Refracture and mortality risk in the elderly with osteoporotic fractures: the AGES-Reykjavik study.

There is imminent refracture risk in elderly individuals for up to six years, with a decline thereafter except in women below 75 who face a constant elevated risk. Elderly men with fractures face the highest mortality risk, particularly those with hip and vertebral fractures. Targeted monitoring and treatment strategies are recommended. PURPOSE: Current management and interventions for osteoporotic fractures typically focus on bone mineral density loss, resulting in suboptimal evaluation of fracture risk. The aim of the study is to understand the progression of fractures to refractures and mortality in the elderly using multi-state models to better target those at risk. METHODS: This prospective, observational study analysed data from the AGES-Reykjavik cohort of Icelandic elderly, using multi-state models to analyse the evolution of fractures into refractures and mortality, and to estimate the probability of future events in subjects based on prognostic factors. RESULTS: At baseline, 4778 older individuals aged 65 years and older were included. Elderly men, and elderly women above 80 years of age, had a distinct imminent refracture risk that lasted between 2-6 years, followed by a sharp decline. However, elderly women below 75 continued to maintain a nearly constant refracture risk profile for ten years. Hip (30-63%) and vertebral (24-55%) fractures carried the highest 5-year mortality burden for elderly men and women, regardless of age, and for elderly men over 80, lower leg fractures also posed a significant mortality risk. CONCLUSION: The risk of refracture significantly increases in the first six years following the initial fracture. Elderly women, who experience fractures at a younger age, should be closely monitored to address their long-term elevated refracture risk. Elderly men, especially those with hip and vertebral fractures, face substantial mortality risk and require prioritized monitoring and treatment.

MRI-based radiomics assessment of the imminent new vertebral fracture after vertebral augmentation.

BACKGROUND: Imminent new vertebral fracture (NVF) is highly prevalent after vertebral augmentation (VA). An accurate assessment of the imminent risk of NVF could help to develop prompt treatment strategies. PURPOSE: To develop and validate predictive models that integrated the radiomic features and clinical risk factors based on machine learning algorithms to evaluate the imminent risk of NVF. MATERIALS AND METHODS: In this retrospective study, a total of 168 patients with painful osteoporotic vertebral compression fractures treated with VA were evaluated. Radiomic features of L1 vertebrae based on lumbar T2-weighted images were obtained. Univariate and LASSO-regression analyses were applied to select the optimal features and construct radiomic signature. The radiomic signature and clinical signature were integrated to develop a predictive model by using machine learning algorithms including LR, RF, SVM, and XGBoost. Receiver operating characteristic curve and calibration curve analyses were used to evaluate the predictive performance of the models. RESULTS: The radiomic-XGBoost model with the highest AUC of 0.93 of the training cohort and 0.9 of the test cohort among the machine learning algorithms. The combined-XGBoost model with the best performance with an AUC of 0.9 in the training cohort and 0.9 in the test cohort. The radiomic-XGBoost model and combined-XGBoost model achieved better performance to assess the imminent risk of NVF than that of the clinical risk factors alone (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Radiomic and machine learning modeling based on T2W images of preoperative lumbar MRI had an excellent ability to evaluate the imminent risk of NVF after VA.

The imminent risk of a fracture-existing worldwide data: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

The overall incidence of imminent fracture after a prior fragility fracture was 7.58% in the first year and 11.58% in the first 2 years. Approximately half of re-fractures occurred in the first 2 years after a fragility fracture. Older patients that have suffered from a fragility fracture should be treated promptly, with immediate care and a secondary fracture prevention to prevent the high imminent risk of a fracture. INTRODUCTION: Imminent fractures refer to the fractures that occur within 2 years of an initial fracture. It is well known that the risk of a subsequent fracture is not constant with time and occurs shortly after the initial one. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to present the existing data on imminent fracture worldwide. METHODS: Literature search was conducted in Pubmed, Embase, and Web of Science databases until 26 October 2021 for studies reporting the incidence of imminent osteoporotic fractures among people aged 50 years or older. The overall incidence of imminent fracture was pooled and subgroup analyses of index fracture sites and regions on incidence of imminent fracture were performed, with the 95% confidence interval (CI) being calculated. Percentage of imminent fracture occurring in follow-up period was calculated and pooled by meta-analysis. Hazard ratio (HR) was used to estimate the gender differences on the imminent risk of fracture. RESULTS: A total of 1446 articles were identified. Nineteen observational studies were eligible for our systematic review, in which 18 were used for quantitative analysis. Pooled overall incidence of imminent fracture in the first year after an osteoporotic fracture was 7.58% (95% CI 5.84 to 9.31%) and cumulative incidence in the first 2 years was 11.58% (95% CI 8.94 to 14.21%). Subgroup analysis showed that in the first 2 years, the pooled incidence in Asia was 7.30% (95% CI 3.42 to 11.18%), whilst incidence in Europe/North America was 13.17% (95% CI 10.14 to 16.20%). In included studies with follow-up period of more than 5 years, pooled imminent fracture percentage in the first 2 years was 47.24% (95% CI 26.18 to 68.30%). Hazard ratio (HR) on gender showed that women had an overall slight increase in risk of imminent fractures (HR 1.18, 95% CI 1.11 to 1.25). CONCLUSION: The incidence of imminent fracture is high globally at 11.58%. Approximately half of all refractures occur in the first 2 years after an index fragility fracture. Older patients that have suffered from a fragility fracture should be treated promptly. Also, immediate care and secondary fracture prevention are necessary to prevent the high imminent risk of a fracture, especially within the first 2 years.

Hip fracture predicts subsequent hip fracture: a retrospective observational study to support a call to early hip fracture prevention efforts in post-fracture patients.

In this real-world retrospective cohort, subsequent hip fracture occurred in one in four patients with any initial fracture, most often after hip fracture, on average within 1.5 years. These data support the need for early post-fracture interventions to help reduce imminent hip fracture risk and high societal and humanistic costs. PURPOSE: This large retrospective cohort study aimed to provide hip fracture data, in the context of other fractures, to help inform efforts related to hip fracture prevention focusing on post-fracture patients. METHODS: A cohort of 115,776 patients (72.3% female) aged > 65 (median age 81) with an index fracture occurring at skeletal sites related to age-related bone loss between January 1, 2011, and March 31, 2015, was identified using health services data from Ontario, Canada, and followed until March 31, 2017. RESULTS: Hip fracture was the most common second fracture (27.8%), occurring in ≥ 19% of cases after each index fracture site and most frequently (33.0%) after hip index fracture. Median time to a second fracture of the hip was ~ 1.5 years post-index event. Patients with index hip fracture contributed the most to fracture-related initial surgeries (64.1%) and post-surgery complications (71.9%) and had the second-highest total mean healthcare cost per patient in the first year after index fracture ($62,793 ± 44,438). One-year mortality (any cause) after index hip fracture was 26.2% vs. 15.9% in the entire cohort, and 25.9% after second hip fracture. CONCLUSION: A second fracture at the hip was observed in one in four patients after any index fracture and in one in three patients with an index hip fracture, on average within 1.5 years. Index hip fracture was associated with high mortality and post-surgery complication rates and healthcare costs relative to other fractures. These data support focusing on early hip fracture prevention efforts in post-fracture patients.

The use of 2-, 5-, and 10-year probabilities to characterize fracture risk after a recent sentinel fracture.

The increase in fracture risk associated with a recent fragility fracture is more appropriately captured using a 10-year fracture probability than 2- or 5-year probabilities. INTRODUCTION: The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 2-, 5-, and 10-year probability of fracture. METHODS: The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) occurring within the previous 2 years and probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios were used to adjust fracture probabilities over a 2-, 5-, and 10-year time horizon. RESULTS: As expected, probabilities decreased with decreasing time horizon. Probability ratios varied according to age and the site of sentinel fracture. Probability ratios to adjust for a prior fracture within the previous 2 years were higher the shorter the time horizon, but the absolute increases in fracture probabilities were much reduced. Thus, fracture probabilities were substantially lower with time horizons less than 10 years. CONCLUSION: The 10-year probability of fractures is the appropriate metric to capture the impact of the recency of sentinel fractures. The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures, adjustments which can readily inform clinical decision-making.

Osteoporotic fractures and subsequent fractures: imminent fracture risk from an analysis of German real-world claims data.

PURPOSE: In osteoporosis, prior fracture is a strong predictor of subsequent fracture. This study aimed to assess the imminent risk of subsequent fracture following an initial fracture in osteoporosis patients in Germany, and to identify clinical and demographic characteristics that are independently associated with subsequent fracture risk. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational cohort study using German real-world claims data, male and female patients aged ≥ 50 years with osteoporosis who experienced an initial ("index") hip/femur, vertebral, forearm/wrist/hand or shoulder/upper arm fracture between 2010 and 2014 were included. The incidence and timing of subsequent fractures during a 1-year follow-up period were analyzed. Independent risk factors for subsequent fracture were identified by multivariate regression analysis. RESULTS: A total of 18,354 patients (mean age: 77 years; standard deviation: 9.8) were included. Of these, 2918 (15.9%) suffered a subsequent fracture during the 1-year follow-up period. The incidence of subsequent fracture was higher following an index vertebral fracture (18.0%) than after an index forearm/wrist/hand fracture (14.1%) or index hip/femur fracture (12.1%). Subsequent 1-year fracture incidence was generally higher in older patients. Index fracture type, age, epilepsy/use of antiepileptics, and heart failure were all independently associated with subsequent fracture risk. CONCLUSION: Osteoporosis patients in Germany are at imminent risk of subsequent fracture during the first year following an initial fracture. They should be targeted for immediate post-fracture treatment to reduce the risk of further fractures, especially in the presence of specific risk factors such as old age or index vertebral fracture.

Determinants of imminent fracture risk in postmenopausal women with osteoporosis.

In elderly women with osteoporosis, prior fracture, low BMD, impaired physical functioning, poorer general health, and recent falls were all direct predictors of imminent (in next year) fracture risk. Prior fracture, older age, worse health, impaired cognitive functioning, and recent falls indirectly increased imminent risk by reducing physical functioning/general health. INTRODUCTION: This study was designed to examine determinants of imminent risk of osteoporotic fracture (i.e., next 1-2 years) in postmenopausal women. METHODS: This retrospective cohort study used data from Caucasian women age 65 or older with osteoporosis who participated in the observational Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). We examined potential direct and indirect predictors of hip and nonvertebral fractures in 1-year follow-up intervals including anthropometric measures, bone mineral density (T-score), fracture since age 50, physical function, cognition, medical conditions, recent (past year) falls, and lifestyle factors. Clinically related variables were grouped into constructs via factor analysis. These constructs and selected individual variables were incorporated into a theoretical structural equation model to evaluate factors that influence imminent risk. RESULTS: Among 2261 patients, 19.4% had a nonvertebral fracture and 5.5% had a hip fracture within 1 year of a study visit between 1992 and 2008. Prior fracture, lower T-scores, lower physical functioning, and recent falls all directly increased 1-year risk of nonvertebral fracture. For both nonvertebral and hip fractures, prior fracture and recent falls influenced risk indirectly through general health, while cognition influenced risk via physical functioning. Age influenced both physical functioning and general health. CONCLUSIONS: Several established risk factors for 10-year fracture risk also played a role in predicting imminent risk of fracture (e.g., T-scores, prior fracture), as did falls, cognition, physical functioning, and general health. Fracture risk assessments should also consider falls and fall risk factors as well as established bone-related risk factors in assessing imminent fracture risk.

Adjusting conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability according to the recency of sentinel fractures.

The risk of a recurrent fragility fracture is particularly high immediately following the fracture. This study provides adjustments to FRAX-based fracture probabilities accounting for the site of a recent fracture. INTRODUCTION: The recency of prior fractures affects subsequent fracture risk. The aim of this study was to quantify the effect of a recent sentinel fracture, by site, on the 10-year probability of fracture determined with FRAX. METHODS: The study used data from the Reykjavik Study fracture register that documented prospectively all fractures at all skeletal sites in a large sample of the population of Iceland. Fracture probabilities were determined after a sentinel fracture (humeral, clinical vertebral, forearm and hip fracture) from the hazards of death and fracture. Fracture probabilities were computed on the one hand for sentinel fractures occurring within the previous 2 years and on the other hand, probabilities for a prior osteoporotic fracture irrespective of recency. The probability ratios provided adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures. RESULTS: Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a major osteoporotic fracture for recent sentinel fractures were age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women. Probability ratios varied according to the site of sentinel fracture with higher ratios for hip and vertebral fracture than for humerus or forearm fracture. Probability ratios to adjust 10-year FRAX probabilities of a hip fracture for recent sentinel fractures were also age dependent, decreasing with age in both men and women with the exception of forearm fractures. CONCLUSION: The probability ratios provide adjustments to conventional FRAX estimates of fracture probability for recent sentinel fractures.

Romosozumab or alendronate for fracture prevention in East Asian patients: a subanalysis of the phase III, randomized ARCH study.

Romosozumab, a sclerostin antibody, exerts dual effect to increase bone formation and decrease bone resorption. Among high-risk postmenopausal East Asian women, romosozumab followed by alendronate was associated with lower incidences of fractures vs alendronate alone. Romosozumab demonstrates potential to address an unmet need in osteoporosis management in Asia. INTRODUCTION: Romosozumab, a sclerostin antibody, exerts dual effect to increase bone formation and decrease bone resorption. The global ARCH study demonstrated superiority of romosozumab followed by alendronate in reducing fracture risk in high-risk postmenopausal osteoporotic women vs alendronate alone. We report outcomes among ARCH East Asian patients. METHODS: In ARCH, 4093 postmenopausal osteoporotic women with fragility fracture were randomized 1:1 to monthly romosozumab 210 mg or weekly alendronate 70 mg for 12 months, both followed by open-label alendronate. Primary endpoints were incidence of new vertebral fracture (VF) at 24 months and clinical fracture at primary analysis (confirmed fractures in ≥ 330 patients and all patients had opportunity to attend month 24 visit). This post hoc analysis was not powered to detect fracture-rate differences. RESULTS: This analysis included 275 patients from Hong Kong, Korea, and Taiwan. Romosozumab followed by alendronate reduced risk of new VFs at 24 months by 60% (P = 0.11) and clinical fractures at primary analysis by 44% (P = 0.15) vs alendronate alone. Romosozumab followed by alendronate significantly increased mean bone mineral density at 24 months from baseline by a further 9.0%, 3.3%, and 3.0% at the lumbar spine, total hip, and femoral neck vs alendronate alone. Adverse event (AE) rates, including positively adjudicated serious cardiovascular AEs (1.6% vs 1.4% at 12 months for romosozumab vs alendronate), were similar across treatment groups. CONCLUSIONS: Consistent with the global analysis, romosozumab followed by alendronate was associated with lower incidences of new vertebral, clinical, non-vertebral, and hip fractures vs alendronate alone among East Asian patients.

Characteristics of recurrent fractures.

The present study, drawn from a sample of the Icelandic population, quantified high immediate risk and utility loss of subsequent fracture after a sentinel fracture (at the hip, spine, distal forearm and humerus) that attenuated with time. INTRODUCTION: The risk of a subsequent osteoporotic fracture is particularly acute immediately after an index fracture and wanes progressively with time. The aim of this study was to quantify the risk and utility consequences of subsequent fracture after a sentinel fracture (at the hip, spine, distal forearm and humerus) with an emphasis on the time course of recurrent fracture. METHODS: The Reykjavik Study fracture registration, drawn from a sample of the Icelandic population (n = 18,872), recorded all fractures of the participants from their entry into the study until December 31, 2012. Medical records for the participants were manually examined and verified. First sentinel fractures were identified. Subsequent fractures, deaths, 10-year probability of fracture and cumulative disutility using multipliers derived from the International Costs and Utilities Related to Osteoporotic fractures Study (ICUROS) were examined as a function of time after fracture, age and sex. RESULTS: Over 10 years, subsequent fractures were sustained in 28% of 1498 individuals with a sentinel hip fracture. For other sentinel fractures, the proportion ranged from 35 to 38%. After each sentinel fracture, the risk of subsequent fracture was highest in the immediate post fracture interval and decreased markedly with time. Thus, amongst individuals who sustained a recurrent fracture, 31-45% did so within 1 year of the sentinel fracture. Hazard ratios for fracture recurrence (population relative risks) were accordingly highest immediately after the sentinel fracture (2.6-5.3, depending on the site of fracture) and fell progressively over 10 years (1.5-2.2). Population relative risks also decreased progressively with age. The utility loss during the first 10 years after a sentinel fracture varied by age (less with age) and sex (greater in women). In women at the age of 70 years, the mean utility loss due to fractures in the whole cohort was 0.081 whereas this was 12-fold greater in women with a sentinel hip fracture, and was increased 15-fold for spine fracture, 4-fold for forearm fracture and 8-fold for humeral fracture. CONCLUSION: High fracture risks and utility loss immediately after fracture suggest that treatment given as soon as possible after fracture would avoid a higher number of new fractures compared with treatment given later. This provides the rationale for very early intervention immediately after a sentinel fracture.

Risk of osteoporotic fracture and refracture: the importance of index fracture site.

The current study shows that patients aged 50 or more who have sustained an osteoporotic fracture have a significant risk of suffering a new fracture. Refracture risk is also increased when anatomic site of both index and subsequent fracture are the same. PURPOSE: The purpose of this study is to describe the profile of a patient sustaining a fragility fracture, the influence of the initial or index fracture on subsequent fracture risk and the role that anatomic site of index and subsequent fracture play on fracture risk. METHODS: In this retrospective observational cohort study, individuals aged ≥ 50 years who sustained at least one clinical fragility fracture were identified from the public health service register between January 1, 2014, and December 31, 2015. Two separate analysis cohorts were identified. Group 1 (index FF) included patients that sustained at least one clinical fragility fracture during the study period. Group 2 (subsequent FF) included those patients from group 1 who sustained at least one clinical subsequent fracture during the following 2 years after index fracture. RESULTS: A total of 11,986 fractures constituted group 1 (index FF), and 792 constituted group 2 (subsequent FF). The incidence of subsequent fractures was 6.61%, with a major percentage of them (36.99%) identified within the first 6 months following index FF. Hip was the most frequent site for index (30.09%) and subsequent fracture (34.85%). We found an increased risk mainly when anatomic site of index and subsequent FF are the same. CONCLUSIONS: Sustaining a subsequent fracture after an index fracture is a common event in the population over age 50, more commonly occurring within 6 months of index fracture. Analysis of fracture site correlation shows that refracture risk is increased mainly when index and subsequent fracture site are the same.

Implications of FRAX® adjusted for recent fracture on the indication of treatment in an FLS.

We analyzed the practical consequences of applying an adjusted FRAX® for recent fractures in a FLS. After analyzing 2777 patients, we concluded that the adjusted FRAX® is irrelevant when calculating FRAX® with DXA and is only useful for fractures of the humerus when DXA is not available. PURPOSE: A FRAX® adjusted to fractures less than 2 years old has been proposed. The objective of this work was to analyze the clinical implications of applying the adjusted FRAX® instead of the classic FRAX® in a fracture liaison service (FLS) unit. METHODS: Adults aged 50 years or older with fragility fractures (hip, spine, humerus, and forearm) that occurred in the 12 months prior to the baseline visit were included. We recorded demographic data, type of fracture, DXA, classic FRAX®, and FRAX® adjusted for recent fractures and indications for anti-osteoporotic medication (AOM) following the guidelines of the Spanish Society of Rheumatology. RESULTS: A total of 2777 patients were included, mean age 73 years, 84% women. The type of fracture was as follows: forearm (n = 958; 34.5%), hip (n = 781; 28.1%), humerus (n = 642; 23.1%), and spine (n = 397, 14.3%). DXA was performed in 2134 cases (76.8%). A total of 2522 patients (90.8%) were candidates for AOM (100% involving the hip and spine, 83% forearm, and 85% humerus). FRAX®-hip ≥ 3% increased from 1601 to 1775 cases (57.6 to 64%). The average FRAX®-hip (SD) increased from 5.7 (6) to 7.5 (9) (4.6 to 8.8 in males and 5.9 to 7.3 in females). The percentage of forearm fracture candidates for AOM, with or without DXA, did not change after FRAX®-hip adjustment, while the number of patients with humerus fractures increased from 59 to 80% in those who did not have DXA. In the entire sample, FRAX®-adjusted led to an indication of AOM for 15 additional patients (0.5% of major fractures): 14 with a humerus fracture and 1 with a forearm fracture. CONCLUSIONS: The adjusted FRAX® for recent fractures in an FLS unit in an adjusted FRAX® is irrelevant when calculating FRAX® with DXA; in fact, it is only useful for fractures of the humerus when DXA is not available.

Incidence of different types of subsequent fractures and related mortality in Taiwan.

Hip fracture is the most common type of fracture to occur within 2 years after an initial fracture. Mortality risk increases when a subsequent fracture occurs. The occurrence of subsequent fracture is significantly higher in patients with hip fractures than others. Prevention of subsequent fracture is of paramount important. PURPOSE: Osteoporotic fracture significantly increases risk of subsequent fracture. In this retrospective cohort study, we used the Taiwan National Health Insurance Database (NHIRD) to analyze data on fractures in a group at high risk of osteoporosis. We aimed to distinguish differences in subsequent fracture types and their relationship with mortality. METHODS: We enrolled patients aged ≥ 50 years old who were diagnosed with an initial fracture classified as hip, vertebral, upper end of the humerus, or wrist. Data from 2 years of follow-up were analyzed. Risks of subsequent fracture events and mortality were calculated by Kaplan-Meier estimation and assessed with Cox proportional hazards models. RESULTS: We included 375,836 patients from the 2011-2015 NHIRD. Patients with initial hip fracture had the highest incidence of subsequent fracture at both 1- and 2-year follow-up (7.0% and 10.9%). Subsequent fractures occurred mainly at the hip. Conversely, other patients had a higher proportion of subsequent vertebral fracture. Patients with subsequent fracture classified as hip, vertebral, and upper end of the humerus had significantly higher cumulative mortality rates than that of patients who had no subsequent fracture, with adjusted hazard ratios of 1.64 (95% CI = 1.57-1.71, p < 0.01), 1.06 (95% CI = 1.00-1.12, p = 0.04), 1.31 (95% CI = 1.17-1.46, p < 0.01), respectively. CONCLUSION: Patients who experienced an initial hip fracture are at greatest risk of subsequent fracture, most commonly the hip. Occurrence of subsequent fractures was associated with an increased mortality risk. Thus, there is a need for early intervention following initial hip fractures.

The Effect of Fracture Recency on Observed 10-Year Fracture Probability: A Registry-Based Cohort Study.

FRAX estimates 10-year fracture major osteoporotic fracture (MOF) and hip fracture probability from multiple risk factors. FRAX does not consider prior fracture site or time since fracture. Fracture risk is greater in the initial 2-year post-fracture period (imminent risk), implying that FRAX may underestimate risk in this setting. We used the population-based Manitoba Bone Mineral Density (BMD) Program registry to examine the effect of fracture recency and site on incident fracture risk predictions using FRAX. We identified women aged 40 years or older with baseline BMD and FRAX scores. Observed fracture outcomes to 10 years were compared with predicted 10-year fracture probability stratified by prior fracture status: none, recent (<2 years [median 0.3 years]), and remote (≥2 years [median 10.6 years]). For women with recent fractures, we also examined proposed multipliers to adjust FRAX for the effect of fracture recency and site. The cohort comprised 33,465 women aged 40 to 64 years (1897 recent fracture, 2120 remote fracture) and 33,806 women aged ≥65 years (2365 fracture, 4135 remote fracture). Observed fracture probability was consistent with predicted probability in most analyses. In women aged 40 to 64 years, there was a significant effect of recent vertebral and humerus fracture on MOF (observed to predicted 1.61 and 1.48, respectively), but these effects were still lower than the proposed multipliers (2.32 and 1.67, respectively). No significant effect of fracture recency was found after hip or forearm fracture in either age group. Our findings contribute to accumulating evidence of the importance of recent fracture. The effect of fracture recency was not consistent across fracture sites and with a lower magnitude than previously reported. Further quantification of effect size and specificity in additional independent cohorts is warranted to validate and refine recent-fracture multipliers in fracture risk assessment. © 2022 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research (ASBMR).

Assessing the predictive ability of the Suicide Crisis Inventory for near-term suicidal behavior using machine learning approaches.

OBJECTIVE: This study explores the prediction of near-term suicidal behavior using machine learning (ML) analyses of the Suicide Crisis Inventory (SCI), which measures the Suicide Crisis Syndrome, a presuicidal mental state. METHODS: SCI data were collected from high-risk psychiatric inpatients (N = 591) grouped based on their short-term suicidal behavior, that is, those who attempted suicide between intake and 1-month follow-up dates (N = 20) and those who did not (N = 571). Data were analyzed using three predictive algorithms (logistic regression, random forest, and gradient boosting) and three sampling approaches (split sample, Synthetic minority oversampling technique, and enhanced bootstrap). RESULTS: The enhanced bootstrap approach considerably outperformed the other sampling approaches, with random forest (98.0% precision; 33.9% recall; 71.0% Area under the precision-recall curve [AUPRC]; and 87.8% Area under the receiver operating characteristic [AUROC]) and gradient boosting (94.0% precision; 48.9% recall; 70.5% AUPRC; and 89.4% AUROC) algorithms performing best in predicting positive cases of near-term suicidal behavior using this dataset. CONCLUSIONS: ML can be useful in analyzing data from psychometric scales, such as the SCI, and for predicting near-term suicidal behavior. However, in cases such as the current analysis where the data are highly imbalanced, the optimal method of measuring performance must be carefully considered and selected.

Examining the impact of emergency care settings on suicidal patients: A call to action.

OBJECTIVE: The emergency department (ED) offers a critical and unique opportunity to assess and intervene on suicide risk. Despite its potential benefits, the ED setting presents several potential sources of stress. The present paper calls attention to how suicidal patients may be especially vulnerable to stressful ED experiences. METHOD: This research synthesis cites the growing literature on ED-related stressors, as they have been shown to affect both psychiatric and nonpsychiatric patient populations. RESULTS: We identified specific interpersonal, physical, and temporal features of the ED that have been shown to affect multiple patient populations, including suicidal individuals. Beyond this, there appears to be broad underutilization of therapeutic care in ED settings. CONCLUSIONS: It is important to consider how the ED setting may be both helpful and harmful toward suicidal patients. We conclude with recommended domains of study and methodological considerations when pursuing these future directions. The proposed research agenda would help address this known high risk period around hospitalization and discharge, and ultimately optimize suicide prevention efforts.

Predictors of imminent risk of fracture in Medicare-enrolled men and women.

Advancing age, female sex, recent prior fracture and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications contribute to imminent (within 1-2 years) risk of fracture in Medicare enrollees. Clinician awareness of these risk factors and their dynamic nature may lead to improved osteoporosis care for elderly patients. PURPOSE: The burden of osteoporotic fracture disproportionately affects the elderly. Growing awareness that fracture risk can change substantially over time underscores the need to understand risk factors for imminent (within 1-2 years) fracture. This study assessed predictors of imminent risk of fracture in the US Medicare population. METHODS: Administrative claims data from a random sample of Medicare beneficiaries were analyzed for patients aged ≥ 67 years on January 1, 2011 (index date), with continuous coverage between January 1, 2009 and March 31, 2011, excluding patients with non-melanoma cancer or Paget's disease. Incident osteoporotic fractures were identified during 12 and 24 months post-index. Potential predictors were age, sex, race, history of fracture, history of falls, presence of osteoporosis, cardiovascular diseases, chronic obstructive pulmonary disorder (COPD), mood/anxiety disorders, polyinflammatory conditions, difficulty walking, use of durable medical equipment, ambulance/life support, and pre-index use of osteoporosis medications, steroids, or central nervous system medications. Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate predictors of fracture risk in the two follow-up intervals. RESULTS: Among 1,780,451 individuals included (mean age 77.7 years, 66% female), 8.3% had prior fracture and 6.1% had a history of falls. During the 12- and 24-month follow-up periods, 3.0% and 5.4% of patients had an incident osteoporotic fracture, respectively. Imminent risk of fracture increased with older age (double/triple), female sex (> 80%), recent prior fracture (> double) and falls, and specific comorbidities and medications. CONCLUSIONS: Demographics and factors including fall/fracture history, comorbidities, and medications contribute to imminent risk of fracture in elderly patients.

Risk of major osteoporotic fracture after first, second and third fracture in Swedish women aged 50 years and older.

BACKGROUND: Osteoporosis affects approximately one in five European women and leads to fragility fractures, which result in poor health, social and economic consequences. Fragility fractures are a strong risk factor for subsequent major osteoporotic fracture (MOF), with risk of MOF being elevated in the 1-2 years following an earlier fracture, a concept described as "imminent risk". This study examines risk of subsequent MOF in patients with one, two or three prior fractures by age and type of fracture. METHODS: In this retrospective, observational cohort study, Swedish women aged ≥50 years with ≥1 any clinical fragility fracture between July 1, 2006 and December 31, 2012 were identified from Sweden's National Patient Register. Each patient was age- and sex-matched to three controls without history of fracture. Group 1 women included those with one fragility fracture during the study period; Group 2 included those with two fragility fractures; and Group 3 included those with three fragility fractures. "Index fracture" was defined as the first fracture during the study period for Group 1; the second for Group 2; and the third for Group 3. Patients in each cohort and matched controls were followed for up to 60 months or until subsequent MOF (hip, vertebra, forearm, humerus), death or end of data availability. RESULTS: 231,769 women with at least one fracture were included in the study and therefore constituted Group 1; of these, 39,524 constituted Group 2 and of those, 7656 constituted Group 3. At five years, cumulative incidence of subsequent MOF was higher in patients with a history of fracture as compared to controls (Group 1: 20.7% vs 12.3%; Group 2: 32.0% vs 15.3%). Three-year cumulative incidence for Group 3 was 12.1% (vs 10.7% for controls). After adjusting for baseline covariates, risk of subsequent MOF was highest within 0-24 months following an index fracture, then decreased but remained elevated as compared to controls. Having two prior fractures, vertebral fractures and younger age at time of index fracture were associated with greater relative risk. CONCLUSIONS: Women with a history of osteoporotic fracture are at increased risk of subsequent fracture, which is highest during the first 24 months following a fracture. Younger women and those with vertebral fractures are at greatest relative risk, suggesting that treatment should target these patients and be timely enough to impact the period of imminent risk.

The role of substance use, smoking, and inflammation in risk for suicidal behavior.

BACKGROUND: Alcohol and substance use disorders are important predictors for suicidal behavior. However, the role of individual substances as proximal risk factors for suicidal behavior and the mechanisms through which substance use affect risk are not entirely clear. We examine whether the frequency of substance use and whether biological markers in the HPA axis and inflammatory pathways are associated with clinical risk factors of suicidal behavior of aggression, impulsivity, hopelessness, and poor sleep. METHODS: The sample consisted of psychiatric inpatients, aged 15-30 years, admitted for suicide attempt (n = 38), suicidal ideation (n = 40); and healthy controls (n = 37). We measured hair cortisol concentrations, glucocorticoid receptor (GR) sensitivity, stimulated production of interleukin- or IL-6, C-reactive protein, and mRNA expression of GR, SKA2, FKBP5, TNF-α, and IL-1ß. RESULTS: Smoking was associated with increased aggression [ß = 2.9, 95% CI (-0.03, 6), p = 0.05], impulsivity [ß = 3.1, 95% CI (1.6, 4.6), p < 0.001], and poor sleep [ß = 0.5, 95% CI (0.03, 0.95), p = 0.04] even after controlling for demographics and group. Similarly, TNF-α mRNA was associated with impulsivity [ß = 0.07, 95% CI (0.01, 0.1), p = 0.02] and hopelessness [ß = 0.03, 95% CI (0.004, 0.05), p = 0.03]. Smoking tobacco (r = 0.32, p < 0.001) was positively associated with TNF-α mRNA. LIMITATIONS: Study limitations include the cross-sectional design, retrospective assessment, and relatively small sample size. CONCLUSIONS: Future longitudinal studies are needed to test whether inflammatory markers mediate the relationships between smoking, clinical risk factors, and suicidal behavior; and to examine whether smoking cessation could reduce the risk for suicidal behavior in at-risk patients.

Living Without Restraint: One Parent's Reflections and Recommendations for Supporting At-Risk Individuals With Developmental Disabilities.

In the past several years, there has been an important movement to reduce the utilization of restraint for individuals with developmental disabilities. Legislatures, local and national, are taking on the task of shaping the way that our culture supports people who, up until now, have been often treated in a punitive manner rather than truly supportive in a therapeutic way. Schools and systems of care struggle to identify strategies that offer more positive outcomes to all individuals, even those with challenging behaviors. This article represents the thoughts and recommendations of one parent who has lived with the damage done by restraint to his son. The recommendations are intended to speak to administrators, schools, and caregivers. The intent is not to assign blame, but rather to reflect on our experiences and share some strategies that have worked for us. Although much of what is recommended may not be new, the hope is that this article might provide a fresh way to understand some of the factors that contribute to the use of restraint, in addition to providing some suggestions to proactively address those factors.