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Transmission of malaria parasites occurs when a female Anopheles mosquito feeds on an infected host to acquire nutrients for egg development. How parasites are affected by oogenetic processes, principally orchestrated by the steroid hormone 20-hydroxyecdysone (20E), remains largely unknown. Here we show that Plasmodium falciparum development is intimately but not competitively linked to processes shaping Anopheles gambiae reproduction. We unveil a 20E-mediated positive correlation between egg and oocyst numbers; impairing oogenesis by multiple 20E manipulations decreases parasite intensities. These manipulations, however, accelerate Plasmodium growth rates, allowing sporozoites to become infectious sooner. Parasites exploit mosquito lipids for faster growth, but they do so without further affecting egg development. These results suggest that P. falciparum has adopted a non-competitive evolutionary strategy of resource exploitation to optimize transmission while minimizing fitness costs to its mosquito vector. Our findings have profound implications for currently proposed control strategies aimed at suppressing mosquito populations.
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Ecdisterona/metabolismo , Interacciones Huésped-Parásitos/fisiología , Malaria Falciparum/parasitología , Animales , Anopheles/parasitología , Culicidae , Ecdisterona/fisiología , Femenino , Células HEK293 , Humanos , Insectos Vectores , Malaria/parasitología , Ratones , Mosquitos Vectores , Células 3T3 NIH , Oogénesis/fisiología , Plasmodium/metabolismo , Plasmodium falciparum , Esporozoítos , Esteroides/metabolismoRESUMEN
In Arabidopsis (Arabidopsis thaliana), overproduction of salicylic acid (SA) increases disease resistance and abiotic stress tolerance but penalizes growth. This growth-defense trade-off has hindered the adoption of SA-based disease management strategies in agriculture. However, investigation of how SA inhibits plant growth has been challenging because many SA-hyperaccumulating Arabidopsis mutants have developmental defects due to the pleiotropic effects of the underlying genes. Here, we heterologously expressed a bacterial SA synthase gene in Arabidopsis and observed that elevated SA levels decreased plant growth and reduced the expression of cold-regulated (COR) genes in a dose-dependent manner. Growth suppression was exacerbated at below-ambient temperatures. Severing the SA-responsiveness of individual COR genes was sufficient to overcome the growth inhibition caused by elevated SA at ambient and below-ambient temperatures while preserving disease- and abiotic-stress-related benefits. Our results show the potential of decoupling SA-mediated growth and defense trade-offs for improving crop productivity.
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The expansion of the oil palm industry in Indonesia has improved livelihoods in rural communities, but comes at the cost of biodiversity and ecosystem degradation. Here, we investigated ways to balance ecological and economic outcomes of oil palm cultivation. We compared a wide range of production systems, including smallholder plantations, industrialized company estates, estates with improved agronomic management, and estates with native tree enrichment. Across all management types, we assessed multiple indicators of biodiversity, ecosystem functions, management, and landscape structure to identify factors that facilitate economic-ecological win-wins, using palm yields as measure of economic performance. Although, we found that yields in industrialized estates were, on average, twice as high as those in smallholder plantations, ecological indicators displayed substantial variability across systems, regardless of yield variations, highlighting potential for economic-ecological win-wins. Reducing management intensity (e.g., mechanical weeding instead of herbicide application) did not lower yields but improved ecological outcomes at moderate costs, making it a potential measure for balancing economic and ecological demands. Additionally, maintaining forest cover in the landscape generally enhanced local biodiversity and ecosystem functioning within plantations. Enriching plantations with native trees is also a promising strategy to increase ecological value without reducing productivity. Overall, we recommend closing yield gaps in smallholder cultivation through careful intensification, whereas conventional plantations could reduce management intensity without sacrificing yield. Our study highlights various pathways to reconcile the economics and ecology of palm oil production and identifies management practices for a more sustainable future of oil palm cultivation.
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Arecaceae , Aceites Industriales , Ecosistema , Bosques , Biodiversidad , Agricultura , Árboles , Aceite de Palma , Conservación de los Recursos NaturalesRESUMEN
Trade-offs between evolutionary gain and loss are prevalent in nature, yet their genetic basis is not well resolved. The evolution of insect resistance to insecticide is often associated with strong fitness costs; however, how the fitness trade-offs operates remains poorly understood. Here, we show that the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) pathway and its upstream and downstream actors underlie the fitness trade-offs associated with insecticide resistance in the whitefly Bemisia tabaci. Specifically, we find a key cytochrome P450 gene CYP6CM1, that confers neonicotinoids resistance to in B. tabaci, is regulated by the MAPKs p38 and ERK through their activation of the transcription factor cAMP-response element binding protein. However, phosphorylation of p38 and ERK also leads to the activation of the transcription repressor Cap "n" collar isoform C (CncC) that negatively regulates exuperantia (Ex), vasa (Va), and benign gonial cell neoplasm (Bg), key genes involved in oogenesis, leading to abnormal ovary growth and a reduction in female fecundity. We further demonstrate that the transmembrane G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) neuropeptide FF receptor 2 (NPFF2) triggers the p38 and ERK pathways via phosphorylation. Additionally, a positive feedback loop between p38 and NPFF2 leads to the continuous activation of the MAPK pathways, thereby constitutively promoting neonicotinoids resistance but with a significant reproductive cost. Collectively, these findings provide fundamental insights into the role of cis-trans regulatory networks incurred by GPCR-MAPK signaling pathways in evolutionary trade-offs and applied knowledge that can inform the development of strategies for the sustainable pest control.
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Hemípteros , Proteínas de Insectos , Resistencia a los Insecticidas , Sistema de Señalización de MAP Quinasas , Receptores Acoplados a Proteínas G , Animales , Hemípteros/genética , Hemípteros/metabolismo , Resistencia a los Insecticidas/genética , Receptores Acoplados a Proteínas G/metabolismo , Receptores Acoplados a Proteínas G/genética , Proteínas de Insectos/metabolismo , Proteínas de Insectos/genética , Femenino , Insecticidas/farmacología , Sistema Enzimático del Citocromo P-450/metabolismo , Sistema Enzimático del Citocromo P-450/genéticaRESUMEN
Identifying the genetic basis of local adaptation and fitness trade-offs across environments is a central goal of evolutionary biology. Cold acclimation is an adaptive plastic response for surviving seasonal freezing, and costs of acclimation may be a general mechanism for fitness trade-offs across environments in temperate zone species. Starting with locally adapted ecotypes of Arabidopsis thaliana from Italy and Sweden, we examined the fitness consequences of a naturally occurring functional polymorphism in CBF2. This gene encodes a transcription factor that is a major regulator of cold-acclimated freezing tolerance and resides within a locus responsible for a genetic trade-off for long-term mean fitness. We estimated the consequences of alternate genotypes of CBF2 on 5-y mean fitness and fitness components at the native field sites by comparing near-isogenic lines with alternate genotypes of CBF2 to their genetic background ecotypes. The effects of CBF2 were validated at the nucleotide level using gene-edited lines in the native genetic backgrounds grown in simulated parental environments. The foreign CBF2 genotype in the local genetic background reduced long-term mean fitness in Sweden by more than 10%, primarily via effects on survival. In Italy, fitness was reduced by more than 20%, primarily via effects on fecundity. At both sites, the effects were temporally variable and much stronger in some years. The gene-edited lines confirmed that CBF2 encodes the causal variant underlying this genetic trade-off. Additionally, we demonstrated a substantial fitness cost of cold acclimation, which has broad implications for potential maladaptive responses to climate change.
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Proteínas de Arabidopsis , Arabidopsis , Arabidopsis/genética , Mutación , Aclimatación/genética , Proteínas de Arabidopsis/genética , Factores de Transcripción/genética , Frío , Aptitud GenéticaRESUMEN
The competition-colonization (CC) trade-off is a well-studied coexistence mechanism for metacommunities. In this setting, it is believed that the coexistence of all species requires their traits to satisfy restrictive conditions limiting their similarity. To investigate whether diverse metacommunities can assemble in a CC trade-off model, we study their assembly from a probabilistic perspective. From a pool of species with parameters (corresponding to traits) sampled at random, we compute the probability that any number of species coexist and characterize the set of species that emerges through assembly. Remarkably, almost exactly half of the species in a large pool typically coexist, with no saturation as the size of the pool grows, and with little dependence on the underlying distribution of traits. Through a mix of analytical results and simulations, we show that this unlimited niche packing emerges as assembly actively moves communities toward overdispersed configurations in niche space. Our findings also apply to a realistic assembly scenario where species invade one at a time from a fixed regional pool. When diversity arises de novo in the metacommunity, richness still grows without bound, but more slowly. Together, our results suggest that the CC trade-off can support the robust emergence of diverse communities, even when coexistence of the full species pool is exceedingly unlikely.
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Vendajes , Fenotipo , ProbabilidadRESUMEN
Conservation enforcement is a direct strategy to combat illegal wildlife trade in open markets. Yet, its large-scale effectiveness has not been widely assessed due to the lack of extensive market data. Between August 2016 and June 2017, a national coordinated enforcement campaign led by the leading Chinese authority to combat illegal migratory bird trade coincided with the largest-ever pet bird market survey across China by voluntary birdwatchers before and after the enforcement, which served as a unique natural experiment. Across 73 markets from 22 Chinese provinces, the dataset contains 140,723 birds of 346 species from 48 families and recorded a drastic decline in bird abundance traded after enforcement. Notably, species protected under China's Wildlife Protection Law declined significantly, while commercially bred species increased, although responses to enforcement were spatially heterogeneous. Our model showed that the national protection level was the best predictor for the trend of traded species, even after accounting for confounding factors such as regional baseline enforcement pressure and wild native bird populations. However, the widely traded native songbirds were not offered adequate national protection. Future policies should consider the pet bird trade patterns, target key areas of trade, and develop a more systematic market survey design to monitor trade.
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Aves , Comercio , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Aplicación de la Ley , Mascotas , Animales , China , Comercio/legislación & jurisprudencia , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/legislación & jurisprudencia , Animales SalvajesRESUMEN
Sex-biased admixture can be inferred from ancestry-specific proportions of X chromosome and autosomes. In a paper published in the American Journal of Human Genetics, Micheletti et al.1 used this approach to quantify male and female contributions following the transatlantic slave trade. Using a large dataset from 23andMe, they concluded that African and European contributions to gene pools in the Americas were much more sex biased than previously thought. We show that the reported extreme sex-specific contributions can be attributed to unassigned genetic ancestry as well as the limitations of simple models of sex-biased admixture. Unassigned ancestry proportions in the study by Micheletti et al. ranged from â¼1% to 21%, depending on the type of chromosome and geographic region. A sensitivity analysis illustrates how this unassigned ancestry can create false patterns of sex bias and that mathematical models are highly sensitive to slight sampling errors when inferring mean ancestry proportions, making confidence intervals necessary. Thus, unassigned ancestry and the sensitivity of the models effectively prohibit the interpretation of estimated sex biases for many geographic regions in Micheletti et al. Furthermore, Micheletti et al. assumed models of a single admixture event. Using simulations, we find that violations of demographic assumptions, such as subsequent gene flow and/or sex-specific assortative mating, may have confounded the analyses of Micheletti et al., but unassigned ancestry was likely the more important confounding factor. Our findings underscore the importance of using complete ancestry information, sufficiently large sample sizes, and appropriate models when inferring sex-biased patterns of demography. This Matters Arising paper is in response to Micheletti et al.,1 published in American Journal of Human Genetics. See also the response by Micheletti et al.,2 published in this issue.
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Genética de Población , Sexismo , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Cromosomas , Flujo Génico , África , Europa (Continente)RESUMEN
The island of St Helena played a crucial role in the suppression of the transatlantic slave trade. Strategically located in the middle of the South Atlantic, it served as a staging post for the Royal Navy and reception point for enslaved Africans who had been "liberated" from slave ships intercepted by the British. In total, St Helena received approximately 27,000 liberated Africans between 1840 and 1867. Written sources suggest that the majority of these individuals came from West Central Africa, but their precise origins are unknown. Here, we report the results of ancient DNA analyses that we conducted as part of a wider effort to commemorate St Helena's liberated Africans and to restore knowledge of their lives and experiences. We generated partial genomes (0.1-0.5×) for 20 individuals whose remains had been recovered during archaeological excavations on the island. We compared their genomes with genotype data for over 3,000 present-day individuals from 90 populations across sub-Saharan Africa and conclude that the individuals most likely originated from different source populations within the general area between northern Angola and Gabon. We also find that the majority (17/20) of the individuals were male, supporting a well-documented sex bias in the latter phase of the transatlantic slave trade. The study expands our understanding of St Helena's liberated African community and illustrates how ancient DNA analyses can be used to investigate the origins and identities of individuals whose lives were bound up in the story of slavery and its abolition.
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Pueblo Africano , Personas Esclavizadas , Humanos , Femenino , Masculino , ADN Antiguo , Población Negra/genética , GenotipoRESUMEN
Plants have developed an array of mechanisms to protect themselves against pathogen invasion. The deployment of defense mechanisms is imperative for plant survival, but can come at the expense of plant growth, leading to the 'growth-defense trade-off' phenomenon. Following pathogen exposure, plants can develop resistance to further attack. This is known as induced resistance, or priming. Here, we investigated the growth-defense trade-off, examining how defense priming via systemic acquired resistance (SAR), or induced systemic resistance (ISR), affects tomato development and growth. We found that defense priming can promote, rather than inhibit, plant development, and that defense priming and growth trade-offs can be uncoupled. Cytokinin response was activated during induced resistance, and found to be required for the observed growth and disease resistance resulting from ISR activation. ISR was found to have a stronger effect than SAR on plant development. Our results suggest that growth promotion and induced resistance can be co-dependent, and that, in certain cases, defense priming can drive developmental processes and promote plant yield.
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Solanum lycopersicum , Citocininas , Desarrollo de la Planta , Resistencia Sistémica Adquirida de la PlantaRESUMEN
Demand for food products, often from international trade, has brought agricultural land use into direct competition with biodiversity. Where these potential conflicts occur and which consumers are responsible is poorly understood. By combining conservation priority (CP) maps with agricultural trade data, we estimate current potential conservation risk hotspots driven by 197 countries across 48 agricultural products. Globally, a third of agricultural production occurs in sites of high CP (CP > 0.75, max = 1.0). While cattle, maize, rice, and soybean pose the greatest threat to very high-CP sites, other low-conservation risk products (e.g., sugar beet, pearl millet, and sunflower) currently are less likely to be grown in sites of agriculture-conservation conflict. Our analysis suggests that a commodity can cause dissimilar conservation threats in different production regions. Accordingly, some of the conservation risks posed by different countries depend on their demand and sourcing patterns of agricultural commodities. Our spatial analyses identify potential hotspots of competition between agriculture and high-conservation value sites (i.e., 0.5° resolution, or ~367 to 3,077km2, grid cells containing both agriculture and high-biodiversity priority habitat), thereby providing additional information that could help prioritize conservation activities and safeguard biodiversity in individual countries and globally. A web-based GIS tool at https://agriculture.spatialfootprint.com/biodiversity/ systematically visualizes the results of our analyses.
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Comercio , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales , Animales , Bovinos , Conservación de los Recursos Naturales/métodos , Internacionalidad , Ecosistema , Biodiversidad , Agricultura/métodosRESUMEN
During the nineteenth century, a major change took place in the trade, production, and use of mercury that altered its nearly exclusive link to silver refining in the Hispanic New World. We track the global expansion of mercury markets in chronological detail from 1511 to 1900 using historical archives on production and trade, a detailed country-by-country accounting of the pool of anthropogenic mercury from which legacy mercury was ultimately generated. The nature and profile of pre-1900 legacy mercury extends beyond silver refining, mercury production, and gold extraction, and includes alternate sources (vermilion, felt, mercury fulminate) and new regions that were not major silver or gold producers (China, India, United Kingdom, France, among others), that accounted for approximately 50% of total mercury consumed in the nineteenth century. The nature of the pre-1900 mercury market requires a quantitative distinction between legacy mercury and historic anthropogenic mercury production and use, since the chemistry of its end-uses determines the pathways and timelines for its incorporation into the global biogeochemical cycle. We thus introduce the concept of a mercury source pool to account for total historic anthropogenic mercury within and outside this cycle. Together with a critical review of previous assumptions used to reconstruct the historical use and loss of mercury, a much lower level of emissions of pre-1900 legacy mercury is proposed. A coordinated effort across disciplines is needed, to complete a historically accurate scenario that can guide the multilateral policies adopted under the United Nations Minamata Convention to control mercury in the environment.
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Animals move smoothly and reliably in unpredictable environments. Models of sensorimotor control, drawing on control theory, have assumed that sensory information from the environment leads to actions, which then act back on the environment, creating a single, unidirectional perception-action loop. However, the sensorimotor loop contains internal delays in sensory and motor pathways, which can lead to unstable control. We show here that these delays can be compensated by internal feedback signals that flow backward, from motor toward sensory areas. This internal feedback is ubiquitous in neural sensorimotor systems, and we show how internal feedback compensates internal delays. This is accomplished by filtering out self-generated and other predictable changes so that unpredicted, actionable information can be rapidly transmitted toward action by the fastest components, effectively compressing the sensory input to more efficiently use feedforward pathways: Tracts of fast, giant neurons necessarily convey less accurate signals than tracts with many smaller neurons, but they are crucial for fast and accurate behavior. We use a mathematically tractable control model to show that internal feedback has an indispensable role in achieving state estimation, localization of function (how different parts of the cortex control different parts of the body), and attention, all of which are crucial for effective sensorimotor control. This control model can explain anatomical, physiological, and behavioral observations, including motor signals in the visual cortex, heterogeneous kinetics of sensory receptors, and the presence of giant cells in the cortex of humans as well as internal feedback patterns and unexplained heterogeneity in neural systems.
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Técnicas de Observación Conductual , Células Receptoras Sensoriales , Animales , Humanos , Retroalimentación , Vías Eferentes , PercepciónRESUMEN
The response of trade cumulus clouds to warming remains a major source of uncertainty for climate sensitivity. Recent studies have highlighted the role of the cloud-convection coupling in explaining this spread in future warming estimates. Here, using observations from an instrumented site and an airborne field campaign, together with high-frequency climate model outputs, we show that i) over the course of the daily cycle, a cloud transition is observed from deeper cumuli during nighttime to shallower cumuli during daytime, ii) the cloud evolution that models predict from night to day reflects the strength of cloud sensitivity to convective mass flux and exhibits many similarities with the cloud evolution they predict under global warming, and iii) those models that simulate a realistic cloud transition over the daily cycle tend to predict weak trade cumulus feedback. Our findings thus show that the daily cycle is a particularly relevant testbed, amenable to process studies and anchored by observations, to assess and improve the model representation of cloud-convection coupling and thus make climate projections more reliable.
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Wildlife trafficking, whether local or transnational in scope, undermines sustainable development efforts, degrades cultural resources, endangers species, erodes the local and global economy, and facilitates the spread of zoonotic diseases. Wildlife trafficking networks (WTNs) occupy a unique gray space in supply chains-straddling licit and illicit networks, supporting legitimate and criminal workforces, and often demonstrating high resilience in their sourcing flexibility and adaptability. Authorities in different sectors desire, but frequently lack knowledge about how to allocate resources to disrupt illicit wildlife supply networks and prevent negative collateral impacts. Novel conceptualizations and a deeper scientific understanding of WTN structures are needed to help unravel the dynamics of interaction between disruption and resilience while accommodating socioenvironmental context. We use the case of ploughshare tortoise trafficking to help illustrate the potential of key advancements in interdisciplinary thinking. Insights herein suggest a significant need and opportunity for scientists to generate new science-based recommendations for WTN-related data collection and analysis for supply chain visibility, shifts in illicit supply chain dominance, network resilience, or limits of the supplier base.
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Animales Salvajes , Criminales , Animales , Humanos , Comercio de Vida Silvestre , Formación de Concepto , Recolección de DatosRESUMEN
In this study, we present the results of community-engaged ancient DNA research initiated after the remains of 36 African-descended individuals dating to the late 18th century were unearthed in the port city of Charleston, South Carolina. The Gullah Society of Charleston, along with other Charleston community members, initiated a collaborative genomic study of these ancestors of presumed enslaved status, in an effort to visibilize their histories. We generated 18 low-coverage genomes and 31 uniparental haplotypes to assess their genetic origins and interrelatedness. Our results indicate that they have predominantly West and West-Central African genomic ancestry, with one individual exhibiting some genomic affiliation with populations in the Americas. Most were assessed as genetic males, and no autosomal kin were identified among them. Overall, this study expands our understanding of the colonial histories of African descendant populations in the US South.
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Población Negra , ADN Antiguo , Humanos , Masculino , Población Negra/genética , ADN Mitocondrial/genética , Genómica , Haplotipos/genética , South Carolina/etnologíaRESUMEN
Regeneration, regrowing lost and injured body parts, is an ability that generally declines with age or developmental transitions (i.e. metamorphosis, sexual maturation). Regeneration is also an energetically costly process, and trade-offs occur between regeneration and other costly processes such as growth, or sexual reproduction. Here we investigate the interplay of regeneration, reproduction, and developmental stage in the segmented worm Platynereis dumerilii. P. dumerilii can regenerate its whole posterior body axis, along with its reproductive cells, thereby having to carry out the two costly processes (somatic and germ cell regeneration) after injury. We specifically examine how developmental stage affects the success of germ cell regeneration and sexual maturation in developmentally young versus developmentally old organisms. We hypothesized that developmentally younger individuals (i.e. with gametes in early mitotic stages) will have higher regeneration success than the individuals at developmentally older stages (i.e. with gametes undergoing meiosis and maturation). Surprisingly, older amputated worms grew faster and matured earlier than younger amputees. To analyze germ cell regeneration during and after posterior regeneration, we used Hybridization Chain Reaction for the germline marker vasa. We found that regenerated worms start repopulating new segments with germ cell clusters as early as 14 days post amputation. In addition, vasa expression is observed in a wide region of newly-regenerated segments, which appears different from expression patterns during normal growth or regeneration in worms before gonial cluster expansion.
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Células Germinativas , Regeneración , Maduración Sexual , Animales , Regeneración/fisiología , Maduración Sexual/fisiología , Poliquetos/genética , Poliquetos/fisiologíaRESUMEN
Microbial communities are ubiquitous in nature and play an important role in ecology and human health. Cross-feeding is thought to be core to microbial communities, though it remains unclear precisely why it emerges. Why have multi-species microbial communities evolved in many contexts and what protects microbial consortia from invasion? Here, we review recent insights into the emergence and stability of coexistence in microbial communities. A particular focus is the long-term evolutionary stability of coexistence, as observed for microbial communities that spontaneously evolved in the E. coli long-term evolution experiment (LTEE). We analyze these findings in the context of recent work on trade-offs between competing microbial objectives, which can constitute a mechanistic basis for the emergence of coexistence. Coexisting communities, rather than monocultures of the 'fittest' single strain, can form stable endpoints of evolutionary trajectories. Hence, the emergence of coexistence might be an obligatory outcome in the evolution of microbial communities. This implies that rather than embodying fragile metastable configurations, some microbial communities can constitute formidable ecosystems that are difficult to disrupt.
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Evolución Biológica , Escherichia coli , Microbiota , Escherichia coli/genética , Consorcios Microbianos , EcosistemaRESUMEN
The discrete steps of transcriptional rewiring have been proposed to occur neutrally to ensure steady gene expression under stabilizing selection. A conflict-free switch of a regulon between regulators may require an immediate compensatory evolution to minimize deleterious effects. Here, we perform an evolutionary repair experiment on the Lachancea kluyveri yeast sef1Δ mutant using a suppressor development strategy. Complete loss of SEF1 forces cells to initiate a compensatory process for the pleiotropic defects arising from misexpression of TCA cycle genes. Using different selective conditions, we identify two adaptive loss-of-function mutations of IRA1 and AZF1. Subsequent analyses show that Azf1 is a weak transcriptional activator regulated by the Ras1-PKA pathway. Azf1 loss-of-function triggers extensive gene expression changes responsible for compensatory, beneficial, and trade-off phenotypes. The trade-offs can be alleviated by higher cell density. Our results not only indicate that secondary transcriptional perturbation provides rapid and adaptive mechanisms potentially stabilizing the initial stage of transcriptional rewiring but also suggest how genetic polymorphisms of pleiotropic mutations could be maintained in the population.
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Redes Reguladoras de Genes , Factores de Transcripción , Factores de Transcripción/genética , Factores de Transcripción/metabolismo , Saccharomyces cerevisiae/genética , Saccharomyces cerevisiae/metabolismo , Mutación , FenotipoRESUMEN
Disasters cause sweeping damage, hardship, and loss of life. In this article, we first consider the dominant psychological approach to disasters and its narrow focus on psychopathology (e.g., posttraumatic stress disorder). We then review research on a broader approach that has identified heterogeneous, highly replicable trajectories of outcome, the most common being stable mental health or resilience. We review trajectory research for different types of disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. Next, we consider correlates of the resilience trajectory and note their paradoxically limited ability to predict future resilient outcomes. Research using machine learning algorithms improved prediction but has not yet illuminated the mechanism behind resilient adaptation. To that end, we propose a more direct psychological explanation for resilience based on research on the motivational and mechanistic components of regulatory flexibility. Finally, we consider how future research might leverage new computational approaches to better capture regulatory flexibility in real time.