Excess Mortality and Loss of Life Expectancy After Myocardial Infarction: A Registry-Based Matched Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The effect of myocardial infarction (MI) on life expectancy is difficult to study because the prevalence of MI hinders direct comparison with the life expectancy of the general population. We sought to assess this in relation to age, sex, and left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) by comparing individuals with MI with matched comparators without previous MI. METHODS: We included patients with a first MI between 1991 and 2022 from the nationwide SWEDEHEART registry (Swedish Web-System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence-Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies), each matched with up to 5 comparators on age, sex, and region of residence. Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate excess mortality risk and mean loss of life expectancy (LOLE) depending on index year, age, sex, and LVEF, and adjusted for differences in characteristics. RESULTS: A total of 335 748 cases were matched to 1 625 396 comparators. A higher LOLE was observed in younger individuals, women, and those with reduced LVEF (<50%). In 2022, the unadjusted and adjusted mean LOLE spanned from 11.1 and 9.5 years in 50-year-old women with reduced LVEF to 5 and 3.7 months in 80-year-old men with preserved LVEF. Between 1992 and 2022, the adjusted mean LOLE decreased by 36% to 55%: from 4.4 to 2.0 years and from 3.3 to 1.9 years in 50-year-old women and men, respectively, and from 1.7 to 1.0 years and from 1.4 to 0.9 years in 80-year-old women and men, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: LOLE is higher in younger individuals, women, and those with reduced LVEF, but is attenuated when adjusting for comorbidities and risk factors. Advances in MI treatment during the past 30 years have almost halved LOLE, with no clear sign of leveling off to a plateau.

Helicobacter pylori Treatment and Gastric Cancer Risk After Endoscopic Resection of Dysplasia: A Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The study investigated the association between Helicobacter pylori treatment and the risk of gastric cancer after endoscopic resection of gastric dysplasia. METHODS: Patients who received endoscopic resection for gastric dysplasia between 2010 and 2020 from Korean nationwide insurance data were included. We verified the occurrence of new-onset gastric cancer and metachronous gastric neoplasm, which encompasses both cancer and dysplasia, >1 year after the index endoscopic resection. Newly diagnosed gastric cancer ≥3 years and ≥5 years was regarded as late-onset gastric cancer. A multivariable Cox regression model with H pylori treatment status as a time-dependent covariate was used to determine the risk of gastric cancer and metachronous gastric neoplasms. RESULTS: Gastric dysplasia in 69,722 patients was treated with endoscopy, and 49.5% were administered H pylori therapy. During the median 5.6 years of follow-up, gastric cancer developed in 2406 patients and metachronous gastric neoplasms developed in 3342 patients. Receiving H pylori therapy was closely related to lower gastric cancer risk (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 0.88; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80-0.96). H pylori treatment also significantly decreased metachronous gastric neoplasm development (aHR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70-0.82). Furthermore, H pylori therapy showed a prominent protective effect for late-onset gastric cancer development at ≥3 years (aHR, 0.84; 95% CI, 0.75-0.94) and ≥5 years (aHR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.68-0.95). CONCLUSIONS: In this nationwide cohort, H pylori therapy after endoscopic resection of gastric dysplasia was associated with a reduced risk of gastric cancer and metachronous gastric neoplasm occurrence.

No association between long-chain n-3 fatty acid intake during pregnancy and risk of type 1 diabetes in offspring in two large Scandinavian pregnancy cohorts.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study was to investigate whether higher dietary intake of marine n-3 fatty acids during pregnancy is associated with a lower risk of type 1 diabetes in children. METHODS: The Danish National Birth Cohort (DNBC) and the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa) together include 153,843 mother-child pairs with prospectively collected data on eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) intake during pregnancy from validated food frequency questionnaires. Type 1 diabetes diagnosis in children (n=634) was ascertained from national diabetes registries. RESULTS: There was no association between the sum of EPA and DHA intake during pregnancy and risk of type 1 diabetes in offspring (pooled HR per g/day of intake: 1.00, 95% CI 0.88, 1.14), with consistent results for both the MoBa and the DNBC. Robustness analyses gave very similar results. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Initiation of a trial of EPA and DHA during pregnancy to prevent type 1 diabetes in offspring should not be prioritised.

Severe Infection and Risk of Cardiovascular Disease: A Multicohort Study.

BACKGROUND: The excess risk of cardiovascular disease associated with a wide array of infectious diseases is unknown. We quantified the short- and long-term risk of major cardiovascular events in people with severe infection and estimated the population-attributable fraction. METHODS: We analyzed data from 331 683 UK Biobank participants without cardiovascular disease at baseline (2006-2010) and replicated our main findings in an independent population from 3 prospective cohort studies comprising 271 329 community-dwelling participants from Finland (baseline 1986-2005). Cardiovascular risk factors were measured at baseline. We diagnosed infectious diseases (the exposure) and incident major cardiovascular events after infections, defined as myocardial infarction, cardiac death, or fatal or nonfatal stroke (the outcome) from linkage of participants to hospital and death registers. We computed adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for infectious diseases as short- and long-term risk factors for incident major cardiovascular events. We also calculated population-attributable fractions for long-term risk. RESULTS: In the UK Biobank (mean follow-up, 11.6 years), 54 434 participants were hospitalized for an infection, and 11 649 had an incident major cardiovascular event at follow-up. Relative to participants with no record of infectious disease, those who were hospitalized experienced increased risk of major cardiovascular events, largely irrespective of the type of infection. This association was strongest during the first month after infection (HR, 7.87 [95% CI, 6.36-9.73]), but remained elevated during the entire follow-up (HR, 1.47 [95% CI, 1.40-1.54]). The findings were similar in the replication cohort (HR, 7.64 [95% CI, 5.82-10.03] during the first month; HR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.34-1.48] during mean follow-up of 19.2 years). After controlling for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, the population-attributable fraction for severe infections and major cardiovascular events was 4.4% in the UK Biobank and 6.1% in the replication cohort. CONCLUSIONS: Infections severe enough to require hospital treatment were associated with increased risks for major cardiovascular disease events immediately after hospitalization. A small excess risk was also observed in the long-term, but residual confounding cannot be excluded.

Final Study Report of Andexanet Alfa for Major Bleeding With Factor Xa Inhibitors.

BACKGROUND: Andexanet alfa is a modified recombinant inactive factor Xa (FXa) designed to reverse FXa inhibitors. ANNEXA-4 (Andexanet Alfa, a Novel Antidote to the Anticoagulation Effects of Factor Xa Inhibitors) was a multicenter, prospective, phase-3b/4, single-group cohort study that evaluated andexanet alfa in patients with acute major bleeding. The results of the final analyses are presented. METHODS: Patients with acute major bleeding within 18 hours of FXa inhibitor administration were enrolled. Co-primary end points were anti-FXa activity change from baseline during andexanet alfa treatment and excellent or good hemostatic efficacy, defined by a scale used in previous reversal studies, at 12 hours. The efficacy population included patients with baseline anti-FXa activity levels above predefined thresholds (≥75 ng/mL for apixaban and rivaroxaban, ≥40 ng/mL for edoxaban, and ≥0.25 IU/mL for enoxaparin; reported in the same units used for calibrators) who were adjudicated as meeting major bleeding criteria (modified International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis definition). The safety population included all patients. Major bleeding criteria, hemostatic efficacy, thrombotic events (stratified by occurring before or after restart of either prophylactic [ie, a lower dose, for prevention rather than treatment] or full-dose oral anticoagulation), and deaths were assessed by an independent adjudication committee. Median endogenous thrombin potential at baseline and across the follow-up period was a secondary outcome. RESULTS: There were 479 patients enrolled (mean age, 78 years; 54% male; 86% White); 81% were anticoagulated for atrial fibrillation, and the median time was 11.4 hours since last dose, with 245 (51%) on apixaban, 176 (37%) on rivaroxaban, 36 (8%) on edoxaban, and 22 (5%) on enoxaparin. Bleeding was predominantly intracranial (n=331 [69%]) or gastrointestinal (n=109 [23%]). In evaluable apixaban patients (n=172), median anti-FXa activity decreased from 146.9 ng/mL to 10.0 ng/mL (reduction, 93% [95% CI, 94-93]); in rivaroxaban patients (n=132), it decreased from 214.6 ng/mL to 10.8 ng/mL (94% [95% CI, 95-93]); in edoxaban patients (n=28), it decreased from 121.1 ng/mL to 24.4 ng/mL (71% [95% CI, 82-65); and in enoxaparin patients (n=17), it decreased from 0.48 IU/mL to 0.11 IU/mL (75% [95% CI, 79-67]). Excellent or good hemostasis occurred in 274 of 342 evaluable patients (80% [95% CI, 75-84]). In the safety population, thrombotic events occurred in 50 (10%) patients; in 16 patients, these occurred during treatment with prophylactic anticoagulation that began after the bleeding event. No thrombotic episodes occurred after oral anticoagulation restart. Specific to certain populations, reduction of anti-FXa activity from baseline to nadir significantly predicted hemostatic efficacy in patients with intracranial hemorrhage (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve, 0.62 [95% CI, 0.54-0.70]) and correlated with lower mortality in patients <75 years of age (adjusted P=0.022; unadjusted P=0.003). Median endogenous thrombin potential was within the normal range by the end of andexanet alfa bolus through 24 hours for all FXa inhibitors. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with major bleeding associated with the use of FXa inhibitors, treatment with andexanet alfa reduced anti-FXa activity and was associated with good or excellent hemostatic efficacy in 80% of patients. REGISTRATION: URL: https://www. CLINICALTRIALS: gov; Unique identifier: NCT02329327.

Stages of Valvular Heart Disease Among Older Adults in the Community: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study.

BACKGROUND: Limited data exist on American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association valvular heart disease (VHD) stage prevalence, progression, and association with incident cardiovascular diseases in late life. METHODS: Participants in the ARIC study (Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities), a prospective community-based cohort study, underwent protocol echocardiography at ARIC visits 5 (2011-2013) and 7 (2018-2019), and their aortic stenosis, aortic regurgitation, mitral stenosis, and mitral regurgitation stage were defined according to American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association guidelines. The overall VHD stage prevalence at visit 5 was measured. The associations between VHD stages and incident adjudicated death, heart failure, coronary heart disease, stroke, and atrial fibrillation were assessed with Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for age, sex, race, hypertension, diabetes, prior myocardial infarction, heart failure, body mass index, study center, systolic blood pressure, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and low-density lipoprotein at visit 5. Longitudinal changes in VHD stage prevalence over ≈6 years were estimated with inverse probability of attrition weights to account for participant attrition. RESULTS: Among 6118 ARIC participants, the mean±SD age was 76±5 years, 42% were male, and 22% reported Black race. Stage A VHD was present in 39%, stage B in 17%, and stage C/D in 1.1%;, 0.7% had previously undergone valve replacement or repair. A graded association was observed between stage A, B, and C/D VHD and risk of all-cause mortality, incident heart failure, incident atrial fibrillation, and incident coronary heart disease, but not incident stroke. Similar findings were observed for stages of each valvular lesion individually. During the 6.6 years (interquartile range, 6.1-7.0 years) between visits 5 and 7 (mean age, 81±4 years), the prevalence of freedom from VHD stage decreased from 43% to 24%, whereas the prevalence of stage C/D VHD increased from 1% to 7%. CONCLUSIONS: Subclinical VHD is common in older adults, with 39% at risk (stage A) and 17% with progressive VHD (stage B), and is independently associated with risk of incident cardiovascular events. VHD stages progress over 6 years in late life, with a several-fold increase in prevalence of severe VHD (stage C/D), highlighting the public health importance of interventions to mitigate VHD progression.

Low-Density Lipoprotein Cholesterol Is Predominantly Associated With Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Disease Events in Patients With Evidence of Coronary Atherosclerosis: The Western Denmark Heart Registry.

BACKGROUND: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is an important causal risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD). However, a sizable proportion of middle-aged individuals with elevated LDL-C level have not developed coronary atherosclerosis as assessed by coronary artery calcification (CAC). Whether presence of CAC modifies the association of LDL-C with ASCVD risk is unknown. We evaluated the association of LDL-C with future ASCVD events in patients with and without CAC. METHODS: The study included 23 132 consecutive symptomatic patients evaluated for coronary artery disease using coronary computed tomography angiography (CTA) from the Western Denmark Heart Registry, a seminational, multicenter-based registry with longitudinal registration of patient and procedure data. We assessed the association of LDL-C level obtained before CTA with ASCVD (myocardial infarction and ischemic stroke) events occurring during follow-up stratified by CAC>0 versus CAC=0 using Cox regression models adjusted for baseline characteristics. Outcomes were identified through linkage among national registries covering all hospitals in Denmark. We replicated our results in the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute-funded Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 4.3 years, 552 patients experienced a first ASCVD event. In the overall population, LDL-C (per 38.7 mg/dL increase) was associated with ASCVD events occurring during follow-up (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR], 1.14 [95% CI, 1.04-1.24]). When stratified by the presence or absence of baseline CAC, LDL-C was only associated with ASCVD in the 10 792/23 132 patients (47%) with CAC>0 (aHR, 1.18 [95% CI, 1.06-1.31]); no association was observed among the 12 340/23 132 patients (53%) with CAC=0 (aHR, 1.02 [95% CI, 0.87-1.18]). Similarly, a very high LDL-C level (>193 mg/dL) versus LDL-C <116 mg/dL was associated with ASCVD in patients with CAC>0 (aHR, 2.42 [95% CI, 1.59-3.67]) but not in those without CAC (aHR, 0.92 [0.48-1.79]). In patients with CAC=0, diabetes, current smoking, and low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were associated with future ASCVD events. The principal findings were replicated in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis. CONCLUSIONS: LDL-C appears to be almost exclusively associated with ASCVD events over ≈5 years of follow-up in middle-aged individuals with versus without evidence of coronary atherosclerosis. This information is valuable for individualized risk assessment among middle-aged people with or without coronary atherosclerosis.

Net Clinical Benefit of Oral Anticoagulation Among Frail Patients With Atrial Fibrillation: Nationwide Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Frail people with atrial fibrillation are often undertreated with oral anticoagulants (OACs), and evidence for the net clinical benefit (NCB) of OAC is sparse. We, therefore, examined the risk of thromboembolic events, major bleeding, and NCB of anticoagulation treatment. METHODS: This was a nationwide cohort study including frail patients aged with incident atrial fibrillation between 2013 and 2018. Patients were categorized according to OAC treatment exposure. One-year risks of thromboembolic events and major bleeding were ascertained where death was treated as a competing risk. The NCB of anticoagulation was assessed by a bivariate trade-off between thromboembolism and bleeding. RESULTS: We identified 36 223 frail patients with atrial fibrillation (median age, 79 years; 50.5% female), of whom 61.8% started OAC therapy, while 38.2% were untreated despite indication for stroke prevention. At 1 year, the risk of thromboembolic events was 2.1% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.3%) among patients not receiving OAC versus 1.5% (95% CI, 1.4%-1.7%) in patients with OAC. The bleeding risk was 3.2% (95% CI, 2.9%-3.5%) among patients without OAC versus 3.5% (95% CI, 3.2%-3.8%) among anticoagulated patients. The NCB was 0.70% (95% CI, 0.32%-1.08%), suggesting a benefit of OAC treatment; however, the NCB declined with age and increasing frailty and was lowest among patients >75 years of age or with high frailty level. CONCLUSIONS: Frail patients with atrial fibrillation are often untreated with OAC in routine clinical care despite an indication for stroke prevention. The NCB balancing thromboembolic events and major bleeding was in favor of anticoagulation but decreased with advancing age and increasing frailty.

Long-Term Outcomes in Patients With Spontaneous Cerebellar Hemorrhage: An International Cohort Study.

BACKGROUND: Spontaneous intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) in the cerebellum has a poor short-term prognosis, whereas data on the long-term case fatality and recurrent vascular events are sparse. Herewith, we aimed to assess the long-term case fatality and recurrence rate of vascular events after a first cerebellar ICH. METHODS: In this international cohort study, we included patients from 10 hospitals (the United States and Europe from 1997 to 2017) aged ≥18 years with a first spontaneous cerebellar ICH who were discharged alive. Data on long-term case fatality and recurrence of vascular events (recurrent ICH [supratentoria or infratentorial], ischemic stroke, myocardial infarction, or major vascular surgery) were collected for survival analysis and absolute event rate calculation. RESULTS: We included 405 patients with cerebellar ICH (mean age [SD], 72 [13] years, 49% female). The median survival time was 67 months (interquartile range, 23-100 months), with a cumulative survival rate of 34% at 10-year follow-up (median follow-up time per center ranged: 15-80 months). In the 347 patients with data on vascular events 92 events occurred in 78 patients, after initial cerebellar ICH: 31 (8.9%) patients had a recurrent ICH (absolute event rate, 1.8 per 100 patient-years [95% CI, 1.2-2.6]), 39 (11%) had an ischemic stroke (absolute event rate, 2.3 [95% CI, 1.6-3.2]), 13 (3.7%) had a myocardial infarction (absolute event rate, 0.8 [95% CI, 0.4-1.3]), and 5 (1.4%) underwent major vascular surgery (absolute event rate, 0.3 [95% CI, 0.1-0.7]). The median time to a first vascular event during follow-up was 27 months (interquartile range, 8.7-50 months), with a cumulative hazard of 47% at 10 years. CONCLUSIONS: The long-term prognosis of patients who survive a first spontaneous cerebellar ICH is poor and comparable to that of patients who survive a first supratentorial ICH. Further identification of patients at high risk of vascular events following the initial cerebellar ICH is needed. Including patients with cerebellar ICH in randomized controlled trials on secondary prevention of patients with ICH is warranted.

Head-to-head comparison of treatment sequences in advanced pancreatic cancer-Real-world data from the prospective German TPK clinical cohort study.

There are no clear guidelines regarding the optimal treatment sequence for advanced pancreatic cancer, as head-to-head phase III randomised trials are missing. We assess real-world effectiveness of three common sequential treatment strategies by emulating a hypothetical randomised trial. This analysis included 1551 patients with advanced pancreatic cancer from the prospective, clinical cohort study Tumour Registry Pancreatic Cancer receiving FOLFIRINOX (n = 613) or gemcitabine/nab-paclitaxel (GEMNAB; n = 938) as palliative first-line treatment. We used marginal structural modelling to compare overall survival (OS) and time to deterioration (TTD) of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) between three common first- to second-line treatment sequences, adjusting for time-varying potential confounding. The sequences were: FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB, GEMNAB→FOLFOX/OFF and GEMNAB→nanoliposomal irinotecan (NALIRI) + 5-fluorouracil. Outcome was also calculated stratified by patients' prognostic risk according to the Pancreatic Cancer Score. Median OS and TTD of HRQoL independent of risk were 10.7 [8.9, 11.9] and 6.4 [4.8, 7.7] months for FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB, 8.4 [7.4, 9.7] and 5.8 [4.6, 7.1] months for GEMNAB→FOLFOX/OFF and 8.9 [7.8, 10.4] and 4.6 [4.1, 6.1] months for GEMNAB→NALIRI+5-fluorouracil. Compared to FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB, OS and TTD were worse for poor-risk patients with GEMNAB→FOLFOX/OFF (OS: HR 2.09 [1.47, 2.98]; TTD: HR 1.97 [1.19, 3.27]) and those with GEMNAB→NALIRI+5-fluorouracil (OS: HR 1.35, [0.76, 2.39]; TTD: HR 2.62 [1.56, 4.42]). Brackets denote 95%-confidence intervals. The estimated real-world effectiveness of the three treatment sequences evaluated were largely comparable. Poor-risk patients might benefit from intensified treatment with FOLFIRINOX→GEMNAB in terms of clinical and patient-reported outcomes. Future randomised trials on sequential treatments in advanced pancreatic cancer are warranted.

Patient-reported outcomes in advanced NSCLC before and during the COVID-19 pandemic: Real-world data from the German prospective CRISP Registry (AIO-TRK-0315).

Patients with lung cancer under treatment have been associated with a high risk of COVID-19 infection and potentially worse outcome, but real-world data on patient-reported outcomes (PROs) are rare. We assess patients' characteristics and PROs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in an advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) cohort in Germany. Patients with locally advanced or metastatic NSCLC from the prospective, multicentre, observational CRISP Registry (NCT02622581) were categorised as pre-pandemic (March 2019 to Feb 2020, n = 1621) and pandemic (March 2020 to Feb 2021, n = 1317). From baseline to month 15, patients' health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was assessed by FACT-L, anxiety and depression by PHQ-4. Association of pandemic status with time to deterioration (TTD) in QoL scales adjusted for potential covariates was estimated using Cox modelling. PROs were documented for 1166 patients (72%) in the pre-pandemic, 979 (74%) in the pandemic group. Almost 60% of patients were male, median age was 66 years, comorbidities occurred in 85%. Regarding HRQoL, mean-change-from-baseline plots hardly differed between both samples. Approximately 15%-21% of patients reported anxiety, about 19%-27% signs of depression. For the pandemic group, TTD was slightly, but statistically significantly, worse for the physical well-being-FACT-G subscale (HR 1.15 [95%CI 1.02-1.30]) and the anxiety-GAD-2 subscale (HR 1.14 [95%CI 1.01-1.29]). These prospectively collected real-world data provide valuable insights into PROs before and during the COVID-19 pandemic in advanced NSCLC. For the patients, the pandemic seemed to be less of a burden than the disease itself, as there was a considerable proportion of patients with anxiety and depression in both groups.

Cohort Studies Versus Case-Control Studies on Night-Shift Work and Cancer Risk: The Importance of Exposure Assessment.

It is a general assumption that the prospective cohort study design is the gold standard approach and is superior to the case-control study design in epidemiology. However, there may be exceptions if the exposure is complex and requires collection of detailed information on many different aspects. Night-shift work, which impairs circadian rhythms, is an example of such a complex occupational exposure and may increase the risks of breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer. So far, for logistical reasons, investigators in cohort studies have assessed shift work rather crudely, lacking information on full occupational history and relevant shift-work metrics, and have presented mostly null findings. On the other hand, most cancer case-control studies have assessed the lifetime occupational histories of participants, including collection of detailed night-shift work metrics (e.g., type, duration, intensity), and tend to show positive associations. In this commentary, we debate why cohort studies with weak exposure assessment and other limitations might not necessarily be the preferred or less biased approach in assessing the carcinogenicity of night-shift work. Furthermore, we propose that risk-of-bias assessment and comparison of associations between studies with low versus high risks of bias be considered in future synthesis of the evidence.

Joint Modeling of Gene-Environment Correlations and Interactions Using Polygenic Risk Scores in Case-Control Studies.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) are rapidly emerging as a way to measure disease risk by aggregating multiple genetic variants. Understanding the interplay of PRS with environmental factors is critical for interpreting and applying PRS in a wide variety of settings. We develop an efficient method for simultaneously modeling gene-environment correlations and interactions using PRS in case control studies. We use a logistic-normal regression modeling framework to specify the disease risk and PRS distribution in the underlying population and propose joint inference across the two models using the retrospective likelihood of the case-control data. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate the flexibility of the method in trading-off bias and efficiency for the estimation of various model parameters compared to the standard logistic regression or a case-only analysis for gene-environment interactions, or a control-only analysis for gene-environment correlations. Finally using simulated case-control data sets within the UK Biobank study, we demonstrate the power of our method for its ability to recover results from the full prospective cohort for the detection of an interaction between long-term oral contraceptive use and PRS on the risk of breast cancer. This method is computationally efficient and implemented in a user-friendly R package.

How the Environmental influences on Child Health Outcome (ECHO) Cohort can spur discoveries in environmental epidemiology.

NIH's Environmental influences on Child Health Outcome (ECHO) program is an innovative, large, collaborative research initiative whose mission is to enhance the health of children for generations to come. The goal of the ECHO Cohort is to examine effects of a broad array of early environmental exposures on child health and development. It includes longitudinal data and biospecimens from over 100,000 children and family members from diverse settings across the U.S. ECHO investigators have published collaborative analyses showing associations of environmental exposures--primarily in the developmentally sensitive pre-, peri-, and post-natal periods--with preterm birth and childhood asthma, obesity, neurodevelopment, and positive health. Investigators have addressed health disparities, joint effects of environmental and social determinants, and effects of mixtures of chemicals. The ECHO Cohort is now entering its second 7-year cycle (2023-2030), which will add the preconception period to its current focus on prenatal through adolescence. Through a controlled access public use database, ECHO makes its deidentified data available to the general scientific community. ECHO Cohort data provide opportunities to fill major knowledge gaps in in environmental epidemiology, and to inform policies, practices, and programs to enhance child health.

The Revised Kyoto Criteria and Risk of Malignancy Among Patients With Intraductal Papillary Mucinous Neoplasms.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: The revised Kyoto guidelines have a new catalog of high-risk stigmata and worrisome features for the risk stratification of intraductal papillary mucinous neoplasms (IPMNs). We aimed to validate the stratification system in terms of short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma. METHODS: We included 3,336 patients diagnosed with IPMNs in 2000-2021 and examined short-term (≤ 6 months) and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis. We used the multivariable competing-risks proportional hazards regression model to calculate subdistribution hazard ratios for long-term incidence of pancreatic carcinoma with adjustment for potential confounders. RESULTS: In short-term analyses, pancreatic carcinomas were prevalent predominantly in IPMNs with high-risk stigmata (49% vs. 1.3% and 0.05% in IPMNs with worrisome features and no risk factors, respectively). In long-term analyses of worrisome features, the main pancreatic duct diameter of 5-9.9 mm, acute pancreatitis, and IPMN growth rate of 2.5 mm/year were associated with a high incidence with multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) of 3.46 (2.04-5.89), 5.65 (1.86-17.2), and 3.83 (2.14-6.86), respectively. An increasing number of worrisome features at baseline was associated with a higher prevalence and incidence of pancreatic carcinoma (Ptrend < .001). Patients with 1, 2, and 3-4 worrisome features had multivariable subdistribution hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for pancreatic cancer incidence of 1.43 (0.93-2.19), 2.17 (1.17-4.05), and 10.1 (4.20-24.5), respectively (vs. no positive feature). CONCLUSIONS: The revised Kyoto criteria stratify IPMN patients well in terms of the short- and long-term risks of pancreatic carcinoma diagnosis, potentially informing personalized patient management.

Comparing Time to Diagnosis and Treatment Between Younger and Older Adults With Colorectal Cancer: A Population-Based Study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Younger adults (aged <50 years) with colorectal cancer (CRC) may have prolonged delays to diagnosis and treatment that are associated with adverse outcomes. We compared delay intervals by age for patients with CRC in a large population. METHODS: This was a population-based study of adults diagnosed with CRC in Ontario, Canada, from 2003 to 2018. We measured the time between presentation and diagnosis (diagnostic interval), diagnosis and treatment start (treatment interval), and the time from presentation to treatment (overall interval). We compared interval lengths between adults aged <50 years, 50 to 74 years, and 75 to 89 years using multivariable quantile regression. RESULTS: Included were 90,225 patients with CRC. Of these, 6853 patients (7.6%) were aged <50 years. Younger patients were more likely to be women, present emergently, have stage IV disease, and have rectal cancer compared with middle-aged patients. Factors associated with significantly longer overall intervals included female sex (8.7 days; 95% confidence interval [CI], 6.6-10.9 days) and rectal cancer compared with proximal colon cancer (9.8 days; 95% CI, 7.4-2.2 days). After adjustment, adults aged <50 years had significantly longer diagnostic intervals (4.3 days; 95% CI. 1.3-7.3 days) and significantly shorter treatment intervals (-4.5 days; 95% CI, -5.3 to -3.7 days) compared with middle-aged patients. However, there was no significant difference in the overall interval (-0.6 days; 95% CI, -4.3 to 3.2 days). In stratified models, younger adults with stage IV disease who presented emergently and patients aged >75 years had longer overall intervals. CONCLUSIONS: Younger adults present more often with stage IV CRC but have overall similar times from presentation to treatment as screening-eligible older adults.

External validation of the Dat'AIDS score: A risk score for predicting 5-year overall mortality in people living with HIV aged 60 years or older.

OBJECTIVE: To perform an external validation of the Dat'AIDS score for predicting 5-year overall mortality among people with HIV (PWH) aged 60 years or older. METHODS: This was a multi-centre prospective cohort study at all sites participating in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS). We calculated the Dat'AIDS score in PWH aged 60 years or older at their first visit between 1 January 2015 and 1 January 2020. People living with HIV-2 and those whose Dat'AIDS score could not be calculated were excluded. Patients were followed until 1 January 2020. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality. Vital status was collected throughout the study period. We obtained population and score descriptive statistics and assessed the score's discrimination and calibration. RESULTS: We included 2205 participants (82% male) of median [interquartile range (IQR)] age 62.0 (60.3-67.0) years, mostly with viraemia <50 copies/mL (92.7%). Median follow-up time was 15.9 years and median (IQR) CD4 cell count at enrolment was 586 (420-782) cells/µL. In all, 152 deaths were recorded during a total follow-up period of 7147 patient-years. The median (IQR) observed Dat'AIDS score was 3 (0-8). Discriminative capacities were good as the C-statistic was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.69-0.77) and consistent across all subgroups. Comparison of observed and expected survival probabilities showed good calibration. CONCLUSIONS: External validation of the Dat'AIDS score in patients aged 60 years or older showed that it could be a useful tool not only for research purposes, but also to identify older patients at a higher mortality risk and to tailor the most appropriate interventions.

Tracking of Cardiorespiratory Fitness from Childhood to Mid-adulthood.

High cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) in adulthood is important for survival from major chronic diseases and preserving good health. We examined how childhood CRF tracks, or persists, into adulthood. Among a cohort of 748 school children followed over 34 years, we found child CRF correlated with young- (r = 0.30) and mid-adulthood (r = 0.16) CRF.

Mortality in patients with incident rheumatoid arthritis and depression: a Danish cohort study of 11 071 patients and 55 355 comparators.

OBJECTIVES: In patients with RA, the association between mortality and depression has been investigated only in patients with prevalent RA. In this study, we estimated the mortality risk associated with depression, defined as the first filling of a prescription for antidepressants, in patients with incident RA and background population comparators. METHODS: From 2008 to 2018, we identified patients with incident RA in the nationwide Danish rheumatologic database, DANBIO. For each patient, we randomly selected five comparators. Participants were not treated with antidepressants or diagnosed with depression 3 years prior to the index date. From other registers we collected data on socioeconomic status, mortality and cause of death using unique personal identifiers. Using Cox models, we calculated hazard rate ratios (HRR) with 95% CI. RESULTS: In depressed patients with RA vs patients without depression, adjusted HRR for all-cause mortality was 5.34 (95% CI 3.02, 9.45) during 0-2 years and 3.15 (95% CI 2.62, 3.79) during the total follow-up period, and highest in patients <55 years with HRR 8.13 (95% CI 3.89, 17.02). In comparators with depression vs comparators without depression, the association with mortality was similar to that in patients with RA. There were no unnatural causes of death among depressed patients with RA. The most frequent natural causes of death were cancer, cardiovascular disease, stroke and pneumonia. CONCLUSION: In patients with RA, depression was a predictor of death but with a strength similar to that in matched comparators.

Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and fecundability: a prospective cohort study.

STUDY QUESTION: Is cervical intraepithelial neoplasia (CIN) associated with reduced fecundability, defined as the probability of conceiving per menstrual cycle? SUMMARY ANSWER: Overall, we observed no meaningful association between CIN and fecundability, regardless of surgical status, although a recent diagnosis of moderate or severe CIN might be associated with slightly reduced fecundability for 2 years after diagnosis. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY: About 15% of couples experience infertility. Few studies have examined the influence of CIN on fertility, and the results have been inconsistent. No study has investigated the association between fecundability and pathologist-reported CIN diagnoses, particularly with respect to the recency of the specific CIN diagnoses. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION: This prospective cohort study included 9586 women trying to conceive. The women were enrolled from 1 June 2007 to 3 February 2020. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS: Women were invited to complete a baseline questionnaire and bimonthly follow-up questionnaires for up to 12 months or until pregnancy occurred. Data on cervical cytologies and biopsies were retrieved from The National Pathology Registry (DNPR), which holds records of all cervical specimens examined in Denmark. Women were categorized based on their most severe diagnosis of CIN: no lesion, other cervical changes, mild CIN (CIN1), or moderate/severe CIN (CIN2+) with or without surgery. To investigate the association between CIN and fecundability, we computed fecundability ratios (FR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) using a proportional probabilities regression model. We adjusted for age at study entry, partner age, body mass index, smoking status, timing of intercourse, parity, education, number of sexual partners, and household income. MAIN RESULTS AND THE ROLE OF CHANCE: Compared with no lesion, the adjusted FRs (95% CI) for the association between CIN and fecundability were: other cervical lesions, 0.97 (0.91-1.04); CIN1, 1.04 (0.96-1.13); CIN2+ no surgery, 1.00 (0.82-1.22); and CIN2+ with surgery 0.99 (0.89-1.10). The FRs (95% CI) for a recent diagnosis (<2 years) of CIN were 0.98 (0.86-1.11) for other cervical lesions; 1.13 (0.99-1.29) for CIN1; 0.89 (0.62-1.26) for CIN2+ no surgery and 0.91 (0.75-1.10) for CIN2+ with surgery compared with the no lesion group. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION: In the analyses, we adjusted for several covariates related to the women. However, we had little information on the male partners which could lead to unmeasured confounding as fecundability is a couple-based measure of fertility. Furthermore, a CIN diagnosis may not be constant as it may regress or progress spontaneously; therefore, it is possible that we have misclassified some women, especially women categorized as having normal cells or CIN1. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS: Our results contribute important knowledge to women who are concerned about their future fertility after receiving a CIN diagnosis. STUDY FUNDING/COMPETING INTEREST(S): This study was funded by The Danish Cancer Society (R167-A11036-17-S2). The overall cohorts were funded by the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (R01-HD086742 and R03-HD094117). The authors report no competing interests. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: N/A.