The association between GRACE score at admission for myocardial infarction and the incidence of sudden cardiac arrests in long-term follow-up - the MADDEC study.

Background. Sudden cardiac arrest (SCA), often also leading to sudden cardiac death (SCD), is a common complication in coronary artery disease. Despite the effort there is a lack of applicable prediction tools to identify those at high risk. We tested the association between the validated GRACE score and the incidence of SCA after myocardial infarction. Material and methods. A retrospective analysis of 1,985 patients treated for myocardial infarction (MI) between January 1st 2015 and December 31st 2018 and followed until the 31st of December of 2021. The main exposure variable was patients' GRACE score at the point of admission and main outcome variable was incident SCA after hospitalization. Their association was analyzed by subdistribution hazard (SDH) model analysis. The secondary endpoints included SCA in patients with no indication to implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) device and incident SCD. Results. A total of 1985 patients were treated for MI. Mean GRACE score at baseline was 118.7 (SD 32.0). During a median follow-up time of 5.3 years (IQR 3.8-6.1 years) 78 SCA events and 52 SCDs occurred. In unadjusted analyses one SD increase in GRACE score associated with over 50% higher risk of SCA (SDH 1.55, 95% CI 1.29-1.85, p < 0.0001) and over 40% higher risk for SCD (1.42, 1.12-1.79, p = 0.0033). The associations between SCA and GRACE remained statistically significant even with patients without indication for ICD device (1.57, 1.30-1.90, p < 0.0001) as well as when adjusting with patients LVEF and omitting the age from the GRACE score to better represent the severity of the cardiac event. The association of GRACE and SCD turned statistically insignificant when adjusting with LVEF. Conclusions. GRACE score measured at admission for MI associates with long-term risk for SCA.

What is already known about this subject?Nearly 50% of cardiac mortality is caused by sudden cardiac death, often due to sudden cardiac arrest.Despite the effort, there is a lack of applicable prediction tools to identify those at high risk.What does this study add?This study shows that GRACE score measured at the point of admission for myocardial infarction can be used to evaluate patients' risk for sudden cardiac arrest in a long-term follow-up.How might this impact on clinical practice?Based on our findings, the GRACE score at the point of admission could significantly affect the patients' need for an ICD device after hospitalization for MI and should be considered as a contributing factor when evaluating the patients' follow-up care.

Predictive Value of the Modified GRACE Scoring System for All-Cause Mortality in Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction.

Background: To establish a modified Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) scoring system with an improved predictive performance compared with the traditional GRACE scoring system. Methods: We identified 5512 patients who were hospitalized with a definite diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) from January 1, 2015, to December 31, 2020, at the Heart Center of the First Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University through the hospital's electronic medical record system. A total of 4561 patients were enrolled after the inclusion and exclusion criteria were applied. The mean follow-up was 51.8 ± 23.4 months. The patients were divided into dead and alive groups by endpoint events. The differences between the two groups were compared using the two-sample t test and chi-square test. Adjusted traditional risk factors as well as LogBNP (B-type natriuretic peptide precursor, BNP) and the modified GRACE scoring system were included in a multifactorial COX regression model. The predictive performance of the traditional and modified GRACE scoring systems was compared by (Receiver Operating Characteristic) ROC curves. Results: Significant differences in age, heart rate, creatinine, uric acid, LogBNP, traditional GRACE score, and modified GRACE score were found between the dead and alive groups by the two-sample t test. Comparison of the two groups by the chi-square test revealed that the dead group had a higher incidence of males; higher cardiac function class; a previous history of hypertension, diabetes, coronary artery disease (CAD), or cerebrovascular disease; a history of smoking; the need for intra-aortic balloon pump (IABP) support; and more patients taking aspirin, clopidogrel, ticagrelor, and ß -blockers. The results were analyzed by a multifactorial COX regression model, and after adjusting for confounders, age, cardiac function class, history of CAD, use of aspirin and ß -blockers, and the modified GRACE scoring system were found to be associated with all-cause mortality (ACM) in patients with AMI. The ROC curve was used to compare the predictive performance of the conventional GRACE scoring system with that of the modified GRACE scoring system, and it was found that the modified GRACE scoring system (Area Under Curve (AUC) = 0.809, p < 0.001, 95% (Confidence Interval) CI (0.789-0.829)) was significantly better than the traditional GRACE scoring system (AUC = 0.786, p < 0.001, 95% CI (0.764-0.808)), the comparison between the two scores was statistically significant (p < 0.001). The change in the C statistic after 10-fold crossover internal validation of the modified GRACE score was not significant, and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) between the old and new models was calculated with IDI = 0.019 > 0, suggesting that the modified GRACE score has a positive improvement on the traditional GRACE score. Conclusions: The modified GRACE scoring system, established by combining B-type natriuretic peptide precursor (BNP) and the traditional GRACE scoring system, was independently associated with ACM in patients with AMI, with a larger AUC and higher predictive value than the traditional GRACE scoring system. Clinical Trial Registration: NCT02737956.

Factors Associated with 30-day Major Adverse Cardiovascular Event in Acute Coronary Syndrome Patients with Non-Dialysis Chronic Kidney Disease: A Retrospective Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) accounts for the majority of ischemic heart disease-related deaths. It is known that ACS patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD) tend to have worse clinical outcomes, including major adverse coronary events (MACE) compared to patients without CKD.  Some studies suggested that several determinant factors may be involved in this condition. Until now, research on determinant factors of MACE in ACS patients with CKD in Indonesia is still limited. Thus, we aimed to investigate the relationship of various factors to MACE in ACS patients with non-dialysis CKD who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), in the form of neutrophile leukocyte ratio (NLR) as a factor describing chronic inflammation, left ventricular hypertrophy (LVH) as a factor describing cardiac remodeling, Gensini score may represent coronary severity, whereas GRACE was used to evaluate the severity and clinical risk of ACS patients. METHODS: This study is a retrospective cohort study using secondary data from the medical records of 117 ACS patients who underwent percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) at Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital Jakarta from January 2018 to June 2018 . Patients were classified based on the stage of CKD and assessed for 30-day MACE. Data were recorded on GRACE score, Gensini score, LVH, and neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR). Analysis of the relationship between these factors was carried out using the chi-square test. RESULTS: Of the 117 patients, 62.3% were STEMI. At the end of hospital treatment, 67.5% were in the normal-stage 2 CKD group, 17.1% in the CKD stage 3a-3b group, and 15.4% in the CKD stage 4-5 group. MACE occurred in 47 (40.2%) patients with 17 (14.5%) dying. There was a significant relationship between GRACE scores and MACE (54.8% MACE at high GRACE scores vs. 32% MACE at low-moderate GRACE scores, p = 0.016, OR: 2,57 CI 95%, 1,18-5,59), while no significant relationship was found for the Gensini score, LVH, and NLR scores even though there was an increase in the proportion of MACE. CONCLUSION: The incidence of MACE is higher than in the previous studies conducted in the same place, i.e. Cipto Mangunkusumo General Hospital, no significant relationship is found in NLR, LVH, and Gensini score with the 30-day MACE of ACS patients with non-dialysis CKD, meanwhile the GRACE score correlates with the 30-day MACE of ACS in non-dialysis CKD patients as is the known theory regarding this score.

Adjustment of the GRACE score by the triglyceride glucose index improves the prediction of clinical outcomes in patients with acute coronary syndrome undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention.

BACKGROUND: The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score derived from clinical parameters at the time of hospital discharge is a powerful predictor of long-term mortality and reinfarction after acute coronary syndrome (ACS). The triglyceride glucose (TyG) index, which is a simple and reliable surrogate marker of insulin resistance, has been demonstrated to be an independent predictor of long-term adverse major adverse cardiac events, irrespective of diabetes mellitus. We investigate whether the addition of the TyG index improves the predictive ability of the GRACE score after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) in ACS patients regardless of diabetes mellitus. METHOD: A retrospective cohort of 986 ACS patients undergoing PCI was enrolled in the present analyses. The GRACE score for discharge to 6 months and the TyG index were calculated. The primary endpoint was the composite of MACEs, including all-cause death and nonfatal myocardial infarction. Patients were stratified according to the primary endpoint and the tertiles of the TyG index. Cumulative curves were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate Cox regression was adopted to identify predictors of MACEs. The predictive value of the GRACE score alone and combined with the TyG index or fasting blood glucose (FBG) was estimated by the area under the receiver­operating characteristic curve, likelihood ratio test, Akaike's information criteria, continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), and integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Internal validation was assessed using the means of bootstrap method with 1000 bootstrapped samples. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 30.72 months ((interquartile range, 26.13 to 35.07 months), 90 patients developed MACEs, more frequently in the patients with a higher TyG index. Multivariate Cox hazards regression analysis found that the TyG index, but not FBG was an independent predictor of MACEs (hazard ratio 1.6542; 95% CI 1.1555-2.3681; P = 0.006) in all types of ACS regardless of diabetes mellitus when included in the same model as GRACE score. Furthermore, Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed that the incidence of the primary endpoint rose with increasing TyG index tertiles (log-rank, P < 0.01). Adjustment the GRACE score by the TyG index improved the predictive ability for MACEs (increase in C-statistic value from 0.735 to 0.744; NRI, 0.282, 95% CI 0.028-0.426, P = 0.02; IDI, 0.019, 95% CI 0.004-0.046, P = 0.01). Likelihood ratio test showed that the TyG index significantly improved the prognostic ability of the GRACE score (χ2 = 12.37, 1 df; P < 0.001). The results remained consistent when the models were confirmed by internal bootstrap validation method. CONCLUSION: The TyG index, but not FBG is an independent predictor of long-term MACEs after PCI in all types of ACS patients regardless of diabetes mellitus after adjusting for the GRACE score, and improves the ability of the GRACE score to stratify risk and predict prognosis of ACS patients undergoing PCI.

The prognostic utility of GRACE risk score in predictive adverse cardiovascular outcomes in patients with NSTEMI and multivessel disease.

BACKGROUND: GRACE risk score models are capable of predicting all-cause mortality of non-ST elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients. However, its utility for evaluating major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in NSTEMI patients with multivessel disease (MVD) remains unclear. METHODS AND RESULTS: This study was designed as a retrospective cohort study that recruited patients with NSTEMI and multivessel disease between September 2013 and December 2018 in Daping Hospital, Chongqing, China. The primary outcome was a composite outcome that included all-cause mortality, recurrent angina, non-fatal myocardial infarction, coronary re-vascularization, and non-fatal strokes. Of the 827 patients with NSTEMI, 32 did not complete follow-up and 430 were excluded because of single-vessel disease. The remaining 365 NSTEMI patients with MVD had a median follow-up of 3.0 (IQR 2.6-3.3) years, 78 patients experienced outcomes. The GRACE risk score predicted the MACE (hazard ratio 1.014, 95% CI 1.006-1.021, P < 0.001). The GRACE risk score performed well in predicting all-cause mortality (c-statistic 0.72, 95% CI 0.59-0.85, P = 0.001) in MVD but was less powerful in predicting MACE (c-statistic 0.69, 95% CI 0.62-0.75, P < 0.001). When combining the GRACE risk score with the SYNTAX score, and blood urea nitrogen for predicting all-cause mortality and MACE events, the c-statistic value increased to 0.82 and 0.81 (P < 0.001). CONCLUSION: In NSTEMI patients with MVD, the GRACE score showed an acceptable predictive value for all-cause mortality, but it was less powerful in predicting MACE. Blood urea nitrogen may be valuable in assessing long-term cardiovascular events in patients with MVD.

THE LEVEL OF GROWTH STIMULATING FACTOR EXPRESSED BY GENE 2 AND TROPONIN I IN THE BLOOD PLASMA OF NSTEMI PATIENTS DEPENDING ON DIFFERENT CLINICAL CHARACTERISTICS.

OBJECTIVE: The aim of the study is to evaluate the relationship between ST2 and Troponin I with various clinical and instrumental parameters. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Materials and methods: We examined 200 patients with NSTEMI aged 38 to 80 years, who were urgently hospitalized in the Vinnytsya Regional Clinical Center of Cardiovascular Pathology. All patients underwent laboratory testing of ST2 and Troponin I levels in plasma by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay on the first day of hospitalization before coronary angiography. RESULTS: Results: Elevations in ST2 levels were significantly higher in patients with acute heart failure (Killip III) and the presence of acute arrhythmias, diabetes mellitus, and smoking. The increase in Troponin I was associated primarily with the nature of changes in the ECG, stratification on the GRACE score and the presence of concomitant arterial hypertension. CONCLUSION: Conclusions: Determination of ST2 and Troponin I before coronary angiography makes it possible to predict the course of NSTEMI and make appropriate therapeutic corrections to prevent complications.

Correlation of serum N-Acetylneuraminic acid with the risk and prognosis of acute coronary syndrome: a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUND: N-acetylneuraminic acid (Neu5Ac) is a functional metabolite involved in coronary artery disease (CAD). We aimed to evaluate the relationship between serum Neu5Ac and the risk and prognosis of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) in a real-world prospective study. METHODS: Patients with suspected ACS who underwent coronary angiography were included. Serum Neu5Ac was measured at admission. Coronary lesion severity was evaluated by Gensini Score. GRACE risk stratification was performed at admission. Major adverse cardiac events (MACEs) were recorded during follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 766 patients, including 537 with unstable angina (UAP), 100 with myocardial infarction (MI), and 129 without CAD were included. The circulating Neu5Ac level was significantly higher in patients with MI (median [1QR]: 297[220, 374] ng/ml) than in those with UAP (227 [114, 312] ng/ml) or without CAD (207 [114, 276] ng/ml; both p < 0.001). Serum level of Neu5Ac was positively correlated with age, hypertension, serum uric acid, creatinine, MB isoform of creatine kinase (CK-MB), and Gensini score (all p < 0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis showed that a higher serum Neu5Ac was potentially associated with MI and high-risk GRACE stratification in ACS patients. Logistic analysis identified only elevated serum Neu5Ac as an independent predictor of MACEs in these patients (odds ratio [OR]: 1.003, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.002-1.005, p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Serum Neu5Ac is associated with myocardial injury, GRACE risk category, and prognosis in ACS patients.

Predictive Power of In-Hospital and Long-Term Mortality of the GRACE, TIMI, Revised CADILLAC and PAMI Score in NSTEMI Patients with Diabetes - Data from TSOC ACS-DM Registry.

BACKGROUND: Risk score is widely used in non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) patients to predict the in-hospital outcome for immediate coronary angiography decision and care of unit selection. OBJECTIVES: This study compared the performances of the thrombolysis in myocardial infarction (TIMI), Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE), Primary Angioplasty in Myocardial Infarction (PAMI), and Revised Controlled Abciximab and Device Investigation to Lower Late Angioplasty Complications (Revised CADILLAC) risk scores in predicting in-hospital and long-term outcomes in diabetic NSTEMI patients. METHODS: A total of 750 diabetic NSTEMI patients from 27 hospitals were enrolled between January 2013 and December 2015 in the nationwide registry initiated by the Taiwan Society of Cardiology. Four score systems were calculated with receiver operator characteristic analysis used to compare outcome discrimination performance. RESULTS: No studied risk scores reached acceptable discrimination per area under curve (AUC) in the prediction of in-hospital outcome except for the revised CADILLAC score which reached acceptable discrimination in new-onset cardiogenic shock (AUC = 0.7191) and acute renal failure (AUC = 0.7283). In long-term outcomes, only the revised CADILLAC score reached acceptable discrimination of mortality prediction at 6, 12 and 24 months (AUC = 0.7261 at 6 months, 0.7319 at 12 months, and 0.7256 at 24 months). Subgroup analysis based on the revised CADILLAC score risk class showed a significant difference in adjusted mortality rate between low-risk group/intermediate-risk group and high-risk group. CONCLUSIONS: Only the revised CADILLAC score showed acceptable accuracy to predict the long-term mortality outcome among the scores studied.

Association of coronary artery calcification with SYNTAX scores and GRACE. / å† çŠ¶åŠ¨è„‰é’™åŒ–ä¸ŽSYNTAX评分和GRACEè¯„åˆ†çš„ç›¸å ³æ€§.

OBJECTIVES: To investigate the relationship among coronary artery calcification score (CACS), the number of calcification vessels, SYNTAX score and GRACE score in patients with coronary atherosclerotic heart disease (CHD). METHODS: The CACS, calcification vessel number, SYNTAX score, and GRACE score were collected or calculated from 214 CHD patients admitted in Haikou People's Hospital from January 2014 to April 2019. Patients were assigned into several groups according to the CACS and calcification vessel number, and then to compare the differences in SYNTAX and GRACE scores between groups. Spearman correlation coefficient was used to analyze the correlation between CACS or calcification vessel number and SYTAX score or GRACE score. Regression of binary logistic was used to analyze independent risk factors for coronary calcification. The diagnostic values of the CACS and calcification vessel number for predicting CHD, and SYNTAX score and GRACE score high-risk group were evaluated by the receiver operator characteristic (ROC) curve. RESULTS: Spearman correlation analysis showed that CACS was positively correlated with SYTAX score (r=0.505, P<0.01) or GRACE score (r=0.195, P<0.01). The number of calcified vessels was positively correlated with the SYNTAX score (r=0.533, P<0.01), but not with the GRACE score (r=-0.14, P=0.899). Regression of binary logistic showed that male and SYTAX scores were independent risk factors for coronary artery calcification (P<0.05). The analysis of ROC curve showed that the CACS was of good value in the diagnosis of CHD (AUC=0.756, P<0.01) and SYNTAX score high-risk group (AUC=0.781, P<0.01), while it was of lower value in the diagnostic of the GRACE score high-risk group (AUC=0.698, P<0.01). The value of calcification vessel number in the diagnosis of CHD (AUC=0.763, P<0.01) and the SYNTAX score high-risk group (AUC=0.868, P<0.01) was good, but that in the diagnosis of the GRACE score high-risk group (AUC=0.601, P=0.07) was not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with suspected CHD, CACS and calcification vessel number can predict the severity of CHD and the risk of future cardiovascular events. Measuring the CACS and the number of calcification vessels before coronary angiography has certain clinical significance for predicting the severity of coronary lesion and formulating the treatment plan.

Hospital mortality in acute coronary syndrome: adjustment of GRACE score by D-dimer enables a more accurate prediction in a prospective cohort study.

BACKGROUD: To assess the value of D-dimer and its combination with The Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in predicting in-hospital mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS) undergoing percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI). METHODS: In 5923 ACS patients undergoing PCI, the role of D-dimer and the added value of D-dimer to GRACE score for predicting in-hospital mortality were tested. RESULTS: After multivariable adjustment, D-dimer could significantly predict in-hospital mortality. Also, it could significantly improve the prognostic performance of GRACE score (C-statistic: z = 2.269, p = 0.023; IDI: 0.016, p = 0.032; NRI: 0.291, p = 0.035). CONCLUSION: In patients with ACS undergoing PCI, D-dimer was an independent predictor of in-hospital death. It could also improve the prognostic performance of GRACE score.

Clinical effectiveness of the systematic use of the GRACE scoring system (in addition to clinical assessment) for ischaemic outcomes and bleeding complications in the management of NSTEMI compared with clinical assessment alone: a prospective study.

UNLABELLED: We assessed the interest of systematically using the GRACE scoring system (in addition to clinical assessment) for in- hospital outcomes and bleeding complications in the management of NSTEMI compared with clinical assessments alone. Multicentre, randomized study that included 572 consecutive NSTEMI patients, randomized 1:1, into group A: clinical stratification alone and group B: clinical+ GRACE score stratification. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: in-hospital outcomes and bleeding complications. There was no significant difference between the two groups for baseline data or for in-hospital MACE. In multivariate analysis, only a GRACE >140 (OR: 3.5, 95 % CI: 1.8-6.6, p < 0.001) and PCI (OR: 0.55, 95 % CI: 0.3-1.0; p = 0.05) were independent predictors of in-hospital MACE. The sub-analysis of group B showed that 56 patients (20 %) were given a compliance score of 0, showing that diagnostic angiography was performed later than as recommended by the guidelines. Interestingly, 91 % had a GRACE score >140, and these patients were significantly older, and were more likely to have a history of diabetes, stroke and renal failure, together with symptoms of heart failure. After multivariate analysis, the independent predictors of a lack of compliance with guideline delays were a GRACE score >140 (OR: 9.2; CI: 4.2-20.3, p < 0.001) and secondary referral from a non-PCI cardiology department (OR: 2.7; CI: 1.4-5.2, p = 0.003). In a real-world setting of patients admitted with NSTEMI, the systematic use of the GRACE scoring system at admission in the PCI centre does not improve in-hospital outcomes and bleeding complications.

Respiratory rate predicts outcome after acute myocardial infarction: a prospective cohort study.

AIMS: Risk stratification after acute myocardial infarction (MI) remains imperfect and new indices are sought that might improve the post-MI risk assessment. In a contemporarily-treated cohort of acute MI patients, we tested whether the respiratory rate provides prognostic information and how this information compares to that of established risk assessment. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 941 consecutive patients (mean age 61 years, 19% female) presenting with acute MI were enrolled between May 2000 and March 2005. The last follow-up was performed May 2010. Main outcome measure was total mortality during a follow-up period of 5 years. Patients underwent 10-min resting recordings of the respiratory rate within 2 weeks after MI in addition to the measurement of the left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and standard clinical assessment including the GRACE score. During the follow-up, 72 patients died. The respiratory rate was a significant predictor of death in univariable analysis (hazard ratio 1.19 per 1/min, 95% confidence interval: 1.12-1.27) as was the GRACE score [1.04 (1.03-1.05) per point], LVEF [0.96 (0.94-0.97) per 1%], and the diagnosis of diabetes mellitus [2.78 (1.73-4.47)], all P < 0.0001. On multivariate analysis, the GRACE score (P < 0.0001), respiratory rate (P < 0.0001), LVEF (P = 0.013), and diabetes (P = 0.016) were independent prognostic markers. CONCLUSION: The respiratory rate provides powerful prognostic information which is independent and complementary to that of existing risk assessment. Simple and inexpensive assessment of the respiratory rate should be considered a complementary variable for the assessment of risk after acute MI.

Prediction of Major Adverse Cardiac Events After Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation: A Machine Learning Approach with GRACE Score.

Objectives: Predictive risk scores have a significant impact on patient selection and assessing the likelihood of complications following interventions in patients with severe aortic stenosis (AS). This study aims to explore the utility of machine learning (ML) techniques in predicting 30-day major adverse cardiac events (MACE) by analyzing parameters, including the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score. Methods: This retrospective, multi-center, observational study enrolled 453 consecutive patients diagnosed with severe AS who underwent transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) from April 2020 to January 2023. The primary outcome was defined as a composition of MACE comprising periprocedural myocardial infarction (MI), cerebrovascular events (CVE), and all-cause mortality during the 1-month follow-up period after the procedure. Conventional binomial logistic regression and ML models were utilized and compared for prediction purposes. Results: The study population had a mean age of 76.1, with 40.8% being male. The primary endpoint was observed in 7.5% of cases. Among the individual components of the primary endpoint, the rates of all-cause mortality, MI, and CVE were reported as 4.2%, 2.4%, and 1.9%, respectively. The ML-based Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) model with the GRACE score demonstrated superior discriminative performance in predicting the primary endpoint, compared to both the ML model without the GRACE score and the conventional regression model [Area Under the Curve (AUC)= 0.98 (0.91-0.99), AUC= 0,87 (0.80-0.98), AUC= 0.84 (0.79-0.96)]. Conclusion: ML techniques hold the potential to enhance outcomes in clinical practice, especially when utilized alongside established clinical tools such as the GRACE score.

Short- and long-term performance of risk calculation tools for mortality in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Background: The mortality rate of acute coronary syndrome (ACS) remains high. Therefore, patients with ACS should undergo early risk stratification, for which various risk calculation tools are available. However, it remains uncertain whether the predictive performance varies over time between risk calculation tools for different target periods. This study aimed to compare the predictive performance of risk calculation tools in estimating short- and long-term mortality risks in patients with ACS, while considering different observation periods using time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Methods: This study included 404 consecutive patients with ACS who underwent coronary angiography at our hospital from March 2017 to January 2021. The ACTION and GRACE scores for short-term risk stratification purposes and CRUSADE scores for long-term risk stratification purposes were calculated for all participants. The participants were followed up for 36 months to assess mortality. Using time-dependent ROC analysis, we evaluated the area under the curve (AUC) of the ACTION, CRUSADE, and GRACE scores at 1, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months. Results: Sixty-six patients died during the observation periods. The AUCs at 1, 6, 12, 24, and 36 months of the ACTION score were 0.942, 0.925, 0.889, 0.856, and 0.832; those of the CRUSADE score were 0.881, 0.883, 0.862, 0.876, and 0.862; and those of the GRACE score 0.949, 0.928, 0.888, 0.875, and 0.860, respectively. Conclusions: The ACTION and GRACE scores were excellent risk stratification tools for mortality in the short term. The prognostic performance of each risk score was almost similar in the long term, but the CRUSADE score might be a superior risk stratification tool in the longer term than 3 years.

The Predictive Value of Geriatric Nutritional Risk Index Combined with the GRACE Score in Predicting the Risk of One Year Poor Prognosis in Elderly Patients with Non-ST Segment Elevation Myocardial Infarction After PCI.

Background: As a nutritional indicator, a lower level of geriatric nutritional risk index (GNRI) has been suggested as a predictor for poor prognosis in acute coronary syndrome (ACS). However, whether GNRI could improve the predictive value of the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score for the prognosis in elderly patients with non-ST segment elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI) after PCI remains unclear. Methods: A total of 446 elderly patients with NSTEMI after percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) were consecutively enrolled. Patients were divided into major adverse cardiovascular and cerebrovascular events (MACCE) group and control group according to the occurrence of MACCE during one year follow up. The clinical parameters including GNRI were compared to investigate the predictors for MACCE. The performance after the addition of GNRI to the GRACE score for predicting MACCE was determined. Results: A total of 68 patients developed MACCE. In unadjusted analyses, the rate of MACCE was significantly higher in the 93.8

Comparison of Mortality Prediction by the GRACE Score, Multiple Biomarkers, and Their Combination in All-comer Patients with Acute Myocardial Infarction Undergoing Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention.

Objective This study examined the ability of a combination of biomarkers, including N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (N-BNP) and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), to better predict mortality than the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) score in acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients who received primary percutaneous coronary intervention (PPCI). Methods The in-hospital mortality in 754 all-comer patients with AMI who underwent successful PPCI over 8 years was examined. A receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was performed to determine the in-hospital mortality in a single center. A logistic regression analysis was used to compare the predictive accuracy of the GRACE score and biomarkers. The incremental predictive value of those biomarkers beyond the GRACE score was also examined. Results The mean age was 66±13 years old, and 609 patients with ST-elevated AMI (80.8%) were included. The in-hospital mortality was 6.8%. The GRACE score (in-hospital survivor/non-survivor: 106±33/161±32; p<0.05,) and N-BNP (in-hospital survivor/non-survivor: 2,458±7,058/8,880±1,1331 pg/mL; p<0.05) were significantly lower in survivors than in non-survivors. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of in-hospital mortality of the GRACE score was significantly higher than that of the dual-biomarker combination (0.868/0.720; p<0.05). The AUC of the combination of the GRACE score and dual-biomarkers was not significantly higher than that of the GRACE score alone (0.870/0.868; p=0.747). Conclusion The measurement of representative cardiovascular biomarkers did not provide any additional benefit for mortality prediction beyond the GRACE score in AMI patients who received PPCI.

Identification of predictors for the comprehensive clinical risk and severity of coronary lesions of acute coronary syndrome.

Background: Acute coronary syndrome (ACS) is the most common cause of death in patients with coronary artery disease. The aim of the study was to identify the predictors of both comprehensive clinical risk and severity of coronary lesions by comprehensive use of GRACE and SYNTAX scores in patients with ACS. Methods: Clinical data of 225 ACS patients who underwent coronary angiography between 2015 and 2016 were collected. Multiple logistic regression analysis (stepwise) was used to identify the predictors. The predictive ability of predictors and the model were determined using receiver operating characteristics analyses. Results: Multivariable logistic regression analyses showed that high aspartate aminotransferase (AST) predicted the comprehensive clinical risk with odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of 1.011 (1.002-1.021). High total cholesterol (TC) and red blood cell distribution width (RDW) predicted the severity of coronary lesions with ORs and 95% CIs of 1.517 (1.148-2.004) and 1.556 (1.195-2.028), respectively. Low prealbumin predicted both severity of coronary lesions and comprehensive clinical risk of ACS patients with ORs and 95% CIs of 0.743 (0.672-0.821) and 0.836 (0.769-0.909), respectively. The model with a combination of prealbumin and AST had the highest predictive efficacy for comprehensive clinical risk, and the combination of prealbumin, TC, and RDW had the highest predictive efficacy for the severity of coronary lesions. The sensitivity and specificity, and the optimal cut-off values of these four indexes were determined. Conclusions: Four predictors for the comprehensive clinical risk and severity of coronary lesions of ACS were identified, which provided important information for the early diagnosis and appropriate treatment of ACS.

Monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio as highly predictive marker in patients with acute coronary syndrome.

Aim: This study examined the relationship between Thrombolysis in Myocardial Infarction (TIMI) score and monocyte to high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) ratio (MHR) with Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events (GRACE) in patients with acute coronary syndrome (ACS). Materials & methods: A total of 1000 patients with ACS admitted to the Cardiology Department of the Dustira Army Hospital were included in this study. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed from January 2019 to June 2020 with consecutive sampling. Results: In the group with a higher TIMI score, the MHR result was considerably higher. In the same way, MHR was more significant in the group with a high-risk than in low-risk GRACE. Conclusion: MHR is a convenient, reproducible and correlates with GRACE and TIMI score as predictive biomarkers in patients with ACS.

[Comparison of Heart, Grace Scores and clinical parameters as predictors of cardiovascular events in patients with chest pain in the Emergency Department]. / Comparacion de las escalas Heart, Grace Score y los parámetros clínicos como predictores de eventos cardiovasculares en pacientes con dolor torácico en Urgencias.

OBJECTIVE: Risk assessment of patients with chest pain is based on clinical parameters; however, without a scoring system, such as risk stratification scales, estimates are less precise and accurate. The aim of this paper was to compare the HEART, GRACE score and clinical parameters in the prediction of major cardiovascular events (cardiovascular mortality or acute myocardial infarction) during hospitalization, in patients with chest pain attended in the emergency department. METHODS: A descriptive observational study of patients with ischemic chest pain, who attended to the Miguel Servet University Hospital emergency department (Zaragoza, Spain) during one year was carried out. HEART and GRACE scores were calculated retrospectively from clinical history. Quantitative variables were expressed as mean (±standard deviation), and qualitative variables as frequencies and percentages. A bivariate analysis was carried out using the chi-square test. The performance of the scales and clinical parameters was compared by calculating the area under the curve. The primary outcome was the occurrence of a major cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality or acute myocardial infarction) during hospital admission. RESULTS: 306 patients were registered (66.3% men, n=203), with a mean age of 71.45±12.85 years and a 48.7% history of ischemic heart disease. The areas under the curve for HEART scales, GRACE and clinical parameters were 0.80 (95% CI: 0.73-0.86), 0.79 (95% CI: 0.72-0.85) and 0.74 (95% CI: 0.68-0.80), respectively. During hospitalization, the incidence of the primary event was 13.4% and no low-risk patient, in both scales, presented a major cardiovascular event. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with ischemic chest pain attended in the emergency department, the GRACE and HEART scale have a greater area under curve than clinical parameters.

OBJECTIVE: La valoración del riesgo de los pacientes con dolor torácico se basa en los parámetros clínicos. Sin embargo, sin un sistema de puntuación, como las escalas de estratificación del riesgo, las estimaciones son menos precisas y exactas. El objetivo de este estudio fue comparar las escalas HEART, GRACE Score y los parámetros clínicos en la predicción de eventos mayores cardiovasculares (mortalidad cardiovascular o infarto agudo de miocardio) durante la hospitalización, en pacientes con dolor torácico atendidos en Urgencias. METHODS: Se realizó un estudio observacional descriptivo de pacientes que, durante un año, acudieron a Urgencias del Hospital Universitario Miguel Servet (Zaragoza) por dolor torácico de tipo isquémico. Las puntuaciones HEART y GRACE se calcularon retrospectivamente a partir de las historias clínicas. Las variables cuantitativas se expresaron como media (±desviación estándar), y las cualitativas como frecuencias y porcentajes. Se llevó a cabo un análisis bivariante mediante la prueba chi cuadrado. El rendimiento de las escalas y parámetros clínicos se comparó mediante el cálculo del área bajo la curva. El resultado primario fue la ocurrencia de un evento mayor cardiovascular (mortalidad cardiovascular o infarto agudo de miocardio) durante el ingreso hospitalario. RESULTS: Se registraron 306 pacientes (66,3% eran hombres, n=203), con edad media de 71,45±12,85 años y un 48,7% de antecedentes de cardiopatía isquémica. El área bajo la curva, para el evento primario, de las escalas HEART, GRACE y parámetros clínicos fue 0,80 (IC al 95%: 0,73-0,86), 0,79 (IC al 95%: 0,72- 0,85) y 0,74 (IC del 95%: 0,68-0,80), respectivamente. Durante la hospitalización, la incidencia del evento primario fue del 13,4% y ningún paciente de bajo riesgo, en ambas escalas, presentó un evento mayor cardiovascular. CONCLUSIONS: En pacientes con dolor torácico de tipo isquémico atendidos en Urgencias, tanto la escala GRACE como la escala HEART presentan un área bajo la curva más alta que los parámetros clínicos.

Performance of Prognostic Scoring Systems in MINOCA: A Comparison among GRACE, TIMI, HEART, and ACEF Scores.

Background: the prognosis of patients with myocardial infarction with non-obstructive coronary arteries (MINOCA) is not benign; thus, prompting the need to validate prognostic scoring systems for this population. Aim: to evaluate and compare the prognostic performance of GRACE, TIMI, HEART, and ACEF scores in MINOCA patients. Methods: A total of 250 MINOCA patients from January 2017 to September 2021 were included. For each patient, the four scores at admission were retrospectively calculated. The primary outcome was a composite of all-cause death and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) at 1-year follow-up. The ability to predict 1-year all-cause death was also tested. Results: Overall, the tested scores presented a sub-optimal performance in predicting the composite major adverse event in MINOCA patients, showing an AUC ranging between 0.7 and 0.8. Among them, the GRACE score appeared to be the best in predicting all-cause death, reaching high specificity with low sensitivity. The best cut-off identified for the GRACE score was 171, higher compared to the cut-off of 140 generally applied to identify high-risk patients with obstructive AMI. When the scores were tested for prediction of 1-year all-cause death, the GRACE and the ACEF score showed very good accuracy (AUC = 0.932 and 0.828, respectively). Conclusion: the prognostic scoring tools, validated in AMI cohorts, could be useful even in MINOCA patients, although their performance appeared sub-optimal, prompting the need for risk assessment tools specific to MINOCA patients.