Climate warming increases extreme daily wildfire growth risk in California.

California has experienced enhanced extreme wildfire behaviour in recent years1-3, leading to substantial loss of life and property4,5. Some portion of the change in wildfire behaviour is attributable to anthropogenic climate warming, but formally quantifying this contribution is difficult because of numerous confounding factors6,7 and because wildfires are below the grid scale of global climate models. Here we use machine learning to quantify empirical relationships between temperature (as well as the influence of temperature on aridity) and the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth (>10,000 acres) in California and find that the influence of temperature on the risk is primarily mediated through its influence on fuel moisture. We use the uncovered relationships to estimate the changes in extreme daily wildfire growth risk under anthropogenic warming by subjecting historical fires from 2003 to 2020 to differing background climatological temperatures and aridity conditions. We find that the influence of anthropogenic warming on the risk of extreme daily wildfire growth varies appreciably on a fire-by-fire and day-by-day basis, depending on whether or not climate warming pushes conditions over certain thresholds of aridity, such as 1.5 kPa of vapour-pressure deficit and 10% dead fuel moisture. So far, anthropogenic warming has enhanced the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth by 25% (5-95 range of 14-36%), on average, relative to preindustrial conditions. But for some fires, there was approximately no change, and for other fires, the enhancement has been as much as 461%. When historical fires are subjected to a range of projected end-of-century conditions, the aggregate expected frequency of extreme daily wildfire growth events increases by 59% (5-95 range of 47-71%) under a low SSP1-2.6 emissions scenario compared with an increase of 172% (5-95 range of 156-188%) under a very high SSP5-8.5 emissions scenario, relative to preindustrial conditions.

Genetic continuity and change among the Indigenous peoples of California.

Before the colonial period, California harboured more language variation than all of Europe, and linguistic and archaeological analyses have led to many hypotheses to explain this diversity1. We report genome-wide data from 79 ancient individuals from California and 40 ancient individuals from Northern Mexico dating to 7,400-200 years before present (BP). Our analyses document long-term genetic continuity between people living on the Northern Channel Islands of California and the adjacent Santa Barbara mainland coast from 7,400 years BP to modern Chumash groups represented by individuals who lived around 200 years BP. The distinctive genetic lineages that characterize present-day and ancient people from Northwest Mexico increased in frequency in Southern and Central California by 5,200 years BP, providing evidence for northward migrations that are candidates for spreading Uto-Aztecan languages before the dispersal of maize agriculture from Mexico2-4. Individuals from Baja California share more alleles with the earliest individual from Central California in the dataset than with later individuals from Central California, potentially reflecting an earlier linguistic substrate, whose impact on local ancestry was diluted by later migrations from inland regions1,5. After 1,600 years BP, ancient individuals from the Channel Islands lived in communities with effective sizes similar to those in pre-agricultural Caribbean and Patagonia, and smaller than those on the California mainland and in sampled regions of Mexico.

Planning for post-pandemic cancer care delivery: Recovery or opportunity for redesign?

The delivery of cancer care has never changed as rapidly and dramatically as we have seen with the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. During the early phase of the pandemic, recommendations for the management of oncology patients issued by various professional societies and government agencies did not recognize the significant regional differences in the impact of the pandemic. California initially experienced lower than expected numbers of cases, and the health care system did not experience the same degree of the burden that had been the case in other parts of the country. In light of promising trends in COVID-19 infections and mortality in California, by late April 2020, discussions were initiated for a phased recovery of full-scale cancer services. However, by July 2020, a surge of cases was reported across the nation, including in California. In this review, the authors share the response and recovery planning experience of the University of California (UC) Cancer Consortium in an effort to provide guidance to oncology practices. The UC Cancer Consortium was established in 2017 to bring together 5 UC Comprehensive Cancer Centers: UC Davis Comprehensive Cancer Center, UC Los Angeles Jonsson Comprehensive Cancer Center, UC Irvine Chao Family Comprehensive Cancer Center, UC San Diego Moores Cancer Center, and the UC San Francisco Helen Diller Family Comprehensive Cancer Center. The interventions implemented in each of these cancer centers are highlighted, with a focus on opportunities for a redesign in care delivery models. The authors propose that their experiences gained during this pandemic will enhance pre-pandemic cancer care delivery.

Small rainfall changes drive substantial changes in plant coexistence.

Although precipitation patterns have long been known to shape plant distributions1, the effect of changing climate on the interactions of species and therefore community composition is far less understood2,3. Here, we explored how changes in precipitation alter competitive dynamics via direct effects on individual species, as well as by the changing strength of competitive interactions between species, using an annual grassland community in California. We grew plants under ambient and reduced precipitation in the field to parameterize a competition model4 with which we quantified the stabilizing niche and fitness differences that determine species coexistence in each rainfall regime. We show that reduced precipitation had little direct effect on species grown alone, but it qualitatively shifted predicted competitive outcomes for 10 of 15 species pairs. In addition, species pairs that were functionally more similar were less likely to experience altered outcomes, indicating that functionally diverse communities may be most threatened by changing interactions. Our results highlight how important it is to account for changes to species interactions when predicting species and community response to global change.

Widespread woody plant use of water stored in bedrock.

In the past several decades, field studies have shown that woody plants can access substantial volumes of water from the pores and fractures of bedrock1-3. If, like soil moisture, bedrock water storage serves as an important source of plant-available water, then conceptual paradigms regarding water and carbon cycling may need to be revised to incorporate bedrock properties and processes4-6. Here we present a lower-bound estimate of the contribution of bedrock water storage to transpiration across the continental United States using distributed, publicly available datasets. Temporal and spatial patterns of bedrock water use across the continental United States indicate that woody plants extensively access bedrock water for transpiration. Plants across diverse climates and biomes access bedrock water routinely and not just during extreme drought conditions. On an annual basis in California, the volumes of bedrock water transpiration exceed the volumes of water stored in human-made reservoirs, and woody vegetation that accesses bedrock water accounts for over 50% of the aboveground carbon stocks in the state. Our findings indicate that plants commonly access rock moisture, as opposed to groundwater, from bedrock and that, like soil moisture, rock moisture is a critical component of terrestrial water and carbon cycling.

Pollinators contribute to the maintenance of flowering plant diversity.

Mechanisms that favour rare species are key to the maintenance of diverse communities1-3. One of the most critical tasks for conservation of flowering plant biodiversity is to understand how plant-pollinator interactions contribute to the maintenance of rare species4-7. Here we show that niche partitioning in pollinator use and asymmetric facilitation confer fitness advantage of rarer species in a biodiversity hotspot using phylogenetic structural equation modelling that integrates plant-pollinator and interspecific pollen transfer networks with floral functional traits. Co-flowering species filtered pollinators via floral traits, and rarer species showed greater pollinator specialization leading to higher pollination-mediated male and female fitness than more abundant species. When plants shared pollinator resources, asymmetric facilitation via pollen transport dynamics benefitted the rarer species at the cost of more abundant species, serving as an alternative diversity-promoting mechanism. Our results emphasize the importance of community-wide plant-pollinator interactions that affect reproduction for biodiversity maintenance.

Behavioural nudges increase COVID-19 vaccinations.

Enhancing vaccine uptake is a critical public health challenge1. Overcoming vaccine hesitancy2,3 and failure to follow through on vaccination intentions3 requires effective communication strategies3,4. Here we present two sequential randomized controlled trials to test the effect of behavioural interventions on the uptake of COVID-19 vaccines. We designed text-based reminders that make vaccination salient and easy, and delivered them to participants drawn from a healthcare system one day (first randomized controlled trial) (n = 93,354 participants; clinicaltrials number NCT04800965) and eight days (second randomized controlled trial) (n = 67,092 individuals; clinicaltrials number NCT04801524) after they received a notification of vaccine eligibility. The first reminder boosted appointment and vaccination rates within the healthcare system by 6.07 (84%) and 3.57 (26%) percentage points, respectively; the second reminder increased those outcomes by 1.65 and 1.06 percentage points, respectively. The first reminder had a greater effect when it was designed to make participants feel ownership of the vaccine dose. However, we found no evidence that combining the first reminder with a video-based information intervention designed to address vaccine hesitancy heightened its effect. We performed online studies (n = 3,181 participants) to examine vaccination intentions, which revealed patterns that diverged from those of the first randomized controlled trial; this underscores the importance of pilot-testing interventions in the field. Our findings inform the design of behavioural nudges for promoting health decisions5, and highlight the value of making vaccination easy and inducing feelings of ownership over vaccines.

Climate change and California's terrestrial biodiversity.

In this review and synthesis, we argue that California is an important test case for the nation and world because terrestrial biodiversity is very high, present and anticipated threats to biodiversity from climate change and other interacting stressors are severe, and innovative approaches to protecting biodiversity in the context of climate change are being developed and tested. We first review salient dimensions of California's terrestrial physical, biological, and human diversity. Next, we examine four facets of the threat to their sustainability of these dimensions posed by climate change: direct impacts, illustrated by a new analysis of shifting diversity hotspots for plants; interactive effects involving invasive species, land-use change, and other stressors; the impacts of changing fire regimes; and the impacts of land-based renewable energy development. We examine recent policy responses in each of these areas, representing attempts to better protect biodiversity while advancing climate adaptation and mitigation. We conclude that California's ambitious 30 × 30 Initiative and its efforts to harmonize biodiversity conservation with renewable energy development are important areas of progress. Adapting traditional suppression-oriented fire policies to the reality of new fire regimes is an area in which much progress remains to be made.

Historical redlining is associated with disparities in wildlife biodiversity in four California cities.

Legacy effects describe the persistent, long-term impacts on an ecosystem following the removal of an abiotic or biotic feature. Redlining, a policy that codified racial segregation and disinvestment in minoritized neighborhoods, has produced legacy effects with profound impacts on urban ecosystem structure and health. These legacies have detrimentally impacted public health outcomes, socioeconomic stability, and environmental health. However, the collateral impacts of redlining on wildlife communities are uncertain. Here, we investigated whether faunal biodiversity was associated with redlining. We used home-owner loan corporation (HOLC) maps [grades A (i.e., "best" and "greenlined"), B, C, and D (i.e., "hazardous" and "redlined")] across four cities in California and contributory science data (iNaturalist) to estimate alpha and beta diversity across six clades (mammals, birds, insects, arachnids, reptiles, and amphibians) as a function of HOLC grade. We found that in greenlined neighborhoods, unique species were detected with less sampling effort, with redlined neighborhoods needing over 8,000 observations to detect the same number of unique species. Historically redlined neighborhoods had lower native and nonnative species richness compared to greenlined neighborhoods across each city, with disparities remaining at the clade level. Further, community composition (i.e., beta diversity) consistently differed among HOLC grades for all cities, including large differences in species assemblage observed between green and redlined neighborhoods. Our work spotlights the lasting effects of social injustices on the community ecology of cities, emphasizing that urban conservation and management efforts must incorporate an antiracist, justice-informed lens to improve biodiversity in urban environments.

Cultivating climate resilience in California agriculture: Adaptations to an increasingly volatile water future.

California agriculture will undergo significant transformations over the next few decades in response to climate extremes, environmental regulation and policy encouraging environmental justice, and economic pressures that have long driven agricultural changes. With several local climates suited to a variety of crops, periodically abundant nearby precipitation, and public investments that facilitated abundant low-priced irrigation water, California hosts one of the most diverse and productive agroecosystems in the world. California farms supply nearly half of the high-nutrient fruit, tree nut, and vegetable production in the United States. Climate change impacts on productivity and profitability of California agriculture are increasing and forebode problems for standard agricultural practices, especially water use norms. We highlight many challenges California agriculture confronts under climate change through the direct and indirect impacts on the biophysical conditions and ecosystem services that drive adaptations in farm practices and water accessibility and availability. In the face of clear conflicts among competing interests, we consider ongoing and potential sustainable and equitable solutions, with particular attention to how technology and policy can facilitate progress.

The importance of geography in forecasting future fire patterns under climate change.

An increasing amount of California's landscape has burned in wildfires in recent decades, in conjunction with increasing temperatures and vapor pressure deficit due to climate change. As the wildland-urban interface expands, more people are exposed to and harmed by these extensive wildfires, which are also eroding the resilience of terrestrial ecosystems. With future wildfire activity expected to increase, there is an urgent demand for solutions that sustain healthy ecosystems and wildfire-resilient human communities. Those who manage disaster response, landscapes, and biodiversity rely on mapped projections of how fire activity may respond to climate change and other human factors. California wildfire is complex, however, and climate-fire relationships vary across the state. Given known geographical variability in drivers of fire activity, we asked whether the geographical extent of fire models used to create these projections may alter the interpretation of predictions. We compared models of fire occurrence spanning the entire state of California to models developed for individual ecoregions and then projected end-of-century future fire patterns under climate change scenarios. We trained a Maximum Entropy model with fire records and hydroclimatological variables from recent decades (1981 to 2010) as well as topographic and human infrastructure predictors. Results showed substantial variation in predictors of fire probability and mapped future projections of fire depending upon geographical extents of model boundaries. Only the ecoregion models, accounting for the unique patterns of vegetation, climate, and human infrastructure, projected an increase in fire in most forested regions of the state, congruent with predictions from other studies.

The physical soldier caste of an invasive, human-infecting flatworm is morphologically extreme and obligately sterile.

We show that the globally invasive, human-infectious flatworm, Haplorchis pumilio, possesses the most physically specialized soldier caste yet documented in trematodes. Soldiers occur in colonies infecting the first intermediate host, the freshwater snail Melanoides tuberculata, and are readily distinguishable from immature and mature reproductive worms. Soldiers possess a pharynx five times absolutely larger than those of immature and mature reproductives, lack a germinal mass, and have a different developmental trajectory than reproductives, indicating that H. pumilio soldiers constitute a reproductively sterile physical caste. Neither immature nor mature reproductives showed aggression in in vitro trials, but soldiers readily attacked heterospecific trematodes that coinfect their host. Ecologically, we calculate that H. pumilio caused ~94% of the competitive deaths in the guild of trematodes infecting its host snail in its invasive range in southern California. Despite being a dominant competitor, H. pumilio soldiers did not attack conspecifics from other colonies. All prior reports documenting division of labor and a trematode soldier caste have involved soldiers that may be able to metamorphose to the reproductive stage and have been from nonhuman-infectious marine species; this study provides clear evidence for an obligately sterile trematode soldier, while extending the phenomenon of a trematode soldier caste to freshwater and to an invasive species of global public health concern.

Measuring long-term exposure to wildfire PM2.5 in California: Time-varying inequities in environmental burden.

Wildfires have become more frequent and intense due to climate change and outdoor wildfire fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations differ from relatively smoothly varying total PM2.5. Thus, we introduced a conceptual model for computing long-term wildfire PM2.5 and assessed disproportionate exposures among marginalized communities. We used monitoring data and statistical techniques to characterize annual wildfire PM2.5 exposure based on intermittent and extreme daily wildfire PM2.5 concentrations in California census tracts (2006 to 2020). Metrics included: 1) weeks with wildfire PM2.5 < 5 µg/m3; 2) days with non-zero wildfire PM2.5; 3) mean wildfire PM2.5 during peak exposure week; 4) smoke waves (≥2 consecutive days with <15 µg/m3 wildfire PM2.5); and 5) mean annual wildfire PM2.5 concentration. We classified tracts by their racial/ethnic composition and CalEnviroScreen (CES) score, an environmental and social vulnerability composite measure. We examined associations of CES and racial/ethnic composition with the wildfire PM2.5 metrics using mixed-effects models. Averaged 2006 to 2020, we detected little difference in exposure by CES score or racial/ethnic composition, except for non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native populations, where a 1-SD increase was associated with higher exposure for 4/5 metrics. CES or racial/ethnic × year interaction term models revealed exposure disparities in some years. Compared to their California-wide representation, the exposed populations of non-Hispanic American Indian and Alaska Native (1.68×, 95% CI: 1.01 to 2.81), white (1.13×, 95% CI: 0.99 to 1.32), and multiracial (1.06×, 95% CI: 0.97 to 1.23) people were over-represented from 2006 to 2020. In conclusion, during our study period in California, we detected disproportionate long-term wildfire PM2.5 exposure for several racial/ethnic groups.

Anticipating responses to climate change and planning for resilience in California's freshwater ecosystems.

As human-caused climate changes accelerate, California will experience hydrologic and temperature conditions different than any encountered in recorded history. How will these changes affect the state's freshwater ecosystems? Rivers, lakes, and wetlands are managed as a water resource, but they also support a complex web of life, ranging from bacteria, fungi, and algae to macrophytes, woody plants, invertebrates, fish, amphibians, reptiles, birds, and mammals. In much of the state, native freshwater organisms already struggle to survive massive water diversions and dams, deteriorating water quality, extensive land cover modification for agriculture and urban development, and invasions of exotic species. In the face of climate change, we need to expand efforts to recover degraded ecosystems and to protect the resilience, health, and viability of existing ecosystems. For this, more process-based understanding of river, lake, and wetlands ecosystems is needed to forecast how systems will respond to future climate change and to our interventions. This will require 1) expanding our ability to model mechanistically how freshwater biota and ecosystems respond to environmental change; 2) hypothesis-driven monitoring and field studies; 3) education and training to build research, practitioner, stewardship, and policy capabilities; and 4) developing tools and policies for building resilient ecosystems. A goals-driven, hypothesis-informed collaboration among tribes, state (and federal) agencies, nongovernmental organizations, academicians, and consultants is needed to accomplish these goals and to advance the skills and knowledge of the future workforce of practitioners, regulators, and researchers who must live with the climate changes that are already upon us and will intensify.

Relational geographies of urban unsustainability: The entanglement of California's housing crisis with WUI growth and climate change.

One of California's most pressing social and environmental challenges is the rapid expansion of the wildlands-urban interface (WUI). Multiple issues associated with WUI growth compared to more dense and compact urban form are of concern-including greatly increased fire risk, greenhouse gas emissions, and fragmentation of habitat. However, little is understood about the factors driving this growth in the first place and, specifically, its relationship to urban-regional housing dynamics. This paper connects work in urban social science, urban and regional planning, and natural sciences to highlight the potential role of housing crises in driving displacement from the urban core to relatively more affordable exurbs, and with this, WUI growth. We analyze this relationship in California, which leads the nation in lack of affordable housing, scale of WUI growth, and many associated WUI hazards, including wildfire. We offer three related arguments: first, that California's affordable housing crisis, with its effect of driving migration to exurban areas, should be recognized as a significant urban form-related sustainability challenge; second, that to understand this challenge scholars must expand the spatial scale and analytic toolkit of both urban and WUI analysis through relational, mixed methods research; and third, that political and programmatic efforts to address California's housing crisis should undergird efforts to address WUI growth and climate change. Ultimately, we argue that expanding access to affordable urban housing can produce a more sustainable and just urban form that mitigates WUI-related climate and environmental impacts and reduces the vulnerability of growing numbers of WUI residents living in harm's way.

Climate change and public health in California: A structured review of exposures, vulnerable populations, and adaptation measures.

California faces several serious direct and indirect climate exposures that can adversely affect public health, some of which are already occurring. The public health burden now and in the future will depend on atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, underlying population vulnerabilities, and adaptation efforts. Here, we present a structured review of recent literature to examine the leading climate risks to public health in California, including extreme heat, extreme precipitation, wildfires, air pollution, and infectious diseases. Comparisons among different climate-health pathways are difficult due to inconsistencies in study design regarding spatial and temporal scales and health outcomes examined. We find, however, that the current public health burden likely affects thousands of Californians each year, depending on the exposure pathway and health outcome. Further, while more evidence exists for direct and indirect proximal health effects that are the focus of this review, distal pathways (e.g., impacts of drought on nutrition) are more uncertain but could add to this burden. We find that climate adaptation measures can provide significant health benefits, particularly in disadvantaged communities. We conclude with priority recommendations for future analyses and solution-driven policy actions.

Deep learning models map rapid plant species changes from citizen science and remote sensing data.

Anthropogenic habitat destruction and climate change are reshaping the geographic distribution of plants worldwide. However, we are still unable to map species shifts at high spatial, temporal, and taxonomic resolution. Here, we develop a deep learning model trained using remote sensing images from California paired with half a million citizen science observations that can map the distribution of over 2,000 plant species. Our model-Deepbiosphere-not only outperforms many common species distribution modeling approaches (AUC 0.95 vs. 0.88) but can map species at up to a few meters resolution and finely delineate plant communities with high accuracy, including the pristine and clear-cut forests of Redwood National Park. These fine-scale predictions can further be used to map the intensity of habitat fragmentation and sharp ecosystem transitions across human-altered landscapes. In addition, from frequent collections of remote sensing data, Deepbiosphere can detect the rapid effects of severe wildfire on plant community composition across a 2-y time period. These findings demonstrate that integrating public earth observations and citizen science with deep learning can pave the way toward automated systems for monitoring biodiversity change in real-time worldwide.

Molecular forecasting of domoic acid during a pervasive toxic diatom bloom.

In 2015, the largest recorded harmful algal bloom (HAB) occurred in the Northeast Pacific, causing nearly 100 million dollars in damages to fisheries and killing many protected marine mammals. Dominated by the toxic diatom Pseudo-nitzschia australis, this bloom produced high levels of the neurotoxin domoic acid (DA). Through molecular and transcriptional characterization of 52 near-weekly phytoplankton net-tow samples collected at a bloom hotspot in Monterey Bay, California, we identified active transcription of known DA biosynthesis (dab) genes from the three identified toxigenic species, including P. australis as the primary origin of toxicity. Elevated expression of silicon transporters (sit1) during the bloom supports the previously hypothesized role of dissolved silica (Si) exhaustion in contributing to bloom physiology and toxicity. We find that coexpression of the dabA and sit1 genes serves as a robust predictor of DA one week in advance, potentially enabling the forecasting of DA-producing HABs. We additionally present evidence that low levels of iron could have colimited the diatom population along with low Si. Iron limitation represents an overlooked driver of both toxin production and ecological success of the low-iron-adapted Pseudo-nitzschia genus during the 2015 bloom, and increasing pervasiveness of iron limitation may fuel the escalating magnitude and frequency of toxic Pseudo-nitzschia blooms globally. Our results advance understanding of bloom physiology underlying toxin production, bloom prediction, and the impact of global change on toxic blooms.

The persistent DDT footprint of ocean disposal, and ecological controls on bioaccumulation in fishes.

Globally, ocean dumping of chemical waste is a common method of disposal and relies on the assumption that dilution, diffusion, and dispersion at ocean scales will mitigate human exposure and ecosystem impacts. In southern California, extensive dumping of agrochemical waste, particularly chlorinated hydrocarbon contaminants such as DDT, via sewage outfalls and permitted offshore barging occurred for most of the last century. This study compiled a database of existing sediment and fish DDT measurements to examine how this unique legacy of regional ocean disposal translates into the contemporary contamination of the coastal ocean. We used spatiotemporal modeling to derive continuous estimates of sediment DDT contamination and show that the spatial signature of disposal (i.e., high loadings near historic dumping sites) is highly conserved in sediments. Moreover, we demonstrate that the proximity of fish to areas of high sediment loadings explained over half of the variation in fish DDT concentrations. The relationship between sediment and fish contamination was mediated by ecological predictors (e.g., species, trophic ecology, habitat use), and the relative influence of each predictor was context-dependent, with habitat exhibiting greater importance in heavily contaminated areas. Thus, despite more than half a century since the cessation of industrial dumping in the region, local ecosystem contamination continues to mirror the spatial legacy of dumping, suggesting that sediment can serve as a robust predictor of fish contamination, and general ecological characteristics offer a predictive framework for unmeasured species or locations.

A man for all seasons: reflections on the life and legacy of George Palade.

In this perspective, I review the scientific career of George E. Palade, the man many consider to be the father of cell biology. Palade's scientific contributions spanned more than 50 years (from the late 1940s to 2001) and were amazingly diverse and fundamental. He is best known for his discovery of ribosomes, for establishing their role in protein synthesis, and for delineation of the secretory pathway. In addition to these groundbreaking contributions, he also developed basic techniques for tissue preservation and cell fractionation that allowed rapid progress during the early days of cell biology, and he and his collaborators provided the first description of the mitochondrial cristae, neuronal synapses, junctional complexes in epithelia, plasmalemmal vesicles, and Weibel-Palade bodies in endothelium, among others. He and his collaborators also contributed key experimental data to our understanding not only of protein synthesis and the secretory process but also of membrane biogenesis and vascular permeability. In addition to his scientific discoveries, he had a profound impact on the lives of many cell biologists and served the scientific community tirelessly while making major contributions to the development of cell biology in three major institutions.