Drought severity and all-cause mortality rates among adults in the United States: 1968-2014.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the effect of drought on all-cause mortality, especially in higher income countries such as the United States. As the frequency and severity of droughts are likely to increase, understanding the connections between drought and mortality becomes increasingly important. METHODS: Our exposure variable was an annual cumulative drought severity score based on the 1-month, county-level Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index. The outcome variables of demographic subgroup-specific all-cause mortality count data per year were obtained from the National Vital Statistics System. Any counts below 10 deaths were censored in that demographic group per county. We modeled county-stratum-year mortality using interval-censored negative binomial regression with county-level random intercepts, for each combined age-race-sex stratum either with or without further stratification by climate regions. Fixed effects meta-regression was used to test the associations between age, race, sex, and region with the drought-mortality regression coefficients. Predictive margins were then calculated from the meta-regression model to estimate larger subgroup (e.g., 'race' or 'sex') associations of drought with mortality. RESULTS: Most of the results were null for associations between drought severity and mortality, across joint strata of race, age, sex and region, but incidence rate ratios (IRRs) for 17 subgroups were significant after accounting for the multiple testing; ten were < 1 indicating a possible protective effect of drought on mortality for that particular subpopulation. The meta-regression indicated heterogeneity in the association of drought with mortality according to race, climate region, and age, but not by sex. Marginal means of the estimated log-incidence rate ratios differed significantly from zero for age groups 25-34, 35-44, 45-54 and 55-64; for the white race group; and for the South, West and Southwest regions, in the analysis that included wet county-years. The margin of the meta-regression model suggested a slightly negative, but not statistically significant, association of drought with same-year mortality in the overall population. CONCLUSIONS: There were significant, heterogeneous-direction associations in subpopulation-stratified models, after controlling for multiple comparisons, suggesting that the impacts of drought on mortality may not be monolithic across the United States. Meta-regression identified systematic differences in the associations of drought severity with all-cause mortality according to climate region, race, and age. These findings suggest there may be important contextual differences in the effects of drought severity on mortality, motivating further work focused on local mechanisms. We speculate that some of the estimated negative associations of drought severity with same-year mortality could be consistent with either a protective effect of drought on total mortality in the same year, or with a delayed health effect of drought beyond the same year. Further research is needed to clarify associations of drought with more specific causes of death and with sublethal health outcomes, for specific subpopulations, and considering lagged effects occurring beyond the same year as the drought.

Existing Challenges and Opportunities for Advancing Drought and Health Research.

PURPOSE OF REVIEW: Drought is one of the most far-reaching natural disasters, yet drought and health research is sparse. This may be attributed to the challenge of quantifying drought exposure, something complicated by multiple drought indices without any designed for health research. The purpose of this general review is to evaluate current drought and health literature and highlight challenges or scientific considerations when performing drought exposure and health assessments. RECENT FINDINGS: The literature revealed a small, but growing, number of drought and health studies primarily emphasizing Australian, western European, and US populations. The selection of drought indices and definitions of drought are inconsistent. Rural and agricultural populations have been identified as vulnerable cohorts, particularly for mental health outcomes. Using relevant examples, we discuss the importance of characterizing drought and explore why health outcomes, populations of interest, and compound environmental hazards are crucial considerations for drought and health assessments. As climate and health research is prioritized, we propose guidance for investigators performing drought-focused analyses.

The effect of heterogeneous severe drought on all-cause and cardiovascular mortality in the Northern Rockies and Plains of the United States.

Drought is a distinct and complicated climate hazard that regularly leads to severe economic impacts. Changes in the frequency and occurrence of drought due to anthropogenic climate change can lead to new and unanticipated outcomes. To better prepare for health outcomes, more research is needed to develop methodologies to understand potential consequences. This study suggests a new methodology for assessing the impact of monthly severe drought exposure on mortality in the Northern Rockies and Plains of the United States from 2000 to 2018. A two-stage model with the power prior approach was applied to integrate heterogeneous severe drought pattern and estimate overall risk ratios of all-cause and cardiovascular mortality related to multiple drought indices (the US Drought Monitor, 6- and 12-month Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, 6- and 12 month Evaporative Demand Drought Index). Under severe drought, the risk ratios of all-cause mortality are 1.050 (95 % Cr: 1.031 to 1.071, USDM), 1.041 (95 % Cr: 1.022 to 1.060, 6-SPEI), 1.009 (95 % Cr: 0.989 to 1.031, 12SPEI), 1.045 (95 % Cr: 1.022 to 1.067, 6-EDDI), and 1.035 (95 % Cr: 1.009 to 1.062, 12-EDDI); cardiovascular mortality are 1.057 (95 % Cr: 1.023 to 1.091, USDM), 1.028 (95 % Cr: 0.998 to 1.059, 6-SPEI), 1.005 (95 % Cr: 0.973 to 1.040, 12-SPEI), 1.042 (95 % Cr: 1.005 to 1.080, 6-EDDI), and 1.004 (95 % Cr: 0.959 to 1.049, 12-EDDI). Our results showed that (i) a model with properly accounted for heterogeneous exposure pattern had greater risk ratios if statistically significant; (ii) a mid-term (6-month) severe drought had higher risk ratios compared to longer-term (12-month) drought; and (iii) different severe droughts affect populations in a different way. These results expand the existing knowledge of drought relationship to increasing mortality in the United States. The findings from this study highlight the need for communities and policymakers to establish effective drought-prevention initiatives in this region.

Hierarchical Modeling of Psychosocial, Parental, and Environmental Factors for Susceptibility to Tobacco Product Use in 9-10-Year-Old Children.

PURPOSE: Tobacco use during early adolescence can harm brain development and cause adverse health outcomes. Identifying susceptibility in early adolescence before initiation presents an opportunity for tobacco use prevention. METHODS: Data were drawn from the Adolescent Brain and Cognitive Development study that enrolled 9-10-year-old children in 21 US cities between 2016 and 2018 at baseline. Separate nested hierarchical models were performed to incrementally examine the associations of sociodemographic factors, psychosocial influences, parental substance use, immediate social contacts, and perceived neighborhood safety with tobacco use susceptibility among never tobacco users (n = 10,449), overall and stratified by gender. RESULTS: A total of 16.6% of youths who have never used tobacco reported susceptibility to tobacco. Females (vs. males, adjusted odds ratio [AOR] [95% confidence interval {CI}] = 0.80 [0.70-0.91]), positive parental monitoring (AOR [95% CI] = 0.76 [0.66-0.87]) and positive school environment (AOR [95% CI] = 0.95 [0.93-0.98]) were associated with reduced susceptibility to tobacco use. Parental education level (high school, AOR [95% CI] = 1.52 [1.02-2.28]; bachelor's degree, AOR [95% CI] = 1.53 [1.03-2.28]; or postgraduate degree, AOR [95% CI] = 1.54 [1.03-2.3] vs. less than high school), youth substance ever use (AOR [95% CI] = 2.24 [1.95-2.58]), internalizing problems (AOR [95% CI] = 1.03 [1-1.06]), and high scores on negative urgency, lack of premeditation, lack of perseverance, sensation seeking, and positive urgency-impulsive behavior scale were associated with increased susceptibility to tobacco use. Stratified analysis showed that parent-perceived neighborhood safety was associated with reduced susceptibility to tobacco use among males but not among females (AOR [95% CI] = 0.89 [0.81-0.99]) vs. (AOR [95% CI] = 1.01 [0.9-1.13]). A positive school environment was associated with lower susceptibility to tobacco use among females but not among males. DISCUSSION: Parental, environmental, and psychosocial factors influence early childhood tobacco susceptibility. Family and school-based tobacco prevention programs should consider integrating these factors into primary school curricula to reduce youth tobacco susceptibility and later initiation.

The Association between Drought Exposure and Respiratory-Related Mortality in the United States from 2000 to 2018.

Climate change has brought increasing attention to the assessment of health risks associated with climate and extreme events. Drought is a complex climate phenomenon that has been increasing in frequency and severity both locally and globally due to climate change. However, the health risks of drought are often overlooked, especially in places such as the United States, as the pathways to health impacts are complex and indirect. This study aims to conduct a comprehensive assessment of the effects of monthly drought exposure on respiratory mortality for NOAA climate regions in the United States from 2000 to 2018. A two-stage model was applied to estimate the location-specific and overall effects of respiratory risk associated with two different drought indices over two timescales (the US Drought Monitor and the 6-month and 12-month Evaporative Demand Drought Index). During moderate and severe drought exposure, respiratory mortality risk ratio in the general population increased up to 6.0% (95% Cr: 4.8 to 7.2) in the Northeast, 9.0% (95% Cr: 4.9 to 13.3) in the Northern Rockies and Plains, 5.2% (95% Cr: 3.9 to 6.5) in the Ohio Valley, 3.5% (95% Cr: 1.9 to 5.0) in the Southeast, and 15.9% (95% Cr: 10.8 to 20.4) in the Upper Midwest. Our results showed that age, ethnicity, sex (both male and female), and urbanicity (both metro and non-metro) resulted in more affected population subgroups in certain climate regions. The magnitude and direction of respiratory risk ratio differed across NOAA climate regions. These results demonstrate a need for policymakers and communities to develop more effective strategies to mitigate the effects of drought across regions.

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Heat Wave Definitions among North Carolina Physiographic Regions.

Exposure to extreme heat is a known risk factor that is associated with increased heat-related illness (HRI) outcomes. The relevance of heat wave definitions (HWDs) could change across health conditions and geographies due to the heterogenous climate profile. This study compared the sensitivity of 28 HWDs associated with HRI emergency department visits over five summer seasons (2011−2016), stratified by two physiographic regions (Coastal and Piedmont) in North Carolina. The HRI rate ratios associated with heat waves were estimated using the generalized linear regression framework assuming a negative binomial distribution. We compared the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) values across the HWDs to identify an optimal HWD. In the Coastal region, HWDs based on daily maximum temperature with a threshold > 90th percentile for two or more consecutive days had the optimal model fit. In the Piedmont region, HWD based on the daily minimum temperature with a threshold value > 90th percentile for two or more consecutive days was optimal. The HWDs with optimal model performance included in this study captured moderate and frequent heat episodes compared to the National Weather Service (NWS) heat products. This study compared the HRI morbidity risk associated with epidemiologic-based HWDs and with NWS heat products. Our findings could be used for public health education and suggest recalibrating NWS heat products.

Drought and all-cause mortality in Nebraska from 1980 to 2014: Time-series analyses by age, sex, race, urbanicity and drought severity.

BACKGROUND: Climate change will increase drought duration and severity in many regions around the world, including the Central Plains of North America. However, studies on drought-related health impacts are still sparse. This study aims to explore the potential associations between drought and all-cause mortality in Nebraska from 1980 to 2014. METHODS: The Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI) were used to define short-, medium- and long-term drought exposures, respectively. We used a Bayesian zero-inflated censored negative binomial (ZICNB) regression model to estimate the overall association between drought and annual mortality first in the total population and second in stratified sub-populations based on age, race, sex, and the urbanicity class of the counties. RESULTS: The main findings indicate that there is a slightly negative association between all-cause mortality and all types of droughts in the total population, though the effect is statistically null. The joint-stratified analysis renders significant results for a few sub-groups. White population aged 25-34 and 45-64 in metro counties and 45-54 in non-metro counties were the population more at risk in Nebraska. No positive associations were observed in any race besides white. Black males aged 20-24 and white females older than 85 showed protective effect against drought mainly in metro counties. We also found that more sub-populations had higher rates of mortality with longer-term droughts compared to shorter-term droughts (12-month vs 1- or 6-month timescales), in both metro and non-metro counties, collectively. CONCLUSION: Our results suggest that mortality in middle aged white population in Nebraska shows a greater association with drought. Moreover, women aged 45-54 were more affected than men in non-metro counties. With a projected increase in the frequency and severity of drought due to climate change, understanding these relationships between drought and human health will better inform drought mitigation planning to reduce potential impacts.

Geospatial Distribution of Age-Adjusted Incidence of the Three Major Types of Pediatric Cancers and Waterborne Agrichemicals in Nebraska.

This study was conducted to examine, at the county level, the relationship between pediatric cancer incidence rate and atrazine and nitrate mean concentrations in surface and groundwater. A negative binomial regression analysis was performed to investigate the association between central nervous system (CNS) tumors, leukemia, lymphoma, and atrazine and nitrate mean concentrations in groundwater. The age-adjusted brain and other CNS cancer incidence was higher than the national average in 63% of the Nebraska counties. After controlling for the counties socio-economic status and nitrate concentrations in groundwater, counties with groundwater atrazine concentrations above 0.0002 µg/L had a higher incidence rate for pediatric cancers (brain and other CNS, leukemia, and lymphoma) compared to counties with groundwater atrazine concentrations in the reference group (0.0000-0.0002 µg/L). Additionally, compared to counties with groundwater nitrate concentrations between 0 and 2 mg/L (reference group), counties with groundwater nitrate concentrations between 2.1 and 5 mg/L (group 2) had a higher incidence rate for pediatric brain and other CNS cancers (IRR = 8.39; 95% CI: 8.24-8.54), leukemia (IRR = 7.35; 95% CI: 7.22-7.48), and lymphoma (IRR = 5.59; CI: 5.48-5.69) after adjusting for atrazine groundwater concentration and the county socio-economic status. While these findings do not indicate a causal relationship, because other contaminants or cancer risk factors have not been accounted for, they suggest that atrazine and nitrate may pose a risk relative to the genesis of pediatric brain and CNS cancers, leukemia, and lymphoma.

Estimating the Burden of Heat-Related Illness Morbidity Attributable to Anthropogenic Climate Change in North Carolina.

Climate change is known to increase the frequency and intensity of hot days (daily maximum temperature ≥30°C), both globally and locally. Exposure to extreme heat is associated with numerous adverse human health outcomes. This study estimated the burden of heat-related illness (HRI) attributable to anthropogenic climate change in North Carolina physiographic divisions (Coastal and Piedmont) during the summer months from 2011 to 2016. Additionally, assuming intermediate and high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, future HRI morbidity burden attributable to climate change was estimated. The association between daily maximum temperature and the rate of HRI was evaluated using the Generalized Additive Model. The rate of HRI assuming natural simulations (i.e., absence of greenhouse gas emissions) and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios were predicted to estimate the HRI attributable to climate change. Over 4 years (2011, 2012, 2014, and 2015), we observed a significant decrease in the rate of HRI assuming natural simulations compared to the observed. About 3 out of 20 HRI visits are attributable to anthropogenic climate change in Coastal (13.40% [IQR: -34.90,95.52]) and Piedmont (16.39% [IQR: -35.18,148.26]) regions. During the future periods, the median rate of HRI was significantly higher (78.65%: Coastal and 65.85%: Piedmont), assuming a higher emission scenario than the intermediate emission scenario. We observed significant associations between anthropogenic climate change and adverse human health outcomes. Our findings indicate the need for evidence-based public health interventions to protect human health from climate-related exposures, like extreme heat, while minimizing greenhouse gas emissions.

Low-Level Groundwater Atrazine in High Atrazine Usage Nebraska Counties: Likely Effects of Excessive Groundwater Abstraction.

Recent studies observed a correlation between estrogen-related cancers and groundwater atrazine in eastern Nebraska counties. However, the mechanisms of human exposure to atrazine are unclear because low groundwater atrazine concentration was observed in counties with high cancer incidence despite having the highest atrazine usage. We studied groundwater atrazine fate in high atrazine usage Nebraska counties. Data were collected from Quality Assessed Agrichemical Contaminant Nebraska Groundwater, Parameter-Elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM), and water use databases. Descriptive statistics and cluster analysis were performed. Domestic wells (59%) were the predominant well type. Groundwater atrazine was affected by well depth. Clusters consisting of wells with low atrazine were characterized by excessive groundwater abstraction, reduced precipitation, high population, discharge areas, and metropolitan counties. Hence, low groundwater atrazine may be due to excessive groundwater abstraction accompanied by atrazine. Human exposure to atrazine in abstracted groundwater may be higher than the estimated amount in groundwater.

Mapping Heat Vulnerability Index Based on Different Urbanization Levels in Nebraska, USA.

Heatwaves cause excess mortality and physiological impacts on humans throughout the world, and climate change will intensify and increase the frequency of heat events. Many adaptation and mitigation studies use spatial distribution of highly vulnerable local populations to inform heat reduction and response plans. However, most available heat vulnerability studies focus on urban areas with high heat intensification by Urban Heat Islands (UHIs). Rural areas encompass different environmental and socioeconomic issues that require alternate analyses of vulnerability. We categorized Nebraska census tracts into four urbanization levels, then conducted factor analyses on each group and captured different patterns of socioeconomic vulnerabilities among resultant Heat Vulnerability Indices (HVIs). While disability is the major component of HVI in two urbanized classes, lower education, and races other than white have higher contributions in HVI for the two rural classes. To account for environmental vulnerability of HVI, we considered different land type combinations for each urban class based on their percentage areas and their differences in heat intensifications. Our results demonstrate different combinations of initial variables in heat vulnerability among urban classes of Nebraska and clustering of high and low heat vulnerable areas within the highest urbanized sections. Less urbanized areas show no spatial clustering of HVI. More studies with separation on urbanization level of residence can give insights into different socioeconomic vulnerability patterns in rural and urban areas, while also identifying changes in environmental variables that better capture heat intensification in rural settings.