Catastrophe risk can accelerate unlikely evolutionary transitions.

Intelligent life has emerged late in Earth's habitable lifetime, and required a preceding series of key evolutionary transitions. A simple model (the Carter model) explains the late arrival of intelligent life by positing these evolutionary transitions were exceptionally unlikely 'critical steps'. An alternative model (the neocatastrophism hypothesis) proposes that intelligent life was delayed by frequent catastrophes that served to set back evolutionary innovation. Here, we generalize the Carter model and explore this hypothesis by including catastrophes that can 'undo' an evolutionary transition. Introducing catastrophes or evolutionary dead ends can create situations in which critical steps occur rapidly or in clusters, suggesting that past estimates of the number of critical steps could be underestimated. If catastrophes affect complex life more than simple life, the critical steps will also exhibit a pattern of acceleration towards the present, suggesting that the increase in biological complexity over the past 500 Myr could reflect previously overlooked evolutionary transitions. Furthermore, our results have implications for understanding the different explanations (critical steps versus neo-catastrophes) for the evolution of intelligent life and the so-called Fermi paradox-the observation that intelligent life appears rare in the observable Universe.

Information Hazards in Biotechnology.

With the advance of biotechnology, biological information, rather than biological materials, is increasingly the object of principal security concern. We argue that both in theory and in practice, existing security approaches in biology are poorly suited to manage hazardous biological information, and use the cases of Mousepox, H5N1 gain of function, and Botulinum toxin H to highlight these ongoing challenges. We suggest that mitigation of these hazards can be improved if one can: (1) anticipate hazard potential before scientific work is performed; (2) consider how much the new information would likely help both good and bad actors; and (3) aim to disclose information in the manner that maximally disadvantages bad actors versus good ones.

A General, Synthetic Model for Predicting Biodiversity Gradients from Environmental Geometry.

Latitudinal and elevational biodiversity gradients fascinate ecologists, and have inspired dozens of explanations. The geometry of the abiotic environment is sometimes thought to contribute to these gradients, yet evaluations of geometric explanations are limited by a fragmented understanding of the diversity patterns they predict. This article presents a mathematical model that synthesizes multiple pathways by which environmental geometry can drive diversity gradients. The model characterizes species ranges by their environmental niches and limits on range sizes and places those ranges onto the simplified geometries of a sphere or cone. The model predicts nuanced and realistic species-richness gradients, including latitudinal diversity gradients with tropical plateaus and mid-latitude inflection points and elevational diversity gradients with low-elevation diversity maxima. The model also illustrates the importance of a mid-environment effect that augments species richness at locations with intermediate environments. Model predictions match multiple empirical biodiversity gradients, depend on ecological traits in a testable fashion, and formally synthesize elements of several geometric models. Together, these results suggest that previous assessments of geometric hypotheses should be reconsidered and that environmental geometry may play a deeper role in driving biodiversity gradients than is currently appreciated.

Antifungal activity in thrips soldiers suggests a dual role for this caste.

The social insect soldier is perhaps the most widely known caste, because it often exhibits spectacular weapons, such as highly enlarged jaws or reinforced appendages, which are used to defend the colony against enemies ranging in size from wasps to anteaters. We examined the function of the enlarged forelimbs of soldiers (both male and female) of the eusocial, gall-inhabiting insect Kladothrips intermedius, and discovered that they have little impact on their ability to repel the specialized invading thrips Koptothrips species. While the efficacy of the enlarged forelimb appears equivocal, we show that soldiers secrete strong antifungal compounds capable of controlling the specialized insect fungal pathogen, Cordyceps bassiana. Our data suggest that these thrips soldiers have evolved in response to selection by both macro- and micro-organisms. While it is unknown whether specialized fungal pathogens have been major selective agents in the evolution of the soldier caste in general, they were probably present when sociality first evolved and may have been the primordial enemies of social insects.

Impacts of horticultural mineral oils and two insecticide practices on population fluctuation of Diaphorina citri and spread of Huanglongbing in a citrus orchard in Sarawak.

Aspects of the incidence and spread of the citrus disease huanglongbing (HLB) in relation to the vector Diaphorina citri population fluctuation were studied from January 1999 to December 2001 seasons in a 0.8 ha citrus orchard at Jemukan (1° 33'N, 110° 41'E), Southwest Sarawak in Malaysia. In relation to insecticide and horticultural mineral oils (HMOs) use, levels of HLB infection rose quite rapidly over the next 3 years in the unsprayed control and less rapidly in the other treatments such as imidacloprid, nC24HMO, and triazophos/cypermethrin/chlorpyrifos. Levels of HLB as determined by Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) were 42.2%, 9.4%, 11.4%, and 22.7%, respectively. The effects of nC(24)HMO and conventional pesticides on the citrus psyllid population and parasitoids in citrus orchard were also determined.

Antimicrobial strength increases with group size: implications for social evolution.

We hypothesize that aggregations of animals are likely to attract pathogenic micro-organisms and that this is especially the case for semisocial and eusocial insects where selection ultimately led to group sizes in the thousands or even millions, attracting the epithet 'superorganism'. Here, we analyse antimicrobial strength, per individual, in eight thrips species (Insecta: Thysanoptera) that present increasing innate group sizes and show that species with the largest group size (100-700) had the strongest antimicrobials, those with smaller groups (10-80) had lower antimicrobial activity, while solitary species showed none. Species with large innate group sizes showed strong antimicrobial activity while the semisocial species showed no activity until group size increased sufficiently to make activity detectable. The eusocial species behaved in a similar way, with detectable activity appearing once group size exceeded 120. These analyses show that antimicrobial strength is determined by innate group size. This suggests that the evolution of sociality that, by definition, increases group size, may have had particular requirements for defences against microbial pathogens. Thus, increase in group size, accompanied by increased antibiotic strength, may have been a critical factor determining the 'point of no return', early in the evolution of social insects, beyond which the evolution of social anatomical and morphological traits was irreversible. Our data suggest that traits that increase group size in general are accompanied by increased antimicrobial strength and that this was critical for transitions from solitary to social and eusocial organization.

Ecology and bioprospecting.

Bioprospecting is the exploration of biodiversity for new resources of social and commercial value. It is carried out by a wide range of established industries such as pharmaceuticals, manufacturing and agriculture as well as a wide range of comparatively new ones such as aquaculture, bioremediation, biomining, biomimetic engineering and nanotechnology. The benefits of bioprospecting have emerged from such a wide range of organisms and environments worldwide that it is not possible to predict what species or habitats will be critical to society, or industry, in the future. The benefits include an unexpected variety of products that include chemicals, genes, metabolic pathways, structures, materials and behaviours. These may provide physical blueprints or inspiration for new designs. Criticism aimed at bioprospecting has been addressed, in part, by international treaties and legal agreements aimed at stopping biopiracy and many activities are now funded by agencies that require capacity-building and economic benefits in host countries. Thus, much contemporary bioprospecting has multiple goals, including the conservation of biodiversity, the sustainable management of natural resources and economic development. Ecologists are involved in three vital ways: first, applying ecological principles to the discovery of new resources. In this context, natural history becomes a vast economic database. Second, carrying out field studies, most of them demographic, to help regulate the harvest of wild species. Third, emphasizing the profound importance of millions of mostly microscopic species to the global economy.

The Timing of Evolutionary Transitions Suggests Intelligent Life is Rare.

It is unknown how abundant extraterrestrial life is, or whether such life might be complex or intelligent. On Earth, the emergence of complex intelligent life required a preceding series of evolutionary transitions such as abiogenesis, eukaryogenesis, and the evolution of sexual reproduction, multicellularity, and intelligence itself. Some of these transitions could have been extraordinarily improbable, even in conducive environments. The emergence of intelligent life late in Earth's lifetime is thought to be evidence for a handful of rare evolutionary transitions, but the timing of other evolutionary transitions in the fossil record is yet to be analyzed in a similar framework. Using a simplified Bayesian model that combines uninformative priors and the timing of evolutionary transitions, we demonstrate that expected evolutionary transition times likely exceed the lifetime of Earth, perhaps by many orders of magnitude. Our results corroborate the original argument suggested by Brandon Carter that intelligent life in the Universe is exceptionally rare, assuming that intelligent life elsewhere requires analogous evolutionary transitions. Arriving at the opposite conclusion would require exceptionally conservative priors, evidence for much earlier transitions, multiple instances of transitions, or an alternative model that can explain why evolutionary transitions took hundreds of millions of years without appealing to rare chance events. Although the model is simple, it provides an initial basis for evaluating how varying biological assumptions and fossil record data impact the probability of evolving intelligent life, and also provides a number of testable predictions, such as that some biological paradoxes will remain unresolved and that planets orbiting M dwarf stars are uninhabitable.

Spatial scaling of microbial eukaryote diversity.

Patterns in the spatial distribution of organisms provide important information about mechanisms that regulate the diversity of life and the complexity of ecosystems. Although microorganisms may comprise much of the Earth's biodiversity and have critical roles in biogeochemistry and ecosystem functioning, little is known about their spatial diversification. Here we present quantitative estimates of microbial community turnover at local and regional scales using the largest spatially explicit microbial diversity data set available (> 10(6) sample pairs). Turnover rates were small across large geographical distances, of similar magnitude when measured within distinct habitats, and did not increase going from one vegetation type to another. The taxa-area relationship of these terrestrial microbial eukaryotes was relatively flat (slope z = 0.074) and consistent with those reported in aquatic habitats. This suggests that despite high local diversity, microorganisms may have only moderate regional diversity. We show how turnover patterns can be used to project taxa-area relationships up to whole continents. Taxa dissimilarities across continents and between them would strengthen these projections. Such data do not yet exist, but would be feasible to collect.

Conservation prioritization can resolve the flagship species conundrum.

Conservation strategies based on charismatic flagship species, such as tigers, lions, and elephants, successfully attract funding from individuals and corporate donors. However, critics of this species-focused approach argue it wastes resources and often does not benefit broader biodiversity. If true, then the best way of raising conservation funds excludes the best way of spending it. Here we show that this conundrum can be resolved, and that the flagship species approach does not impede cost-effective conservation. Through a tailored prioritization approach, we identify places containing flagship species while also maximizing global biodiversity representation (based on 19,616 terrestrial and freshwater species). We then compare these results to scenarios that only maximized biodiversity representation, and demonstrate that our flagship-based approach achieves 79-89% of our objective. This provides strong evidence that prudently selected flagships can both raise funds for conservation and help target where these resources are best spent to conserve biodiversity.

Detecting breast cancer in a general practice - Like finding needles in a haystack?

BACKGROUND: Breast cancer contributes the largest burden of cancer related disease in Australian women. Early detection is an important part of the general practitioner's work, with clinical audit recommended to help improve the quality of such work. METHODS: A clinical database was analysed for newly diagnosed breast cancer patients of one GP for the years 1986-2006. RESULTS: Thirty new cases of breast cancer were diagnosed, with 87% in the 'early' stages. Fifty-seven percent were outside the target age of 50-69 years used by BreastScreen to recruit women for screening. Apparent false-negative investigations occurred in 33% of cases. The mean time interval between women noting symptoms and consulting the GP was 84 days and the mean time interval from first presentation to final diagnosis was 54 days. DISCUSSION: The diagnosis of breast cancer in this series was relatively infrequent, and prior apparent false-negative investigations were not uncommon. As many women diagnosed were outside the usual mammography screening age range of 50-69 years, there is a need for constant awareness of the possibility of breast cancer in all female patients. Encouraging women to present early with breast symptoms and adherence to the 'triple test' recommendation of clinical breast examination, imaging and biopsy for women with breast symptoms is important to minimise the risk of diagnostic delay.

An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction.

We evaluate the total probability of human extinction from naturally occurring processes. Such processes include risks that are well characterized such as asteroid impacts and supervolcanic eruptions, as well as risks that remain unknown. Using only the information that Homo sapiens has existed at least 200,000 years, we conclude that the probability that humanity goes extinct from natural causes in any given year is almost guaranteed to be less than one in 14,000, and likely to be less than one in 87,000. Using the longer track record of survival for our entire genus Homo produces even tighter bounds, with an annual probability of natural extinction likely below one in 870,000. These bounds are unlikely to be affected by possible survivorship bias in the data, and are consistent with mammalian extinction rates, typical hominin species lifespans, the frequency of well-characterized risks, and the frequency of mass extinctions. No similar guarantee can be made for risks that our ancestors did not face, such as anthropogenic climate change or nuclear/biological warfare.

Author Correction: An upper bound for the background rate of human extinction.

An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.

Chemical and genetic defenses against disease in insect societies.

The colonies of ants, bees, wasps and termites, the social insects, consist of large numbers of closely related individuals; circumstances ideal for contagious diseases. Antimicrobial assays of these animals have demonstrated a wide variety of chemical defenses against both bacteria and fungi that can be broadly classified as either external antiseptic compounds or internal immune molecules. Reducing the disease risks inherent in colonies of social insects is also achieved by behaviors, such as multiple mating or dispersal, that lower genetic relatedness both within- and among colonies. The interactions between social insects and their pathogens are complex, as illustrated by some ants that require antimicrobial and behavioral defenses against highly specialized fungi, such as those in the genus Cordyceps that attack larvae and adults and species in the genus Escovopsis that attack their food supplies. Studies of these defenses, especially in ants, have revealed remarkably sophisticated immune systems, including peptides induced by, and specific to, individual bacterial strains. The latter may be the result of the recruitment by the ants of antibiotic-producing bacteria but the extent of such three-way interactions remains unknown. There is strong experimental evidence that the evolution of sociality required dramatic increases in antimicrobial defenses and that microbes have been powerful selective agents. The antimicrobial chemicals and the insect-killing fungi may be useful in medicine and agriculture, respectively.

An enhanced miniaturized assay for antimicrobial prospecting.

Bioprospecting for novel antimicrobials increasingly relies on extremely small samples unsuitable for conventional bulk extraction and assay. We developed a microtitre plate assay for minimal amounts of test materials which is rapid, extremely sensitive, allows time-course analysis and reduces false negatives. Developed for the analyses of antimicrobial sensitivity and resistance, the technique is appropriate for assays where source materials are scarce.

Existential Risk and Cost-Effective Biosecurity.

In the decades to come, advanced bioweapons could threaten human existence. Although the probability of human extinction from bioweapons may be low, the expected value of reducing the risk could still be large, since such risks jeopardize the existence of all future generations. We provide an overview of biotechnological extinction risk, make some rough initial estimates for how severe the risks might be, and compare the cost-effectiveness of reducing these extinction-level risks with existing biosecurity work. We find that reducing human extinction risk can be more cost-effective than reducing smaller-scale risks, even when using conservative estimates. This suggests that the risks are not low enough to ignore and that more ought to be done to prevent the worst-case scenarios.