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BACKGROUND: The Aotearoa/New Zealand Government is aiming to end the tobacco epidemic and markedly reduce Maori:non-Maori health inequalities by legislating: (1) denicotinisation of retail tobacco, (2) 95% reduction in retail outlets and (c) a tobacco free-generation whereby people born after 2005 are unable to legally purchase tobacco. This paper estimates future smoking prevalence, mortality inequality and health-adjusted life year (HALY) impacts of these strategies. METHODS: We used a Markov model to estimate future yearly smoking and vaping prevalence, linked to a proportional multistate life table model to estimate future mortality and HALYs. RESULTS: The combined package of strategies (plus media promotion) reduced adult smoking prevalence from 31.8% in 2022 to 7.3% in 2025 for Maori, and 11.8% to 2.7% for non-Maori. The 5% smoking prevalence target was forecast to be achieved in 2026 and 2027 for Maori males and females, respectively.The HALY gains for the combined package over the population's remaining lifespan were estimated to be 594 000 (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 443 000 to 738 000; 3% discount rate). Denicotinisation alone achieved 97% of these HALYs, the retail strategy 19% and tobacco-free generation 12%.By 2040, the combined package was forcat to reduce the gap in Maori:non-Maori all-cause mortality rates for people 45+ years old by 22.9% (95% UI: 19.9% to 26.2%) for females and 9.6% (8.4% to 11.0%) for males. CONCLUSION: A tobacco endgame strategy, especially denicotinisation, could deliver large health benefits and dramatically reduce health inequities between Maori and non-Maori in Aotearoa/New Zealand.
RESUMO
Background: Identifying optimal COVID-19 policies is challenging. For Victoria, Australia (6.6 million people), we evaluated 104 policy packages (two levels of stringency of public health and social measures [PHSMs], by two levels each of mask-wearing and respirator provision during large outbreaks, by 13 vaccination schedules) for nine future SARS-CoV-2 variant scenarios. Methods: We used an agent-based model to estimate morbidity, mortality, and costs over 12 months from October 2022 for each scenario. The 104 policies (each averaged over the nine future variant scenarios) were ranked based on four evenly weighted criteria: cost-effectiveness from (a) health system only and (b) health system plus GDP perspectives, (c) deaths and (d) days exceeding hospital occupancy thresholds. Findings: More compared to less stringent PHSMs reduced cumulative infections, hospitalisations and deaths but also increased time in stage ≥3 PHSMs. Any further vaccination from October 2022 decreased hospitalisations and deaths by 12% and 27% respectively compared to no further vaccination and was usually a cost-saving intervention from a health expenditure plus GDP perspective. High versus low vaccine coverage decreased deaths by 15% and reduced time in stage ≥3 PHSMs by 20%. The modelled mask policies had modest impacts on morbidity, mortality, and health system pressure. The highest-ranking policy combination was more stringent PHSMs, two further vaccine doses (an Omicron-targeted vaccine followed by a multivalent vaccine) for ≥30-year-olds with high uptake, and promotion of increased mask wearing (but not Government provision of respirators). Interpretation: Ongoing vaccination and PHSMs continue to be key components of the COVID-19 pandemic response. Integrated epidemiologic and economic modelling, as exemplified in this paper, can be rapidly updated and used in pandemic decision making. Funding: Anonymous donation, University of Melbourne funding.
RESUMO
BACKGROUND: Cold indoor temperature (<18 °C) is associated with hypertension-related and respiratory disease, depression, and anxiety. We estimate total health, health expenditure and income impacts of permanently lifting the temperature in living areas of the home to 18 °C in cold homes in South-eastern Australia (N = 17 million). METHODS: A proportional multistate lifetable model was used to estimate health adjusted life years (HALYs), health expenditure and income earnings, over the remainder of the lifespan of the population alive in 2021 (3% discount rate). Multiple data were integrated including the prevalence of cold housing (5.87%; mean temperature 15 °C), the effect of temperature to hypertension-related, respiratory disease, depression and anxiety. FINDINGS: Eradicating cold housing was predicted to lead to 89,600 (95% UI 47,700 to 177,000) lifetime HALYs gained over the population's remaining lifespan, nearly half of which occurred from 2021 to 2040. Respiratory disease (32.4%) and mental illness (60.6%) made large contributions to HALYs gained, but also had large uncertainty (95% UI 30.0%-42.9% and 45.1%-64.6%, respectively) due to uncertain estimates of their magnitude of causal association with cold housing. Health gains per capita were 6.1 times greater (95% UI 4.7 to 8.1) among the most compared to least deprived quintile. From 2021 to 2040, health expenditure decreased by AUD$0.87 billion (0.35-1.98) and income earnings increased by AUD$4.35 billion (1.89-9.81). INTERPRETATION: Eliminating cold housing would lead to substantial health gains, reductions in health inequalities, savings in health expenditure, and productivity gains. Next steps require research to reduce uncertainty about the magnitude of causal associations of cold with mental and respiratory health.