A simple Cox approach to estimating risk ratios without sharing individual-level data in multi-site studies.

Epidemiologic studies frequently use risk ratios to quantify associations between exposures and binary outcomes. When the data are physically stored at multiple data partners, it can be challenging to perform individual-level analysis if data cannot be pooled centrally due to privacy constraints. Existing methods either require multiple file transfers between each data partner and an analysis center (e.g., distributed regression) or only provide approximate estimation of the risk ratio (e.g., meta-analysis). Here we develop a practical method that requires a single transfer of eight summary-level quantities from each data partner. Our approach leverages an existing risk-set method and software originally developed for Cox regression. Sharing only summary-level information, the proposed method provides risk ratio estimates and confidence intervals identical to those that would be provided - if individual-level data were pooled - by the modified Poisson regression. We justify the method theoretically, confirm its performance using simulated data, and implement it in a distributed analysis of COVID-19 data from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration's Sentinel System.

Comparative Efficacy of Advanced Therapies for Achieving Endoscopic Outcomes in Crohn's Disease: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: We conducted a network meta-analysis to compare the efficacy of advanced therapies for achieving endoscopic outcomes in patients with moderate-to-severely active Crohn's disease. METHODS: MEDLINE, Embase, and Cochrane CENTRAL databases were searched from inception to August 2, 2023 to identify phase II and III randomized controlled trials (RCTs) in adults (≥18 years) with moderate-to-severe Crohn's disease treated with tumor necrosis factor (TNF) antagonists, etrolizumab, vedolizumab, anti-interleukin (IL)12/23p40, anti-IL23p19, or Janus kinase-1 (JAK1) inhibitors, compared with placebo/active comparator, for induction and/or maintenance of remission and reported endoscopic outcomes. Primary outcome was endoscopic response after induction therapy, and endoscopic remission after maintenance therapy. We performed a random-effects network meta-analysis using a frequentist approach, and estimated relative risk (RRs), 95% confidence interval (CI) values, and P score for ranking agents. We used GRADE to ascertain certainty of evidence. RESULTS: A total of 20 RCTs (19 placebo-controlled and 1 head-to-head trial; 5592 patients) were included out of which 12 RCTs reported endoscopic outcomes for the induction phase, 5 reported for the maintenance phase, and 3 reported for both induction and maintenance phases. JAK1 inhibitors (RR, 3·49 [95% CI, 1·48-8·26]) and anti-IL23p19 (RR, 2·30 [95% CI, 1·02-5·18]) agents were more efficacious than etrolizumab (moderate certainty of evidence), and JAK1 inhibitors (RR, 2·34 [95% CI, 1·14-4·80]) were more efficacious than anti-IL12/23p40 agents for inducing endoscopic response (moderate certainty of evidence). JAK1 inhibitors and anti-IL23p19 ranked highest for induction of endoscopic response. There was paucity of RCTs of TNF antagonists reporting endoscopic outcomes with induction therapy. On network meta-analysis of 6 RCTs, all agents except vedolizumab (RR, 1.89 [95% CI, 0.61-5.92]) were effective in maintaining endoscopic remission compared with placebo. TNF antagonists, IL12/23p40, and JAK1 inhibitors were ranked highest. CONCLUSIONS: On network meta-analysis, JAK1 inhibitors and anti-IL23p19 agents may be the most effective among non-TNF-targeting advanced therapies for inducing endoscopic response. Future head-to-head trials will further inform positioning of different therapies for the management of Crohn's disease.

Extending the DeLong algorithm for comparing areas under correlated receiver operating characteristic curves with missing data.

A nonparametric method proposed by DeLong et al in 1988 for comparing areas under correlated receiver operating characteristic curves is used widely in practice. However, the DeLong method as implemented in popular software quietly deletes individuals with any missing values, yielding potentially invalid and/or inefficient results. We simplify the DeLong algorithm using ranks and extend it to accommodate missing data by using a mixed model approach for multivariate data. Simulation results demonstrate the validity and efficiency of our procedure for data missing at random. We illustrate our proposed procedure in SAS, Stata, and R using the original DeLong data.

Nanoscale flow cytometry-based quantification of blood-based extracellular vesicle biomarkers distinguishes MCI and Alzheimer's disease.

INTRODUCTION: Accurate testing for Alzheimer's disease (AD) represents a crucial step for therapeutic advancement. Currently, tests are expensive and require invasive sampling or radiation exposure. METHODS: We developed a nanoscale flow cytometry (nFC)-based assay of extracellular vesicles (EVs) to screen biomarkers in plasma from mild cognitive impairment (MCI), AD, or controls. RESULTS: Circulating amyloid beta (Aß), tau, phosphorylated tau (p-tau)181, p-tau231, p-tau217, p-tauS235, ubiquitin, and lysosomal-associated membrane protein 1-positive EVs distinguished AD samples. p-tau181, p-tau217, p-tauS235, and ubiquitin-positive EVs distinguished MCI samples. The most sensitive marker for AD distinction was p-tau231, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) of 0.96 (sensitivity 0.95/specificity 1.0) improving to an AUC of 0.989 when combined with p-tauS235. DISCUSSION: This nFC-based assay accurately distinguishes MCI and AD plasma without EV isolation, offering a rapid approach requiring minute sample volumes. Incorporating nFC-based measurements in larger populations and comparison to "gold standard" biomarkers is an exciting next step for developing AD diagnostic tools. HIGHLIGHTS: Extracellular vesicles represent promising biomarkers of Alzheimer's disease (AD) that can be measured in the peripheral circulation. This study demonstrates the utility of nanoscale flow cytometry for the measurement of circulating extracellular vesicles (EVs) in AD blood samples. Multiple markers including amyloid beta, tau, phosphorylated tau (p-tau)181, p-tau231, p-tau217, and p-tauS235 accurately distinguished AD samples from healthy controls. Future studies should expand blood and cerebrospinal fluid-based EV biomarker development using nanoflow cytometry approaches.

Reliability and Responsiveness of Histologic Indices for the Assessment of Crohn's Disease Activity.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The operating properties of histologic indices for evaluating Crohn's disease (CD) activity are poorly characterized. We assessed the reliability and responsiveness of existing histologic indices/items used in CD and ulcerative colitis (UC), in addition to 3 novel items, and developed exploratory ileal, colonic, and colonic-ileal CD instruments. METHODS: Blinded central readers independently reviewed paired baseline and week 12 image sets from the EXTEND trial. Disease activity was scored using 4 indices (the Global Histologic Activity Score, Geboes Score, Nancy Histological Index, and Robarts Histopathology Index) and 3 items identified by an expert panel (mucin depletion, basal plasmacytosis, and ileal pyloric gland metaplasia). Reliability and responsiveness were quantified using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC), respectively. Exploratory indices were developed using backward stepwise linear regression analysis. Candidate independent variables were items with an inter-rater ICC ≥0.40 and AUC ≥0.56. The dependent variable was histologic disease activity measured by a 100-mm visual analogue scale. RESULTS: Paired image sets were available from 55 patients. Substantial to almost perfect inter-rater reliability (ICC, 0.63-0.87) and some responsiveness (AUC, 0.57-0.94) were observed for all existing indices regardless of whether individual colonic and ileal segments, combined colonic segments, or combined colonic and ileal segments were assessed and the calculation method used. Five items were tested as candidate items, and exploratory colonic, ileal, and colonic-ileal indices were developed. CONCLUSIONS: CD and UC indices were similarly reliable and responsive in measuring histologic CD activity. Exploratory index development did not offer benefit over current histologic instruments.

Standardizing Scoring Conventions for Crohn's Disease Endoscopy: An International RAND/UCLA Appropriateness Study.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic assessment of disease activity is integral for evaluating treatment response in patients with Crohn's disease (CD). We aimed to define appropriate items for evaluating endoscopic activity and conventions for consistent endoscopic scoring rules in CD. METHODS: A 2-round modified RAND/University of California at Los Angeles Appropriateness Method study was conducted. A panel of 15 gastroenterologists used a 9-point Likert scale to rate the appropriateness of statements pertaining to the Simple Endoscopic Score for CD, Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity, and additional items relevant to endoscopy scoring in CD. Each statement was voted as appropriate, uncertain, or inappropriate based on the median panel rating and presence of disagreement. RESULTS: Panelists voted that it is appropriate for all ulcers to contribute to endoscopic scoring in CD, including aphthous ulcers, ulcerations at a surgical anastomosis, and anal canal ulcers (scored in the rectum). Endoscopic healing should reflect an absence of ulcers. Narrowing should be defined as a clear decrease in luminal diameter; stenosis should be defined by an impassable narrowing, and if occurring at the junction of 2 segments, scored in the distal segment. Scarring and inflammatory polyps were considered inappropriate for including in the affected area score. The optimal method for defining ulcer depth remains uncertain. CONCLUSIONS: We outlined scoring conventions for the Simple Endoscopic Score for CD and Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity, noting that both scores have limitations. Therefore, we identified priorities for future research and steps for developing and validating a more representative endoscopic index in CD.

Reliability of histologic assessment for NAFLD and development of an expanded NAFLD activity score.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The NASH Clinical Research Network histologic scoring system, the gold-standard NASH histology assessment for clinical trials, has demonstrated intrarater and interrater variability. An expert panel in a previous systematic Research and Development/University of California Los Angeles (RAND/UCLA) study determined that existing histologic scoring systems do not fully capture NASH disease activity and fibrosis, and standardized definitions of histologic features are needed. We evaluated the reliability of existing and alternate histologic measures and their correlations with a disease activity visual analog scale to propose optimal components for an expanded NAFLD activity score (NAS). APPROACH AND RESULTS: Four liver pathologists who were involved in the prior RAND/UCLA study underwent standardized training and multiple discussions with the goal of improving agreement. They were blinded to clinical information and scored histologic measures twice, ≥2 weeks apart, for 40 liver biopsies representing the full spectrum of NAFLD. Index intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) estimates demonstrated intrarater (0.80-0.85) and interrater (0.60-0.72) reliability. Hepatocyte ballooning items had similar interrater ICCs (0.68-0.79), including those extending scores from 0-2 to 0-4. Steatosis measures (interrater ICCs, 0.72-0.80) correlated poorly with disease activity. Correlations with disease activity were largest for hepatocyte ballooning and Mallory-Denk bodies (MDBs), with both used to develop the expanded NAS (intrarater ICC, 0.90; interrater ICC, 0.80). Fibrosis measures had ICCs of 0.70-0.87. CONCLUSIONS: After extensive preparation among a group of experienced pathologists, we demonstrated improved reliability of multiple existing histologic NAFLD indices and fibrosis staging systems. Hepatocyte ballooning and MDBs most strongly correlated with disease activity and were used for the expanded NAS. Further validation including evaluation of responsiveness is required.

Development and validation of a real-world model to predict 1-year Level 3 (severe) hypoglycaemia risk in adults with diabetes (the iNPHORM study, United States).

AIMS: We aimed to develop and internally validate a real-world prognostic model for Level 3 hypoglycaemia risk compatible with outpatient care in the United States. MATERIALS AND METHODS: iNPHORM is a 12-month, US-based panel survey. Adults (18-90 years old) with type 1 diabetes mellitus or insulin- and/or secretagogue-treated type 2 diabetes mellitus were recruited from a nationwide, probability-based internet panel. Among participants completing ≥ 1 follow-up questionnaire(s), we modelled 1-year Level 3 hypoglycaemia risk using Andersen and Gill's Cox survival and penalized regression with multiple imputation. Candidate variables were selected for their clinical relevance and ease of capture at point-of-care. RESULTS: In total, 986 participants [type 1 diabetes mellitus: 17%; men: 49.6%; mean age: 51 (SD: 14.3) years] were analysed. Across follow-up, 035.1 (95% CI: 32.2-38.1)% reported ≥1 Level 3 event(s), and the rate was 5.0 (95% CI: 4.1-6.0) events per person-year. Our final model showed strong discriminative validity and parsimony (optimism corrected c-statistic: 0.77). Numerous variables were selected: age; sex; body mass index; marital status; level of education; insurance coverage; race; ethnicity; food insecurity; diabetes type; glycated haemoglobin value; glycated haemoglobin variability; number, type and dose of various medications; number of SH events requiring hospital care (past year and over follow-up); type and number of comorbidities and complications; number of diabetes-related health care visits (past year); use of continuous/flash glucose monitoring; and general health status. CONCLUSIONS: iNPHORM is the first US-based primary prognostic study on Level 3 hypoglycaemia. Future model implementation could potentiate risk-tailored strategies that reduce real-world event occurrence and overall diabetes burden.

Severe (level 3) hypoglycaemia occurrence in a real-world cohort of adults with type 1 or 2 diabetes mellitus (iNPHORM, United States).

AIMS: Among adults with insulin- and/or secretagogue-treated diabetes in the United States, very little is known about the real-world descriptive epidemiology of iatrogenic severe (level 3) hypoglycaemia. Addressing this gap, we collected primary, longitudinal data to quantify the absolute frequency of events as well as incidence rates and proportions. MATERIALS AND METHODS: iNPHORM is a US-wide, 12-month ambidirectional panel survey (2020-2021). Adults with type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) or insulin- and/or secretagogue-treated type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were recruited from a probability-based internet panel. Participants completing ≥1 follow-up questionnaire(s) were analysed. RESULTS: Among 978 respondents [T1DM 17%; mean age 51 (SD 14.3) years; male: 49.6%], 63% of level 3 events were treated outside the health care system (e.g. by family/friend/colleague), and <5% required hospitalization. Following the 12-month prospective period, one-third of individuals reported ≥1 event(s) [T1DM 44.2% (95% CI 36.8%-51.8%); T2DM 30.8% (95% CI 28.7%-35.1%), p = .0404, α = 0.0007]; and the incidence rate was 5.01 (95% CI 4.15-6.05) events per person-year (EPPY) [T1DM 3.57 (95% CI 2.49-5.11) EPPY; T2DM 5.29 (95% CI 4.26-6.57) EPPY, p = .1352, α = 0.0007]. Level 3 hypoglycaemia requiring non-transport emergency medical services was more common in T2DM than T1DM (p < .0001, α = 0.0016). In total, >90% of events were experienced by <15% of participants. CONCLUSIONS: iNPHORM is one of the first long-term, prospective US-based investigations on level 3 hypoglycaemia epidemiology. Our results underscore the importance of participant-reported data to ascertain its burden. Events were alarmingly frequent, irrespective of diabetes type, and concentrated in a small subsample.

Existing Bowel Preparation Quality Scales Are Reliable in the Setting of Centralized Endoscopy Reading.

BACKGROUND: Development of bowel preparation products has been based upon colon cleansing rating by a local endoscopist. It is unclear how bowel preparation scales perform when centrally evaluated. AIMS: To evaluate the reliability of bowel preparation quality scales when assessed by central readers. METHODS: Four central readers evaluated 52 videos in triplicate, 2 weeks apart, during the entire endoscopic procedure (insertion/withdrawal of the colonoscope) and exclusively on colonoscope withdrawal using the Boston Bowel Preparation Scale (BBPS), Chicago Bowel Preparation scale, Harefield Cleansing Scale, Ottawa Bowel Preparation Quality Scale (OBPQS), Aronchick score, a visual analogue scale, and additional items proposed in a modified Research and Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness process. Reliability was assessed with intraclass correlation coefficients. RESULTS: Intraclass correlation coefficients (95% confidence interval) for inter-rater reliability of the quality scales ranged from 0.51 to 0.65 (consistent with moderate to substantial inter-rater reliability) during the entire procedure. Corresponding intraclass correlation coefficients for intra-rater reliability ranged from 0.69 to 0.77 (consistent with substantial intra-rater reliability). Reliability was highest in the right colon and lowest in the left colon. No differences were observed in reliability when assessed for the procedure overall (insertion/withdrawal) relative to assessment on withdrawal alone. CONCLUSION: All five bowel preparation quality scales had moderate to substantial inter-rater reliability. Panelists considered the Aronchick score too simplistic for clinical trials and recognized that assessment of residual fluid in the Ottawa Bowel Preparation Quality Scale was not amenable to central assessment.

Parametric and nonparametric methods for confidence intervals and sample size planning for win probability in parallel-group randomized trials with Likert item and Likert scale data.

Data on the Likert scale are ubiquitous in medical research, including randomized trials. Statistical analysis of such data may be conducted using the means of raw scores or the rank information of the scores. In the context of parallel-group randomized trials, we quantify treatment effects by the probability that a subject in the treatment group has a better score than (or a win over) a subject in the control group. Asymptotic parametric and nonparametric confidence intervals for this win probability and associated sample size formulas are derived for studies with only follow-up scores, and those with both baseline and follow-up measurements. We assessed the performance of both the parametric and nonparametric approaches using simulation studies based on real studies with Likert item and Likert scale data. The simulation results demonstrate that even without baseline adjustment, the parametric methods did not perform well, in terms of bias, interval coverage percentage, balance of tail error, and assurance of achieving a pre-specified precision. In contrast, the nonparametric approach performed very well for both the unadjusted and adjusted win probability. We illustrate the methods with two examples: one using Likert item data and the other using Like scale data. We conclude that non-parametric methods are preferable for two-group randomization trials with Likert data. Illustrative SAS code for the nonparametric approach using existing procedures is provided.

Distribution-Free Approach to the Design and Analysis of Randomized Stroke Trials With the Modified Rankin Scale.

BACKGROUND: Many methods have been suggested for analyzing the modified Rankin Scale (mRS). However, there lacks a unified approach to analysis and sample size determination that properly uses the ordinal nature of the data. We propose a simple method for CI estimation and corresponding sample size determination. METHODS: We quantify treatment effect by the win probability (WinP) that a randomly selected patient in the treatment group has an equal or a better mRS score than a patient in the control group. Thus, a win probability of 0.5 means no effect, likened to a draw in competitive sports. We estimate the win probability and its SE based on the ranks of mRS scores, where tied scores are handled by average ranks. Corresponding methods for hypothesis testing, CI estimation, and sample size determination are derived. The methods are evaluated with a simulation study based on real data from 10 randomized stroke trials that used mRS as the outcome measure. RESULTS: Simulation results demonstrated that the methods performed very well in terms of CI coverage, tail errors, and assurance to achieving the prespecified precision. Because the methods are very simple, we implemented them in an Excel spreadsheet, requiring only user inputs on frequencies of mRS scores in 2 comparison groups. CONCLUSIONS: Sound statistical methods are important for the success of randomized stroke trials. The proposed methods and associated spreadsheet should prove useful for stroke researchers in the planning and analysis of randomized trials. Meta-analysis has also been made easy for trials with ordinal scores.

Endoscopic Assessment of Inflammatory Bowel Disease Activity in Clinical Trials.

In patients with Crohn's disease and ulcerative colitis, poor correlation between symptoms and active luminal inflammation has been well established. As a result, the field has moved towards the use of endoscopic assessment to evaluate inflammatory activity. Numerous endoscopic indices have been used for this purpose although none are completely validated. The Simple Endoscopic Score for Crohn's Disease and the Crohn's Disease Endoscopic Index of Severity have been used most frequently; however in addition to incomplete validation, they have important limitations for clinical use, including complexity of scoring and poor reliability of items such as stenosis. The Rutgeerts' score for postoperative Crohn's disease was developed primarily as a prognostic rather than evaluative tool and also requires additional validation. In ulcerative colitis, the Mayo endoscopic subscore has been used as the regulatory standard, although the Ulcerative Colitis Endoscopic Index of Severity may provide a more granular assessment of individual components of disease activity. The use of combined outcomes with patient reported outcomes (PROs) and endoscopic indices has received favor by regulatory bodies but require further validation. This review describes the indications for endoscopic assessment in trials, the indices most frequently utilized for these purposes, and potential future approaches to assessment of disease activity.

Early Combined Immunosuppression Reduces Complications in Long-standing Crohn's Disease: A Post Hoc Analysis of REACT.

Crohn's disease (CD) can lead to bowel damage, stricturing, and obstruction thereby resulting in surgery and hospitalization. The Randomized Evaluation of an Algorithm for Crohn's Treatment (REACT) trial showed that early combined immunosuppression (ECI) with symptom-based treatment escalation for 24 months resulted in a lower risk of surgery, hospitalization, or CD-related complications compared with conventional management (CM).1 Treatment earlier in the disease course may be associated with reduced risk of complications compared with later initiation, although data are sparse.2 We performed a post hoc analysis of REACT to evaluate the impact of baseline disease duration on surgery, hospitalization, or CD-related complications in patients treated with ECI compared with CM.

Responsiveness of Magnetic Resonance Enterography Indices for Evaluation of Luminal Disease Activity in Crohn's Disease.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Magnetic resonance enterography (MRE) is having an increasing role in Crohn's disease; however, fully validated indices are needed. We evaluated the responsiveness of 4 MRE indices in luminal Crohn's disease. METHODS: Paired MRE images (pretreatment and post-treatment at weeks 12 or 14) from 41 patients were scored by 3 blinded radiologists. Disease activity was scored for 4 MRE indices (magnetic resonance index of activity [MaRIA], simplified MaRIA, London index, and London extended index) and a 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS) of overall disease activity. The criterion for change was an improvement by at least one half of an SD in the VAS after treatment. Responsiveness was evaluated using the standardized effect size (SES). Longitudinal validity was evaluated using correlations between changes in MRE index scores and disease activity measures including endoscopy and the VAS. RESULTS: The SES was 1.17 (95% CI, 0.56-1.77) for the simplified MaRIA, 0.98 (95% CI, 0.42-1.55) for the MaRIA, 0.95 (95% CI, 0.38-1.51) for the London extended index, and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.31-1.39) for the London index. The simplified MaRIA was significantly more responsive than the London index (ΔSES, 0.32; 95% CI, 0.05-0.58) but not the MaRIA (ΔSES, 0.18; 95% CI, -0.01 to 0.38) or the London extended index (ΔSES, 0.22; 95% CI, -0.05 to 0.50). Correlations with endoscopy (simplified MaRIA: r = 0.72) were not different from correlations with the VAS (London extended index: r = 0.70). CONCLUSIONS: Evaluated MRE indices showed moderate-to-large responsiveness and are suitable for use in clinical trials. The simplified MaRIA may be preferred because of its responsiveness and nonreliance on gadolinium administration.

Responsiveness of a Histologic Scoring System Compared With Peak Eosinophil Count in Eosinophilic Esophagitis.

INTRODUCTION: The optimal instrument for assessing histologic disease activity in patients with eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) is unclear. We assessed the responsiveness of the EoE Histologic Scoring System (EoE-HSS) when compared with that of the peak eosinophil count (PEC). METHODS: Histopathology slides were obtained from patients with EoE at baseline and after 8 weeks of treatment with swallowed topical budesonide or elimination diet. Two blinded gastrointestinal pathologists scored biopsies on the EoE-HSS, PEC, and 100-mm visual analog scale (VAS) of overall histologic severity. Change was defined as an improvement by ≥0.5 SD in baseline VAS. Responsiveness was quantified using the standardized effect size (SES) and the probability that the index distinguishes a patient with improvement from a patient without improvement, which is the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Longitudinal validity was assessed using Pearson correlations between changes in EoE-HSS and both PEC and VAS. RESULTS: The EoE-HSS grade (SES 2.18 [95% confidence interval, CI: 1.46-2.88]; AUC 0.73 [95% CI: 0.57-0.84]) and stage (SES 2.07 [95% CI: 1.37-2.77]; AUC 0.73 [95% CI: 0.58-0.84]) were highly responsive, similar to PEC (SES 1.44 [95% CI: 0.80-2.07]; AUC 0.73 [95% CI: 0.58-0.84]). The EoE-HSS grade and stage were more highly correlated with changes in VAS (grade 0.92 [95% CI: 0.86-0.95]; stage 0.89 [95% CI: 0.81-0.94]) than with changes in PEC (grade 0.74 [95% CI: 0.58-0.85]; stage 0.66 [95% CI: 0.47-0.80]). DISCUSSION: The EoE-HSS is highly responsive, performs similarly to PEC, and is better correlated with changes in overall histologic activity in patients with EoE.

Reliability and responsiveness of endoscopic disease activity assessment in eosinophilic esophagitis.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Endoscopic outcomes have become important measures of eosinophilic esophagitis (EoE) disease activity, including as an endpoint in randomized controlled trials (RCTs). We evaluated the operating properties of endoscopic measures for use in EoE RCTs. METHODS: Modified Research and Development/University of California Los Angeles appropriateness methods and a panel of 15 international EoE experts identified endoscopic items and definitions with face validity that were used in a 2-round voting process to define simplified (all items graded as absent or present) and expanded versions (additional grades for edema, furrows, and/or exudates) of the EoE Endoscopic Reference Score (EREFS). Inter- and intrarater reliability of these instruments (expressed as intraclass correlation coefficients [ICC]) were evaluated using paired endoscopy video assessments of 2 blinded central readers in patients before and after 8 weeks of proton pump inhibitors, swallowed topical corticosteroids, or dietary elimination. Responsiveness was measured using the standardized effect size (SES). RESULTS: The appropriateness of 41 statements relevant to EoE endoscopic activity (endoscopic items, item definitions and grading, and other considerations relevant for endoscopy) was considered. The original and expanded EREFS demonstrated moderate-to-substantial inter-rater reliability (ICCs of .472-.736 and .469-.763, respectively) and moderate-to-almost perfect intrarater reliability (ICCs of .580-.828 and .581-.828, respectively). Strictures were least reliably assessed (ICC, .072-.385). The original EREFS was highly responsive (SES, 1.126 [95% confidence interval {CI}, .757-1.534]), although both expanded versions of EREFS, scored based on worst affected area, were numerically most responsive to treatment (expanded furrows: SES, 1.229 [95% CI, .858-1.643]; all items expanded: SES, 1.252 [95% CI, .880-1.667]). The EREFS and its modifications were not more reliably scored by segment and also not more responsive when proximal and distal EREFSs were summed. CONCLUSIONS: EREFS and its modifications were reliable and responsive, and the original or expanded versions of the EREFS may be preferred in RCTs. Disease activity scored based on the worst affected area optimizes reliability and responsiveness.

A nonparametric approach to confidence intervals for concordance index and difference between correlated indices.

Concordance refers to the probability that subjects with high values on one variable also have high values on another variable. This index has wide application in practice, as a measure of effect size in group-comparison studies, an index of accuracy in diagnostic studies, and a discrimination index for prediction models. Herein, we provide a unified framework for statistical inference involving concordance indices for standard variables of binary, ordinal, and continuous types. In particular, we develop confidence interval procedures for a single concordance index and differences between two correlated indices. Simulation results show that procedures based on logit-transformation for a single index and Fisher's z-transformation for a difference between indices perform very well in terms of coverage and tail errors even when the sample size is as small as 30, unless the concordance is high and the standard is a binary variable for which at least 50 subjects are needed. We illustrate the procedures for a variety of standard variables with previously published data. Illustrative SAS code is provided.

How Long Should GPS Recording Lengths Be to Capture the Community Mobility of An Older Clinical Population? A Parkinson's Example.

Wearable global position system (GPS) technology can help those working with older populations and people living with movement disorders monitor and maintain their mobility level. Health research using GPS often employs inconsistent recording lengths due to the lack of a standard minimum GPS recording length for a clinical context. Our work aimed to recommend a GPS recording length for an older clinical population. Over 14 days, 70 older adults with Parkinson's disease wore the wireless inertial motion unit with GPS (WIMU-GPS) during waking hours to capture daily "time outside", "trip count", "hotspots count" and "area size travelled". The longest recording length accounting for weekend and weekdays was ≥7 days of ≥800 daily minutes of data (14 participants with 156, 483.9 min recorded). We compared the error rate generated when using data based on recording lengths shorter than this sample. The smallest percentage errors were observed across all outcomes, except "hotspots count", with daily recordings ≥500 min (8.3 h). Eight recording days will capture mobility variability throughout days of the week. This study adds empirical evidence to the sensor literature on the required minimum duration of GPS recording.

Confidence interval estimation for treatment effects in cluster randomization trials based on ranks.

A cluster randomization trial is one in which clusters of individuals are randomly allocated to different intervention arms. This design has become the standard for the evaluation of health care and educational strategies. To assess treatment effect, many cluster randomization trials involve outcomes that are lack meaningful units, making interpretation difficult. This difficulty may be dealt with by estimating the Mann-Whitney probability, which quantifies the probability that a typical response from one treatment arm is larger (or smaller) than a typical response from the other arm. In this work, we propose procedures for estimating this probability in cluster randomization trials. Primary emphasis is given to confidence interval estimation in trials with a small number of large clusters. The essence of the procedures is to obtain placement values based on overall ranks and arm-specific ranks prior to application of the ratio estimator, cluster-size-weighted means and mixed models for adjusting clustering effects. Nine confidence intervals were developed by applying three interval methods each based on the three variance estimators. The proposed methods can be applied to studies with binary, ordinal or continuous outcomes without making parametric assumptions. Simulation results demonstrated that the three variance estimators performed equally well, with the confidence interval procedures based on logit and inverse hyperbolic sine transformations performing better in terms of coverage and average interval width, even when the numbers of clusters are as small as 3 to 5 clusters per arm. The methods are illustrated using data from three published cluster randomization trials with SAS code provided.