Variability in the analysis of a single neuroimaging dataset by many teams.

Data analysis workflows in many scientific domains have become increasingly complex and flexible. Here we assess the effect of this flexibility on the results of functional magnetic resonance imaging by asking 70 independent teams to analyse the same dataset, testing the same 9 ex-ante hypotheses1. The flexibility of analytical approaches is exemplified by the fact that no two teams chose identical workflows to analyse the data. This flexibility resulted in sizeable variation in the results of hypothesis tests, even for teams whose statistical maps were highly correlated at intermediate stages of the analysis pipeline. Variation in reported results was related to several aspects of analysis methodology. Notably, a meta-analytical approach that aggregated information across teams yielded a significant consensus in activated regions. Furthermore, prediction markets of researchers in the field revealed an overestimation of the likelihood of significant findings, even by researchers with direct knowledge of the dataset2-5. Our findings show that analytical flexibility can have substantial effects on scientific conclusions, and identify factors that may be related to variability in the analysis of functional magnetic resonance imaging. The results emphasize the importance of validating and sharing complex analysis workflows, and demonstrate the need for performing and reporting multiple analyses of the same data. Potential approaches that could be used to mitigate issues related to analytical variability are discussed.

Dissociation between Private and Social Counterfactual Value Signals Following Ventromedial Prefrontal Cortex Damage.

Individuals learn by comparing the outcome of chosen and unchosen actions. A negative counterfactual value signal is generated when this comparison is unfavorable. This can happen in private as well as in social settings-where the foregone outcome results from the choice of another person. We hypothesized that, despite sharing similar features such as supporting learning, these two counterfactual signals might implicate distinct brain networks. We conducted a neuropsychological study on the role of private and social counterfactual value signals in risky decision-making. Patients with lesions in the ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC), lesion controls, and healthy controls repeatedly chose between lotteries. In private trials, participants could observe the outcomes of their choices and the outcomes of the unselected lotteries. In social trials, participants could also see the other player's choices and outcome. At the time of outcome, vmPFC patients were insensitive to private counterfactual value signals, whereas their responses to social comparison were similar to those of control participants. At the time of choice, intact vmPFC was necessary to integrate counterfactual signals in decisions, although amelioration was observed during the course of the task, possibly driven by social trials. We conclude that if the vmPFC is critical in processing private counterfactual signals and in integrating those signals in decision-making, then distinct brain areas might support the processing of social counterfactual signals.

Medial prefrontal cortex and striatum mediate the influence of social comparison on the decision process.

We compared private and social decision making to investigate the neural underpinnings of the effect of social comparison on risky choices. We measured brain activity using functional MRI while participants chose between two lotteries: in the private condition, they observed the outcome of the unchosen lottery, and in the social condition, the outcome of the lottery chosen by another person. The striatum, a reward-related brain structure, showed higher activity when participants won more than their counterpart (social gains) compared with winning in isolation and lower activity when they won less than their counterpart (social loss) compared with private loss. The medial prefrontal cortex, implicated in social reasoning, was more activated by social gains than all other events. Sensitivity to social gains influenced both brain activity and behavior during subsequent choices. Specifically, striatal activity associated with social gains predicted medial prefrontal cortex activity during social choices, and experienced social gains induced more risky and competitive behavior in later trials. These results show that interplay between reward and social reasoning networks mediates the influence of social comparison on the decision process.

Adolescents' heightened risk-seeking in a probabilistic gambling task.

This study investigated adolescent males' decision-making under risk, and the emotional response to decision outcomes, using a probabilistic gambling task designed to evoke counterfactually mediated emotions (relief and regret). Participants were 20 adolescents (aged 9-11), 26 young adolescents (aged 12-15), 20 mid-adolescents (aged 15-18) and 17 adults (aged 25-35). All were male. The ability to maximize expected value improved with age. However, there was an inverted U-shaped developmental pattern for risk-seeking. The age at which risk-taking was highest was 14.38 years. Although emotion ratings overall did not differ across age, there was an increase between childhood and young adolescence in the strength of counterfactually mediated emotions (relief and regret) reported after receiving feedback about the gamble outcome. We suggest that continuing development of the emotional response to outcomes may be a factor contributing to adolescents' risky behaviour.

The Art of Influencing Consumer Choices: A Reflection on Recent Advances in Decision Neuroscience.

In recent years, our knowledge concerning the neurobiology of choice has increased tremendously. Research in the field of decision-making has identified important brain mechanisms by which a representation of the subjective value of an option is built based on previous experience, retrieved and compared to that of other available options in order to make a choice. One body of research, in particular, has focused on simple value-based choices (e.g., choices between two types of fruits) to study situations very similar to our daily life decisions as consumers. The use of neuroimaging techniques has deepened and refined our knowledge of decision processes. Additionally, computational approaches have helped identifying and describing the mechanisms underlying newly found components of the decisional process. They provide mechanistic explanations for diverse biases that can drive decision makers away from their own preferences or from rational choices. It is now clear that both attentional and affective factors can exert robust effects on an individual's decisions. Because these factors can be manipulated externally, academic research and theories are of great interest to the marketing industry. This approach is becoming increasingly effective in manipulating consumer behavior and has the potential to become even more effective in the future. Another line of research has revealed differences in the decision-making neural circuitry that underlie sub-optimal choice behavior, rendering some individuals particularly vulnerable to marketing strategies. As neuroscientists, we wonder whether relevant institutions should direct their efforts toward raising citizens' awareness, demanding more transparency on marketing applications and regulate the most pervasive communication techniques in marketing, in view of their current use and of recent research progress.

Different Attentional Patterns for Regret and Disappointment: An Eye-tracking Study.

The unfavorable comparison between the obtained and expected outcomes of our choices may elicit disappointment. When the comparison is made with the outcome of alternative actions, emotions like regret can serve as a learning signal. Previous work showed that both anticipated disappointment and regret influence decisions. In addition, experienced regret is associated with higher emotional responses than disappointment. Yet it is not clear whether this amplification is due to additive effects of disappointment and regret when the outcomes of alternative actions are available, or whether it reflects the learning feature of regret signals. In this perspective, we used eye-tracking to measure the visual pattern of information acquisition in a probabilistic lottery task. In the partial feedback condition, only the outcome of the chosen lottery was revealed, while in the complete feedback condition, participants could compare their outcome with that of the non-chosen lottery, giving them the opportunity to experience regret. During the decision phase, visual patterns of information acquisition were consistent with the assessment of anticipated regret, in addition to a clear assessment of lotteries' expected values. During the feedback phase, subjective ratings and eye-tracking results confirmed that participants compared their outcome with the outcome of the non-chosen lottery in the complete feedback condition, particularly after a loss, and ignored the non-realized outcome of the chosen option. Moreover, participants who made more visual saccades consistent with counterfactual comparisons during the feedback period anticipated regret more in their decisions. These results are consistent with the proposed adaptive function of regret.

Neural dynamics of social tie formation in economic decision-making.

The disposition for prosocial conduct, which contributes to cooperation as arising during social interaction, requires cortical network dynamics responsive to the development of social ties, or care about the interests of specific interaction partners. Here, we formulate a dynamic computational model that accurately predicted how tie formation, driven by the interaction history, influences decisions to contribute in a public good game. We used model-driven functional MRI to test the hypothesis that brain regions key to social interactions keep track of dynamics in tie strength. Activation in the medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC) and posterior cingulate cortex tracked the individual's public good contributions. Activation in the bilateral posterior superior temporal sulcus (pSTS), and temporo-parietal junction was modulated parametrically by the dynamically developing social tie-as estimated by our model-supporting a role of these regions in social tie formation. Activity in these two regions further reflected inter-individual differences in tie persistence and sensitivity to behavior of the interaction partner. Functional connectivity between pSTS and mPFC activations indicated that the representation of social ties is integrated in the decision process. These data reveal the brain mechanisms underlying the integration of interaction dynamics into a social tie representation which in turn influenced the individual's prosocial decisions.

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Interdependent utilities: how social ranking affects choice behavior.

Organization in hierarchical dominance structures is prevalent in animal societies, so a strong preference for higher positions in social ranking is likely to be an important motivation of human social and economic behavior. This preference is also likely to influence the way in which we evaluate our outcome and the outcome of others, and finally the way we choose. In our experiment participants choose among lotteries with different levels of risk, and can observe the choice that others have made. Results show that the relative weight of gains and losses is the opposite in the private and social domain. For private outcomes, experience and anticipation of losses loom larger than gains, whereas in the social domain, gains loom larger than losses, as indexed by subjective emotional evaluations and physiological responses. We propose a theoretical model (interdependent utilities), predicting the implication of this effect for choice behavior. The relatively larger weight assigned to social gains strongly affects choices, inducing complementary behavior: faced with a weaker competitor, participants adopt a more risky and dominant behavior.