Leveraging Electronic Health Records to Assess Residential Mobility Among Veterans in the Veterans Health Administration.

BACKGROUND: Residential mobility, or a change in residence, can influence health care utilization and outcomes. Health systems can leverage their patients' residential addresses stored in their electronic health records (EHRs) to better understand the relationships among patients' residences, mobility, and health. The Veteran Health Administration (VHA), with a unique nationwide network of health care systems and integrated EHR, holds greater potential for examining these relationships. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional analysis to examine the association of sociodemographics, clinical conditions, and residential mobility. We defined residential mobility by the number of VHA EHR residential addresses identified for each patient in a 1-year period (1/1-12/31/2018), with 2 different addresses indicating one move. We used generalized logistic regression to model the relationship between a priori selected correlates and residential mobility as a multinomial outcome (0, 1, ≥2 moves). RESULTS: In our sample, 84.4% (n=3,803,475) veterans had no move, 13.0% (n=587,765) had 1 move, and 2.6% (n=117,680) had ≥2 moves. In the multivariable analyses, women had greater odds of moving [aOR=1.11 (95% CI: 1.10,1.12) 1 move; 1.27 (1.25,1.30) ≥2 moves] than men. Veterans with substance use disorders also had greater odds of moving [aOR=1.26 (1.24,1.28) 1 move; 1.77 (1.72,1.81) ≥2 moves]. DISCUSSION: Our study suggests about 16% of veterans seen at VHA had at least 1 residential move in 2018. VHA data can be a resource to examine relationships between place, residential mobility, and health.

Risk factors for suicide among veterans living with and without HIV: a nested case-control study.

The rate of suicide among people with HIV (PWH) remains elevated compared to the general population. The aim of the study was to examine the association between a broad range of risk factors, HIV-specific risk factors, and suicide. We conducted a nested case-control study using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) between 2006 and 2015. The risk of suicide was estimated using conditional logistic regression and models were stratified by HIV status. Most risk factors associated with suicide were similar between PWH and people without HIV; these included affective disorders, use of benzodiazepines, and mental health treatment. Among PWH, HIV-specific risk factors were not associated with suicide. A multiplicative interaction was observed between a diagnosis of HIV and a previous suicide attempt. Among PWH, a high prevalence of psychiatric, substance use disorders and multimorbidity contribute to the risk of suicide.

RESUMEN: La tasa de suicidio entre las personas con VIH (PWH) sigue siendo elevada en comparación con la población general. El objetivo del estudio fue examinar la asociación entre un amplio rango de factores de riesgo, los riesgos específicos del VIH y el suicidio. Realizamos un estudio anidado de casos y controles usando datos del Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) entre 2006­2015. El riesgo de suicidio fue estimado mediante regresión logística condicional y los modelos se estratificaron por estado serológico. La mayoría de los factores de riesgo asociados con el suicidio fueron similares entre las PWH y las personas sin VIH; estos incluyeron trastornos afectivos, uso de benzodiazepinas y tratamiento de salud mental. Entre las PWH, los factores de riesgo específicos del VIH no se asociaron con el suicidio. Se observó una interacción multiplicativa entre un diagnóstico de VIH y un intento de suicidio previo. Entre las PWH, una alta prevalencia de trastornos psiquiátricos, por consumo de sustancias y multimorbilidad contribuyen al riesgo de suicidio.

A roadmap to artificial intelligence (AI): Methods for designing and building AI ready data to promote fairness.

OBJECTIVES: We evaluated methods for preparing electronic health record data to reduce bias before applying artificial intelligence (AI). METHODS: We created methods for transforming raw data into a data framework for applying machine learning and natural language processing techniques for predicting falls and fractures. Strategies such as inclusion and reporting for multiple races, mixed data sources such as outpatient, inpatient, structured codes, and unstructured notes, and addressing missingness were applied to raw data to promote a reduction in bias. The raw data was carefully curated using validated definitions to create data variables such as age, race, gender, and healthcare utilization. For the formation of these variables, clinical, statistical, and data expertise were used. The research team included a variety of experts with diverse professional and demographic backgrounds to include diverse perspectives. RESULTS: For the prediction of falls, information extracted from radiology reports was converted to a matrix for applying machine learning. The processing of the data resulted in an input of 5,377,673 reports to the machine learning algorithm, out of which 45,304 were flagged as positive and 5,332,369 as negative for falls. Processed data resulted in lower missingness and a better representation of race and diagnosis codes. For fractures, specialized algorithms extracted snippets of text around keywork "femoral" from dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans to identify femoral neck T-scores that are important for predicting fracture risk. The natural language processing algorithms yielded 98% accuracy and 2% error rate The methods to prepare data for input to artificial intelligence processes are reproducible and can be applied to other studies. CONCLUSION: The life cycle of data from raw to analytic form includes data governance, cleaning, management, and analysis. When applying artificial intelligence methods, input data must be prepared optimally to reduce algorithmic bias, as biased output is harmful. Building AI-ready data frameworks that improve efficiency can contribute to transparency and reproducibility. The roadmap for the application of AI involves applying specialized techniques to input data, some of which are suggested here. This study highlights data curation aspects to be considered when preparing data for the application of artificial intelligence to reduce bias.

The Impact of Blast Exposure-With or Without Traumatic Brain Injury-on Metabolic Abnormalities in Post-9/11 Veterans.

OBJECTIVE: The primary aim included explorations of: (1) the associations between the history of blast exposure (BE), close blast exposure (CBE), and blast-related traumatic brain injury (bTBI) and metabolic abnormality; and (2) the potential mediating effect of comorbid psychological and somatic conditions on these associations. The secondary aim explored the association of dose-response impact of BE, CBE, and bTBI and metabolic abnormality. SETTING: Data were collected by the Translational Research Center for TBI and Stress Disorders (TRACTS). PARTICIPANTS: Post-9/11 veterans from the TRACTS baseline sample who had conflict-zone deployment experience ( N = 734). DESIGN: Cross-sectional secondary data analysis. We computed relative risks (RRs) and 95% CI using modified Poisson regression. We quantified the impact of co-occurring psychological and somatic conditions on this association using mediation analyses. MAIN MEASURES: Exposures included BE (<100 m), CBE (<10 m), and bTBI. Metabolic abnormality outcomes included (1) overweight/obesity (defined by abnormal waist-hip ratio [WHR] and abnormal waist circumference [WC]); (2) glucose dysregulation; and (3) meeting criteria for cardiometabolic syndrome (defined by guidelines). RESULTS: The sample was majority male (91%) and White (68%), with a mean age of 34.6 years (SD = 8.99). Most participants had 1 or more BE (83%); 48% experienced 1 or more CBE. Overweight/obesity was highly prevalent in the sample (51% had abnormal WHR and 60% abnormal WC). There was no significant direct or indirect association between BE, CBE, and bTBI and metabolic abnormalities (RRs: 0.70-1.51; P 's > .05). CONCLUSION: Future research is needed to investigate the association of BE with metabolic abnormalities with larger, more targeted sample selection, and longer follow-up. Effective and sustainable weight management and metabolic health prevention interventions for this veteran cohort are needed.

A Systematic Review of Risk Factors for Suicide Among Persons Living with HIV (1996-2020).

Persons living with HIV (PWH) are at elevated risk for suicide. We conducted a systematic literature review following PRISMA-P guidelines to examine risk factors associated with suicide as a cause of morbidity among PWH. We searched six electronic databases using search terms (suicide, suicide attempt, self-harm, self-injurious behavior, HIV, AIDS, PWH). We focused on factors that were specific to HIV infection (CD4 count, HIV-1 RNA, and antiretroviral therapy [ART]). The initial search yielded N = 2657 studies. Eligible studies included suicide as an outcome, quantitative study design, and publication in peer-reviewed journals from 1996 through 2020. Fourteen studies met inclusion criteria. PWH share risk factors for suicide found in the general population: psychiatric illness, previous suicide attempt, drug and alcohol misuse. PWH also have HIV-specific risk factors for suicide. HIV diagnosis in the past two years and transmission related to injection drug use were associated with increased risk; HIV-1 RNA, ART, and AIDS-defining illness were not.

RESUMEN: Las personas viviendo con VIH (PVV) tienen riesgo elevado de suicidio. Realizamos un examen sistemático de la bibliografía, siguiendo las pautas PRISMA-P para examinar los factores de riesgo asociados con suicidio como la causa de morbilidad entre PVV. Realizamos búsquedas en seis bases de datos electrónicas mediante el uso de términos de búsqueda (suicidio, intento de suicidio, autolesiones, comportamiento autolesivo, VIH, AIDS). Nos hemos centrado en factores que eran específicos de la infección por VIH (recuento de CD4, ARN del VIH-1 y la terapia antirretroviral). La búsqueda inicial arrojó N = 2657 estudios. Los estudios seleccionados según criterio incluyeron muerte por suicidio, que el diseño del estudio fuera cuantitativo, y la publicación haya sido entre 1996 y 2020. 14 estudios cumplieron estos criterios de inclusión para el estudio. PVV comparten los mismos factores de riesgo de suicidio que se encuentran en la población general: enfermedad psiquiátrica, intento previo de suicidio, abuso de drogas y alcohol. PVV también poseen factores de riesgo de suicidio propios del VIH. El diagnóstico de VIH en los últimos dos años y la transmisión relacionada con el uso de drogas inyectables se asociaron con un mayor riesgo; mientras que el ARN del VIH-1, la terapia antirretroviral y las enfermedades definidas del SIDA no fueron asociadas con un mayor riesgo de suicidio.

Increased Fragility Fracture Rates in Older Men With Osteomyelitis.

In this study, we evaluated fracture incidence over a 10-year period among men with and without osteomyelitis from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study. Fracture incidence was significantly higher among those with osteomyelitis at all osteoporotic fracture sites after adjusting for key related risk factors. Future prospective studies are warranted.

Estimating healthcare mobility in the Veterans Affairs Healthcare System.

BACKGROUND: Healthcare mobility, defined as healthcare utilization in more than one distinct healthcare system, may have detrimental effects on outcomes of care. We characterized healthcare mobility and associated characteristics among a national sample of Veterans. METHODS: Using the Veterans Health Administration Electronic Health Record, we conducted a retrospective cohort study to quantify healthcare mobility within a four year period. We examined the association between sociodemographic and clinical characteristics and healthcare mobility, and characterized possible temporal and geographic patterns of healthcare mobility. RESULTS: Approximately nine percent of the sample were healthcare mobile. Younger Veterans, divorced or separated Veterans, and those with hepatitis C virus and psychiatric disorders were more likely to be healthcare mobile. We demonstrated two possible patterns of healthcare mobility, related to specialty care and lifestyle, in which Veterans repeatedly utilized two different healthcare systems. CONCLUSIONS: Healthcare mobility is associated with young age, marital status changes, and also diseases requiring intensive management. This type of mobility may affect disease prevention and management and has implications for healthcare systems that seek to improve population health.

Beyond the Pap Smear: Gender-responsive HIV Care for Women.

Women comprise nearly one-quarter of all people living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in the U.S. and 20 percent of incident annual cases. Though women overall are more likely than men to be diagnosed with HIV and engage in care, they are as unlikely to successfully achieve viral suppression with antiretroviral therapy, suggesting gender-based disparities that should be addressed by gender-responsive policies and programs. Using the socioecological model of health and syndemics theory, we comprehensively reviewed published literature to evaluate reasons for and ways to address gender differences in HIV risk and treatment. We discuss the biologic, sociocultural, interpersonal, and behavioral contexts of HIV risk that affect women, comprehensive healthcare for women with HIV that includes pregnancy planning or prevention, and policy implications.

Perceptions of Barriers and Facilitators During Implementation of a Complex Model of Group Prenatal Care in Six Urban Sites.

Group prenatal care improves perinatal outcomes, but implementing this complex model places substantial demands on settings designed for individual care. To describe perceived barriers and facilitators to implementing and sustaining CenteringPregnancy Plus (CP+) group prenatal care, 24 in-depth interviews were conducted with 22 clinicians, staff, administrators, and study personnel in six of the 14 sites of a randomized trial of the model. All sites served low-income, minority women. Sites for the present evaluation were selected for variation in location, study arm, and initial implementation response. Implementing CP+ was challenging in all sites, requiring substantial adaptations of clinical systems. All sites had barriers to meeting the model's demands, but how sites responded to these barriers affected whether implementation thrived or struggled. Thriving sites had organizational cultures that supported innovation, champions who advocated for CP+, and staff who viewed logistical demands as manageable hurdles. Struggling sites had bureaucratic organizational structures and lacked buy-in and financial resources, and staff were overwhelmed by the model's challenges. Findings suggested that implementing and sustaining health care innovation requires new practices and different ways of thinking, and health systems may not fully recognize the magnitude of change required. Consequently, evidence-based practices are modified or discontinued, and outcomes may differ from those in the original controlled studies. Before implementing new models of care, clinical settings should anticipate model demands and assess capacity for adapting to the disruptions of innovation.

STI diagnosis and HIV testing among OEF/OIF/OND veterans.

IMPORTANCE: Patients with sexually transmitted infection (STI) diagnosis should be tested for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), regardless of previous HIV test results. OBJECTIVE: Estimate HIV testing rates among recent service Veterans with an STI diagnosis and variation in testing rates by patient characteristics. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: The sample comprised 243,843 Veterans who initiated Veterans Health Administration (VHA) services within 1 year after military separation. Participants were followed for 2 years to determine STI diagnoses and HIV testing rates. We used relative risks regression to examine variation in testing rates. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: We used VHA administrative data to identify STI diagnoses and HIV testing and results. RESULTS: Veterans with an STI diagnosis (n = 1815) had higher HIV testing rates than those without (34.9% vs. 7.3%, P<0.0001), but were not more likely to have a positive test result (1.1% vs. 1.4%, P = 0.53). Among Veterans with an STI diagnosis, testing increased from 25% to 45% over the observation period; older age was associated with a lower rate of testing, whereas race and ethnicity, multiple deployments, posttraumatic stress disorder, and substance abuse disorders were associated with a higher rate. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Since VHA implemented routine HIV testing, overall rates of testing have increased. However, among Veterans at significant risk for HIV because of an STI diagnosis, only 45% had an HIV test in the most recent year of observation. Other patient characteristics such as alcohol and drug abuse were associated with being tested for HIV. Providers should be reminded that an STI is a sufficient reason to test for HIV.

Women, Aging, and HIV: Clinical Issues and Management Strategies.

Women are living longer with HIV infection. How best to manage the multiple co-morbidities and polypharmacy that are a hallmark of HIV infected individuals has not been studied. We explore incorporating principles of gerontology, particularly multimorbidity and polypharmacy, to optimize the health of HIV infected women. Multimorbidity and polypharmacy are important issues for HIV infected women. Incorporating a gerontologic approach may optimize outcomes until research provides more definitive answers as to how best to collaborate with HIV infected women to provide them with optimal care. A case study is used to guide the discussion.

Self-injurious unnatural death among Veterans with HIV: a nested case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: People living with HIV (PWH) are at increased risk of suicide and death from unintentional causes compared with people living without HIV. Broadening the categorization of death from suicide to self-injurious unnatural death (SIUD) may better identify a more complete set of modifiable risk factors that could be targeted for prevention efforts among PWH. DESIGN: We conducted a nested case-control study using data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS), a longitudinal, observational cohort of Veterans from 2006-2015. A total of 5,036 Veterans with HIV, of whom 461 died by SIUD, were included in the sample. METHODS: SIUD was defined using the International Classification of Disease 10th revision cause of death codes. Cases (n = 461) included individuals who died by SIUD (intentional, unintentional, and undetermined causes of death). Controls (n = 4,575) were selected using incidence density sampling, matching on date of birth ± one year, race, sex, and HIV status. SIUD and suicide was estimated using conditional logistic regression. RESULTS: A previous suicide attempt, a diagnosis of an affective disorder, recent use of benzodiazepines, psychiatric hospitalization, and living in the western US significantly increased the risk of suicide and SIUD. Risk factors that appear more important for SIUD than for suicide included a drug use disorder, alcohol use disorder, Hepatitis C, VACS Index 2.0, current smoking, and high pain levels (7-10). CONCLUSION: Limiting studies to known suicides obscures the larger public health burden of excess deaths from self-injurious behavior. Our findings demonstrate the benefit of expanding the focus to SIUD for the identification of modifiable risk factors that could be targeted for treatment.

Physiologic frailty and fragility fracture in HIV-infected male veterans.

BACKGROUND: The Veterans Aging Cohort Study (VACS) Index is associated with all-cause mortality in individuals infected with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). It is also associated with markers of inflammation and may thus reflect physiologic frailty. This analysis explores the association between physiologic frailty, as assessed by the VACS Index, and fragility fracture. METHODS: HIV-infected men from VACS were included. We identified hip, vertebral, and upper arm fractures using ICD-9-CM codes. We used Cox regression models to assess fragility fracture risk factors including the VACS Index, its components (age, hepatitis C status, FIB-4 score, estimated glomerular filtration rate, hemoglobin, HIV RNA, CD4 count), and previously identified risk factors for fragility fractures. RESULTS: We included 40 115 HIV-infected male Veterans. They experienced 588 first fragility fractures over 6.0 ± 3.9 years. The VACS Index score (hazard ratio [HR], 1.15; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.11-1.19), white race (HR, 1.92; 95% CI, 1.63-2.28), body mass index (HR, 0.94; 95% CI, .92-.96), alcohol-related diagnoses (HR, 1.65; 95% CI, 1.26-2.17), cerebrovascular disease (HR, 1.95; 95% CI, 1.14-3.33), proton pump inhibitor use (HR, 1.87; 95% CI, 1.54-2.27), and protease inhibitor use (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04-1.50) were associated with fracture risk. Components of the VACS Index score most strongly associated with fracture risk were age (HR, 1.40; 95% CI, 1.27-1.54), log HIV RNA (HR, 0.91; 95% CI, .88-.94), and hemoglobin level (HR, 0.82; 95% CI, .78-.86). CONCLUSIONS: Frailty, as measured by the VACS Index, is an important predictor of fragility fractures among HIV-infected male Veterans.

A proposal for quality standards for measuring medication adherence in research.

A decade after widespread recognition that adherence to medication regimens is key to antiretroviral effectiveness, considerable controversy remains regarding a "gold standard" for adherence measurement. Each adherence measurement approach has strengths and weaknesses and each rests on specific assumptions. The range of assumptions regarding adherence measurement and the diversity with which each approach is implemented strongly suggest that the evaluation of a particular measure outside of the context in which it was used (e.g. the study's operational protocol) may result in undeserved confidence or lack of confidence in study results. The purpose of this paper is to propose a set of best practices across commonly used measurement methods. Recommendations regarding what information should be included in published reports regarding how adherence was measured are provided to promote improvement in the quality of measurement of medication adherence in research.

A Roadmap to Artificial Intelligence (AI): Methods for Designing and Building AI ready Data for Women's Health Studies.

Objectives: Evaluating methods for building data frameworks for application of AI in large scale datasets for women's health studies. Methods: We created methods for transforming raw data to a data framework for applying machine learning (ML) and natural language processing (NLP) techniques for predicting falls and fractures. Results: Prediction of falls was higher in women compared to men. Information extracted from radiology reports was converted to a matrix for applying machine learning. For fractures, by applying specialized algorithms, we extracted snippets from dual x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) scans for meaningful terms usable for predicting fracture risk. Discussion: Life cycle of data from raw to analytic form includes data governance, cleaning, management, and analysis. For applying AI, data must be prepared optimally to reduce algorithmic bias. Conclusion: Algorithmic bias is harmful for research using AI methods. Building AI ready data frameworks that improve efficiency can be especially valuable for women's health.

Equity and use of telehealth modalities among people living with HIV during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background: COVID-19 forced a rapid transition to telehealth. Little is known about the use of telephone versus video visits among people living with or at risk for HIV (PWH). Setting: We studied electronic health record data from an urban HIV clinic. Our sample included visit- and person-level data. Visit-level data came from appointments scheduled from 30 March 2020 to 31 May 2020. Person-level data came from patients 18+ years of age who completed at least one telephone or video visit during the period of interest. Methods: We performed a cross-sectional analysis. Our primary outcome was telehealth modality (telephone or video). We compared visit completion status by telehealth modality. We evaluated associations between patient characteristics and telehealth modality using logistic regression. Results: In total, 1742 visits included information on telehealth modality: 1432 telephone (82%) and 310 (18%) video visits. 77% of telephone visits were completed compared to 75% of video visits (p = 0.449). The clinic recorded 643 completed telehealth visits in April and 623 in May 2020. The proportion of telephone visits decreased from 84% in April to 79% in May (p = 0.031). Most patients participated in telephone versus video visits (415 vs. 88 patients). Older age (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] 3.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.37-7.82) and Black race (AOR 2.42; 95% CI, 1.20-4.49) were positively associated with telephone visits. Patient portal enrollment (AOR 0.06; 95% CI, 0.02-0.16) was negatively associated with telephone visits. Conclusion: PWH used telephone more than video visits, suggesting that telephone visits are a vital healthcare resource for this population.

Assessing the contributions of modifiable risk factors to serious falls and fragility fractures among older persons living with HIV.

BACKGROUND: Although 50 years represents middle age among uninfected individuals, studies have shown that persons living with HIV (PWH) begin to demonstrate elevated risk for serious falls and fragility fractures in the sixth decade; the proportions of these outcomes attributable to modifiable factors are unknown. METHODS: We analyzed 21,041 older PWH on antiretroviral therapy (ART) from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study from 01/01/2010 through 09/30/2015. Serious falls were identified by Ecodes and a machine-learning algorithm applied to radiology reports. Fragility fractures (hip, vertebral, and upper arm) were identified using ICD9 codes. Predictors for both models included a serious fall within the past 12 months, body mass index, physiologic frailty (VACS Index 2.0), illicit substance and alcohol use disorders, and measures of multimorbidity and polypharmacy. We separately fit multivariable logistic models to each outcome using generalized estimating equations. From these models, the longitudinal extensions of average attributable fraction (LE-AAF) for modifiable risk factors were estimated. RESULTS: Key risk factors for both outcomes included physiologic frailty (VACS Index 2.0) (serious falls [15%; 95% CI 14%-15%]; fractures [13%; 95% CI 12%-14%]), a serious fall in the past year (serious falls [7%; 95% CI 7%-7%]; fractures [5%; 95% CI 4%-5%]), polypharmacy (serious falls [5%; 95% CI 4%-5%]; fractures [5%; 95% CI 4%-5%]), an opioid prescription in the past month (serious falls [7%; 95% CI 6%-7%]; fractures [9%; 95% CI 8%-9%]), and diagnosis of alcohol use disorder (serious falls [4%; 95% CI 4%-5%]; fractures [8%; 95% CI 7%-8%]). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the contributions of risk factors important in the general population to both serious falls and fragility fractures among older PWH. Successful prevention programs for these outcomes should build on existing prevention efforts while including risk factors specific to PWH.

Performance of a modified fracture risk assessment tool for fragility fracture prediction among older veterans living with HIV.

OBJECTIVE: Fragility fractures (fractures) are a critical outcome for persons aging with HIV (PAH). Research suggests that the fracture risk assessment tool (FRAX) only modestly estimates fracture risk among PAH. We provide an updated evaluation of how well a 'modified FRAX' identifies PAH at risk for fractures in a contemporary HIV cohort. DESIGN: Cohort study. METHODS: We used data from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study to evaluate veterans living with HIV, aged 50+ years, for the occurrence of fractures from 1 January 2010 through 31 December 2019. Data from 2009 were used to evaluate the eight FRAX predictors available to us: age, sex, BMI, history of previous fracture, glucocorticoid use, rheumatoid arthritis, alcohol use, and smoking status. These predictor values were then used to estimate participant risk for each of two types of fractures (major osteoporotic and hip) over the subsequent 10 years in strata defined by race/ethnicity using multivariable logistic regression. RESULTS: Discrimination for major osteoporotic fracture was modest [Blacks: area under the curve (AUC) 0.62; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.62, 0.63; Whites: AUC 0.61; 95% CI 0.60, 0.61; Hispanic: AUC 0.63; 95% CI 0.62, 0.65]. For hip fractures, discrimination was modest to good (Blacks: AUC 0.70; 95% CI 0.69, 0.71; Whites: AUC 0.68; 95% CI 0.67, 0.69]. Calibration was good in all models across all racial/ethnic groups. CONCLUSION: Our 'modified FRAX' exhibited modest discrimination for predicting major osteoporotic fracture and slightly better discrimination for hip fracture. Future studies should explore whether augmentation of this subset of FRAX predictors results in enhanced prediction of fractures among PAH.

Predictive Risk Model for Serious Falls Among Older Persons Living With HIV.

BACKGROUND: Older (older than 50 years) persons living with HIV (PWH) are at elevated risk for falls. We explored how well our algorithm for predicting falls in a general population of middle-aged Veterans (age 45-65 years) worked among older PWH who use antiretroviral therapy (ART) and whether model fit improved with inclusion of specific ART classes. METHODS: This analysis included 304,951 six-month person-intervals over a 15-year period (2001-2015) contributed by 26,373 older PWH from the Veterans Aging Cohort Study who were taking ART. Serious falls (those falls warranting a visit to a health care provider) were identified by external cause of injury codes and a machine-learning algorithm applied to radiology reports. Potential predictors included a fall within the past 12 months, demographics, body mass index, Veterans Aging Cohort Study Index 2.0 score, substance use, and measures of multimorbidity and polypharmacy. We assessed discrimination and calibration from application of the original coefficients (model derived from middle-aged Veterans) to older PWH and then reassessed by refitting the model using multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. We also explored whether model performance improved with indicators of ART classes. RESULTS: With application of the original coefficients, discrimination was good (C-statistic 0.725; 95% CI: 0.719 to 0.730) but calibration was poor. After refitting the model, both discrimination (C-statistic 0.732; 95% CI: 0.727 to 0.734) and calibration were good. Including ART classes did not improve model performance. CONCLUSIONS: After refitting their coefficients, the same variables predicted risk of serious falls among older PWH nearly and they had among middle-aged Veterans.

Brief Report: Are Serious Falls Associated With Subsequent Fragility Fractures Among Veterans Living With HIV?

BACKGROUND: The extensive research on falls and fragility fractures among persons living with HIV (PWH) has not explored the association between serious falls and subsequent fragility fracture. We explored this association. SETTING: Veterans Aging Cohort Study. METHODS: This analysis included 304,951 6-month person- intervals over a 15-year period (2001-2015) contributed by 26,373 PWH who were 50+ years of age (mean age 55 years) and taking antiretroviral therapy (ART). Serious falls (those falls significant enough to result in a visit to a health care provider) were identified by the external cause of injury codes and a machine learning algorithm applied to radiology reports. Fragility fractures were identified using ICD9 codes and included hip fracture, vertebral fractures, and upper arm fracture and were modeled with multivariable logistic regression with generalized estimating equations. RESULTS: After adjustment, serious falls in the previous year were associated with increased risk of fragility fracture [odds ratio (OR) 2.10; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.83 to 2.41]. The use of integrase inhibitors was the only ART risk factor (OR 1.17; 95% CI: 1.03 to 1.33). Other risk factors included the diagnosis of alcohol use disorder (OR 1.49; 95% CI: 1.31 to 1.70) and having a prescription for an opioid in the previous 6 months (OR 1.40; 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.53). CONCLUSIONS: Serious falls within the past year are strongly associated with fragility fractures among PWH on ART-largely a middle-aged population-much as they are among older adults in the general population.