California's 2023 snow deluge: Contextualizing an extreme snow year against future climate change.

The increasing prevalence of low snow conditions in a warming climate has attracted substantial attention in recent years, but a focus exclusively on low snow leaves high snow years relatively underexplored. However, these large snow years are hydrologically and economically important in regions where snow is critical for water resources. Here, we introduce the term "snow deluge" and use anomalously high snowpack in California's Sierra Nevada during the 2023 water year as a case study. Snow monitoring sites across the state had a median 41 y return interval for April 1 snow water equivalent (SWE). Similarly, a process-based snow model showed a 54 y return interval for statewide April 1 SWE (90% CI: 38 to 109 y). While snow droughts can result from either warm or dry conditions, snow deluges require both cool and wet conditions. Relative to the last century, cool-season temperature and precipitation during California's 2023 snow deluge were both moderately anomalous, while temperature was highly anomalous relative to recent climatology. Downscaled climate models in the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway-370 scenario indicate that California snow deluges-which we define as the 20 y April 1 SWE event-are projected to decline with climate change (58% decline by late century), although less so than median snow years (73% decline by late century). This pattern occurs across the western United States. Changes to snow deluge, and discrepancies between snow deluge and median snow year changes, could impact water resources and ecosystems. Understanding these changes is therefore critical to appropriate climate adaptation.

Widespread seawater intrusions beneath the grounded ice of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica.

Warm water from the Southern Ocean has a dominant impact on the evolution of Antarctic glaciers and in turn on their contribution to sea level rise. Using a continuous time series of daily-repeat satellite synthetic-aperture radar interferometry data from the ICEYE constellation collected in March-June 2023, we document an ice grounding zone, or region of tidally controlled migration of the transition boundary between grounded ice and ice afloat in the ocean, at the main trunk of Thwaites Glacier, West Antarctica, a strong contributor to sea level rise with an ice volume equivalent to a 0.6-m global sea level rise. The ice grounding zone is 6 km wide in the central part of Thwaites with shallow bed slopes, and 2 km wide along its flanks with steep basal slopes. We additionally detect irregular seawater intrusions, 5 to 10 cm in thickness, extending another 6 km upstream, at high tide, in a bed depression located beyond a bedrock ridge that impedes the glacier retreat. Seawater intrusions align well with regions predicted by the GlaDS subglacial water model to host a high-pressure distributed subglacial hydrology system in between lower-pressure subglacial channels. Pressurized seawater intrusions will induce vigorous melt of grounded ice over kilometers, making the glacier more vulnerable to ocean warming, and increasing the projections of ice mass loss. Kilometer-wide, widespread seawater intrusion beneath grounded ice may be the missing link between the rapid, past, and present changes in ice sheet mass and the slower changes replicated by ice sheet models.

Permafrost extent sets drainage density in the Arctic.

Amplified warming of high latitudes and rapid thaw of frozen ground threaten permafrost carbon stocks. The presence of permafrost modulates water infiltration and flow, as well as sediment transport, on soil-mantled slopes, influencing the balance of advective fluvial processes to diffusive processes on hillslopes in ways that are different from temperate settings. These processes that shape permafrost landscapes also impact the carbon stored on soil-mantled hillslopes via temperature, saturation, and slope stability such that carbon stocks and landscape morphometry should be closely linked. We studied [Formula: see text]69,000 headwater basins between 25° and 90 °N to determine whether the thermal state of the soil sets the balance between hillslope (diffusive) and fluvial (advective) erosion processes, as evidenced by the density of the channel networks (i.e., drainage density) and the proportion of convex to concave topography (hillslopes and river valleys, respectively). Watersheds within permafrost regions have lower drainage densities than regions without permafrost, regardless of watershed glacial history, mean annual precipitation, and relief. We find evidence that advective fluvial processes are inhibited in permafrost landscapes compared to their temperate counterparts. Frozen soils likely inhibit channel development, and we predict that climate warming will lower incision thresholds to promote growth of the channel network in permafrost landscapes. By demonstrating how the balance of advective versus diffusive processes might shift with future warming, we gain insight into the mechanisms that shift these landscapes from sequestering to exporting carbon.

Reconstructing river flows remotely on Earth, Titan, and Mars.

Alluvial rivers are conveyor belts of fluid and sediment that provide a record of upstream climate and erosion on Earth, Titan, and Mars. However, many of Earth's rivers remain unsurveyed, Titan's rivers are not well resolved by current spacecraft data, and Mars' rivers are no longer active, hindering reconstructions of planetary surface conditions. To overcome these problems, we use dimensionless hydraulic geometry relations-scaling laws that relate river channel dimensions to flow and sediment transport rates-to calculate in-channel conditions using only remote sensing measurements of channel width and slope. On Earth, this offers a way to predict flow and sediment flux in rivers that lack field measurements and shows that the distinct dynamics of bedload-dominated, suspended load-dominated, and bedrock rivers give rise to distinct channel characteristics. On Mars, this approach not only predicts grain sizes at Gale Crater and Jezero Crater that overlap with those measured by the Curiosity and Perseverance rovers, it enables reconstructions of past flow conditions that are consistent with proposed long-lived hydrologic activity at both craters. On Titan, our predicted sediment fluxes to the coast of Ontario Lacus could build the lake's river delta in as little as ~1,000 y, and our scaling relationships suggest that Titan's rivers may be wider, slope more gently, and transport sediment at lower flows than rivers on Earth or Mars. Our approach provides a template for predicting channel properties remotely for alluvial rivers across Earth, along with interpreting spacecraft observations of rivers on Titan and Mars.

Double stress of waterlogging and drought drives forest-savanna coexistence.

Forest-savanna boundaries are ecotones that support complex ecosystem functions and are sensitive to biotic/abiotic perturbations. What drives their distribution today and how it may shift in the future are open questions. Feedbacks among climate, fire, herbivory, and land use are known drivers. Here, we show that alternating seasonal drought and waterlogging stress favors the dominance of savanna-like ecosystems over forests. We track the seasonal water-table depth as an indicator of water stress when too deep and oxygen stress when too shallow and map forest/savanna occurrence within this double-stress space in the neotropics. We find that under a given annual precipitation, savannas are favored in landscape positions experiencing double stress, which is more common as the dry season strengthens (climate driver) but only found in waterlogged lowlands (terrain driver). We further show that hydrological changes at the end of the century may expose some flooded forests to savanna expansion, affecting biodiversity and soil carbon storage. Our results highlight the importance of land hydrology in understanding/predicting forest-savanna transitions in a changing world.

The importance of hydrology in routing terrestrial carbon to the atmosphere via global streams and rivers.

SignificanceStream/river carbon dioxide (CO2) emission has significant spatial and seasonal variations critical for understanding its macroecosystem controls and plumbing of the terrestrial carbon budget. We relied on direct fluvial CO2 partial pressure measurements and seasonally varying gas transfer velocity and river network surface area estimates to resolve reach-level seasonal variations of the flux at the global scale. The percentage of terrestrial primary production (GPP) shunted into rivers that ultimately contributes to CO2 evasion increases with discharge across regions, due to a stronger response in fluvial CO2 evasion to discharge than GPP. This highlights the importance of hydrology, in particular water throughput, in terrestrial-fluvial carbon transfers and the need to account for this effect in plumbing the terrestrial carbon budget.

Outbreeding reduces survival during metamorphosis in a headwater stream salamander.

Assessing direct fitness effects of individual genetic diversity is challenging due to the intensive and long-term data needed to quantify survival and reproduction in the wild. But resolving these effects is necessary to determine how inbreeding and outbreeding influence eco-evolutionary processes. We used 8 years of capture-recapture data and single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes for 1906 individuals to test for effects of individual heterozygosity on stage-specific survival probabilities in the salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus. The life cycle of G. porphyriticus includes an aquatic larval stage followed by metamorphosis into a semi-aquatic adult stage. In our study populations, the larval stage lasts 6-10 years, metamorphosis takes several months, and lifespan can reach 20 years. Previous studies showed that metamorphosis is a sensitive life stage, leading us to predict that fitness effects of individual heterozygosity would occur during metamorphosis. Consistent with this prediction, monthly probability of survival during metamorphosis declined with multi-locus heterozygosity (MLH), from 0.38 at the lowest MLH (0.10) to 0.06 at the highest MLH (0.38), a reduction of 84%. Body condition of larvae also declined significantly with increasing MLH. These relationships were consistent in the three study streams. With evidence of localised inbreeding within streams, these results suggest that outbreeding disrupts adaptations in pre-metamorphic and metamorphic individuals to environmental gradients along streams, adding to evidence that headwater streams are hotspots of microgeographic adaptation. Our results also underscore the importance of incorporating life history in analyses of the fitness effects of individual genetic diversity and suggest that metamorphosis and similar discrete life stage transitions may be critical periods of viability selection.

Dominance of net autotrophy in arid landscape low relief polar lakes, Nunavut, Canada.

The Arctic is the fastest warming biome on the planet, and environmental changes are having striking effects on freshwater ecosystems that may impact the regional carbon cycle. The metabolic state of Arctic lakes is often considered net heterotrophic, due to an assumed supply of allochthonous organic matter that supports ecosystem respiration and carbon mineralization in excess of rates of primary production. However, lake metabolic patterns vary according to regional climatic characteristics, hydrological connectivity, organic matter sources and intrinsic lake properties, and the metabolism of most Arctic lakes is unknown. We sampled 35 waterbodies along a connectivity gradient from headwater to downstream lakes, on southern Victoria Island, Nunavut, in an area characterized by low precipitation, organic-poor soils, and high evaporation rates. We evaluated whether lakes were net autotrophic or heterotrophic during the open water period using an oxygen isotopic mass balance approach. Most of the waterbodies were autotrophic and sites of net organic matter production or close to metabolic equilibrium. Autotrophy was associated with higher benthic primary production, as compared to its pelagic counterpart, due to the high irradiance reaching the bottom and efficient internal carbon and nutrient cycling. Highly connected midstream and downstream lakes showed efficient organic matter cycling, as evidenced by the strong coupling between gross primary production (GPP) and ecosystem respiration, while decoupling was observed in some headwater lakes with significantly higher GPP. The shallow nature of lakes in the flat, arid region of southern Victoria Island supports net autotrophy in most lakes during the open water season. Ongoing climate changes that lengthen the ice-free irradiance period and increase rates of nutrient evapoconcentration may further promote net autotrophy, with uncertain long-term effects for lake functioning.

Climate change causes declines and greater extremes in wetland inundation in a region important for wetland birds.

Wetland ecosystems are vital for maintaining global biodiversity, as they provide important stopover sites for many species of migrating wetland-associated birds. However, because weather determines their hydrologic cycles, wetlands are highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. Although changes in temperature and precipitation resulting from climate change are expected to reduce inundation of wetlands, few efforts have been made to quantify how these changes will influence the availability of stopover sites for migratory wetland birds. Additionally, few studies have evaluated how climate change will influence interannual variability or the frequency of extremes in wetland availability. For spring and fall bird migration in seven ecoregions in the south-central Great Plains of North America, we developed predictive models associating abundance of inundated wetlands with a suite of weather and land cover variables. We then used these models to generate predictions of wetland inundation at the end of the century (2069-2099) under future climate change scenarios. Climate models predicted the average number of inundated wetlands will likely decline during both spring and fall migration periods, with declines being greatest in the eastern ecoregions of the southern Great Plains. However, the magnitude of predicted declines varied considerably across climate models and ecoregions, with uncertainty among climate models being greatest in the High Plains ecoregion. Most ecoregions also were predicted to experience more-frequent extremely dry years (i.e., years with extremely low wetland abundances), but the projected change in interannual variability of wetland inundation was relatively small and varied across ecoregions and seasons. Because the south-central Great Plains represents an important link along the migratory routes of many wetland-dependent avian species, future declines in wetland inundation and more frequent periods of only a few wetlands being inundated will result in an uncertain future for migratory birds as they experience reduced availability of wetland stopover habitat across their migration pathways.

Recognizing Agricultural Headwaters as Critical Ecosystems.

Agricultural headwaters are positioned at the interface between terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and, therefore, at the margins of scientific disciplines. They are deemed devoid of biodiversity and too polluted by ecologists, overlooked by hydrologists, and are perceived as a nuisance by landowners and water authorities. While agricultural streams are widespread and represent a major habitat in terms of stream length, they remain understudied and thereby undervalued. Agricultural headwater streams are significantly modified and polluted but at the same time are the critical linkages among land, air, and water ecosystems. They exhibit the largest variation in streamflow, water quality, and greenhouse gas emission with cascading effects on the entire stream networks, yet they are underrepresented in monitoring, remediation, and restoration. Therefore, we call for more intense efforts to characterize and understand the inherent variability and sensitivity of these ecosystems to global change drivers through scientific and regulatory monitoring and to improve their ecosystem conditions and functions through purposeful and evidence-based remediation.