Superiority of ceftazidime off-label high-dose regimen in PK/PD target attainment during treatment of extensively drug-resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections in cancer patients.

AIM: The objective of this study was to evaluate off-label high-dose ceftazidime population pharmacokinetics in cancer patients with suspected or proven extensively drug-resistant (XDR) Pseudomonas aeruginosa infections and then to compare the achievement of the pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) target after standard and off-label high-dose regimens using population model-based simulations. A further aim was to clinically observe the occurrence of adverse effects during the off-label high-dose ceftazidime treatment. METHODS: In patients treated with off-label high-dose ceftazidime (3 g every 6 h), blood samples were collected and ceftazidime serum levels measured using LC-MS/MS. A pharmacokinetic population model was developed using a nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach and Monte Carlo simulations were then used to compare standard and high-dose regimens for PK/PD target attainment. RESULTS: A total of 14 cancer patients with serious infection suspected of XDR P. aeruginosa aetiology were eligible for PK analysis. XDR P. aeruginosa was confirmed in 10 patients as the causative pathogen. Population ceftazidime volume of distribution was 13.23 L, while clearance started at the baseline of 1.48 L/h and increased by 0.0076 L/h with each 1 mL/min/1.73 m2 of eGFR. High-dose regimen showed significantly higher probability of target attainment (i.e., 86% vs. 56% at MIC of 32 mg/L). This was translated into a very low mortality rate of 20%. Only one case of reversible neurological impairment was observed. CONCLUSION: We proved the superiority of the ceftazidime off-label high-dose regimen in PK/PD target attainment with very low occurrence of adverse effects. The off-label high-dose regimen should be used to optimize treatment of XDR P. aeruginosa infections.

Population pharmacokinetics of mycophenolic acid in paediatric patients.

Mycophenolic acid (MPA) is widely used in paediatric kidney transplant patients and sometimes prescribed for additional indications. Population pharmacokinetic or pharmacodynamic modelling has been frequently used to characterize the fixed, random and covariate effects of MPA in adult patients. However, MPA population pharmacokinetic data in the paediatric population have not been systematically summarized. The objective of this narrative review was to provide an up-to-date critique of currently available paediatric MPA population pharmacokinetic models, with emphases on modelling techniques, pharmacological findings and clinical relevance. PubMed and EMBASE were searched from inception of database to May 2020, where a total of 11 studies have been identified representing kidney transplant (n = 4), liver transplant (n = 1), haematopoietic stem cell transplant (n = 1), idiopathic nephrotic syndrome (n = 2), systemic lupus erythematosus (n = 2), and a combined population consisted of kidney, liver and haematopoietic stem cell transplant patients (n = 1). Critical analyses were provided in the context of MPA absorption, distribution, metabolism, excretion and bioavailability in this paediatric database. Comparisons to adult patients were also provided. With respect to clinical utility, Bayesian estimation models (n = 6) with acceptable accuracy and precision for MPA exposure determination have also been identified and systematically evaluated. Overall, our analyses have identified unique features of MPA clinical pharmacology in the paediatric population, while recognizing several gaps that still warrant further investigations. This review can be used by pharmacologists and clinicians for improving MPA pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic modelling and patient care.

Which Analysis Approach Is Adequate to Leverage Clinical Microdialysis Data? A Quantitative Comparison to Investigate Exposure and Reponse Exemplified by Levofloxacin.

PURPOSE: Systematic comparison of analysis methods of clinical microdialysis data for impact on target-site drug exposure and response. METHODS: 39 individuals received a 500 mg levofloxacin short-term infusion followed by 24-h dense sampling in plasma and microdialysate collection in interstitial space fluid (ISF). ISF concentrations were leveraged using non-compartmental (NCA) and compartmental analysis (CA) via (ii) relative recovery correction at midpoint of the collection interval (midpoint-NCA, midpoint-CA) and (ii) dialysate-based integrals of time (integral-CA). Exposure and adequacy of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) therapy via pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic target-attainment (PTA) analysis were compared between approaches. RESULTS: Individual AUCISF estimates strongly varied for midpoint-NCA and midpoint-CA (≥52.3%CV) versus integral-CA (≤32.9%CV) owing to separation of variability in PK parameters (midpoint-CA = 46.5%-143%CVPK, integral-CA = 26.4%-72.6%CVPK) from recovery-related variability only in integral-CA (41.0%-50.3%CVrecovery). This also led to increased variability of AUCplasma for midpoint-CA (56.0%CV) versus midpoint-NCA and integral-CA (≤33.0%CV), and inaccuracy of predictive model performance of midpoint-CA in plasma (visual predictive check). PTA analysis translated into 33% of evaluated patient cases being at risk of incorrectly rejecting recommended dosing regimens at CAP-related epidemiological cut-off values. CONCLUSIONS: Integral-CA proved most appropriate to characterise clinical pharmacokinetics- and microdialysis-related variability. Employing this knowledge will improve the understanding of drug target-site PK for therapeutic decision-making.

Population pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of artesunate in patients with artemisinin sensitive and resistant infections in Southern Myanmar.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinins are the most effective anti-malarial drugs for uncomplicated and severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. However, widespread artemisinin resistance in the Greater Mekong Region of Southeast Asia is threatening the possibility to control and eliminate malaria. This work aimed to evaluate the pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic properties of artesunate and its active metabolite, dihydroartemisinin, in patients with sensitive and resistant falciparum infections in Southern Myanmar. In addition, a simple nomogram previously developed to identify artemisinin resistant malaria infections was evaluated. METHODS: Fifty-three (n = 53) patients were recruited and received daily oral artesunate monotherapy (4 mg/kg) for 7 days. Frequent artesunate and dihydroartemisinin plasma concentration measurements and parasite microscopy counts were obtained and evaluated using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. RESULTS: The absorption of artesunate was best characterized by a transit-compartment (n = 3) model, followed by one-compartment disposition models for artesunate and dihydroartemisinin. The drug-dependent parasite killing effect of dihydroartemisinin was described using an Emax function, with a mixture model discriminating between artemisinin sensitive and resistant parasites. Overall, 56% of the studied population was predicted to have resistant malaria infections. Application of the proposed nomogram to identify artemisinin-resistant malaria infections demonstrated an overall sensitivity of 90% compared to 55% with the traditional day-3 positivity test. CONCLUSION: The pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic properties of artesunate and dihydroartemisinin were well-characterized with a mixture model to differentiate between drug sensitive and resistant infections in these patients. More than half of all patients recruited in this study had artemisinin-resistant infections. The relatively high sensitivity of the proposed nomogram highlights its potential clinical usefulness.

The pharmacokinetics of intravenous ketorolac in children aged 2 months to 16 years: A population analysis.

BACKGROUND: Intravenous ketorolac is commonly administered to children for the control of postoperative pain. An effect site EC50 for analgesia of 0.37 mg. L-1 is described in adults. AIMS: The aim of this study was to review age- and weight-related effects on ketorolac pharmacokinetic parameters in children and current dosing schedules. METHODS: Pooled intravenous ketorolac (0.5 mg. kg-1 ) concentration-time data in children aged 2 months to 16 years were analyzed using nonlinear mixed-effects models. Allometry was used to scale to a 70 kg person. RESULTS: There were 64 children aged 2 months to 16 years (641 plasma concentrations) available for analysis. A two-compartment mammillary model was used to describe pharmacokinetics. Clearance was 2.53 (CV 45.9%) L. h-1. 70 kg-1 and intercompartment clearance was 4.43 (CV 95.6%) L. h-1. 70 kg-1 . Both central (V1) and peripheral (V2) volumes of distribution decreased with age over the first few years of postnatal life to reach V1 6.89 (CV 30.3%) L. 70 kg-1 and V2 5.53 (CV 47.6%) L. 70 kg-1 . CONCLUSION: Clearance, expressed as L. h-1. kg-1 , decreased with age from infancy. A dosing regimen of 0.5 mg. kg-1 every 6 hours maintains a trough concentration larger than 0.37 mg. L-1 in children 9 months to 16 years of age. This dosing regimen is consistent with current recommendations.

Body weight, gender and pregnancy affect enantiomer-specific ketorolac pharmacokinetics.

AIMS: Although ketorolac analgesia is linked only to the S-enantiomer, there is limited information on the stereo-selective pharmacokinetics of this agent. We studied the stereo-selective pharmacokinetics of ketorolac in a pooled dataset of two studies, with women at delivery and 4-5 months postpartum, and males and nonpregnant females. METHODS: Nonlinear mixed-effect modelling was used to evaluate the stereo-selective pharmacokinetics of ketorolac tromethamine after a single intravenous injection immediately after delivery (n = 41), 4-5 months postpartum (n = 8, paired), and in male (n = 12) and nonpregnant female (n = 14) subjects. All of the males and six of the nonpregnant females were recruited from another study, in which they were undergoing blood sampling for 24 h. All remaining cases underwent blood sampling for 8 h. RESULTS: For both the R- and S-enantiomers, body weight affected ketorolac clearance. In addition, clearance for both enantiomers was 36% [95% confidence interval (CI) 15%, 58%] higher in male than in female subjects of the same body weight, and 55% (95% CI 33%, 78%) higher in women at delivery than in nonpregnant women of the same body weight. Women at delivery also had a 27% (95% CI 8%, 46%) higher distribution volume than nonpregnant women. The proportional effects of the covariates were not significantly different for the two ketorolac enantiomers. CONCLUSIONS: Besides the anticipated impact of body weight on clearance, R- and S-ketorolac clearance is increased in male subjects and in women at delivery. To reach an exposure equivalent to that in nonpregnant women, males should receive a 36% increased ketorolac dose and pregnant women a 55% increased dose, in addition to a dose adjustment by body weight.

Population pharmacokinetics and Bayesian estimation of tacrolimus exposure in Chinese liver transplant patients.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES: Tacrolimus (TAC) is widely used as part of immunosuppressive regimens. There is great interindividual variation on the disposition of TAC. The aim of this study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic (PPK) model for Chinese liver transplant patients and evaluate genetic polymorphism and other possible factors on the PK parameters. The exposure of TAC is to be estimated through Bayesian modelling. METHODS: A total of 47 sets of rich-time PK and 1234 conventional therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM) data were collected from 125 Chinese liver transplant patients. The pathophysiological data of these patients were recorded. CYP3A5*3 and ABCB1 genotypes were determined for each patient. The PPK model for TAC was established by nonlinear mixed-effects modelling (nonmem). The impact of pathophysiology and genotype on PPK parameters was evaluated. Bayesian estimators for the area under concentration-time curve (AUC) of TAC were validated. RESULTS: A two-compartment model with lag time was found to be the most suitable model for the pooled full PK and TDM data for Chinese liver transplant patients. The CL/F, V2 /F, Q/F, V3 /F, Ka and lag time were 17.4±0.81 L/h, 165±44.1 L, 54.9±25.8L/h, 594±87.5 L, 0.51±0.095 L/h and 1.57±0.34 h. Post-operative day (POD), creatinine clearance (CLcr) and ABCB1 C3435T genotypes were found to have significant influences on CL/F (P<.01). ABCB1 C3435T genotypes showed a significant correlation with V2 /F (P<.01). C0 -C2 and C0 -C2 -C4 were shown to be suitable for the estimation of AUC in Chinese liver transplant patients. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: A PPK model for TAC was established successfully in Chinese liver transplant patients. POD, CLcr and ABCB1 C3435T genotypes were shown to have significant effects on CL/F. The AUC of TAC in Chinese liver transplant patients could be estimated through Bayesian modelling, based on which individualized immunosuppressive regimens can be designed.

Tacrolimus population pharmacokinetics according to CYP3A5 genotype and clinical factors in Chinese adult kidney transplant recipients.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVES: Tacrolimus is characterized by a narrow therapeutic index and a considerable inter- and intraindividual pharmacokinetic variability. The aim of our study was to develop a population pharmacokinetic model of tacrolimus in adult kidney transplant of Chinese patients, identify factors especially CYP3A5*3 genetic polymorphism that explain variability, and determine dosage regimens. METHODS: Pharmacogenomic data obtained from 83 Chinese kidney transplant patients treated with tacrolimus were determined using polymerase chain reaction-restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis. Trough blood concentration data were collected from all of the patients during the 12 months of post-transplantation days and were analysed using the nonlinear mixed-effects modelling program. After building the final model, 1000 bootstraps were performed to validate the final model. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION: A one-compartment model with first-order absorption and elimination adequately described the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus. In this study, we observed that POD, HCT and CYP3A5*3 genotype were determinant factors in CL/F and POD related with V/F of tacrolimus significantly. The final model with the clearance covariates was presented as: Cl/F=THETA(1)*EXP(THETA(4)*(83/POD))*(39.1/HCT)**THETA(5)*EXP(THETA(6)*CYP3A5), and the final model with the volume covariates was presented as: Vd/F=THETA(2)*POD**THETA(3). The Ka was fixed to 4.5 h-1 . WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: The HCT, CYP3A5*3 genetic polymorphism and POD contributed to the interindividual variability of oral tacrolimus in Chinese adult renal transplant patients.

Population pharmacokinetics of erlotinib in Japanese patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: This study aimed to elucidate the pharmacokinetics of erlotinib in Japanese patients with advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) and to investigate the relationship between erlotinib exposure and the occurrence of interstitial lung disease (ILD)-like events. METHODS: Population pharmacokinetics analysis was performed using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling software (NONMEM) based on 348 plasma samples from 97 patients obtained in two phase II clinical studies. Individual empirical Bayesian estimates (EBEs) of apparent oral clearance (CL/F) and Cmax were compared between the patients who developed and did not develop ILD-like events. RESULTS: A 1-compartment model with first-order absorption and first-order elimination was used to describe the plasma concentrations of erlotinib. The estimated population pharmacokinetics parameters were as follows: 4·71 L/h for CL/F, 163 L for apparent volume of distribution (Vc /F) and 1·97 h(-1) for absorption rate constant (Ka ). Total bilirubin (TBIL) and alpha 1-acid glycoprotein (AGP) were identified as statistically significant covariates for CL/F. No differences in CL/F and Cmax were observed between the patients with ILD-like events and those without ILD-like events. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSIONS: A population pharmacokinetics model of erlotinib was developed and validated in Japanese patients. There was no relationship between exposure of erlotinib before the occurrence of ILD-like events and the occurrence of ILD-like events when erlotinib was administered at the same dosage. The high plasma concentration of erlotinib reported in patients after the onset of ILD-like events may be explained by CL/F decrease which occurs along with increasing levels of AGP which was identified as a covariate for CL/F.

A model-based meta-analysis of the influence of factors that impact adherence to medications.

WHAT IS KNOWN AND OBJECTIVE: Several studies have investigated factors that may influence adherence for a given disease. The influence of disease on adherence has received limited attention. Less work has been conducted to investigate the influence of other factors in conjunction with disease on adherence. The aim of this study was to determine the independent influence of disease and other factors on adherence. METHODS: A literature search was conducted to retrieve adherence studies using medication event monitoring system devices. Studies were categorized into different therapeutic areas. Only the two most commonly studied therapeutic areas were selected. Pseudopatient-level data were extracted from each study. The extracted data were analysed using a model-based meta-analysis technique. Univariate and multivariate models were developed. Model selection was based on a likelihood ratio test and visual plots. RESULTS: The most commonly studied therapeutic areas were HIV and hypertension. The most commonly recorded adherence criterion was percentage of prescribed doses taken per day. Based on this adherence criterion, ultimately, 24 HIV papers and 12 hypertension papers were included for data extraction. The statistically significant factors were disease, age and dosing regimen. The independent influences of each factor on adherence were as follows: an increase in adherence of approximately 8% per 10-year increase of age, a 15-19% reduction from once to thrice daily dosing and that patients with HIV were 5% more adherent than those with hypertension. WHAT IS NEW AND CONCLUSION: Although the influence of disease on adherence was significant, it was of limited clinical significance in the diseases studied here. Adherence appears to improve with age and decline with more frequent dosing. Additionally, the influence of dosing regimen wanes with increasing age. These results should be treated as exploratory and require prospective assessment.

Population pharmacokinetics and covariate-based dosing individualization of voriconazole in lung transplant recipients.

This study aimed to explore pharmacokinetics of voriconazole and its covariates in lung transplant recipients using population approach in order to propose dosing individualization. Data from routine therapeutic drug monitoring in adult lung transplant recipients treated with oral voriconazole were analysed with a three-stage population pharmacokinetic model using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling. Monte Carlo simulations based on final voriconazole pharmacokinetic model were used to generate the theoretical distribution of pharmacokinetic profiles at various dosing regimens. A total of 78 voriconazole serum concentrations collected from 40 patients were included in pharmacokinetic analysis. The only significant covariate was age for voriconazole clearance. Population voriconazole apparent clearance started at 32.26 L/h and decreased by 0.021 L/h with each year of patient's age, while population apparent volume of distribution was 964.46 L. Based on this model, we have proposed an easy-to-use dosing regimen consisting of a loading dose of 400 mg every 12 h for the first 48 h of treatment followed by maintenance dose of 300 mg every 12 h in patients aged up to 59 years, or by maintenance dose of 200 mg every 12 h in patients aged above 59 years.

Vancomycin loading dose individualization in a population of obese patients undergoing haemodialysis based on population pharmacokinetic model.

This study aimed to develop a vancomycin population pharmacokinetic model in obese adult patients treated with intermittent haemodialysis and propose a model-based loading dose strategy ensuring attainment of newly recommended AUC-based PK/PD target. Retrospective cross-sectional analysis was performed among obese haemodialysis dependent adult patients treated with intravenous vancomycin. A pharmacokinetic population model was developed using a nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach and Monte Carlo simulations were used to identify the optimal loading dose for PK/PD target attainment during the first 48 h of treatment. Therapeutic drug monitoring data from 27 patients with a BMI of 30.2-52.9 kg/m2 were analysed. Among all tested variables, only LBM as a covariate of vancomycin Vd significantly improved the model, while vancomycin CL did not correlate with any of the tested variables. The median (IQR) value from the conditional mean of individual estimates of Vd and CL was 68.4 (56.6-84.2) L and 0.86 (0.79-0.90) L/h, respectively. To ensure optimal vancomycin exposure during the first 48 h of therapy, the vancomycin loading dose of 1500, 1750, 2000, 2250, 2500 and 2750 mg should be administered to obese patients with a lean body mass of ˂50, 50-60, 60-70, 70-80, 80-85 and >85 kg, respectively.

A positron emission tomography study in healthy volunteers to estimate mGluR5 receptor occupancy of AZD2066 - estimating occupancy in the absence of a reference region.

AZD2066 is a new chemical entity pharmacologically characterized as a selective, negative allosteric modulator of the metabotropic glutamate receptor subtype 5 (mGluR5). Antagonism of mGluR5 has been implicated in relation to various diseases such as anxiety, depression, and pain disorders. To support translation from preclinical results and previous experiences with this target in man, a positron emission tomography study was performed to estimate the relationship between AZD2066 plasma concentrations and receptor occupancy in the human brain, using the mGluR5 radioligand [(11)C]-ABP688. The study involved PET scans on 4 occasions in 6 healthy volunteers. The radioligand was given as a tracer dose alone and following oral treatment with different doses of AZD2066. The analysis was based on the total volume of distribution derived from each PET-assessment. A non-linear mixed effects model was developed where ten delineated brain regions of interest from all PET scans were included in one simultaneous fit. For comparison the analysis was also performed according to a method described previously by Lassen et al. (1995). The results of the analysis showed that the total volume of distribution decreased with increasing drug concentrations in all regions with an estimated Kipl of 1170 nM. Variability between individuals and occasions in non-displaceable volume of distribution could explain most of the variability in the total volume of distribution. The Lassen approach provided a similar estimate for Kipl, but the variability was exaggerated and difficult to interpret.

Population pharmacokinetic model-based dosing proposal for ampicillin prophylaxis in cardiac surgery patients with cardiopulmonary bypass.

The aim of this study was to describe and quantify pharmacokinetics of ampicillin used prophylactically in cardiac surgery both with and without cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) using population pharmacokinetic analysis in order to propose an optimal dosing strategy. Adult patients undergoing cardiac surgery and treated with prophylactic dose of 2 g ampicillin were enrolled to this prospective study. Blood samples were collected according to the study protocol and ampicillin plasma concentrations were measured using HPLC/UV system. A three-stage population pharmacokinetic model using nonlinear mixed-effects modelling approach was developed. Totally 273 blood samples obtained from 20 patients undergoing cardiac surgery with the use of the CPB and 20 patients without CPB use were analyzed. Two-comparmental model best fits ampicillin concentration-time data. Mean ± SD body weight-normalized ampicillin central and peripheral volume of distribution was 0.12 ± 0.02 L/kg and 0.15 ± 0.03 L/kg, respectively, while mean ± SD ampicillin clearance in typical patient with eGFR of 1.5 mL/s/1.73 m2 was 1.17 ± 0.05 L/h. The use of CPB did not significantly affect the pharmacokinetics of ampicillin. When administering 2 g of ampicillin before surgery, an additional dose should be administered to reach the PK/PD target of fT > MIC = 50% if the operation lasts longer than 430 min in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment, 320 min in patients with mild renal impairment, 220 min in patients with normal renal function status or 140 min in patients with an augmented renal clearance.

An integrative pharmacokinetic-cardiovascular physiology modelling approach based on in vivo dog studies including five reference compounds.

Cardiovascular (CV) effects represent a major safety issue during drug development. Typically, this risk is mitigated by preclinical in vivo CV studies, based on which measured CV readouts are analyzed independently. Here, we apply a regression approach to simultaneously integrate CV readouts, i.e., heart rate (HR), mean arterial pressure (MAP) and QT from five dog telemetry studies. These CV studies comprise data on verapamil, captopril, dofetilide, pimobendan, and formoterol, and are combined with the respective dog pharmacokinetic (PK) profiles. A published PK/CV model structure for rats is extended by a semi-mechanistic parameterization of the interaction between HR and QT specific to dogs. This semi-mechanistic modelling approach allows differentiation between compound-independent system-specific parameters (e.g., HR baseline) and compound-specific parameters (e.g., EC50). Compared to previous results in rodents, estimated parameters for dogs indicate stronger dependency of stroke volume on HR, slower HR response, faster QT response and steeper concentration-response relationships. In addition, we illustrate how to practically apply the PK/CV model to derive concentration-response relationships for CV readouts. This approach allows a more detailed quantitative evaluation based on the maximum effect on CV effects (Emax), the EC50, and the steepness of this relation (Hill coefficient) especially for HR-independent effects on QT interval duration (QTc) while taking the systemic feedback into account. This approach also allows to derive plasma concentrations associated with relevant CV effects ("threshold concentration"; CTHRESH). The presented modelling analysis highlights the potential of an integrative evaluation of CV data and provides a framework for obtaining quantitative insights from safety pharmacology evaluations.

A Bounded Integer Model for Rating and Composite Scale Data.

Rating and composite scales are commonly used to assess treatment efficacy. The two main strategies for modelling such endpoints are to treat them as a continuous or an ordered categorical variable (CV or OC). Both strategies have disadvantages, including making assumptions that violate the integer nature of the data (CV) and requiring many parameters for scales with many response categories (OC). We present a method, called the bounded integer (BI) model, which utilises the probit function with fixed cut-offs to estimate the probability of a certain score through a latent variable. This method was successfully implemented to describe six data sets from four different therapeutic areas: Parkinson's disease, Alzheimer's disease, schizophrenia, and neuropathic pain. Five scales were investigated, ranging from 11 to 181 categories. The fit (likelihood) was better for the BI model than for corresponding OC or CV models (ΔAIC range 11-1555) in all cases but one (∆AIC - 63), while the number of parameters was the same or lower. Markovian elements were successfully implemented within the method. The performance in external validation, assessed through cross-validation, was also in favour of the new model (ΔOFV range 22-1694) except in one case (∆OFV - 70). A residual for diagnostic purposes is discussed. This study shows that the BI model respects the integer nature of data and is parsimonious in terms of number of estimated parameters.

Mathematical modelling identifies the role of adaptive immunity as a key controller of respiratory syncytial virus in cotton rats.

Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a common virus that can have varying effects ranging from mild cold-like symptoms to mortality depending on the age and immune status of the individual. We combined mathematical modelling using ordinary differential equations (ODEs) with measurement of RSV infection kinetics in primary well-differentiated human bronchial epithelial cultures in vitro and in immunocompetent and immunosuppressed cotton rats to glean mechanistic details that underlie RSV infection kinetics in the lung. Quantitative analysis of viral titre kinetics in our mathematical model showed that the elimination of infected cells by the adaptive immune response generates unique RSV titre kinetic features including a faster timescale of viral titre clearance than viral production, and a monotonic decrease in the peak RSV titre with decreasing inoculum dose. Parameter estimation in the ODE model using a nonlinear mixed effects approach revealed a very low rate (average single-cell lifetime > 10 days) of cell lysis by RSV before the adaptive immune response is initiated. Our model predicted negligible changes in the RSV titre kinetics at early times post-infection (less than 5 dpi) but a slower decay in RSV titre in immunosuppressed cotton rats compared to that in non-suppressed cotton rats at later times (greater than 5 dpi) in silico. These predictions were in excellent agreement with the experimental results. Our combined approach quantified the importance of the adaptive immune response in suppressing RSV infection in cotton rats, which could be useful in testing RSV vaccine candidates.

Uncertainty quantification of fast sodium current steady-state inactivation for multi-scale models of cardiac electrophysiology.

Perhaps the most mature area of multi-scale systems biology is the modelling of the heart. Current models are grounded in over fifty years of research in the development of biophysically detailed models of the electrophysiology (EP) of cardiac cells, but one aspect which is inadequately addressed is the incorporation of uncertainty and physiological variability. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) is the identification and characterisation of the uncertainty in model parameters derived from experimental data, and the computation of the resultant uncertainty in model outputs. It is a necessary tool for establishing the credibility of computational models, and will likely be expected of EP models for future safety-critical clinical applications. The focus of this paper is formal UQ of one major sub-component of cardiac EP models, the steady-state inactivation of the fast sodium current, INa. To better capture average behaviour and quantify variability across cells, we have applied for the first time an 'individual-based' statistical methodology to assess voltage clamp data. Advantages of this approach over a more traditional 'population-averaged' approach are highlighted. The method was used to characterise variability amongst cells isolated from canine epi and endocardium, and this variability was then 'propagated forward' through a canine model to determine the resultant uncertainty in model predictions at different scales, such as of upstroke velocity and spiral wave dynamics. Statistically significant differences between epi and endocardial cells (greater half-inactivation and less steep slope of steady state inactivation curve for endo) was observed, and the forward propagation revealed a lack of robustness of the model to underlying variability, but also surprising robustness to variability at the tissue scale. Overall, the methodology can be used to: (i) better analyse voltage clamp data; (ii) characterise underlying population variability; (iii) investigate consequences of variability; and (iv) improve the ability to validate a model. To our knowledge this article is the first to quantify population variability in membrane dynamics in this manner, and the first to perform formal UQ for a component of a cardiac model. The approach is likely to find much wider applicability across systems biology as current application domains reach greater levels of maturity.