Performance of GAP and ILD-GAP models in predicting lung transplant or death in interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the ability of two risk prediction models in interstitial lung disease (ILD) to predict death or lung transplantation in a cohort of patients with interstitial pneumonia with autoimmune features (IPAF). METHODS: We performed a retrospective cohort study of adults with IPAF at an academic medical center. The primary outcome was a composite of lung transplantation or death. We applied the patient data to the previously described GAP and ILD-GAP models to determine the ability of these models to predict the composite outcome. Model discrimination was assessed using the c-index, and model calibration was determined by comparing the incidence ratios of observed versus expected deaths. RESULTS: Ninety-four patients with IPAF were included. Mean (standard deviation) age was 58 (13.5) years and the majority were female (62%). The majority met serologic and morphologic criteria for IPAF (94% and 91%, respectively). The GAP model had a c-index of 0.664 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.547-0.781), while the ILD-GAP model had a c-index of 0.569 (95% CI 0.440-0.697). In those with GAP stage 1 or GAP stage 2 disease, calibration of the GAP model was satisfactory at 2 and 3 years for the cumulative end point of lung transplantation or death. CONCLUSION: In patients with IPAF, the GAP model performed well as a predictor of lung transplantation or death at 2 years and 3 years from ILD diagnosis in patients with GAP stage 1 and GAP stage 2 disease.

Metacommunity assembly and sorting in newly formed lake communities.

new habitats are created, community assembly may follow independent trajectories, since the relative importance of dispersal limitation, priority effects, species interactions, and environmental gradients can vary as assembly proceeds. Unfortunately, tracking community colonization and composition across decades is challenging. We compiled a multiyear community composition data set and reconstructed past communities with remains from sediment cores to investigate cladoceran assembly dynamics in six older (1920s) and two more recently formed (1950s) lakes. We found that current communities cluster along a gradient of thermal stratification that is known to influence predation intensity. Assembling communities showed evidence for a greater influence of species sorting and a reduced influence of spatial structure since the first colonizations. However, lake community trajectories varied considerably, reflecting different colonization sequences among lakes. In the older lakes, small-bodied cladocerans often arrived much earlier than large-bodied cladocerans, while the two younger lakes were colonized much more rapidly, and one was quickly dominated by a large-bodied species. Thus, by combining contemporary community data with paleoecological records, we show that assembly history influences natural community structure for decades while patterns of ecological sorting develop.

Does local adaptation to resources explain genetic differentiation among Daphnia populations?

Substantial genetic differentiation is frequently observed among populations of cyclically parthenogenetic zooplankton despite their high dispersal capabilities and potential for gene flow. Local adaptation has been invoked to explain population genetic differentiation despite high dispersal, but several neutral models that account for basic life history features also predict high genetic differentiation. Here, we study genetic differentiation among four populations of Daphnia pulex in east central Illinois. As with other studies of Daphnia, we demonstrate substantial population genetic differentiation despite close geographic proximity (<50 km; mean theta = 0.22). However, we explicitly tested and failed to find evidence for, the hypothesis that local adaptation to food resources occurs in these populations. Recognizing that local adaptation can occur in traits unrelated to resources, we estimated contemporary migration rates (m) and tested for admixture to evaluate the hypothesis that observed genetic differentiation is consistent with local adaptation to other untested ecological factors. Using Bayesian assignment methods, we detected migrants in three of the four study populations including substantial evidence for successful reproduction by immigrants in one pond, allowing us to reject the hypothesis that local adaptation limits gene flow for at least this population. Thus, we suggest that local adaptation does not explain genetic differentiation among these Daphnia populations and that other factors related to extinction/colonization dynamics, a long approach to equilibrium F(ST) or substantial genetic drift due to a low number of individuals hatching from the egg bank each season may explain genetic differentiation.

Measuring and modeling dispersal of adult zooplankton.

Habitat fragmentation poses an inherent problem for metacommunity dynamics, as dispersal among communities is hindered by increasing isolation and the loss of patches. Wetlands are one such system that have undergone excessive destruction and fragmentation in recent years. Zooplankton within these communities have historically been considered frequent and widespread dispersers, but direct, quantitative measures of zooplankton dispersal are rare. In this study, I performed two experiments to quantify zooplankton dispersal and to identify the primary dispersal vectors. I first set up an array of traps at 10, 30, 60, 120 and 180 m around an isolated pond to collect dispersing individuals. Nearly 1,500 adult zooplankton were captured in traps up to 180 m from the pond, with approximately 60% of dispersers being captured in traps at 10 m from the pond. A second experiment using open and animal-excluded traps suggested that large animals were the primary dispersal vector for these zooplankton. Using a subset of these data, I fit four models to describe the shape and magnitude of adult cladoceran dispersal at this site. All models showed the majority of cladocerans were deposited very close to the source pond, with three models suggesting that the trapping area encompassed 67% or more of the dispersal distances. These results suggest that adult zooplankton movement among ponds may be significant in areas where aquatic habitats are plentiful. Yet, in recent years climate change and anthropogenic disturbances have reduced the number and size of aquatic habitats in many regions of the world, likely curtailing effective transport of individuals in many cases. As a result, fragmented zooplankton metacommunities may experience increased dispersal limitation, stronger priority effects, higher levels of inbreeding and selection against traits engendering high dispersability.