Perinatal outcome of monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancy complicated by selective intrauterine growth restriction according to umbilical artery Doppler flow pattern: single-center study using strict fetal surveillance protocol.

OBJECTIVE: To determine the perinatal outcome of monochorionic diamniotic (MCDA) twin pregnancies complicated by selective intrauterine growth restriction (sIUGR), which were classified according to the umbilical artery (UA) Doppler flow pattern of the IUGR twin. METHODS: This was a retrospective cohort study of all MCDA twin pregnancies diagnosed with sIUGR and managed at a single tertiary referral center between 2012 and 2018. Cases were classified according to the UA Doppler flow pattern of the IUGR twin as Type I (positive end-diastolic flow), Type II (persistently absent/reversed end-diastolic flow) or Type III (intermittently absent/reversed end-diastolic flow). Patients with Type-II or -III sIUGR were hospitalized at 26-28 weeks of gestation for increased fetal surveillance. Perinatal and immediate and long-term neurodevelopmental outcomes were stratified according to the UA Doppler flow pattern at the final examination. Intact survival rate was defined as the number of infants surviving without neurological impairment, divided by the total number of fetuses. Composite adverse outcome, defined as any mortality, presence of severe brain lesions on postnatal transcranial ultrasound or severe neurological morbidity, was also assessed. RESULTS: Of 88 MCDA twin pregnancies with sIUGR included in the study, 28 underwent selective termination by cord occlusion using radiofrequency ablation, resulting in a perinatal survival rate of 89.3% and a median gestational age (GA) at delivery of 33.8 (interquartile range (IQR), 28.8-38.2) weeks for the large cotwin. Expectant management was employed in 60 cases. In 26 (43.3%) cases in the expectant-management group, the classification according to the UA Doppler flow pattern changed during gestation, resulting in 26 (43.3%) cases of Type-I, 22 (36.7%) cases of Type-II and 12 (20.0%) cases of Type-III sIUGR at the final examination. The perinatal survival rate of both twins with sIUGR Types I, II and III at the final examination was 100%, 81.8% and 75.0%, respectively (P = 0.04). Two cases of double fetal death and one case of single fetal death occurred 1-4 weeks after the Doppler pattern had changed from Type I or Type II to Type III. The median GA at delivery was 34.8 (IQR, 33.1-35.7) weeks in Type I, 30.3 (IQR, 28.6-32.1) weeks in Type II and 32.0 (IQR, 31.3-32.6) weeks in Type III (P < 0.01). The total intact survival rate was 100% for Type I, 77.3% for Type II and 75.0% for Type III (P < 0.001). Multivariate analysis demonstrated that early GA at diagnosis (odds ratio (OR), 0.83 (95% CI, 0.69-0.99); P = 0.04) and the presence of Type II or III vs Type I at the last examination (OR, 13.16 (95% CI, 1.53-113.32); P = 0.02) were associated with preterm birth < 32 weeks' gestation. Early GA at diagnosis was also associated with the composite adverse outcome (OR, 0.60 (95% CI, 0.36-0.99); P = 0.04). CONCLUSIONS: The classification system of MCDA pregnancy complicated by sIUGR, according to the UA Doppler flow pattern of the IUGR twin at final examination, is associated with perinatal outcome. Importantly, the UA Doppler flow pattern can change during gestation, which has an impact on the risk of fetal death. Nevertheless, under strict fetal surveillance, the perinatal outcome of these pregnancies is favorable. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Outcome of monochorionic twin pregnancy complicated by Type-III selective intrauterine growth restriction.

OBJECTIVE: Type-III selective intrauterine growth restriction (sIUGR) is associated with a high and unpredictable risk of fetal death and fetal brain injury. The objective of this study was to describe the prospective risk of fetal death and the risk of adverse neonatal outcome in a cohort of twin pregnancies complicated by Type-III sIUGR and treated according to up-to-date guidelines. METHODS: We reviewed retrospectively all monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies complicated by Type-III sIUGR managed at nine fetal centers over a 12-year period. Higher-order multiple gestations and pregnancies with major fetal anomalies or other monochorionicity-related complications at initial presentation were excluded. Data on fetal and neonatal outcomes were collected and management strategies reviewed. Composite adverse neonatal outcome was defined as neonatal death, invasive ventilation beyond the resuscitation period, culture-proven sepsis, necrotizing enterocolitis requiring treatment, intraventricular hemorrhage Grade > I, retinopathy of prematurity Stage > II or cystic periventricular leukomalacia. The prospective risk of intrauterine death (IUD) and the risk of neonatal complications according to gestational age were evaluated. RESULTS: We collected data on 328 pregnancies (656 fetuses). After exclusion of pregnancies that underwent selective reduction (n = 18 (5.5%)), there were 51/620 (8.2%) non-iatrogenic IUDs in 35/310 (11.3%) pregnancies. Single IUD occurred in 19/328 (5.8%) pregnancies and double IUD in 16/328 (4.9%). The prospective risk of non-iatrogenic IUD per fetus declined from 8.1% (95% CI, 5.95-10.26%) at 16 weeks, to less than 2% (95% CI, 0.59-2.79%) after 28.4 weeks and to less than 1% (95% CI, -0.30 to 1.89%) beyond 32.6 weeks. In otherwise uncomplicated pregnancies with Type-III sIUGR, delivery was generally planned at 32 weeks, at which time the risk of composite adverse neonatal outcome was 29.0% (31/107 neonates). In twin pregnancies that continued to 34 weeks, there was a very low risk of IUD (0.7%) and a low risk of composite adverse neonatal outcome (11%). CONCLUSIONS: In this cohort of twin pregnancies complicated by Type-III sIUGR and treated at several tertiary fetal centers, the risk of fetal death was lower than that reported previously. Further efforts should be directed at identifying predictors of fetal death and optimal antenatal surveillance strategies to select a cohort of pregnancies that can continue safely beyond 33 weeks' gestation. © 2020 International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.

Development and validation of a machine-learning model for prediction of shoulder dystocia.

OBJECTIVES: To develop a machine-learning (ML) model for prediction of shoulder dystocia (ShD) and to externally validate the model's predictive accuracy and potential clinical efficacy in optimizing the use of Cesarean delivery in the context of suspected macrosomia. METHODS: We used electronic health records (EHR) from the Sheba Medical Center in Israel to develop the model (derivation cohort) and EHR from the University of California San Francisco Medical Center to validate the model's accuracy and clinical efficacy (validation cohort). Subsequent to application of inclusion and exclusion criteria, the derivation cohort included 686 singleton vaginal deliveries, of which 131 were complicated by ShD, and the validation cohort included 2584 deliveries, of which 31 were complicated by ShD. For each of these deliveries, we collected maternal and neonatal delivery outcomes coupled with maternal demographics, obstetric clinical data and sonographic fetal biometry. Biometric measurements and their derived estimated fetal weight were adjusted (aEFW) according to gestational age at delivery. A ML pipeline was utilized to develop the model. RESULTS: In the derivation cohort, the ML model provided significantly better prediction than did the current clinical paradigm based on fetal weight and maternal diabetes: using nested cross-validation, the area under the receiver-operating-characteristics curve (AUC) of the model was 0.793 ± 0.041, outperforming aEFW combined with diabetes (AUC = 0.745 ± 0.044, P = 1e-16 ). The following risk modifiers had a positive beta that was > 0.02, i.e. they increased the risk of ShD: aEFW (beta = 0.164), pregestational diabetes (beta = 0.047), prior ShD (beta = 0.04), female fetal sex (beta = 0.04) and adjusted abdominal circumference (beta = 0.03). The following risk modifiers had a negative beta that was < -0.02, i.e. they were protective of ShD: adjusted biparietal diameter (beta = -0.08) and maternal height (beta = -0.03). In the validation cohort, the model outperformed aEFW combined with diabetes (AUC = 0.866 vs 0.784, P = 0.00007). Additionally, in the validation cohort, among the subgroup of 273 women carrying a fetus with aEFW ≥ 4000 g, the aEFW had no predictive power (AUC = 0.548), and the model performed significantly better (0.775, P = 0.0002). A risk-score threshold of 0.5 stratified 42.9% of deliveries to the high-risk group, which included 90.9% of ShD cases and all cases accompanied by maternal or newborn complications. A more specific threshold of 0.7 stratified only 27.5% of the deliveries to the high-risk group, which included 63.6% of ShD cases and all those accompanied by newborn complications. CONCLUSION: We developed a ML model for prediction of ShD and, in a different cohort, externally validated its performance. The model predicted ShD better than did estimated fetal weight either alone or combined with maternal diabetes, and was able to stratify the risk of ShD and neonatal injury in the context of suspected macrosomia. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.