Tracking of marine predators to protect Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Southern Ocean ecosystems are under pressure from resource exploitation and climate change1,2. Mitigation requires the identification and protection of Areas of Ecological Significance (AESs), which have so far not been determined at the ocean-basin scale. Here, using assemblage-level tracking of marine predators, we identify AESs for this globally important region and assess current threats and protection levels. Integration of more than 4,000 tracks from 17 bird and mammal species reveals AESs around sub-Antarctic islands in the Atlantic and Indian Oceans and over the Antarctic continental shelf. Fishing pressure is disproportionately concentrated inside AESs, and climate change over the next century is predicted to impose pressure on these areas, particularly around the Antarctic continent. At present, 7.1% of the ocean south of 40°S is under formal protection, including 29% of the total AESs. The establishment and regular revision of networks of protection that encompass AESs are needed to provide long-term mitigation of growing pressures on Southern Ocean ecosystems.

Robustly estimating the demographic contribution of immigration: Simulation, sensitivity analysis and seals.

Identifying important demographic drivers of population dynamics is fundamental for understanding life-history evolution and implementing effective conservation measures. Integrated population models (IPMs) coupled with transient life table response experiments (tLTREs) allow ecologists to quantify the contributions of demographic parameters to observed population change. While IPMs can estimate parameters that are not estimable using any data source alone, for example, immigration, the estimated contribution of such parameters to population change is prone to bias. Currently, it is unclear when robust conclusions can be drawn from them. We sought to understand the drivers of a rebounding southern elephant seal population on Marion Island using the IPM-tLTRE framework, applied to count and mark-recapture data on 9500 female seals over nearly 40 years. Given the uncertainty around IPM-tLTRE estimates of immigration, we also aimed to investigate the utility of simulation and sensitivity analyses as general tools for evaluating the robustness of conclusions obtained in this framework. Using a Bayesian IPM and tLTRE analysis, we quantified the contributions of survival, immigration and population structure to population growth. We assessed the sensitivity of our estimates to choice of multivariate priors on immigration and other vital rates. To do so we make a novel application of Gaussian process priors, in comparison with commonly used shrinkage priors. Using simulation, we assessed our model's ability to estimate the demographic contribution of immigration under different levels of temporal variance in immigration. The tLTRE analysis suggested that adult survival and immigration were the most important drivers of recent population growth. While the contribution of immigration was sensitive to prior choices, the estimate was consistently large. Furthermore, our simulation study validated the importance of immigration by showing that our estimate of its demographic contribution is unlikely to result as a biased overestimate. Our results highlight the connectivity between distant populations of southern elephant seals, illustrating that female dispersal can be important in regulating the abundance of local populations even when natal site fidelity is high. More generally, we demonstrate how robust ecological conclusions may be obtained about immigration from the IPM-tLTRE framework, by combining sensitivity analysis and simulation.

Reproductive phenology is a repeatable, heritable trait linked to the timing of other life-history events in a migratory marine predator.

Population-level shifts in reproductive phenology in response to environmental change are common, but whether individual-level responses are modified by demographic and genetic factors remains less well understood. We used mixed models to quantify how reproductive timing varied across 1772 female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) breeding at Marion Island in the Southern Ocean (1989-2019), and to identify the factors that correlate with phenological shifts within and between individuals. We found strong support for covariation in the timing of breeding arrival dates and the timing of the preceding moult. Breeding arrival dates were more repeatable at the individual level, as compared with the population level, even after accounting for individual traits (wean date as a pup, age and breeding experience) associated with phenological variability. Mother-daughter similarities in breeding phenology were also evident, indicating that additive genetic effects may contribute to between-individual variation in breeding phenology. Over 30 years, elephant seal phenology did not change towards earlier or later dates, and we found no correlation between annual fluctuations in phenology and indices of environmental variation. Our results show how maternal genetic (or non-genetic) effects, individual traits and linkages between cyclical life-history events can drive within- and between-individual variation in reproductive phenology.

Fasting affects amino acid nitrogen isotope values: a new tool for identifying nitrogen balance of free-ranging mammals.

Changes in the nutritional status of free-ranging animals have a strong influence on individual fitness, yet it remains challenging to monitor longitudinally. Nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon (δ13C) isotope values measured chronologically along the length of metabolically inert keratinous tissues can be used as a nutritional biomarker to retrospectively reconstruct the foraging ecology and eco-physiology of consumers. We quantitatively describe the physiological effects of fasting on amino acid metabolism using sequentially measured bulk tissue and amino acid δ15N values along the length of whiskers sampled from free-ranging juvenile, subadults, adult female, and male southern elephant seals (SES; Mirounga leonina) on Marion Island in the Southern Ocean. For both juveniles and adult females, whisker segments representing fasting had significantly higher bulk tissue δ15N values of 0.6 ± 0.5‰ and 1.3-1.8‰, respectively, in comparison to segments unaffected by fasting. We also found a large increase (2-6‰) in δ15N values for most glucogenic amino acids and a simultaneous depletion (2-3‰) of alanine in segments reflecting fasting, which enabled us to accurately predict (74%) the nutritional status of our model species. We hypothesize that the glucose-alanine cycle is the mechanism driving the observed depletion of alanine δ15N values during fasting. We demonstrated that keratinaceous tissues can be used as a longitudinal nutritional biomarker to detect changes in the nitrogen balance of an individual. Moreover, it is evident that physiological factors have an important influence on tissue δ15N values and can lead to erroneous bulk tissue or amino acid isotope-based reconstructions of foraging habits.

Trade-offs between age-related breeding improvement and survival senescence in highly polygynous elephant seals: Dominant males always do better.

Life history trade-off theory predicts that current reproduction can negatively affect survival and future reproduction. Few studies have assessed breeding costs for males of polygynous species compared to females, despite substantial variation in breeding success among individual males (e.g. subordinate cf. dominant breeders). Specifically, differentiating between the cost of attending breeding seasons, and the additional cost of successfully securing and mating females is lacking. We investigated whether trade-offs are present in the highly polygynous male southern elephant seal (Mirounga leonina) using 34-years of individual-level data. We compare age-specific survival, recruitment and future breeding success probabilities of pre-breeders (males yet to recruit) and breeders (subordinate and dominant social ranks) using multievent models. Pre-breeders and breeders of overlapping ages had similar survival probabilities, suggesting that there was no attendance cost for early recruits. In addition, the probability of recruiting as a dominant breeder never exceeded recruitment probability as a subordinate breeder of the same age. Therefore, older pre-breeders that delayed attendance costs generally did not improve their breeding success (probability of being dominant) at recruitment more than younger recruits. Rather, recruitment age may be a function of individual quality, with lower quality individuals requiring more time to socially mature. When comparing subordinate and dominant breeders, we found clear evidence for survival senescence, with subordinate breeders having a higher baseline mortality. In contrast, age-specific future breeding success (probability of being dominant at t + 1) increased with age, with dominant breeders maintaining higher subsequent breeding success than subordinate breeders. The opposite trends in survival and future breeding success for both subordinate and dominant breeders may indicate a lifetime, population-level trade-off. However, we found no evidence to suggest that being a dominant breeder consecutively (and having a higher accumulated breeding cost) accelerated the rate of senescence when compared to individuals that were previously subordinate. Thus, males experienced actuarial senescence regardless of social rank, with dominant (and possibly high quality) breeders showing a reduced trade-off between survival and future breeding success. We make several novel contributions to understanding polygynous male life histories and southern elephant seal demography.

Preferred, small-scale foraging areas of two Southern Ocean fur seal species are not determined by habitat characteristics.

BACKGROUND: To understand and predict the distribution of foragers, it is crucial to identify the factors that affect individual movement decisions at different scales. Individuals are expected to adjust their foraging movements to the hierarchical spatial distribution of resources. At a small local scale, spatial segregation in foraging habitat happens among individuals of closely situated colonies. If foraging segregation is due to differences in distribution of resources, we would expect segregated foraging areas to have divergent habitat characteristics. RESULTS: We investigated how environmental characteristics of preferred foraging areas differ between two closely situated Subantarctic fur seal (Arctocephalus tropicalis) colonies and a single Antarctic fur seal (A. gazella) colony that forage in different pelagic areas even though they are located well within each other's foraging range. We further investigated the influence of the seasonal cycle on those environmental factors. This study used tracking data from 121 adult female Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seals, collected during summer and winter (2009-2015), from three different colonies. Boosted Regression Tree species distribution models were used to determine key environmental variables associated with areas of fur seal restricted search behaviour. There were no differences in the relative influence of key environmental variables between colonies and seasons. The variables with the most influence for each colony and season were latitude, longitude and magnitude of sea-currents. The influence of latitude and longitude is a by-product of the species' distinct foraging areas, despite the close proximity (< 25 km) of the colonies. The predicted potential foraging areas for each colony changed from summer to winter, reflecting the seasonal cycle of the Southern Ocean. The model predicted that the potential foraging areas of females from the three colonies should overlap, and the fact they do not in reality indicates that factors other than environmental are influencing the location of each colony's foraging area. CONCLUSIONS: The results indicated that small scale spatial segregation of foraging habitats is not driven by bottom-up processes. It is therefore important to also consider other potential drivers, e.g. competition, information transfer, and memory, to understand animal foraging decisions and movements.

Killer whale nuclear genome and mtDNA reveal widespread population bottleneck during the last glacial maximum.

Ecosystem function and resilience is determined by the interactions and independent contributions of individual species. Apex predators play a disproportionately determinant role through their influence and dependence on the dynamics of prey species. Their demographic fluctuations are thus likely to reflect changes in their respective ecological communities and habitat. Here, we investigate the historical population dynamics of the killer whale based on draft nuclear genome data for the Northern Hemisphere and mtDNA data worldwide. We infer a relatively stable population size throughout most of the Pleistocene, followed by an order of magnitude decline and bottleneck during the Weichselian glacial period. Global mtDNA data indicate that while most populations declined, at least one population retained diversity in a stable, productive ecosystem off southern Africa. We conclude that environmental changes during the last glacial period promoted the decline of a top ocean predator, that these events contributed to the pattern of diversity among extant populations, and that the relatively high diversity of a population currently in productive, stable habitat off South Africa suggests a role for ocean productivity in the widespread decline.

Phylogenomics of the killer whale indicates ecotype divergence in sympatry.

For many highly mobile species, the marine environment presents few obvious barriers to gene flow. Even so, there is considerable diversity within and among species, referred to by some as the 'marine speciation paradox'. The recent and diverse radiation of delphinid cetaceans (dolphins) represents a good example of this. Delphinids are capable of extensive dispersion and yet many show fine-scale genetic differentiation among populations. Proposed mechanisms include the division and isolation of populations based on habitat dependence and resource specializations, and habitat release or changing dispersal corridors during glacial cycles. Here we use a phylogenomic approach to investigate the origin of differentiated sympatric populations of killer whales (Orcinus orca). Killer whales show strong specialization on prey choice in populations of stable matrifocal social groups (ecotypes), associated with genetic and phenotypic differentiation. Our data suggest evolution in sympatry among populations of resource specialists.

Population genomics of the killer whale indicates ecotype evolution in sympatry involving both selection and drift.

The evolution of diversity in the marine ecosystem is poorly understood, given the relatively high potential for connectivity, especially for highly mobile species such as whales and dolphins. The killer whale (Orcinus orca) has a worldwide distribution, and individual social groups travel over a wide geographic range. Even so, regional populations have been shown to be genetically differentiated, including among different foraging specialists (ecotypes) in sympatry. Given the strong matrifocal social structure of this species together with strong resource specializations, understanding the process of differentiation will require an understanding of the relative importance of both genetic drift and local adaptation. Here we provide a high-resolution analysis based on nuclear single-nucleotide polymorphic markers and inference about differentiation at both neutral loci and those potentially under selection. We find that all population comparisons, within or among foraging ecotypes, show significant differentiation, including populations in parapatry and sympatry. Loci putatively under selection show a different pattern of structure compared to neutral loci and are associated with gene ontology terms reflecting physiologically relevant functions (e.g. related to digestion). The pattern of differentiation for one ecotype in the North Pacific suggests local adaptation and shows some fixed differences among sympatric ecotypes. We suggest that differential habitat use and resource specializations have promoted sufficient isolation to allow differential evolution at neutral and functional loci, but that the process is recent and dependent on both selection and drift.

Killer whale acoustic patterns respond to prey abundance and environmental variability around the Prince Edward Islands, Southern Ocean.

Killer whales are apex predators with temporally and spatially varying distributions throughout the world's oceans. Their ecology and behaviour are poorly understood in most regions due to limited research, often because of logistical challenges. Here, we used a passive acoustic monitoring device to investigate the seasonal acoustic occurrence and diel vocalizing behaviour of killer whales around the remote sub-Antarctic Prince Edward Islands (PEIs), Southern Ocean. Killer whales showed diel vocalizing patterns that varied seasonally in relation to their prey abundance and social activities. Killer whale calls were intermittently detected year-round with a high number of hours containing calls in October to December, and a secondary peak in February to May, corresponding to seal prey abundance. Random forest modelling identified wind speed as the primary predictor of the occurrence of killer whale calls (with a negative correlation) while sea surface height, chlorophyll-a and sea surface temperature were moderately important. We provide the first acoustic evidence that killer whale occurrence around the PEIs might coincide with variability in environmental conditions and prey abundance. Our results provide the first indication of diel vocalizing pattern of killer whales in the Southern Ocean. This knowledge is important for understanding killer whale ecology and adaptation to the changing oceans.

Diffusion-limited current in organic metal-insulator-metal diodes.

An analytical expression for the diffusion current in organic metal-insulator-metal diodes is derived. The derivation is based on the classical diffusion theory of Schottky, with adaptations to account for the absence of doping, a built-in voltage due to asymmetric contacts, and band bending at the Ohmic contact. The commonly observed deviation of the ideality factor from unity (~1.2) is characteristic of diffusion-limited currents in undoped organic semiconductors. Summing with the classical space-charge limited current provides a full analytic description of the current as a function of voltage, temperature and layer thickness.

Are hippos Africa's most influential megaherbivore? A review of ecosystem engineering by the semi-aquatic common hippopotamus.

Megaherbivores perform vital ecosystem engineering roles, and have their last remaining stronghold in Africa. Of Africa's remaining megaherbivores, the common hippopotamus (Hippopotamus amphibius) has received the least scientific and conservation attention, despite how influential their ecosystem engineering activities appear to be. Given the potentially crucial ecosystem engineering influence of hippos, as well as mounting conservation concerns threatening their long-term persistence, a review of the evidence for hippos being ecosystem engineers, and the effects of their engineering, is both timely and necessary. In this review, we assess, (i) aspects of hippo biology that underlie their unique ecosystem engineering potential; (ii) evaluate hippo ecological impacts in terrestrial and aquatic environments; (iii) compare the ecosystem engineering influence of hippos to other extant African megaherbivores; (iv) evaluate factors most critical to hippo conservation and ecosystem engineering; and (v) highlight future research directions and challenges that may yield new insights into the ecological role of hippos, and of megaherbivores more broadly. We find that a variety of key life-history traits determine the hippo's unique influence, including their semi-aquatic lifestyle, large body size, specialised gut anatomy, muzzle structure, small and partially webbed feet, and highly gregarious nature. On land, hippos create grazing lawns that contain distinct plant communities and alter fire spatial extent, which shapes woody plant demographics and might assist in maintaining fire-sensitive riverine vegetation. In water, hippos deposit nutrient-rich dung, stimulating aquatic food chains and altering water chemistry and quality, impacting a host of different organisms. Hippo trampling and wallowing alters geomorphological processes, widening riverbanks, creating new river channels, and forming gullies along well-utilised hippo paths. Taken together, we propose that these myriad impacts combine to make hippos Africa's most influential megaherbivore, specifically because of the high diversity and intensity of their ecological impacts compared with other megaherbivores, and because of their unique capacity to transfer nutrients across ecosystem boundaries, enriching both terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, water pollution and extraction for agriculture and industry, erratic rainfall patterns and human-hippo conflict, threaten hippo ecosystem engineering and persistence. Therefore, we encourage greater consideration of the unique role of hippos as ecosystem engineers when considering the functional importance of megafauna in African ecosystems, and increased attention to declining hippo habitat and populations, which if unchecked could change the way in which many African ecosystems function.

The effect of prey abundance and fisheries on the survival, reproduction, and social structure of killer whales (Orcinus orca) at subantarctic Marion Island.

Most marine apex predators are keystone species that fundamentally influence their ecosystems through cascading top-down processes. Reductions in worldwide predator abundances, attributed to environmental- and anthropogenic-induced changes to prey availability and negative interactions with fisheries, can have far-reaching ecosystem impacts. We tested whether the survival of killer whales (Orcinus orca) observed at Marion Island in the Southern Indian Ocean correlated with social structure and prey variables (direct measures of prey abundance, Patagonian toothfish fishery effort, and environmental proxies) using multistate models of capture-recapture data spanning 12 years (2006-2018). We also tested the effect of these same variables on killer whale social structure and reproduction measured over the same period. Indices of social structure had the strongest correlation with survival, with higher sociality associated with increased survival probability. Survival was also positively correlated with Patagonian toothfish fishing effort during the previous year, suggesting that fishery-linked resource availability is an important determinant of survival. No correlation between survival and environmental proxies of prey abundance was found. At-island prey availability influenced the social structure of Marion Island killer whales, but none of the variables explained variability in reproduction. Future increases in legal fishing activity may benefit this population of killer whales through the artificial provisioning of resources they provide.

Positive early-late life-history trait correlations in elephant seals.

Correlations between early- and late-life performance are a major prediction of life-history theory. Negative early-late correlations can emerge because biological processes are optimized for early but not late life (e.g., rapid development may accelerate the onset of senescence; "developmental theory of aging") or because allocation to early-life performance comes at a cost in terms of late-life performance (as in the disposable soma theory). But variation in genetic and environmental challenges that each individual has to cope with during early life may also lead to positive early-late life-history trait correlations (the "fixed heterogeneity" or "individual quality" hypothesis). We analyzed individual life-history trajectories of 7,420 known-age female southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) monitored over 36 yr to determine how actuarial senescence (a proxy for late-life performance) correlate with age at first reproduction (a proxy for early-life performance). As some breeding events may not be detected in this field study, we used a custom "multievent" hierarchical model to estimate the age at first reproduction and correlate it to other life-history traits. The probability of first reproduction was 0.34 at age 3, with most females breeding for the first time at age 4, and comparatively few at older ages. Females with an early age of first reproduction outperformed delayed breeders in all aspects we considered (survival, rate of senescence, net reproductive output) but one: early breeders appeared to have an onset of actuarial senescence 1 yr earlier compared to late breeders. Genetics and environmental conditions during early life likely explain the positive correlation between early- and late-life performance. Our results provide the first evidence of actuarial senescence in female southern elephant seals.

Determinants of moult haulout phenology and duration in southern elephant seals.

Phenological shifts are among the most obvious biological responses to environmental change, yet documented responses for Southern Ocean marine mammals are extremely rare. Marine mammals can respond to environmental changes through phenological flexibility of their life-history events such as breeding and moulting. Southern elephant seals (Mirounga leonina) undergo an obligatory annual moult which involves the rapid shedding of epidermal skin and hair while seals fast ashore. We quantified the timing (phenology) and duration (the time from arrival ashore to departure) of the moult haulout of 4612 female elephant seals at Marion Island over 32 years. Using linear mixed-effects models, we investigated age, breeding state and environmental drivers of moult timing and haulout duration. We found no clear evidence for a temporal shift in moult phenology or its duration. Annual variation in moult arrival date and haulout duration was small relative to age and breeding effects, which explained more than 90% of the variance in moult arrival date and 25% in moult haulout duration. All environmental covariates we tested explained minimal variation in the data. Female elephant seals moulted progressively later as juveniles, but adults age 4 and older had similar moult start dates that depended on the breeding state of the female. In contrast, moult haulout duration was not constant with age among adults, but instead became shorter with increasing age. Moulting is energetically expensive and differences in the moult haulout duration are possibly due to individual variation in body mass and associated metabolizable energy reserves, although other drivers (e.g. hormones) may also be present. Individual-based data on moult arrival dates and haulout duration can be used as auxiliary data in demographic modelling and may be useful proxies of other important biological parameters such as body condition and breeding history.

Can the carbon and nitrogen isotope values of offspring be used as a proxy for their mother's diet? Using foetal physiology to interpret bulk tissue and amino acid δ15N values.

The measurement of bulk tissue nitrogen (δ15N) and carbon isotope values (δ13C) chronologically along biologically inert tissues sampled from offspring can provide a longitudinal record of their mothers' foraging habits. This study tested the important assumption that mother-offspring stable isotope values are positively and linearly correlated. In addition, any change in the mother-offspring bulk tissues and individual amino acids that occurred during gestation was investigated. Whiskers sampled from southern elephant seal pups (Mirounga leonina) and temporally overlapping whiskers from their mothers were analyzed. This included n = 1895 chronologically subsampled whisker segments for bulk tissue δ15N and δ13C in total and n = 20 whisker segments for amino acid δ15N values, sampled from recently weaned pups (n = 17), juvenile southern elephant seals (SES) < 2 years old (n = 23) and adult female SES (n = 17), which included nine mother-offspring pairs. In contrast to previous studies, the mother-offspring pairs were not in isotopic equilibrium or linearly correlated during gestation: the Δ15N and Δ13C mother-offspring offsets increased by 0.8 and 1.2‰, respectively, during gestation. The foetal bulk δ15N values were 1.7 ± 0.5‰ (0.9-2.7‰) higher than mothers' δ15N values before birth, while the foetal δ13C increased by ~1.7‰ during gestation and were 1.0 ± 0.5‰ (0.0-1.9‰) higher than their mothers' δ13C at the end of pregnancy. The mother-offspring serine and glycine Δ15N differed by ~4.3‰, while the foetal alanine δ15N values were 1.4‰ lower than that of their mothers during the third trimester of pregnancy. The observed mother-offspring δ15N differences are likely explained by shuttling of glutamate-glutamine and glycine-serine amongst skeletal muscle, liver, placenta and foetal tissue. Foetal development relies primarily on remobilized endogenous maternal proteinaceous sources. Researchers should consider foetal physiology when using offspring bulk tissue isotope values as biomarkers for the mother's isotopic composition as part of monitoring programmes.