A mathematical model of COVID-19 and the multi fears of the community during the epidemiological stage.

Within two years, the world has experienced a pandemic phenomenon that changed almost everything in the macro and micro-environment; the economy, the community's social life, education, and many other fields. Governments started to collaborate with health institutions and the WHO to control the pandemic spread, followed by many regulations such as wearing masks, maintaining social distance, and home office work. While the virus has a high transmission rate and shows many mutated forms, another discussion appeared in the community: the fear of getting infected and the side effects of the produced vaccines. The community started to face uncertain information spread through some networks keeping the discussions of side effects on-trend. However, this pollution spread confused the community more and activated multi fears related to the virus and the vaccines. This paper establishes a mathematical model of COVID-19, including the community's fear of getting infected and the possible side effects of the vaccines. These fears appeared from uncertain information spread through some social sources. Our primary target is to show the psychological effect on the community during the pandemic stage. The theoretical study contains the existence and uniqueness of the IVP and, after that, the local stability analysis of both equilibrium points, the disease-free and the positive equilibrium point. Finally, we show the global asymptotic stability holds under specific conditions using a suitable Lyapunov function. In the end, we conclude our theoretical findings with some simulations.

A Comparison Study of Predator-Prey Model in Deterministic and Stochastic Environments with the Impacts of Fear and Habitat Complexity.

In theoretical ecology, recent field experiments on terrestrial vertebrates observe that the predator-prey interaction can not only be curtailed by direct consumption but also governed by some indirect effects such as the fear of predator which may reduce the reproduction rate of prey individuals. Based on this fact, we have developed and explored the predator-prey interaction with the influence of both cost and benefit of fear effect (felt by prey). A Holling type III functional response with the effect of habitat complexity has been taken to consume the prey biomass. Positivity and boundedness of the studied system prove that the model is well-behaved. The uniform persistence of the studied system is derived analytically under some parametric restrictions. The feasibility conditions and stability criteria of each equilibrium points have been discussed. Next, we have exhibited the existence of Hopf-bifurcation around the interior equilibrium point. Our mathematical analyses show that habitat complexity and fear effect both have a great impact on the persistence of the predator biomass. Furthermore, we have investigated the effect of breeding delay parameter such that the system loses its stability behaviour and enters into a limit cycle oscillations through Hopf-bifurcation. Numerical simulations are illustrated to verify our analytical outcomes. Numerically, we have perturbed the death rates of prey and predator species with Gaussian white noise terms due to the effects of environmental fluctuations.

Dynamics of a stage-structured predator-prey model: cost and benefit of fear-induced group defense.

In the predator-prey system, predators can affect the prey population (1) by direct killing and (2) by inducing predation fear, which ultimately force preys to adopt some anti-predator strategies. However, the anti-predator strategy is not the same for all individual preys of different life stages. Also, anti-predator behavior has both cost and benefit, but most of the mathematical models observed the dynamics by incorporating its cost only. In the present study, we formulate a predator-prey model dividing the prey population into two stages: juvenile and adult. We assume that adult preys are only adapting group defense as an anti-predator strategy when they are sensitive to predation. Group defense plays a positive role for adult prey by reducing their predation, but, on the negative side, it simultaneously decreases their reproductive potential. A parameter, anti-predator sensitivity is introduced to interlink both the benefit and cost of group defense. Our result shows that when adult preys are not showing anti-predator behavior, with an increase of maturation rate, the system exhibits a population cycle of abruptly increasing amplitude, which may drive all species of the system to extinction. Anti-predator sensitivity may exclude oscillation through homoclinic bifurcation and avert the prey population for any possible random extinction. Anti-predator sensitivity also decreases the predator population density and produces bistable dynamics. Higher values of anti-predator sensitivity may lead to the extinction of the predator population and benefit adult preys to persist with large population density. Below a threshold value of anti-predator sensitivity, it may possible to retain the predator population in the system by increasing the fear level of the predator. We also observe our fear-induced stage-structured model exhibits interesting and rich dynamical behaviors, various types of bistabilities in different bi-parameter planes. Finally, we discuss the potential impact of our findings.

Evolution and Adaptation of Anti-predation Response of Prey in a Two-Patchy Environment.

When perceiving a risk from predators, a prey may respond by reducing its reproduction and decreasing or increasing (depending on the species) its mobility. We formulate a patch model to investigate the aforementioned fear effect which is indirect, in contrast to the predation as a direct effect, of the predator on the prey population. We consider not only cost but also benefit of anti-predation response of the prey, and explore their trade-offs together as well as the impact of the fear effect mediated dispersals of the prey. In the case of constant response level, if there is no dispersal and for some given response functions, the model indicates the existence of an evolutionary stable strategy which is also a convergence stable strategy for the response level; and if there is dispersal, the analysis of the model shows that it will enhance the co-persistence of the prey on both patches. Considering the trait as another variable, we continue to study the evolution of anti-predation strategy for the model with dispersal, which leads to a three-dimensional system of ordinary differential equations. We perform some numerical simulations, which demonstrate global convergence to a positive equilibrium with the response level evolving towards a positive constant level, implying the existence of an optimal anti-predation response level.

A fractional-order model of COVID-19 considering the fear effect of the media and social networks on the community.

Since December 2019, the world has experienced from a virus, known as Covid-19, that is highly transmittable and is now spread worldwide. Many mathematical models and studies have been implemented to work on the infection and transmission risks. Besides the virus's transmission effect, another discussion appears in the community: the fear effect. People who have never heard about coronavirus, face every day uncertain and different information regarding the effect of the virus and the daily death rates from sources like the media, the medical institutions or organizations. Thus, the fear of the virus in the community can possibly reach the point that people become scared and confused about information polluted from different networks with long-term trend discussions. In this work, we use the Routh-Hurwitz Criteria to analyze the local stability of two essential critical points: the disease-free and the co-existing critical point. Using the discretization process, our analysis have shown that one should distinguish between the spread of "awareness" or "fear" in the community through the media and others to control the virus's transmission. Finally, we conclude our theoretical findings with numerical simulations.

Predation cues rather than resource availability promote cryptic behaviour in a habitat-forming sea urchin.

It is well known that predators often influence the foraging behaviour of prey through the so-called "fear effect". However, it is also possible that predators could change prey behaviour indirectly by altering the prey's food supply through a trophic cascade. The predator-sea urchin-kelp trophic cascade is widely assumed to be driven by the removal of sea urchins by predators, but changes in sea urchin behaviour in response to predators or increased food availability could also play an important role. We tested whether increased crevice occupancy by herbivorous sea urchins in the presence of abundant predatory fishes and lobsters is a response to the increased risk of predation, or an indirect response to higher kelp abundances. Inside two New Zealand marine reserves with abundant predators and kelp, individuals of the sea urchin Evechinus chloroticus were rarer and remained cryptic (i.e. found in crevices) to larger sizes than on adjacent fished coasts where predators and kelp are rare. In a mesocosm experiment, cryptic behaviour was induced by simulated predation (the addition of crushed conspecifics), but the addition of food in the form of drift kelp did not induce cryptic behaviour. These findings demonstrate that the 'fear' of predators is more important than food availability in promoting sea urchin cryptic behaviour and suggest that both density- and behaviourally mediated interactions are important in the predator-sea urchin-kelp trophic cascade.

Modeling the Fear Effect in Predator-Prey Interactions with Adaptive Avoidance of Predators.

Recent field experiments on vertebrates showed that the mere presence of a predator would cause a dramatic change of prey demography. Fear of predators increases the survival probability of prey, but leads to a cost of prey reproduction. Based on the experimental findings, we propose a predator-prey model with the cost of fear and adaptive avoidance of predators. Mathematical analyses show that the fear effect can interplay with maturation delay between juvenile prey and adult prey in determining the long-term population dynamics. A positive equilibrium may lose stability with an intermediate value of delay and regain stability if the delay is large. Numerical simulations show that both strong adaptation of adult prey and the large cost of fear have destabilizing effect while large population of predators has a stabilizing effect on the predator-prey interactions. Numerical simulations also imply that adult prey demonstrates stronger anti-predator behaviors if the population of predators is larger and shows weaker anti-predator behaviors if the cost of fear is larger.

Modelling the fear effect in predator-prey interactions.

A recent field manipulation on a terrestrial vertebrate showed that the fear of predators alone altered anti-predator defences to such an extent that it greatly reduced the reproduction of prey. Because fear can evidently affect the populations of terrestrial vertebrates, we proposed a predator-prey model incorporating the cost of fear into prey reproduction. Our mathematical analyses show that high levels of fear (or equivalently strong anti-predator responses) can stabilize the predator-prey system by excluding the existence of periodic solutions. However, relatively low levels of fear can induce multiple limit cycles via subcritical Hopf bifurcations, leading to a bi-stability phenomenon. Compared to classic predator-prey models which ignore the cost of fear where Hopf bifurcations are typically supercritical, Hopf bifurcations in our model can be both supercritical and subcritical by choosing different sets of parameters. We conducted numerical simulations to explore the relationships between fear effects and other biologically related parameters (e.g. birth/death rate of adult prey), which further demonstrate the impact that fear can have in predator-prey interactions. For example, we found that under the conditions of a Hopf bifurcation, an increase in the level of fear may alter the direction of Hopf bifurcation from supercritical to subcritical when the birth rate of prey increases accordingly. Our simulations also show that the prey is less sensitive in perceiving predation risk with increasing birth rate of prey or increasing death rate of predators, but demonstrate that animals will mount stronger anti-predator defences as the attack rate of predators increases.

Dynamical behaviours of discrete amensalism system with fear effects on first species.

Amensalism, a rare yet impactful symbiotic relationship in ecological systems, is the focus of this study. We examine a discrete-time amensalism system by incorporating the fear effect on the first species. We identify the plausible equilibrium points and analyze their local stability conditions. The global attractivity of the positive equilibrium, $ E^* $, and the boundary equilibrium, $ E_1 $, are analyzed by exploring threshold conditions linked to the level of fear. Additionally, we analyze transcritical bifurcations and flip bifurcations exhibited by the boundary equilibrium points analytically. Considering some biologically feasible parameter values, we conduct extensive numerical simulations. From numerical simulations, it is observed that the level of fear has a stabilizing effect on the system dynamics when it increases. It eventually accelerates the extinction process for the first species as the level of fear continues to increase. These findings highlight the complex interplay between external factors and intrinsic system dynamics, enriching potential mechanisms for driving species changes and extinction events.

Population dynamics of a stoichiometric aquatic tri-trophic level model with fear effect.

In this paper, a stoichiometric aquatic tri-trophic level model is proposed and analyzed, which incorporates the effect of light and phosphorus, as well as the fear effect in predator-prey interactions. The analysis of the model includes the dissipativity and the existence and stability of equilibria. The influence of environmental factors and fear effect on the dynamics of the system is particularly investigated. The key findings reveal that the coexistence of populations is positively influenced by an appropriate level of light intensity and/or the dissolved phosphorus input concentration; however, excessive levels of phosphorus input can disrupt the system, leading to chaotic behaviors. Furthermore, it is found that the fear effect can stabilize the system and promote the chances of population coexistence.

Fear effect in a three-species food chain model with generalist predator.

Within the framework of a food web, the foraging behavior of meso-carnivorous species is influenced by fear responses elicited by higher trophic level species, consequently diminishing the fecundity of these species. In this study, we investigate a three-species food chain model comprising of prey, an intermediate predator, and a top predator. We assume that both the birth rate and intraspecies competition of prey are impacted by fear induced by the intermediate predator. Additionally, the foraging behavior of the intermediate predator is constrained due to the presence of the top predator. It is essential to note that the top predators exhibit a generalist feeding behavior, encompassing food sources beyond the intermediate predators. The study systematically determines all feasible equilibria of the proposed model and conducts a comprehensive stability analysis of these equilibria. The investigation reveals that the system undergoes Hopf bifurcation concerning various model parameters. Notably, when other food sources significantly contribute to the growth of the top predators, the system exhibits stable behavior around the interior equilibrium. Our findings indicate that the dynamic influence of fear plays a robust role in stabilizing the system. Furthermore, a cascading effect within the system, stemming from the fear instigated by top predators, is observed and analyzed. Overall, this research sheds light on the intricate dynamics of fear-induced responses in shaping the stability and behavior of multi-species food web systems, highlighting the profound cascading effects triggered by fear mechanisms in the ecosystem.

Quantum of fear: Herbivore grazing rates not affected by reef shark presence.

Grazing by nominally herbivorous fishes is widely recognised as a critical ecosystem function on coral reefs. However, several studies have suggested that herbivory is reduced in the presence of predators, especially sharks. Nevertheless, the effects of shark presence on grazing, under natural settings, remains poorly resolved. Using ∼200 h of video footage, we quantify the extent of direct disturbance by reef sharks on grazing fishes. Contrary to expectations, grazing rate was not significantly suppressed due to sharks, with fishes resuming feeding in as little as 4 s after sharks passed. Based on our observations, we estimate that an average m2 area of reef at our study locations would be subjected to ∼5 s of acute shark disturbance during daylight hours. It appears the short-term impact of reef shark presence has a negligible effect on herbivore grazing rates, with the variable nature of grazing under natural conditions overwhelming any fear effects.

Bifurcation analysis in a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with fear effect and multiple delays.

In this paper, we explored a modified Leslie-Gower predator-prey model incorporating a fear effect and multiple delays. We analyzed the existence and local stability of each potential equilibrium. Furthermore, we investigated the presence of periodic solutions via Hopf bifurcation bifurcated from the positive equilibrium with respect to both delays. By utilizing the normal form theory and the center manifold theorem, we investigated the direction and stability of these periodic solutions. Our theoretical findings were validated through numerical simulations, which demonstrated that the fear delay could trigger a stability shift at the positive equilibrium. Additionally, we observed that an increase in fear intensity or the presence of substitute prey reinforces the stability of the positive equilibrium.

Bifurcation analysis of Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with harvesting and fear effect.

In the paper, a Leslie-Gower predator-prey system with harvesting and fear effect is considered. The existence and stability of all possible equilibrium points are analyzed. The bifurcation dynamic behavior at key equilibrium points is investigated to explore the intrinsic driving mechanisms of population interaction modes. It is shown that the system undergoes various bifurcations, including transcritical, saddle-node, Hopf and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcations. The numerical simulation results show that harvesting and fear effect can seriously affect the dynamic evolution trend and coexistence mode. Furthermore, it is particularly worth pointing out that harvesting not only drives changes in population coexistence mode, but also has a certain degree delay. Finally, it is anticipated that these research results will be beneficial for the vigorous development of predator-prey system.

Stability and Hopf bifurcation in an eco-epidemiological system with the cost of anti-predator behaviors.

The fear effect is a powerful force in prey-predator interaction, eliciting a variety of anti-predator responses which lead to a reduction of prey growth rate. To study the impact of the fear effect on population dynamics of the eco-epidemiological system, we develop a predator-prey interaction model that incorporates infectious disease in predator population as well as the cost of anti-predator behaviors. Detailed mathematical results, including well-posedness of solutions, stability of equilibria and the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation are provided. It turns out that population density diminishes with increasing fear, and the fear effect can either destabilize the stability or induce the occurrence of periodic behavior. The theoretical results here provide a sound foundation for understanding the effect of the anti-predator behaviors on the eco-epidemiological interaction.

Dynamic analysis of a Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with the fear effect and nonlinear harvesting.

In this paper, we investigate the stability and bifurcation of a Leslie-Gower predator-prey model with a fear effect and nonlinear harvesting. We discuss the existence and stability of equilibria, and show that the unique equilibrium is a cusp of codimension three. Moreover, we show that saddle-node bifurcation and Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation can occur. Also, the system undergoes a degenerate Hopf bifurcation and has two limit cycles (i.e., the inner one is stable and the outer is unstable), which implies the bistable phenomenon. We conclude that the large amount of fear and prey harvesting are detrimental to the survival of the prey and predator.

Analysis of stochastic disease including predator-prey model with fear factor and Lévy jump.

In this paper, we investigate the dynamical properties of a stochastic predator-prey model with a fear effect. We also introduce infectious disease factors into prey populations and distinguish prey populations into susceptible prey and infected prey populations. Then, we discuss the effect of Lévy noise on the population considering extreme environmental situations. First of all, we prove the existence of a unique global positive solution for this system. Second, we demonstrate the conditions for the extinction of three populations. Under the conditions that infectious diseases are effectively prevented, the conditions for the existence and extinction of susceptible prey populations and predator populations are explored. Third, the stochastic ultimate boundedness of system and the ergodic stationary distribution without Lévy noise are also demonstrated. Finally, we use numerical simulations to verify the conclusions obtained and summarize the work of the paper.

Dynamic behaviors of a Leslie-Gower model with strong Allee effect and fear effect in prey.

We incorporate the strong Allee effect and fear effect in prey into a Leslie-Gower model. The origin is an attractor, which implies that the ecological system collapses at low densities. Qualitative analysis reveals that both effects are crucial in determining the dynamical behaviors of the model. There can be different types of bifurcations such as saddle-node bifurcation, non-degenerate Hopf bifurcation with a simple limit cycle, degenerate Hopf bifurcation with multiple limit cycles, Bogdanov-Takens bifurcation, and homoclinic bifurcation.

The effect of "fear" on two species competition.

Non-consumptive effects such as fear of depredation, can strongly influence predator-prey dynamics. There are several ecological and social motivations for these effects in competitive systems as well. In this work we consider the classic two species ODE and PDE Lotka-Volterra competition models, where one of the competitors is "fearful" of the other. We find that the presence of fear can have several interesting dynamical effects on the classical competitive scenarios. Notably, for fear levels in certain regimes, we show novel bi-stability dynamics. Furthermore, in the spatially explicit setting, the effects of several spatially heterogeneous fear functions are investigated. In particular, we show that under certain integral restrictions on the fear function, a weak competition type situation can change to competitive exclusion. Applications of these results to ecological as well as sociopolitical settings are discussed, that connect to the "landscape of fear" (LOF) concept in ecology.

Modeling the fear effect in the predator-prey dynamics with an age structure in the predators.

We incorporate the fear effect and the maturation period of predators into a diffusive predator-prey model. Local and global asymptotic stability for constant steady states as well as uniform persistence of the solution are obtained. Under some conditions, we also exclude the existence of spatially nonhomogeneous steady states and the steady state bifurcation bifurcating from the positive constant steady state. Hopf bifurcation analysis is carried out by using the maturation period of predators as a bifurcation parameter, and we show that global Hopf branches are bounded. Finally, we conduct numerical simulations to explore interesting spatial-temporal patterns.