Mutation of p53 increases the competitive ability of pluripotent stem cells.

During development, the rate of tissue growth is determined by the relative balance of cell division and cell death. Cell competition is a fitness quality-control mechanism that contributes to this balance by eliminating viable cells that are less fit than their neighbours. The mutations that confer cells with a competitive advantage and the dynamics of the interactions between winner and loser cells are not well understood. Here, we show that embryonic cells lacking the tumour suppressor p53 are 'super-competitors' that eliminate their wild-type neighbours through the direct induction of apoptosis. This elimination is context dependent, as it does not occur when cells are pluripotent and it is triggered by the onset of differentiation. Furthermore, by combining mathematical modelling and cell-based assays we show that the elimination of wild-type cells is not through competition for space or nutrients, but instead is mediated by short-range interactions that are dependent on the local cell neighbourhood. This highlights the importance of the local cell neighbourhood and the competitive interactions within this neighbourhood for the regulation of proliferation during early embryonic development.

A mathematical framework for measuring and tuning tempo in developmental gene regulatory networks.

Embryo development is a dynamic process governed by the regulation of timing and sequences of gene expression, which control the proper growth of the organism. Although many genetic programmes coordinating these sequences are common across species, the timescales of gene expression can vary significantly among different organisms. Currently, substantial experimental efforts are focused on identifying molecular mechanisms that control these temporal aspects. In contrast, the capacity of established mathematical models to incorporate tempo control while maintaining the same dynamical landscape remains less understood. Here, we address this gap by developing a mathematical framework that links the functionality of developmental programmes to the corresponding gene expression orbits (or landscapes). This unlocks the ability to find tempo differences as perturbations in the dynamical system that preserve its orbits. We demonstrate that this framework allows for the prediction of molecular mechanisms governing tempo, through both numerical and analytical methods. Our exploration includes two case studies: a generic network featuring coupled production and degradation, with a particular application to neural progenitor differentiation; and the repressilator. In the latter, we illustrate how altering the dimerisation rates of transcription factors can decouple the tempo from the shape of the resulting orbits. We conclude by highlighting how the identification of orthogonal molecular mechanisms for tempo control can inform the design of circuits with specific orbits and tempos.

Two-way feedback between chromatin compaction and histone modification state explains Saccharomyces cerevisiae heterochromatin bistability.

Compact chromatin is closely linked with gene silencing in part by sterically masking access to promoters, inhibiting transcription factor binding and preventing polymerase from efficiently transcribing a gene. However, a broader hypothesis suggests that chromatin compaction can be both a cause and a consequence of the locus histone modification state, with a tight bidirectional interaction underpinning bistable transcriptional states. To rigorously test this hypothesis, we developed a mathematical model for the dynamics of the HMR locus in Saccharomyces cerevisiae, that incorporates activating histone modifications, silencing proteins, and a dynamic, acetylation-dependent, three-dimensional locus size. Chromatin compaction enhances silencer protein binding, which in turn feeds back to remove activating histone modifications, leading to further compaction. The bistable output of the model was in good agreement with prior quantitative data, including switching rates from expressed to silent states (and vice versa), and protein binding/histone modification levels within the locus. We then tested the model by predicting changes in switching rates as the genetic length of the locus was increased, which were then experimentally verified. Such bidirectional feedback between chromatin compaction and the histone modification state may be a widespread and important regulatory mechanism given the hallmarks of many heterochromatic regions: physical chromatin compaction and dimerizing (or multivalent) silencing proteins.

On the origins of developmental robustness: modeling buffering mechanisms against cell-level noise.

During development, cells are subject to stochastic fluctuations in their positions (i.e. cell-level noise) that can potentially lead to morphological noise (i.e. stochastic differences between morphologies that are expected to be equal, e.g. the right and left sides of bilateral organisms). In this study, we explore new and existing hypotheses on buffering mechanisms against cell-level noise. Many of these hypotheses focus on how the boundaries between territories of gene expression remain regular and well defined, despite cell-level noise and division. We study these hypotheses and how irregular territory boundaries lead to morphological noise. To determine the consistency of the different hypotheses, we use a general computational model of development: EmbryoMaker. EmbryoMaker can implement arbitrary gene networks regulating basic cell behaviors (contraction, adhesion, etc.), signaling and tissue biomechanics. We found that buffering mechanisms based on the orientation of cell divisions cannot lead to regular boundaries but that other buffering mechanisms can (homotypic adhesion, planar contraction, non-dividing boundaries, constant signaling and majority rule hypotheses). We also explore the effects of the shape and size of the territories on morphological noise.

Crystallography of honeycomb formation under geometric frustration.

As honeybees build their nests in preexisting tree cavities, they must deal with the presence of geometric constraints, resulting in nonregular hexagons and topological defects in the comb. In this work, we study how bees adapt to their environment in order to regulate the comb structure. Specifically, we identify the irregularities in honeycomb structure in the presence of various geometric frustrations. We 3D-print experimental frames with a variety of constraints imposed on the imprinted foundations. The combs constructed by the bees show clear evidence of recurring patterns in response to specific geometric frustrations on these starter frames. Furthermore, using an experimental-modeling framework, we demonstrate that these patterns can be successfully modeled and replicated through a simulated annealing process, in which the minimized potential is a variation of the Lennard-Jones potential that considers only first-neighbor interactions according to a Delaunay triangulation. Our simulation results not only confirm the connection between honeycomb structures and other crystal systems such as graphene, but also show that irregularities in the honeycomb structure can be explained as the result of analogous interactions between cells and their immediate surroundings, leading to emergent global order. Additionally, our computational model can be used as a first step to describe specific strategies that bees use to effectively solve geometric mismatches while minimizing cost of comb building.

Estimating the Potential Public Health Value of BCG Revaccination.

An upcoming trial may provide further evidence that adolescent/adult-targeted BCG revaccination prevents sustained Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection, but its public health value depends on its impact on overall tuberculosis morbidity and mortality, which will remain unknown. Using previously calibrated models for India and South Africa, we simulated BCG revaccination assuming 45% prevention-of-infection efficacy, and we evaluated scenarios varying additional prevention-of-disease efficacy between +50% (reducing risk) and -50% (increasing risk). Given the assumed prevention-of-infection efficacy and range in prevention-of-disease efficacy, BCG revaccination may have a positive health impact and be cost-effective. This may be useful when considering future evaluations and implementation of adolescent/adult BCG revaccination.

A detailed kinetic model of glycolysis in Plasmodium falciparum-infected red blood cells for antimalarial drug target identification.

Upon infection by the malaria parasite Plasmodium falciparum, the glycolytic rate of a red blood cell increases up to 100-fold, possibly contributing to lactic acidosis and hypoglycemia in patients with severe malaria. This dramatic increase in glucose uptake and metabolism was correctly predicted by a newly constructed detailed enzyme kinetic model of glucose metabolism in the trophozoite-infected red blood cell. Subsequently, we expanded the model to simulate an infected red blood cell culture, including the different asexual blood-stage forms of the malaria parasite. The model simulations were in good agreement with experimental data, for which the measured parasitic volume was an important parameter. Upon further analysis of the model, we identified glucose transport as a drug target that would specifically affect infected red blood cells, which was confirmed experimentally with inhibitor titrations. This model can be a first step in constructing a whole-body model for glucose metabolism in malaria patients to evaluate the contribution of the parasite's metabolism to the disease state.

Using Passive Surveillance to Maintain Elimination as a Public Health Problem for Neglected Tropical Diseases: A Model-Based Exploration.

BACKGROUND: Great progress is being made toward the goal of elimination as a public health problem for neglected tropical diseases such as leprosy, human African trypanosomiasis, Buruli ulcer, and visceral leishmaniasis, which relies on intensified disease management and case finding. However, strategies for maintaining this goal are still under discussion. Passive surveillance is a core pillar of a long-term, sustainable surveillance program. METHODS: We use a generic model of disease transmission with slow epidemic growth rates and cases detected through severe symptoms and passive detection to evaluate under what circumstances passive detection alone can keep transmission under control. RESULTS: Reducing the period of infectiousness due to decreasing time to treatment has a small effect on reducing transmission. Therefore, to prevent resurgence, passive surveillance needs to be very efficient. For some diseases, the treatment time and level of passive detection needed to prevent resurgence is unlikely to be obtainable. CONCLUSIONS: The success of a passive surveillance program crucially depends on what proportion of cases are detected, how much of their infectious period is reduced, and the underlying reproduction number of the disease. Modeling suggests that relying on passive detection alone is unlikely to be enough to maintain elimination goals.

Cost-effectiveness of Low-complexity Screening Tests in Community-based Case-finding for Tuberculosis.

INTRODUCTION: In high-burden settings, low-complexity screening tests for tuberculosis (TB) could expand the reach of community-based case-finding efforts. The potential costs and cost-effectiveness of approaches incorporating these tests are poorly understood. METHODS: We developed a microsimulation model assessing 3 approaches to community-based case-finding in hypothetical populations (India-, South Africa-, The Philippines-, Uganda-, and Vietnam-like settings) with TB prevalence 4 times that of national estimates: (1) screening with a point-of-care C-reactive protein (CRP) test, (2) screening with a more sensitive "Hypothetical Screening test" (95% sensitive for Xpert Ultra-positive TB, 70% specificity; equipment/labor costs similar to Xpert Ultra, but using a $2 cartridge) followed by sputum Xpert Ultra if positive, or (3) testing all individuals with sputum Xpert Ultra. Costs are expressed in 2023 US dollars and include treatment costs. RESULTS: Universal Xpert Ultra was estimated to cost a mean $4.0 million (95% uncertainty range: $3.5 to $4.6 million) and avert 3200 (2600 to 3900) TB-related disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) per 100 000 people screened ($670 [The Philippines] to $2000 [Vietnam] per DALY averted). CRP was projected to cost $550 (The Philippines) to $1500 (Vietnam) per DALY averted but with 44% fewer DALYs averted. The Hypothetical Screening test showed minimal benefit compared to universal Xpert Ultra, but if specificity were improved to 95% and per-test cost to $4.5 (all-inclusive), this strategy could cost $390 (The Philippines) to $940 (Vietnam) per DALY averted. CONCLUSIONS: Screening tests can meaningfully improve the cost-effectiveness of community-based case-finding for TB but only if they are sensitive, specific, and inexpensive.

Proof of concept of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling in paediatric acute lymphoblastic leukaemia.

Physiologically based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) modelling is an alternative modelling technique that is increasingly used in pharmacokinetics. Due to its nature, it can be complementarily employed to population pharmacokinetics, especially when it comes to small population size. Here, we report the proof of concept of its application to accurately describe the pharmacokinetics of a recombinant L-asparaginase in paediatric patients with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia. Data from two randomized, double-blind, phase II/III clinical studies (MC-ASP.4/ALL; MC-ASP.5/ALL) were included to setup and evaluate the final model, respectively. Final population values for basic pharmacokinetic parameters were calculated (clearance: 0.0569 L/h/19.5 kg, volume of distribution: 1.251 L, half-life: 18.5 h, trough concentration: 140.9 IU/L). Pharmacokinetic parameter prediction as well as predictive performance of the model proofed to be comparable to a separately developed population pharmacokinetic model with 13% deviation in predicted median L-asparaginase trough levels. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first whole-body PBPK model of a non-antibody therapeutic protein.

Quantifying the impact of hospital catchment area definitions on hospital admissions forecasts: COVID-19 in England, September 2020-April 2021.

BACKGROUND: Defining healthcare facility catchment areas is a key step in predicting future healthcare demand in epidemic settings. Forecasts of hospitalisations can be informed by leading indicators measured at the community level. However, this relies on the definition of so-called catchment areas or the geographies whose populations make up the patients admitted to a given hospital, which are often not well-defined. Little work has been done to quantify the impact of hospital catchment area definitions on healthcare demand forecasting. METHODS: We made forecasts of local-level hospital admissions using a scaled convolution of local cases (as defined by the hospital catchment area) and delay distribution. Hospital catchment area definitions were derived from either simple heuristics (in which people are admitted to their nearest hospital or any nearby hospital) or historical admissions data (all emergency or elective admissions in 2019, or COVID-19 admissions), plus a marginal baseline definition based on the distribution of all hospital admissions. We evaluated predictive performance using each hospital catchment area definition using the weighted interval score and considered how this changed by the length of the predictive horizon, the date on which the forecast was made, and by location. We also considered the change, if any, in the relative performance of each definition in retrospective vs. real-time settings, or at different spatial scales. RESULTS: The choice of hospital catchment area definition affected the accuracy of hospital admission forecasts. The definition based on COVID-19 admissions data resulted in the most accurate forecasts at both a 7- and 14-day horizon and was one of the top two best-performing definitions across forecast dates and locations. The "nearby" heuristic also performed well, but less consistently than the COVID-19 data definition. The marginal distribution baseline, which did not include any spatial information, was the lowest-ranked definition. The relative performance of the definitions was larger when using case forecasts compared to future observed cases. All results were consistent across spatial scales of the catchment area definitions. CONCLUSIONS: Using catchment area definitions derived from context-specific data can improve local-level hospital admission forecasts. Where context-specific data is not available, using catchment areas defined by carefully chosen heuristics is a sufficiently good substitute. There is clear value in understanding what drives local admissions patterns, and further research is needed to understand the impact of different catchment area definitions on forecast performance where case trends are more heterogeneous.

Incorporating social vulnerability in infectious disease mathematical modelling: a scoping review.

BACKGROUND: Highlighted by the rise of COVID-19, climate change, and conflict, socially vulnerable populations are least resilient to disaster. In infectious disease management, mathematical models are a commonly used tool. Researchers should include social vulnerability in models to strengthen their utility in reflecting real-world dynamics. We conducted a scoping review to evaluate how researchers have incorporated social vulnerability into infectious disease mathematical models. METHODS: The methodology followed the Joanna Briggs Institute and updated Arksey and O'Malley frameworks, verified by the PRISMA-ScR checklist. PubMed, Clarivate Web of Science, Scopus, EBSCO Africa Wide Information, and Cochrane Library were systematically searched for peer-reviewed published articles. Screening and extracting data were done by two independent researchers. RESULTS: Of 4075 results, 89 articles were identified. Two-thirds of articles used a compartmental model (n = 58, 65.2%), with a quarter using agent-based models (n = 24, 27.0%). Overall, routine indicators, namely age and sex, were among the most frequently used measures (n = 42, 12.3%; n = 22, 6.4%, respectively). Only one measure related to culture and social behaviour (0.3%). For compartmental models, researchers commonly constructed distinct models for each level of a social vulnerability measure and included new parameters or influenced standard parameters in model equations (n = 30, 51.7%). For all agent-based models, characteristics were assigned to hosts (n = 24, 100.0%), with most models including age, contact behaviour, and/or sex (n = 18, 75.0%; n = 14, 53.3%; n = 10, 41.7%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Given the importance of equitable and effective infectious disease management, there is potential to further the field. Our findings demonstrate that social vulnerability is not considered holistically. There is a focus on incorporating routine demographic indicators but important cultural and social behaviours that impact health outcomes are excluded. It is crucial to develop models that foreground social vulnerability to not only design more equitable interventions, but also to develop more effective infectious disease control and elimination strategies. Furthermore, this study revealed the lack of transparency around data sources, inconsistent reporting, lack of collaboration with local experts, and limited studies focused on modelling cultural indicators. These challenges are priorities for future research.

Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization.

Mathematical models within the Ross-Macdonald framework increasingly play a role in our understanding of vector-borne disease dynamics and as tools for assessing scenarios to respond to emerging threats. These threats are typically characterized by a high degree of heterogeneity, introducing a range of possible complexities in models and challenges to maintain the link with empirical evidence. We systematically identified and analysed a total of 77 published papers presenting compartmental West Nile virus (WNV) models that use parameter values derived from empirical studies. Using a set of 15 criteria, we measured the dissimilarity compared with the Ross-Macdonald framework. We also retrieved the purpose and type of models and traced the empirical sources of their parameters. Our review highlights the increasing refinements in WNV models. Models for prediction included the highest number of refinements. We found uneven distributions of refinements and of evidence for parameter values. We identified several challenges in parametrizing such increasingly complex models. For parameters common to most models, we also synthesize the empirical evidence for their values and ranges. The study highlights the potential to improve the quality of WNV models and their applicability for policy by establishing closer collaboration between mathematical modelling and empirical work.

Sensitivity analysis of models of gas exchange for lung hyperpolarised 129Xe MR.

Sensitivity analysis enables the identification of influential parameters and the optimisation of model composition. Such methods have not previously been applied systematically to models describing hyperpolarised 129Xe gas exchange in the lung. Here, we evaluate the current 129Xe gas exchange models to assess their precision for identifying alterations in pulmonary vascular function and lung microstructure. We assess sensitivity using established univariate methods and scatter plots for parameter interactions. We apply them to the model described by Patz et al and the Model of Xenon Exchange (MOXE), examining their ability to measure: i) importance (rank), ii) temporal dependence and iii) interaction effects of each parameter across healthy and diseased ranges. The univariate methods and scatter plot analyses demonstrate consistently similar results for the importance of parameters common to both models evaluated. Alveolar surface area to volume ratio is identified as the parameter to which model signals are most sensitive. The alveolar-capillary barrier thickness is identified as a low-sensitivity parameter for the MOXE model. An acquisition window of at least 200 ms effectively demonstrates model sensitivity to most parameters. Scatter plots reveal interaction effects in both models, impacting output variability and sensitivity. Our sensitivity analysis ranks the parameters within the model described by Patz et al and within the MOXE model. The MOXE model shows low sensitivity to alveolar-capillary barrier thickness, highlighting the need for designing acquisition protocols optimised for the measurement of this parameter. The presence of parameter interaction effects highlights the requirement for care in interpreting model outputs.

Modelling suggests Wolbachia-induced cytoplasmic incompatibility in oak gall wasps with cyclical parthenogenesis.

Oak gall wasps typically exhibit a life cycle with one sexual and one asexual generation each year. These wasps can carry various endosymbionts, one of which is the maternally inherited bacterium Wolbachia that can induce several reproductive manipulations on its host. Cytoplasmic incompatibility (CI) has been described as the most prominent of these manipulations. CI leads to embryonic mortality in the hosts' offspring when infected males mate with either uninfected females or with females that harbour different Wolbachia strains. It has been hypothesized that Wolbachia can induce CI in oak gall wasps. To address this hypothesis, we derived a mathematical model to investigate the spread of a bacterial infection in naive populations and to determine the plausibility of CI occurrence. To validate our model, we used published data from Wolbachia-infected Belonocnema kinseyi populations in two approaches. Our first approach uses measurements of infection frequencies and maternal transmission in the sexual generation. For the second approach, we extended the model to compare predictions to estimates of mtDNA-haplotypes, which, like Wolbachia, are maternally inherited, and can therefore be associated with the infection. Both approaches indicate that CI is present in these populations. Our model can be generalized to investigate the occurrence of CI not only for oak gall wasps but also for other species.

Fast and Accurate Maximum-Likelihood Estimation of Multi-Type Birth-Death Epidemiological Models from Phylogenetic Trees.

Multi-type birth-death (MTBD) models are phylodynamic analogies of compartmental models in classical epidemiology. They serve to infer such epidemiological parameters as the average number of secondary infections Re and the infectious time from a phylogenetic tree (a genealogy of pathogen sequences). The representatives of this model family focus on various aspects of pathogen epidemics. For instance, the birth-death exposed-infectious (BDEI) model describes the transmission of pathogens featuring an incubation period (when there is a delay between the moment of infection and becoming infectious, as for Ebola and SARS-CoV-2), and permits its estimation along with other parameters. With constantly growing sequencing data, MTBD models should be extremely useful for unravelling information on pathogen epidemics. However, existing implementations of these models in a phylodynamic framework have not yet caught up with the sequencing speed. Computing time and numerical instability issues limit their applicability to medium data sets (≤ 500 samples), while the accuracy of estimations should increase with more data. We propose a new highly parallelizable formulation of ordinary differential equations for MTBD models. We also extend them to forests to represent situations when a (sub-)epidemic started from several cases (e.g., multiple introductions to a country). We implemented it for the BDEI model in a maximum likelihood framework using a combination of numerical analysis methods for efficient equation resolution. Our implementation estimates epidemiological parameter values and their confidence intervals in two minutes on a phylogenetic tree of 10,000 samples. Comparison to the existing implementations on simulated data shows that it is not only much faster but also more accurate. An application of our tool to the 2014 Ebola epidemic in Sierra-Leone is also convincing, with very fast calculation and precise estimates. As MTBD models are closely related to Cladogenetic State Speciation and Extinction (ClaSSE)-like models, our findings could also be easily transferred to the macroevolution domain.

Characterization of differences in immune responses during bolus and continuous infusion endotoxin challenges using mathematical modelling.

Endotoxin administration is commonly used to study the inflammatory response, and though traditionally given as a bolus injection, it can be administered as a continuous infusion over multiple hours. Several studies hypothesize that the latter better represents the prolonged and pronounced inflammation observed in conditions like sepsis. Yet very few experimental studies have administered endotoxin using both strategies, leaving significant gaps in determining the underlying mechanisms responsible for their differing immune responses. We used mathematical modelling to analyse cytokine data from two studies administering a 2 ng kg-1 dose of endotoxin, one as a bolus and the other as a continuous infusion over 4 h. Using our model, we simulated the dynamics of mean and subject-specific cytokine responses as well as the response to long-term endotoxin administration. Cytokine measurements revealed that the bolus injection led to significantly higher peaks for interleukin (IL)-8, while IL-10 reaches higher peaks during continuous administration. Moreover, the peak timing of all measured cytokines occurred later with continuous infusion. We identified three model parameters that significantly differed between the two administration methods. Monocyte activation of IL-10 was greater during the continuous infusion, while tumour necrosis factor α $ {\alpha} $ and IL-8 recovery rates were faster for the bolus injection. This suggests that a continuous infusion elicits a stronger, longer-lasting systemic reaction through increased stimulation of monocyte anti-inflammatory mediator production and decreased recovery of pro-inflammatory catalysts. Furthermore, the continuous infusion model exhibited prolonged inflammation with recurrent peaks resolving within 2 days during long-term (20-32 h) endotoxin administration.

A mathematical model of signalling molecule-mediated processes during regeneration of osteochondral defects after chondrocyte implantation.

Treating bone-cartilage defects is a fundamental clinical problem. The ability of damaged cartilage to self-repair is limited due to its avascularity. Left untreated, these defects can lead to osteoarthritis. Details of osteochondral defect repair are elusive, but animal models indicate healing occurs via an endochondral ossification-like process, similar to that in the growth plate. In the growth plate, the signalling molecules parathyroid hormone-related protein (PTHrP) and Indian Hedgehog (Ihh) form a feedback loop regulating chondrocyte hypertrophy, with Ihh inducing and PTHrP suppressing hypertrophy. To better understand this repair process and to explore the regulatory role of signalling molecules on the regeneration process, we formulate a reaction-diffusion mathematical model of osteochondral defect regeneration after chondrocyte implantation. The drivers of healing are assumed to be chondrocytes and osteoblasts, and their interaction via signalling molecules. We model cell proliferation, migration and chondrocyte hypertrophy, and matrix production and conversion, spatially and temporally. We further model nutrient and signalling molecule diffusion and their interaction with the cells. We consider the PTHrP-Ihh feedback loop as the backbone mechanisms but the model is flexible to incorporate extra signalling mechanisms if needed. Our mathematical model is able to represent repair of osteochondral defects, starting with cartilage formation throughout the defect. This is followed by chondrocyte hypertrophy, matrix calcification and bone formation deep inside the defect, while cartilage at the surface is maintained and eventually separated from the deeper bone by a thin layer of calcified cartilage. The complete process requires around 48 months. A key highlight of the model demonstrates that the PTHrP-Ihh loop alone is insufficient and an extra mechanism is required to initiate chondrocyte hypertrophy, represented by a critical cartilage density. A parameter sensitivity study reveals that the timing of the repair process crucially depends on parameters, such as the critical cartilage density, and those describing the actions of PTHrP to suppress hypertrophy, such as its diffusion coefficient, threshold concentration and degradation rate.

Cross-disciplinary mathematical modelling to benefit healthcare - could clinical pharmacology play an enabling role?

Clinical pharmacology is often the nexus in any cross-disciplinary team that is seeking solutions for human healthcare issues. The use and application of real-world data and artificial intelligence to better understand our ecosystem has influenced our view at the world and how we do things. This has resulted in remarkable advancements in the healthcare space and development of personalized medicines with great attributes from the application of models and simulations, contributing to a more efficient healthcare development process. A cross-disciplinary symposium was held in December 2023, whereby experts from different scientific disciplines engaged in a high-level discussion on the opportunities and challenges of mathematical models in different fields, possible future developments and decision making. A strong interlink amongst the disciplines represented was apparent, with clinical pharmacology identified as the one which integrates various scientific disciplines. Deliberate and strategic cross-disciplinary dialogues are required to break out of the silos and implement integration for efficiency and cost-effectiveness of novel interventions.

A scoping review on bovine tuberculosis highlights the need for novel data streams and analytical approaches to curb zoonotic diseases.

Zoonotic diseases represent a significant societal challenge in terms of their health and economic impacts. One Health approaches to managing zoonotic diseases are becoming more prevalent, but require novel thinking, tools and cross-disciplinary collaboration. Bovine tuberculosis (bTB) is one example of a costly One Health challenge with a complex epidemiology involving humans, domestic animals, wildlife and environmental factors, which require sophisticated collaborative approaches. We undertook a scoping review of multi-host bTB epidemiology to identify trends in species publication focus, methodologies, and One Health approaches. We aimed to identify knowledge gaps where novel research could provide insights to inform control policy, for bTB and other zoonoses. The review included 532 articles. We found different levels of research attention across episystems, with a significant proportion of the literature focusing on the badger-cattle-TB episystem, with far less attention given to tropical multi-host episystems. We found a limited number of studies focusing on management solutions and their efficacy, with very few studies looking at modelling exit strategies. Only a small number of studies looked at the effect of human disturbances on the spread of bTB involving wildlife hosts. Most of the studies we reviewed focused on the effect of badger vaccination and culling on bTB dynamics with few looking at how roads, human perturbations and habitat change may affect wildlife movement and disease spread. Finally, we observed a lack of studies considering the effect of weather variables on bTB spread, which is particularly relevant when studying zoonoses under climate change scenarios. Significant technological and methodological advances have been applied to bTB episystems, providing explicit insights into its spread and maintenance across populations. We identified a prominent bias towards certain species and locations. Generating more high-quality empirical data on wildlife host distribution and abundance, high-resolution individual behaviours and greater use of mathematical models and simulations are key areas for future research. Integrating data sources across disciplines, and a "virtuous cycle" of well-designed empirical data collection linked with mathematical and simulation modelling could provide additional gains for policy-makers and managers, enabling optimised bTB management with broader insights for other zoonoses.