Metformin use is not associated with colorectal cancer incidence in type-2 diabetes patients: evidence from methods that avoid immortal time bias.

PURPOSE: Immortal time bias (ITB) continues to distort many observational studies on metformin use and cancer risk. Our objective was to employ three statistical methods proven to avoid ITB and compare their results to that of a naïve time-fixed analysis in order to provide further evidence of metformin's association, or none thereof, with colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence. METHODS: A total of 41,533 Korean subjects with newly diagnosed type-2 diabetes in 2005-2015 were selected from a prospectively maintained cohort (median follow-up of 6.3 years). Time-to-CRC incidence was regressed upon metformin use (yes/no, average prescription days/year) using time-dependent Cox, landmark, nested case-control, and time-fixed Cox analyses. Other CRC risk factors were included to adjust for possible confounding. RESULTS: Neither metformin ever-use nor average metformin prescription days/year was associated with incident CRC hazard in time-dependent Cox, landmark, and nested case-control analyses with HR (95% CI) of 0.88 (0.68-1.13), 0.86 (0.65-1.12), and 1.10 (0.86-1.40) for metformin ever-use, and 0.97 (0.90-1.04), 0.95 (0.88-1.04), and 1.02 (0.95-1.10) for average metformin prescription days/year, respectively. In contrast, time-fixed Cox regression showed a falsely exaggerated protective effect of metformin on CRC incidence. CONCLUSION: The association between metformin use and subsequent CRC incidence was statistically nonsignificant after accounting for time-related biases such as ITB. Previous studies that avoided these biases and meta-analyses of RCTs on metformin and cancer incidence were in agreement with our results. A definitive, large-scale RCT is needed to clarify this topic, and future observational studies should be explicit in avoiding ITB and other time-related biases.

Serum Retinal and Retinoic Acid Predict the Development of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Korean Subjects with Impaired Fasting Glucose from the KCPS-II Cohort.

We aimed to investigate whether retinal and retinoic acid (RA), which are newly discovered biomarkers from our previous research, reliably predict type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) development in subjects with impaired fasting glucose (IFG). Among the Korean Cancer Prevention Study (KCPS)-II cohort, subjects were selected and matched by age and sex (IFG-IFG group, n = 100 vs. IFG-DM group, n = 100) for study 1. For real-world validation of two biomarkers (study 2), other participants in the KCPS-II cohort who had IFG at baseline (n = 500) were selected. Targeted LC/MS was used to analyze the baseline serum samples; retinal and RA levels were quantified. In study 1, we revealed that both biomarkers were significantly decreased in the IFG-DM group (retinal, p = 0.017; RA, p < 0.001). The obese subjects in the IFG-DM group showed markedly lower retinal (p = 0.030) and RA (p = 0.003) levels than those in the IFG-IFG group. In study 2, the results for the two metabolites tended to be similar to those of study 1, but no significant difference was observed. Notably, the predictive ability for T2DM was enhanced when the metabolites were added to conventional risk factors for T2DM in both studies (study 1, AUC 0.682 → 0.775; study 2, AUC 0.734 → 0.786). The results suggest that retinal- and RA-related metabolic pathways are altered before the onset of T2DM.