Flowering time responses to warming drive reproductive fitness in a changing Arctic.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: The Arctic is warming at an alarming rate, leading to earlier spring conditions and plant phenology. It is often unclear to what degree changes in reproductive fitness (flower, fruit, seed production) are a direct response to warming versus an indirect response through shifting phenology. This study aims to quantify the relative importance of these direct and indirect pathways and project the net effects of warming on plant phenology and reproductive fitness under current and future climate scenarios. METHODS: We used two long-term datasets on twelve tundra species in the Canadian Arctic as part of the International Tundra Experiment (ITEX). Phenology and reproductive fitness were recorded annually on tagged individual plants at both Daring Lake, Northwest Territories (64.87, -111.58) and Alexandra Fiord, Nunavut (78.83, -75.80). Plant species encompass a wide taxonomic diversity across a range of plant functional types with circumpolar/boreal distributions. We use Hierarchical Bayesian Structural Equation models to compare the direct and indirect effects of climate warming on phenology and reproductive fitness across species, sites and years. KEY RESULTS: We find that warming, both experimental and ambient, drives earlier flowering across species, which leads to higher numbers of flowers and fruits produced, reflecting directional phenotypic selection for earlier flowering phenology. Furthermore, this indirect effect of climate warming mediated through phenology was generally ~2-3x stronger than the direct effect of climate on reproductive fitness. Under future climate predictions, individual plants showed a ~2 to 4.5-fold increase in their reproductive fitness (flower counts) with advanced flowering phenology. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that, on average, the benefits of early flowering, such as increased development time and subsequent enhanced reproductive fitness, may outweigh its risks. Overall, this work provides important insights into population-level consequences of phenological shifts in a warming Arctic over multi-decadal time scales.

Greater temperature sensitivity of plant phenology at colder sites: implications for convergence across northern latitudes.

Warmer temperatures are accelerating the phenology of organisms around the world. Temperature sensitivity of phenology might be greater in colder, higher latitude sites than in warmer regions, in part because small changes in temperature constitute greater relative changes in thermal balance at colder sites. To test this hypothesis, we examined up to 20 years of phenology data for 47 tundra plant species at 18 high-latitude sites along a climatic gradient. Across all species, the timing of leaf emergence and flowering was more sensitive to a given increase in summer temperature at colder than warmer high-latitude locations. A similar pattern was seen over time for the flowering phenology of a widespread species, Cassiope tetragona. These are among the first results highlighting differential phenological responses of plants across a climatic gradient and suggest the possibility of convergence in flowering times and therefore an increase in gene flow across latitudes as the climate warms.

Tundra Type Drives Distinct Trajectories of Functional and Taxonomic Composition of Arctic Fungal Communities in Response to Climate Change - Results From Long-Term Experimental Summer Warming and Increased Snow Depth.

The arctic tundra is undergoing climate-driven changes and there are serious concerns related to the future of arctic biodiversity and altered ecological processes under possible climate change scenarios. Arctic land surface temperatures and precipitation are predicted to increase further, likely causing major transformation in terrestrial ecosystems. As a response to increasing temperatures, shifts in vegetation and soil fungal communities have already been observed. Little is known, however, how long-term experimental warming coupled with increased snow depth influence the trajectories of soil fungal communities in different tundra types. We compared edaphic variables and fungal community composition in experimental plots simulating the expected increase in summer warming and winter snow depth, based on DNA metabarcoding data. Fungal communities in the sampled dry and moist acidic tundra communities differed greatly, with tundra type explaining ca. one-third of compositional variation. Furthermore, dry and moist tundra appear to have different trajectories in response to climate change. Specifically, while both warming and increased snow depth had significant effects on fungal community composition and edaphic variables in dry tundra, the effect of increased snow was greater. However, in moist tundra, fungal communities mainly were affected by summer warming, while increased snow depth had a smaller effect and only on some functional groups. In dry tundra, microorganisms generally are limited by moisture in the summer and extremely low temperatures in winter, which is in agreement with the stronger effect of increased snow depth relative to warming. On the contrary, moist tundra soils generally are saturated with water, remain cold year-round and show relatively small seasonal fluctuations in temperature. The greater observed effect of warming on fungi in moist tundra may be explained by the narrower temperature optimum compared to those in dry tundra.

NDVI Changes Show Warming Increases the Length of the Green Season at Tundra Communities in Northern Alaska: A Fine-Scale Analysis.

A warming Arctic has been associated with increases in aboveground plant biomass, specifically shrubs, and changes in vegetation cover. However, the magnitude and direction of changes in NDVI have not been consistent across different tundra types. Here we examine the responsiveness of fine-scale NDVI values to experimental warming at eight sites in northern Alaska, United States. Warming in our eight sites ranged in duration from 2­23 seasons. Dry, wet and moist tundra communities were monitored for canopy surface temperatures and NDVI in ambient and experimentally-warmed plots at near-daily frequencies during the summer of 2017 to assess the impact of the warming treatment on the magnitude and timing of greening. Experimental warming increased canopy-level surface temperatures across all sites (+0.47 to +3.14˚C), with the strongest warming effect occurring during June and July and for the southernmost sites. Green-up was accelerated by warming at six sites, and autumn senescence was delayed at five sites. Warming increased the magnitude of peak NDVI values at five sites, decreased it at one site, and at two sites it did not change. Warming resulted in earlier peak NDVI at three sites and no significant change in the other sites. Shrub and graminoid cover was positively correlated with the magnitude of peak NDVI (r=0.37 to 0.60) while cryptogam influence was mixed. The magnitude and timing of peak NDVI showed considerable variability across sites. Warming extended the duration of the summer green season at most sites due to accelerated greening in the spring and delayed senescence in the autumn. We show that in a warmer Arctic (as simulated by our experiment) the timing and total period of carbon gain may change. Our results suggest these changes are dependent on community composition and abundance of specific growth forms and therefore will likely impact net primary productivity and trophic interactions.