Genome-wide characterization of circulating metabolic biomarkers.

Genome-wide association analyses using high-throughput metabolomics platforms have led to novel insights into the biology of human metabolism1-7. This detailed knowledge of the genetic determinants of systemic metabolism has been pivotal for uncovering how genetic pathways influence biological mechanisms and complex diseases8-11. Here we present a genome-wide association study for 233 circulating metabolic traits quantified by nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy in up to 136,016 participants from 33 cohorts. We identify more than 400 independent loci and assign probable causal genes at two-thirds of these using manual curation of plausible biological candidates. We highlight the importance of sample and participant characteristics that can have significant effects on genetic associations. We use detailed metabolic profiling of lipoprotein- and lipid-associated variants to better characterize how known lipid loci and novel loci affect lipoprotein metabolism at a granular level. We demonstrate the translational utility of comprehensively phenotyped molecular data, characterizing the metabolic associations of intrahepatic cholestasis of pregnancy. Finally, we observe substantial genetic pleiotropy for multiple metabolic pathways and illustrate the importance of careful instrument selection in Mendelian randomization analysis, revealing a putative causal relationship between acetone and hypertension. Our publicly available results provide a foundational resource for the community to examine the role of metabolism across diverse diseases.

Genetically predicted plasma cortisol and common chronic diseases: A Mendelian randomization study.

OBJECTIVE: Cushing's syndrome is characterized by hypercortisolaemia and is frequently accompanied by comorbidities such as type 2 diabetes, hypertension, osteoporosis, depression and schizophrenia. It is unclear whether moderate but lifelong hypercortisolaemia is causally associated with these diseases in the general population. We aimed to address this research gap using a Mendelian randomization approach. METHODS: We used three cortisol-associated genetic variants in the SERPINA6/SERPINA1 region as genetic instruments in a two-sample, inverse-variance-weighted Mendelian randomization analysis. We obtained summary-level statistics for cortisol and disease outcomes from publicly available genetic consortia, and meta-analysed them as appropriate. We conducted a multivariable Mendelian randomization analysis to assess potential mediating effects. RESULTS: A 1 standard deviation higher genetically predicted plasma cortisol was associated with greater odds of hypertension (odds ratio: 1.12; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.05-1.18) as well as higher systolic blood pressure (mean difference [MD]: 0.03 SD change; 95% CI: 0.01-0.05) and diastolic blood pressure (MD: 0.03 SD change; 95% CI: 0.01-0.04). There was no evidence of association with type 2 diabetes, osteoporosis, depression and schizophrenia. The association with hypertension was attenuated upon adjustment for waist circumference, suggesting potential mediation through central obesity. CONCLUSION: There is strong evidence for a causal association between plasma cortisol and greater risk for hypertension, potentially mediated by obesity.

The value of genetic data from 665,460 individuals in managing iron deficiency anaemia and suitability to donate blood.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although the genetic determinants of haemoglobin and ferritin have been widely studied, those of the clinically and globally relevant iron deficiency anaemia (IDA) and deferral due to hypohaemoglobinemia (Hb-deferral) are unclear. In this investigation, we aimed to quantify the value of genetic information in predicting IDA and Hb-deferral. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We analysed genetic data from up to 665,460 participants of the FinnGen, Blood Service Biobank and UK Biobank, and used INTERVAL (N = 39,979) for validation. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWASs) of IDA and Hb-deferral and utilized publicly available genetic associations to compute polygenic scores for IDA, ferritin and Hb. We fitted models to estimate the effect sizes of these polygenic risk scores (PRSs) on IDA and Hb-deferral risk while accounting for the individual's age, sex, weight, height, smoking status and blood donation history. RESULTS: Significant variants in GWASs of IDA and Hb-deferral appear to be a small subset of variants associated with ferritin and Hb. Effect sizes of genetic predictors of IDA and Hb-deferral are similar to those of age and weight which are typically used in blood donor management. A total genetic score for Hb-deferral was estimated for each individual. The odds ratio estimate between first decile against that at ninth decile of total genetic score distribution ranged from 1.4 to 2.2. CONCLUSION: The value of genetic data in predicting IDA or suitability to donate blood appears to be on a practically useful level.

Mild-to-Moderate Kidney Dysfunction and Cardiovascular Disease: Observational and Mendelian Randomization Analyses.

BACKGROUND: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke. METHODS: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank. RESULTS: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2, with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min-1·1.73 m-2. Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD. CONCLUSIONS: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Correction: Lipoprotein signatures of cholesteryl ester transfer protein and HMG-CoA reductase inhibition.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pbio.3000572.].

Lipoprotein signatures of cholesteryl ester transfer protein and HMG-CoA reductase inhibition.

Cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) inhibition reduces vascular event risk, but confusion surrounds its effects on low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol. Here, we clarify associations of genetic inhibition of CETP on detailed lipoprotein measures and compare those to genetic inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-coenzyme A reductase (HMGCR). We used an allele associated with lower CETP expression (rs247617) to mimic CETP inhibition and an allele associated with lower HMGCR expression (rs12916) to mimic the well-known effects of statins for comparison. The study consists of 65,427 participants of European ancestries with detailed lipoprotein subclass profiling from nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy. Genetic associations were scaled to 10% reduction in relative risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). We also examined observational associations of the lipoprotein subclass measures with risk of incident CHD in 3 population-based cohorts totalling 616 incident cases and 13,564 controls during 8-year follow-up. Genetic inhibition of CETP and HMGCR resulted in near-identical associations with LDL cholesterol concentration estimated by the Friedewald equation. Inhibition of HMGCR had relatively consistent associations on lower cholesterol concentrations across all apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins. In contrast, the associations of the inhibition of CETP were stronger on lower remnant and very-low-density lipoprotein (VLDL) cholesterol, but there were no associations on cholesterol concentrations in LDL defined by particle size (diameter 18-26 nm) (-0.02 SD LDL defined by particle size; 95% CI: -0.10 to 0.05 for CETP versus -0.24 SD, 95% CI -0.30 to -0.18 for HMGCR). Inhibition of CETP was strongly associated with lower proportion of triglycerides in all high-density lipoprotein (HDL) particles. In observational analyses, a higher triglyceride composition within HDL subclasses was associated with higher risk of CHD, independently of total cholesterol and triglycerides (strongest hazard ratio per 1 SD higher triglyceride composition in very large HDL 1.35; 95% CI: 1.18-1.54). In conclusion, CETP inhibition does not appear to affect size-specific LDL cholesterol but is likely to lower CHD risk by lowering concentrations of other atherogenic, apolipoprotein B-containing lipoproteins (such as remnant and VLDLs). Inhibition of CETP also lowers triglyceride composition in HDL particles, a phenomenon reflecting combined effects of circulating HDL, triglycerides, and apolipoprotein B-containing particles and is associated with a lower CHD risk in observational analyses. Our results reveal that conventional composite lipid assays may mask heterogeneous effects of emerging lipid-altering therapies.

Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Progression as Surrogate Marker for Cardiovascular Risk: Meta-Analysis of 119 Clinical Trials Involving 100 667 Patients.

BACKGROUND: To quantify the association between effects of interventions on carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) progression and their effects on cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk. METHODS: We systematically collated data from randomized, controlled trials. cIMT was assessed as the mean value at the common-carotid-artery; if unavailable, the maximum value at the common-carotid-artery or other cIMT measures were used. The primary outcome was a combined CVD end point defined as myocardial infarction, stroke, revascularization procedures, or fatal CVD. We estimated intervention effects on cIMT progression and incident CVD for each trial, before relating the 2 using a Bayesian meta-regression approach. RESULTS: We analyzed data of 119 randomized, controlled trials involving 100 667 patients (mean age 62 years, 42% female). Over an average follow-up of 3.7 years, 12 038 patients developed the combined CVD end point. Across all interventions, each 10 µm/y reduction of cIMT progression resulted in a relative risk for CVD of 0.91 (95% Credible Interval, 0.87-0.94), with an additional relative risk for CVD of 0.92 (0.87-0.97) being achieved independent of cIMT progression. Taken together, we estimated that interventions reducing cIMT progression by 10, 20, 30, or 40 µm/y would yield relative risks of 0.84 (0.75-0.93), 0.76 (0.67-0.85), 0.69 (0.59-0.79), or 0.63 (0.52-0.74), respectively. Results were similar when grouping trials by type of intervention, time of conduct, time to ultrasound follow-up, availability of individual-participant data, primary versus secondary prevention trials, type of cIMT measurement, and proportion of female patients. CONCLUSIONS: The extent of intervention effects on cIMT progression predicted the degree of CVD risk reduction. This provides a missing link supporting the usefulness of cIMT progression as a surrogate marker for CVD risk in clinical trials.

Assessing the role of cortisol in cancer: a wide-ranged Mendelian randomisation study.

BACKGROUND: Cortisol's immunosuppressive, obesogenic, and hyperglycaemic effects suggest that it may play a role in cancer development. However, whether cortisol increases cancer risk is not known. We investigated the potential causal association between plasma cortisol and risk of overall and common site-specific cancers using Mendelian randomisation. METHODS: Three genetic variants associated with morning plasma cortisol levels at the genome-wide significance level (P < 5 × 10-8) in the Cortisol Network consortium were used as genetic instruments. Summary-level genome-wide association study data for the cancer outcomes were obtained from large-scale cancer consortia, the UK Biobank, and the FinnGen consortium. Two-sample Mendelian randomisation analyses were performed using the fixed-effects inverse-variance weighted method. Estimates across data sources were combined using meta-analysis. RESULTS: A standard deviation increase in genetically predicted plasma cortisol was associated with increased risk of endometrial cancer (odds ratio 1.50, 95% confidence interval 1.13-1.99; P = 0.005). There was no significant association between genetically predicted plasma cortisol and risk of other common site-specific cancers, including breast, ovarian, prostate, colorectal, lung, or malignant skin cancer, or overall cancer. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that elevated plasma cortisol levels may increase the risk of endometrial cancer but not other cancers. The mechanism by which this occurs remains to be investigated.

Impact of age on sorafenib outcomes in hepatocellular carcinoma: an international cohort study.

BACKGROUND: There is no consensus on the effect of sorafenib dosing on efficacy and toxicity in elderly patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Older patients are often empirically started on low-dose therapy with the aim to avoid toxicities while maximising clinical efficacy. We aimed to verify whether age impacts on overall survival (OS) and whether a reduced starting dose impacts on OS or toxicity experienced by the elderly. METHODS: In an international, multicentre cohort study, outcomes for those aged <75 or ≥75 years were determined while accounting for common prognostic factors and demographic characteristics in univariable and multivariable models. RESULTS: Five thousand five hundred and ninety-eight patients were recruited; 792 (14.1%) were aged ≥75 years. The elderly were more likely to have larger tumours (>7 cm) (39 vs 33%, p < 0.01) with preserved liver function (67 vs 57.7%) (p < 0.01). No difference in the median OS of those aged ≥75 years and <75 was noted (7.3 months vs 7.2 months; HR 1.00 (95% CI 0.93-1.08), p = 0.97). There was no relationship between starting dose of sorafenib 800 mg vs 400 mg/200 mg and OS between those <75 and ≥75 years. The elderly experienced a similar overall incidence of grade 2-4 sorafenib-related toxicity compared to <75 years (63.5 vs 56.7%, p = 0.11). However, the elderly were more likely to discontinue sorafenib due to toxicity (27.0 vs 21.6%, p < 0.01). This did not vary between different starting doses of sorafenib. CONCLUSIONS: Clinical outcomes in the elderly is equivalent to patients aged <75 years, independent of dose of sorafenib prescribed.

Variations in hemoglobin measurement and eligibility criteria across blood donation services are associated with differing low-hemoglobin deferral rates: a BEST Collaborative study.

BACKGROUND: Determination of blood donor hemoglobin (Hb) levels is a pre-requisite to ensure donor safety and blood product quality. We aimed to identify Hb measurement practices across blood donation services and to what extent differences associate with low-Hb deferral rates. METHODS: An online survey was performed among Biomedical Excellence for Safer Transfusion (BEST) Collaborative members, extended with published data. Multivariable negative-binomial regression models were built to estimate adjusted associations of minimum donation intervals, Hb cut-offs (high, ≥13.5 g/dL in men or ≥ 12.5 g/dL in women, vs. lower values), iron monitoring (yes/no), providing or prescribing iron supplementation (yes/no), post-versus pre-donation Hb measurement and geographical location (Asian vs. rest), with low-Hb deferral rates. RESULTS: Data were included from 38 blood services. Low-Hb deferral rates varied from 0.11% to 8.81% among men and 0.84% to 31.85% among women. Services with longer minimum donation intervals had significantly lower deferral rates among both women (rate ratio, RR 0.53, 95%CI 0.33-0.84) and men (RR 0.53, 95%CI 0.31-0.90). In women, iron supplementation was associated with lower Hb deferral rates (RR 0.47, 95%CI 0.23-0.94). Finally, being located in Asia was associated with higher low-Hb deferral rates; RR 9.10 (95%CI 3.89-21.27) for women and 6.76 (95%CI 2.45-18.68) for men. CONCLUSION: Differences in Hb measurement and eligibility criteria, particularly longer donation intervals and iron supplementation in women, are associated with variations in low-Hb deferral rates. These insights could help improve both blood donation service efficiency and donor care.

Initial plans for a large-scale investigation into the chronic health effects of earthquakes in Italy: building on Barbara Pacelli's legacy.

Barbara Pacelli, a young Italian epidemiologist, passed away unexpectedly in September 2019. During her prolific professional life, she gave several scientific contributions to natural disaster epidemiology, particularly in relation to the medium and long-term health effects of earthquakes. In this opinion paper, we reflect on Barbara's legacy and outline potential actions that could arise from her work. Particularly, availability of electronic health records would enable a systematic and large-scale investigation into the long-term health effects of earthquakes in Italy, a country with high seismic risk. This effort would have high societal value as it would likely enable mitigation of substantial morbidity and mortality in areas affected by earthquakes. In this paper, we define scope, objectives, potential data sources, and analysis methods that could be used to systematically assess the chronic health effects of recent earthquakes in Italy. Keywords: earthquakes; chronic diseases; electronic health records; retrospective cohort; case crossover study.

Effects of a prevention program on multiple health-compromising behaviours in adolescence: A cluster randomized controlled trial.

We aimed to assess the effectiveness of 'Paesaggi di Prevenzione', a school-based prevention program delivered by trained teachers and designed to tackle smoking, alcohol misuse, dietary risks, and physical inactivity in adolescence. We evaluated the program between 2010 and 2013 with a two-arm, parallel-group, multicentre cluster randomized controlled trial in which schools were the units of randomization. We collected data on health-compromising behaviours using self-reported measurements of behaviour frequency administered before and after program implementation. We used multivariable mixed-effects logistic regression models to estimate program effects on health-compromising behaviours. The analysis sample included 3410 middle school students and 1651 high school students. Among middle school students, mean age at baseline was 12 years (standard deviation [SD] 0.5 years), 51% were boys, and 41% had high socioeconomic status [SES] (defined as having at least one parent/guardian with university level education). In high school students, mean age at baseline was 14 years (SD 0.7 years), 56% were boys, and 31% had high SES. The program did not have effects on smoking, alcohol misuse, and physical activity. The program had iatrogenic effects in regard to some eating behaviours, resulting in (i) lower odds of fruit consumption among middle-school students (odds ratio [OR] 0.82; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.68-0.99) and (ii) lower odds of having breakfast every day in high-school students at the post-intervention measurement (OR 0.76; 95%CI 0.58-0.99) but not at one-year follow-up (OR 0.94; 95%CI 0.69-1.28). Due to the possibility of unintended effects, we advise against disseminating 'Paesaggi di Prevenzione' in its present form. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ISRCTN00953701.

A School-Based Program to Promote Well-Being in Preadolescents: Results From a Cluster Quasi-Experimental Controlled Study.

Diario della Salute [My Health Diary] is a school-based program designed to enhance the subjective well-being and health of 12- to 13-year-old students. We hypothesized that providing students with the social and emotional skills to fulfill their potential and deal with common developmental tasks of adolescence (e.g., onset of puberty, identity development, increased responsibilities and academic demands) would result in improved well-being and health. The program comprises five standardized interactive lessons concerning common psychosocial and health issues in adolescence, and two narrative booklets addressed to both students and their parents. We evaluated the effectiveness of the program in terms of the students' subjective well-being, aggressive behavior, and health behavior. Using a quasi-experimental study design, schools in the intervention group implemented the full program and those in the comparison group received their regular curriculum. We administered measures of the study's objectives both before and after program implementation. Statistical analyses accounted for within-school clustering, potential socioeconomic and demographic confounding, and pre-implementation levels of these measures. We sampled 62 schools and allocated 2630 students to either an intervention or comparison group. Sociodemographic characteristics and baseline outcomes were balanced across study groups. Unexpectedly, respondents in the intervention group had 0.38 greater mean adjusted score of the WHO/Europe Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children Symptom Checklist instrument than respondents in the comparison group, indicating a reduction in subjective well-being. We did not observe any program effects on aggressive and health behaviors. The apparent reduction in subjective well-being reflected by an increased perception of psychosomatic complaints is suggestive of either increased emotional competence or, potentially, iatrogenic program effects. While greater emotional competence is positively associated with well-being over the course of life, the program in its present form should not be disseminated due to the possibility of adverse unintended effects.

The ALBI grade provides objective hepatic reserve estimation across each BCLC stage of hepatocellular carcinoma.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Overall survival (OS) is a composite clinical endpoint in hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) due to the mutual influence of cirrhosis and active malignancy in dictating patient's mortality. The ALBI grade is a recently described index of liver dysfunction in hepatocellular carcinoma, based solely on albumin and bilirubin levels. Whilst accurate, this score lacks cross-validation, especially in intermediate stage HCC, where OS is highly heterogeneous. METHODS: We evaluated the prognostic accuracy of the ALBI grade in estimating OS in a large, multi-centre study of 2426 patients, including a large proportion of intermediate stage patients treated with chemoembolization (n=1461) accrued from Europe, the United States and Asia. RESULTS: Analysis of survival by primary treatment modality confirmed the ALBI grade as a significant predictor of patient OS after surgical resection (p<0.001), transarterial chemoembolization (p<0.001) and sorafenib (p<0.001). Stratification by Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage confirmed the independent prognostic value of the ALBI across the diverse stages of the disease, geographical regions of origin and time of recruitment to the study (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: In this large, multi-centre retrospective study, the ALBI grade satisfied the criteria for accuracy and reproducibility following statistical validation in Eastern and Western HCC patients, including those treated with chemoembolization. Consideration should be given to the ALBI grade as a stratifying biomarker of liver reserve in routine clinical practice. LAY SUMMARY: Liver failure is a key determinant influencing the natural history of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). In this large multi-centre study we externally validate a novel biomarker of liver functional reserve, the ALBI grade, across all the stages of HCC.

[Medium- and long-term health effects of the L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy, 2009) and of other earthquakes in high-income Countries: a systematic review]. / Effetti sulla salute a medio e lungo termine del terremoto dell'Aquila del 2009 e di altri terremoti avvenuti in Paesi ad alto reddito: una revisione sistematica della letteratura.

OBJECTIVES: to compare the methodological characteristics of the studies investigating the middle- and long-term health effects of the L'Aquila earthquake with the features of studies conducted after other earthquakes occurred in highincome Countries. DESIGN: a systematic comparison between the studies which evaluated the health effects of the L'Aquila earthquake (Central Italy, 6th April 2009) and those conducted after other earthquakes occurred in comparable settings. METHODS: Medline, Scopus, and 6 sources of grey literature were systematically searched. Inclusion criteria comprised measurement of health outcomes at least one month after the earthquake, investigation of earthquakes occurred in high-income Countries, and presence of at least one temporal or geographical control group. RESULTS: out of 2,976 titles, 13 studies regarding the L'Aquila earthquake and 51 studies concerning other earthquakes were included. The L'Aquila and the Kobe/Hanshin- Awaji (Japan, 17th January 1995) earthquakes were the most investigated. Studies on the L'Aquila earthquake had a median sample size of 1,240 subjects, a median duration of 24 months, and used most frequently a cross sectional design (7/13). Studies on other earthquakes had a median sample size of 320 subjects, a median duration of 15 months, and used most frequently a time series design (19/51). CONCLUSIONS: the L'Aquila studies often focussed on mental health, while the earthquake effects on mortality, cardiovascular outcomes, and health systems were less frequently evaluated. A more intensive use of routine data could benefit future epidemiological surveillance in the aftermath of earthquakes.

[Effectiveness of school-based interventions to prevent traffic accidents: an overview of secondary literature]. / Efficacia degli interventi scolastici per la prevenzione degli incidenti stradali: una overview della letteratura secondaria.

INTRODUZIONE: gli incidenti stradali sono l'ottava causa di morte al mondo e la prima tra i giovani di 15-29 anni. In Italia il Piano nazionale sicurezza stradale raccomanda l'educazione scolastica per la prevenzione degli incidenti stradali; ad oggi non esistono documenti che raccolgano evidenze di efficacia sugli interventi educativi stradali e le rapportino al contesto italiano. OBIETTIVI: riassumere e discutere ciò che è noto in letteratura riguardo agli interventi scolastici per la prevenzione degli incidenti stradali. METODI: sono state ricercate linee guida e revisioni sistematiche usando i seguenti criteri di inclusione: popolazione di età inferiore ai 25 anni di entrambi i sessi; interventi scolastici di educazione stradale; effetti su indicatori primari di esito come riduzione degli incidenti stradali, astinenza dalla guida sotto l'effetto di alcol e dall'accettare passaggi in macchina da guidatori che sono sotto l'effetto di alcol; effetti su indicatori secondari di esito come conoscenze e competenze sui comportamenti di guida sicura. RISULTATI: sono state identificate due revisioni sistematiche. L'educazione stradale nelle scuole non mostra evidenza di efficacia (rischio relativo 1,03; IC95% 0,98-1,08) nel ridurre gli incidenti. Programmi scolastici più specifici mostrano risultati solo in parte convincenti per l'adozione di comportamenti sicuri come l'astinenza dal guidare sotto l'effetto di alcol e dall'accettare passaggi in macchina da guidatori che sono sotto l'effetto di alcol. DISCUSSIONE: le revisioni incluse non hanno trovato programmi efficaci nella riduzione degli incidenti stradali o dei fattori che possano determinarli. Nell'attesa di studi più recenti, appare opportuno promuovere l'implementazione di interventi misti, scolastici e di comunità, che hanno mostrato maggiori prove di efficacia.

Validation of the hepatoma arterial embolization prognostic score in European and Asian populations and proposed modification.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Transarterial chemoembolization (TACE) is used to treat hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC), but it is a challenge to predict patient survival. The hepatic arterial embolization prognostic (HAP) score has been shown to predict which patients will have shorter survival times and should not undergo TACE. We aimed to validate this scoring system in a prospective study of patients in Europe and Asia. METHODS: We evaluated the prognostic accuracy of the HAP score in estimating overall survival (OS) of 126 patients with HCC who received TACE in the United Kingdom or Italy (training set) from 2001 through 2013. We also analyzed data from 723 patients treated in Korea and Japan (validation set), including 79 with newly diagnosed HCC, who underwent TACE in Korea or Japan from 2004 through 2013. Response to TACE was determined based on computed tomography analysis. OS was calculated from the time of the first TACE until death or the last follow-up evaluation. RESULTS: OS was associated with hypoalbuminemia, α-fetoprotein level greater than 400 ng/mL, and tumor size greater than 7 cm at diagnosis (P < .01), but not a bilirubin level greater than 17 umol/L (P > .05), in both data sets. The lack of association between OS and bilirubin level was confirmed using receiver operating characteristic analysis. We developed a modified version of the HAP score, based on the level of albumin and α-fetoprotein and tumor size, which predicted OS with increased accuracy in the training and validation cohorts. CONCLUSIONS: In a multicenter validation study, we developed a modified version of the HAP that predicts survival of patients with HCC treated with TACE in Europe and Asia. This system might be used to identify patients with HCC most likely to benefit from TACE in clinical practice.

A prevention program for multiple health-compromising behaviors in adolescence: baseline results from a cluster randomized controlled trial.

OBJECTIVE: To describe the design and present the baseline findings of the evaluation study of 'Paesaggi di Prevenzione', a school-based prevention program tackling smoking, alcohol misuse, dietary risks, and physical inactivity in 12- to 14-year-olds. METHODS: The program was implemented from January 2011 to April 2012 in Emilia-Romagna, Italy, and comprised classroom activities and school-wide policies. A two-arm cluster randomized controlled trial was designed. Schools were the units of randomization and were matched by socioeconomic status, size, and type. RESULTS: Data from 4700 middle school students and 2952 high school students were collected anonymously from October to December 2010. Past-30-day smoking prevalence was 1.9% among middle school students and 20.8% among high school students. Past-30-day prevalence of alcohol intoxication was 2.2% among middle school students and 11.4% among high school students. A total of 39.7% of middle school students and 48.0% of high school students drank sugar-sweetened beverages four or more times per week; 7.5% of middle school students and 7.1% of high school students had intense physical activity every day. CONCLUSIONS: This study seems adequately powered and baseline variables appear evenly distributed between study groups. Findings are in line with those of the WHO Health Behaviour in School-Aged Children study.