Identifying broken linkages coupling water availability and dryland urbanization for sustainability: The case of the Phoenix metropolitan region, USA.

One third of the world's largest cities are located in drylands, where much of future urbanization is projected to occur. This is paradoxical and unsustainable considering water scarcity in drylands, which is exacerbated by climate change. Thus, it is critical to better understand why and how dryland urbanization and water scarcity are decoupled so that sustainable measures can be designed. Focusing on the Phoenix Metropolitan Area (PMA) of the United States, we addressed the following questions: 1) What are the relative influences of water and economic factors on urbanization in recent decades? 2) Which linkages connecting water storage to urban development have been decoupled? and 3) How can water availability and development be better coupled to improve regional sustainability? We tested the relationships between economic factors, water availability, and urbanization, with Pearson Correlation Analysis and Structural Equation Modeling. We found that, from 1986 to 2019, urban population growth and urban land expansion in the PMA were driven by economic factors, and not influenced by fluctuations in water supply. We identified specific broken linkages among water storage, water deliveries, municipal water supply, and urbanization, which must be coupled to enforce water availability constraints on urban expansion in the context of climate change. Our study has important implications for dryland urban sustainability as urbanization on borrowed water is, by definition, unsustainable.

Influence of Landscape Patterns on Exposure to Lassa Fever Virus, Guinea.

Lassa fever virus (LASV) is the causative agent of Lassa fever, a disease endemic in West Africa. Exploring the relationships between environmental factors and LASV transmission across ecologically diverse regions can provide crucial information for the design of appropriate interventions and disease monitoring. We investigated LASV exposure in 2 ecologically diverse regions of Guinea. Our results showed that exposure to LASV was heterogenous between and within sites. LASV IgG seropositivity was 11.9% (95% CI 9.7%-14.5%) in a coastal study site in Basse-Guinée, but it was 59.6% (95% CI 55.5%-63.5%) in a forested study site located in Guinée Forestière. Seropositivity increased with age in the coastal site. We also found significant associations between exposure risk for LASV and landscape fragmentation in coastal and forested regions. Our study highlights the potential link between environmental change and LASV emergence and the urgent need for research on land management practices that reduce disease risks.

Land use change in rapidly developing economies-a case study on land use intensification and land fallowing in Kochi, Kerala, India.

The land use/land cover change is a local driver of environmental change having cascading impacts and implications at the global level, and therefore requires appreciable consideration when perceived from sustainability perspectives. Kerala, the southernmost state of India, has undergone a dramatic transition from a traditional agrarian economy to a modern thriving economy involving the irrational exploitation of natural resources, precisely, land and its components. The present study addresses how land is being changed along an urbanization gradient in the most agglomerative city in the state, Kochi, during the last one and half decades. High-resolution remote sensing data available from the Google Earth Pro pertaining to the four time periods, i.e., 2005, 2010, 2015, and 2020, representing urban, suburban, and rural areas, were analysed to estimate the changes in land use land cover. A semi-structured interview was conducted at the household level to identify the major drivers of land use change. The results indicated the presence of two major and divergent trends; the first one is the intensification of land use activities at the rate of 1.37% per annum, primarily driven by urbanization and infrastructure developments, and the second one is the fallowing and abandonment of land (at the rate of 0.21% per annum) driven by the increased cost of cultivation. The rates of change are more prominent in the rural areas while the urban grids are nearing saturation occupying nearly two-thirds of the area with urban features at the expense of greenery. Though the progression with respect to urbanization and infrastructure developments is expected, the fallowing and abandonment of land is unanticipated, raising serious questions in the developmental pathways to achieve Sustainable Development Goals in the State of Kerala.

Dynamics and future prediction of LULC on Pare River basin of Arunachal Pradesh using machine learning techniques.

Anthropogenic disturbances caused by increasing population densities are a significant concern as they accelerate climate change. Thus, regular monitoring of land use/land cover (LULC) is essential to mitigate these effects. Pare River basin of Arunachala Pradesh situated in the foothills of Eastern Himalayas was selected for this study. Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI data from 2000 (T1), 2015 (T2), and 2020 (T3) were used to prepare the LULC map. A support vector machine (SVM) classifier in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) environment was utilized for classification of LULC, while the TerrSet software environment was used for change analysis and projection using the CA-MC model. The SVM classifier produced overall all classification accuracies of 0.91, 0.85, and 0.91 with kappa values of 0.88, 0.82, and 0.89 for T1, T2, and T3, respectively. The CA-MC model, which combines Markov chain and hybrid cellular automata, was calibrated with various predictor variables, including natural, proximity, and demographic variables along with T1 and T2 LULC and validated using T3 LULC. The MLP was used for calibration, and an accuracy rate of above 0.70 was employed to generate transition potential maps (TPMs). The TPMs were used to project future LULC for 2030, 2040, and 2050. Validation analysis produced satisfactory results, with Kno, Klocation, Kquality, and Kstandard values of 0.96, 0.95, 0.95, and 0.93, respectively. Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) analysis showed an excellent area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.87. The findings of this study provide important insights to decision-makers and stakeholders in addressing the impacts of LULC changes.

Surface urban heat island in South Korea's new towns with different urban planning.

A new town is strategically built within a short period compared to naturally developed cities. It is considered an appropriate study area for analyzing the urban climate problems such as surface urban heat islands (SUHIs) that is differently generated according to urban planning and development. In this study, we suggest comprehensive method for determining and comparing changes in surface UHI distribution during 1989-2048 in two new towns with different urban planning. First, a substantial increase in built-up areas was observed from 1989 (< 5%) to 2018 (> 40%) in both new towns. However, SUHI phenomenon-increasing patterns were different of about 12.25% depending on urban planning and urban morphology. Results also showed the importance of vertical and horizontal structures which can have a great influence on SUHI intensity and accordingly, the difference in SUHI distribution between two new towns was confirmed. Moreover, without effective mitigation, the built-up area in both new towns is estimated to increase to approximately 60%, and the SUHI intensity in most areas to increase by 4 °C in 2048. In addition, the spread and intensification of the SUHI phenomenon are predicted to be greater due to the characteristics of the building structure and the active urban expansion. Thus, these results combined with architectural assessment models can improve the understanding of thermal environmental impacts of urbanization and provide directions for sustainable urban development and renovation.

The responses of river discharge and sediment load to historical land-use/land-cover change in the Mekong River Basin.

The large river basins throughout the world have undergone land-use/land-cover (LULC)-induced changes in river discharge and sediment load. Evaluating these changes is consequently important for efficient management of soil and water resources. In addition, these changes in the transboundary Mekong River Basin (Mekong RB) are not well-known. The present study aimed to investigate the impacts of LULC changes on river discharge and sediment load in the Mekong RB during the period 1980-2015 using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The SWAT model was calibrated and validated using measured data of daily river discharge and monthly sediment load. Analysis of LULC change showed a 2.35% decrease in forest land and a 2.29% increase in agricultural land during the period of 1997-2010. LULC changes in 1997 and 2010 caused increases in river discharge and sediment load by 0.24 to 0.32% and 1.78 to 2.86%, respectively in the study region. Moreover, the river discharge and sediment load of the Mekong River have significantly positive correlation with agricultural land and negative correlation with forest land. The findings give beneficial insights to implement appropriate strategies of water and soil conservation measures to adapt and mitigate the adverse impacts of LULC in the Mekong RB. Further study will consider the impact of future LULC changes and uncertainties associated with the LULC projections for future management of soil and water conservation in the study region.

Impact of land use/land cover dynamics on ecosystem service value-a case from Lake Malombe, Southern Malawi.

Lake Malombe ecosystem provides a vast range of services that are vital for the sustenance of the riparian communities. Understanding land use and land cover (LULC) dynamics, as well as the associated impacts on the multiple ecosystem service value (ESV), is extremely important in decision-making processes and effective implementation of an ecosystem-based management approach. This study analyzed the LULC dynamics from 1989 to 2019. The primary objective of the study was to assess its impact on ecosystem services (ES). The ESV was determined using LULC analysis and established global ESV coefficient. The LULC analysis showed a reduction in forest cover by 84.73% during the study period. Built-up, cultivated land, bare land, shrubs, and grassland increased considerably. Rapid population growth, climate change, government policy conflicts, and poverty were identified as the most important drivers of LULC dynamics. Based on ESVs estimations, the ES changes instigated by LULC dynamics in the study area result in an average loss of US$45.58 million during the study period. Within the same period, the lake fishery also recorded a net loss of US$8.63 million. The highest net loss of US$79.832 million was recorded from 1999 to 2019 due to increased loss of forest, a decrease in water bodies and marsh areas. The sensitivity analysis (CS) indicated that our estimates were relatively robust. This study findings provide a piece of empirical evidence that LULC dynamics in the Lake Malombe catchment have led to a significant loss of ESVs, with serious implications for the livelihoods of the local population.

Modelling Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) in response to climate change scenarios for the SAARC nations.

Agriculture and forestry are the two major land use classes providing sustenance to the human population. With the pace of development, these two land use classes continue to change over time. Land use change is a dynamic process under the influence of multiple drivers including climate change. Therefore, tracing the trajectory of the changes is challenging. The artificial neural network (ANN) has successfully been applied for tracing such a dynamic process to capture nonlinear responses. We test the application of the multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP-NN) to project the future Agriculture, Forestry and Other Land Use (AFOLU) for the year 2050 for the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (SAARC) nations which is a geopolitical union of Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Maldives, Pakistan and Sri Lanka. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) use much frequently the term 'AFOLU' in their policy documents. Hence, we restricted our land use classification scheme as AFOLU for assessing the influence of climate change scenarios of the IPCC fifth assessment report (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, RCP 6.0 and RCP 8.5). Agricultural land would increase in all the SAARC nations, with the highest increase in Pakistan and Maldives; moderate increase in Afghanistan, India and Nepal; and the least increase in Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka. The forestry land use will witness a decreasing trend under all scenarios in all of the SAARC nations with varying levels of changes. The study is expected to assist planners and policymakers to develop nations' specific strategy to proportionate land use classes to meet various needs on a sustainable basis.

Alarming groundwater depletion in the Delhi Metropolitan Region: a long-term assessment.

Groundwater in Delhi Metropolitan Region (DMR) is suffering from multiple catastrophes, viz., asymptotic increases in groundwater withdrawal, reduced recharge due to erratic rainfall, and variable soil type. In this study, we examined long-term trends in groundwater levels across the DMR from 1996 to 2018. Station level data collected by the Central Groundwater Board for 258 stations at the seasonal scale were visualized and interpreted using geospatial analysis. The spatial patterns of the trends in groundwater levels revealed increasing depths of groundwater levels, except the Yamuna River floodplains. The main cause for the decline is related to the rapid growth in population accompanied with high-density impervious urban land uses, leading to lower levels of recharge vs unlimited withdrawal of groundwater for daily needs. In addition, the local geology in the form of clayey soils in northwest DMR also contributed to the lower levels of recharge. The results of the analysis enabled us to establish the trend and delineate the zones of differential recharge. Furthermore, the level of contaminants were analyzed at the district level for fluorides and nitrates. The presence of fluoride contamination was mostly concentrated in the northwestern district, while the nitrate exceedance was more widespread. These findings will help in achieving the 6th Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) of United Nations by 2030 as well as goals identified in Delhi's master plan of 2041.

Spatiotemporal changes of carbon storage in forest carbon pools of Western Turkey: 1972-2016.

This study analyzes the impacts of spatiotemporal changes on C dynamics based on the various C pools and forest structure in western Turkey. The forest C dynamics were projected by forest inventory data between 1972 and 2016, and the spatial distribution of C storage was mapped by GIS. Total C storage increased from 1135.22 Gg in 1972 to 1816.60 Gg in 2016 with a net accumulation of 681.38 Gg. While the largest contribution to C pool was from soil organic carbon with 58.6% and 49.3% of the total C storage in 1972 and 1994, it was from living biomass with 54.0% and 57.7% in 2004 and 2016, respectively. The mean annual C sequestration was 1.57 Mg ha-1 year-1, including 1.49 Mg ha-1 year-1 in biomass and 0.08 Mg ha-1 year-1 in soil over four decades. The mixed cover type was the most significant contributor to biomass, soil, and total C storages. However, the hardwood cover type was the most significant contributor to C densities due to the higher growing stock. The mature development stages (35.6 Gg year-1), the fully covered areas (13.2 Gg year-1), and the older forests have played an essential role in C sequestration. The spatial distribution of C dynamics was heterogenic due to forest cover type, forest structure, and species composition. Monitoring spatiotemporal changes in forest ecosystems in terms of forest cover type, development stage, coverages, and age class distribution can provide opportunities in developing effective forest management policies based on the ecological sustainability of C pools and mitigating climate change effects.

Mapping LULC types in the Cerrado-Atlantic Forest ecotone region using a Landsat time series and object-based image approach: A case study of the Prata River Basin, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.

In the last 30 years, the growth of the agriculture and livestock industries in the Cerrado biome has caused severe changes in land use and land cover (LULC), and areas previously occupied by native vegetation are changing to agricultural monocultures (e.g., soybean or corn) and/or pastures. Thus, the objective of this study was to analyze the LULC changes for the years 1986, 1999, 2007, and 2016 based on Landsat time series and object-based image analysis (OBIA) for the Prata River Basin. Twelve LULC classes were mapped: riparian forest, cerrado, swampy grasslands, wetlands, semideciduous forest, pasture, agriculture, fallow agricultural land, barren land, eucalyptus, water bodies, and burnt area. The classifications presented results with an overall accuracy of more than 93% and a kappa coefficient of 0.92. In 2007, the pasture class had the highest increase in area (48.5%), with a total area of 118.32 km2 of Cerrado biome vegetation converted to pasture, and the classes banhado, riparian forest, swampy grasslands, and cerrado had the greatest reductions in area (41.58%, 29.67%, 25.44%, and 21.63%, respectively). More precisely, the wetlands class underwent the greatest decrease under the advancement of pasture in the studied period (- 36.2%). These changes are due to factors favorable to agropastoral practices, such as a flat relief and soil with good agricultural suitability. Graphical abstract.

Predicting Farmer Adoption of Water Conservation Practices Using a Norm-based Moral Obligation Model.

This study examines the social-psychological drivers of conservation practice adoption among farmers in Minnesota. Specifically, it applies a moral obligation model to understand farmer decision-making related to water resource management, focusing in particular on conservation tillage and drainage management. Data were collected through a self-administered mail survey of 1500 landowners in two subwatersheds of the Red River Basin: Wild Rice River and Middle Snake-Tamarac Rivers. Data were analyzed using structural equation modeling. Study results demonstrate that farmers' decisions to adopt conservation practices are influenced by personal norms and perceived ability to protect water resources. Further, beliefs about personal responsibility for water protection, and perceived ability to protect water resources activate personal norms of water protection. Collectivistic and biosphere-altruistic values serve as the basis for the activation of personal norms. Study findings suggest that a combination of behavioral intervention strategies that provide tailored information about local water resource problems, appeal to farmers' values, sense of responsibility and personal obligation, and enhance farmers' ability to use conservation practices may be effective in achieving higher levels of conservation practice adoption.

The role of protected areas in land use/land cover change and the carbon cycle in the conterminous United States.

Protected areas (PAs) cover about 22% of the conterminous United States. Understanding their role on historical land use and land cover change (LULCC) and on the carbon cycle is essential to provide guidance for environmental policies. In this study, we compiled historical LULCC and PAs data to explore these interactions within the terrestrial ecosystem model (TEM). We found that intensive LULCC occurred in the conterminous United States from 1700 to 2005. More than 3 million km2 of forest, grassland and shrublands were converted into agricultural lands, which caused 10,607 Tg C release from land ecosystems to atmosphere. PAs had experienced little LULCC as they were generally established in the 20th century after most of the agricultural expansion had occurred. PAs initially acted as a carbon source due to land use legacies, but their accumulated carbon budget switched to a carbon sink in the 1960s, sequestering an estimated 1,642 Tg C over 1700-2005, or 13.4% of carbon losses in non-PAs. We also find that PAs maintain larger carbon stocks and continue sequestering carbon in recent years (2001-2005), but at a lower rate due to increased heterotrophic respiration as well as lower productivity associated to aging ecosystems. It is essential to continue efforts to maintain resilient, biodiverse ecosystems and avoid large-scale disturbances that would release large amounts of carbon in PAs.

Analyzing the effects of urban expansion on land surface temperature patterns by landscape metrics: a case study of Isfahan city, Iran.

Urban expansion can cause extensive changes in land use and land cover (LULC), leading to changes in temperature conditions. Land surface temperature (LST) is one of the key parameters that should be considered in the study of urban temperature conditions. The purpose of this study was, therefore, to investigate the effects of changes in LULC due to the expansion of the city of Isfahan on LST using landscape metrics. To this aim, two Landsat 5 and Landsat 8 images, which had been acquired, respectively, on August 2, 1985, and July 4, 2015, were used. The support vector machine method was then used to classify the images. The results showed that Isfahan city had been encountered with an increase of impervious surfaces; in fact, this class covered 15% of the total area in 1985, while this value had been increased to 30% in 2015. Then LST zoning maps were created, indicating that the bare land and impervious surfaces categories were dominant in high temperature zones, while in the zones where water was present or NDVI was high, LST was low. Then, the landscape metrics in each of the LST zones were analyzed in relation to the LULC changes, showing that LULC changes due to urban expansion changed such landscape properties as the percentage of landscape, patch density, large patch index, and aggregation index. This information could be beneficial for urban planners to monitor and manage changes in the LULC patterns.

Defining the effects of urban expansion on land use/cover change: a case study in Kastamonu, Turkey.

In addition to the growing world population, continuous migration from rural areas to city centers leads to rapid population growth in urban centers, bringing with it a change in land use/cover in those areas. This change usually manifests itself as an increase in artificial surfaces and a decrease in agricultural areas and forestlands. However, agricultural areas and forests in the vicinity of city centers contain sensitive ecosystems that require careful monitoring. It is crucial that the impact of population growth in the city centers on these areas is determined. This study aims to determine the changes in the land cover in Kastamonu city center between 1999 and 2014. As part of the study, changes in the population of the city center, as well as in the use of urban spaces within the past 15 years, were investigated to determine how population growth affected land use/cover. Changes in land use/cover were assessed under 12 classes with the use of remote sensing methods on stand-type maps created by the aerial photos. According to the results of the study, a 519.5-ha agricultural area and a 86-ha forest area became artificial surfaces in 1999 and 2014.

Land use/land cover change and its impacts on protected areas in Mengla County, Xishuangbanna, Southwest China.

Land use/land cover change (LUCC) in tropical areas threatens biodiversity and protected area integrity and then affects global ecosystem functions and services. In this study, the spatiotemporal patterns and processes of LUCC in Mengla County, Xishuangbanna, which is located on the northern edge of tropical Asia, were examined using a modified post-classification change detection technique based on random forest classifiers and Landsat images acquired at a 5-year time interval (e.g., 1994, 1999, 2004, 2009, and 2014) from 1994 to 2014, with a special focus on protected areas and their surroundings. The overall accuracies of land use/land cover classification reached 90.13-97.90%, with kappa coefficients of 0.84-0.96. Massive but decelerating conversion from forests to artificial plantations has occurred in recent decades. From 1994 to 2014, the area of plantations increased by 1833.85 km2, whereas that of forests decreased by 1942.67 km2. The expanded areas of artificial plantations decreased from 158.41 km2 per year in 1994-1999 to 59.70 km2 per year in 2009-2014. More considerable transformation from forests to artificial plantations occurred in lowland areas with elevations below 1000 m and at the edges of National Nature Reserves, which observed a forest loss rate of greater than 40% between 1994 and 2014. This poses serious challenges for sustaining both protected areas and surrounding human communities and to solve the increasingly escalating human-elephant conflicts. The complex food, biodiversity, and land use nexus in this region remain to be untangled in future study.

Mapping regional patterns of large forest fires in Wildland-Urban Interface areas in Europe.

Over recent decades, Land Use and Cover Change (LUCC) trends in many regions of Europe have reconfigured the landscape structures around many urban areas. In these areas, the proximity to landscape elements with high forest fuels has increased the fire risk to people and property. These Wildland-Urban Interface areas (WUI) can be defined as landscapes where anthropogenic urban land use and forest fuel mass come into contact. Mapping their extent is needed to prioritize fire risk control and inform local forest fire risk management strategies. This study proposes a method to map the extent and spatial patterns of the European WUI areas at continental scale. Using the European map of WUI areas, the hypothesis is tested that the distance from the nearest WUI area is related to the forest fire probability. Statistical relationships between the distance from the nearest WUI area, and large forest fire incidents from satellite remote sensing were subsequently modelled by logistic regression analysis. The first European scale map of the WUI extent and locations is presented. Country-specific positive and negative relationships of large fires and the proximity to the nearest WUI area are found. A regional-scale analysis shows a strong influence of the WUI zones on large fires in parts of the Mediterranean regions. Results indicate that the probability of large burned surfaces increases with diminishing WUI distance in touristic regions like Sardinia, Provence-Alpes-Côte d'Azur, or in regions with a strong peri-urban component as Catalunya, Comunidad de Madrid, Comunidad Valenciana. For the above regions, probability curves of large burned surfaces show statistical relationships (ROC value > 0.5) inside a 5000 m buffer of the nearest WUI. Wise land management can provide a valuable ecosystem service of fire risk reduction that is currently not explicitly included in ecosystem service valuations. The results re-emphasise the importance of including this ecosystem service in landscape valuations to account for the significant landscape function of reducing the risk of catastrophic large fires.

Monitoring urban expansion and its effects on land use and land cover changes in Guangzhou city, China.

There are widespread concerns about urban sprawl in China. In response, modeling and assessing urban expansion and subsequent land use and land cover (LULC) changes have become important approaches to support decisions about appropriate development and land resource use. Guangzhou, a major metropolitan city in South China, has experienced rapid urbanization and great economic growth in the past few decades. This study applied a series of Landsat images to assess the urban expansion and subsequent LULC changes over 35 years, from 1979 to 2013. From start to end, urban expansion increased by 1512.24 km(2) with an annual growth rate of 11.25 %. There were four stages of urban growth: low rates from 1979 to 1990, increased rates from 1990 to 2001, high rates from 2001 to 2009, and steady increased rates from 2009 to 2013. There were also three different urban growth types in these different stages: edge-expansion growth, infilling growth, and spontaneous growth. Other land cover, such as cropland, forest, and mosaics of cropland and natural vegetation, were severely impacted as a result. To analyze these changes, we used landscape metrics to characterize the changes in the spatial patterns across the Guangzhou landscape and the impacts of urban growth on other types of land cover. The significant changes in LULC and urban expansion were highly correlated with economic development, population growth, technical progress, policy elements, and other similar indexes.

The study on the spatiotemporal changes in tradeoffs and synergies of ecosystem services and response to land use/land cover changes in the region around Taihu Lake.

Interactions among ecosystem services (ESs) involve tradeoffs and synergies. Quantitatively studying the trade-off and synergistic relationships between land use/land cover change (LULC) and ESs enables the precise identification of the quality status and driving factors of ESs within the region, which is crucial for rational resource allocation and environmental protection. In this study, the spatial and temporal change characteristics of the three ESs of carbon storage (CS), soil retention (SR) and habitat quality (HQ) are explored by using the InVEST model and GIS technology in the region around Taihu Lake, and the tradeoffs and synergies among the three are determined based on the difference comparison. The results indicate that: (1) The study area has a downward trajectory in CS and HQ from 1990 to 2020, while SR experiences some fluctuations. The spatial distribution of the three ESs exhibits high levels in the southwest and low levels in the northeast. (2) The most sensitive regions where tradeoffs and synergies are most pronounced occur primarily in the newly construction land regions and the southwestern mountainous and hilly areas. In newly construction land regions, there are often tradeoffs relationships observed between CS and SR, as well as between HQ and SR. Conversely, a predominantly negative synergy is mainly observed between CS and HQ. In the southwestern hilly terrain, due to changes in landscape patterns, HQ and SR exhibit higher levels of negative synergistic relationships. (3) LULC is a significant driver of spatial and temporal changes in ESs, as well as changes in tradeoffs and synergies in the study area, necessitating integrated research from economic, social and climate change perspectives.

A spatio-temporal analysis of the magnitude and trend of land use/land cover changes in Gilgel Gibe Catchment, Southwest Ethiopia.

Analyzing alterations in land use/land cover is crucial for water Scientists, planners, and decision-makers in watershed management. This examination enables the development of effective solutions to mitigate the adverse impacts resulting from such changes. The focus of this research was analyzing alterations in land use/land cover within the Gilgel Gibe Catchment in 1991 - 2021. LULC data of 1991-2021 were derived from multispectral Landsat images. Data were also gathered using field observations and key informant interview. Data of LULC classes (1991-2021) were generated utilizing supervised classification with maximum likelihood algorithm of ENVI 5.1 and ArcGIS 10.5. Change detection analysis and accuracy assessment were done where accuracy levels all the study periods were > 85 %, and the overall Kappa statistics of the periods were > 0.89. Built-up area and cultivated land of the catchment are increasing with increasing magnitude of change; whereas, while forest cover and grazing land of the catchment are shrinking with declining magnitudes of change, shrubland covers and water body are declining with increasing magnitude of change in the catchment. The net increase in degraded land is a reflection of the increasing degradation of natural resources in the catchment. Swift escalation of population and the subsequent raising demand for farmland and forest and shrub (e.g. fuel-wood and construction) products, decline yield, unemployment and lack of alternative income source, and open access and limited conservation of resources are the principal factors for the dramatic shrinkages of grazing, forest, water body and shrubland resources. Thus, concerned bodies should take rehabilitation measures to restore degraded lands, improve production and yield of farmland by increasing improved farm-inputs and irrigation, and create employment and alternative income sources for the youth, women and the poor so as to ensure sustainable rural livelihoods and to curb the impacts on forest, shrubland and other resources.