The predictive value of the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score for clinical outcomes in patients with acute kidney injury.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) score, the Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), and the Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA) score in predicting 28-day mortality in acute kidney injury (AKI) patients. METHODS: Data were extracted from the Beijing Acute Kidney Injury Trial (BAKIT). A total of 2954 patients with complete clinical data were included in this study. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to analyze and evaluate the predictive effects of the four scoring systems on the 28-day mortality risk of AKI patients and each subgroup. The best cutoff value was identified by the highest combined sensitivity and specificity using Youden's index. RESULTS: Among the four scoring systems, the area under the curve (AUC) of OASIS was the highest. The comparison of AUC values of different scoring systems showed that there were no significant differences among OASIS, APACHE II, and SAPS II, which were better than SOFA. Moreover, logistic analysis revealed that OASIS was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality in AKI patients. OASIS also had good predictive ability for the 28-day mortality of each subgroup of AKI patients. CONCLUSION: OASIS, APACHE II, and SAPS II all presented good discrimination and calibration in predicting the 28-day mortality risk of AKI patients. OASIS, APACHE II, and SAPS II had better predictive accuracy than SOFA, but due to the complexity of APACHE II and SAPS II calculations, OASIS is a good substitute. TRIAL REGISTRATION: This study was registered at www.chictr.org.cn (registration number Chi CTR-ONC-11001875). Registered on 14 December 2011.

[Clinical value of Oxford acute severity of illness score in identifying quick sequential organ failure assessment-negative patients with sepsis].

Objective: The quick sequential organ failure assessment (qSOFA) score has been proposed as part of diagnostic criteria for sepsis, but there might be an underestimation of the incidence of qSOFA-negative sepsis according to a few recent studies. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the value of Oxford acute severity of illness score (OASIS) in identifying qSOFA-negative (qSOFA<2) patients with sepsis. Methods: Sepsis patients with negative qSOFA scores were selected from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care Ⅲ(MIMIC-Ⅲ), a database comprising de-identified health-related data from patients staying in the critical care units of Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center between 2001 and 2012. Non-infectious patients with both qSOFA and SOFA scores less than 2 were enrolled as controls. Propensity score matching (PSM) analysis was used to reduce the effects of selection bias. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis was performed to assess the value of OASIS in discriminating qSOFA-negative patients with sepsis and to determine its optimal cut-off. Associations of OASIS with 28-day mortality after intensive care unit (ICU) admission, ICU mortality, and hospital mortality were further examined using multivariate Cox regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis. Results: 2 273 qSOFA-negative patients with sepsis and 3 342 non-sepsis controls were included finally with a PSM cohort consisted of 1 677 sepsis patients and 1 677 controls. Results of ROC analysis showed that the area under ROC curve was 0.753 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.741-0.765] and the optimal OASIS threshold according to the Youden index was 26.5 and yielded a 67.2% sensitivity and 70.8% specificity. Multivariate regression analysis indicated that OASIS>26 was an independent risk factor for 28-day mortality (hazard ratio 2.80, 95% CI 2.15-3.65, P<0.01), ICU mortality (odds ratio 4.69, 95% CI 2.60-8.49, P<0.01), and hospital mortality (odds ratio 4.48, 95% CI 3.13-6.42, P<0.01). Analysis of the PSM cohort presented consistent results. Conclusions: OASIS had a good discriminative value to differentiate qSOFA-negative patients with sepsis from those without sepsis.

Predictive value of the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score in acute stroke patients with stroke-associated pneumonia.

Background: Stroke-associated pneumonia (SAP) is associated with a poor prognosis and a high mortality rate in stroke patients. However, the accuracy of early prediction of SAP is insufficient, and there is a lack of effective prognostic evaluation methods. Therefore, in this study, we investigated the predictive value of the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) in SAP to provide a potential reference index for the incidence and prognosis of SAP. Methods: We recruited a total of 280 patients with acute ischemic stroke who had been diagnosed and treated in the Zhumadian Central Hospital between January 2021 and January 2023. These patients were divided into an SAP group (86 cases) and a non-SAP group (194 cases) according to SAP diagnostic criteria by expert consensus on the diagnosis and treatment of SAP. We collated general and clinical data from all patients, including the survival of SAP patients during the follow-up period. Multivariate logistic regression was used to analyze the risk factors for SAP. Kaplan-Meier and multivariate COX regression analyses were used to investigate the relationship between OASIS and the prognosis of SAP, and a receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn to analyze the predictive value of OASIS for SAP. Results: Our analyses identified body temperature, C-reactive protein, procalcitonin, OASIS, and a prolonged length of intensive care unit (ICU) stay as the main risk factors for SAP (all Ps < 0.05). Advanced age and an elevated OASIS were identified as the main risk factors for death in SAP patients (all Ps < 0.05). The risk of death in patients with OASIS of 31-42 points was significantly higher than that in patients with OASIS of 12-20 points (HR = 5.588, 95% CI = 1.531-20.401, P = 0.009). ROC curve analysis further showed that OASIS had a high predictive value for morbidity and the incidence of death in SAP patients. Conclusion: OASIS can effectively predict the onset and death of SAP patients and provides a potential reference index for early diagnosis and the prediction of prognosis in patients with SAP. Our findings should be considered in clinical practice.

Urine output for predicting in-hospital mortality of intensive care patients with cardiogenic shock.

Background: The role of urine output (UO) in the first 24 h of admission in the clinical management of cardiogenic shock (CS) patients has not been elucidated. Methods: This study retrospectively analyzed intensive care CS patients in the MIMIC-IV database. Binomial logistic regression analysis was conducted to evaluate whether UO was an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in CS patients. The performance of UO in predicting mortality was evaluated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve and compared with the Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS). The clinical net benefit of UO in predicting mortality was determined using the decision curve analysis (DCA). Survival analysis was performed with Kaplan-Meier curves. Results: After adjusting for confounding factors including diuretic use and acute kidney injury (AKI), UO remained an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in CS patients. The areas under the ROC curves (AUCs) of UO for predicting in-hospital mortality were 0.712 (UO, ml/day) and 0.701 (UO, ml/kg/h), which were comparable to OASIS (AUC = 0.695). In terms of clinical net benefit, UO was comparable to OASIS, with different degrees of benefit at different threshold probabilities. Survival analysis showed that the risk of in-hospital death in the low-UO (≤857 ml/day) group was 3.0143 times that of the high-UO (>857 ml/day) group. Conclusions: UO in the first 24 h of admission is an independent risk factor for in-hospital mortality in intensive care CS patients and has moderate predictive value in predicting in-hospital mortality.

[Comparison of four scoring systems for predicting ICU mortality in patients with sepsis].

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the value of Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Simplified Acute Physiology Score Ⅱ (SAPS-Ⅱ), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS) and Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS) scoring systems for predicting ICU mortality in patients with sepsis. METHODS: We collected the data of a total of 2470 cases of sepsis recorded in the MIMIC-III database from 2001 to 2012 and retrieved the scores of SOFA, SAPS-Ⅱ, OASIS and LODS of the patients within the first day of ICU admission. We compared with the score between the survivors and the non-survivors and analyzed the differences in the area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the 4 scoring systems. Binomial logistic regression was performed to compare the predictive value of the 4 scoring systems for ICU mortality of the patients. RESULTS: In the 2470 patients with sepsis, 1966 (79.6%) survived and 504 (20.4%) died in the ICU. Compared with the survivors, the non-survivors had a significantly older mean age, higher proportion of patients receiving mechanical ventilation, and higher initial lactate level, creatinine, urea nitrogen, SOFA score, SAPS-Ⅱ score, OASIS score and LODS score (P < 0.05) but with significantly lower body weight and platelet counts (P < 0.05). The AUCs of the SOFA score, SAPS-Ⅱ score, OASIS score, and LODS score were 0.729 (P < 0.001), 0.768 (P < 0.001), 0.757 (P < 0.001), and 0.739 (P < 0.001), respectively. The AUC of SAPS-Ⅱ score was significantly higher than those of SOFA score (Z=3.679, P < 0.001) and LODS score (Z=3.698, P < 0.001) but was comparable with that of OASIS score (Z=1.102, P=0.271); the AUC of OASIS score was significantly higher than that of LODS score (Z=2.172, P=0.030) and comparable with that of SOFA score (Z=1.709, P=0.088). For predicting ICU mortality in patients without septic shock, the AUC of SAPS-Ⅱ score was 0.769 (0.743-0.793), the highest among the 4 scoring systems; in patients with septic shock, the AUCs SAPS-Ⅱ score and OASIS score, 0.768 (0.745-0.791) and 0.762 (0.738-0.785), respectively, were significantly higher than those of the other two scoring systems. Binomial logistic regression showed the corrected SOFA, SAPS-Ⅱ, and OASIS scores, but not LODS scores, were significantly correlated with ICU mortality in patients with sepsis, and their ORs were 1.08 (95% CI: 1.03-1.14, P=0.001), 1.04 (95% CI: 1.02-1.05, P < 0.001), 1.04 (95% CI: 1.01-1.06, P=0.001), 0.96 (95% CI: 0.89-1.04, P=0.350), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The scores of SOFA, SAPS-Ⅱ, OASIS, and LODS can predict ICU mortality in patients with sepsis, but SAPS-Ⅱ and OASIS scores have better predictive value than SOFA and LODS scores.