RESUMEN
Emerging infectious diseases will continue to threaten public health and are sustained by global commerce, travel and disruption of ecological systems. Most pandemic threats are caused by viruses from either zoonotic sources or vector-borne sources. Developing better ways to anticipate and manage the ongoing microbial challenge will be critical for achieving the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals and, conversely, each such goal will affect the ability to control infectious diseases. Here we discuss how technology can be applied effectively to better prepare for and respond to new viral diseases with a focus on new paradigms for vaccine development.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/inmunología , Vacunación/métodos , Vacunas Virales/inmunología , Virosis/inmunología , Animales , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/prevención & control , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/virología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Salud Pública/métodos , Vacunas Virales/uso terapéutico , Virosis/epidemiología , Virosis/prevención & controlRESUMEN
Hospital-based transmission had a dominant role in Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) and severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus (SARS-CoV) epidemics1,2, but large-scale studies of its role in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic are lacking. Such transmission risks spreading the virus to the most vulnerable individuals and can have wider-scale impacts through hospital-community interactions. Using data from acute hospitals in England, we quantify within-hospital transmission, evaluate likely pathways of spread and factors associated with heightened transmission risk, and explore the wider dynamical consequences. We estimate that between June 2020 and March 2021 between 95,000 and 167,000 inpatients acquired SARS-CoV-2 in hospitals (1% to 2% of all hospital admissions in this period). Analysis of time series data provided evidence that patients who themselves acquired SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospital were the main sources of transmission to other patients. Increased transmission to inpatients was associated with hospitals having fewer single rooms and lower heated volume per bed. Moreover, we show that reducing hospital transmission could substantially enhance the efficiency of punctuated lockdown measures in suppressing community transmission. These findings reveal the previously unrecognized scale of hospital transmission, have direct implications for targeting of hospital control measures and highlight the need to design hospitals better equipped to limit the transmission of future high-consequence pathogens.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19 , Infección Hospitalaria , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa , Pacientes Internos , Pandemias , Humanos , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles , COVID-19/epidemiología , COVID-19/transmisión , Infección Hospitalaria/epidemiología , Infección Hospitalaria/prevención & control , Infección Hospitalaria/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Inglaterra/epidemiología , Hospitales , Pandemias/prevención & control , Pandemias/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Before the emergence of the B.1.617.2 (delta) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), vaccination reduced transmission of SARS-CoV-2 from vaccinated persons who became infected, potentially by reducing viral loads. Although vaccination still lowers the risk of infection, similar viral loads in vaccinated and unvaccinated persons who are infected with the delta variant call into question the degree to which vaccination prevents transmission. METHODS: We used contact-testing data from England to perform a retrospective observational cohort study involving adult contacts of SARS-CoV-2-infected adult index patients. We used multivariable Poisson regression to investigate associations between transmission and the vaccination status of index patients and contacts and to determine how these associations varied with the B.1.1.7 (alpha) and delta variants and time since the second vaccination. RESULTS: Among 146,243 tested contacts of 108,498 index patients, 54,667 (37%) had positive SARS-CoV-2 polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR) tests. In index patients who became infected with the alpha variant, two vaccinations with either BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (also known as AZD1222), as compared with no vaccination, were independently associated with reduced PCR positivity in contacts (adjusted rate ratio with BNT162b2, 0.32; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.21 to 0.48; and with ChAdOx1 nCoV-19, 0.48; 95% CI, 0.30 to 0.78). Vaccine-associated reductions in transmission of the delta variant were smaller than those with the alpha variant, and reductions in transmission of the delta variant after two BNT162b2 vaccinations were greater (adjusted rate ratio for the comparison with no vaccination, 0.50; 95% CI, 0.39 to 0.65) than after two ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccinations (adjusted rate ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.82). Variation in cycle-threshold (Ct) values (indicative of viral load) in index patients explained 7 to 23% of vaccine-associated reductions in transmission of the two variants. The reductions in transmission of the delta variant declined over time after the second vaccination, reaching levels that were similar to those in unvaccinated persons by 12 weeks in index patients who had received ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and attenuating substantially in those who had received BNT162b2. Protection in contacts also declined in the 3-month period after the second vaccination. CONCLUSIONS: Vaccination was associated with a smaller reduction in transmission of the delta variant than of the alpha variant, and the effects of vaccination decreased over time. PCR Ct values at diagnosis of the index patient only partially explained decreased transmission. (Funded by the U.K. Government Department of Health and Social Care and others.).
Asunto(s)
Vacuna BNT162 , COVID-19/transmisión , ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19/diagnóstico , COVID-19/virología , Prueba de Ácido Nucleico para COVID-19 , Inglaterra , Femenino , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Estudios Retrospectivos , Carga ViralRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Current strategies for preventing severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection are limited to nonpharmacologic interventions. Hydroxychloroquine has been proposed as a postexposure therapy to prevent coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19), but definitive evidence is lacking. METHODS: We conducted an open-label, cluster-randomized trial involving asymptomatic contacts of patients with polymerase-chain-reaction (PCR)-confirmed Covid-19 in Catalonia, Spain. We randomly assigned clusters of contacts to the hydroxychloroquine group (which received the drug at a dose of 800 mg once, followed by 400 mg daily for 6 days) or to the usual-care group (which received no specific therapy). The primary outcome was PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 within 14 days. The secondary outcome was SARS-CoV-2 infection, defined by symptoms compatible with Covid-19 or a positive PCR test regardless of symptoms. Adverse events were assessed for up to 28 days. RESULTS: The analysis included 2314 healthy contacts of 672 index case patients with Covid-19 who were identified between March 17 and April 28, 2020. A total of 1116 contacts were randomly assigned to receive hydroxychloroquine and 1198 to receive usual care. Results were similar in the hydroxychloroquine and usual-care groups with respect to the incidence of PCR-confirmed, symptomatic Covid-19 (5.7% and 6.2%, respectively; risk ratio, 0.86 [95% confidence interval, 0.52 to 1.42]). In addition, hydroxychloroquine was not associated with a lower incidence of SARS-CoV-2 transmission than usual care (18.7% and 17.8%, respectively). The incidence of adverse events was higher in the hydroxychloroquine group than in the usual-care group (56.1% vs. 5.9%), but no treatment-related serious adverse events were reported. CONCLUSIONS: Postexposure therapy with hydroxychloroquine did not prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection or symptomatic Covid-19 in healthy persons exposed to a PCR-positive case patient. (Funded by the crowdfunding campaign YoMeCorono and others; BCN-PEP-CoV2 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT04304053.).
Asunto(s)
Antiinfecciosos/uso terapéutico , COVID-19/prevención & control , Hidroxicloroquina/uso terapéutico , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto , Antiinfecciosos/efectos adversos , COVID-19/transmisión , COVID-19/virología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Método Doble Ciego , Femenino , Humanos , Hidroxicloroquina/efectos adversos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Cooperación del Paciente , Insuficiencia del Tratamiento , Carga ViralRESUMEN
We previously reported1 the presence of amyloid-ß protein (Aß) deposits in individuals with Creutzfeldt-Jakob disease (CJD) who had been treated during childhood with human cadaveric pituitary-derived growth hormone (c-hGH) contaminated with prions. The marked deposition of parenchymal and vascular Aß in these relatively young individuals with treatment-induced (iatrogenic) CJD (iCJD), in contrast to other prion-disease patients and population controls, allied with the ability of Alzheimer's disease brain homogenates to seed Aß deposition in laboratory animals, led us to argue that the implicated c-hGH batches might have been contaminated with Aß seeds as well as with prions. However, this was necessarily an association, and not an experimental, study in humans and causality could not be concluded. Given the public health importance of our hypothesis, we proceeded to identify and biochemically analyse archived vials of c-hGH. Here we show that certain c-hGH batches to which patients with iCJD and Aß pathology were exposed have substantial levels of Aß40, Aß42 and tau proteins, and that this material can seed the formation of Aß plaques and cerebral Aß-amyloid angiopathy in intracerebrally inoculated mice expressing a mutant, humanized amyloid precursor protein. These results confirm the presence of Aß seeds in archived c-hGH vials and are consistent with the hypothesized iatrogenic human transmission of Aß pathology. This experimental confirmation has implications for both the prevention and the treatment of Alzheimer's disease, and should prompt a review of the risk of iatrogenic transmission of Aß seeds by medical and surgical procedures long recognized to pose a risk of accidental prion transmission2,3.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedad de Alzheimer/inducido químicamente , Péptidos beta-Amiloides/metabolismo , Cadáver , Síndrome de Creutzfeldt-Jakob/inducido químicamente , Contaminación de Medicamentos , Hormona del Crecimiento/farmacología , Enfermedad Iatrogénica , Enfermedad de Alzheimer/etiología , Péptidos beta-Amiloides/análisis , Precursor de Proteína beta-Amiloide/administración & dosificación , Precursor de Proteína beta-Amiloide/efectos adversos , Animales , Estudios de Casos y Controles , Síndrome de Creutzfeldt-Jakob/etiología , Modelos Animales de Enfermedad , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Contaminación de Medicamentos/prevención & control , Contaminación de Medicamentos/estadística & datos numéricos , Femenino , Hormona del Crecimiento/administración & dosificación , Humanos , Masculino , Ratones , Modelos Biológicos , Priones/metabolismo , Proteínas Recombinantes/administración & dosificación , Proteínas Recombinantes/farmacología , Reproducibilidad de los Resultados , Proteínas tau/análisis , Proteínas tau/metabolismoRESUMEN
We estimate the effects of shelter-in-place (SIP) orders during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. We do not find detectable effects of these policies on disease spread or deaths. We find small but measurable effects on mobility that dissipate over time. And we find small, delayed effects on unemployment. We conduct additional analyses that separately assess the effects of expanding versus withdrawing SIP orders and test whether there are spillover effects in other states. Our results are consistent with prior studies showing that SIP orders have accounted for a relatively small share of the mobility trends and economic disruptions associated with the pandemic. We reanalyze two prior studies purporting to show that SIP orders caused large reductions in disease prevalence, and show that those results are not reliable. Our results do not imply that social distancing behavior by individuals, as distinct from SIP policy, is ineffective.
Asunto(s)
COVID-19/epidemiología , Refugio de Emergencia , COVID-19/prevención & control , COVID-19/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Refugio de Emergencia/economía , Refugio de Emergencia/tendencias , Humanos , Pandemias , Distanciamiento Físico , Políticas , Prevalencia , SARS-CoV-2/aislamiento & purificación , Factores de Tiempo , Desempleo/estadística & datos numéricosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Baloxavir marboxil (baloxavir) is a polymerase acidic protein (PA) endonuclease inhibitor with clinical efficacy in the treatment of uncomplicated influenza, including in outpatients at increased risk for complications. The postexposure prophylactic efficacy of baloxavir in the household setting is unclear. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled trial to evaluate the postexposure prophylactic efficacy of baloxavir in household contacts of index patients with confirmed influenza during the 2018-2019 season in Japan. The participants were assigned in a 1:1 ratio to receive either a single dose of baloxavir or placebo. The primary end point was clinical influenza, as confirmed by reverse-transcriptase-polymerase-chain-reaction testing, over a period of 10 days. The occurrence of baloxavir-selected PA substitutions associated with reduced susceptibility was assessed. RESULTS: A total of 752 household contacts of 545 index patients were randomly assigned to receive baloxavir or placebo. Among the index patients, 95.6% had influenza A virus infection, 73.6% were younger than 12 years of age, and 52.7% received baloxavir. Among the participants who could be evaluated (374 in the baloxavir group and 375 in the placebo group), the percentage in whom clinical influenza developed was significantly lower in the baloxavir group than in the placebo group (1.9% vs. 13.6%) (adjusted risk ratio, 0.14; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.06 to 0.30; P<0.001). Baloxavir was effective in high-risk, pediatric, and unvaccinated subgroups of participants. The risk of influenza infection, regardless of symptoms, was lower with baloxavir than with placebo (adjusted risk ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.32 to 0.58). The incidence of adverse events was similar in the two groups (22.2% in the baloxavir group and 20.5% in the placebo group). In the baloxavir group, the viral PA substitutions I38T/M or E23K were detected in 10 (2.7%) and 5 (1.3%) participants, respectively. No transmission of these variants from baloxavir-treated index patients to participants in the placebo group was detected; however, several instances of transmission to participants in the baloxavir group could not be ruled out. CONCLUSIONS: Single-dose baloxavir showed significant postexposure prophylactic efficacy in preventing influenza in household contacts of patients with influenza. (Funded by Shionogi; Japan Primary Registries Network number, JapicCTI-184180.).
Asunto(s)
Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Virus de la Influenza A , Gripe Humana/prevención & control , Oxazinas/uso terapéutico , Piridinas/uso terapéutico , Tiepinas/uso terapéutico , Triazinas/uso terapéutico , Administración Oral , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Antivirales/administración & dosificación , Antivirales/efectos adversos , Niño , Preescolar , Dibenzotiepinas , Método Doble Ciego , Endonucleasas/antagonistas & inhibidores , Familia , Femenino , Humanos , Virus de la Influenza A/genética , Virus de la Influenza A/aislamiento & purificación , Gripe Humana/transmisión , Gripe Humana/virología , Análisis de Intención de Tratar , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Morfolinas , Oxazinas/administración & dosificación , Oxazinas/efectos adversos , Piridinas/administración & dosificación , Piridinas/efectos adversos , Piridonas , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa de Transcriptasa Inversa , Tiepinas/administración & dosificación , Tiepinas/efectos adversos , Triazinas/administración & dosificación , Triazinas/efectos adversosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection can spread rapidly within skilled nursing facilities. After identification of a case of Covid-19 in a skilled nursing facility, we assessed transmission and evaluated the adequacy of symptom-based screening to identify infections in residents. METHODS: We conducted two serial point-prevalence surveys, 1 week apart, in which assenting residents of the facility underwent nasopharyngeal and oropharyngeal testing for SARS-CoV-2, including real-time reverse-transcriptase polymerase chain reaction (rRT-PCR), viral culture, and sequencing. Symptoms that had been present during the preceding 14 days were recorded. Asymptomatic residents who tested positive were reassessed 7 days later. Residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection were categorized as symptomatic with typical symptoms (fever, cough, or shortness of breath), symptomatic with only atypical symptoms, presymptomatic, or asymptomatic. RESULTS: Twenty-three days after the first positive test result in a resident at this skilled nursing facility, 57 of 89 residents (64%) tested positive for SARS-CoV-2. Among 76 residents who participated in point-prevalence surveys, 48 (63%) tested positive. Of these 48 residents, 27 (56%) were asymptomatic at the time of testing; 24 subsequently developed symptoms (median time to onset, 4 days). Samples from these 24 presymptomatic residents had a median rRT-PCR cycle threshold value of 23.1, and viable virus was recovered from 17 residents. As of April 3, of the 57 residents with SARS-CoV-2 infection, 11 had been hospitalized (3 in the intensive care unit) and 15 had died (mortality, 26%). Of the 34 residents whose specimens were sequenced, 27 (79%) had sequences that fit into two clusters with a difference of one nucleotide. CONCLUSIONS: Rapid and widespread transmission of SARS-CoV-2 was demonstrated in this skilled nursing facility. More than half of residents with positive test results were asymptomatic at the time of testing and most likely contributed to transmission. Infection-control strategies focused solely on symptomatic residents were not sufficient to prevent transmission after SARS-CoV-2 introduction into this facility.
Asunto(s)
Enfermedades Asintomáticas , Betacoronavirus/aislamiento & purificación , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Instituciones de Cuidados Especializados de Enfermería , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , Betacoronavirus/genética , COVID-19 , Comorbilidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus/complicaciones , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Tos/etiología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Disnea/etiología , Femenino , Fiebre/etiología , Genoma Viral , Humanos , Control de Infecciones/métodos , Masculino , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/complicaciones , Neumonía Viral/diagnóstico , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Prevalencia , Reacción en Cadena en Tiempo Real de la Polimerasa , SARS-CoV-2 , Carga Viral , Washingtón/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Long-term care facilities are high-risk settings for severe outcomes from outbreaks of Covid-19, owing to both the advanced age and frequent chronic underlying health conditions of the residents and the movement of health care personnel among facilities in a region. METHODS: After identification on February 28, 2020, of a confirmed case of Covid-19 in a skilled nursing facility in King County, Washington, Public Health-Seattle and King County, aided by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, launched a case investigation, contact tracing, quarantine of exposed persons, isolation of confirmed and suspected cases, and on-site enhancement of infection prevention and control. RESULTS: As of March 18, a total of 167 confirmed cases of Covid-19 affecting 101 residents, 50 health care personnel, and 16 visitors were found to be epidemiologically linked to the facility. Most cases among residents included respiratory illness consistent with Covid-19; however, in 7 residents no symptoms were documented. Hospitalization rates for facility residents, visitors, and staff were 54.5%, 50.0%, and 6.0%, respectively. The case fatality rate for residents was 33.7% (34 of 101). As of March 18, a total of 30 long-term care facilities with at least one confirmed case of Covid-19 had been identified in King County. CONCLUSIONS: In the context of rapidly escalating Covid-19 outbreaks, proactive steps by long-term care facilities to identify and exclude potentially infected staff and visitors, actively monitor for potentially infected patients, and implement appropriate infection prevention and control measures are needed to prevent the introduction of Covid-19.
Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa , Control de Infecciones/métodos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Instituciones de Cuidados Especializados de Enfermería , Adulto , Anciano , Anciano de 80 o más Años , COVID-19 , Prueba de COVID-19 , Técnicas de Laboratorio Clínico , Trazado de Contacto , Infecciones por Coronavirus/diagnóstico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/mortalidad , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Brotes de Enfermedades , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Femenino , Personal de Salud , Humanos , Cuidados a Largo Plazo , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Neumonía Viral/mortalidad , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , SARS-CoV-2 , Washingtón/epidemiologíaRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: The initial cases of novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV)-infected pneumonia (NCIP) occurred in Wuhan, Hubei Province, China, in December 2019 and January 2020. We analyzed data on the first 425 confirmed cases in Wuhan to determine the epidemiologic characteristics of NCIP. METHODS: We collected information on demographic characteristics, exposure history, and illness timelines of laboratory-confirmed cases of NCIP that had been reported by January 22, 2020. We described characteristics of the cases and estimated the key epidemiologic time-delay distributions. In the early period of exponential growth, we estimated the epidemic doubling time and the basic reproductive number. RESULTS: Among the first 425 patients with confirmed NCIP, the median age was 59 years and 56% were male. The majority of cases (55%) with onset before January 1, 2020, were linked to the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market, as compared with 8.6% of the subsequent cases. The mean incubation period was 5.2 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 4.1 to 7.0), with the 95th percentile of the distribution at 12.5 days. In its early stages, the epidemic doubled in size every 7.4 days. With a mean serial interval of 7.5 days (95% CI, 5.3 to 19), the basic reproductive number was estimated to be 2.2 (95% CI, 1.4 to 3.9). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of this information, there is evidence that human-to-human transmission has occurred among close contacts since the middle of December 2019. Considerable efforts to reduce transmission will be required to control outbreaks if similar dynamics apply elsewhere. Measures to prevent or reduce transmission should be implemented in populations at risk. (Funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China and others.).
Asunto(s)
Betacoronavirus , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Epidemias , Periodo de Incubación de Enfermedades Infecciosas , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Adolescente , Adulto , Anciano , Betacoronavirus/genética , COVID-19 , China/epidemiología , Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Epidemias/prevención & control , Femenino , Humanos , Incidencia , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/virología , Reacción en Cadena de la Polimerasa , SARS-CoV-2 , Adulto JovenRESUMEN
The West African Ebola virus (EBOV) epidemic has fast-tracked countermeasures for this rare, emerging zoonotic pathogen. Until 2013-2014, most EBOV vaccine candidates were stalled between the preclinical and clinical milestones on the path to licensure, because of funding problems, lack of interest from pharmaceutical companies, and competing priorities in public health. The unprecedented and devastating epidemic propelled vaccine candidates toward clinical trials that were initiated near the end of the active response to the outbreak. Those trials did not have a major impact on the epidemic but provided invaluable data on vaccine safety, immunogenicity, and, to a limited degree, even efficacy in humans. There are plenty of lessons to learn from these trials, some of which are addressed in this review. Better preparation is essential to executing an effective response to EBOV in the future; yet, the first indications of waning interest are already noticeable.
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Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Aprobación de Drogas/métodos , Desarrollo de Medicamentos/métodos , Vacunas contra el Virus del Ébola/inmunología , Vacunas contra el Virus del Ébola/aislamiento & purificación , Ebolavirus/inmunología , Fiebre Hemorrágica Ebola/prevención & control , Ensayos Clínicos como Asunto , Evaluación Preclínica de Medicamentos , Vacunas contra el Virus del Ébola/efectos adversos , HumanosRESUMEN
Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rapidly spread around the globe after its emergence in Wuhan in December 2019. With no specific therapeutic and prophylactic options available, the virus has infected millions of people of which more than half a million succumbed to the viral disease, COVID-19. The urgent need for an effective treatment together with a lack of small animal infection models has led to clinical trials using repurposed drugs without preclinical evidence of their in vivo efficacy. We established an infection model in Syrian hamsters to evaluate the efficacy of small molecules on both infection and transmission. Treatment of SARS-CoV-2-infected hamsters with a low dose of favipiravir or hydroxychloroquine with(out) azithromycin resulted in, respectively, a mild or no reduction in virus levels. However, high doses of favipiravir significantly reduced infectious virus titers in the lungs and markedly improved lung histopathology. Moreover, a high dose of favipiravir decreased virus transmission by direct contact, whereas hydroxychloroquine failed as prophylaxis. Pharmacokinetic modeling of hydroxychloroquine suggested that the total lung exposure to the drug did not cause the failure. Our data on hydroxychloroquine (together with previous reports in macaques and ferrets) thus provide no scientific basis for the use of this drug in COVID-19 patients. In contrast, the results with favipiravir demonstrate that an antiviral drug at nontoxic doses exhibits a marked protective effect against SARS-CoV-2 in a small animal model. Clinical studies are required to assess whether a similar antiviral effect is achievable in humans without toxic effects.
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Amidas/uso terapéutico , Antivirales/uso terapéutico , Betacoronavirus/efectos de los fármacos , Hidroxicloroquina/uso terapéutico , Pirazinas/uso terapéutico , Amidas/farmacocinética , Animales , Chlorocebus aethiops , Infecciones por Coronavirus/tratamiento farmacológico , Infecciones por Coronavirus/virología , Cricetinae , Modelos Animales de Enfermedad , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Relación Dosis-Respuesta a Droga , Evaluación Preclínica de Medicamentos , Femenino , Hidroxicloroquina/farmacocinética , Pulmón/efectos de los fármacos , Pulmón/patología , Pulmón/virología , Pirazinas/farmacocinética , SARS-CoV-2 , Resultado del Tratamiento , Células Vero , Carga Viral/efectos de los fármacos , Tratamiento Farmacológico de COVID-19RESUMEN
Emerging evidence suggests a resurgence of COVID-19 in the coming years. It is thus critical to optimize emergency response planning from a broad, integrated perspective. We developed a mathematical model incorporating climate-driven variation in community transmissions and movement-modulated spatial diffusions of COVID-19 into various intervention scenarios. We find that an intensive 8-wk intervention targeting the reduction of local transmissibility and international travel is efficient and effective. Practically, we suggest a tiered implementation of this strategy where interventions are first implemented at locations in what we call the Global Intervention Hub, followed by timely interventions in secondary high-risk locations. We argue that thinking globally, categorizing locations in a hub-and-spoke intervention network, and acting locally, applying interventions at high-risk areas, is a functional strategy to avert the tremendous burden that would otherwise be placed on public health and society.
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Control de Enfermedades Transmisibles/métodos , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/prevención & control , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Salud Global/tendencias , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Clima , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/epidemiología , Enfermedades Transmisibles Emergentes/transmisión , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Predicción , Humanos , Cooperación Internacional , Modelos Teóricos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , SARS-CoV-2 , ViajeRESUMEN
It is imperative to advance our understanding of heterogeneities in the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 such as age-specific infectiousness and superspreading. To this end, it is important to exploit multiple data streams that are becoming abundantly available during the pandemic. In this paper, we formulate an individual-level spatiotemporal mechanistic framework to integrate individual surveillance data with geolocation data and aggregate mobility data, enabling a more granular understanding of the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. We analyze reported cases, between March and early May 2020, in five (urban and rural) counties in the state of Georgia. First, our results show that the reproductive number reduced to below one in about 2 wk after the shelter-in-place order. Superspreading appears to be widespread across space and time, and it may have a particularly important role in driving the outbreak in rural areas and an increasing importance toward later stages of outbreaks in both urban and rural settings. Overall, about 2% of cases were directly responsible for 20% of all infections. We estimate that the infected nonelderly cases (<60 y) may be 2.78 [2.10, 4.22] times more infectious than the elderly, and the former tend to be the main driver of superspreading. Our results improve our understanding of the natural history and transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2. More importantly, we reveal the roles of age-specific infectiousness and characterize systematic variations and associated risk factors of superspreading. These have important implications for the planning of relaxing social distancing and, more generally, designing optimal control measures.
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Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Número Básico de Reproducción , Betacoronavirus , COVID-19 , Trazado de Contacto , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Georgia/epidemiología , Humanos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Factores de Riesgo , SARS-CoV-2RESUMEN
Various mitigation measures have been implemented to fight the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, including widely adopted social distancing and mandated face covering. However, assessing the effectiveness of those intervention practices hinges on the understanding of virus transmission, which remains uncertain. Here we show that airborne transmission is highly virulent and represents the dominant route to spread the disease. By analyzing the trend and mitigation measures in Wuhan, China, Italy, and New York City, from January 23 to May 9, 2020, we illustrate that the impacts of mitigation measures are discernable from the trends of the pandemic. Our analysis reveals that the difference with and without mandated face covering represents the determinant in shaping the pandemic trends in the three epicenters. This protective measure alone significantly reduced the number of infections, that is, by over 78,000 in Italy from April 6 to May 9 and over 66,000 in New York City from April 17 to May 9. Other mitigation measures, such as social distancing implemented in the United States, are insufficient by themselves in protecting the public. We conclude that wearing of face masks in public corresponds to the most effective means to prevent interhuman transmission, and this inexpensive practice, in conjunction with simultaneous social distancing, quarantine, and contact tracing, represents the most likely fighting opportunity to stop the COVID-19 pandemic. Our work also highlights the fact that sound science is essential in decision-making for the current and future public health pandemics.
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Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Exposición por Inhalación/estadística & datos numéricos , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , COVID-19 , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/clasificación , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Humanos , Exposición por Inhalación/prevención & control , Máscaras/estadística & datos numéricos , Pandemias , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Prevención Primaria/métodos , Prevención Primaria/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena/métodos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , Dispositivos de Protección Respiratoria/estadística & datos numéricos , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
To prevent the spread of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), some types of public spaces have been shut down while others remain open. These decisions constitute a judgment about the relative danger and benefits of those locations. Using mobility data from a large sample of smartphones, nationally representative consumer preference surveys, and economic statistics, we measure the relative transmission reduction benefit and social cost of closing 26 categories of US locations. Our categories include types of shops, entertainments, and service providers. We rank categories by their trade-off of social benefits and transmission risk via dominance across 13 dimensions of risk and importance and through composite indexes. We find that, from February to March 2020, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures indicate should be closed first.
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Conducta , Infecciones por Coronavirus/prevención & control , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Exposición por Inhalación/prevención & control , Modelos Estadísticos , Pandemias/prevención & control , Neumonía Viral/prevención & control , Prevención Primaria/estadística & datos numéricos , Cuarentena/estadística & datos numéricos , COVID-19 , Espacios Confinados , Trazado de Contacto/métodos , Trazado de Contacto/estadística & datos numéricos , Infecciones por Coronavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Coronavirus/transmisión , Costos y Análisis de Costo , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Exposición por Inhalación/estadística & datos numéricos , Museos , Neumonía Viral/epidemiología , Neumonía Viral/transmisión , Prevención Primaria/economía , Prevención Primaria/métodos , Cuarentena/economía , Cuarentena/métodos , Medición de Riesgo , Instituciones Académicas , Teléfono Inteligente/estadística & datos numéricos , Instalaciones Deportivas y Recreativas , Estados UnidosRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Nipah virus is a highly virulent zoonotic pathogen that can be transmitted between humans. Understanding the dynamics of person-to-person transmission is key to designing effective interventions. METHODS: We used data from all Nipah virus cases identified during outbreak investigations in Bangladesh from April 2001 through April 2014 to investigate case-patient characteristics associated with onward transmission and factors associated with the risk of infection among patient contacts. RESULTS: Of 248 Nipah virus cases identified, 82 were caused by person-to-person transmission, corresponding to a reproduction number (i.e., the average number of secondary cases per case patient) of 0.33 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.19 to 0.59). The predicted reproduction number increased with the case patient's age and was highest among patients 45 years of age or older who had difficulty breathing (1.1; 95% CI, 0.4 to 3.2). Case patients who did not have difficulty breathing infected 0.05 times as many contacts (95% CI, 0.01 to 0.3) as other case patients did. Serologic testing of 1863 asymptomatic contacts revealed no infections. Spouses of case patients were more often infected (8 of 56 [14%]) than other close family members (7 of 547 [1.3%]) or other contacts (18 of 1996 [0.9%]). The risk of infection increased with increased duration of exposure of the contacts (adjusted odds ratio for exposure of >48 hours vs. ≤1 hour, 13; 95% CI, 2.6 to 62) and with exposure to body fluids (adjusted odds ratio, 4.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 11). CONCLUSIONS: Increasing age and respiratory symptoms were indicators of infectivity of Nipah virus. Interventions to control person-to-person transmission should aim to reduce exposure to body fluids. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).
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Infecciones por Henipavirus/transmisión , Virus Nipah , Adolescente , Adulto , Factores de Edad , Animales , Bangladesh/epidemiología , Líquidos Corporales/virología , Niño , Trazado de Contacto , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Femenino , Infecciones por Henipavirus/epidemiología , Infecciones por Henipavirus/prevención & control , Humanos , Masculino , Persona de Mediana Edad , Factores de Riesgo , Adulto Joven , Zoonosis/transmisiónRESUMEN
BACKGROUND: Hospitalized patients who are colonized with methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) are at high risk for infection after discharge. METHODS: We conducted a multicenter, randomized, controlled trial of postdischarge hygiene education, as compared with education plus decolonization, in patients colonized with MRSA (carriers). Decolonization involved chlorhexidine mouthwash, baths or showers with chlorhexidine, and nasal mupirocin for 5 days twice per month for 6 months. Participants were followed for 1 year. The primary outcome was MRSA infection as defined according to Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) criteria. Secondary outcomes included MRSA infection determined on the basis of clinical judgment, infection from any cause, and infection-related hospitalization. All analyses were performed with the use of proportional-hazards models in the per-protocol population (all participants who underwent randomization, met the inclusion criteria, and survived beyond the recruitment hospitalization) and as-treated population (participants stratified according to adherence). RESULTS: In the per-protocol population, MRSA infection occurred in 98 of 1063 participants (9.2%) in the education group and in 67 of 1058 (6.3%) in the decolonization group; 84.8% of the MRSA infections led to hospitalization. Infection from any cause occurred in 23.7% of the participants in the education group and 19.6% of those in the decolonization group; 85.8% of the infections led to hospitalization. The hazard of MRSA infection was significantly lower in the decolonization group than in the education group (hazard ratio, 0.70; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.52 to 0.96; P=0.03; number needed to treat to prevent one infection, 30; 95% CI, 18 to 230); this lower hazard led to a lower risk of hospitalization due to MRSA infection (hazard ratio, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.51 to 0.99). The decolonization group had lower likelihoods of clinically judged infection from any cause (hazard ratio, 0.83; 95% CI, 0.70 to 0.99) and infection-related hospitalization (hazard ratio, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.62 to 0.93); treatment effects for secondary outcomes should be interpreted with caution owing to a lack of prespecified adjustment for multiple comparisons. In as-treated analyses, participants in the decolonization group who adhered fully to the regimen had 44% fewer MRSA infections than the education group (hazard ratio, 0.56; 95% CI, 0.36 to 0.86) and had 40% fewer infections from any cause (hazard ratio, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.46 to 0.78). Side effects (all mild) occurred in 4.2% of the participants. CONCLUSIONS: Postdischarge MRSA decolonization with chlorhexidine and mupirocin led to a 30% lower risk of MRSA infection than education alone. (Funded by the AHRQ Healthcare-Associated Infections Program and others; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT01209234 .).
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Antibacterianos/uso terapéutico , Antiinfecciosos Locales/uso terapéutico , Clorhexidina/uso terapéutico , Desinfección , Staphylococcus aureus Resistente a Meticilina , Mupirocina/uso terapéutico , Infecciones Estafilocócicas/tratamiento farmacológico , Administración Intranasal , Adulto , Anciano , Portador Sano , Comorbilidad , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Femenino , Estudios de Seguimiento , Hospitalización/estadística & datos numéricos , Humanos , Higiene/educación , Control de Infecciones/métodos , Masculino , Staphylococcus aureus Resistente a Meticilina/aislamiento & purificación , Persona de Mediana Edad , Educación del Paciente como Asunto , Infecciones Estafilocócicas/prevención & control , Infecciones Estafilocócicas/transmisiónRESUMEN
Simian immunodeficiency virus infecting sooty mangabeys (SIVsmm) has been transmitted to humans on at least nine occasions, giving rise to human immunodeficiency virus type 2 (HIV-2) groups A to I. SIVsmm isolates replicate in human T cells and seem capable of overcoming major human restriction factors without adaptation. However, only groups A and B are responsible for the HIV-2 epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, and it is largely unclear whether adaptive changes were associated with spread in humans. To address this, we examined the sensitivity of infectious molecular clones (IMCs) of five HIV-2 strains and representatives of five different SIVsmm lineages to various APOBEC3 proteins. We confirmed that SIVsmm strains replicate in human T cells, albeit with more variable replication fitness and frequently lower efficiency than HIV-2 IMCs. Efficient viral propagation was generally dependent on intact vif genes, highlighting the need for counteraction of APOBEC3 proteins. On average, SIVsmm was more susceptible to inhibition by human APOBEC3D, -F, -G, and -H than HIV-2. For example, human APOBEC3F reduced infectious virus yield of SIVsmm by â¼80% but achieved only â¼40% reduction in the case of HIV-2. Functional and mutational analyses of human- and monkey-derived alleles revealed that an R128T polymorphism in APOBEC3F contributes to species-specific counteraction by HIV-2 and SIVsmm Vifs. In addition, a T84S substitution in SIVsmm Vif increased its ability to counteract human APOBEC3F. Altogether, our results confirm that SIVsmm Vif proteins show intrinsic activity against human APOBEC3 proteins but also demonstrate that epidemic HIV-2 strains evolved an increased ability to counteract this class of restriction factors during human adaptation. IMPORTANCE Viral zoonoses pose a significant threat to human health, and it is important to understand determining factors. SIVs infecting great apes gave rise to HIV-1. In contrast, SIVs infecting African monkey species have not been detected in humans, with one notable exception. SIVsmm from sooty mangabeys has crossed the species barrier to humans on at least nine independent occasions and seems capable of overcoming many innate defense mechanisms without adaptation. Here, we confirmed that SIVsmm Vif proteins show significant activity against human APOBEC3 proteins. Our analyses also revealed, however, that different lineages of SIVsmm are significantly more susceptible to inhibition by various human APOBEC3 proteins than HIV-2 strains. Mutational analyses suggest that an R128T substitution in APOBEC3F and a T84S change in Vif contribute to species-specific counteraction by HIV-2 and SIVsmm. Altogether, our results support that epidemic HIV-2 strains acquired increased activity against human APOBEC3 proteins to clear this restrictive barrier.
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Citosina Desaminasa/metabolismo , Productos del Gen vif/metabolismo , Infecciones por VIH/prevención & control , VIH-2/genética , Interacciones Huésped-Patógeno , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida del Simio/transmisión , Virus de la Inmunodeficiencia de los Simios/fisiología , Animales , Cercocebus atys , Citosina Desaminasa/genética , Transmisión de Enfermedad Infecciosa/prevención & control , Productos del Gen vif/genética , Infecciones por VIH/metabolismo , Infecciones por VIH/virología , Humanos , Mutación , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida del Simio/epidemiología , Síndrome de Inmunodeficiencia Adquirida del Simio/virología , Virus de la Inmunodeficiencia de los Simios/clasificación , Replicación ViralRESUMEN
In December 2019, novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (nSARS-CoV-2) virus outbreaks emerged from Wuhan, China, and spread all over the world, including India. Molecular diagnosis of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID) 19 for densely and highly populated countries like India is time-consuming. A few reports have described the successful diagnosis of nSARS-CoV-2 virus from sewage and wastewater samples contaminated with fecal matter, suggesting the diagnosis of COVID 19 from the same to raise an alarm about the community transmission of virus for implementation of evacuation and lockdown strategies. So far, the association between the detection of virus and its concentration in stool samples with severity of the disease and the presence or absence of gastrointestinal symptoms have been rarely reported. We led the search utilizing multiple databases, specifically PubMed (Medline), EMBASE, and Google Scholar. We conducted a literature survey on gastrointestinal infection and the spread of this virus through fecal-oral transmission. Reports suggested that the existence and persistence of nSARS-CoV-2 in anal/rectal swabs and stool specimens for a longer period of time than in nasopharyngeal swabs provides a strong tenable outcome of gastrointestinal contamination and dissemination of this infection via potential fecal-oral transmission. This review may be helpful to conduct further studies to address the enteric involvement and excretion of nSARS-CoV-2 RNA in feces and control the community spread in both COVID-19 patients ahead of the onset of symptoms and in asymptomatic individuals through wastewater and sewage surveillance as an early indication of infection. The existence of the viral genome and active viral particle actively participate in genomic variations. Hence, we comprehended the enteric spread of different viruses amongst communities with special reference to nSARS-CoV-2.