Niche differentiation, reproductive interference, and range expansion.

Understanding species distributions and predicting future range shifts requires considering all relevant abiotic factors and biotic interactions. Resource competition has received the most attention, but reproductive interference is another widespread biotic interaction that could influence species ranges. Rubyspot damselflies (Hetaerina spp.) exhibit a biogeographic pattern consistent with the hypothesis that reproductive interference has limited range expansion. Here, we use ecological niche models to evaluate whether this pattern could have instead been caused by niche differentiation. We found evidence for climatic niche differentiation, but the species that encounters the least reproductive interference has one of the narrowest and most peripheral niches. These findings strengthen the case that reproductive interference has limited range expansion and also provide a counterexample to the idea that release from negative species interactions triggers niche expansion. We propose that release from reproductive interference enables species to expand in range while specializing on the habitats most suitable for breeding.

Global spatial distribution of Prosopis juliflora - one of the world's worst 100 invasive alien species under changing climate using multiple machine learning models.

Climate change is one of the factors contributing to the spread of invasive alien species. As a result, it is critical to investigate potential invasion dynamics on a global scale in the face of climate change. We used updated occurrence data, bioclimatic variables, and Köppen-Geiger climatic zones to better understand the climatic niche dynamics of Prosopis juliflora L. (Fabaceae). In this study, we first compared several algorithms-MaxEnt, generalized linear model (GLM), artificial neural network (ANN), generalized boosted model (GBM), generalized additive model (GAM), and random forest (RF)-to investigate the relationships between species-environment and climate for mesquite. We identified the global climate niche similarity sites (NSSs) using the coalesce approach. This study focused on the current and future climatic suitability of P. juliflora under two global circulation models (GCMs) and two climatic scenarios, i.e., Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), 4.5 and 8.5, for 2050 and 2070, respectively. Sensitivity, specificity, true skill statistic (TSS), kappa coefficient, and correlation were used to evaluate model performance. Among the tested models, the machine learning algorithm random forest (RF) demonstrated the highest accuracy. The vast swaths of currently uninvaded land on multiple continents are ideal habitats for invasion. Approximately 9.65% of the area is highly suitable for the establishment of P. juliflora. Consequently, certain regions in the Americas, Africa, Asia, Europe, and Oceania have become particularly vulnerable to invasion. In relation to RCPs, we identified suitable area changes (expansion, loss, and stability). The findings of this study show that NSSs and RCPs increase the risk of invasion in specific parts of the world. Our findings contribute to a cross-border continental conservation effort to combat P. juliflora  expansion into new potential invasion areas.

Combined effects of land-use intensification and plant invasion on native communities.

Land-use intensification (LUI) and biological invasions are two of the most important global change pressures driving biodiversity loss. However, their combined impacts on biological communities have been seldom explored, which may result in misleading ecological assessments or mitigation actions. Based on an extensive field survey of 445 paired invaded and control plots of coastal vegetation in SW Spain, we explored the joint effects of LUI (agricultural and urban intensification) and invasion on the taxonomic and functional richness, mean plant height and leaf area of native plants. Our survey covered five invasive species with contrasting functional similarity and competitive ability in relation to the native community. We modeled the response of native communities for the overall and invader-specific datasets, and determined if invader-native functional differences could influence the combined impacts of LUI and invasion. Overall, we found that urban intensification reduced taxonomic richness more strongly at invaded plots (synergistic interactive effects). In contrast, functional richness loss caused by urban intensification was less pronounced at invaded plots (antagonistic interactive effects). Overall models showed also that urban intensification led to reduced mean leaf area, while agriculture was linked to higher mean plant height. When exploring invader-specific models, we observed that the combined effects of agricultural and urban intensification with invasion were heterogeneous. At invaded plots, invader-native functional differences accounted for part of this variability. Our findings demonstrate the importance of considering the interactive effects of global change pressures for a better assessment and management of ecosystems.

Climate matching drives spread rate but not establishment success in recent unintentional bird introductions.

Understanding factors driving successful invasions is one of the cornerstones of invasion biology. Bird invasions have been frequently used as study models, and the foundation of current knowledge largely relies on species purposefully introduced during the 19th and early 20th centuries in countries colonized by Europeans. However, the profile of exotic bird species has changed radically in the last decades, as birds are now mostly introduced into the invasion process through unplanned releases from the worldwide pet and avicultural trade. Here we assessed the role of the three main drivers of invasion success (i.e., event-, species-, and location-level factors) on the establishment and spatial spread of exotic birds using an unprecedented dataset recorded throughout the last 100 y in the Iberian Peninsula. Our multimodel inference phylogenetic approach showed that the barriers that need to be overcome by a species to successfully establish or spread are not the same. Whereas establishment is largely related to event-level factors, apparently stochastic features of the introduction (time since first introduction and propagule pressure) and to the origin of introduced species (wild-caught species show higher invasiveness than captive-bred ones), the spread across the invaded region seems to be determined by the extent to which climatic conditions in the new region resemble those of the species' native range. Overall, these results contrast with what we learned from successful deliberate introductions and highlight that different management interventions should apply at different invasion stages, the most efficient strategies being related to event-level factors.

Deciphering the drivers of negative species-genetic diversity correlation in Alpine amphibians.

The evolutionary and ecological importance of neutral and adaptive genetic diversity is widely recognized. Nevertheless, genetic diversity is rarely assessed for conservation planning, which often implicitly assumes a positive correlation between species and genetic diversity. Multiple drivers can cause the co-variation between the genetic diversity of one species and the richness of the whole communities, and explicit tests are needed to identify the processes that can determine species-genetic diversity correlations (SGDCs). Here, we tested whether intrapopulation genetic diversity (at neutral loci) and species richness co-vary in the amphibian communities of a southern Alpine region (Trentino, Italy), using the common frog (Rana temporaria) as focal species for the study of genetic diversity. We also analysed ecological similarity, niche overlap and interspecific interactions between the species, to unravel the processes determining SGDC. The neutral genetic diversity of common frogs was negatively related to species richness. The negative SGDC was probably due to an opposite influence of environmental gradients on the two levels of biodiversity, since the focal species and the other amphibians differ in ecological preferences, particularly in terms of thermal optimum. Conversely, we did not find evidence for a role of interspecific interactions in the negative SGDC. Our findings stress that species richness cannot be used as a universal proxy for genetic diversity, and only combining SGDC with analyses on the determinants of biodiversity can allow to identify the processes determining the relationships between genetic and species diversity.

Influence of niche similarity on hybridization between Myriophyllum sibiricum and M. spicatum.

The impact of ecological factors on natural hybridization is of widespread interest. Here, we asked whether climate niche influences hybridization between the two closely related plant species Myriophyllum sibiricum and M. spicatum. Eight microsatellite loci and two chloroplast fragments were used to investigate the occurrence of hybridization between these two species in two co-occurring regions: north-east China (NEC) and the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP). The climate niches of the species were quantified by principal component analysis with bioclimatic data, and niche comparisons were performed between the two species in each region. Reciprocal hybridization was observed, and M. sibiricum was favoured as the maternal species. Furthermore, hybrids were rare in NEC but common in the QTP. Accordingly, in NEC, the two species were climatically distinct, and hybrids only occurred in the narrow geographical or ecological transition zone, whereas in the QTP, obvious niche overlaps were found for the two species, and hybrids occurred in multiple contact zones. This association between hybridization pattern and climate niche similarity suggests that the level of hybridization was promoted by niche overlap. Compared with the parental species, similar climate niches were found for the hybrid populations in the QTP, indicating that other environmental factors rather than climate were important for hybrid persistence. Our findings highlight the significance of climate niche with respect to hybridization patterns in plants.

Integrative Taxonomy of Armeria arenaria (Plumbaginaceae), with a Special Focus on the Putative Subspecies Endemic to the Apennines.

Three subspecies of Armeria arenaria are reported from Italy, two of which are considered endemic to the Apennines. The taxonomic value of these two taxa (A. arenaria subsp. marginata and A. arenaria subsp. apennina) is unclear. Moreover, the relationships between A. arenaria subsp. praecox and Northern Italian populations-currently ascribed to A. arenaria subsp. arenaria-have never been addressed. Accordingly, we used an integrated taxonomic approach, including morphometry, seed morpho-colorimetry, karyology, molecular systematics (psbA-trnH, trnQ-rps16, trnF-trnL, trnL-rpl32, and ITS region), and comparative niche analysis. According to our results, French-Northern Italian populations are clearly distinct from Apennine populations. In the first group, there is evidence which allows the recognition of A. arenaria s.str. (not occurring in Italy) and A. arenaria subsp. praecox. In the second group, the two putative taxa endemic to the Northern Apennines cannot be separated, so a single subspecies is here recognized: A. arenaria subsp. marginata.

An Integrated Taxonomic Approach Points towards a Single-Species Hypothesis for Santolina (Asteraceae) in Corsica and Sardinia.

Santolina is a plant genus of dwarf aromatic shrubs that includes about 26 species native to the western Mediterranean Basin. In Corsica and Sardinia, two of the main islands of the Mediterranean, Santolina corsica (tetraploid) and S. insularis (hexaploid) are reported. Along with the cultivated pentaploid S. chamaecyparissus, these species form a group of taxa that is hard to distinguish only by morphology. Molecular (using ITS, trnH-psbA, trnL-trnF, trnQ-rps16, rps15-ycf1, psbM-trnD, and trnS-trnG), cypsela morpho-colorimetric, morphometric, and niche similarity analyses were conducted to investigate the diversity of plants belonging to this species group. Our results confute the current taxonomic hypothesis and suggest considering S. corsica and S. insularis as a single species. Moreover, molecular and morphometric results highlight the strong affinity between S. chamaecyparissus and the Santolina populations endemic to Corsica and Sardinia. Finally, the populations from south-western Sardinia, due to their high differentiation in the studied plastid markers and the different climatic niche with respect to all the other populations, could be considered as an evolutionary significant unit.

Extensive Sympatry and Frequent Hybridization of Ecologically Divergent Aquatic Plants on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Hybridization has fascinated biologists in recent centuries for its evolutionary importance, especially in plants. Hybrid zones are commonly located in regions across environmental gradients due to more opportunities to contact and ecological heterogeneity. For aquatic taxa, intrazonal character makes broad overlapping regions in intermediate environments between related species. However, we have limited information on the hybridization pattern of aquatic taxa in alpines, especially submerged macrophytes. In this study, we aimed to test the hypotheses that niche overlap and hybridization might be extensive in related aquatic plants across an altitudinal gradient. We evaluated the niche overlap in three related species pairs on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau and assessed the spatial pattern of hybrid populations. Obvious niche overlap and common hybridization were revealed in all three pairs of related aquatic plants. The plateau edge and river basins were broad areas for the sympatry of divergent taxa, where a large proportion of hybrid populations occurred. Hybrids are also discretely distributed in diverse habitats on the plateau. Differences in the extent of niche overlap, genetic incompatibility and phylogeographic history might lead to variation differences in hybridization patterns among the three species pairs. Our results suggested that plateau areas are a hotspot for ecologically divergent aquatic species to contact and mate and implied that hybridization may be important for the freshwater biodiversity of highlands.

Evaluating the Effects of Climate Change on Spatial Aggregation of Giant Pandas and Sympatric Species in a Mountainous Landscape.

Understanding how climate change alters the spatial aggregation of sympatric species is important for biodiversity conservation. Previous studies usually focused on spatial shifting of species but paid little attention to changes in interspecific competitions under climate change. In this study, we evaluated the potential effects of climate change on the spatial aggregation of giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) and three sympatric competitive species (i.e., black bears (Ursus thibetanus), golden takins (Budorcas taxicolor), and wild boars (Sus scrofa)) in the Qinling Mountains, China. We employed an ensemble species distribution modeling (SDM) approach to map the current spatial distributions of giant pandas and sympatric animals and projected them to future climate scenarios in 2050s and 2070s. We then examined the range overlapping and niche similarities of these species under different climate change scenarios. The results showed that the distribution areas of giant pandas and sympatric species would decrease remarkably under future climate changes. The shifting directions of the overlapping between giant pandas and sympatric species vary under different climate change scenarios. In conclusion, future climate change greatly shapes the spatial overlapping pattern of giant pandas and sympatric species in the Qinling Mountains, while interspecific competition would be intensified under both mild and worst-case climate change scenarios.

Improved prediction of Canada lynx distribution through regional model transferability and data efficiency.

The application of species distribution models (SDMs) to areas outside of where a model was created allows informed decisions across large spatial scales, yet transferability remains a challenge in ecological modeling. We examined how regional variation in animal-environment relationships influenced model transferability for Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis), with an additional conservation aim of modeling lynx habitat across the northwestern United States. Simultaneously, we explored the effect of sample size from GPS data on SDM model performance and transferability. We used data from three geographically distinct Canada lynx populations in Washington (n = 17 individuals), Montana (n = 66), and Wyoming (n = 10) from 1996 to 2015. We assessed regional variation in lynx-environment relationships between these three populations using principal components analysis (PCA). We used ensemble modeling to develop SDMs for each population and all populations combined and assessed model prediction and transferability for each model scenario using withheld data and an extensive independent dataset (n = 650). Finally, we examined GPS data efficiency by testing models created with sample sizes of 5%-100% of the original datasets. PCA results indicated some differences in environmental characteristics between populations; models created from individual populations showed differential transferability based on the populations' similarity in PCA space. Despite population differences, a single model created from all populations performed as well, or better, than each individual population. Model performance was mostly insensitive to GPS sample size, with a plateau in predictive ability reached at ~30% of the total GPS dataset when initial sample size was large. Based on these results, we generated well-validated spatial predictions of Canada lynx distribution across a large portion of the species' southern range, with precipitation and temperature the primary environmental predictors in the model. We also demonstrated substantial redundancy in our large GPS dataset, with predictive performance insensitive to sample sizes above 30% of the original.

Mapping the environmental suitability of etiological agent and tick vectors of Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever.

Crimean-Congo hemorrhagic fever (CCHF) is one of the most important public health threats in many regions across Africa, Europe, and Asia. This study used ecological niche modeling analyses to map the environmental suitability of both CCHF virus (CCHFV), and its tick vectors (Amblyomma variegatum, Dermacentor marginatus, Hyalomma marginatum, Hyalomma rufipes, Hyalomma truncatum, Rhipicephalus appendiculatus, and Rhipicephalus evertsi evertsi) in the Old World countries. The CCHFV was anticipated to occur with high environmental suitability across southern and central Europe, northwestern Africa, central Asia, and western Mediterranean region. Ecological niche models of tick vectors anticipated diverse patterns based on the tick species in question; D. marginatus and H. marginatum showed high environmental suitability in southern and central Europe, and North Africa. The remaining vector species were anticipated to occur in Africa. All models were statistically robust and performed better than random (P < 0.001). Finally, we tested the niche similarities between CCHFV and diverse tick vectors and could not reject the null hypotheses of niche similarity in all vector-virus combinations (P > 0.05) except the combinations of CCHFV with A. variegatum, R. evertsi evertsi and R. appendiculatus (P < 0.05).

Co-occurrence or dependence? Using spatial analyses to explore the interaction between palms and Rhodnius triatomines.

BACKGROUND: Triatomine bugs are responsible for the vectorial transmission of the parasite Trypanosoma cruzi, the etiological agent of Chagas disease, a zoonosis affecting 10 million people and with 25 million at risk of infection. Triatomines are associated with particular habitats that offer shelter and food. Several triatomine species of the genus Rhodnius have a close association with palm crowns, where bugs can obtain microclimatic stability and blood from the associated fauna. The Rhodnius-palm interaction has been reported in several places of Central and South America. However, the association in the distributions of Rhodnius species and palms has not been explicitly determined. METHODS: Niches of Rhodnius and palm species with reports of Rhodnius spp. infestation were estimated by minimum volume ellipsoids and compared in the environmental and the geographical space to identify niche similarity. Rhodnius spp. niche models were run with the palm distributions as environmental variables to determine if palm presence could be considered a predictor of Rhodnius spp. distributions, improving model performance. RESULTS: Niche similarity was found between all the studied Rhodnius and palm species showing variation in niche overlap among the involved species. Most of the areas with suitable conditions for Rhodnius species were also suitable to palm species, being favorable for more than one palm species in the majority of locations. Performance was similar in Rhodnius niche models with and without palm distributions. However, when palm distributions were included, their contribution to the model was high, being the most important variable in some Rhodnius spp. CONCLUSIONS: To our knowledge, this is the first time that the distributions of Rhodnius and palm species were compared on a large scale and their spatial association explicitly studied. We found spatial association between Rhodnius and palm species can be explained because both organisms shared environmental requirements, and most of the areas with suitable conditions for Rhodnius species were also suitable to several palm species. Rhodnius presence would not be restricted to palm presence but the zones with palm presence could be more suitable for Rhodnius spp. presence.

Mapping Brazilian spotted fever: Linking etiological agent, vectors, and hosts.

Brazilian spotted fever (BSF) is a highly lethal disease in southeastern Brazil. BSF is caused by the bacterium Rickettsia rickettsii and is transmitted by the bites of the tick of the genus Amblyomma. The spatial distribution of BSF risk areas is not well known in the country given the complexity of the transmission cycle. This study used the ecological niche modeling (ENM) approach to anticipate the potential distribution of the etiological agent (Rickettsia rickettsii), vectors (Amblyomma sculptum and A. dubitatum), and hosts (Hydrochoerus hydrochaeris, Didelphis aurita, and D. marsupialis) of BSF in Brazil. We compiled occurrence records for all vectors, hosts, and BSF from our own field surveillance, online repositories, and literature. ENM identified BSF risk areas in southeastern and southern Brazil, and anticipated other dispersed suitable areas in the western, central, and northeastern coast regions of Brazil. Tick vectors and mammalian hosts were confined to these same areas; however, host species showed broader suitability in northern Brazil. All species ENMs performed significantly better than random expectations. We also tested the BSF prediction based on 253 additional independent cases identified in our surveillance; the model anticipated 251 out of 253 of these independent cases. Background similarity tests comparing the ENMs of R. rickettsii, tick vectors, and mammalian hosts were unable to reject null hypotheses of niche similarity. Finally, we observed close coincidence between independent BSF cases, and areas suitable for combinations of vectors and hosts, reflecting the ability of these model pairs to anticipate the distribution of BSF cases across Brazil.

Niche of main woody plant populations of Pterocarya stenoptera community in riparian zone of Lijiang River, China.

To understand the niche characteristics of main woody species in Pterocarya stenoptera community, we investigated P. stenoptera communities in riparian zone of Lijiang River, China. The niche characteristics of main species in tree layers and shrub layers were quantified with the indices of Levins niche breadth, Shannon niche breadth, Schoener niche similarities and Pianka niche overlap. The results showed that P. stenoptera in the tree layer, and Ficus abelii and Morus alba in the shrub layer had higher niche breadth than other species. The species with larger importance values generally had larger niche breadth, but the rank orders of which were not exactly the same. The niche similarity of main populations in the tree layer was generally smaller than that in the shrub layer. The mean value of niche similarity of main populations in the tree layer and shrub layer was 0.151 and 0.236, respectively. There was a low degree of niche similarity among species within the community, indicating that they had a low similarity in resource use. The niche overlap of main populations in the tree layer was generally smaller than that in the shrub layer, with the mean value of niche overlap of main populations in the tree layer and shrub layer being 0.217 and 0.273, respectively. The niche overlap between the main species in the community was relatively lower. There was no significant correlation between niche breadth and niche similarity. The species with larger niche breadth often had more opportunities to overlap with other species. However, their overlap value was not necessarily larger. Larger niche similarity was often associated with higher degrees of niche overlap. The P. stenoptera community in riparian zone of Lijiang River was the climax community, the relationship among species was relatively stable, the population regeneration was very slow, and the development trend of this community was declining in the future.

American trees shift their niches when invading Western Europe: evaluating invasion risks in a changing climate.

Four North American trees are becoming invasive species in Western Europe: Acer negundo, Prunus serotina, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia. However, their present and future potential risks of invasion have not been yet evaluated. Here, we assess niche shifts between the native and invasive ranges and the potential invasion risk of these four trees in Western Europe. We estimated niche conservatism in a multidimensional climate space using niche overlap Schoener's D, niche equivalence, and niche similarity tests. Niche unfilling and expansion were also estimated in analogous and nonanalogous climates. The capacity for predicting the opposite range between the native and invasive areas (transferability) was estimated by calibrating species distribution models (SDMs) on each range separately. Invasion risk was estimated using SDMs calibrated on both ranges and projected for 2050 climatic conditions. Our results showed that native and invasive niches were not equivalent with low niche overlap for all species. However, significant similarity was found between the invasive and native ranges of Q. rubra and R. pseudoacacia. Niche expansion was lower than 15% for all species, whereas unfilling ranged from 7 to 56% when it was measured using the entire climatic space and between 5 and 38% when it was measured using analogous climate only. Transferability was low for all species. SDMs calibrated over both ranges projected high habitat suitability in Western Europe under current and future climates. Thus, the North American and Western European ranges are not interchangeable irrespective of the studied species, suggesting that other environmental and/or biological characteristics are shaping their invasive niches. The current climatic risk of invasion is especially high for R. pseudoacacia and A. negundo. In the future, the highest risks of invasion for all species are located in Central and Northern Europe, whereas the risk is likely to decrease in the Mediterranean basin.

Leishmaniasis transmission: distribution and coarse-resolution ecology of two vectors and two parasites in Egypt

Introduction: In past decades, leishmaniasis burden has been low across Egypt; however, changing environment and land use has placed several parts of the country at risk. As a consequence, leishmaniasis has become a particularly difficult health problem, both for local inhabitants and for multinational military personnel. Methods: To evaluate coarse-resolution aspects of the ecology of leishmaniasis transmission, collection records for sandflies and Leishmania species were obtained from diverse sources. To characterize environmental variation across the country, we used multitemporal Land Surface Temperature (LST) and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for 2005-2011. Ecological niche models were generated using MaxEnt, and results were analyzed using background similarity tests to assess whether associations among vectors and parasites (i.e., niche similarity) can be detected across broad geographic regions. Results: We found niche similarity only between one vector species and its corresponding parasite species (i.e., Phlebotomus papatasi with Leishmania major), suggesting that geographic ranges of zoonotic cutaneous leishmaniasis and its potential vector may overlap, but under distinct environmental associations. Other associations (e.g., P. sergenti with L. major) were not supported. Mapping suitable areas for each species suggested that northeastern Egypt is particularly at risk because both parasites have potential to circulate. Conclusions: Ecological niche modeling approaches can be used as a first-pass assessment of vector-parasite interactions, offering useful insights into constraints on the geography of transmission patterns of leishmaniasis. .