Prediction of probability of rubella based on eye outcomes (PORBEO Nomogram)-a cross-sectional sentinel surveillance of 1134 infants.

INTRODUCTION: Rubella is an important infectious, vaccine-preventable etiology of congenital defects. The aim of the study was to develop a prediction nomogram to assess the probability of an infant being at risk for congenital rubella based on demographics and ophthalmological findings. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional sentinel surveillance study conducted at 5 centers spanning pan-India and involved 1134 infants. The diagnosis of rubella was made using standard guidelines. For the construction of the prediction model, laboratory-confirmed cases were grouped as "at-risk" (AR) infants and the discarded cases into "not at risk" (NAR) infants. Univariate analysis (p value cut-off < 0.05) followed by multivariate binary logistic regression model development was performed. RESULTS: The average (median) age of the suspected CRS infants was 3 (IQR 1-6) months, and the average (mean) age of their mothers was 25.8 ± 4.1 years. Out of the total infants, 81 (7.3%) died, 975 (88%) were alive, and 55 (5.0%) were lost to follow-up. The final model showed that the odds of cataract, retinopathy, glaucoma, microcornea, and age of the infant at presentation were 3.1 (2.2-4.3), 4.9(2.3-10.4), 2.7(1.1-5.9), 2.3(1.1-4.7), and 1.1 (1-1.1), respectively, for the AR infant as compared to NAR infant. AUC of final model was 0.68 (95% CI Delong, 0.64-0.72). Bootstrapping for calibration of the model showed satisfactory results. Nomogram, along with a web version, was developed. CONCLUSION: The developed nomogram would have a wide community-based utilization and will help in prioritizing attention to high-risk children, thereby avoiding loss to follow-up.

The importance of fundus eye testing in rubella-induced deafness.

OBJECTIVE: The purpose of this study was to establish a new approach to improve detection of deafness due to rubella. METHODS: Colombian institutes for the deaf were visited by a medical team to perform in all enrolled individuals an ophthalmological examination with emphasis in fundus eye by a retina specialist. In cases where ocular alterations compatible with CRS were found, a medical interview by a clinical geneticist analyzing pre-and postnatal history and a thorough medical examination was done. RESULTS: A total of 1383 deaf institutionalized individuals were evaluated in 9 Colombian cities in the period of 2005 to 2006, finding a total of 463 positive cases for salt-and-pepper retinopathy (33.5%), in which rubella could be the etiology of deafness. Medellin, Cartagena, Bucaramanga and Barranquilla were the cities with the highest percentage of Congenital rubella, corresponding to 22.8% of analyzed population. The analysis performed on cases in which reliable prenatal history was obtained in a second appointment (n=88) showed association between positive viral symptoms during pregnancy and salt-and-pepper retinopathy in 62.5% of cases, while both (retinopathy and viral symptoms) were absent in 29.5% of cases; showing a correlation in 92% of cases. CONCLUSIONS: The frequency of deafness by rubella obtained by this study is significantly high compared with previous Colombian studies and with international reports. It was possible to correlate the antecedent of symptoms during pregnancy with the presence of salt-and-pepper retinopathy in this deaf population when reliable prenatal history was available, therefore eye testing with emphasis in fundus examination is a good indicator of rubella induced deafness. We propose a new approach in the search of deafness causes, based on a thorough ophthalmologic examination in all deaf people.