Tree islands enhance biodiversity and functioning in oil palm landscapes.

In the United Nations Decade on Ecosystem Restoration1, large knowledge gaps persist on how to increase biodiversity and ecosystem functioning in cash crop-dominated tropical landscapes2. Here, we present findings from a large-scale, 5-year ecosystem restoration experiment in an oil palm landscape enriched with 52 tree islands, encompassing assessments of ten indicators of biodiversity and 19 indicators of ecosystem functioning. Overall, indicators of biodiversity and ecosystem functioning, as well as multidiversity and ecosystem multifunctionality, were higher in tree islands compared to conventionally managed oil palm. Larger tree islands led to larger gains in multidiversity through changes in vegetation structure. Furthermore, tree enrichment did not decrease landscape-scale oil palm yield. Our results demonstrate that enriching oil palm-dominated landscapes with tree islands is a promising ecological restoration strategy, yet should not replace the protection of remaining forests.

Optimal nitrogen rate strategy for sustainable rice production in China.

Avoiding excessive agricultural nitrogen (N) use without compromising yields has long been a priority for both research and government policy in China1,2. Although numerous rice-related strategies have been proposed3-5, few studies have assessed their impacts on national food self-sufficiency and environmental sustainability and fewer still have considered economic risks faced by millions of smallholders. Here we established an optimal N rate strategy based on maximizing either economic (ON) or ecological (EON) performance using new subregion-specific models. Using an extensive on-farm dataset, we then assessed the risk of yield losses among smallholder farmers and the challenges of implementing the optimal N rate strategy. We find that meeting national rice production targets in 2030 is possible while concurrently reducing nationwide N consumption by 10% (6-16%) and 27% (22-32%), mitigating reactive N (Nr) losses by 7% (3-13%) and 24% (19-28%) and increasing N-use efficiency by 30% (3-57%) and 36% (8-64%) for ON and EON, respectively. This study identifies and targets subregions with disproportionate environmental impacts and proposes N rate strategies to limit national Nr pollution below proposed environmental thresholds, without compromising soil N stocks or economic benefits for smallholders. Thereafter, the preferable N strategy is allocated to each region based on the trade-off between economic risk and environmental benefit. To facilitate the adoption of the annually revised subregional N rate strategy, several recommendations were provided, including a monitoring network, fertilization quotas and smallholder subsidies.

Global and regional drivers of land-use emissions in 1961-2017.

Historically, human uses of land have transformed and fragmented ecosystems1,2, degraded biodiversity3,4, disrupted carbon and nitrogen cycles5,6 and added prodigious quantities of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to the atmosphere7,8. However, in contrast to fossil-fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, trends and drivers of GHG emissions from land management and land-use change (together referred to as 'land-use emissions') have not been as comprehensively and systematically assessed. Here we present country-, process-, GHG- and product-specific inventories of global land-use emissions from 1961 to 2017, we decompose key demographic, economic and technical drivers of emissions and we assess the uncertainties and the sensitivity of results to different accounting assumptions. Despite steady increases in population (+144 per cent) and agricultural production per capita (+58 per cent), as well as smaller increases in emissions per land area used (+8 per cent), decreases in land required per unit of agricultural production (-70 per cent) kept global annual land-use emissions relatively constant at about 11 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent until 2001. After 2001, driven by rising emissions per land area, emissions increased by 2.4 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent per decade to 14.6 gigatonnes CO2-equivalent in 2017 (about 25 per cent of total anthropogenic GHG emissions). Although emissions intensity decreased in all regions, large differences across regions persist over time. The three highest-emitting regions (Latin America, Southeast Asia and sub-Saharan Africa) dominate global emissions growth from 1961 to 2017, driven by rapid and extensive growth of agricultural production and related land-use change. In addition, disproportionate emissions are related to certain products: beef and a few other red meats supply only 1 per cent of calories worldwide, but account for 25 per cent of all land-use emissions. Even where land-use change emissions are negligible or negative, total per capita CO2-equivalent land-use emissions remain near 0.5 tonnes per capita, suggesting the current frontier of mitigation efforts. Our results are consistent with existing knowledge-for example, on the role of population and economic growth and dietary choice-but provide additional insight into regional and sectoral trends.

Intensive farming drives long-term shifts in avian community composition.

Agricultural practices constitute both the greatest cause of biodiversity loss and the greatest opportunity for conservation1,2, given the shrinking scope of protected areas in many regions. Recent studies have documented the high levels of biodiversity-across many taxa and biomes-that agricultural landscapes can support over the short term1,3,4. However, little is known about the long-term effects of alternative agricultural practices on ecological communities4,5 Here we document changes in bird communities in intensive-agriculture, diversified-agriculture and natural-forest habitats in 4 regions of Costa Rica over a period of 18 years. Long-term directional shifts in bird communities were evident in intensive- and diversified-agricultural habitats, but were strongest in intensive-agricultural habitats, where the number of endemic and International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) Red List species fell over time. All major guilds, including those involved in pest control, pollination and seed dispersal, were affected. Bird communities in intensive-agricultural habitats proved more susceptible to changes in climate, with hotter and drier periods associated with greater changes in community composition in these settings. These findings demonstrate that diversified agriculture can help to alleviate the long-term loss of biodiversity outside natural protected areas1.

National food production stabilized by crop diversity.

Increasing global food demand, low grain reserves and climate change threaten the stability of food systems on national to global scales1-5. Policies to increase yields, irrigation and tolerance of crops to drought have been proposed as stability-enhancing solutions1,6,7. Here we evaluate a complementary possibility-that greater diversity of crops at the national level may increase the year-to-year stability of the total national harvest of all crops combined. We test this crop diversity-stability hypothesis using 5 decades of data on annual yields of 176 crop species in 91 nations. We find that greater effective diversity of crops at the national level is associated with increased temporal stability of total national harvest. Crop diversity has stabilizing effects that are similar in magnitude to the observed destabilizing effects of variability in precipitation. This greater stability reflects markedly lower frequencies of years with sharp harvest losses. Diversity effects remained robust after statistically controlling for irrigation, fertilization, precipitation, temperature and other variables, and are consistent with the variance-scaling characteristics of individual crops required by theory8,9 for diversity to lead to stability. Ensuring stable food supplies is a challenge that will probably require multiple solutions. Our results suggest that increasing national effective crop diversity may be an additional way to address this challenge.

Accumulation of high-value bioproducts in planta can improve the economics of advanced biofuels.

Coproduction of high-value bioproducts at biorefineries is a key factor in making biofuels more cost-competitive. One strategy for generating coproducts is to directly engineer bioenergy crops to accumulate bioproducts in planta that can be fractionated and recovered at biorefineries. Here, we develop quantitative insights into the relationship between bioproduct market value and target accumulation rates by investigating a set of industrially relevant compounds already extracted from plant sources with a wide range of market prices and applications, including <$10/kg (limonene, latex, and polyhydroxybutyrate [PHB]), $10 to $100/kg (cannabidiol), and >$100/kg (artemisinin). These compounds are used to identify a range of mass fraction thresholds required to achieve net economic benefits for biorefineries and the additional amounts needed to reach a target $2.50/gal biofuel selling price, using cellulosic ethanol production as a test case. Bioproduct market prices and recovery costs determine the accumulation threshold; we find that moderate- to high-value compounds (i.e., cannabidiol and artemisinin) offer net economic benefits at accumulation rates of just 0.01% dry weight (dwt) to 0.02 dwt%. Lower-value compounds, including limonene, latex, and PHB, require at least an order-of-magnitude greater accumulation to overcome additional extraction and recovery costs (0.3 to 1.2 dwt%). We also find that a diversified approach is critical. For example, global artemisinin demand could be met with fewer than 10 biorefineries, while global demand for latex is equivalent to nearly 180 facilities. Our results provide a roadmap for future plant metabolic engineering efforts aimed at increasing the value derived from bioenergy crops.

Managing nitrogen for sustainable development.

Improvements in nitrogen use efficiency in crop production are critical for addressing the triple challenges of food security, environmental degradation and climate change. Such improvements are conditional not only on technological innovation, but also on socio-economic factors that are at present poorly understood. Here we examine historical patterns of agricultural nitrogen-use efficiency and find a broad range of national approaches to agricultural development and related pollution. We analyse examples of nitrogen use and propose targets, by geographic region and crop type, to meet the 2050 global food demand projected by the Food and Agriculture Organization while also meeting the Sustainable Development Goals pertaining to agriculture recently adopted by the United Nations General Assembly. Furthermore, we discuss socio-economic policies and technological innovations that may help achieve them.

Annual Crop-Yield Variation, Child Survival, and Nutrition Among Subsistence Farmers in Burkina Faso.

Whether year-to-year variation in crop yields affects the nutrition, health, and survival of subsistence-farming populations is relevant to the understanding of the potential impacts of climate change. However, the empirical evidence is limited. We examined the associations of child survival with interannual variation in food crop yield and middle-upper arm circumference (MUAC) in a subsistence-farming population of rural Burkina Faso. The study was of 44,616 children aged <5 years included in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System, 1992-2012, whose survival was analyzed in relation to the food crop yield in the year of birth (which ranged from 65% to 120% of the period average) and, for a subset of 16,698 children, to MUAC, using shared-frailty Cox proportional hazards models. Survival was appreciably worse in children born in years with low yield (full-adjustment hazard ratio = 1.11 (95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.20) for a 90th- to 10th-centile decrease in annual crop yield) and in children with small MUAC (hazard ratio = 2.72 (95% confidence interval: 2.15, 3.44) for a 90th- to 10th-centile decrease in MUAC). These results suggest an adverse impact of variations in crop yields, which could increase under climate change.

International trade drives biodiversity threats in developing nations.

Human activities are causing Earth's sixth major extinction event-an accelerating decline of the world's stocks of biological diversity at rates 100 to 1,000 times pre-human levels. Historically, low-impact intrusion into species habitats arose from local demands for food, fuel and living space. However, in today's increasingly globalized economy, international trade chains accelerate habitat degradation far removed from the place of consumption. Although adverse effects of economic prosperity and economic inequality have been confirmed, the importance of international trade as a driver of threats to species is poorly understood. Here we show that a significant number of species are threatened as a result of international trade along complex routes, and that, in particular, consumers in developed countries cause threats to species through their demand of commodities that are ultimately produced in developing countries. We linked 25,000 Animalia species threat records from the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List to more than 15,000 commodities produced in 187 countries and evaluated more than 5 billion supply chains in terms of their biodiversity impacts. Excluding invasive species, we found that 30% of global species threats are due to international trade. In many developed countries, the consumption of imported coffee, tea, sugar, textiles, fish and other manufactured items causes a biodiversity footprint that is larger abroad than at home. Our results emphasize the importance of examining biodiversity loss as a global systemic phenomenon, instead of looking at the degrading or polluting producers in isolation. We anticipate that our findings will facilitate better regulation, sustainable supply-chain certification and consumer product labelling.

Farm production, market access and dietary diversity in Malawi.

OBJECTIVE: The association between farm production diversity and dietary diversity in rural smallholder households was recently analysed. Most existing studies build on household-level dietary diversity indicators calculated from 7d food consumption recalls. Herein, this association is revisited with individual-level 24 h recall data. The robustness of the results is tested by comparing household- and individual-level estimates. The role of other factors that may influence dietary diversity, such as market access and agricultural technology, is also analysed. DESIGN: A survey of smallholder farm households was carried out in Malawi in 2014. Dietary diversity scores are calculated from 24 h recall data. Production diversity scores are calculated from farm production data covering a period of 12 months. Individual- and household-level regression models are developed and estimated. SETTING: Data were collected in sixteen districts of central and southern Malawi. SUBJECTS: Smallholder farm households (n 408), young children (n 519) and mothers (n 408). RESULTS: Farm production diversity is positively associated with dietary diversity. However, the estimated effects are small. Access to markets for buying food and selling farm produce and use of chemical fertilizers are shown to be more important for dietary diversity than diverse farm production. Results with household- and individual-level dietary data are very similar. CONCLUSIONS: Further increasing production diversity may not be the most effective strategy to improve diets in smallholder farm households. Improving access to markets, productivity-enhancing inputs and technologies seems to be more promising.

Potential Uses of Wild Germplasms of Grain Legumes for Crop Improvement.

Challenged by population increase, climatic change, and soil deterioration, crop improvement is always a priority in securing food supplies. Although the production of grain legumes is in general lower than that of cereals, the nutritional value of grain legumes make them important components of food security. Nevertheless, limited by severe genetic bottlenecks during domestication and human selection, grain legumes, like other crops, have suffered from a loss of genetic diversity which is essential for providing genetic materials for crop improvement programs. Illustrated by whole-genome-sequencing, wild relatives of crops adapted to various environments were shown to maintain high genetic diversity. In this review, we focused on nine important grain legumes (soybean, peanut, pea, chickpea, common bean, lentil, cowpea, lupin, and pigeonpea) to discuss the potential uses of their wild relatives as genetic resources for crop breeding and improvement, and summarized the various genetic/genomic approaches adopted for these purposes.

An economic assessment of the health effects and crop yield losses caused by air pollution in mainland China.

Air pollution is severe in China, and pollutants such as PM2.5 and surface O3 may cause major damage to human health and crops, respectively. Few studies have considered the health effects of PM2.5 or the loss of crop yields due to surface O3 using model-simulated air pollution data in China. We used gridded outputs from the WRF-Chem model, high resolution population data, and crop yield data to evaluate the effects on human health and crop yield in mainland China. Our results showed that outdoor PM2.5 pollution was responsible for 1.70-1.99 million cases of all-cause mortality in 2006. The economic costs of these health effects were estimated to be 151.1-176.9 billion USD, of which 90% were attributed to mortality. The estimated crop yield losses for wheat, rice, maize, and soybean were approximately 9, 4.6, 0.44, and 0.34 million tons, respectively, resulting in economic losses of 3.4 billion USD. The total economic losses due to ambient air pollution were estimated to be 154.5-180.3 billion USD, accounting for approximately 5.7%-6.6% of the total GDP of China in 2006. Our results show that both population health and staple crop yields in China have been significantly affected by exposure to air pollution. Measures should be taken to reduce emissions, improve air quality, and mitigate the economic loss.

Influence of early-life nutrition on mortality and reproductive success during a subsequent famine in a preindustrial population.

Individuals with insufficient nutrition during development often experience poorer later-life health and evolutionary fitness. The Predictive Adaptive Response (PAR) hypothesis proposes that poor early-life nutrition induces physiological changes that maximize fitness in similar environments in adulthood and that metabolic diseases result when individuals experiencing poor nutrition during development subsequently encounter good nutrition in adulthood. However, although cohort studies have shown that famine exposure in utero reduces health in favorable later-life conditions, no study on humans has demonstrated the predicted fitness benefit under low later-life nutrition, leaving the evolutionary origins of such plasticity unexplored. Taking advantage of a well-documented famine and unique datasets of individual life histories and crop yields from two preindustrial Finnish populations, we provide a test of key predictions of the PAR hypothesis. Known individuals from fifty cohorts were followed from birth until the famine, where we analyzed their survival and reproductive success in relation to the crop yields around birth. We were also able to test whether the long-term effects of early-life nutrition differed between individuals of varying socioeconomic status. We found that, contrary to predictions of the PAR hypothesis, individuals experiencing low early-life crop yields showed lower survival and fertility during the famine than individuals experiencing high early-life crop yields. These effects were more pronounced among young individuals and those of low socioeconomic status. Our results do not support the hypothesis that PARs should have been favored by natural selection and suggest that alternative models may need to be invoked to explain the epidemiology of metabolic diseases.

Generating a geospatial database of U.S. regional feedstock production for use in evaluating the environmental footprint of biofuels.

UNLABELLED: The potential environmental effects of increased U.S. biofuel production often vary depending upon the location and type of land used to produce biofuel feedstocks. However, complete, annual data are generally lacking regarding feedstock production by specific location. Corn is the dominant biofuel feedstock in the U.S., so here we present methods for estimating where bioethanol corn feedstock is grown annually and how much is used by U.S. ethanol biorefineries. We use geospatial software and publicly available data to map locations of biorefineries, estimate their corn feedstock requirements, and estimate the feedstock production locations and quantities. We combined these data and estimates into a Bioethanol Feedstock Geospatial Database (BFGD) for years 2005-2010. We evaluated the performance of the methods by assessing how well the feedstock geospatial model matched our estimates of locally-sourced feedstock demand. On average, the model met approximately 89 percent of the total estimated local feedstock demand across the studied years-within approximately 25-to-40 kilometers of the biorefinery in the majority of cases. We anticipate that these methods could be used for other years and feedstocks, and can be subsequently applied to estimate the environmental footprint of feedstock production. IMPLICATIONS: Methods used to develop the Bioethanol Feedstock Geospatial Database (BFGD) provide a means of estimating the amount and location of U.S. corn harvested for use as U.S. bioethanol feedstock. Such estimates of geospatial feedstock production may be used to evaluate environmental impacts of bioethanol production and to identify conservation priorities. The BFGD is available for 2005-2010, and the methods may be applied to additional years, locations, and potentially other biofuels and feedstocks.

Nitrogen, phosphorus, carbon and population.

Population growth makes food production increase necessary; economic growth increases demand for animal products and livestock feed. As further increase of the cropland area is ecologically undesirable, it is necessary to increase crop yields; this requires, inter alia, more nitrogen and phosphorus fertiliser despite the environmental problems which this will exacerbate. It is probable that a satisfactory food supply and an environmentally benign agriculture worldwide cannot be achieved without reducing population to approximately three billion. The reduction could be achieved by 2200 if the total fertility rate--currently 2.5--declined to 1.5 as a world average by 2050, and remained at that level until 2200, but the probability of such a global fertility trajectory is close to zero. It will also be necessary to replace fossil energy by nuclear and renewable energy in order to stabilise atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, but the phase-out cannot be completed until the 22nd century, when the atmospheric concentration will be approximately 50% above the 2015 level of 400 ppm.

Global changes in diets and the consequences for land requirements for food.

Provision of food is a prerequisite for the functioning of human society. Cropland where food and feed are grown is the central, limiting resource for food production. The amount of cropland needed depends on population numbers, average food consumption patterns, and output per unit of land. Around the globe, these factors show large differences. We use data from the Food and Agriculture Organization to consistently assess subcontinental dynamics of how much land was needed to supply the prevailing diets during a span of 46 y, from 1961 to 2007. We find that, in most regions, diets became richer while the land needed to feed one person decreased. A decomposition approach is used to quantify the contributions of the main drivers of cropland requirements for food: changes in population, agricultural technology, and diet. We compare the impact of these drivers for different subcontinents and find that potential land savings through yield increases were offset by a combination of population growth and dietary change. The dynamics of the three factors were the largest in developing regions and emerging economies. The results indicate an inverse relationship between the two main drivers behind increased land requirements for food: with socioeconomic development, population growth decreases and, at the same time, diets become richer. In many regions, dietary change may override population growth as major driver behind land requirements for food in the near future.