A test for a shift in the boundary of the geographical range of a species.

One predicted impact of climate change is a poleward shift in the boundaries of species ranges. Existing methods for identifying such a boundary shift based on changes in the observed pattern of occupancy within a grid of cells are sensitive to changes in the overall rate of sightings and their latitudinal distribution that are unconnected to a boundary shift. A formal test for a boundary shift is described that allows for such changes. The test is applied to detect northward shifts in the northern boundary of the Essex skipper (Thymelicus lineola) butterfly and the European goldfinch (Carduelis carduelis) in Great Britain. A shift is detected in the latter case but not in the former. Results from a simulation study are presented showing that the test performs well.

On uncertain sightings and inference about extinction.

The extinction of many species can only be inferred from the record of sightings of individuals. Solow et al. (2012, Uncertain sightings and the extinction of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. Conservation Biology 26:180-184) describe a Bayesian approach to such inference and apply it to a sighting record of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker (Campephilus principalis). A feature of this sighting record is that all uncertain sightings occurred after the most recent certain sighting. However, this appears to be an artifact. We extended this earlier work in 2 ways. First, we allowed for overlap in time between certain and uncertain sightings. Second, we considered 2 plausible statistical models of a sighting record. In one of these models, certain and uncertain sightings that are valid arise from the same process whereas in the other they arise from independent processes. We applied both models to the case of the Ivory-billed Woodpecker. The result from the first model did not favor extinction, whereas the result for the second model did. This underscores the importance, in applying tests for extinction, of understanding what could be called the natural history of the sighting record.

An estimate of the cost of acute health effects from food- and water-borne marine pathogens and toxins in the USA.

Large and growing segments of the United States population consume seafood or engage in marine recreation. These activities provide significant benefits but also bring risk of exposure to marine-borne illness. To manage these risks, it is important to understand the incidence and cost of marine-borne disease. We review the literature and surveillance/monitoring data to determine the annual incidence of disease and health consequences due to marine-borne pathogens from seafood consumption and beach recreation in the USA. Using this data, we employ a cost-of-illness model to estimate economic impacts. Our results suggest that health consequences due to marine-borne pathogens in the USA have annual costs on the order of US$900 million. This includes US$350 million due to pathogens and marine toxins specifically identified as causing food-borne disease, an estimated US$300 million due to seafood-borne disease with unknown etiology, US$30 million from direct exposure to the Vibrio species, and US$300 million due to gastrointestinal illness from beach recreation. Although there is considerable uncertainty about the degree of underreporting of certain pathogen-specific acute marine-related illnesses, the conservative assumptions we have used in constructing our estimate suggest that it should be considered a lower bound on true costs.

Neurological illnesses associated with Florida red tide (Karenia brevis) blooms.

Human respiratory and gastrointestinal illnesses can result from exposures to brevetoxins originating from coastal Florida red tide blooms, comprising the marine alga Karenia brevis (K. brevis). Only limited research on the extent of human health risks and illness costs due to K. brevis blooms has been undertaken to date. Because brevetoxins are known neurotoxins that are able to cross the blood-brain barrier, it is possible that exposure to brevetoxins may be associated with neurological illnesses. This study explored whether K. brevis blooms may be associated with increases in the numbers of emergency department visits for neurological illness. An exposure-response framework was applied to test the effects of K. brevis blooms on human health, using secondary data from diverse sources. After controlling for resident population, seasonal and annual effects, significant increases in emergency department visits were found specifically for headache (ICD-9 784.0) as a primary diagnosis during proximate coastal K. brevis blooms. In particular, an increased risk for older residents (≥55 years) was identified in the coastal communities of six southwest Florida counties during K. brevis bloom events. The incidence of headache associated with K. brevis blooms showed a small but increasing association with K. brevis cell densities. Rough estimates of the costs of this illness were developed for hypothetical bloom occurrences.

Marine protected areas in 'nonlinear' ecosystems.

The very large changes observed within marine communities, owing to excessive harvesting, have been attributed to switches between alternative stable states. Correspondingly large reductions in overall fishing effort are usually difficult to implement. For such 'nonlinear' ecosystems, introducing large marine protected areas, with low to zero harvesting, but without reduction in overall fishing effort, can give a marked increase in total yield of the depleted stocks. These increases, however, are still less than can be achieved by reducing fishing effort.

The human health effects of Florida red tide (FRT) blooms: an expanded analysis.

Human respiratory and digestive illnesses can be caused by exposures to brevetoxins from blooms of the marine alga Karenia brevis, also known as Florida red tide (FRT). K. brevis requires macro-nutrients to grow; although the sources of these nutrients have not been resolved completely, they are thought to originate both naturally and anthropogenically. The latter sources comprise atmospheric depositions, industrial effluents, land runoffs, or submerged groundwater discharges. To date, there has been only limited research on the extent of human health risks and economic impacts due to FRT. We hypothesized that FRT blooms were associated with increases in the numbers of emergency room visits and hospital inpatient admissions for both respiratory and digestive illnesses. We sought to estimate these relationships and to calculate the costs of associated adverse health impacts. We developed environmental exposure-response models to test the effects of FRT blooms on human health, using data from diverse sources. We estimated the FRT bloom-associated illness costs, using extant data and parameters from the literature. When controlling for resident population, a proxy for tourism, and seasonal and annual effects, we found that increases in respiratory and digestive illnesses can be explained by FRT blooms. Specifically, FRT blooms were associated with human health and economic effects in older cohorts (≥55 years of age) in six southwest Florida counties. Annual costs of illness ranged from $60,000 to $700,000 annually, but these costs could exceed $1.0 million per year for severe, long-lasting FRT blooms, such as the one that occurred during 2005. Assuming that the average annual illness costs of FRT blooms persist into the future, using a discount rate of 3%, the capitalized costs of future illnesses would range between $2 and 24 million.