Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling.

We evaluate approaches to vaccine distribution using an agent-based model of human activity and COVID-19 transmission calibrated to detailed trends in cases, hospitalizations, deaths, seroprevalence, and vaccine breakthrough infections in Florida, USA. We compare the incremental effectiveness for four different distribution strategies at four different levels of vaccine supply, starting in late 2020 through early 2022. Our analysis indicates that the best strategy to reduce severe outcomes would be to actively target high disease-risk individuals. This was true in every scenario, although the advantage was greatest for the intermediate vaccine availability assumptions and relatively modest compared to a simple mass vaccination approach under high vaccine availability. Ring vaccination, while generally the most effective strategy for reducing infections, ultimately proved least effective at preventing deaths. We also consider using age group as a practical surrogate measure for actual disease-risk targeting; this approach also outperforms both simple mass distribution and ring vaccination. We find that quantitative effectiveness of a strategy depends on whether effectiveness is assessed after the alpha, delta, or omicron wave. However, these differences in absolute benefit for the strategies do not change the ranking of their performance at preventing severe outcomes across vaccine availability assumptions.

Comprehensive Review on the Use of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) in Ethiopia: 2019 to 2023.

BACKGROUND: Cholera outbreaks in Ethiopia necessitate frequent mass oral cholera vaccine (OCV) campaigns. Despite this, there is a notable absence of a comprehensive summary of these campaigns. Understanding national OCV vaccination history is essential to design appropriate and effective cholera control strategies. Here, we aimed to retrospectively review all OCV vaccination campaigns conducted across Ethiopia between 2019 and 2023. METHODS: The OCV request records from 2019 to October 2023 and vaccination campaign reports for the period from 2019 to December 2023 were retrospectively accessed from the Ethiopia Public Health Institute (EPHI) database. Descriptive analysis was conducted using the retrospective data collected. RESULTS: From 2019 to October 2023, Ethiopian government requested 32 044 576 OCV doses (31 899 576 doses to global stockpile; 145 000 doses to outside of stockpile). Around 66.3% of requested doses were approved; of which 90.4% were received. Fifteen OCV campaigns (12 reactive and 3 pre-emptive) were conducted, including five two-dose campaigns with varying dose intervals and single-dose campaigns partially in 2019 and entirely in 2021, 2022 and 2023. Overall vaccine administrative coverage was high; except for Tigray region (41.8% in the 1st round; 2nd round didn't occur). The vaccine administrative coverage records were documented, but no OCV coverage survey data was available. CONCLUSIONS: This study represents the first comprehensive review of OCV campaigns in Ethiopia spanning the last five years. Its findings offer valuable insights into informing future cholera control strategies, underscoring the importance of monitoring and evaluation despite resource constraints. Addressing the limitations in coverage survey data availability is crucial for enhancing the efficacy of future campaigns.

Measles Outbreak Associated with a Migrant Shelter - Chicago, Illinois, February-May 2024.

Measles, a highly contagious respiratory virus with the potential to cause severe complications, hospitalization, and death, was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000; however, with ongoing global transmission, infections in the United States still occur. On March 7, 2024, the Chicago Department of Public Health (CDPH) confirmed a case of measles in a male aged 1 year residing in a temporary shelter for migrants in Chicago. Given the congregate nature of the setting, high transmissibility of measles, and low measles vaccination coverage among shelter residents, measles virus had the potential to spread rapidly among approximately 2,100 presumed exposed shelter residents. CDPH immediately instituted outbreak investigation and response activities in collaboration with state and local health departments, health care facilities, city agencies, and shelters. On March 8, CDPH implemented active case-finding and coordinated a mass vaccination campaign at the affected shelter (shelter A), including vaccinating 882 residents and verifying previous vaccination for 784 residents over 3 days. These activities resulted in 93% measles vaccination coverage (defined as receipt of ≥1 recorded measles vaccine dose) by March 11. By May 13, a total of 57 confirmed measles cases associated with residing in or having contact with persons from shelter A had been reported. Most cases (41; 72%) were among persons who did not have documentation of measles vaccination and were considered unvaccinated. In addition, 16 cases of measles occurred among persons who had received ≥1 measles vaccine dose ≥21 days before first known exposure. This outbreak underscores the need to ensure high vaccination coverage among communities residing in congregate settings.

Assessing seropositivity of MMR antibodies in individuals aged 2-22: evaluating routine vaccination effectiveness after the 2003 mass campaign-a study from Iran's National Measles Laboratory.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The seroprevalence of antibodies against measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) was evaluated 17 years following a mass vaccination campaign in individuals aged 2 to 22 years who had received routine immunization but were not eligible for an extended immunization program. METHODS: Samples were acquired from Iran's National Measles Laboratory (NML), with individuals showing positive IgM results excluded. Out of the samples collected in 2020, a random selection of 290 serum samples was chosen, representing individuals between the ages of 2 and 22 years from diverse regions in the country. These samples were subjected to analysis using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) to quantify specific IgG antibodies against MMR. RESULTS: The seroprevalence rates of antibodies for measles, mumps, and rubella were determined to be 76.2%, 89.3%, and 76.9%, respectively. Younger age groups exhibited higher seropositivity rates for measles and mumps, whereas the 7- to 11-year-old group demonstrated the highest seropositivity rate for rubella. A reduction in antibody status was observed from younger to older age groups, particularly those aged 17-22. CONCLUSION: The study unveiled suboptimal antibody levels for measles and rubella, highlighting the necessity for further investigation and potential adjustments to future vaccination strategies. Moreover, the decline in antibody status post-vaccination can accumulate in seronegative individuals over time, elevating the risk of outbreaks.

Health and economic impact of the pneumococcal conjugate vaccine in hindering antimicrobial resistance in China.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a serious threat to global public health. However, vaccinations have been largely undervalued as a method to hinder AMR progression. This study examined the AMR impact of increasing pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV) coverage in China. China has one of the world's highest rates of antibiotic use and low PCV coverage. We developed an agent-based DREAMR (Dynamic Representation of the Economics of AMR) model to examine the health and economic benefits of slowing AMR against commonly used antibiotics. We simulated PCV coverage, pneumococcal infections, antibiotic use, and AMR accumulation. Four antibiotics to treat pneumococcal diseases (penicillin, amoxicillin, third-generation cephalosporins, and meropenem) were modeled with antibiotic utilization, pharmacokinetics, and pharmacodynamics factored into predicting AMR accumulation. Three PCV coverage scenarios were simulated over 5 y: 1) status quo with no change in coverage, 2) scaled coverage increase to 99% in 5 y, and 3) accelerated coverage increase to 85% over 2 y followed by 3 y to reach 99% coverage. Compared to the status quo, we found that AMR against penicillin, amoxicillin, and third-generation cephalosporins was significantly reduced by 6.6%, 10.9%, and 9.8% in the scaled scenario and by 10.5%, 17.0%, and 15.4% in the accelerated scenario. Cumulative costs due to AMR, including direct and indirect costs to patients and caretakers, were reduced by $371 million in the scaled and $586 million in the accelerated scenarios compared to the status quo. AMR-reducing benefits of vaccines are essential to quantify in order to drive appropriate investment.

Temporal trends and spatial clusters of high risk for maternal death due to COVID-19 pre and during COVID-19 vaccination in Brazil: a national population-based ecological study.

OBJECTIVE: This study comprehensively analyzed the temporal and spatial dynamics of COVID-19 cases and deaths within the obstetric population in Brazil, comparing the periods before and during mass COVID-19 vaccination. We explored the trends and geographical patterns of COVID-19 cases and maternal deaths over time. We also examined their correlation with the SARS-CoV-2 variant circulating and the social determinants of health. STUDY DESIGN: This is a nationwide population-based ecological study. METHODS: We obtained data on COVID-19 cases, deaths, socioeconomic status, and vulnerability information for Brazil's 5570 municipalities for both the pre-COVID-19 vaccination and COVID-19 vaccination periods. A Bayesian model was used to mitigate indicator fluctuations. The spatial correlation of maternal cases and fatalities with socioeconomic and vulnerability indicators was assessed using bivariate Moran. RESULTS: From March 2020 to June 2023, a total of 23,823 cases and 1991 maternal fatalities were recorded among pregnant and postpartum women. The temporal trends in maternal incidence and mortality rates fluctuated over the study period, largely influenced by widespread COVID-19 vaccination and the dominant SARS-CoV-2 variant. There was a significant reduction in maternal mortality due to COVID-19 following the introduction of vaccination. The geographical distribution of COVID-19 cases and maternal deaths exhibited marked heterogeneity in both periods, with distinct spatial clusters predominantly observed in the North, Northeast, and Central West regions. Municipalities with the highest Human Development Index reported the highest incidence rates, while those with the highest levels of social vulnerability exhibited elevated mortality and fatality rates. CONCLUSION: Despite the circulation of highly transmissible variants of concern, maternal mortality due to COVID-19 was significantly reduced following the mass vaccination. There was a heterogeneous distribution of cases and fatalities in both periods (before and during mass vaccination). Smaller municipalities and those grappling with social vulnerability issues experienced the highest rates of maternal mortality and fatalities.

Measles.

Measles is a highly contagious, potentially fatal, but vaccine-preventable disease caused by measles virus. Symptoms include fever, maculopapular rash, and at least one of cough, coryza, or conjunctivitis, although vaccinated individuals can have milder or even no symptoms. Laboratory diagnosis relies largely on the detection of specific IgM antibodies in serum, dried blood spots, or oral fluid, or the detection of viral RNA in throat or nasopharyngeal swabs, urine, or oral fluid. Complications can affect many organs and often include otitis media, laryngotracheobronchitis, pneumonia, stomatitis, and diarrhoea. Neurological complications are uncommon but serious, and can occur during or soon after the acute disease (eg, acute disseminated encephalomyelitis) or months or even years later (eg, measles inclusion body encephalitis and subacute sclerosing panencephalitis). Patient management mainly involves supportive therapy, such as vitamin A supplementation, monitoring for and treatment of secondary bacterial infections with antibiotics, and rehydration in the case of severe diarrhoea. There is no specific antiviral therapy for the treatment of measles, and disease control largely depends on prevention. However, despite the availability of a safe and effective vaccine, measles is still endemic in many countries and causes considerable morbidity and mortality, especially among children in resource-poor settings. The low case numbers reported in 2020, after a worldwide resurgence of measles between 2017 and 2019, have to be interpreted cautiously, owing to the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on disease surveillance. Disrupted vaccination activities during the pandemic increase the potential for another resurgence of measles in the near future, and effective, timely catch-up vaccination campaigns, strong commitment and leadership, and sufficient resources will be required to mitigate this threat.

The role of childrens' vaccination for COVID-19-Pareto-optimal allocations of vaccines.

COVID-19 vaccines have been approved for children of age five and older in many countries. However, there is an ongoing debate as to whether children should be vaccinated and at what priority. In this work, we use mathematical modeling and optimization to study how vaccine allocations to different age groups effect epidemic outcomes. In particular, we consider the effect of extending vaccination campaigns to include the vaccination of children. When vaccine availability is limited, we consider Pareto-optimal allocations with respect to competing measures of the number of infections and mortality and systematically study the trade-offs among them. In the scenarios considered, when some weight is given to the number of infections, we find that it is optimal to allocate vaccines to adolescents in the age group 10-19, even when they are assumed to be less susceptible than adults. We further find that age group 0-9 is included in the optimal allocation for sufficiently high values of the basic reproduction number.

Prosocial polio vaccination in Israel.

Regions with insufficient vaccination have hindered worldwide poliomyelitis eradication, as they are vulnerable to sporadic outbreaks through reintroduction of the disease. Despite Israel's having been declared polio-free in 1988, a routine sewage surveillance program detected polio in 2013. To curtail transmission, the Israel Ministry of Health launched a vaccine campaign to vaccinate children-who had only received the inactivated polio vaccine-with the oral polio vaccine (OPV). Determining the degree of prosocial motivation in vaccination behavior is challenging because vaccination typically provides direct benefits to the individual as well as indirect benefits to the community by curtailing transmission. However, the Israel OPV campaign provides a unique and excellent opportunity to quantify and model prosocial vaccination as its primary objective was to avert transmission. Using primary survey data and a game-theoretical model, we examine and quantify prosocial behavior during the OPV campaign. We found that the observed vaccination behavior in the Israeli OPV campaign is attributable to prosocial behavior and heterogeneous perceived risk of paralysis based on the individual's comprehension of the prosocial nature of the campaign. We also found that the benefit of increasing comprehension of the prosocial nature of the campaign would be limited if even 24% of the population acts primarily from self-interest, as greater vaccination coverage provides no personal utility to them. Our results suggest that to improve coverage, communication efforts should also focus on alleviating perceived fears surrounding the vaccine.

Changing Epidemiology of Hepatitis A in China: Evidence From Three National Serological Surveys and the National Notifiable Disease Reporting System.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS: China has conducted surveillance for hepatitis A since 1990, and hepatitis A was highly-to-intermediately endemic in 1992 when a Chinese hepatitis A vaccine (HepA) was licensed and introduced as a family-pay vaccine. In 2008, HepA was introduced into the Expanded Program on Immunization as a free childhood vaccine. APPROACH AND RESULTS: Three nationally representative surveys conducted in 1992, 2006, and 2014 assessed hepatitis B serology. The 1992 survey included hepatitis A virus (HAV) serology, and we tested sera from the 2006 and 2014 surveys for HAV antibodies. We used surveillance, seroprevalence, and vaccination status data to describe the changing epidemiology of hepatitis A in China from 1990 through 2014. Before HepA licensure, anti-HAV seroprevalence was 60% at 4 years of age, 70% at 10 years, and 90% at 59 years; incidence was 52/100,000 and peaked at 4 years. In 2006, after >10 years of private sector vaccination, HepA coverage was <30% among children <5 years, and incidence was 5.4/100,000 with a peak at 10 years. In 2014, coverage was >90% among children under 5 years; incidence was 1.9/100,000. Individuals born before the national introduction of HepA (1988-2004) had lower anti-HAV seroprevalence than earlier and later birth cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: The incidence of hepatitis A declined markedly following HepA introduction and improvement of sanitation and hygiene. The emerging epidemiology is consistent with disease-induced immunity having been replaced by vaccine-induced immunity, resulting in a low incidence of hepatitis A. Catch-up HepA campaigns to close the immunity gap among the 1998-2004 birth cohorts should be considered.

Multiscale model for forecasting Sabin 2 vaccine virus household and community transmission.

Since the global withdrawal of Sabin 2 oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) from routine immunization, the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) has reported multiple circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus type 2 (cVDPV2) outbreaks. Here, we generated an agent-based, mechanistic model designed to assess OPV-related vaccine virus transmission risk in populations with heterogeneous immunity, demography, and social mixing patterns. To showcase the utility of our model, we present a simulation of mOPV2-related Sabin 2 transmission in rural Matlab, Bangladesh based on stool samples collected from infants and their household contacts during an mOPV2 clinical trial. Sabin 2 transmission following the mOPV2 clinical trial was replicated by specifying multiple, heterogeneous contact rates based on household and community membership. Once calibrated, the model generated Matlab-specific insights regarding poliovirus transmission following an accidental point importation or mass vaccination event. We also show that assuming homogeneous contact rates (mass action), as is common of poliovirus forecast models, does not accurately represent the clinical trial and risks overestimating forecasted poliovirus outbreak probability. Our study identifies household and community structure as an important source of transmission heterogeneity when assessing OPV-related transmission risk and provides a calibratable framework for expanding these analyses to other populations. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov, NCT02477046.

Relaxing restrictions at the pace of vaccination increases freedom and guards against further COVID-19 waves.

Mass vaccination offers a promising exit strategy for the COVID-19 pandemic. However, as vaccination progresses, demands to lift restrictions increase, despite most of the population remaining susceptible. Using our age-stratified SEIRD-ICU compartmental model and curated epidemiological and vaccination data, we quantified the rate (relative to vaccination progress) at which countries can lift non-pharmaceutical interventions without overwhelming their healthcare systems. We analyzed scenarios ranging from immediately lifting restrictions (accepting high mortality and morbidity) to reducing case numbers to a level where test-trace-and-isolate (TTI) programs efficiently compensate for local spreading events. In general, the age-dependent vaccination roll-out implies a transient decrease of more than ten years in the average age of ICU patients and deceased. The pace of vaccination determines the speed of lifting restrictions; Taking the European Union (EU) as an example case, all considered scenarios allow for steadily increasing contacts starting in May 2021 and relaxing most restrictions by autumn 2021. Throughout summer 2021, only mild contact restrictions will remain necessary. However, only high vaccine uptake can prevent further severe waves. Across EU countries, seroprevalence impacts the long-term success of vaccination campaigns more strongly than age demographics. In addition, we highlight the need for preventive measures to reduce contagion in school settings throughout the year 2021, where children might be drivers of contagion because of them remaining susceptible. Strategies that maintain low case numbers, instead of high ones, reduce infections and deaths by factors of eleven and five, respectively. In general, policies with low case numbers significantly benefit from vaccination, as the overall reduction in susceptibility will further diminish viral spread. Keeping case numbers low is the safest long-term strategy because it considerably reduces mortality and morbidity and offers better preparedness against emerging escape or more contagious virus variants while still allowing for higher contact numbers (freedom) with progressing vaccinations.

Optimal vaccine allocation for COVID-19 in the Netherlands: A data-driven prioritization.

For the control of COVID-19, vaccination programmes provide a long-term solution. The amount of available vaccines is often limited, and thus it is crucial to determine the allocation strategy. While mathematical modelling approaches have been used to find an optimal distribution of vaccines, there is an excessively large number of possible allocation schemes to be simulated. Here, we propose an algorithm to find a near-optimal allocation scheme given an intervention objective such as minimization of new infections, hospitalizations, or deaths, where multiple vaccines are available. The proposed principle for allocating vaccines is to target subgroups with the largest reduction in the outcome of interest. We use an approximation method to reconstruct the age-specific transmission intensity (the next generation matrix), and express the expected impact of vaccinating each subgroup in terms of the observed incidence of infection and force of infection. The proposed approach is firstly evaluated with a simulated epidemic and then applied to the epidemiological data on COVID-19 in the Netherlands. Our results reveal how the optimal allocation depends on the objective of infection control. In the case of COVID-19, if we wish to minimize deaths, the optimal allocation strategy is not efficient for minimizing other outcomes, such as infections. In simulated epidemics, an allocation strategy optimized for an outcome outperforms other strategies such as the allocation from young to old, from old to young, and at random. Our simulations clarify that the current policy in the Netherlands (i.e., allocation from old to young) was concordant with the allocation scheme that minimizes deaths. The proposed method provides an optimal allocation scheme, given routine surveillance data that reflect ongoing transmissions. This approach to allocation is useful for providing plausible simulation scenarios for complex models, which give a more robust basis to determine intervention strategies.

Analyses of Confirmed COVID-19 Cases Among Korean Military Personnel After Mass Vaccination.

BACKGROUND: The military was one of the first groups in Korea to complete mass vaccination against the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to their high vulnerability to COVID-19. To confirm the effect of mass vaccination, this study analyzed the patterns of confirmed cases within Korean military units. METHODS: From August 1 to September 15, 2021, all epidemiological data regarding confirmed COVID-19 cases in military units were reviewed. The number of confirmed cases in the units that were believed to have achieved herd immunity (i.e., ≥ 70% vaccination) was compared with the number of cases in the units that were not believed to have reached herd immunity (< 70% vaccination). Additionally, trends in the incidence rates of COVID-19 in the military and the entire Korean population were compared. RESULTS: By August 2021, 85.60% of military personnel were fully vaccinated. During the study period, a total of 174 COVID-19 cases were confirmed in the 39 units. More local transmission (herd immunity group vs. non-herd immunity group [%], 1 [0.91] vs. 39 [60.94]) and hospitalizations (12 [11.01] vs. 13 [27.08]) occurred in the units that were not believed to have achieved herd immunity. The percentage of fully vaccinated individuals among the confirmed COVID-19 cases increased over time, possibly due to the prevalence of the delta variant. Nevertheless, the incidence rate remained lower in military units than in the general Korean population. CONCLUSION: After completing mass vaccination, the incidence rates of COVID-19 infection in the military were lower than those in the national population. New cluster infections did not occur in vaccinated units, thereby suggesting that herd immunity has been achieved in these military units. Further research is needed to determine the extent to which levels of non-pharmacological intervention can be reduced in the future.

Assessing the stability of polio eradication after the withdrawal of oral polio vaccine.

The oral polio vaccine (OPV) contains live-attenuated polioviruses that induce immunity by causing low virulence infections in vaccine recipients and their close contacts. Widespread immunization with OPV has reduced the annual global burden of paralytic poliomyelitis by a factor of 10,000 or more and has driven wild poliovirus (WPV) to the brink of eradication. However, in instances that have so far been rare, OPV can paralyze vaccine recipients and generate vaccine-derived polio outbreaks. To complete polio eradication, OPV use should eventually cease, but doing so will leave a growing population fully susceptible to infection. If poliovirus is reintroduced after OPV cessation, under what conditions will OPV vaccination be required to interrupt transmission? Can conditions exist in which OPV and WPV reintroduction present similar risks of transmission? To answer these questions, we built a multi-scale mathematical model of infection and transmission calibrated to data from clinical trials and field epidemiology studies. At the within-host level, the model describes the effects of vaccination and waning immunity on shedding and oral susceptibility to infection. At the between-host level, the model emulates the interaction of shedding and oral susceptibility with sanitation and person-to-person contact patterns to determine the transmission rate in communities. Our results show that inactivated polio vaccine (IPV) is sufficient to prevent outbreaks in low transmission rate settings and that OPV can be reintroduced and withdrawn as needed in moderate transmission rate settings. However, in high transmission rate settings, the conditions that support vaccine-derived outbreaks have only been rare because population immunity has been high. Absent population immunity, the Sabin strains from OPV will be nearly as capable of causing outbreaks as WPV. If post-cessation outbreak responses are followed by new vaccine-derived outbreaks, strategies to restore population immunity will be required to ensure the stability of polio eradication.

Of Mice and Schoolchildren: A Conceptual History of Herd Immunity.

This article explores a tension at the core of the concept of herd immunity that has been overlooked in public and scientific discussions-namely: how can immunity, a phenomenon of individual biological defenses, be made relevant to populations? How can collectives be considered "immune"? Over the course of more than a century of use of the term, scientists have developed many different understandings of the concept in response to this inherent tension. Originating among veterinary scientists in the United States in the late 19th century, the concept was adopted by British scientists researching human infectious disease by the early 1920s. It soon became a staple concept for epidemiologists interested in disease ecology, helping to articulate the population dynamics of diseases such as diphtheria and influenza. Finally, though more traditional understandings of the concept remained in scientific use, in the era after World War II, it increasingly came to signal the objective and outcome of mass vaccination. Recognizing the complexity of scientific efforts to resolve the paradox of herd immunity may help us consider the best distribution of immunity against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2).