A Qualitative Concept Elicitation Study to Understand Patient-Reported Symptoms and Impacts of Neisseria gonorrhoeae Infections in the United States.

BACKGROUND: Gonorrhea is the second most common bacterial sexually transmitted infection in the United States, with rising rates. Emerging antimicrobial resistance threatens public health, and vaccines are in development. This study documents patient-reported gonorrhea symptoms and health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL) impact in women who have sex with men (WSM), men who have sex with women (MSW), and men who have sex with men (MSM). METHODS: Semistructured qualitative interviews were conducted (April 2021-March 2022) among US adults with recent (≤6 months) confirmed gonorrhea. Concept saturation was achieved, confirming adequate participant numbers to meet objectives. Elicited symptom and HRQoL impacts were used to develop a conceptual disease model. Common patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) items were compared with elicited concepts. RESULTS: Thirty-two participants (15 WSM, 8 MSW, and 9 MSM) were included. Eight were asymptomatic, 6 had repeat infections, and 5 women and 4 men had complications (i.e., infertility or pelvic inflammatory disease, and urethritis, respectively).The most frequently reported symptoms were vaginal discharge (n = 11 of 12), dysuria (n = 10 of 12), and abdominal/vaginal pain (n = 9 of 12) for symptomatic WSM; dysuria (n = 5 of 6) and penile discharge (n = 4 of 6) for symptomatic MSW; and throat, testicular, or rectal pain (n = 4 of 6) for symptomatic MSM. All (symptomatic and asymptomatic) participants reported HRQoL impacts including negative emotional experiences (n = 31 of 32), and interference with sexual activity (n = 30 of 32), relationships (n = 24 of 32), and social life (n = 17 of 32). Concepts were poorly represented in existing PROMs. CONCLUSIONS: Participants reported a diverse range of symptoms and HRQoL impacts, to help inform the value of new treatment and prevention options. More research is needed to quantify patient burden and develop PROMs.

Guiding Principles for Evaluating Vaccines in Joint Health Technology Assessment in the European Union: Preparing for the European Union's Regulation on Health Technology Assessment for Vaccines.

OBJECTIVES: The appraisal of vaccines in the European Union (EU) currently involves many different decision-making bodies and processes. The objective of this study was to help inform the development of standardized methodology and vaccine-specific processes for use in the EU Regulation on health technology assessment (HTA). METHODS: Literature reviews and expert consultation were conducted to identify current practices and gaps related to vaccine appraisals and to develop guiding principles for the joint clinical assessment of vaccines. RESULTS: We found that significant variation exists across the EU member states in the decision-making processes when clinically evaluating vaccines. Three guiding principles consisting of 13 recommendations were developed to help inform the development of decision-making frameworks for the joint clinical assessment of vaccines in the EU: (1) support the creation of appropriate terminology and measurements for clinical appraisals of vaccines; (2) develop inclusive, timely, and transparent vaccine appraisal processes to support stronger evidence generation for vaccine decision making and appraisal; and (3) improve the collection and interoperability of real-world data, including robust surveillance, to foster evidence generation and support the standardization of vaccine clinical appraisals. CONCLUSIONS: Given the significance of vaccines for public health, there is an urgency to develop standardized and vaccine-specific methodologies and processes for use in the EU joint HTA framework. The proposed guiding principles could support the effective implementation of the EU Regulation on HTA for vaccines and have the potential to ensure consistent, transparent, and timely access to new vaccines in the EU.

The potential public health impact of adolescent 4CMenB vaccination on Neisseria gonorrhoeae infection in England: a modelling study.

INTRODUCTION: Diagnoses of gonorrhoea in England rose by 26% between 2018 and 2019. Recent evidence that a vaccine against meningococcal B disease currently offered to infants in the UK (4CMenB) could additionally protect (with 31% efficacy) against gonorrhoea has led to renewed hope for a vaccine. A Phase 2 proof-of-concept trial of 4CMenB vaccination against gonorrhoea in adults is currently underway. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the potential public health impact of adolescent gonorrhoea vaccination in England, considering different implementation strategies. METHODS: We developed a deterministic transmission-dynamic model of gonorrhoea infection among heterosexual 13-64-year-olds stratified by age, sex and sexual activity. We explored the impact of a National Immunisation Programme (NIP) among 14-year-olds for a vaccine with 31% efficacy, 6 years' duration of protection, and 85% uptake. We also explored how impact might change for varying efficacy (20-50%) and uptake (75-95%), the addition of a catch-up programme, the use of boosters, and varying duration of protection. RESULTS: An NIP against gonorrhoea could lead to 50,000 (95% credible interval, CrI 31,000-80,000) and 849,000 (95%CrI 476,000-1,568,000) gonorrhoea infections being averted over 10 and 70 years, respectively, in England, for a vaccine with 31% efficacy and 85% uptake. This is equivalent to 25% (95%CrI 17-33%) of heterosexual infections being averted over 70 years. Vaccine impact is predicted to increase over time and be greatest among 13-18-year-olds (39% of infections 95%CrI 31-49% averted) over 70 years. Varying vaccine efficacy and duration of protection had a noticeable effect on impact. Catch-up and booster vaccination increased the short- and long-term impact, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: A partially-effective vaccine against gonorrhoea infection, delivered to 14-year-olds alongside the MenACWY vaccine, could have an important population impact on gonorrhoea. Catch-up and booster vaccination could be considered alongside cohort vaccination to increase impact.

Capturing the value of vaccination: impact of vaccine-preventable disease on hospitalization.

Evidence from epidemiological studies suggests that vaccine-preventable disease (VPD) such as influenza or herpes zoster contribute significantly to the increased risk of older adults for cardiovascular, cerebrovascular, neurological, and renal complications in the period after illnesses. However, since the period of elevated risk can persist well beyond the duration of the acute illness, the connection is not always recognized. To obtain insights into the relationship between diagnoses for vaccine-preventable disease and for other conditions, we analyzed principal and secondary diagnoses for 3,127,768 inpatient admissions of adults 50 years and older in the United States, using medical insurance claims drawn from the IBM® MarketScan® Research Databases (Marketscan). The Marketscan data indicated that overall, 3.1% of these hospitalizations had a principal diagnosis of VPD with variation by month of admission, and age. However, hospitalizations with a principal non-VPD diagnosis but secondary VPD diagnoses were 2.8 times more frequent, with particularly high rates in those whose principal diagnoses were non-VPD respiratory or circulatory disease. Hospitalized patients with a secondary VPD diagnosis tended to have poorer discharge outcomes, and longer length of stay in comparison to hospitalized patients without a secondary VPD diagnosis. In total, these data are consistent with suggestions that VPDs play a significant and potentially under-estimated role in hospitalization and outcomes, which may be potentially preventable by improved vaccination coverage.

Cost-Effectiveness of 4CMenB Infant Vaccination in England: A Comprehensive Valuation Considering the Broad Impact of Serogroup B Invasive Meningococcal Disease.

OBJECTIVES: This cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of 4CMenB infant vaccination in England comprehensively considers the broad burden of serogroup B invasive meningococcal disease (MenB IMD), which has not been considered, or was only partially considered in previous CEAs. METHODS: A review of previous MenB vaccination CEAs was conducted to identify aspects considered in the evaluation of costs and health outcomes of the disease burden of MenB IMD. To inform the model structure and comprehensive analysis, the aspects were grouped into 5 categories. A stepwise analysis was conducted to analyze the impact of each category, and the more comprehensive consideration of disease burden, on the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER). RESULTS: MenB IMD incidence decreased by 46.0% in infants and children 0-4 years old within 5 years after introduction of the program. Stepwise inclusion of the 5 disease burden categories to a conventional narrow CEA setting reduced the ICER from £360 595 to £18 645-that is, considering the impact of all 5 categories, 4CMenB infant vaccination is cost-effective at a threshold of £20 000 per QALY gained. CONCLUSIONS: When considering comprehensively the MenB IMD burden, 4CMenB infant vaccination can be cost-effective, a finding contrary to previous CEAs. This analysis allows policy decision-makers globally to infer the impact of current disease burden considerations on the cost-effectiveness and the comprehensive assessment necessary for MenB IMD. Although this comprehensive CEA can help inform decision making today, it may be limited in capturing the full disease burden and complex interactions of health and economics of MenB IMD.

Applying a novel approach to scoping review incorporating artificial intelligence: mapping the natural history of gonorrhoea.

BACKGROUND: Systematic and scoping literature searches are increasingly resource intensive. We present the results of a scoping review which combines the use of a novel artificial-intelligence-(AI)-assisted Medline search tool with two other 'traditional' literature search methods. We illustrate this novel approach with a case study to identify and map the range of conditions (clinical presentations, complications, coinfections and health problems) associated with gonorrhoea infection. METHODS: To fully characterize the range of health outcomes associated with gonorrhoea, we combined a high yield preliminary search with a traditional systematic search, then supplemented with the output of a novel AI-assisted Medline search tool based on natural language processing methods to identify eligible literature. RESULTS: We identified 189 health conditions associated with gonorrhoea infection of which: 53 were identified through the initial 'high yield' search; 99 through the systematic search; and 124 through the AI-assisted search. These were extracted from 107 unique references and 21 International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems Ninth and Tenth Revision (ICD 9/10) or Read codes. Health conditions were mapped to the urogenital tract (n = 86), anorectal tract (n = 6) oropharyngeal tract (n = 5) and the eye (n = 14); and other conditions such as systemic (n = 61) and neonatal conditions (n = 7), psychosocial associations (n = 3), and co-infections (n = 7). The 107 unique references attained a Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) score of ≥2++ (n = 2), 2+ (14 [13%]), 2- (30 [28%]) and 3 (45 [42%]), respectively. The remaining papers (n = 16) were reviews. CONCLUSIONS: Through AI screening of Medline, we captured - titles, abstracts, case reports and case series related to rare but serious health conditions related to gonorrhoea infection. These outcomes might otherwise have been missed during a systematic search. The AI-assisted search provided a useful addition to traditional/manual literature searches especially when rapid results are required in an exploratory setting.

Elementary proof of convergence to the mean-field model for the SIR process.

The susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model has been used extensively to model disease spread and other processes. Despite the widespread usage of this ordinary differential equation (ODE) based model which represents the mean-field approximation of the underlying stochastic SIR process on contact networks, only few rigorous approaches exist and these use complex semigroup and martingale techniques to prove that the expected fraction of the susceptible and infected nodes of the stochastic SIR process on a complete graph converges as the number of nodes increases to the solution of the mean-field ODE model. Extending the elementary proof of convergence for the SIS process introduced by Armbruster and Beck (IMA J Appl Math, doi: 10.1093/imamat/hxw010 , 2016) to the SIR process, we show convergence using only a system of three ODEs, simple probabilistic inequalities, and basic ODE theory. Our approach can also be generalized to many other types of compartmental models (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered-susceptible (SIRS)) which are linear ODEs with the addition of quadratic terms for the number of new infections similar to the SI term in the SIR model.

Tiotropium in asthma poorly controlled with standard combination therapy.

BACKGROUND: Some patients with asthma have frequent exacerbations and persistent airflow obstruction despite treatment with inhaled glucocorticoids and long-acting beta-agonists (LABAs). METHODS: In two replicate, randomized, controlled trials involving 912 patients with asthma who were receiving inhaled glucocorticoids and LABAs, we compared the effect on lung function and exacerbations of adding tiotropium (a total dose of 5 µg) or placebo, both delivered by a soft-mist inhaler once daily for 48 weeks. All the patients were symptomatic, had a post-bronchodilator forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)) of 80% or less of the predicted value, and had a history of at least one severe exacerbation in the previous year. RESULTS: The patients had a mean baseline FEV(1) of 62% of the predicted value; the mean age was 53 years. At 24 weeks, the mean (±SE) change in the peak FEV(1) from baseline was greater with tiotropium than with placebo in the two trials: a difference of 86±34 ml in trial 1 (P=0.01) and 154±32 ml in trial 2 (P<0.001). The predose (trough) FEV(1) also improved in trials 1 and 2 with tiotropium, as compared with placebo: a difference of 88±31 ml (P=0.01) and 111±30 ml (P<0.001), respectively. The addition of tiotropium increased the time to the first severe exacerbation (282 days vs. 226 days), with an overall reduction of 21% in the risk of a severe exacerbation (hazard ratio, 0.79; P=0.03). No deaths occurred; adverse events were similar in the two groups. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with poorly controlled asthma despite the use of inhaled glucocorticoids and LABAs, the addition of tiotropium significantly increased the time to the first severe exacerbation and provided modest sustained bronchodilation. (Funded by Boehringer Ingelheim and Pfizer; ClinicalTrials.gov numbers, NCT00772538 and NCT00776984.).

Dose-finding evaluation of once-daily treatment with olodaterol, a novel long-acting ß2-agonist, in patients with asthma: results of a parallel-group study and a crossover study.

BACKGROUND: Olodaterol is a novel, inhaled long-acting ß2-agonist (LABA) with >24-hour duration of action investigated in asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. METHODS: Two multicentre studies examined the efficacy and safety of 4 weeks' once-daily (QD) olodaterol (2, 5, 10 and 20 µg, with background inhaled corticosteroids) in patients with asthma. One randomised, double-blind, parallel-group study (1222.6; 296 patients) administered treatment in the morning. Pulmonary function tests (PFTs) were performed pre-dose (trough) and ≤3 hours post-dose (weeks 1 and 2), and ≤6 hours post-dose after 4 weeks; primary end point was trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) response (change from baseline mean FEV1) after 4 weeks. A second randomised, double-blind, placebo- and active-controlled (formoterol 12 µg twice-daily) incomplete-block crossover study (1222.27; 198 patients) administered QD treatments in the evening. PFTs were performed over a 24-hour dosing interval after 4 weeks; primary end point was FEV1 area under the curve from 0-24 hours (AUC0-24) response (change from study baseline [mean FEV1] after 4 weeks). RESULTS: Study 1222.6 showed a statistically significant increase in trough FEV1 response with olodaterol 20 µg (0.147 L; 95 % confidence interval [CI]: 0.059, 0.234; p = 0.001) versus placebo, with more limited efficacy and no evidence of dose response compared to placebo across the other olodaterol doses (2, 5 and 10 µg). Study 1222.27 demonstrated increases in FEV1 AUC0-24 responses at 4 weeks with all active treatments (p < 0.0001); adjusted mean (95 % CI) differences from placebo were 0.140 (0.097, 0.182), 0.182 (0.140, 0.224), 0.205 (0.163, 0.248) and 0.229 (0.186, 0.272) L for olodaterol 2, 5, 10 and 20 µg, respectively, and 0.169 (0.126, 0.211) for formoterol, providing evidence of increased efficacy with higher olodaterol dose. Olodaterol was generally well tolerated, with a few events associated with known sympathomimetic effects, mainly with 20 µg. CONCLUSIONS: The LABA olodaterol has >24-hour duration of action. In patients with asthma, evidence of bronchodilator efficacy was demonstrated with statistically and clinically significant improvements in the primary end point of trough FEV1 response measured in clinics over placebo for the highest administered dose of 20 µg in Study 1222.6, and statistically and clinically significant improvements versus placebo in FEV1 AUC0-24 responses at 4 weeks for all doses tested in Study 1222.27, which also exhibited a dose response. Bronchodilator efficacy was seen over placebo for all olodaterol doses for morning and evening peak expiratory flow in both studies. All doses were well tolerated. TRIAL REGISTRATIONS: NCT00467740 (1222.6) and NCT01013753 (1222.27).

Public Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness Analysis of 4-Component Meningococcal Serotype B Vaccination for Infants in France.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: In France, meningococcal serogroup B (MenB) is the most common serogroup causing invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) in infants and young children. Our objective was to illustrate the impact of model choices on health outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of infant vaccination with the multicomponent meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) versus no vaccine in France. METHODS: A previously published dynamic transmission-based cost-effectiveness model was adapted for the French context using updated, French-specific demographic, epidemiological, and cost data. IMD incidence and long-term sequelae were derived through analysis of French healthcare and surveillance databases. A collective perspective over a 100-year time horizon was adopted, with a discount rate of 2.5%, reduced to 1.5% after the first 30 years. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. RESULTS: In the base case analysis, infant vaccination with 4CMenB avoided 3101 MenB IMD cases in infants aged < 1 year (- 54%) and 6845 cases in all age groups (- 21%). The estimated incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €316,272/quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) but was highly sensitive to the types of sequelae included, MenB incidence, vaccine effectiveness parameters, and consideration of life-expectancy in IMD survivors (range: €65,272/QALY to €493,218/QALY). CONCLUSIONS: Using economic models compliant with French methodology guidelines, 4CMenB does not seem cost-effective; however, results are sensitive to model choices and 4CMenB immunization is an effective strategy to prevent MenB IMD cases and to improve quality of life and economic burden associated with MenB IMD treatment, especially with regard to long-term sequelae.

Invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) is rare but can lead to lifelong disabilities and death. It is caused by a type of bacteria called Neisseria meningitidis. IMD is most common in infants and young children, and in this group it is mostly caused by Neisseria serogroup B bacteria. We analyzed the number of IMD cases caused by serogroup B in France, as well as sequelae (long-time effects of the disease), using data from national healthcare databases. The most common sequelae observed were epilepsy, severe neurological disorders, and anxiety, occurring in approximately 5% of patients. We then calculated the costs and benefits of the multicomponent meningococcal serogroup B vaccine (4CMenB) vaccine for infants and young children in France. The results showed that 4CMenB vaccination can reduce the number of IMD cases due to serogroup B by 3101 cases (− 54%) in infants under 1 year and by 6845 cases (− 21%) in all age groups. Over 100 years, vaccination could prevent over 2000 cases of IMD that result in disabilities and 438 deaths. The estimated cost-effectiveness ratio was high. However, costs per health benefit gained decreased when focusing on long-term health benefits. In France, there is no threshold for the cost-effectiveness ratio and the French Health Authority has included 4CMenB in its vaccination schedule. This recommendation reflects results from our study, which highlights the considerable burden on families and patients, mostly because of IMD-related disabilities. Early vaccination is a good way to protect infants and young children against this serious disease.

The Potential Economic Impact of the Updated COVID-19 mRNA Fall 2023 Vaccines in Japan.

This analysis estimates the economic and clinical impact of a Moderna updated COVID-19 mRNA Fall 2023 vaccine for adults ≥18 years in Japan. A previously developed Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered (SEIR) model with a one-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024) and consequences decision tree were used to estimate symptomatic infections, COVID-19 related hospitalizations, deaths, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for a Moderna updated Fall 2023 vaccine versus no additional vaccination, and versus a Pfizer-BioNTech updated mRNA Fall 2023 vaccine. The Moderna vaccine is predicted to prevent 7.2 million symptomatic infections, 272,100 hospitalizations and 25,600 COVID-19 related deaths versus no vaccine. In the base case (healthcare perspective), the ICER was ¥1,300,000/QALY gained ($9400 USD/QALY gained). Sensitivity analyses suggest results are most affected by COVID-19 incidence, initial vaccine effectiveness (VE), and VE waning against infection. Assuming the relative VE between both bivalent vaccines apply to updated Fall 2023 vaccines, the base case suggests the Moderna version will prevent an additional 1,100,000 symptomatic infections, 27,100 hospitalizations, and 2600 deaths compared to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. The updated Moderna vaccine is expected to be highly cost-effective at a ¥5 million willingness-to-pay threshold across a wide range of scenarios.

Real-World Effectiveness of a Third Dose of mRNA-1273 Versus BNT162b2 on Inpatient and Medically Attended COVID-19 Among Immunocompromised US Adults.

INTRODUCTION: Recent data have shown elevated infection rates in several subpopulations at risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19, including immunocompromised (IC) individuals. Previous research suggests that IC persons have reduced risks of hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 with two doses of mRNA-1273 (SpikeVax; Moderna) compared to two doses of BNT162b2 (Comirnaty; Pfizer/BioNTech). The main objective of this retrospective cohort study was to compare real-world effectiveness of third doses of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 at multiple time points on occurrence of COVID-19 hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 among IC adults in the United States (US). METHODS: This retrospective, observational comparative effectiveness study identified patients from the US HealthVerity database from December 11, 2020, through August 31, 2022. Medically attended SARS-CoV-2 infections and hospitalizations were assessed following a three-dose mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 regimen. Inverse probability weighting was applied to balance baseline confounders between vaccine groups. Relative risk (RR) and risk difference were calculated for subgroup and sensitivity analyses using a non-parametric method. RESULTS: In propensity score-adjusted analyses, receiving mRNA-1273 vs. BNT162b2 as third dose was associated with 32.4% (relative risk 0.676; 95% confidence interval 0.506-0.887), 29.3% (0.707; 0.573-0.858), and 23.4% (0.766; 0.626-0.927) lower risk of COVID-19 hospitalization after 90, 180, and 270 days, respectively. Corresponding reductions in medically attended COVID-19 were 8.4% (0.916; 0.860-0.976), 6.4% (0.936; 0.895-0.978), and 2.4% (0.976; 0.935-1.017), respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest a third dose of mRNA-1273 is more effective than a third dose of BNT162b2 in preventing COVID-19 hospitalization and breakthrough medically attended COVID-19 among IC adults in the US.

Lifecycle model-based evaluation of infant 4CMenB vaccination in the UK.

OBJECTIVES: Invasive meningococcal disease, an uncommon but severe disease, imposes catastrophic health and economic burdens. Cost-utility analysis (CUA) assumes separability in lifetime health and economic variables and cannot capture the full value of preventing such burdens. We overcome these limitations with a retrospective societal perspective cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of meningococcal serogroup B vaccination (4CMenB) of one infant cohort in the United Kingdom using a health-augmented lifecycle model (HALM) incorporating health's interactions with consumption, earnings, non-market time and financial risk. METHODS: We used a static Markov model of vaccination's health impact and an HALM to estimate the private willingness to pay (PWTP) for the intrinsic and instrumental value of health under perfect capital markets, financial risk protection in the absence of insurance against permanent disability, parental spillovers, and acute phase disability. We estimated social WTP (SWTP) incorporating social severity preferences. We estimated rates of return that inform health payer reimbursement decisions, finance ministry budgeting decisions, and legislature taxation decisions. An expert Advisory Board investigated the validity of applying the HALM to infant 4CMenB. RESULTS: The PWTP for a 2 + 1 vaccination schedule is £395, comprising £166 of disability insurance value, £79 of positive parental spillover value, £28 in the value of averting acute phase disability, and £122 in residual intrinsic and instrumental value of health. SWTP is £969. CONCLUSIONS: HALM-based CBA provides an empirically richer, more utility-theoretically grounded approach to vaccine evaluation than CUA, demonstrating good value for money for legislatures (based on private values) and for all decision-makers (based on social values).

Clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of the updated COVID-19 mRNA Autumn 2023 vaccines in Germany.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the potential clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) mRNA vaccines updated for Autumn 2023 in adults aged ≥60 years and high-risk persons aged 30-59 years in Germany over a 1-year analytic time horizon (September 2023-August 2024). METHODS: A compartmental Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered model was updated and adapted to the German market. Numbers of symptomatic infections, a number of COVID-19 related hospitalizations and deaths, costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained were calculated using a decision tree model. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of an Autumn 2023 Moderna updated COVID-19 (mRNA-1273.815) vaccine was compared to no additional vaccination. Potential differences between the mRNA-1273.815 and the Autumn Pfizer-BioNTech updated COVID-19 (XBB.1.5 BNT162b2) vaccines, as well as societal return on investment for the mRNA-1273.815 vaccine relative to no vaccination, were also examined. RESULTS: Compared to no autumn vaccination, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is predicted to prevent approximately 1,697,900 symptomatic infections, 85,400 hospitalizations, and 4,100 deaths. Compared to an XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 campaign, the mRNA-1273.815 campaign is also predicted to prevent approximately 90,100 symptomatic infections, 3,500 hospitalizations, and 160 deaths. Across both analyses we found the mRNA-1273.815 campaign to be dominant. CONCLUSIONS: The mRNA-1273.815 vaccine can be considered cost-effective relative to the XBB.1.5 BNT162b2 vaccine and highly likely to provide more benefits and save costs compared to no vaccine in Germany, and to offer high societal return on investment.

New Vaccine Platforms-Novel Dimensions of Economic and Societal Value and Their Measurement.

The COVID-19 pandemic's dramatic impact has been a vivid reminder that vaccines-especially in the context of infectious respiratory viruses-provide enormous societal value, well beyond the healthcare system perspective which anchors most Health Technology Assessment (HTA) and National Immunization Technical Advisory Group (NITAG) evaluation frameworks. Furthermore, the development of modified ribonucleic acid-based (mRNA-based) and nanoparticle vaccine technologies has brought into focus several new value drivers previously absent from the discourse on vaccines as public health interventions such as increased vaccine adaptation capabilities, the improved ability to develop combination vaccines, and more efficient vaccine manufacturing and production processes. We review these novel value dimensions and discuss how they might be measured and incorporated within existing value frameworks using existing methods. To realize the full potential of next-generation vaccine platforms and ensure their widespread availability across populations and health systems, it is important that value frameworks utilized by HTAs and NITAGs properly reflect the full range of benefits for population health and well-being and cost efficiencies that these new vaccines platforms provide.

Real-world comparative effectiveness of a third dose of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 among adults aged ≥ 65 years in the United States.

INTRODUCTION: To compare the real-world effectiveness of a third dose of mRNA-1273 versus a third dose of BNT162b2 against breakthrough COVID-19 hospitalizations among adults aged ≥ 65 years who completed a primary series of an mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccine (regardless of which primary series was received). MATERIALS AND METHODS: This observational comparative vaccine effectiveness (VE) study was conducted using administrative claims data from the US HealthVerity database (September 22, 2021, to August 31, 2022). A third dose of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 was assessed for preventing COVID-19 hospitalizations and medically attended COVID-19 among adults aged ≥ 65 years. Inverse probability of treatment weighting was applied to balance baseline characteristics between vaccine groups. Incidence rates from patient-level data and hazard ratios (HRs) with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) using weighted Cox proportional hazards models were calculated to estimate relative VE for each outcome. RESULTS: Overall, 94,587 and 92,377 individuals received a third dose of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2, respectively. Among the weighted population, the median age was 69 years (interquartile range, 66-74), 53 % were female, and 46 % were commercially insured. COVID-19 hospitalization rates per 1000 person-years (PYs) were 5.61 (95 % CI, 5.13-6.09) for mRNA-1273 and 7.06 (95 % CI, 6.54-7.57) for BNT162b2 (HR, 0.82; 0.69-0.98). Medically attended COVID-19 rates per 1000 PYs (95 % CI) were 95.05 (95 % CI, 93.03-97.06) for mRNA-1273 and 106.55 (95 % CI, 104.53-108.57) for BNT162b2 (HR, 0.93; 0.89-0.98). CONCLUSIONS: Results from this observational comparative VE database study provide evidence that among older adults, a third dose of mRNA-1273 was more effective in preventing breakthrough COVID-19 hospitalization and medically attended COVID-19 infection compared with a third dose of BNT162b2.

Cost-benefit analysis of the National Immunization Program in Spain.

Broad benefits of vaccination programs are well acknowledged but difficult to measure, especially when considering all vaccines included in a National Immunization Program (NIP). The aim was to conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the entire NIP in Spain, and an expanded NIP including four potential additional programs. A cost-benefit analysis was performed in Excel to assess the economic and health benefits (€) of vaccinating a single cohort of newborns over a lifetime horizon compared to no vaccination, from a societal perspective: firstly, according to the 2020 NIP in Spain (including 2021 recommendation for herpes zoster in 65-year-olds); and secondly, with an expanded NIP (adding rotavirus and meningococcal B in infants, and pertussis booster in adults aged >65 years and herpes zoster in all adults >50 years). The main inputs were taken from published literature and Spanish databases. Results were presented as a benefit-cost ratio (economic benefit per €1 invested). A cohort of 343,126 newborns were included in the analysis. The total investment needed to vaccinate the cohort throughout their lifetime, according to the 2020 NIP and the expanded NIP, was estimated at €168.5 million and €275.5 million, respectively. Potential economic benefits were €772.2 million and €803.0 million, respectively. The societal benefit-cost ratio was €4.58 and €2.91 per €1 invested, respectively. Even with the addition of new vaccination programs, the Spanish NIP yielded positive benefit-cost ratios from the societal perspective, demonstrating that NIPs spanning the full life course are an efficient public health measure.

Comparative Effectiveness of mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 COVID-19 Vaccines Among Older Adults: Systematic Literature Review and Meta-Analysis Using the GRADE Framework.

INTRODUCTION: The mRNA vaccines mRNA-1273 and BNT162b2 demonstrated high efficacy against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection in phase 3 clinical trials, including among older adults. To inform coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) vaccine selection, this systematic literature review (SLR) and meta-analysis assessed the comparative effectiveness of mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 in older adults. METHODS: We systematically searched for relevant studies reporting COVID-19 outcomes with mRNA vaccines in older adults aged ≥ 50 years by first cross-checking relevant published SLRs. Based on the cutoff date from a previous similar SLR, we then searched the WHO COVID-19 Research Database for relevant articles published between April 9, 2022, and June 2, 2023. Outcomes of interest were SARS-CoV-2 infection, symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection, severe SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19-related hospitalization, and COVID-19-related death following ≥ 2 vaccine doses. Random effects meta-analysis models were used to pool risk ratios (RRs) across studies. Heterogeneity was evaluated using chi-square testing. Evidence certainty was assessed per GRADE framework. RESULTS: Twenty-four non-randomized real-world studies reporting clinical outcomes with mRNA vaccines in individuals aged ≥ 50 years were included in the meta-analysis. Vaccination with mRNA-1273 was associated with significantly lower risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.64‒0.80]), symptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.72 [95% CI 0.62‒0.83]), severe SARS-CoV-2 infection (RR 0.67 [95% CI 0.57‒0.78]), and COVID-19-related hospitalization (RR 0.65 [95% CI 0.53‒0.79]) but not COVID-19-related death (RR 0.80 [95% CI 0.64‒1.00]) compared with BNT162b2. There was considerable heterogeneity between studies for all outcomes (I2 > 75%) except death (I2 = 0%). Multiple subgroup and sensitivity analyses excluding specific studies generally demonstrated consistent results. Certainty of evidence across outcomes was rated as low (type 3) or very low (type 4), reflecting the lack of randomized controlled trial data. CONCLUSION: Meta-analysis of 24 observational studies demonstrated significantly lower risk of asymptomatic, symptomatic, and severe infections and hospitalizations with the mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 vaccine in older adults aged ≥ 50 years.

Capturing the Value of Vaccination within Health Technology Assessment and Health Economics-Practical Considerations for Expanding Valuation by Including Key Concepts.

Following the development of a value of vaccination (VoV) framework for health technology assessment/cost-effectiveness analysis (HTA/CEA), and identification of three vaccination benefits for near-term inclusion in HTA/CEA, this final paper provides decision makers with methods and examples to consider benefits of health systems strengthening (HSS), equity, and macroeconomic gains. Expert working groups, targeted literature reviews, and case studies were used. Opportunity cost methods were applied for HSS benefits of rotavirus vaccination. Vaccination, with HSS benefits included, reduced the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) by 1.4-50.5% (to GBP 11,552-GBP 23,016) depending on alternative conditions considered. Distributional CEA was applied for health equity benefits of meningococcal vaccination. Nearly 80% of prevented cases were among the three most deprived groups. Vaccination, with equity benefits included, reduced the ICER by 22-56% (to GBP 7014-GBP 12,460), depending on equity parameters. Macroeconomic models may inform HTA deliberative processes (e.g., disease impact on the labour force and the wider economy), or macroeconomic outcomes may be assessed for individuals in CEAs (e.g., impact on non-health consumption, leisure time, and income). These case studies show how to assess broader vaccination benefits in current HTA/CEA, providing decision makers with more accurate and complete VoV assessments. More work is needed to refine inputs and methods, especially for macroeconomic gains.