Bayesian submerged oil tracking with SOSim: Inference from field reconnaissance data and fate-transport model output.

When spilled oil collects at depth, questions as to where and when to dispatch response equipment become daunting, because such oil may be invisible by air, and underwater sensing technology is limited in coverage and by underwater visibility. Further, trajectory modeling based on previously recorded flow field data may show mixed results. In this work, the Bayesian model, SOSim, is modified to locate and forecast the movement of submerged oil, with confidence bound, by inferring model parameters based on any available field concentration data and the output of one or more deterministic trajectory models. Novel aspects include specification of a prior likelihood function, and generation of results in 3-D from data in the 2-D density space of the isopycnal layer containing oil. The model is demonstrated versus data collected following the Deepwater Horizon spill. This new inferential modeling approach appears complimentary to deterministic methods when field concentration data are available.

Bayesian sunken oil tracking with SOSim v2: Inference from field and bathymetric data.

Sunken oil is often difficult to detect, and few oil spill models are designed to locate and track such oil. Therefore, the multi-modal Bayesian inferential sunken oil model, SOSim (Subsurface Oil Simulator), was expanded in this work for use during emergency response and damage assessment. Rather than requiring hydrodynamic data as input, SOSim v2 accepts available field concentration data, along with default or custom bathymetric data, for inference of the location and trajectory of sunken oil. Novel aspects include inference based on bathymetry and the Coriolis Effect, by constructing a prior likelihood function from sampled bathymetric data, scaled proportionally with field concentration data. SOSim v2 is demonstrated versus field data on the ITB DBL-152 oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, with sensitivity analysis. Results suggest that the inferential approach presented can be effective for modeling relatively slow-moving pollutant masses such as sunken oil, when field concentration data are available.

A model for the estimation of the mixing zone behind large sea vessels.

One of the important tasks associated with reducing the concentration of contaminants in the sea surface layer is the determination of their mixing volume, as of the most active systems for mixing the sea surface layer are sea vessels. The wake of a ship is a highly mixed medium. The study of the wake development over time is important when evaluating the mixing of various pollutants in the wake with neutralizing chemicals. As shown in some previous works, in the wake of a vessel that crosses a contaminated surface, the concentration of harmful impurities decreases to background values; however, the problem of determining the volumetric characteristics of this wake remains. In our work, we propose a relatively simple model for assessing the characteristics of a turbulent wake in the near zone behind a vessel. Based on the actual parameters of the vessels, the parameter F= (penetration depth) / (draft) was calculated, which characterizes the potential mixing effects caused by turbulence in the wake. The proposed simple model can be used, for example, to assess the mixing of oil when it is being bottled, with chemicals, to assess possible scenarios of increasing its dilution.

A review on the sinking mechanisms for oil and successful response technologies.

A rise in the shipping of heavier hydrocarbon products increases the potential for an oil to sink after a spill. Further, sunken oil is difficult to locate and recover, and appropriate response technologies depend on the sinking mechanism. In this review, principal sinking mechanisms for oil are described and appropriate response technologies are suggested. Then, models appropriate for tracking sunken oil are compared. Oil may sink as burn residue, microscopic oil-particle aggregates (OPAs) or macroscopic oil-sediment mixtures (OSMs), marine oil snow during a MOSSFA event, or due to its high density. The most common mechanism is by sediment entrainment, and in such scenarios manual recovery has been reported as a successful response option. Among oil tracking models, trajectory models and Bayesian oil search models are compared for sunken oil capabilities. Many oil spill models require hydrodynamic inputs, whereas Bayesian models infer parameters based on available field concentration and bathymetric data.

Improving oil spill trajectory modelling in the Arctic.

As petroleum development and other activities move further north, the potential for oil spills in ice-covered waters is of great concern. As a tool for contingency planning and forecasting during response, oil spill models play a key role. With the development of new, high-resolution coupled ice-ocean models, better predictions of sea ice are becoming available. We have updated the OSCAR oil spill model to use sea-ice velocity and coverage fields from coupled ice-ocean models to improve simulation of oil fate and transport in ice-covered waters. We describe the implementation of oil transport in the presence of ice, and demonstrate the improvement by considering three case studies. We find clear improvement when taking ice velocity from a coupled ice-ocean model into account, compared to a heuristic model that uses surface current and wind velocity. The difference is found to be especially important in a response situation near the marginal ice zone.

A critical review of marine snow in the context of oil spills and oil spill dispersant treatment with focus on the Deepwater Horizon oil spill.

Natural marine snow (NMS) is defined as the "shower" of particle aggregates formed by processes that occur in the world's oceans, consisting of macroscopic aggregates of detritus, living organisms and inorganic matter. Recent studies from the Deepwater Horizon oil spill suggest that marine snow is also formed in association with oil spills and was an important factor for the transport of oil to the seabed. This review summarizes the research and literature on MS, mainly from the DWH oil spill, with a focus on the relation between the use of oil spill dispersants and the formation and fate of oil-related marine snow (ORMS). Studies are still required to determine ORMS processes at oil concentrations as relevant as possible for chemically dispersed oil.

Current status of deepwater oil spill modelling in the Faroe-Shetland Channel, Northeast Atlantic, and future challenges.

As oil reserves in established basins become depleted, exploration and production moves towards relatively unexploited areas, such as deep waters off the continental shelf. The Faroe-Shetland Channel (FSC, NE Atlantic) and adjacent areas have been subject to increased focus by the oil industry. In addition to extreme depths, metocean conditions in this region characterise an environment with high waves and strong winds, strong currents, complex circulation patterns, sharp density gradients, and large small- and mesoscale variability. These conditions pose operational challenges to oil spill response and question the suitability of current oil spill modelling frameworks (oil spill models and their forcing data) to adequately simulate the behaviour of a potential oil spill in the area. This article reviews the state of knowledge relevant to deepwater oil spill modelling for the FSC area and identifies knowledge gaps and research priorities. Our analysis should be relevant to other areas of complex oceanography.

Oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered Arctic marine waters: A review of recent developments and established practices.

Renewed political and commercial interest in the resources of the Arctic, the reduction in the extent and thickness of sea ice, and the recent failings that led to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, have prompted industry and its regulatory agencies, governments, local communities and NGOs to look at all aspects of Arctic oil spill countermeasures with fresh eyes. This paper provides an overview of present oil spill response capabilities and technologies for ice-covered waters, as well as under potential future conditions driven by a changing climate. Though not an exhaustive review, we provide the key research results for oil spill response from knowledge accumulated over many decades, including significant review papers that have been prepared as well as results from recent laboratory tests, field programmes and modelling work. The three main areas covered by the review are as follows: oil weathering and modelling; oil detection and monitoring; and oil spill response techniques.

Impact of climate change and seasonal trends on the fate of Arctic oil spills.

We investigated the effects of a warmer climate, and seasonal trends, on the fate of oil spilled in the Arctic. Three well blowout scenarios, two shipping accidents and a pipeline rupture were considered. We used ensembles of numerical simulations, using the OSCAR oil spill model, with environmental data for the periods 2009-2012 and 2050-2053 (representing a warmer future) as inputs to the model. Future atmospheric forcing was based on the IPCC's A1B scenario, with the ocean data generated by the hydrodynamic model SINMOD. We found differences in "typical" outcome of a spill in a warmer future compared to the present, mainly due to a longer season of open water. We have demonstrated that ice cover is extremely important for predicting the fate of an Arctic oil spill, and find that oil spills in a warming climate will in some cases result in greater areal coverage and shoreline exposure.

The significance of dilution in evaluating possible impacts of wastewater discharges from large cruise ships.

In response to public concerns about discharges from large cruise ships, Alaska's Department of Environmental Conservation (ADEC) sampled numerous effluents in the summer of 2000. The data showed that basic marine sanitation device (MSD) technology for black water (sewage) was not performing as expected. Untreated gray water had high levels of conventional pollutants and surprisingly high levels of bacteria. Both black water and gray water discharges sometimes exceeded state water quality standards for toxicants. The state convened a Science Advisory Panel (the Panel) to evaluate impacts associated with cruise ship wastewater discharges. The effluent data received wide media coverage and increased public concerns. Consequently, legislative decisions were made at the State and Federal level, and regulations were imposed before the Panel completed its evaluation. The Panel demonstrated that following the rapid dilution from moving cruise ships, the effluent data from the Summer of 2000 would not have exceeded water quality standards, and environmental effects were not expected.