Temporal Trends of Great Lakes Legacy Contaminants: Ecological and Biological Considerations Applying the Age-Trend Model.

The USEPA Great Lakes Fish Monitoring and Surveillance Program (GLFMSP) has been monitoring top predator lake trout and walleye contaminant concentrations since the early 1970s. Our research revealed that select legacy contaminant groups (∑PCBs, ∑DDTs, ∑chlordanes, and ∑5PBDEs) have similar t1/2 and k2 values across the Great Lakes, with the exception of both Lake Erie sites and the Lake Superior─Keweenaw Point site. The slower halving times determined at both Lake Erie sites are consistent with legacy contaminant remobilization due to extreme weather climate effects and past remedial actions on the Detroit River, whereas the Lake Superior─Keweenaw Point site demonstrates contaminant halving times approaching the exponential minimum. Overall, Great Lakes select contaminant groupings have decreased between 25.8 and 97.9% since 2004. An age-normalized Great Lakes Contaminant Index (GLCI) was devised, indicating both Lake Michigan sites as the most highly impacted. The mean absolute deviation statistic was applied, documenting the need to age-correct contaminant trends due to highly variable age profiles. With the noted exceptions, the uniformity of age-corrected trend modeling suggests that a combination of the fundamental biological and physicochemical mechanisms of natural contaminant sequestration, declining dissolved water concentrations, accumulation/metabolism/depuration, and the overall reduction of legacy contaminant loading are driving the generally consistent rates of declines in the Great Lakes. Many of the biological and ecological stressors currently associated with climate change appear to be accounted for by the age-trend model.

The Ins and Outs of Per- and Polyfluoroalkyl Substances in the Great Lakes: The Role of Atmospheric Deposition.

As part of the Integrated Atmospheric Deposition Network, precipitation (n = 207) and air (n = 60) from five sites and water samples (n = 87) from all five Great Lakes were collected in 2021-2023 and analyzed for 41 per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). These measurements were combined with other available data to estimate the mass budget for four representative compounds, PFBA, PFBS, PFOS, and PFOA for the basin. The median Σ41PFAS concentrations in precipitation across the five sites ranged between 2.4 and 4.5 ng/L. The median Σ41PFAS concentration in lake water was highest in Lake Ontario (11 ng/L) and lowest in Lake Superior (1.3 ng/L). The median Σ41PFAS concentration in air samples was highest in Cleveland at 410 pg/m3 and lowest at Sleeping Bear Dunes at 146 pg/m3. The net mass transfer flows were generally negative for Lakes Superior, Michigan, and Huron and positive for Lakes Erie and Ontario, indicating that the three most northern lakes are accumulating PFAS and the other two are eliminating PFAS. Atmospheric deposition is an important source of PFAS, particularly for Lake Superior.

Spatiotemporal and multi-isotope assessment of metal sedimentation in the Great Lakes.

This study investigates spatiotemporal dynamics in metal sedimentation in the North American Great Lakes and their underlying biogeochemical controls. Bulk geochemical and isotope analyses of n = 72 surface and core sediment samples show that metal (Cu, Zn, Pb) concentrations and their isotopic compositions vary spatially across oligotrophic to mesotrophic settings, with intra-lake heterogeneity being similar or higher than inter-lake (basin-scale) variability. Concentrations of Cu, Zn, and Pb in sediments from Lake Huron and Lake Erie vary from 5 to 73 mg/kg, 18-580 mg/kg, and 5-168 mg/kg, respectively, but metal enrichment factors were small (<2) across the surface- and core sediments. The isotopic signatures of surface sediment Cu (δ65Cu between -1.19‰ and +0.96‰), Zn (δ66Zn between -0.09‰ and +0.41‰) and Pb (206/207Pb from 1.200 to 1.263) indicate predominantly lithogenic metal sourcing. In addition, temporal trends in sediment cores from Lake Huron and Lake Erie show uniform metal concentrations, minor enrichment, and Zn and Pb isotopic signatures suggestive of negligible in-lake biogeochemical fractionation. In contrast, Cu isotopic signatures and correlation to chlorophyll and macronutrient levels suggest more differentiation from source variability and/or redox-dependent fractionation, likely related to biological scavenging. Our results are used to derive baseline metal sedimentation fluxes and will help optimize water quality management and strategies for reducing metal loads and enrichment in the Great Lakes and beyond.

Polychlorinated biphenyls and incident coronary heart disease-related outcomes in Great Lakes fish consumers.

BACKGROUND: Exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) has been linked to risk factors for cardiovascular disease such as increased inflammation, accelerated atherosclerosis, diabetes, and sex hormone dysregulation. Furthermore, there is increasing evidence suggesting associations between internal dose of PCBs and cardiovascular outcomes. OBJECTIVES: The purpose of this study is to investigate longitudinal associations of PCBs with coronary heart disease (CHD)-related outcomes in a cohort of Great Lakes sport fish consumers. METHODS: The Great Lakes Sport Fish Consumer cohort was established in the early 1990's. Eight hundred nineteen participants were followed from 1993 to 2017. Serum PCBs were measured in 1994/1995 (baseline), in 2001, and in 2004, while health history questionnaires were administered in 1996, 2003, 2010, and 2017. Cox models were used to prospectively investigate associations of total PCBs and PCB groupings, based on aryl hydrocarbon receptor activity, with incident self-reported physician diagnosis of coronary heart disease (CHD), myocardial infarction (MI), and angina pectoris. RESULTS: A 2-fold increase in phenobarbital-type PCBs was associated with a 72% increase in likelihood of self-reported incident diagnosis of CHD (HR=1.72, 95% CI: 1.06-2.81; p=0.0294). Similar results were observed for total PCBs (HR=1.68, 95% CI: 1.05-2.69; p=0.0306) and mixed methacholine/phenobarbital type (mixed-type) PCBs (HR=1.60, 95% CI: 1.02-2.52; p=0.0427), but not methacholine-type PCBs. PCBs were not strongly associated with risk of MI or angina. CONCLUSIONS: This study presents evidence that exposure to PCBs increases the risk of developing coronary heart disease. Given the large number of risk factors and causal pathways for CHD, future research is required to better understand biological mechanisms of action for PCBs on CHD.

SARS-CoV-2 exposure in wild white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus).

Widespread human SARS-CoV-2 infections combined with human-wildlife interactions create the potential for reverse zoonosis from humans to wildlife. We targeted white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) for serosurveillance based on evidence these deer have angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors with high affinity for SARS-CoV-2, are permissive to infection, exhibit sustained viral shedding, can transmit to conspecifics, exhibit social behavior, and can be abundant near urban centers. We evaluated 624 prepandemic and postpandemic serum samples from wild deer from four US states for SARS-CoV-2 exposure. Antibodies were detected in 152 samples (40%) from 2021 using a surrogate virus neutralization test. A subset of samples tested with a SARS-CoV-2 virus neutralization test showed high concordance between tests. These data suggest white-tailed deer in the populations assessed have been exposed to SARS-CoV-2.

Decadal-scale variability and warming affect spring timing and forest growth across the western Great Lakes region.

The Great Lakes region of North America has warmed by 1-2 °C on average since pre-industrial times, with the most pronounced changes observable during winter and spring. Interannual variability in temperatures remains high, however, due to the influence of ocean-atmosphere circulation patterns that modulate the warming trend across years. Variations in spring temperatures determine growing season length and plant phenology, with implications for whole ecosystem function. Studying how both internal climate variability and the "secular" warming trend interact to produce trends in temperature is necessary to estimate potential ecological responses to future warming scenarios. This study examines how external anthropogenic forcing and decadal-scale variability influence spring temperatures across the western Great Lakes region and estimates the sensitivity of regional forests to temperature using long-term growth records from tree-rings and satellite data. Using a modeling approach designed to test for regime shifts in dynamic time series, this work shows that mid-continent spring climatology was strongly influenced by the 1976/1977 phase change in North Pacific atmospheric circulation, and that regional forests show a strengthening response to spring temperatures during the last half-century.

Phylogeography and genetic variation in Western Jacob's ladder (Polemonium occidentale) provide insights into the origin and conservation of rare species in the Great Lakes region.

The perennial herb Western Jacob's Ladder (Polemonium occidentale, Polemoniaceae) is widespread in the mountains of western North America but reappears as a disjunct in the Great Lakes Region in Minnesota and Wisconsin, USA as the narrow endemic P. occidentale subsp. lacustre. This distribution is shown by a diverse assemblage of angiosperms. It has been hypothesized that these species became isolated just after the Last Glacial Maximum, but this has not been tested. Additionally, the genetic diversity and population connectivity of the endemic Great Lakes flora has been understudied, with important conservation implications. Using genotyping-by-sequencing, we examined the relationship of P. occidentale subsp. lacustre to its closest relatives, relationships among all known populations, and genetic diversity within these populations. Polemonium occidentale subsp. lacustre represents an isolated, unique lineage that diverged from its closest relatives 1.3 Ma and arrived in the Great Lakes Region by at least 38 ka. Nearly all extant populations diverged prior to the Last Glacial Maximum, are genetically distinct, and show little within-population genetic diversity. Clonality may mitigate reduction in diversity due to drift. Mixed population signal between Wisconsin and some Minnesota populations may be due to gene flow during the Late Pleistocene. While populations of P. occidentale subsp. lacustre may be relictual from a now extinct western relative, it is best treated as a distinct species. Conservation efforts should focus more on ensuring that current populations remain rather than maintaining large populations sizes across a few populations. However, encouraging habitat heterogeneity may accomplish both simultaneously.

Quantifying long-term phenological patterns of aerial insectivores roosting in the Great Lakes region using weather surveillance radar.

Organisms have been shifting their timing of life history events (phenology) in response to changes in the emergence of resources induced by climate change. Yet understanding these patterns at large scales and across long time series is often challenging. Here we used the US weather surveillance radar network to collect data on the timing of communal swallow and martin roosts and evaluate the scale of phenological shifts and its potential association with temperature. The discrete morning departures of these aggregated aerial insectivores from ground-based roosting locations are detected by radars around sunrise. For the first time, we applied a machine learning algorithm to automatically detect and track these large-scale behaviors. We used 21 years of data from 12 weather surveillance radar stations in the Great Lakes region to quantify the phenology in roosting behavior of aerial insectivores at three spatial levels: local roost cluster, radar station, and across the Great Lakes region. We show that their peak roosting activity timing has advanced by 2.26 days per decade at the regional scale. Similar signals of advancement were found at the station scale, but not at the local roost cluster scale. Air temperature trends in the Great Lakes region during the active roosting period were predictive of later stages of roosting phenology trends (75% and 90% passage dates). Our study represents one of the longest-term broad-scale phenology examinations of avian aerial insectivore species responding to environmental change and provides a stepping stone for examining potential phenological mismatches across trophic levels at broad spatial scales.

Declining life expectancy in the Great Lakes region: contributors to Black and white longevity change across educational attainment.

BACKGROUND: The East North Central Census division (aka the Great Lakes region) experienced a decrease in life expectancy of 0.3 years from 2014 to 2016 - one of the largest declines across the nine Census divisions. Disadvantaged groups that typically have below-average life expectancy, including Black individuals and those without a college education, may have been disproportionately affected by this longevity shift. This investigation examines life expectancy changes among different sex, race, and education groups in the Great Lakes region, and how specific causes of death contributed to within-group longevity changes over time and across age. METHODS: We used 2008 to 2017 death counts from the National Center for Health Statistics and American Community Survey population estimates to measure within-group change in life expectancy at age 25 among non-Hispanic Black and white males and females by educational attainment. We decomposed life expectancy change over time for each subgroup by 24 causes of death and measured their contribution to longevity change across 13 age groups. RESULTS: Among persons with ≤ 12 years of education, white males and females experienced 1.3- and 1.7-year longevity declines respectively, compared to a 0.6-year decline among Black males and a 0.3-year decline among Black females. Life expectancy declined among all groups with 13-15 years of education, but especially Black females, who experienced a 2.2-year loss. With the exception of Black males, all groups with 16 + years of education experienced longevity gains. Homicide contributed 0.34 years to longevity decline among Black males with ≤ 12 years of education. Drug poisoning made large contributions to longevity losses among Black females with ≤ 12 years of education (0.31 years), white males and females with 13-15 years of education (0.35 and 0.21 years, respectively), and white males and females with ≤ 12 years of education (0.92 and 0.65 years, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: Public health efforts to reduce the risks of homicide among Black males without a college education and drug poisoning among all groups could improve life expectancy and reduce racial and educational longevity disparities in the Great Lakes region.

Human disturbance increases trophic niche overlap in terrestrial carnivore communities.

Animal foraging and competition are defined by the partitioning of three primary niche axes: space, time, and resources. Human disturbance is rapidly altering the spatial and temporal niches of animals, but the impact of humans on resource consumption and partitioning-arguably the most important niche axis-is poorly understood. We assessed resource consumption and trophic niche partitioning as a function of human disturbance at the individual, population, and community levels using stable isotope analysis of 684 carnivores from seven communities in North America. We detected significant responses to human disturbance at all three levels of biological organization: individual carnivores consumed more human food subsidies in disturbed landscapes, leading to significant increases in trophic niche width and trophic niche overlap among species ranging from mesocarnivores to apex predators. Trophic niche partitioning is the primary mechanism regulating coexistence in many communities, and our results indicate that humans fundamentally alter resource niches and competitive interactions among terrestrial consumers. Among carnivores, niche overlap can trigger interspecific competition and intraguild predation, while the consumption of human foods significantly increases human-carnivore conflict. Our results suggest that human disturbances, especially in the form of food subsidies, may threaten carnivores by increasing the probability of both interspecific competition and human-carnivore conflict. Ultimately, these findings illustrate a potential decoupling of predator-prey dynamics, with impacts likely cascading to populations, communities, and ecosystems.

Role of candidate gene variants in modulating the risk and severity of alcoholic hepatitis.

BACKGROUND: Alcoholic hepatitis (AH) is a severe and life-threatening alcohol-associated liver disease. Only a minority of heavy drinkers acquires AH and severity varies among affected individuals, suggesting a genetic basis for the susceptibility to and severity of AH. METHODS: A cohort consisting of 211 patients with AH and 176 heavy drinking controls was genotyped for five variants in five candidate genes that have been associated with chronic liver diseases: rs738409 in patatin-like phospholipase domain-containing protein 3 (PNPLA3), rs72613567 in hydroxysteroid 17-beta dehydrogenase 13 (HSD17B13), rs58542926 in transmembrane 6 superfamily member 2 (TM6SF2), rs641738 in membrane bound O-acyltransferase domain containing 7 (MBOAT7), and a copy number variant in the haptoglobin (HP) gene. We tested the effects of individual variants and the combined/interacting effects of variants on AH risk and severity. RESULTS: We found significant associations between AH risk and the risk alleles of rs738409 (p = 0.0081) and HP (p = 0.0371), but not rs72613567 (p = 0.3132), rs58542926 (p = 0.2180), or rs641738 (p = 0.7630), after adjusting for patient's age and sex. A multiple regression model indicated that PNPLA3 rs738409:G [OR = 1.59 (95% CI: 1.15-2.22), p = 0.0055] and HP*2 [OR = 1.38 (95% CI: 1.04-1.82), p = 0.0245], when combined and adjusted for age and sex also had a large influence on AH risk among heavy drinkers. In the entire cohort, variants in PNPLA3 and HP were associated with increased total bilirubin and Model for End-stage Liver Disease (MELD) score, both measures of AH severity. The HSD17B13 rs72613567:AA allele was not found to reduce risk of AH in patients carrying the G allele of PNPLA3 rs738409 (p = 0.0921). CONCLUSION: PNPLA3 and HP genetic variants increase AH risk and are associated with total bilirubin and MELD score, surrogates of AH severity.

Polychlorinated Naphthalenes across the Great Lakes: Lake Trout and Walleye Concentrations, Trends, and TEQ Assessment-2004-2018.

Polychlorinated naphthalenes (PCNs) were measured in lake trout and walleye over the period 2004-2018, utilizing isotope dilution techniques with high-resolution gas chromatography/high-resolution mass spectrometry to assess concentrations and toxic equivalence (TEQ). An age-trend model was applied to mitigate the effect of a changing lake trout age structure. Most Great Lakes Fish Monitoring and Surveillance Program sampling sites demonstrated significant half-life and percent decreases for lake trout total PCNs and total TEQ over the 2004-2018 period, the exceptions being Lake Erie lake trout and walleye which illustrated increasing concentrations. Great Lakes total PCN concentrations ranged between 5701 and 100 pg/g ww, whereas total PCN TEQ concentrations ranged between 8.89 and 0.13 pg-TEQ/g ww. Based on the average number of chlorines per naphthalene, we determined that the overall lake trout and walleye PCN congener distribution has significantly shifted to a lower-chlorinated composition in the Great Lakes (5.33 to 4.48 Cl/CN) and has resulted in a substantial 59.1% reduction of the overall total PCN TEQ burden. A prominent PCN concentration trend breakpoint was observed in Lake Ontario lake trout over the 2012-2016 period likely associated with hazardous waste cleanups, channel dredging, and spoils disposal in the Detroit River and western-basin of Lake Erie.

Nontargeted Discovery of Novel Contaminants in the Great Lakes Region: A Comparison of Fish Fillets and Fish Consumers.

Sport fish fillets and human sera (fish consumers) were collected in the Lake Superior and Lake Michigan basin and screened for novel contaminants using the isotopic profile deconvoluted chromatogram (IPDC) algorithm. The IPDC algorithm was extended beyond traditional Cl/Br filters to detect additional potential bioaccumulative and toxic (PBT) such as perfluoroalkyl substances (PFAS). The IPDC algorithm screened for approximately 13.5 million theoretical molecular formulas. Additional algorithm modules were developed to detect data independent MS/MS fragmentation products and a retention time index calculator using a series of 13C-labeled perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (13C-PFCAs). Ten potential compound classes were isolated including six untargeted PFAS, six homologue groups of polyfluorinated carboxylic acids, polyfluorinated telomer alcohols (PoFTOHs), two hydroxylated polychlorobiphenyls, pesticides, herbicides, antifungals, pharmaceuticals, artificial sweeteners, and personal care products with minimal postprocessing efforts. The algorithm isolated 48 ubiquitous PoFTOHs in both fish fillet and serum of fish consumers suggesting a region wide distribution of this class of compounds. The 3, 4, and 7 fluorine substituted PoFTOH were the most abundant congeners in both biological matrices.

Regional and global perspectives of honey as a record of lead in the environment.

Honey from Apis mellifera is a useful and inexpensive biomonitor for mapping metal distributions in urban centers. The sampling resolution of a biomonitoring survey (e.g., city versus global scale) determines which geochemical processes are reflected in the results. This study presents Pb isotopic compositions and metal concentrations in honey from around the world, sampled at varying resolutions: honey from Canada (n = 21), the United States (n = 111), Belgium (n = 25), and New Zealand (n = 10), with additional samples from Afghanistan, Brazil, Cuba, Germany, Liberia, Taiwan, and Turkey. Honey was sampled at high resolution in two uniquely different land-use settings (New York Metro Area and the Hawaiian island of Kaua'i), at regional-scale resolution in eastern North America (including the Great Lakes region), and Pb isotopic compositions of all samples were compared on a global scale. At high sampling resolution, metal concentrations in honey reveal spatially significant concentration gradients: in New York City, metals associated with human activity and city infrastructure (e.g., Pb, Sb, Ti, V) are more concentrated in honey collected within the city compared to honey from upstate New York, and metal concentrations in honey from Kaua'i suggest polluting effects of nearby agricultural operations. At lower resolution (regional and global scales), lead isotopic compositions of honey are more useful than metal concentrations in revealing large-scale Pb processes (e.g., the enduring legacy of global leaded gasoline use throughout the twentieth century) and the continental origin of the honey. Lead isotopic compositions of honey collected from N. America (especially from the eastern USA) are more radiogenic (206Pb/207Pb: 1.132-1.253, 208Pb/206Pb: 2.001-2.129) compared to European honey, and honey from New Zealand, which has the least radiogenic isotopic compositions measured in this study (206Pb/207Pb: 1.077-1.160, 208Pb/206Pb: 2.090-2.187). Thus, biomonitoring using honey at different resolutions reflects differing processes and, to some extent, a honey terroir defined by the Pb isotopic composition. The data presented here provide important (and current) global context for future studies that utilize Pb isotopes in honey. Moreover, this study exhibits community science in action, as most of the honey was collected by collaborators around the world, working directly with local apiarists and hobby beekeepers.

Weather Conditions Conducive for the Early-Season Production and Dispersal of Cercospora beticola Spores in the Great Lakes Region of North America.

In many parts of the world including the Great Lakes region of North America, Cercospora leaf spot (CLS), caused by the fungal pathogen Cercospora beticola, is a major foliar disease of sugar beet (Beta vulgaris). Management of CLS involves an integrated approach which includes the application of fungicides. To guide fungicide application timings, disease prediction models are widely used by sugar beet growers in North America. While these models have generally worked well, they have not included information about pathogen presence. Thus, incorporating spore production and dispersal could make them more effective. The current study used sentinel beets to assess the presence of C. beticola spores in the environment early in the 2017 and 2018 growing seasons. Weather variables including air temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, leaf wetness, wind speed, and solar radiation were collected. These data were used to identify environmental variables that correlated with spore levels during a time when CLS is not generally observed in commercial fields. C. beticola spores were detected during mid-April both years, which is much earlier than previously reported. A correlation was found between spore data and all the weather variables examined during at least one of the two years, except for air temperature. In both years, spore presence was significantly correlated with rainfall (P < 0.0001) as well as relative humidity (P < 0.0090). Rainfall was particularly intriguing, with an adjusted R2 of 0.3135 in 2017 and 0.1652 in 2018. Efforts are ongoing to investigate information on spore presence to improve prediction models and CLS management.

Henneguya michiganensis n. sp. (Cnidaria: Myxosporea) from the gills of muskellunge Esox masquinongy Mitchill(Esociformes: Esocidae).

Henneguya Thélohan, 1892 is the second most species rich genus of myxozoans, with reports from freshwater and marine fish worldwide. In the Great Lakes region of North America, muskellunge Esox masquinongy is an important game fish species that serves as an apex predator in the ecosystems of many inland lakes. The myxozoan fauna of esocid fish, especially muskellunge, remains largely understudied. During fish health assessments, muskellunge were examined for parasitic infections and myxozoan pseudocysts were observed on gill clip wet mounts. When ruptured under pressure, the intralamellar pseudocysts released thousands of myxospores consistent with those of the genus Henneguya. The myxospores were 67.3-96.6 (79.1 ± 5.9) µm in total length. The spore body was 18.6-22.6 (20.9 ± 1.0) µm × 5.4-6.9 (6.3 ± 0.4) µm in valvular view and 3.5-4.0 (3.8 ± 0.3) µm wide in sutural view. The two pyriform polar capsules positioned at the anterior of the spore body were 6.4-7.7 (7.0 ± 0.4) µm × 1.8-2.1 (2.0 ± 0.1) µm and each contained a tightly coiled polar filament with 9-10 turns. Two tapering caudal processes extended from the posterior of the spore body and were 47.3-75.6 (58.3 ± 5.8) µm in length. Histologically, large intralamellar polysporic plasmodia were surrounded by plump pillar cells and a distinct layer of plasma. Mild inflammation was present peripherally, with small numbers of necrotic germinative cells and intraplasmodial phagocytes internally. Ribosomal 18S rRNA gene sequence data were obtained from three gill pseudocysts. The three ~2000-bp sequences were identical, but shared no significant similarity with any publicly available sequence data. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated sequence data from this Henneguya fell within a well-supported clade of Henneguya spp. reported from northern pike Esox lucius in Europe. Based on the distinct morphological, histological and molecular data, this species is designated as Henneguya michiganensis n. sp. from muskellunge in Michigan, USA.

Among-family variation in survival and gene expression uncovers adaptive genetic variation in a threatened fish.

Variation in among-family transcriptional responses to different environmental conditions can help to identify adaptive genetic variation, even prior to a selective event. Coupling differential gene expression with formal survival analyses allows for the disentanglement of treatment effects, required for understanding how individuals plastically respond to environmental stressors, from the adaptive genetic variation responsible for differential survival. We combined these two approaches to investigate responses to an emerging conservation issue, thiamine (vitamin B1 ) deficiency, in a threatened population of Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar). Thiamine is an essential vitamin that is increasingly limited in many ecosystems. In Lake Champlain, Atlantic salmon cannot acquire thiamine in sufficient quantities to support natural reproduction; fertilized eggs must be reared in hatcheries and treated with supplemental thiamine. We evaluated transcriptional responses (via RNA sequencing) to thiamine treatment across families and found 3,616 genes differentially expressed between control (no supplemental thiamine) and treatment individuals. Fewer genes changed expression equally across families (i.e., additively) than exhibited genotype × environment interactions in response to thiamine. Differentially expressed genes were related to known physiological effects of thiamine deficiency, including oxidative stress, cardiovascular irregularities and neurological abnormalities. We also identified 1,446 putatively adaptive genes that were strongly associated with among-family survival in the absence of thiamine treatment, many of which related to neurogenesis and visual perception. Our results highlight the utility of coupling RNA sequencing with formal survival analyses to identify candidate genes that underlie the among-family variation in survival required for an adaptive response to natural selection.

Structure and parameter uncertainty in centennial projections of forest community structure and carbon cycling.

Secondary forest regrowth shapes community succession and biogeochemistry for decades, including in the Upper Great Lakes region. Vegetation models encapsulate our understanding of forest function, and whether models can reproduce multi-decadal succession patterns is an indication of our ability to predict forest responses to future change. We test the ability of a vegetation model to simulate C cycling and community composition during 100 years of forest regrowth following stand-replacing disturbance, asking (a) Which processes and parameters are most important to accurately model Upper Midwest forest succession? (b) What is the relative importance of model structure versus parameter values to these predictions? We ran ensembles of the Ecosystem Demography model v2.2 with different representations of processes important to competition for light. We compared the magnitude of structural and parameter uncertainty and assessed which sub-model-parameter combinations best reproduced observed C fluxes and community composition. On average, our simulations underestimated observed net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) after 100 years and predicted complete dominance by a single plant functional type (PFT). Out of 4,000 simulations, only nine fell within the observed range of both NPP and LAI, but these predicted unrealistically complete dominance by either early hardwood or pine PFTs. A different set of seven simulations were ecologically plausible but under-predicted observed NPP and LAI. Parameter uncertainty was large; NPP and LAI ranged from ~0% to >200% of their mean value, and any PFT could become dominant. The two parameters that contributed most to uncertainty in predicted NPP were plant-soil water conductance and growth respiration, both unobservable empirical coefficients. We conclude that (a) parameter uncertainty is more important than structural uncertainty, at least for ED-2.2 in Upper Midwest forests and (b) simulating both productivity and plant community composition accurately without physically unrealistic parameters remains challenging for demographic vegetation models.

Future winters present a complex energetic landscape of decreased costs and reduced risk for a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus).

Winter climate warming is rapidly leading to changes in snow depth and soil temperatures across mid- and high-latitude ecosystems, with important implications for survival and distribution of species that overwinter beneath the snow. Amphibians are a particularly vulnerable group to winter climate change because of the tight coupling between their body temperature and metabolic rate. Here, we used a mechanistic microclimate model coupled to an animal biophysics model to predict the spatially explicit effects of future climate change on the wintering energetics of a freeze-tolerant amphibian, the Wood Frog (Lithobates sylvaticus), across its distributional range in the eastern United States. Our below-the-snow microclimate simulations were driven by dynamically downscaled climate projections from a regional climate model coupled to a one-dimensional model of the Laurentian Great Lakes. We found that warming soil temperatures and decreasing winter length have opposing effects on Wood Frog winter energy requirements, leading to geographically heterogeneous implications for Wood Frogs. While energy expenditures and peak body ice content were predicted to decline in Wood Frogs across most of our study region, we identified an area of heightened energetic risk in the northwestern part of the Great Lakes region where energy requirements were predicted to increase. Because Wood Frogs rely on body stores acquired in fall to fuel winter survival and spring breeding, increased winter energy requirements have the potential to impact local survival and reproduction. Given the geographically variable and intertwined drivers of future under-snow conditions (e.g., declining snow depths, rising air temperatures, shortening winters), spatially explicit assessments of species energetics and risk will be important to understanding the vulnerability of subnivium-adapted species.

Concentrations and Long-Term Temporal Trends of Hexabromocyclododecanes (HBCDD) in Lake Trout and Walleye from the Great Lakes.

Hexabromocyclododecane (HBCDD) is a hazardous, persistent, bioaccumlative brominated flame retardant. To investigate how its use has affected the Great Lakes, total HBCDD (∑HBCDD) concentrations and temporal trends in homogenized whole fish samples from the Great Lakes region (1978 to 2016) were determined. ∑HBCDD concentrations (ng/g ww) for each lake are Erie (0.49-2.60), Ontario (3.12-8.90), Michigan (3.91-9.01), Superior (5.69-13.1), and Huron (5.57-13.7). Early years (1978 to 1992) showed no significant trend. However, recent trends (2004 to 2016) suggest concentrations are increasing in Lakes Erie and Ontario, decreasing in Lakes Superior and Michigan, and not changing in Lake Huron. Decreasing trends for Lakes Superior and Michigan are likely the result of decreased usage of the compound globally, regionally, and locally. For the other lakes, increasing or zero trends are consistent with food web changes due to invasive species and climate change, which has caused more intense storms and less ice cover leading to increased sediment resuspension.