Climate mismatches with ectomycorrhizal fungi contribute to migration lag in North American tree range shifts.

Climate change will likely shift plant and microbial distributions, creating geographic mismatches between plant hosts and essential microbial symbionts (e.g., ectomycorrhizal fungi, EMF). The loss of historical interactions, or the gain of novel associations, can have important consequences for biodiversity, ecosystem processes, and plant migration potential, yet few analyses exist that measure where mycorrhizal symbioses could be lost or gained across landscapes. Here, we examine climate change impacts on tree-EMF codistributions at the continent scale. We built species distribution models for 400 EMF species and 50 tree species, integrating fungal sequencing data from North American forest ecosystems with tree species occurrence records and long-term forest inventory data. Our results show the following: 1) tree and EMF climate suitability to shift toward higher latitudes; 2) climate shifts increase the size of shared tree-EMF habitat overall, but 35% of tree-EMF pairs are at risk of declining habitat overlap; 3) climate mismatches between trees and EMF are projected to be greater at northern vs. southern boundaries; and 4) tree migration lag is correlated with lower richness of climatically suitable EMF partners. This work represents a concentrated effort to quantify the spatial extent and location of tree-EMF climate envelope mismatches. Our findings also support a biotic mechanism partially explaining the failure of northward tree species migrations with climate change: reduced diversity of co-occurring and climate-compatible EMF symbionts at higher latitudes. We highlight the conservation implications for identifying areas where tree and EMF responses to climate change may be highly divergent.

Tree rings reveal the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts.

Given the importance of climate in shaping species' geographic distributions, climate change poses an existential threat to biodiversity. Climate envelope modeling, the predominant approach used to quantify this threat, presumes that individuals in populations respond to climate variability and change according to species-level responses inferred from spatial occurrence data-such that individuals at the cool edge of a species' distribution should benefit from warming (the "leading edge"), whereas individuals at the warm edge should suffer (the "trailing edge"). Using 1,558 tree-ring time series of an aridland pine (Pinus edulis) collected at 977 locations across the species' distribution, we found that trees everywhere grow less in warmer-than-average and drier-than-average years. Ubiquitous negative temperature sensitivity indicates that individuals across the entire distribution should suffer with warming-the entire distribution is a trailing edge. Species-level responses to spatial climate variation are opposite in sign to individual-scale responses to time-varying climate for approximately half the species' distribution with respect to temperature and the majority of the species' distribution with respect to precipitation. These findings, added to evidence from the literature for scale-dependent climate responses in hundreds of species, suggest that correlative, equilibrium-based range forecasts may fail to accurately represent how individuals in populations will be impacted by changing climate. A scale-dependent view of the impact of climate change on biodiversity highlights the transient risk of extinction hidden inside climate envelope forecasts and the importance of evolution in rescuing species from extinction whenever local climate variability and change exceeds individual-scale climate tolerances.

Effects of climate, land use, and human population change on human-elephant conflict risk in Africa and Asia.

Human-wildlife conflict is an important factor in the modern biodiversity crisis and has negative effects on both humans and wildlife (such as property destruction, injury, or death) that can impede conservation efforts for threatened species. Effectively addressing conflict requires an understanding of where it is likely to occur, particularly as climate change shifts wildlife ranges and human activities globally. Here, we examine how projected shifts in cropland density, human population density, and climatic suitability-three key drivers of human-elephant conflict-will shift conflict pressures for endangered Asian and African elephants to inform conflict management in a changing climate. We find that conflict risk (cropland density and/or human population density moving into the 90th percentile based on current-day values) increases in 2050, with a larger increase under the high-emissions "regional rivalry" SSP3 - RCP 7.0 scenario than the low-emissions "sustainability" SSP1 - RCP 2.6 scenario. We also find a net decrease in climatic suitability for both species along their extended range boundaries, with decreasing suitability most often overlapping increasing conflict risk when both suitability and conflict risk are changing. Our findings suggest that as climate changes, the risk of conflict with Asian and African elephants may shift and increase and managers should proactively mitigate that conflict to preserve these charismatic animals.

The importance of oxygen for explaining rapid shifts in a marine fish.

Large-scale shifts in marine species biogeography have been a notable impact of climate change. An effective explanation of what drives these species shifts, as well as accurate predictions of where they might move, is crucial to effectively managing these natural resources and conserving biodiversity. While temperature has been implicated as a major driver of these shifts, physiological processes suggest that oxygen, prey, and other factors should also play important roles. We expanded upon previous temperature-based distribution models by testing whether oxygen, food web productivity, salinity, and scope for metabolic activity (the Metabolic Index) better explained the changing biogeography of Black Sea Bass (Centropristis striata) in the Northeast US. This species has been expanding further north over the past 15 years. We found that oxygen improved model performance beyond a simple consideration of temperature (ΔAIC = 799, ΔTSS = 0.015), with additional contributions from prey and salinity. However, the Metabolic Index did not substantially increase model performance relative to temperature and oxygen (ΔAIC = 0.63, ΔTSS = 0.0002). Marine species are sensitive to oxygen, and we encourage researchers to use ocean biogeochemical hindcast and forecast products to better understand marine biogeographic changes.

Northeast Atlantic elasmobranch community on the move: Functional reorganization in response to climate change.

While spatial distribution shifts have been documented in many marine fishes under global change, the responses of elasmobranchs have rarely been studied, which may have led to an underestimation of their potential additional threats. Given their irreplaceable role in ecosystems and their high extinction risk, we used a 24-year time series (1997-2020) of scientific bottom trawl surveys to examine the effects of climate change on the spatial distribution of nine elasmobranch species within Northeast Atlantic waters. Using a hierarchical modeling of species communities, belonging to the joint species distribution models, we found that suitable habitats for four species increased on average by a factor of 1.6 and, for six species, shifted north-eastwards and/or to deeper waters over the past two decades. By integrating species traits, we showed changes in habitat suitability led to changes in the elasmobranchs trait composition. Moreover, communities shifted to deeper waters and their mean trophic level decreased. We also note an increase in the mean community size at maturity concurrent with a decrease in fecundity. Because skates and sharks are functionally unique and dangerously vulnerable to both climate change and fishing, we advocate for urgent considerations of species traits in management measures. Their use would make it better to identify species whose loss could have irreversible impacts in face of the myriad of anthropogenic threats.

Phylogeographic patterns match the floristic subdivisions: The diversification history of a widespread herb in subtropical China.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: Subtropical China is dominated by evergreen broad-leaved forests (EBLFs) and is acknowledged as a critical region for its high floristic richness and endemism. Understanding of evolutionary mechanisms of such global biodiversity hotspots comes almost exclusively from long-lived tree species. Herbaceous plants represent critical biodiversity components in forests, however, the diversification history of understory herbs in subtropical EBLFs remain poorly understood. Here, we investigated the phylogeographic patterns and demographic history of Oreocharis auricula, a widespread perennial herb endemic to the EBLFs of subtropical China. METHODS: Both cpDNA sequences and single-copy nuclear genes were used to investigate the genetic variation among 657 individuals from 68 populations. Evidences from molecular dating, demographic history construction, and species distribution modeling were also combined to infer the phylogeography and evolutionary history of O. auricula. KEY RESULTS: Strong phylogeographic signals have been congruently observed using nuclear and plastid DNA markers, with the diversification patterns generally consistent with the recognized floristic subdivisions of subtropical China. Notably, we revealed an important phylogeographic barrier along the Nanling mountain range, which is also around a climatic transition at 24-26°N latitude in subtropical China, separating the south monsoon subtropical EBLFs from the mid-subtropical EBLFs. Demographic expansion and significant niche divergence were detected among the extant lineages, which may have diverged during the early Pleistocene. CONCLUSIONS: The inherent characteristics of understory herbs with limited dispersal and short generation time intensify the genetic divergence response of O. auricula to abiotic forces, contributing to the profound phylogeographic imprints of mountains and climate in such herbaceous flora. To further substantiate the generality of the identified patterns, it is paramount to extend phylogeographic investigations to other understory herbaceous taxa in subtropical China. These results have expanded our understanding of the diversification processes of subtropical forests in China.

Mapping multiscale breeding bird species distributions across the United States and evaluating their conservation applications.

Species distribution models are vital to management decisions that require understanding habitat use patterns, particularly for species of conservation concern. However, the production of distribution maps for individual species is often hampered by data scarcity, and existing species maps are rarely spatially validated due to limited occurrence data. Furthermore, community-level maps based on stacked species distribution models lack important community assemblage information (e.g., competitive exclusion) relevant to conservation. Thus, multispecies, guild, or community models are often used in conservation practice instead. To address these limitations, we aimed to generate fine-scale, spatially continuous, nationwide maps for species represented in the North American Breeding Bird Survey (BBS) between 1992 and 2019. We developed ensemble models for each species at three spatial resolutions-0.5, 2.5, and 5 km-across the conterminous United States. We also compared species richness patterns from stacked single-species models with those of 19 functional guilds developed using the same data to assess the similarity between predictions. We successfully modeled 192 bird species at 5-km resolution, 160 species at 2.5-km resolution, and 80 species at 0.5-km resolution. However, the species we could model represent only 28%-56% of species found in the conterminous US BBSs across resolutions owing to data limitations. We found that stacked maps and guild maps generally had high correlations across resolutions (median = 84%), but spatial agreement varied regionally by resolution and was most pronounced between the East and West at the 5-km resolution. The spatial differences between our stacked maps and guild maps illustrate the importance of spatial validation in conservation planning. Overall, our species maps are useful for single-species conservation and can support fine-scale decision-making across the United States and support community-level conservation when used in tandem with guild maps. However, there remain data scarcity issues for many species of conservation concern when using the BBS for single-species models.

What explains the high island endemicity of Philippine Rafflesia? A species distribution modeling analysis of three threatened parasitic plant species and their hosts.

PREMISE: Rafflesia are rare holoparasitic plants. In the Philippines, all but one species are found only on single islands. This study aimed to better understand the factors contributing to this distributional pattern. Specifically, we sought to determine whether narrow environmental tolerances of host and/or parasite species might explain their island endemicity. METHODS: We used Maxent species distribution modeling to identify areas with suitable habitat for R. lagascae, R. lobata, and R. speciosa and their Tetrastigma host species. These analyses were carried out for current climate conditions and two future climate change scenarios. RESULTS: Although species distribution models indicated suitable environmental conditions for the Tetrastigma host species in many parts of the Philippines, considerably fewer areas were inferred to have suitable conditions for the three Rafflesia species. Some of these areas are on islands from which they have not been reported. All three species will face significant threats as a result of climate change. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that limited inter-island dispersibility and/or specific environmental requirements are likely responsible for the current pattern of island endemicity of the three Rafflesia species, rather than environmental requirements of their Tetrastigma host species.

Intraspecific niche models for the invasive ambrosia beetle Xylosandrus crassiusculus suggest contrasted responses to climate change.

Xylosandrus crassiusculus is an invasive ambrosia beetle comprising two differentiated genetic lineages, named cluster 1 and cluster 2. These lineages invaded different parts of the world at different periods of time. We tested whether they exhibited different climatic niches using Schoener's D and Hellinger's I indices and modeled their current potential geographical ranges using the Maxent algorithm. The resulting models were projected according to future and recent past climate datasets for Europe and the Mediterranean region. The future projections were performed for the periods 2041-2070 and 2071-2100 using 3 SSPs and 5 GCMs. The genetic lineages exhibited different climate niches. Parts of Europe, the Americas, Sub-Saharan Africa, Asia, and Oceania were evaluated as suitable for cluster 1. Parts of Europe, South America, Central and South Africa, Asia, and Oceania were considered as suitable for cluster 2. Models projection under future climate scenarios indicated a decrease in climate suitability in Southern Europe and an increase in North Eastern Europe in 2071-2100. Most of Southern and Western Europe was evaluated as already suitable for both clusters in the early twentieth century. Our results show that large climatically suitable regions still remain uncolonized and that climate change will affect the geographical distribution of climatically suitable areas. Climate conditions in Europe were favorable in the twentieth century, suggesting that the recent colonization of Europe is rather due to an increase in propagule pressure via international trade than to recent environmental changes.

Risk of spread of the Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera: Liviidae) in Ghana.

The impact of invasive species on biodiversity, food security and economy is increasingly noticeable in various regions of the globe as a consequence of climate change. Yet, there is limited research on how climate change affects the distribution of the invasive Asian citrus psyllid Diaphorina citri Kuwayama (Hemiptera:Liviidae) in Ghana. Using maxnet package to fit the Maxent model in R software, we answered the following questions; (i) what are the main drivers for D. citri distribution, (ii) what are the D. citri-specific habitat requirements and (iii) how well do the risk maps fit with what we know to be correctly based on the available evidence?. We found that temperature seasonality (Bio04), mean temperature of warmest quarter (Bio10), precipitation of driest quarter (Bio17), moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer land cover and precipitation seasonality (Bio15), were the most important drivers of D. citri distribution. The results follow the known distribution records of the pest with potential expansion of habitat suitability in the future. Because many invasive species, including D. citri, can adapt to the changing climates, our findings can serve as a guide for surveillance, tracking and prevention of D. citri spread in Ghana.

Forecasting the future of Fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (J. E. Smith) (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) in India using ecological niche model.

The Fall armyworm, Spodoptera frugiperda is the most notorious invasive pest species on maize, recently reported in India. The continuous spread of Fall armyworms to new ecological niches raises global concern. The current study is the first in India to forecast the suitability of a habitat for S. frugiperda using a maximum entropy algorithm. Predictions were made based on an analysis of the relationship between 109 occurrence records of S. frugiperda and pertinent historical, current, and predicted climatic data for the study area. The model indicated that S. frugiperda could thrive in different habitats under the current environmental circumstances, particularly in the west and south Indian states like Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka. The model predicted that areas with higher latitudes, particularly in Uttar Pradesh, Odisha, West Bengal, and some portions of Telangana, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh, and Madhya Pradesh, as well as some tracts of northeastern states like Assam and Arunachal Pradesh, would have highly climate-suitable conditions for S. frugiperda to occur in the future. The average AUC value was 0.852, which indicates excellent accuracy of the prediction. A Jackknife test of variables indicated that isothermality with the highest gain value was determining the potential geographic distribution of S. frugiperda. Our results will be useful for serving as an early warning tool to guide decision-making and prevent further spread toward new areas in India.

Predicted changes in distribution and grazing value of Stipa-based plant communities across the Eurasian steppe.

The Eurasian steppe is one of the world's largest continuous areas of grassland and has an important role in supporting livestock grazing, the most ubiquitous land use on Earth. However, the Eurasian steppe is under threat, from irrational grazing utilization, climate change, and resource exploitation. We used an ensemble modeling approach to predict the current and future distribution of Stipa-dominated plant communities in three important steppe subregions; the Tibetan Alpine, Central Asian, and Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregions. We combined this with an assessment of the grazing value of 22 Stipa species, the dominant grassland species in the area, to predict how grazing value might change under future climate change predictions. We found that the effects of changing climates on grazing values differed across the three subregions. Grazing values increased in the Tibetan alpine steppe and to a lesser extent in Central Asia, but there were few changes in the Black Sea-Kazakhstan subregion. The response of different species to changing climates varied with environmental variables. Finally, our trait-based assessment of Stipa species revealed variations in grazing value, and this had major effects on the overall grazing value of the region. Our results reinforce the importance of trait-based characteristics of steppe plant species, how these traits affect grazing value, and how grazing values will change across different areas of the Eurasian steppe. Our work provides valuable insights into how different species will respond to changing climates and grazing, with important implications for sustainable management of different areas of the vast Eurasian steppe ecosystem.

Predicting Quercus gilva distribution dynamics and its response to climate change induced by GHGs emission through MaxEnt modeling.

Quercus gilva, an evergreen tree species in Quercus section Cyclobalanopsis, is an ecologically and economically valuable species in subtropical regions of East Asia. Predicting the impact of climate change on potential distribution of Q. gilva can provide a scientific basis for the conservation and utilization of its genetic resources, as well as for afforestation. In this study, 74 distribution records of Q. gilva and nine climate variables were obtained after data collection and processing. Current climate data downloaded from WorldClim and future climate data predicted by four future climate scenarios (2040s SSP1-2.6, 2040s SSP5-8.5, 2060s SSP1-2.6, and 2060s SSP5-8.5) mainly based on greenhouse gases emissions of distribution sites were used in MaxEnt model with optimized parameters to predict distribution dynamics of Q. gilva and its response to climate change. The results showed that the predicted current distribution was consistent with natural distribution of Q. gilva, which was mainly located in Hunan, Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Fujian, Guizhou, and Taiwan provinces of China, as well as Japan and Jeju Island of South Korea. Under current climate conditions, precipitation factors played a more significant role than temperature factors on distribution of Q. gilva, and precipitation of driest quarter (BIO17) is the most important restriction factor for its current distribution (contribution rate of 57.35%). Under future climate conditions, mean temperature of driest quarter (BIO9) was the essential climate factor affecting future change in potential distribution of Q. gilva. As the degree of climatic anomaly increased in the future, the total area of predicted distribution of Q. gilva showed a shrinking trend (decreased by 12.24%-45.21%) and Q. gilva would migrate to high altitudes and latitudes. The research results illustrated potential distribution range and suitable climate conditions of Q. gilva, which can provide essential theoretical references for the conservation, development, and utilization of Q. gilva and other related species.

Environmental Factors Affecting Spatio-Temporal Distribution of Crop-Exploiting Species: Implications for Coexistence Between Agricultural Production and Avifauna Conservation in Wetlands.

Bird communities in agroecosystems bring both ecosystem services (e.g., pollination) and disservices (e.g., crop exploitation) to farmers. However, in the proximity of wetland reserves, farmers disproportionately experience harvest yield loss due to large aggregation of bird species that can utilize various agricultural resources. This often results in negative human-wildlife interactions which lower conservation support among farmers. Knowledge about the distribution of avian species that negatively influence yields, and its environmental drivers is thus fundamental to reconcile crop production and bird conservation. This study aims to examine the spatio-temporal patterns in richness and abundance of bird species known to cause agricultural yield loss as well as species-specific distribution patterns for the six bird species that are most challenging for local farmers. In combination with interview surveys of local farmers (n = 367) and seasonal bird surveys (n = 720), we investigated distribution of crop-exploiting avian species in the Indawgyi wetland ecosystem in Myanmar. Our results showed high richness and abundance of crop-exploiting species in the water habitat across all seasons, with most challenging species exhibiting higher presence closer to these water sources. The crop phenology had positive effect on species richness and abundance during the growing season. The agricultural use of crop-exploiting species was season- and species-specific, where the presence probability in the agricultural habitat was higher in habitat generalists than wetland specialists. Therefore, we suggest improved management of natural wetland habitats (e.g., habitat restoration), sustainable coexistence mechanisms in farms close to water (e.g., bird-friendly rice farming and Ecolabel certification) to reduce avian impacts on the farming communities and, at the same time, to promote bird conservation in wetlands of international importance.

Habitat suitability of Opuntia ficus-indica (L.) MILL. (CACTACEAE): a comparative temporal evaluation using diverse bio-climatic earth system models and ensemble machine learning approach.

A comprehensive evaluation of the habitat suitability across the India was conducted for the introduced species Opuntia ficus-indica. This assessment utilized a newly developed model called BioClimInd, takes into account five Earth System Models (ESMs). These ESMs consider two different emission scenarios known as Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP), specifically RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Additionally, the assessment considered two future time frames: 2040-2079 (60) and 2060-2099 (80). Current study provided the threshold limit of different climatic variables in annual, quarter and monthly time slots like temperature annual range (26-30 °C), mean temperature of the driest quarter (25-28 °C); mean temperature of the coldest month (22-25 °C); minimum temperature of coldest month (13-17 °C); precipitation of the wettest month (250-500 mm); potential evapotranspiration Thronthwaite (1740-1800 mm). Predictive climatic habitat suitability posits that the introduction of this exotic species is deemed unsuitable in the Northern as well as the entirety of the cooler eastern areas of the country. The states of Rajasthan and Gujarat exhibit the highest degree of habitat suitability for this particular species. Niche hypervolumes and climatic variables affecting fundamental and realized niches were also assessed. This study proposes using multi-climatic exploration to evaluate habitats for introduced species to reduce modeling uncertainties.

Rooting depth and xylem vulnerability are independent woody plant traits jointly selected by aridity, seasonality, and water table depth.

Evolutionary radiations of woody taxa within arid environments were made possible by multiple trait innovations including deep roots and embolism-resistant xylem, but little is known about how these traits have coevolved across the phylogeny of woody plants or how they jointly influence the distribution of species. We synthesized global trait and vegetation plot datasets to examine how rooting depth and xylem vulnerability across 188 woody plant species interact with aridity, precipitation seasonality, and water table depth to influence species occurrence probabilities across all biomes. Xylem resistance to embolism and rooting depth are independent woody plant traits that do not exhibit an interspecific trade-off. Resistant xylem and deep roots increase occurrence probabilities in arid, seasonal climates over deep water tables. Resistant xylem and shallow roots increase occurrence probabilities in arid, nonseasonal climates over deep water tables. Vulnerable xylem and deep roots increase occurrence probabilities in arid, nonseasonal climates over shallow water tables. Lastly, vulnerable xylem and shallow roots increase occurrence probabilities in humid climates. Each combination of trait values optimizes occurrence probabilities in unique environmental conditions. Responses of deeply rooted vegetation may be buffered if evaporative demand changes faster than water table depth under climate change.

Global diversity patterns of larger benthic foraminifera under future climate change.

Global warming threatens the viability of tropical coral reefs and associated marine calcifiers, including symbiont-bearing larger benthic foraminifera (LBF). The impacts of current climate change on LBF are debated because they were particularly diverse and abundant during past warm periods. Studies on the responses of selected LBF species to changing environmental conditions reveal varying results. Based on a comprehensive review of the scientific literature on LBF species occurrences, we applied species distribution modeling using Maxent to estimate present-day and future species richness patterns on a global scale for the time periods 2040-2050 and 2090-2100. For our future projections, we focus on Representative Concentration Pathway 6.0 from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, which projects mean surface temperature changes of +2.2°C by the year 2100. Our results suggest that species richness in the Central Indo-Pacific is two to three times higher than in the Bahamian ecoregion, which we have identified as the present-day center of LBF diversity in the Atlantic. Our future predictions project a dramatic temperature-driven decline in low-latitude species richness and an increasing widening bimodal latitudinal pattern of species diversity. While the central Indo-Pacific, now the stronghold of LBF diversity, is expected to be most pushed outside of the currently realized niches of most species, refugia may be largely preserved in the Atlantic. LBF species will face large-scale non-analogous climatic conditions compared to currently realized climate space in the near future, as reflected in the extensive areas of extrapolation, particularly in the Indo-Pacific. Our study supports hypotheses that species richness and biogeographic patterns of LBF will fundamentally change under future climate conditions, possibly initiating a faunal turnover by the late 21st century.

Linking life history to landscape for threatened species conservation in a multiuse region.

Landscape-scale conservation that considers metapopulation dynamics will be essential for preventing declines of species facing multiple threats to their survival. Toward this end, we developed a novel approach that combines occurrence records, spatial-environmental data, and genetic information to model habitat, connectivity, and patterns of genetic structure and link spatial attributes to underlying ecological mechanisms. Using the threatened northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) as a case study, we applied this approach to address the need for conservation decision-making tools that promote resilient metapopulations of this threatened species in the Pilbara, Western Australia, a multiuse landscape that is a hotspot for biodiversity and mining. Habitat and connectivity were predicted by different landscape characteristics. Whereas habitat suitability was overwhelmingly driven by terrain ruggedness, dispersal was facilitated by proximity to watercourses. Although there is limited evidence for major physical barriers in the Pilbara, areas with high silt and clay content (i.e., alluvial and hardpan plains) showed high resistance to dispersal. Climate subtlety shaped distributions and patterns of genetic turnover, suggesting the potential for local adaptation. By understanding these spatial-environmental associations and linking them to life-history and metapopulation dynamics, we highlight opportunities to provide targeted species management. To support this, we have created habitat, connectivity, and genetic uniqueness maps for conservation decision-making in the region. These tools have the potential to provide a more holistic approach to conservation in multiuse landscapes globally.

La conservación a nivel del paisaje que incluye las dinámicas metapoblacionales será esencial para prevenir la declinación de especies con múltiples amenazas a su supervivencia. Enfocados en este fin, desarrollamos una estrategia novedosa que combina los registros presenciales, datos espacio-ambientales e información genética para modelar la conectividad de hábitat y los patrones de estructura genética y conectar los atributos espaciales con los mecanismos ecológicos subyacentes. Usamos al cuol del norte (Dasyurus hallucatus) como estudio de caso para aplicar esta estrategia y abordar la necesidad de herramientas de decisión en la conservación que promuevan metapoblaciones resilientes de esta especie en la Pilbara de Australia Occidental, un paisaje multiusos que es un punto caliente para la biodiversidad y la minería. Diferentes características del paisaje pronosticaron la conectividad y el hábitat. Mientras que la escabrosidad del terreno causó enormemente la idoneidad del hábitat, la dispersión estuvo propiciada por la proximidad a los cauces. Aunque hay evidencias limitadas de barreras físicas importantes en la Pilbara, las áreas con un contenido elevado de limo y arcilla (es decir, planicies aluviales y de alio) mostraron una gran resistencia a la dispersión. La matización climática determinó la distribución y los patrones del recambio genético, lo que sugiere un potencial para la adaptación local. Si entendemos estas asociaciones espacio-ambientales y las conectamos con las dinámicas metapoblacionales y de historia de vida, podemos resaltar las oportunidades para proporcionar un manejo focalizado de la especie. Para respaldar esto hemos creado mapas de hábitat, conectividad y singularidad genética para las decisiones de conservación en la región. Estas herramientas tienen el potencial de proporcionar una estrategia más holística para la conservación en los paisajes multiusos de todo el mundo.

Impacts of climate change on herpetofauna diversity in the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau.

Although numerous studies on the impacts of climate change on biodiversity have been published, only a handful are focused on the intraspecific level or consider population-level models (separate models per population). We endeavored to fill this knowledge gap relative to the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP) by combining species distribution modeling (SDMs) with population genetics (i.e., population-level models) and phylogenetic methods (i.e., phylogenetic tree reconstruction and phylogenetic diversity analyses). We applied our models to 11 endemic and widely distributed herpetofauna species inhabiting high elevations in the QTP. We aimed to determine the influence of environmental heterogeneity on species' responses to climate change, the magnitude of climate-change impacts on intraspecific diversity, and the relationship between species range loss and intraspecific diversity losses under 2 shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP245 and SSP585) and 3 future periods (2050s, 2070s, and 2090s). The effects of global climatic change were more pronounced at the intraspecific level (22% of haplotypes lost and 36% of populations lost) than the morphospecies level in the SSP585 climate change scenario. Maintenance of genetic diversity was in general determined by a combination of factors including range changes, species genetic structure, and the part of the range predicted to be lost. This is owing to the fact that the loss and survival of populations were observed in species irrespective of the predicted range changes (contraction or expansion). In the southeast (mountainous regions), climate change had less of an effect on range size (>100% in 3 species) than in central and northern QTP plateau regions (range size <100% in all species). This may be attributed to environmental heterogeneity, which provided pockets of suitable climate in the southeast, whereas ecosystems in the north and central regions were homogeneous. Generally, our results imply that mountainous regions with high environmental heterogeneity and high genetic diversity may buffer the adverse impacts of climate change on species distribution and intraspecific diversity. Therefore, genetic structure and characteristics of the ecosystem may be crucial for conservation under climate change.

Impactos del cambio climático sobre la diversidad de herpetofauna en la meseta Qinghai-Tíbet Región Aunque se han publicado numerosos estudios sobre los impactos del cambio climática en la biodiversidad, son muy pocos los que se enfocan en el nivel intraespecífico o que consideran modelos a nivel poblacional (modelos separados por población). Intentamos cerrar este vacío de conocimiento en relación con la meseta Qinghai-Tíbet (MQT) con la combinación entre modelos de distribución de especies (MDE) y genética poblacional (modelos a nivel poblacional) y métodos filogenéticos (reconstrucción de árboles filogenéticos y análisis de diversidad filogenética). Aplicamos nuestros modelos a once especies endémicas de herpetofauna con distribución amplia en las elevaciones más altas de la MQT. Nos planteamos determinar la influencia de la heterogeneidad de las especies sobre la respuesta de las especies al cambio climático, la magnitud de los impactos del cambio climático sobre la diversidad intraespecífica y la relación entre la pérdida de distribución de la especie y las pérdidas de diversidad intraespecífica bajo dos vías socioeconómicas (SSP245 y SSP585) y tres periodos del futuro (2050s, 2070s y 2090s). Los efectos del cambio climático global fueron más pronunciados a nivel intraespecífico (22% de pérdida en los haplotipos y 36% en las poblaciones) que al nivel morfoespecie en el escenario de cambio climático SSP585. El mantenimiento de la diversidad genética casi siempre estuvo determinado por una combinación de factores que incluyen cambios en la distribución, estructura genética de las especies y la parte de la distribución que se pronosticó se perdería. Esto se debe a que observamos la pérdida y supervivencia de las poblaciones sin importar los cambios pronosticados en la distribución (contracción o expansión). En las regiones montañosas del sureste, el cambio climático tuvo un efecto menor sobre la distribución (>100% en tres especies) comparado con las regiones de la meseta central y del norte de la MQT (distribución <100% en todas las especies). Esto puede atribuirse a la heterogeneidad ambiental, la cual proporciona recovecos de clima adecuado en el sureste, mientras que los ecosistemas en las regiones central y norte fueron homogéneos. De manera general, nuestros resultados implican que las regiones montañosas con una elevada heterogeneidad ambiental y una gran diversidad genética podrían reducir los impactos adversos del cambio climático sobre la distribución de las especies y la diversidad intraespecífica. Por lo tanto, la estructura genética y las características del ecosistema pueden ser cruciales para conservar bajo el cambio climático.

Identifying climate change refugia for South American biodiversity.

Refugia-based conservation offers long-term effectiveness and minimize uncertainty on strategies for climate change adaptation. We used distribution modelling to identify climate change refugia for 617 terrestrial mammals and to quantify the role of protected areas (PAs) in providing refugia across South America. To do so, we compared species potential distribution across different scenarios of climate change, highlighting those regions likely to retain suitable climatic conditions by year 2090, and explored the proportion of refugia inside PAs. Moist tropical forests in high-elevation areas with complex topography concentrated the highest local diversity of species refugia, although regionally important refugia centers occurred elsewhere. Andean-Amazon forests contained climate change refugia for more than half of the continental species' pool and for up to 87 species locally (17 × 17 km2 grid cell). The highlands of the southern Atlantic Forest also included megadiverse refugia for up to 76 species per cell. Almost half of the species that may find refugia in the Atlantic Forest will do so in a single region-the Serra do Mar and Serra do Espinhaço. Most of the refugia we identified, however, were not in PAs, which may contain <6% of the total area of climate change refugia, leaving 129-237 species with no refugia inside the territorial limits of PAs of any kind. Our results reveal a dismal scenario for the level of refugia protection in some of the most biodiverse regions of the world. Nonetheless, because refugia tend to be in high-elevation, topographically complex, and remote areas, with lower anthropogenic pressure, formally protecting them may require a comparatively modest investment.

Identificación de refugios para la biodiversidad de Sudamérica ante el cambio climático Resumen Las estrategias de conservación basadas en refugios ofrecen efectividad a largo plazo y minimizan la incertidumbre sobre las estrategias de adaptación al cambio climático. Utilizamos modelos de distribución para identificar los refugios del cambio climático de 617 especies de mamíferos terrestres y cuantificar el papel de las áreas protegidas en la provisión de refugios en Sudamérica. Para esto, comparamos la distribución potencial de las especies en diferentes escenarios de cambio climático, destacando las regiones que probablemente conservarán las condiciones climáticas adecuadas para el año 2090, y exploramos la proporción de refugios dentro de las áreas protegidas. Los bosques tropicales húmedos de zonas de gran altitud y topografía compleja concentraron la mayor diversidad local de refugios de especies, aunque también hubo centros de refugio de importancia regional en otras localidades. Los bosques amazónicos andinos albergaron los refugios ante el cambio climático de más de la mitad del conjunto de especies continentales y para hasta 87 especies a escala local (celda cuadriculada de 17 × 17 km2 ). Las tierras altas del sur del Bosque Atlántico también incluyeron refugios megadiversos para hasta 76 especies por celda. Casi la mitad de las especies que pueden refugiarse en el Bosque Atlántico lo harán en una sola región: la Serra do Mar y la Serra do Espinhaço. Sin embargo, la mayoría de los refugios que identificamos no estaban en áreas protegidas, las cuales pueden contener <6% del área total de refugios del cambio climático, dejando entre 129 y 237 especies sin refugio dentro de los límites territoriales de las áreas protegidas de cualquier tipo. Nuestros resultados revelan un panorama desolador para el nivel de protección de los refugios en algunas de las regiones con mayor biodiversidad del mundo. No obstante, dado que los refugios suelen encontrarse en zonas remotas de gran altitud con topografía compleja y menor presión antropogénica, protegerlos formalmente puede requerir una inversión comparativamente modesta.