Screen-Detected Diabetes in Primary Care (ADDITION)-Denmark trial, 175 general practices were cluster-randomised into: (1) screening plus routine care of individuals with screen-detected diabetes (control group); or (2) screening plus training and support in intensive multifactorial treatment of individuals with screen-detected diabetes (intervention group). We identified all individuals who screened positive on a diabetes risk questionnaire in ADDITION-Denmark but were normoglycaemic following biochemical testing for use in this secondary analysis. After a median 8.9 years follow-up, we used data from national registers to compare rates of first CVD events and all-cause mortality in individuals in the routine care group with those in the intensive treatment group. RESULTS: In total, 21,513 individuals screened positive for high risk of diabetes but were normoglycaemic on biochemical testing in ADDITION-Denmark practices between 2001 and 2006 (10,289 in the routine care group and 11,224 in the intensive treatment group). During 9 years of follow-up, there were 3784 first CVD events and 1748 deaths. The incidence of CVD was lower among the intensive treatment group compared with the routine care group (HR 0.92 [95% CI 0.85, 0.99]). This association was stronger among individuals at highest CVD risk (heart SCORE ≥ 10; HR 0.85 [95% CI 0.75, 0.96]). There was no difference in mortality between the two treatment groups (HR 1.02 [95% CI 0.92, 1.14]). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Training of general practitioners to provide target-driven intensive management of blood glucose levels and other cardiovascular risk factors showed some evidence of a spillover effect on the risk of CVD over a 9 year period among individuals at high risk of diabetes. The effect was particularly pronounced among those at highest risk of CVD. There was no effect on mortality. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00237549.