Estimating seasonal variation in Australian pertussis notifications from 1991 to 2016: evidence of spring to summer peaks.

Unlike for many other respiratory infections, the seasonality of pertussis is not well understood. While evidence of seasonal fluctuations in pertussis incidence has been noted in some countries, there have been conflicting findings including in the context of Australia. We investigated this issue by analysing the seasonality of pertussis notifications in Australia using monthly data from January 1991 to December 2016. Data were made available for all states and territories in Australia except for the Australian Capital Territory and were stratified into age groups. Using a time-series decomposition approach, we formulated a generalised additive model where seasonality is expressed using cosinor terms to estimate the amplitude and peak timing of pertussis notifications in Australia. We also compared these characteristics across different jurisdictions and age groups. We found evidence that pertussis notifications exhibit seasonality, with peaks observed during the spring and summer months (November-January) in Australia and across different states and territories. During peak months, notifications are expected to increase by about 15% compared with the yearly average. Peak notifications for children <5 years occurred 1-2 months later than the general population, which provides support to the theory that older household members remain an important source of pertussis infection for younger children. In addition, our results provide a more comprehensive spatial picture of seasonality in Australia, a feature lacking in previous studies. Finally, our findings suggest that seasonal forcing may be useful to consider in future population transmission models of pertussis.

Pneumonia hospitalisation and case-fatality rates in older Australians with and without risk factors for pneumococcal disease: implications for vaccine policy.

Community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) results in substantial numbers of hospitalisations and deaths in older adults. There are known lifestyle and medical risk factors for pneumococcal disease but the magnitude of the additional risk is not well quantified in Australia. We used a large population-based prospective cohort study of older adults in the state of New South Wales (45 and Up Study) linked to cause-specific hospitalisations, disease notifications and death registrations from 2006 to 2015. We estimated the age-specific incidence of CAP hospitalisation (ICD-10 J12-18), invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD) notification and presumptive non-invasive pneumococcal CAP hospitalisation (J13 + J18.1, excluding IPD), comparing those with at least one risk factor to those with no risk factors. The hospitalised case-fatality rate (CFR) included deaths in a 30-day window after hospitalisation. Among 266 951 participants followed for 1 850 000 person-years there were 8747 first hospitalisations for CAP, 157 IPD notifications and 305 non-invasive pneumococcal CAP hospitalisations. In persons 65-84 years, 54.7% had at least one identified risk factor, increasing to 57.0% in those ⩾85 years. The incidence of CAP hospitalisation in those ⩾65 years with at least one risk factor was twofold higher than in those without risk factors, 1091/100 000 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1060-1122) compared with 522/100 000 (95% CI 501-545) and IPD in equivalent groups was almost threefold higher (18.40/100 000 (95% CI 14.61-22.87) vs. 6.82/100 000 (95% CI 4.56-9.79)). The CFR increased with age but there were limited difference by risk status, except in those aged 45 to 64 years. Adults ⩾65 years with at least one risk factor have much higher rates of CAP and IPD suggesting that additional risk factor-based vaccination strategies may be cost-effective.

Estimating the critical immunity threshold for preventing hepatitis A outbreaks in men who have sex with men.

Several outbreaks of hepatitis A in men who have sex with men (MSM) were reported in the 1980s and 1990s in Australia and other countries. An effective hepatitis A virus (HAV) vaccine has been available in Australia since 1994 and is recommended for high-risk groups including MSM. No outbreaks of hepatitis A in Australian MSM have been reported since 1996. In this study, we aimed to estimate HAV transmissibility in MSM populations in order to inform targets for vaccine coverage in such populations. We used mathematical models of HAV transmission in a MSM population to estimate the basic reproduction number (R 0) and the probability of an HAV epidemic occurring as a function of the immune proportion. We estimated a plausible range for R 0 of 1·71-3·67 for HAV in MSM and that sustained epidemics cannot occur once the proportion immune to HAV is greater than ~70%. To our knowledge this is the first estimate of R 0 and the critical population immunity threshold for HAV transmission in MSM. As HAV is no longer endemic in Australia or in most other developed countries, vaccination is the only means of maintaining population immunity >70%. Our findings provide impetus to promote HAV vaccination in high-risk groups such as MSM.

Revisiting Styblo's law: could mathematical models aid in estimating incidence from prevalence data?

Estimation of the true incidence of tuberculosis (TB) is challenging. The approach proposed by Styblo in 1985 is known to be inaccurate in the modern era where there is widespread availability of treatment for TB. This study re-examines the relationship of incidence to prevalence and other disease indicators that can be derived from surveys. We adapt a simple, previously published model that describes the epidemiology of TB in the presence of treatment to investigate a revised ratio-based approach to estimating incidence. We show that, following changes to treatment programmes for TB, the ratio of incidence to prevalence reaches an equilibrium value rapidly; long before other model indicators have stabilized. We also show that this ratio relies on few parameters but is strongly dependent on, and requires knowledge of, the efficacy and timeliness of treatment.

Control of varicella in the post-vaccination era in Australia: a model-based assessment of catch-up and infant vaccination strategies for the future.

In Australia, varicella vaccine was universally funded in late 2005 as a single dose at 18 months. A school-based catch-up programme for children aged 10-13 years without a history of infection or vaccination was funded until 2015, when those eligible for universal infant vaccination would have reached the age of high school entry. This study projects the impact of discontinuing catch-up vaccination on varicella and zoster incidence and morbidity using a transmission dynamic model, in comparison with alternative policy options, including two-dose strategies. At current vaccine coverage (83% at 2 years and 90% at 5 years), ceasing the adolescent catch-up programme in 2015 was projected to increase varicella-associated morbidity between 2035 and 2050 by 39%. Although two-dose infant programmes had the lowest estimated varicella morbidity, the incremental benefit from the second dose fell by 70% if first dose coverage increased from 83% to 95% by age 24 months. Overall zoster morbidity was predicted to rise after vaccination, but differences between strategies were small. Our results suggest that feasibility of one-dose coverage approaching 95% is an important consideration in estimating incremental benefit from a second dose of varicella vaccine.

Influenza-attributable mortality in Australians aged more than 50 years: a comparison of different modelling approaches.

This study aimed to compare systematically approaches to estimating influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians. Using monthly age-specific death data together with viral surveillance counts for influenza and respiratory syncytial virus, we explored two of the most frequently used methods of estimating excess influenza-attributable disease: Poisson and Serfling regression models. These approaches produced consistent age and temporal patterns in estimates of influenza-attributable mortality in older Australians but some variation in the magnitude of the disease burden. Of Australians aged >50 years, average annual estimated influenza-attributable deaths (all cause) ranged from 2314 to 3457 for the Serfling and Poisson regression models, respectively. The excess influenza-attributable disease burden was substantial under all approaches.

Modelling the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination regimens on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus in Australia.

We examined the impact of one-dose vs. two-dose vaccination strategies on the epidemiology of varicella zoster virus (VZV) in Australia, using a mathematical model. Strategies were assessed in terms of varicella (natural and breakthrough) and zoster incidence, morbidity, average age of infection and vaccine effectiveness (VE). Our modelling results suggest that compared to a one-dose vaccination strategy (Australia's current vaccination schedule), a two-dose strategy is expected to not only produce less natural varicella cases (5% vs. 13% of pre-vaccination state, respectively) but also considerably fewer breakthrough varicella cases (only 11.4% of one-dose strategy). Therefore a two-dose infant vaccination programme would be a better long-term strategy for Australia.

Delay-adjusted age- and sex-specific case fatality rates for COVID-19 in South Korea: Evolution in the estimated risk of mortality throughout the epidemic.

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to estimate delay-adjusted case fatality rates (CFRs) for COVID-19 in South Korea, and evaluate how these estimates have evolved over time throughout the epidemic. METHODS: Public data from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (KCDC) were used to estimate age- and sex-specific CFRs for COVID-19 in South Korea up to June 12, 2020. We applied statistical methods previously developed to adjust for the delay between diagnosis and death, and presented both delay-adjusted and crude (unadjusted) CFRs throughout the epidemic. RESULTS: The overall estimated delay-adjusted CFR was 2.39% (3.05% for males and 1.92% for females). Within each age strata where deaths were reported, males were found to have significantly higher CFRs than females. The estimated CFRs increased substantially from age 60 years in males and from 70 years in females. Both the delay-adjusted and crude CFRs were found to have evolved substantially, particularly early in the epidemic, converging only from mid-April 2020. CONCLUSIONS: The CFRs for South Korea provide an estimate of mortality risk in a setting where case ascertainment is likely to be more complete. The evolution in CFRs throughout the epidemic highlights the need for caution when interpreting CFRs calculated at a given time point.

Contributions of lipids and proteins to the surface charge of membranes. An electron microscopy study with cationized and anionized ferritin.

The surface charge of cultured neurons was investigated with the electron microscope markers anionized ferritin (AF) and cationized ferritin (CF). To determine which membrane components could react with the markers, model reactions were used. Both protein-coated Sepharose beads and lipid vesicles were reacted at physiological pH. Results with these model reactions indicate that the following groups may contribute to the surface charge: acidic groups--the sialic acid of both glycoproteins and gangliosides, the carboxyl group of proteins, and the phosphates of phospholipids; basic groups--the amines of proteins. The effect of chemical fixation on the surface charge was investigated. Glutaraldehyde fixation was shown to increase the charge of neutral proteins but not by a mechanism involving unbound aldehydes. Glutaraldehyde fixation of phospholipid vesicles in the presence of CF showed that amine-containing phospholipids were cross-linked to CF. This cross-linkage was seen with the electron microscope as the clumping of CF and the burying of CF in the membrane. Paraformaldehyde fixation had a lesser effect on the charge of proteins but did react with phospholipids as did glutaraldehyde. It is concluded that at physiological pH: (a) most of the charged proteins and lipids on cell surface can contribute to the membrane surface charge, and (b) the membrane surface charge of cells can be greatly changed by chemical fixation.

The visualization of concanavalin A binding sites in Purkinje cell somata and dendrites of rat cerebellum.

The localization of concanavalin A (Con A) binding sites in Purkinje cell somata and dendrites has been studied using a peroxidase labeling technique. In the somata, the nuclear, Golgi, and endoplasmic reticulum (ER) membranes are rich in Con A binding sites. The hypolemmal cisternae, which are continuous with the ER from the soma and throughout the dendritic tree of Purkinje cells, are also rich in Con A binding sites. Other cisternae seen in these dendrites do not bind detectable amounts of Con A. The results suggest that a cisternal system, rich in carbohydrate, may be continuous from the nuclear envelope to distal dendritic segments of Purkinje cells. Such a system could play a role in the movement of materials from Purkinje somata to dendrites.

Immunocytochemical localization of calmodulin and a heat-labile calmodulin-binding protein (CaM-BP80) in basal ganglia of mouse brain.

Antisera to calmodulin, a Ca2%-dependent modulator protein, and a heat-labile calmodulin-binding protein have been used to localize these proteins in mouse caudate-putamen. The two proteins appear to be located at identical sites in this brain area. At the light microscopic level, calmodulin and calmodulin-binding protein are found within the cytoplasm and processes of large cells. At the electron microscopic level the proteins are associated with neuronal elements only, primarily at postsynaptic sites within neuronal somata and dendrites. Within the dendrites the immunocytochemical label is associated predominantly with the postsynaptic density and dendritic microtubules. These results are in accord with recent biochemical and immunihistochemical studies of calmodulin in brain and in dividing cells. Thus, calmodulin and the heat-labile calmodulin-binding protein may play a role in the nervous system at the site of neurotransmitter action and at the level of microtubular function.

Immunocytochemical localization of coated vesicle protein in rodent nervous system.

Immunocytochemistry has been used to study the distribution of the major 180,000-mol wt protein of coated vesicles in rodent cerebellum. An antibody to the coat protein was prepared in rabbits and characterized by immunodiffusion and immunofixation of polyacrylamide gels. At the light microscope level the protein was primarily localized in punctate profiles surrounding Purkinje cells and within the cerebellar glomeruli. At the electron microscope level the punctate distribution was confined to presynaptic terminals of basket and Golgi II neurons as well as mossy fiber terminals of the glomeruli. This label was heaviest on the lattice coat of coated vesicles but, in addition, label was found within the presynaptic axoplasm and along the cytoplasmic surface of the plasmalemma. Coated vesicles in cell somata were labeled as well as the cytosol around groupings of these vesicles. These data suggest that there may be two forms (or more) of coated vesicle protein in neurons, a lattice form associated with coated vesicles and a soluble form associated with the cytoplasmic matrix.

Within-season influenza vaccine waning suggests potential net benefits to delayed vaccination in older adults in the United States.

BACKGROUND: There is growing evidence that there is within (intra-) season waning of influenza vaccine protection in older adults, suggesting there may be a benefit to giving influenza vaccine closer to the time of increased infection risk. We aimed to quantitatively evaluate the impact of modifying the timing of influenza vaccination in U.S. older adults. METHODS: Using historical data (2010/2011-2015/2016, inclusive) on influenza activity and vaccine uptake, we explore the optimal time to begin vaccinating older adults (≥65 years) in the U.S. to maximize prevention of influenza. We modelled the effect of changing the timing of vaccination by estimating the percentage change to the current disease burden and used this to calculate the estimated optimal week to begin vaccination in the U.S. RESULTS: When we assumed a relatively slower waning protection rate (over 52 weeks), the estimated optimal time to begin vaccinating those aged ≥65 years varied between mid-August (week 34, 2012-2013) and mid-late October (week 43, 2011-2012) depending on the season, resulting in 0.44% and 5.11% of the current disease burden prevented respectively. Under faster waning (over 26 weeks), the estimated optimal week varied between early September (week 37, 2012-2013) and mid-November (week 47, 2011-2012), resulting in 3.69% and 11.97% of the current disease burden prevented respectively. CONCLUSIONS: While it is difficult to determine the ideal time to start to vaccinate due to substantial variation in timing of individual seasons, we found that there are potentially substantial benefits to minimizing the time between vaccination and influenza activity in U.S. older adults. Modest delays in immunization were beneficial in the seasons we evaluated. If further evidence suggests fast waning, longer delays may be warrant as in these scenarios the timing of the current vaccination was often very suboptimal.

The role of timeliness in the cost-effectiveness of older adult vaccination: A case study of pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in Australia.

While the impact of the timeliness of vaccine administration has been well-studied for childhood vaccinations, there has been little detailed quantitative analysis on the potential impact of the timeliness of vaccinations in older adults. The aim of this study was to explore the impact of implementing more realistic observed uptake distributions, taking into the account reduced vaccine efficacy but higher pneumococcal disease burden with increasing age beyond 65 years. A multi-cohort Markov model was constructed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of a pneumococcal (PCV13) immunisation program in Australia, assuming two different uptake modelling approaches. The approach using an estimate of observed uptake was compared with a scenario in which the total cumulative uptake was delivered at the recommended age of vaccination. We found these two approaches produced different results both in terms of cases prevented and cost-effectiveness. The impact of the non-timely uptake in adult programs may sometimes have positive and other times negative effects, depending on several factors including the age-specific disease rates and the duration of vaccine protection. Our study highlights the importance of using realistic assumptions around uptake (including non-timely vaccination) when estimating the impact of vaccination in adults.

Beyond expectations: Post-implementation data shows rotavirus vaccination is likely cost-saving in Australia.

BACKGROUND: Universal vaccination against rotavirus was included in the funded Australian National Immunisation Program in July 2007. Predictive cost-effectiveness models assessed the program before introduction. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective economic evaluation of the Australian rotavirus program using national level post-implementation data on vaccine uptake, before-after measures of program impact and published estimates of excess intussusception cases. These data were used as inputs into a multi-cohort compartmental model which assigned cost and quality of life estimates to relevant health states, adopting a healthcare payer perspective. The primary outcome was discounted cost per quality adjusted life year gained, including or excluding unspecified acute gastroenteritis (AGE) hospitalisations. RESULTS: Relative to the baseline period (1997-2006), over the 6years (2007-2012) after implementation of the rotavirus program, we estimated that ∼77,000 hospitalisations (17,000 coded rotavirus and 60,000 unspecified AGE) and ∼3 deaths were prevented, compared with an estimated excess of 78 cases of intussusception. Approximately 90% of hospitalisations prevented were in children <5years, with evidence of herd protection in older age groups. The program was cost-saving when observed changes (declines) in both hospitalisations coded as rotavirus and as unspecified AGE were attributed to the rotavirus vaccine program. The adverse impact of estimated excess cases of intussusception was far outweighed by the benefits of the program. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of herd impact and declines in unspecified AGE hospitalisations resulted in the value for money achieved by the Australian rotavirus immunisation program being substantially greater than predicted bypre-implementation models, despite the potential increased cases of intussusception. This Australian experience is likely to be relevant to high-income countries yet to implement rotavirus vaccination programs.

Cost-effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) in older Australians.

BACKGROUND: The 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPV23) has been funded under the Australia National Immunisation Program (NIP) since January 2005 for those aged >65years and other risk groups. In 2016, PCV13 was accepted by the Pharmaceutical Benefits Advisory Committee (PBAC) as a replacement for a single dose of PPV23 in older Australian adults. METHODS: A single-cohort deterministic multi-compartment (Markov) model was developed describing the transition of the population between different invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal disease related health states. We applied a healthcare system perspective with costs (Australian dollars, A$) and health effects (measured in quality adjusted life-years, QALYs) attached to model states and discounted at 5% annually. We explored replacement of PPV23 with PCV13 at 65years as well as other age based vaccination strategies. Parameter uncertainty was explored using deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: In a single cohort, we estimated PCV13 vaccination at the age of 65years to cost ∼A$11,120,000 and prevent 39 hospitalisations and 6 deaths from invasive pneumococcal disease and 180 hospitalisations and 10 deaths from community acquired pneumonia. The PCV13 program had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of ∼A$88,100 per QALY gained when compared to a no-vaccination, whereas PPV23 was ∼A$297,200 per QALY gained. To fall under a cost-effectiveness threshold of A$60,000 per QALY, PCV13 would have to be priced below ∼A$46 per dose. The cost-effectiveness of PCV13 in comparison to PPV23 was ∼A$35,300 per QALY gained. CONCLUSION: In comparison to no-vaccination, we found PCV13 use in those aged 65years was unlikely to be cost-effective unless the vaccine price was below A$46 or a longer duration of protection can be established. However, we found that in comparison to the PPV23, vaccination with PCV13 was cost-effective. This partly reflects the poor value for money estimated for PPV23 use in Australia.

Immunocytochemical evidence for phorbol ester-induced directional translocations of protein kinase C in HL60, K562, CHO, and E7SKS cells: possible role in differentiation.

The effects of phorbol ester 12-O-tetradecanoylphorbol-13-acetate (TPA) on the directions of protein kinase C (PKC) translocation in two leukemic cell lines (HL60 and K562) and two fibroblastic cell lines (CHO and E7SKS), related to their susceptibility to the differentiating effect of TPA, were examined. Immunocytochemical evidence indicated that TPA induced a redistribution (outward) of PKC to the plasma membrane in TPA-sensitive HL60 cells, whereas it caused a translocation (inward) of the enzyme to the nucleus or the perinuclear region in K562, CHO, and E7SKS cells, which are resistant to TPA in terms of cell growth and differentiation. Immunoblot analysis of the nuclear proteins from K562 cells revealed that TPA induced an increase in the amount of immunoreactive proteins. TPA, however, did not increase the amount of these immunoreactive species in nuclei isolated from CHO and E7SKS cells, indicating that the translocated PKC was associated only with perinuclear structures of the TPA-treated cells. It is suggested that directional redistribution of PKC to the plasma membrane, as opposed to the nuclear and perinuclear region, might represent an early event required for the TPA-induced differentiation and maturation of HL60 cells.

Retrospective economic evaluation of childhood 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccination in Australia: Uncertain herd impact on pneumonia critical.

BACKGROUND: Retrospective cost-effectiveness analyses of vaccination programs using routinely collected post-implementation data are sparse by comparison with pre-program analyses. We performed a retrospective economic evaluation of the childhood 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV7) program in Australia. METHODS: We developed a deterministic multi-compartment model that describes health states related to invasive and non-invasive pneumococcal disease. Costs (Australian dollars, A$) and health effects (quality-adjusted life years, QALYs) were attached to model states. The perspective for costs was that of the healthcare system and government. Where possible, we used observed changes in the disease rates from national surveillance and healthcare databases to estimate the impact of the PCV7 program (2005-2010). We stratified our cost-effectiveness results into alternative scenarios which differed by the outcome states included. Parameter uncertainty was explored using probabilistic sensitivity analysis. RESULTS: The PCV7 program was estimated to have prevented ∼5900 hospitalisations and ∼160 deaths from invasive pneumococcal disease (IPD). Approximately half of these were prevented in adults via herd protection. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was ∼A$161,000 per QALY gained when including only IPD-related outcomes. The cost-effectiveness of PCV7 remained in the range A$88,000-$122,000 when changes in various non-invasive disease states were included. The inclusion of observed changes in adult non-invasive pneumonia deaths substantially improved cost-effectiveness (∼A$9000 per QALY gained). CONCLUSION: Using the initial vaccine price negotiated for Australia, the PCV7 program was unlikely to have been cost-effective (at conventional thresholds) unless observed reductions in non-invasive pneumonia deaths in the elderly are attributed to it. Further analyses are required to explore this finding, which has significant implications for the incremental benefit achievable by adult PCV programs.

Phase I pharmacokinetic study of multicycle high-dose carboplatin followed by peripheral-blood stem-cell infusion in patients with cancer.

PURPOSE: To examine the feasibility of escalating carboplatin area under the concentration-time curve (AUC), using dose predictions based on individual estimates of drug clearance, in a phase I trial of multicycle carboplatin, paclitaxel, and cyclophosphamide chemotherapy with peripheral-blood stem-cell (PBSC) replacement. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Forty-four patients (37 breast, seven ovarian) received 165 courses. Initial target carboplatin AUC was 10 mg/ml x min, with interpatient escalation in increments of 25%. Initial carboplatin dose estimates used creatinine clearance (CrCl) to estimate carboplatin clearance. Subsequent clearance and dose estimates were determined using a model incorporating Bayesian estimation and two measured carboplatin plasma ultrafiltrate concentrations. RESULTS: Median clearance was 80.5 mL/min/m2 (range, 41.6 to 131.8). Carboplatin doses up to 2,440 mg/m2 per course were administered without major extramedullary toxicity. Doses varied 2.6-fold at each exposure level. Using the Bayesian model, AUC was predicted with a mean accuracy of 101.2% (83% using CrCl). Ninety-six of 117 courses were within 25% of the target AUC. This model was less biased (0.15 v -2.35 mg/mL x min) and more precise (2.76 v 3.52) in predicting AUC compared with one using CrCl. Hematologic recovery was not prolonged with increasing exposure. The carboplatin maximum-tolerated systemic exposure (MTSE) was 13.3 mg/mL x min (level five). The dose-limiting toxicity was cardiac toxicity, which occurred at dose levels six and seven. CONCLUSION: Results demonstrate that (1) CrCl is a poor estimator of carboplatin clearance in this population, and (2) the use of a model incorporating limited sampling and Bayesian estimation improves the precision of carboplatin clearance estimation and is suitable for targeting carboplatin exposure in an ambulatory setting.