Patterns of recovery in extant and extirpated seabirds after the world's largest multipredator eradication.

Eradicating invasive predators from islands can result in substantial recovery of seabirds, but the mechanisms that drive population changes remain poorly understood. Meta-analyses have recently revealed that immigration is surprisingly important to the recovery of philopatric seabirds, but it is not known whether dispersal and philopatry interact predictably to determine rates of population growth and changes of distribution. We used whole-island surveys and long-term monitoring plots to study the abundance, distribution, and trends of 4 burrowing seabird species on Macquarie Island, Australia, to examine the legacy impacts of invasive species and ongoing responses to the world's largest eradication of multiple species of vertebrates. Wekas (Gallirallus australis) were eradicated in 1988; cats (Felis catus) in 2001; and rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus), black rats (Rattus rattus), and mice (Mus mus) in 2011-2014. We compared surveys from 1976-1979 and 2017-2018 and monitoring from the 1990s and 2000s onward. Antarctic prions (Pachyptila desolata) and white-headed petrels (Pterodroma lessonii) increased ∼1% per year. Blue petrels (Halobaena caerulea) and gray petrels (Procellaria cinerea) recolonized following extirpation from the main island in the 1900s but remained spatially and numerically rare in 2018. However, they increased rapidly at 14% and 10% per year, respectively, since cat eradication in 2001. Blue and gray petrel recolonization occurred on steep, dry, west-facing slopes close to ridgelines at low elevation (i.e., high-quality petrel habitat). They overlapped <5% with the distribution of Antarctic prion and white-headed petrels which occurred in suboptimal shallow, wet, east-facing slopes at high elevation. We inferred that the speed of population growth of recolonizing species was related to their numerically smaller starting size compared with the established species and was driven by immigration and selection of ideal habitat.

Patrones de recuperación en aves marinas existentes y extirpadas después de la mayor erradicación mundial de multidepredadores Resumen La erradicación de depredadores invasores en las islas puede derivar en la recuperación sustancial de aves marinas, aunque entendemos muy poco los mecanismos que causan los cambios poblacionales. Los metaanálisis recientes han revelado que la inmigración es de gran importancia para la recuperación de aves marinas filopátricas, aunque no sabemos si la dispersión y la filopatría interactúan de forma predecible para poder determinar las tasas de crecimiento poblacional y los cambios en la distribución. Aplicamos censos de isla completa y parcelas de monitoreo a largo plazo para estudiar la abundancia, distribución y tendencias de cuatro especies de aves marinas cavadoras en la Isla Macquarie, Australia, para analizar los impactos heredados de las especies invasoras y la respuesta continua a la mayor erradicación mundial de varias especies de vertebrados. El rascón weka (Gallirallus australis) se erradicó en 1988; los gatos (Felis catus) en 2001; y los conejos (Oryctolagus cuniculus), ratas (Rattus rattus) y ratones (Mus mus) entre 2011 y 2014. Comparamos los censos de 1976­1979 y 2017­2018 y el monitoreo realizado en los 90s y del año 2000 en adelante. El pato petrel antártico (Pachyptila desolata) y el petrel cabeciblanco (Pterodroma lessonii) incrementaron ∼1% por año. El petrel azulado (Halobaena caerulea) y la pardela gris (Procellaria cinerea) recolonizaron la isla después de su extirpación en la década de 1900, pero todavía eran especies raras espacial y numéricamente en 2018. Sin embargo, esta especie incrementó rápidamente en un 14% y 10% por año respectivamente desde que se erradicaron los gatos en 2001. La recolonización ocurrió desde las laderas empinadas, secas y con orientación al oeste en los sistemas montañosos de baja elevación (es decir, hábitats de gran calidad para los petreles). La distribución del petrel azulado y la pardela gris ocurrió en laderas someras subóptimas y húmedas con orientación al este a altas elevaciones. Esta distribución se traslapó menos del 5% con la del pato petrel antártico y la del petrel cabeciblanco. Inferimos que la velocidad del crecimiento poblacional de las especies que recolonizaron estuvo relacionada con el menor tamaño inicial en comparación con las especies establecidas y fue causada por la inmigración y la selección del hábitat ideal.

The Astonishing Population Averted by China's Birth Restrictions: Estimates, Nightmares, and Reprogrammed Ambitions.

China launched an unprecedented program to control its population in 1971. Experts have dismissed the official estimate of 400 million births averted by this program as greatly exaggerated yet neglect to provide their own estimates. Counterfactual projections based on fertility declines in other countries suggest that China's program-averted population numbered 360-520 million as of 2015. The low end of this range is based on Vietnam-China's best national comparator, with a two-child program of its own-and the high end is based on a 16-country comparator selected, ironically, by critics of the official estimate. The latter comparator further implies that China's one-child program itself averted a population of 400 million by 2015, three-quarters of the total averted population. All such estimates are projected to double by 2060, due mostly to counterfactual population momentum. These and other findings presented herein affirm the astonishing impact of China's draconian policy choices and challenge the current consensus that rapid socioeconomic progress drove China's fertility well below two children per family. International comparisons of fertility and income suggest instead that China's very low fertility arrived two or three decades too soon. If China had not harshly enforced a norm of 1.5-children during the last quarter century, most mothers would have had two children, one-half birth higher than observed.

Barriers to adoption of family planning among women in Eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

The objectives of this survey were to identify women's level of KAP toward FP; identify possible barriers to using FP; determine pregnancy spacing pattern; and ascertain the level of FP promotion by health workers. This was a 2-weeks cross-sectional survey at all maternity units in Butembo of post-partum women. 572 women were interviewed. FP knowledge was high (76%), perception good (80%). Majority used traditional methods (65%), mostly Calendar method (72%). Barriers to using modern FP included lack of knowledge, fear of side effects, religious considerations and husband opposition. Unmet need for spacing and limiting was high (21 & 31%). For majority (56%), pregnancy spacing met WHO's Healthy Timing and Spacing of Pregnancy recommendations. Promotion of FP was poor (42%). Training of health workers, advocating modern contraception, improving FP services in all public health facilities and promoting FP on each contact of women is highly recommended in this city.

Falling fertility and increase in use of contraception in Zimbabwe.

Zimbabwe does not feature much on the current debate of fertility transition in sub-Saharan Africa. This article is trying to fill this gap by analysing the ZDHS data. The total fertility rate of Zimbabwe was close to 7 births during independence in 1980. However, it has declined to 3.8 in 2006. This does not only show that fertility in Zimbabwe has been declining over the years, but it is one of the lowest in the region. The fertility trend observed is mainly explained by use of contraception. The contraceptive prevalence rate was 60 percent in 2006. It is noted that the contraceptive uptake has continued to increase even during the years when Zimbabwe was going through serious political, economic, social and health challenges. This is because the groundwork done on the family planning programme soon after independence put a solid foundation in motivating women to use contraception.

Survey of euthanasia practices in animal shelters in Canada.

Questionnaires on methods of euthanasia used in Canadian animal shelters were sent to 196 Canadian animal shelters yielding 67 responses. Sodium pentobarbital injection was the only method of euthanasia used by 61% of establishments that euthanized dogs and 53% of the establishments that euthanized cats. Many of these establishments used pre-medication. Sodium pentobarbital was mostly administered intravenously but some establishments also used intracardiac and intraperitoneal routes, and some only used intracardiac administration for cats. T-61 injection was the only method of euthanasia used by 23% of the establishments that euthanized dogs and 35% of the establishments that euthanized cats. All of these establishments used pre-medication, but the percentages of establishments that only used the intravenous route for administration of T-61 in dogs and cats were 45% and 7%, respectively. Further studies on the use of T-61, and the training and provision of counselling services for staff are recommended.

Simulating the next steps in badger control for bovine tuberculosis in England.

Industry-led culling of badgers has occurred in England to reduce the incidence of bovine tuberculosis in cattle for a number of years. Badger vaccination is also possible, and a move away from culling was "highly desirable" in a recent report to the UK government. Here we used an established simulation model to examine badger control option in a post-cull environment in England. These options included no control, various intermittent culling, badger vaccination and use of a vaccine combined with fertility control. The initial simulated cull led to a dramatic reduction in the number of infected badgers present, which increased slowly if there was no further badger management. All three approaches led to a further reduction in the number of infected badgers, with little to choose between the strategies. We do note that of the management strategies only vaccination on its own leads to a recovery of the badger population, but also an increase in the number of badgers that need to be vaccinated. We conclude that vaccination post-cull, appears to be particularly effective, compared to vaccination when the host population is at carrying capacity.

Relative age effects in Elite Chinese soccer players: Implications of the 'one-child' policy.

The relative age effect (RAE) refers to the asymmetrical distribution of birthdates in a cohort found in many achievement domains, particularly in sports with many participants like soccer. Given the uniqueness of the one-child policy in China, this study examined the existence of the RAE in elite Chinese male and female soccer players generally and relative to their playing position on the field. Results showed a clear and obvious RAE for all age groups (U20 male, U18 male, adult female and U18 female) with the observed birthdate distributions for each age group significantly different from expected distributions (p<0.05). Additionally, we noticed a differential RAE according to the players' position on the field as reflected in different effect sizes. In male players, the RAE was significantly greater in Defenders (DF) and Goalkeepers (GK) compared to Midfielders (MF) and Forwards (FW) (VDF = 0.266>VGK = 0.215>VMF = 0.178>VFW = 0.175). In female players, GKs had a larger RAE (VGK = 0.184>0.17, VDF = 0.143, VMF = 0.127, VFW = 0.116). To reduce the negative consequences associated with RAEs throughout player development systems, potential solutions are discussed.

Residents' Management of, and Attitudes Towards, the Dog Population on Two Mariana Islands.

This study reports the level of care dogs received from their caretakers and the attitudes of caretakers and non-caretakers toward dogs on the islands of Guam and Saipan. Surveys were collected from residents of Guam and Saipan (274 and 275, respectively) and analyzed using chi-squared tests. Dogs were the most popular companion animal (Guam 66.4%; Saipan 72% ownership) with a strong preference toward pedigree, male puppies (Guam 45.4%; Saipan 62.4%). The more preferred dogs were housed inside and fed dog food, while the less preferred local mixed-breed dogs were free-roaming and fed table scraps. Fifty-nine per cent of caretakers in Saipan and 22.8% of caretakers in Guam had never provided veterinary care to their dog. Generally, caretakers on both islands did not sterilize their dogs, which may result in the potential for unplanned litters and a growth in the dog population. Residents of both islands reported witnessing abusive acts toward dogs, despite dogs being reported as having an important role on the island. This paper aims to identify challenges in dog welfare and management options for the stray population.

Demography and the epidemiology of disease in Papua New Guinea.

Papua New Guinea (PNG) remains a predominantly rural society. Declining mortality but only slow decline in fertility has led to an average annual growth rate of the order of 2.8%. If fertility continues to decline slowly, the population will reach 10 million soon after 2029; with an accelerated decline the population will be about 8.9 million persons in 2029. Wide differentials in mortality among provinces indicate considerable variation in mortality change. Infectious diseases which dominate the cause structure of mortality should be susceptible to health service intervention. Prerequisites are an appropriate mix of interventions, high levels of coverage, and high-quality monitoring and surveillance. It is critical that these unsolved disease problems be fully addressed as the combination of increasing urbanization, the AIDS (acquired immune deficiency syndrome) epidemic and an increasing prevalence of non-communicable diseases will place upward pressure on mortality rates. For the purposes of monitoring mortality change health services need access to methods for the calculation of mortality rates which have been validated in populations in PNG. Perhaps the most fundamental task of health services is to prevent unnecessary deaths. This article focuses on levels of mortality and the cause structure of mortality. It examines the relationship between health service interventions and mortality decline in PNG.

Analysis of prenatal diagnosis before and after implementation of the two-child policy in northeastern China.

The universal two-child policy has now been fully implemented in China. This change requires adaptations to maternal care and childcare systems, but the features of prenatal diagnosis before and after implementation of the policy have not been reported.We conducted a retrospective study of 6736 prenatal cytogenetic diagnoses performed on amniotic fluid cells over a 4-year period, including 2 years before and after implementation of the second child policy. Amniotic fluid cells collected through amniocentesis were cultured, harvested, and stained for chromosome analysis using standard laboratory protocols.The study included 3222 pregnant women referred before implementation of the policy, which we used as a control group, and 3514 pregnant women referred after policy implementation as an investigational study group. There were significantly fewer pregnant women aged <25 years in the investigational group than in the control group (P < .001). There were no significant between-group differences for other pregnant women aged >31 years and 27-28 years old (P > .05). A total of 358 cases with chromosomal abnormalities were diagnosed, including 129 (4%, 129/3222) in the control group which was significantly lower than the 229 (6.5%, 229/3514) in the study group (P < .001). In particular, significantly more trisomy 21 cases were observed in the study group than in the control group (120 vs 59). More pregnant women underwent non-invasive prenatal testing (NIPT) in the study group (46%) than in the control group (20%). In the study group, the average age of pregnant women who underwent NIPT was significantly higher than that of women who did not receive NIPT (P < .05). However, there were no significant between-group differences for the control group (P > .05).The number of cases with chromosomal abnormalities increased in northeastern China in the 2 years after implementation of the two-child policy. The number of pregnant women of advanced maternal age did not increase significantly, perhaps because of the widespread application of NIPT. However, the number of fetuses with Down syndrome increased significantly, suggesting that prenatal screening and diagnosis should be strengthened.

Changes of second-time mothers and their infants under the universal two-child policy in Changsha, China.

BACKGROUND: China announced the implementation of the universal two-child policy in Oct, 2015; every couple was allowed to have two children. However, its influences on maternal well-being and infants' outcomes are still to be discovered. OBJECTIVES: To detect influences of the universal two-child policy. To provide information for maternal health care under the new policy. STUDY DESIGN: This study enrolled 859 and 1230 women who delivered their second child (hereafter second-time mothers) before and after the policy's implementation, respectively, and the data included maternal demographic characteristics, gestational complications, delivery mode and infants' outcomes. RESULTS: After the policy's implementation, the proportion of second-time mothers with advanced age increased significantly. The advanced gestational age is well acknowledged to correlate with higher risk during the pregnancy, both for pregnant women and their babies. However, in our study, the incidence of hypertensive disorders in pregnancy, placenta previa and postpartum haemorrhage decreased significantly after the introduction of the policy and no differences were noted in other gestational complications. Moreover, the hospitalization time was shortened, and caesarean delivery was chosen less frequently. As for the infants, foetal distress exhibited an alleviation and the incidence of premature labour and low birth weight decreased as well. CONCLUSIONS: Even though the age of second-time mothers increased after the introduction of the universal two-child policy, their general gestational health condition improved and their infants also exhibited a better outcome, which might be attributed to the improvement of China's maternal medical care system.

Pest demography critically determines the viability of synthetic gene drives for population control.

Synthetic gene drives offer a novel solution for the control of invasive alien species. CRISPR-based gene drives can positively bias their own inheritance, and comprise a DNA sequence that is replicated by homologous recombination. Since gene drives can be positioned to silence fertility or developmental genes, they could be used for population suppression. However, the production of resistant alleles following self-replication errors threatens the technology's viability for pest eradication in real-world applications. Further, a robust assessment of how pest demography impacts the expected progression of gene drives through populations is currently lacking. We used a deterministic, two-sex, birth-death model to investigate how demographic assumptions affect the efficiency of suppression drives for controlling invasive rodents on islands, for two different gene-drive strategies. We show that mass-action reproduction results in overly optimistic eradication outcomes when compared to the more realistic assumption of polygynous breeding. When polygyny was assumed, both gene-strategies failed due to the evolution of resistance unless a reproductive Allee effect (reduced reproductive rates at low population density) was also included; although model outcomes were highly sensitive to the strength of this effect. Increasing the size of the initial gene-drive introduction (up to 10% of carrying capacity) had little impact on population outcomes. Understanding the demography of a population targeted for eradication is critical before the viability of gene-drive suppression can be adequately assessed.

Epidemiological investigation of euthanasia in an Ontario animal shelter.

Objectives The objective was to evaluate factors associated with euthanasia in an animal shelter in Kitchener-Waterloo, Ontario, Canada. Methods Data from 3737 cats admitted to the shelter between January and December 2011 were evaluated. Results Overall, 1989/3737 (53%) of admitted cats were euthanized. Male cats had greater odds of being euthanized than females (odds ratio [OR] 1.63, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.29-2.05; P <0.001) and surrendered cats were more likely to be euthanized than strays (OR 38.0, 95% CI 14.8-97.69; P <0.001). Black cats were more likely to be euthanized than cats of another color (OR 1.45, 95% CI 1.16-1.80; P <0.001). Cats that spent >5 days in the shelter were more likely to be euthanized than those that spent <5 days in the shelter (OR 1.57, 95% CI 1.25-1.97; P <0.001). Cats that spent >20 days in the shelter were less likely to be euthanized than those that spent <5 days in the shelter (OR 0.26, 95% CI 0.19-0.34; P <0.001). Age, an age quadratic term, neuter status and interactions among these variables were statistically significant; the odds of unneutered animals being euthanized was high and relatively stable across age groups, but in neutered animals the odds of being euthanized increased with age before plateauing in older cats. Conclusions and relevance With >50% of the cats admitted to the shelter in 2011 euthanized, it is important to understand the contributing risk factors that predispose shelter cats to euthanasia and what changes can be made to the shelter system and in owner education to lower the incidence of euthanasia.

Impact of euthanasia rates, euthanasia practices, and human resource practices on employee turnover in animal shelters.

OBJECTIVE: To examine the effects of euthanasia rates, euthanasia practices, and human resource practices on the turnover rate among employees with euthanasia responsibilities at animal shelters. DESIGN: Cross-sectional original study. SAMPLE POPULATION: 36 shelters across the United States that employed at least 5 full-time employees and performed euthanasia on site. PROCEDURES: By mail, 1 survey was sent to each shelter. Surveys were completed by a senior member of management and were returned by mail. Questions assessed characteristics (eg, euthanasia rates) and practices of the animal shelter, along with employee turnover rates. By use of correlation coefficients and stepwise regression analyses, key predictors of turnover rates among employees with euthanasia responsibilities were investigated. RESULTS: Employee turnover rates were positively related to euthanasia rate. Practices that were associated with decreased turnover rates included provision of a designated euthanasia room, exclusion of other live animals from vicinity during euthanasia, and removal of euthanized animals from a room prior to entry of another animal to be euthanized. Making decisions regarding euthanasia of animals on the basis of factors other than behavior and health reasons was related to increased personnel turnover. With regard to human resources practices, shelters that used a systematic personnel selection procedure (eg, standardized testing) had comparatively lower employee turnover. CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Data obtained may suggest several specific avenues that can be pursued to mitigate turnover among employees with euthanasia responsibilities at animal shelters and animal control or veterinary medical organizations.

[Dispersal of the flea Ctenophyllus hirticrus and spreading of plague epizooties in Gorny Altai].

Gradual dispersion of an abundant flea species Ctenophyllus hirticrus specific to the Pallas's pika (the main plague carrier), is revealed in the Gorno-Altai natural plague focus on the territory, occupied by two populations of this lagomorph. Spreading of Yersinia pestis in these areas took place a short time later the rise of this ectoparasite's abundance. It is supposed that the colonization of these areas by C. hirticrus was one of the factors determined epizooties spreading within the focus and formation of new sites of stable Y. pestis preservation.

Percepção da sociedade em relação ao controle populacional de vertebrados em condições de sinantropia no município de Niterói, RJ / Perception of society about the management of synanthropic vertebrates populations in the municipality of Niterói, RJ / Percepción de la sociedad sobre el control poblacional de los vertebrados en condiciones sinópticas en el municipio de Niterói, RJ

Esse estudo seccional, realizado no período 2014-2015, com aplicação de questionários, teve por objetivo conhecer a percepção sobre vertebrados em condição de sinantropia e a opinião sobre controle populacional para a população do município de Niterói, RJ. Dentre os 474 entrevistados, 76,8% aceitavam o controle populacional para ratos, 63,3% para pombos, 40,5% para cães, 33,8% para gatos, 25,5% para morcegos, 16,5% para serpentes e 14,1% para gambás. As serpentes foram os animais mais associados ao medo (59,1%) e risco de agressão (47,7%), pombos (89,2%) e morcegos ao risco de doenças (57,4%), ratos à nojo/repulsa (56,6%), gambás à natureza (73,8%), cães à companhia (79,8%), e gatos à amizade (57,4%). O estudo demonstrou que as relações dos humanos com os animais podem ser complexas, ambíguas e paradoxais, e fornece dados que poderão ser utilizados para políticas públicas de manejo dessas espécies.(AU)

This study (sectional investigation), in the 2014-2015, using questionnaires, aimed to understand the perception of vertebrates in synanthropic conditions and the opinion about their population control for the population of the municipality the Niterói, RJ. Among the 474 people interviewed, 76.8% accepted population control for rats, 63.3% for pigeons, 40.5% for dogs, 33.8% for cats, 25.5 % for bats, 16.5% for snakes and 14.1% for possums. Snakes were the animals most associated with the representation of fear (59.1%) and risk of aggression (47.7%), pigeons (89.2%) and bats with risk of disease (57.4%), rats with disgust and repulsion (56.6%), possums with nature (73.8%), dogs with company (79.8%), and cats with friendship (57.4%). In addition to demonstrating how complex human relations with animals can be ambiguous and paradoxical, this study provides data that can be used for public policies for the management of these species.(AU)

El objetivo de este estudio fue conocer la percepción de los vertebrados en condiciones de sinantropía y la opinión sobre el control poblacional de la población del municipio de Niterói, RJ. Entre los 474 entrevistados, el 76,8% aceptó el control de la población de ratas, el 63,3% de palomas, el 40,5% de perros, el 33,8% de gatos, el 25,5% de murciélagos, el 16,5% de serpientes y el 14,1% de zarigüeyas. Las serpientes fueron los animales más asociados al miedo (59,1%) y al riesgo de agresión (47,7%), las palomas (89,2%) y los murciélagos al riesgo de enfermedad (57,4%), las ratas al asco/repulsión (56,6%), las zarigüeyas a la naturaleza (73,8%), los perros a la compañía (79,8%) y los gatos a la amistad (57,4%). El estudio demostró que las relaciones de los humanos con los animales pueden ser complejas, ambiguas y paradójicas, y aporta datos que podrían utilizarse para las políticas públicas de gestión de estas especies.(AU)

Population control methods in stochastic extinction and outbreak scenarios.

Adaptive limiter control (ALC) and adaptive threshold harvesting (ATH) are two related control methods that have been shown to stabilize fluctuating populations. Large variations in population abundance can threaten the constancy and the persistence stability of ecological populations, which may impede the success and efficiency of managing natural resources. Here, we consider population models that include biological mechanisms characteristic for causing extinctions on the one hand and pest outbreaks on the other hand. These models include Allee effects and the impact of natural enemies (as is typical of forest defoliating insects). We study the impacts of noise and different levels of biological parameters in three extinction and two outbreak scenarios. Our results show that ALC and ATH have an effect on extinction and outbreak risks only for sufficiently large control intensities. Moreover, there is a clear disparity between the two control methods: in the extinction scenarios, ALC can be effective and ATH can be counterproductive, whereas in the outbreak scenarios the situation is reversed, with ATH being effective and ALC being potentially counterproductive.

Use of the 10-Group Classification System to analyze how the population control policy change in China has affected cesarean delivery.

OBJECTIVE: To analyze the initial effect following the relaxation of China's population control policy on the cesarean delivery (CD) rate using the 10-Group Classification System (TGCS). METHODS: A retrospective study included all deliveries at a center in Nanjing, China, during 2014-2015. The deliveries were classified using the TGCS. The obstetric populations and the CD rates in each group were compared between 2014 and 2015. RESULTS: Overall, 11 006 deliveries were analyzed. The overall CD rate increased from 28.3% (1623/5737) in 2014 to 33.8% (1782/5269) in 2015 (P<0.001). The largest contributor to the overall CD rate-accounting for approximately one-third of all CDs-were nulliparous women with a single cephalic term pregnancy and induced labor or prelabor CD (group 2); the CD rate in this group increased from 27.2% to 31.4%. Moreover, the proportion of women with a single cephalic term pregnancy with previous CD (group 5) steeply increased from 6.4% to 10.4% of all deliveries; the CD rate in this group during 2014-2015 was 76.6%. CONCLUSION: With China ending its one-child policy, the characteristics of the obstetric population changed. Women with a single cephalic term pregnancy with previous CD were the largest contributor to the CD rate increase.