Quantifying fire-specific smoke exposure and health impacts.

Rapidly changing wildfire regimes across the Western United States have driven more frequent and severe wildfires, resulting in wide-ranging societal threats from wildfires and wildfire-generated smoke. However, common measures of fire severity focus on what is burned, disregarding the societal impacts of smoke generated from each fire. We combine satellite-derived fire scars, air parcel trajectories from individual fires, and predicted smoke PM2.5 to link source fires to resulting smoke PM2.5 and health impacts experienced by populations in the contiguous United States from April 2006 to 2020. We quantify fire-specific accumulated smoke exposure based on the cumulative population exposed to smoke PM2.5 over the duration of a fire and estimate excess asthma-related emergency department (ED) visits as a result of this exposure. We find that excess asthma visits attributable to each fire are only moderately correlated with common measures of wildfire severity, including burned area, structures destroyed, and suppression cost. Additionally, while recent California fires contributed nearly half of the country's smoke-related excess asthma ED visits during our study period, the most severe individual fire was the 2007 Bugaboo fire in the Southeast. We estimate that a majority of smoke PM2.5 comes from sources outside the local jurisdictions where the smoke is experienced, with 87% coming from fires in other counties and 60% from fires in other states. Our approach could enable broad-scale assessment of whether specific fire characteristics affect smoke toxicity or impact, inform cost-effectiveness assessments for allocation of suppression resources, and help clarify the growing transboundary nature of local air quality.

Rubble pile asteroids are forever.

Rubble piles asteroids consist of reassembled fragments from shattered monolithic asteroids and are much more abundant than previously thought in the solar system. Although monolithic asteroids that are a kilometer in diameter have been predicted to have a lifespan of few 100 million years, it is currently not known how durable rubble pile asteroids are. Here, we show that rubble pile asteroids can survive ambient solar system bombardment processes for extremely long periods and potentially 10 times longer than their monolith counterparts. We studied three regolith dust particles recovered by the Hayabusa space probe from the rubble pile asteroid 25143 Itokawa using electron backscatter diffraction, time-of-flight secondary ion mass spectrometry, atom probe tomography, and 40Ar/39Ar dating techniques. Our results show that the particles have only been affected by shock pressure of ca. 5 to 15 GPa. Two particles have 40Ar/39Ar ages of 4,219 ± 35 and 4,149 ± 41 My and when combined with thermal and diffusion models; these results constrain the formation age of the rubble pile structure to ≥4.2 billion years ago. Such a long survival time for an asteroid is attributed to the shock-absorbent nature of rubble pile material and suggests that rubble piles are hard to destroy once they are created. Our results suggest that rubble piles are probably more abundant in the asteroid belt than previously thought and provide constrain to help develop mitigation strategies to prevent asteroid collisions with Earth.

Uncertainty in boundedly rational household adaptation to environmental shocks.

Despite the growing calls to integrate realistic human behavior in sustainability science models, the representative rational agent prevails. This is especially problematic for climate change adaptation that relies on actions at various scales: from governments to individuals. Empirical evidence on individual adaptation to climate-induced hazards reveals diverse behavioral and social factors affecting economic considerations. Yet, implications of replacing the rational optimizer by realistic human behavior in nature-society systems models are poorly understood. Using an innovative evolutionary economic agent-based model we explore different framings regarding household adaptation behavior to floods, leveraging on behavioral data from a household survey in Miami, USA. We find that a representative rational agent significantly overestimates household adaptation diffusion and underestimates damages compared to boundedly rational behavior revealed from our survey. This "adaptation deficit" exhibited by a population of empirically informed agents is explained primarily by diverse "soft" adaptation constraints-awareness, social influences-rather than heterogeneity in financial constraints. Besides initial inequality disproportionally impacting low/medium adaptive capacity households post-flood, our findings suggest that even under a nearly complete adaptation diffusion, adaptation benefits are uneven, with late or less-efficient actions locking households to a path of higher damages, further exacerbating inequalities. Our exploratory modeling reveals that behavioral assumptions shape the uncertainty of physical factors, like exposure and objective effectiveness of flood-proofing measures, traditionally considered crucial in risk assessments. This unique combination of methods facilitates the assessment of cumulative and distributional effects of boundedly rational behavior essential for designing tailored climate adaptation policies, and for equitable sustainability transitions in general.

Recently constructed hydropower dams were associated with reduced economic production, population, and greenness in nearby areas.

Hydropower dams produce huge impacts on renewable energy production, water resources, and economic development, particularly in the Global South, where accelerated dam construction has made it a global hotspot. We do not fully understand the multiple impacts that dams have in the nearby areas from a global perspective, including the spatial differentiations. In this study, we examined the impacts of hydropower dam construction in nearby areas. We first found that more than one-third of global gross domestic production (GDP) and almost one-third of global population fall within 50 km of the world's 7,155 hydropower dams (<10% of the global land area sans the Antarctic). We further analyzed impacts of 631 hydropower dams (≥1-megawatt capacity) constructed since 2001 and commissioned before 2015 for their effects on economy, population, and environment in nearby areas and examined the results in five regions (i.e., Africa, Asia, Europe, North America, and South America) and by different dam sizes. We found that recently constructed dams were associated with increased GDP in North America and urban areas in Europe but with decreased GDP, urban land, and population in the Global South and greenness in Africa in nearby areas. Globally, these dams were linked with reduced economic production, population, and greenness of areas within 50 km of the dams. While large dams were related with reduced GDP and greenness significantly, small and medium dams were coupled with lowered population and urban land substantially, and large and medium dams were connected to diminished nighttime light noticeably in nearby areas.

Trawl impacts on the relative status of biotic communities of seabed sedimentary habitats in 24 regions worldwide.

Bottom trawling is widespread globally and impacts seabed habitats. However, risks from trawling remain unquantified at large scales in most regions. We address these issues by synthesizing evidence on the impacts of different trawl-gear types, seabed recovery rates, and spatial distributions of trawling intensity in a quantitative indicator of biotic status (relative amount of pretrawling biota) for sedimentary habitats, where most bottom-trawling occurs, in 24 regions worldwide. Regional average status relative to an untrawled state (=1) was high (>0.9) in 15 regions, but <0.7 in three (European) regions and only 0.25 in the Adriatic Sea. Across all regions, 66% of seabed area was not trawled (status = 1), 1.5% was depleted (status = 0), and 93% had status > 0.8. These assessments are first order, based on parameters estimated with uncertainty from meta-analyses; we recommend regional analyses to refine parameters for local specificity. Nevertheless, our results are sufficiently robust to highlight regions needing more effective management to reduce exploitation and improve stock sustainability and seabed environmental status-while also showing seabed status was high (>0.95) in regions where catches of trawled fish stocks meet accepted benchmarks for sustainable exploitation, demonstrating that environmental benefits accrue from effective fisheries management. Furthermore, regional seabed status was related to the proportional area swept by trawling, enabling preliminary predictions of regional status when only the total amount of trawling is known. This research advances seascape-scale understanding of trawl impacts in regions around the world, enables quantitative assessment of sustainability risks, and facilitates implementation of an ecosystem approach to trawl fisheries management globally.

The importance of internal climate variability in climate impact projections.

Uncertainty in climate projections is driven by three components: scenario uncertainty, intermodel uncertainty, and internal variability. Although socioeconomic climate impact studies increasingly take into account the first two components, little attention has been paid to the role of internal variability, although underestimating this uncertainty may lead to underestimating the socioeconomic costs of climate change. Using large ensembles from seven coupled general circulation models with a total of 414 model runs, we partition the climate uncertainty in classic dose-response models relating county-level corn yield, mortality, and per-capita gross domestic product to temperature in the continental United States. The partitioning of uncertainty depends on the time frame of projection, the impact model, and the geographic region. Internal variability represents more than 50% of the total climate uncertainty in certain projections, including mortality projections for the early 21st century, although its relative influence decreases over time. We recommend including uncertainty due to internal variability for many projections of temperature-driven impacts, including early-century and midcentury projections, projections in regions with high internal variability such as the Upper Midwest United States, and impacts driven by nonlinear relationships.

Global airborne bacterial community-interactions with Earth's microbiomes and anthropogenic activities.

Airborne bacteria are an influential component of the Earth's microbiomes, but their community structure and biogeographic distribution patterns have yet to be understood. We analyzed the bacterial communities of 370 air particulate samples collected from 63 sites around the world and constructed an airborne bacterial reference catalog with more than 27 million nonredundant 16S ribosomal RNA (rRNA) gene sequences. We present their biogeographic pattern and decipher the interlacing of the microbiome co-occurrence network with surface environments of the Earth. While the total abundance of global airborne bacteria in the troposphere (1.72 × 1024 cells) is 1 to 3 orders of magnitude lower than that of other habitats, the number of bacterial taxa (i.e., richness) in the atmosphere (4.71 × 108 to 3.08 × 109) is comparable to that in the hydrosphere, and its maximum occurs in midlatitude regions, as is also observed in other ecosystems. The airborne bacterial community harbors a unique set of dominant taxa (24 species); however, its structure appears to be more easily perturbed, due to the more prominent role of stochastic processes in shaping community assembly. This is corroborated by the major contribution of surface microbiomes to airborne bacteria (averaging 46.3%), while atmospheric conditions such as meteorological factors and air quality also play a role. Particularly in urban areas, human impacts weaken the relative importance of plant sources of airborne bacteria and elevate the occurrence of potential pathogens from anthropogenic sources. These findings serve as a key reference for predicting planetary microbiome responses and the health impacts of inhalable microbiomes with future changes in the environment.

Ship traffic connects Antarctica's fragile coasts to worldwide ecosystems.

Antarctica, an isolated and long considered pristine wilderness, is becoming increasingly exposed to the negative effects of ship-borne human activity, and especially the introduction of invasive species. Here, we provide a comprehensive quantitative analysis of ship movements into Antarctic waters and a spatially explicit assessment of introduction risk for nonnative marine species in all Antarctic waters. We show that vessels traverse Antarctica's isolating natural barriers, connecting it directly via an extensive network of ship activity to all global regions, especially South Atlantic and European ports. Ship visits are more than seven times higher to the Antarctic Peninsula (especially east of Anvers Island) and the South Shetland Islands than elsewhere around Antarctica, together accounting for 88% of visits to Southern Ocean ecoregions. Contrary to expectations, we show that while the five recognized "Antarctic Gateway cities" are important last ports of call, especially for research and tourism vessels, an additional 53 ports had vessels directly departing to Antarctica from 2014 to 2018. We identify ports outside Antarctica where biosecurity interventions could be most effectively implemented and the most vulnerable Antarctic locations where monitoring programs for high-risk invaders should be established.

Human papillomavirus prevalence among Australian men aged 18-35 years in 2015-2018 according to vaccination status and sexual preference.

BACKGROUND: Australia introduced a national HPV vaccination program for girls in 2007 and boys in 2013, achieving high coverage in both populations. We assessed HPV prevalence among men who have sex with women (MSW) and men who have sex with men (MSM) aged 18-35 years and examined program effects by vaccination status. METHODS: Men recruited between 2015-2018 self-collected a penile or intra-anal swab for HPV genotyping. HPV vaccination status was confirmed with the National Register. HPV prevalence was examined by age groups and vaccination status. RESULTS: Of 1,625 men included (median age 27 years; IQR [23-30]), 231 (14.2%) were vaccinated, and 1,370 (84.3%) were unvaccinated. Among 984 MSW, the prevalence of quadrivalent vaccine-targeted HPV types (6,11,16,18) was 10.6% (95%CI: 8.7-12.8) in unvaccinated and 10.7% (5.7-19.3%) in vaccinated men (p=0.96). Prevalence was lowest in the youngest age groups regardless of vaccination status. Among MSM, quadrivalent HPV type prevalence was 40.3% (36.0-44.8%) in unvaccinated and 29.9% (23.1-37.8%) in vaccinated men (p=0.02). In unvaccinated MSM, prevalence was high regardless of age, whereas among vaccinated MSM, prevalence was lowest in the youngest age-group (p=0.001). Among those with confirmed doses, quadrivalent HPV types were detected in 0% (0-7.7%; n=46) of men who had their first dose at 13-19 years and 37.2% (27.5-47.8%; n=94) of those who received their first dose at 20 years or older. CONCLUSION: Our data demonstrates the importance of universal adolescent HPV vaccination to ensure MSM receive the same benefits as MSW.

Uncovering widespread Anthropocene dietary shifts in Chinese large mammalian herbivores.

The Anthropocene's human-dominated habitat expansion endangers global biodiversity. However, large mammalian herbivores experienced few extinctions during the 20th century, hinting at potentially overlooked ecological responses of a group sensitive to global change. Using dental microwear as a proxy, we studied large herbivore dietary niches over a century across mainland China before (1880s-1910s) and after (1970s-1990s) the human population explosion. We uncovered widespread and significant shifts (interspecific microwear differences increased and intraspecific microwear dispersion expanded) within dietary niches linked to geographical areas with rapid industrialization and population growth in eastern China. By contrast, in western China, where human population growth was slower, we found no indications of shifts in herbivore dietary niches. Further regression analysis links the intensity of microwear changes to human land-use expansion. These analyses highlight dietary adjustments of large herbivores as a likely key factor in their adaptation across a century of large-scale human-driven changes.

Uncovering the hidden effects of repetitive subconcussive head impact exposure: A mega-analytic approach characterizing seasonal brain microstructural changes in contact and collision sports athletes.

Repetitive subconcussive head impacts (RSHI) are believed to induce sub-clinical brain injuries, potentially resulting in cumulative, long-term brain alterations. This study explores patterns of longitudinal brain white matter changes across sports with RSHI-exposure. A systematic literature search identified 22 datasets with longitudinal diffusion magnetic resonance imaging data. Four datasets were centrally pooled to perform uniform quality control and data preprocessing. A total of 131 non-concussed active athletes (American football, rugby, ice hockey; mean age: 20.06 ± 2.06 years) with baseline and post-season data were included. Nonparametric permutation inference (one-sample t tests, one-sided) was applied to analyze the difference maps of multiple diffusion parameters. The analyses revealed widespread lateralized patterns of sports-season-related increases and decreases in mean diffusivity (MD), radial diffusivity (RD), and axial diffusivity (AD) across spatially distinct white matter regions. Increases were shown across one MD-cluster (3195 voxels; mean change: 2.34%), one AD-cluster (5740 voxels; mean change: 1.75%), and three RD-clusters (817 total voxels; mean change: 3.11 to 4.70%). Decreases were shown across two MD-clusters (1637 total voxels; mean change: -1.43 to -1.48%), two RD-clusters (1240 total voxels; mean change: -1.92 to -1.93%), and one AD-cluster (724 voxels; mean change: -1.28%). The resulting pattern implies the presence of strain-induced injuries in central and brainstem regions, with comparatively milder physical exercise-induced effects across frontal and superior regions of the left hemisphere, which need further investigation. This article highlights key considerations that need to be addressed in future work to enhance our understanding of the nature of observed white matter changes, improve the comparability of findings across studies, and promote data pooling initiatives to allow more detailed investigations (e.g., exploring sex- and sport-specific effects).

Inflammatory biomarkers for neurobehavioral dysregulation in former American football players: findings from the DIAGNOSE CTE Research Project.

BACKGROUND: Traumatic encephalopathy syndrome (TES) is defined as the clinical manifestation of the neuropathological entity chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE). A core feature of TES is neurobehavioral dysregulation (NBD), a neuropsychiatric syndrome in repetitive head impact (RHI)-exposed individuals, characterized by a poor regulation of emotions/behavior. To discover biological correlates for NBD, we investigated the association between biomarkers of inflammation (interleukin (IL)-1ß, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, C-reactive protein (CRP), tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α) in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) and NBD symptoms in former American football players and unexposed individuals. METHODS: Our cohort consisted of former American football players, with (n = 104) or without (n = 76) NBD diagnosis, as well as asymptomatic unexposed individuals (n = 55) from the DIAGNOSE CTE Research Project. Specific measures for NBD were derived (i.e., explosivity, emotional dyscontrol, impulsivity, affective lability, and a total NBD score) from a factor analysis of multiple self-report neuropsychiatric measures. Analyses of covariance tested differences in biomarker concentrations between the three groups. Within former football players, multivariable linear regression models assessed relationships among log-transformed inflammatory biomarkers, proxies for RHI exposure (total years of football, cumulative head impact index), and NBD factor scores, adjusted for relevant confounding variables. Sensitivity analyses tested (1) differences in age subgroups (< 60, ≥ 60 years); (2) whether associations could be identified with plasma inflammatory biomarkers; (3) associations between neurodegeneration and NBD, using plasma neurofilament light (NfL) chain protein; and (4) associations between biomarkers and cognitive performance to explore broader clinical symptoms related to TES. RESULTS: CSF IL-6 was higher in former American football players with NBD diagnosis compared to players without NBD. Furthermore, elevated levels of CSF IL-6 were significantly associated with higher emotional dyscontrol, affective lability, impulsivity, and total NBD scores. In older football players, plasma NfL was associated with higher emotional dyscontrol and impulsivity, but also with worse executive function and processing speed. Proxies for RHI exposure were not significantly associated with biomarker concentrations. CONCLUSION: Specific NBD symptoms in former American football players may result from multiple factors, including neuroinflammation and neurodegeneration. Future studies need to unravel the exact link between NBD and RHI exposure, including the role of other pathophysiological pathways.

Energy input, habitat heterogeneity and host specificity drive avian haemosporidian diversity at continental scales.

The correct identification of variables affecting parasite diversity and assemblage composition at different spatial scales is crucial for understanding how pathogen distribution responds to anthropogenic disturbance and climate change. Here, we used a database of avian haemosporidian parasites to test how the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity and phylogenetic structure of the genera Plasmodium, Haemoproteus and Leucocytozoon from three zoogeographic regions are related to surrogate variables of Earth's energy input, habitat heterogeneity (climatic diversity, landscape heterogeneity, host richness and human disturbance) and ecological interactions (resource use), which was measured by a novel assemblage-level metric related to parasite niche overlap (degree of generalism). We found that different components of energy input explained variation in richness for each genus. We found that human disturbance influences the phylogenetic structure of Haemoproteus while the degree of generalism explained richness and phylogenetic structure of Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon genera. Furthermore, landscape attributes related to human disturbance (human footprint) can filter Haemoproteus assemblages by their phylogenetic relatedness. Finally, assembly processes related to resource use within parasite assemblages modify species richness and phylogenetic structure of Plasmodium and Leucocytozoon assemblages. Overall, our study highlighted the genus-specific patterns with the different components of Earth's energy budget, human disturbances and degree of generalism.

Fear of the human 'super predator' in native marsupials and introduced deer in Australia.

Recent experiments have demonstrated that carnivores and ungulates in Africa, Asia, Europe and North America fear the human 'super predator' far more than other predators. Australian mammals have been a focus of research on predator naiveté because it is suspected they show atypical antipredator responses. To experimentally test if mammals in Australia also most fear humans, we quantified the responses of four native marsupials (eastern grey kangaroo, Bennett's wallaby, Tasmanian pademelon, common brushtail possum) and introduced fallow deer to playbacks of predator (human, dog, Tasmanian devil, wolf) or non-predator control (sheep) vocalizations. Native marsupials most feared the human 'super predator', fleeing humans 2.4 times more often than the next most frightening predator (dogs), and being most, and significantly, vigilant to humans. These results demonstrate that native marsupials are not naïve to the peril humans pose, substantially expanding the taxonomic and geographic scope of the growing experimental evidence that wildlife worldwide generally perceive humans as the planet's most frightening predator. Introduced fallow deer fled humans, but not more than other predators, which we suggest may result from their being introduced. Our results point to both challenges concerning marsupial conservation and opportunities for exploiting fear of humans as a wildlife management tool.

Habitat specialization predicts demographic response and vulnerability of floodplain birds in Amazonia.

The annual flooding cycle of Amazonian rivers sustains the largest floodplains on Earth, which harbour a unique bird community. Recent studies suggest that habitat specialization drove different patterns of population structure and gene flow in floodplain birds. However, the lack of a direct estimate of habitat affinity prevents a proper test of its effects on population histories. In this work, we used occurrence data, satellite images and genomic data (ultra-conserved elements) from 24 bird species specialized on a variety of seasonally flooded environments to classify habitat affinities and test its influence on evolutionary histories of Amazonian floodplain birds. We demonstrate that birds with higher specialization in river islands and dynamic environments have gone through more recent demographic expansion and currently have less genetic diversity than floodplain generalist birds. Our results indicate that there is an intrinsic relationship between habitat affinity and environmental dynamics, influencing patterns of population structure, demographic history and genetic diversity. Within the floodplains, historical landscape changes have had more severe impacts on island specialists, making them more vulnerable to current and future anthropogenic changes, as those imposed by hydroelectric dams in the Amazon Basin.

Cortical-sparing chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CSCTE): a distinct subtype of CTE.

Chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE) is a neurodegenerative disease caused by repetitive head impacts (RHI) and pathologically defined as neuronal phosphorylated tau aggregates around small blood vessels and concentrated at sulcal depths. Cross-sectional studies suggest that tau inclusions follow a stereotyped pattern that begins in the neocortex in low stage disease, followed by involvement of the medial temporal lobe and subcortical regions with significant neocortical burden in high stage CTE. Here, we define a subset of brain donors with high stage CTE and with a low overall cortical burden of tau inclusions (mean semiquantitative value ≤1) and classify them as cortical-sparing CTE (CSCTE). Of 620 brain donors with pathologically diagnosed CTE, 66 (11%) met criteria for CSCTE. Compared to typical high stage CTE, those with CSCTE had a similar age at death and years of contact sports participation and were less likely to carry apolipoprotein ε4 (p < 0.05). CSCTE had less overall tau pathology severity, but a proportional increase of disease burden in medial temporal lobe and brainstem regions compared to the neocortex (p's < 0.001). CSCTE also had lower prevalence of comorbid neurodegenerative disease. Clinically, CSCTE participants were less likely to have dementia (p =  0.023) and had less severe cognitive difficulties (as reported by informants using the Functional Activities Questionnaire (FAQ); p < 0.001, meta-cognitional index T score; p = 0.002 and Cognitive Difficulties Scale (CDS); p < 0.001,) but had an earlier onset age of behavioral (p = 0.006) and Parkinsonian motor (p = 0.013) symptoms when compared to typical high stage CTE. Other comorbid tauopathies likely contributed in part to these differences: when cases with concurrent Alzheimer dementia or frontal temporal lobar degeneration with tau pathology were excluded, differences were largely retained, but only remained significant for FAQ (p = 0.042), meta-cognition index T score (p = 0.014) and age of Parkinsonian motor symptom onset (p = 0.046). Overall, CSCTE appears to be a distinct subtype of high stage CTE with relatively greater involvement of subcortical and brainstem regions and less severe cognitive symptoms.

Driver-response relationships in a large shallow lake since the Anthropocene: Short-term abrupt perturbations versus long-term sustainable.

Lakes, as integral social-ecological systems, are hotspots for exploring climatic and anthropogenic impacts, with crucial pathways revealed by continuous sediment records. However, the response of multi-proxies in large shallow lakes to typical abrupt events and sustained drivers since the Anthropocene remains unclear. Here, we explored the driver-identification relationships between multi-proxy peaks and natural and anthropogenic events as well as the attribution of short-term perturbations and long-term pressures. To this end, sediment core records, socio-ecological data, and documented events from official records were integrated into a large shallow lake (Dongting Lake, China). Significant causal cascades and path effects (goodness-of-fit: 0.488; total effect: -1.10; p < .001) were observed among catchment environmental proxies, lake biogenic proxies, and mixed-source proxies. The peak-event identification rate (PEIR) and event-peak driving rate were proposed, and values of 28.57%-46.43% and 50%-81.25% were obtained, respectively. The incomplete accuracy of depicting event perturbations using sediment proxies was caused by various information filters both inside and outside the lake. PEIRs for compound events were 1.41 (±0.72) and 1.09 (±0.46) times greater than those for anthropogenic-dominated and natural-dominated events, respectively. Furthermore, socio-economic activity, hydrologic dynamics, land-use changes, and agriculture exerted significant and persistent pressures, cumulatively contributing 55.3%-80.9% to alterations in sediment proxies. Relatively synergistic or antagonistic trends in temporal contributions of these forces were observed after 2000, which were primarily attributed to the "Grain for Green" project and the Three Gorges Dam. This study represents one of the few investigations to distinguish the driver-response relationship of multiple proxies in large shallow lakes under typical event perturbations and long-term sustained pressures since the Anthropocene. The findings will help policymakers and managers address ecological perturbations triggered by climate change and human activities over long-term periods.

Drivers and human impacts on topsoil bacterial and fungal community biogeography across Australia.

Soil microbial diversity mediates a wide range of key processes and ecosystem services influencing planetary health. Our knowledge of microbial biogeography patterns, spatial drivers and human impacts at the continental scale remains limited. Here, we reveal the drivers of bacterial and fungal community distribution in Australian topsoils using 1384 soil samples from diverse bioregions. Our findings highlight that climate factors, particularly precipitation and temperature, along with soil properties, are the primary drivers of topsoil microbial biogeography. Using random forest machine-learning models, we generated high-resolution maps of soil bacteria and fungi across continental Australia. The maps revealed microbial hotspots, for example, the eastern coast, southeastern coast, and west coast were dominated by Proteobacteria and Acidobacteria. Fungal distribution is strongly influenced by precipitation, with Ascomycota dominating the central region. This study also demonstrated the impact of human modification on the underground microbial community at the continental scale, which significantly increased the relative abundance of Proteobacteria and Ascomycota, but decreased Chloroflexi and Basidiomycota. The variations in microbial phyla could be attributed to distinct responses to altered environmental factors after human modifications. This study provides insights into the biogeography of soil microbiota, valuable for regional soil biodiversity assessments and monitoring microbial responses to global changes.

Advances and knowledge gaps on climate change impacts on honey bees and beekeeping: A systematic review.

The Western honey bee Apis mellifera is a managed species that provides diverse hive products and contributing to wild plant pollination, as well as being a critical component of crop pollination systems worldwide. High mortality rates have been reported in different continents attributed to different factors, including pesticides, pests, diseases, and lack of floral resources. Furthermore, climate change has been identified as a potential driver negatively impacting pollinators, but it is still unclear how it could affect honey bee populations. In this context, we carried out a systematic review to synthesize the effects of climate change on honey bees and beekeeping activities. A total of 90 articles were identified, providing insight into potential impacts (negative, neutral, and positive) on honey bees and beekeeping. Interest in climate change's impact on honey bees has increased in the last decade, with studies mainly focusing on honey bee individuals, using empirical and experimental approaches, and performed at short-spatial (<10 km) and temporal (<5 years) scales. Moreover, environmental analyses were mainly based on short-term data (weather) and concentrated on only a few countries. Environmental variables such as temperature, precipitation, and wind were widely studied and had generalized negative effects on different biological and ecological aspects of honey bees. Food reserves, plant-pollinator networks, mortality, gene expression, and metabolism were negatively impacted. Knowledge gaps included a lack of studies at the apiary and beekeeper level, a limited number of predictive and perception studies, poor representation of large-spatial and mid-term scales, a lack of climate analysis, and a poor understanding of the potential impacts of pests and diseases. Finally, climate change's impacts on global beekeeping are still an emergent issue. This is mainly due to their diverse effects on honey bees and the potential necessity of implementing adaptation measures to sustain this activity under complex environmental scenarios.

La abeja occidental Apis mellifera es una especie manejada que proporciona diversos productos de la colmena y servicios de polinización, los cuales son cruciales para plantas silvestres y cultivos en todo el mundo. En distintos continentes se han registrado altas tasas de mortalidad, las cuales son atribuidas a diversos factores, como el uso de pesticidas, plagas, enfermedades y falta de recursos florales. Además, el cambio climático ha sido identificado como un potencial factor que afecta negativamente a los polinizadores, pero aún no está claro cómo podría afectar a las poblaciones de abejas melíferas. En este contexto, realizamos una revisión sistemática de la literatura disponible para sintetizar los efectos del cambio climático en las abejas melíferas y las actividades apícolas. En total, se identificaron 90 artículos que proporcionaron información sobre los posibles efectos (negativos, neutros y positivos) en las abejas melíferas y la apicultura. El interés por el impacto del cambio climático en las abejas melíferas ha aumentado en la última década, con estudios centrados principalmente en individuos de abejas melíferas, utilizando enfoques empíricos y experimentales y realizados a escalas espaciales (<10 km) y temporales (<5 años) cortas. Además, los análisis ambientales fueron basaron principalmente en datos a corto plazo (meteorológicos) y se concentraron sólo en algunos países. Variables ambientales como la temperatura, las precipitaciones y el viento fueron ampliamente estudiadas y tuvieron efectos negativos generalizados sobre distintos aspectos biológicos y ecológicos de las abejas melíferas. Además, las reservas alimenticias, las interacciones planta-polinizador, la mortalidad, la expresión génica y el metabolismo se vieron afectados negativamente. Entre los vacios de conocimiento cabe mencionar la falta de estudios a nivel de colmenar y apicultor, la escasez de estudios de predicción y percepción, la escasa representación de las grandes escalas espaciales y a mediano plazo, el déficit de análisis climáticos y la escasa comprensión de los impactos potenciales de plagas y enfermedades. Por último, las repercusiones del cambio climático en la apicultura mundial siguen siendo un tema emergente, que debe estudiarse en los distintos países. Esto se debe principalmente a sus diversos efectos sobre las abejas melíferas y a la necesidad potencial de aplicar medidas de adaptación para mantener esta actividad crucial en escenarios medioambientales complejos.

Beyond resilience: Responses to changing climate and disturbance regimes in temperate forest landscapes across the Northern Hemisphere.

Climate change has profound impacts on forest ecosystem dynamics and could lead to the emergence of novel ecosystems via changes in species composition, forest structure, and potentially a complete loss of tree cover. Disturbances fundamentally shape those dynamics: the prevailing disturbance regime of a region determines the inherent variability of a system, and its climate-mediated change could accelerate forest transformation. We used the individual-based forest landscape and disturbance model iLand to investigate the resilience of three protected temperate forest landscapes on three continents-selected to represent a gradient from low to high disturbance activity-to changing climate and disturbance regimes. In scenarios of sustained strong global warming, natural disturbances increased across all landscapes regardless of projected changes in precipitation (up to a sevenfold increase in disturbance rate over the 180-year simulation period). Forests in landscapes with historically high disturbance activity had a higher chance of remaining resilient in the future, retaining their structure and composition within the range of variability inherent to the system. However, the risk of regime shift and forest loss was also highest in these systems, suggesting forests may be vulnerable to abrupt change beyond a threshold of increasing disturbance activity. Resilience generally decreased with increasing severity of climate change. Novelty in tree species composition was more common than novelty in forest structure, especially under dry climate scenarios. Forests close to the upper tree line experienced high novelty in structure across all three study systems. Our results highlight common patterns and processes of forest change, while also underlining the diverse and context-specific responses of temperate forest landscapes to climate change. Understanding past and future disturbance regimes can anticipate the magnitude and direction of forest change. Yet, even across a broad gradient of disturbance activity, we conclude that climate change mitigation is the most effective means of maintaining forest resilience.