External validation of prognostic models predicting pre-eclampsia: individual participant data meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Pre-eclampsia is a leading cause of maternal and perinatal mortality and morbidity. Early identification of women at risk during pregnancy is required to plan management. Although there are many published prediction models for pre-eclampsia, few have been validated in external data. Our objective was to externally validate published prediction models for pre-eclampsia using individual participant data (IPD) from UK studies, to evaluate whether any of the models can accurately predict the condition when used within the UK healthcare setting. METHODS: IPD from 11 UK cohort studies (217,415 pregnant women) within the International Prediction of Pregnancy Complications (IPPIC) pre-eclampsia network contributed to external validation of published prediction models, identified by systematic review. Cohorts that measured all predictor variables in at least one of the identified models and reported pre-eclampsia as an outcome were included for validation. We reported the model predictive performance as discrimination (C-statistic), calibration (calibration plots, calibration slope, calibration-in-the-large), and net benefit. Performance measures were estimated separately in each available study and then, where possible, combined across studies in a random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS: Of 131 published models, 67 provided the full model equation and 24 could be validated in 11 UK cohorts. Most of the models showed modest discrimination with summary C-statistics between 0.6 and 0.7. The calibration of the predicted compared to observed risk was generally poor for most models with observed calibration slopes less than 1, indicating that predictions were generally too extreme, although confidence intervals were wide. There was large between-study heterogeneity in each model's calibration-in-the-large, suggesting poor calibration of the predicted overall risk across populations. In a subset of models, the net benefit of using the models to inform clinical decisions appeared small and limited to probability thresholds between 5 and 7%. CONCLUSIONS: The evaluated models had modest predictive performance, with key limitations such as poor calibration (likely due to overfitting in the original development datasets), substantial heterogeneity, and small net benefit across settings. The evidence to support the use of these prediction models for pre-eclampsia in clinical decision-making is limited. Any models that we could not validate should be examined in terms of their predictive performance, net benefit, and heterogeneity across multiple UK settings before consideration for use in practice. TRIAL REGISTRATION: PROSPERO ID: CRD42015029349 .

Early fetal ultrasound screening for major congenital heart defects without Doppler.

OBJECTIVE: Congenital heart defects are the most common major structural fetal abnormalities. Color flow mapping has played a dominant role in the detection of abnormalities during the first trimester, regardless of the International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology warning on the use of Doppler during early pregnancy. The aim of our study was to investigate the use of transvaginal two-dimensional sonography without Doppler for assessing the four-chamber view and the outflow tract view of fetuses at 11-13 weeks of gestation for cardiac screening of major congenital heart defects. STUDY DESIGN: This was a prospective observational study conducted in the Fetal Medicine Unit of Cabueñes University Hospital, between May 2014 and August 2015. Only low risk-pregnancies were studied. All ultrasonographic examinations were performed by two experienced sonographers in maternal-fetal medicine. The combination of high-frequency transvaginal (nine MHz) and transabdominal (six MHz) ultrasonography transducers were used. An early cardiac screening was performed in 97% of cases. Statistical analysis was carried out using successive multivariate logistic regression models in order to investigate the effect of crown-rump length and body mass index on the probability of visualizing the four-chamber view and/or the outflow tract view. RESULTS: 663 low-risk pregnant women were included. Regarding the transvaginal approach, neither the crown-rump length nor the body mass index had a statistically significant relationship on the probability of visualization of the four-chamber view and outflow tract view. For the transabdominal approach, the crown-rump length and the body mass index presented a statistically significant effect on the visualization of the four-chamber view and the outflow tract view. Using the transvaginal approach: the success rate of performing a four-chamber view was 89.4% and 82.4% for the outflow tract view. Using the transabdominal approach: the success rate of performing a four-chamber view was 77.8% and 61.5% for the outflow tract view. Four major congenital heart defects were diagnosed, and the prenatal ultrasonagraphic diagnosis was confirmed for all cases. CONCLUSIONS: Routine first-trimester ultrasonagraphy without Doppler, when performed by experienced sonographers, can effectively identify major congenital heart defects. Additional multicenter well designed studies should clarify the feasibility of this approach.