Prediction of myopia development among Chinese school-aged children using refraction data from electronic medical records: A retrospective, multicentre machine learning study.

BACKGROUND: Electronic medical records provide large-scale real-world clinical data for use in developing clinical decision systems. However, sophisticated methodology and analytical skills are required to handle the large-scale datasets necessary for the optimisation of prediction accuracy. Myopia is a common cause of vision loss. Current approaches to control myopia progression are effective but have significant side effects. Therefore, identifying those at greatest risk who should undergo targeted therapy is of great clinical importance. The objective of this study was to apply big data and machine learning technology to develop an algorithm that can predict the onset of high myopia, at specific future time points, among Chinese school-aged children. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Real-world clinical refraction data were derived from electronic medical record systems in 8 ophthalmic centres from January 1, 2005, to December 30, 2015. The variables of age, spherical equivalent (SE), and annual progression rate were used to develop an algorithm to predict SE and onset of high myopia (SE ≤ -6.0 dioptres) up to 10 years in the future. Random forest machine learning was used for algorithm training and validation. Electronic medical records from the Zhongshan Ophthalmic Centre (a major tertiary ophthalmic centre in China) were used as the training set. Ten-fold cross-validation and out-of-bag (OOB) methods were applied for internal validation. The remaining 7 independent datasets were used for external validation. Two population-based datasets, which had no participant overlap with the ophthalmic-centre-based datasets, were used for multi-resource validation testing. The main outcomes and measures were the area under the curve (AUC) values for predicting the onset of high myopia over 10 years and the presence of high myopia at 18 years of age. In total, 687,063 multiple visit records (≥3 records) of 129,242 individuals in the ophthalmic-centre-based electronic medical record databases and 17,113 follow-up records of 3,215 participants in population-based cohorts were included in the analysis. Our algorithm accurately predicted the presence of high myopia in internal validation (the AUC ranged from 0.903 to 0.986 for 3 years, 0.875 to 0.901 for 5 years, and 0.852 to 0.888 for 8 years), external validation (the AUC ranged from 0.874 to 0.976 for 3 years, 0.847 to 0.921 for 5 years, and 0.802 to 0.886 for 8 years), and multi-resource testing (the AUC ranged from 0.752 to 0.869 for 4 years). With respect to the prediction of high myopia development by 18 years of age, as a surrogate of high myopia in adulthood, the algorithm provided clinically acceptable accuracy over 3 years (the AUC ranged from 0.940 to 0.985), 5 years (the AUC ranged from 0.856 to 0.901), and even 8 years (the AUC ranged from 0.801 to 0.837). Meanwhile, our algorithm achieved clinically acceptable prediction of the actual refraction values at future time points, which is supported by the regressive performance and calibration curves. Although the algorithm achieved balanced and robust performance, concerns about the compromised quality of real-world clinical data and over-fitting issues should be cautiously considered. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this study, for the first time, used large-scale data collected from electronic health records to demonstrate the contribution of big data and machine learning approaches to improved prediction of myopia prognosis in Chinese school-aged children. This work provides evidence for transforming clinical practice, health policy-making, and precise individualised interventions regarding the practical control of school-aged myopia.

Construction and implications of structural equation modeling network for pediatric cataract: a data mining research of rare diseases.

BACKGROUND: The majority of rare diseases are complex diseases caused by a combination of multiple morbigenous factors. However, uncovering the complex etiology and pathogenesis of rare diseases is difficult due to limited clinical resources and conventional statistical methods. This study aims to investigate the interrelationship and the effectiveness of potential factors of pediatric cataract, for the exploration of data mining strategy in the scenarios of rare diseases. METHODS: We established a pilot rare disease specialized care center to systematically record all information and the entire treatment process of pediatric cataract patients. These clinical records contain the medical history, multiple structural indices, and comprehensive functional metrics. A two-layer structural equation model network was applied, and eight potential factors were filtered and included in the final modeling. RESULTS: Four risk factors (area, density, location, and abnormal pregnancy experience) and four beneficial factors (axis length, uncorrected visual acuity, intraocular pressure, and age at diagnosis) were identified. Quantifiable results suggested that abnormal pregnancy history may be the principle risk factor among medical history for pediatric cataracts. Moreover, axis length, density, uncorrected visual acuity and age at diagnosis served as the dominant factors and should be emphasized in regular clinical practice. CONCLUSIONS: This study proposes a generalized evidence-based pattern for rare and complex disease data mining, provides new insights and clinical implications on pediatric cataract, and promotes rare-disease research and prevention to benefit patients.