RESUMO
Background: Globally, most people die from cardiovascular diseases. We aimed to compare predictive ability of six obesity indices, including body mass index, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, waist-to-height ratio, conicity index, and abdominal volume index, to identify people at risk of fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events, in a cohort study. Methods: We studied 5147 participants in a baseline population-based cohort study conducted in northern Iran. The obesity measures were calculated in enrollment phase (2009-2010), and the cardiovascular events were recorded during a 7-year follow-up phase (2010-2017). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analyses and Cox hazard regression models were applied, considering the obesity measures as predictors, and the 7-year cardiovascular events as outcomes. Multiple Cox models were adjusted by age, prior history of cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney diseases, insulin resistance, diabetes mellitus, dyslipidemia, hypertension, and smoking status. Results: Conicity index showed the highest performance in predicting 7-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events with areas under the ROC curve of 0.77 [95% confidence interval: 0.71-0.82], and 0.63 [0.59-0.68] in men, and 0.80 [0.74-0.87], and 0.65 [0.60-0.71] in women, respectively. In multiple Cox models, the obesity measures had no significant associations with cardiovascular events in women. In men, only waist-to-height ratio was independently associated with 7-year non-fatal cardiovascular events (hazard ratio: 1.19 [95% confidence interval: 1.01-1.38]). Conclusions: Although waist-to-height ratio had an independent association with 7-year non-fatal cardiovascular events in men, conicity index showed the best ability to predict 7-year fatal and non-fatal cardiovascular events in our study.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: There are no consistent results between previous studies for an independent association between non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) events. AIM: To determine if there is an independent association between NAFLD and CVD events. METHODS: In the present study, valid outcome data of 4808 subjects were available for phase 2 of our cohort study. These subjects had been followed up for seven years from phase 1, beginning in 2009-2010 to phase 2 during 2016-2017. Simple and multiple Cox proportional models were used to determine the association between NAFLD in the primary phase of the cohort and subsequent fatal and non-fatal CVD events during follow-up. RESULTS: The incidence of non-fatal CVD events in males with NAFLD was significantly higher (P = 0.004) than in males without NAFLD. A positive association was demonstrated between NAFLD and non-fatal CVD events in males (Hazard ratio = 1.606; 95%CI: 1.166-2.212; P = 0.004) by the simple Cox proportional hazard model, but no independent association was detected between these in the multiple Cox models. CONCLUSION: No independent association was detected between NAFLD and CVD. It is likely that diabetes mellitus and age may be the principle mediators in this regard.