On the proportion of patients who experience a prodrome prior to psychosis onset: A systematic review and meta-analysis.

BACKGROUND: Preventing or delaying the onset of psychosis requires identification of those at risk for developing psychosis. For predictive purposes, the prodrome - a constellation of symptoms which may occur before the onset of psychosis - has been increasingly recognized as having utility. However, it is unclear what proportion of patients experience a prodrome or how this varies based on the multiple definitions used. METHODS: We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies of patients with psychosis with the objective of determining the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. Inclusion criteria included a consistent prodrome definition and reporting the proportion of patients who experienced a prodrome. We excluded studies of only patients with a prodrome or solely substance-induced psychosis, qualitative studies without prevalence data, conference abstracts, and case reports/case series. We searched Ovid MEDLINE, Embase (Ovid), APA PsycInfo (Ovid), Web of Science Core Collection (Clarivate), Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, APA PsycBooks (Ovid), ProQuest Dissertation & Thesis, on March 3, 2021. Studies were assessed for quality using the Critical Appraisal Checklist for Prevalence Studies. Narrative synthesis and proportion meta-analysis were used to estimate prodrome prevalence. I2 and predictive interval were used to assess heterogeneity. Subgroup analyses were used to probe sources of heterogeneity. (PROSPERO ID: CRD42021239797). RESULTS: Seventy-one articles were included, representing 13,774 patients. Studies varied significantly in terms of methodology and prodrome definition used. The random effects proportion meta-analysis estimate for prodrome prevalence was 78.3% (95% CI = 72.8-83.2); heterogeneity was high (I2 97.98% [95% CI = 97.71-98.22]); and the prediction interval was wide (95% PI = 0.411-0.936). There were no meaningful differences in prevalence between grouped prodrome definitions, and subgroup analyses failed to reveal a consistent source of heterogeneity. CONCLUSIONS: This is the first meta-analysis on the prevalence of a prodrome prior to the onset of first episode psychosis. The majority of patients (78.3%) were found to have experienced a prodrome prior to psychosis onset. However, findings are highly heterogenous across study and no definitive source of heterogeneity was found despite extensive subgroup analyses. As most studies were retrospective in nature, recall bias likely affects these results. While the large majority of patients with psychosis experience a prodrome in some form, it is unclear if the remainder of patients experience no prodrome, or if ascertainment methods employed in the studies were not sensitive to their experiences. Given widespread investment in indicated prevention of psychosis through prospective identification and intervention during the prodrome, a resolution of this question as well as a consensus definition of the prodrome is much needed in order to effectively direct and organize services, and may be accomplished through novel, densely sampled and phenotyped prospective cohort studies that aim for representative sampling across multiple settings.

Barriers and solutions to the adoption of translational tools for computational psychiatry.

Computational psychiatry is a field aimed at developing formal models of information processing in the human brain, and how alterations in this processing can lead to clinical phenomena. There has been significant progress in the development of tasks and how to model them, presenting an opportunity to incorporate computational psychiatry methodologies into large- scale research projects or into clinical practice. In this viewpoint, we explore some of the barriers to incorporation of computational psychiatry tasks and models into wider mainstream research directions. These barriers include the time required for participants to complete tasks, test-retest reliability, limited ecological validity, as well as practical concerns, such as lack of computational expertise and the expense and large sample sizes traditionally required to validate tasks and models. We then discuss solutions, such as the redesigning of tasks with a view toward feasibility, and the integration of tasks into more ecologically valid and standardized game platforms that can be more easily disseminated. Finally, we provide an example of how one task, the conditioned hallucinations task, might be translated into such a game. It is our hope that interest in the creation of more accessible and feasible computational tasks will help computational methods make more positive impacts on research as well as, eventually, clinical practice.

Towards Outcome-Driven Patient Subgroups: A Machine Learning Analysis Across Six Depression Treatment Studies.

BACKGROUND: Major depressive disorder (MDD) is a heterogeneous condition; multiple underlying neurobiological and behavioral substrates are associated with treatment response variability. Understanding the sources of this variability and predicting outcomes has been elusive. Machine learning (ML) shows promise in predicting treatment response in MDD, but its application is limited by challenges to the clinical interpretability of ML models, and clinicians often lack confidence in model results. In order to improve the interpretability of ML models in clinical practice, our goal was to demonstrate the derivation of treatment-relevant patient profiles comprised of clinical and demographic information using a novel ML approach. METHODS: We analyzed data from six clinical trials of pharmacological treatment for depression (total n = 5438) using the Differential Prototypes Neural Network (DPNN), a ML model that derives patient prototypes which can be used to derive treatment-relevant patient clusters while learning to generate probabilities for differential treatment response. A model classifying remission and outputting individual remission probabilities for five first-line monotherapies and three combination treatments was trained using clinical and demographic data. Prototypes were evaluated for interpretability by assessing differences in feature distributions (e.g. age, sex, symptom severity) and treatment-specific outcomes. RESULTS: A 3-prototype model achieved an area under the receiver operating curve of 0.66 and an expected absolute improvement in remission rate for those receiving the best predicted treatment of 6.5% (relative improvement of 15.6%) compared to the population remission rate. We identified three treatment-relevant patient clusters. Cluster A patients tended to be younger, to have increased levels of fatigue, and more severe symptoms. Cluster B patients tended to be older, female, have less severe symptoms, and the highest remission rates. Cluster C patients had more severe symptoms, lower remission rates, more psychomotor agitation, more intense suicidal ideation, and more somatic genital symptoms. CONCLUSION: It is possible to produce novel treatment-relevant patient profiles using ML models; doing so may improve interpretability of ML models and the quality of precision medicine treatments for MDD.

With an eye on uncertainty: Modelling pupillary responses to environmental volatility.

Living creatures must accurately infer the nature of their environments. They do this despite being confronted by stochastic and context sensitive contingencies-and so must constantly update their beliefs regarding their uncertainty about what might come next. In this work, we examine how we deal with uncertainty that evolves over time. This prospective uncertainty (or imprecision) is referred to as volatility and has previously been linked to noradrenergic signals that originate in the locus coeruleus. Using pupillary dilatation as a measure of central noradrenergic signalling, we tested the hypothesis that changes in pupil diameter reflect inferences humans make about environmental volatility. To do so, we collected pupillometry data from participants presented with a stream of numbers. We generated these numbers from a process with varying degrees of volatility. By measuring pupillary dilatation in response to these stimuli-and simulating the inferences made by an ideal Bayesian observer of the same stimuli-we demonstrate that humans update their beliefs about environmental contingencies in a Bayes optimal way. We show this by comparing general linear (convolution) models that formalised competing hypotheses about the causes of pupillary changes. We found greater evidence for models that included Bayes optimal estimates of volatility than those without. We additionally explore the interaction between different causes of pupil dilation and suggest a quantitative approach to characterising a person's prior beliefs about volatility.

Why We Still Use "Organic Causes": Results From a Survey of Psychiatrists and Residents.

The diagnostic category of "organic disorders" was officially removed from the psychiatric nosology in DSM-IV, published in 1994. Despite this change, physicians continue to use the term "organic causes" to refer to medical and neurological causes of psychiatric symptoms, and it remains part of the ICD-10 classification. In the context of increasing integration of psychiatric disorders within a medical and neuroscientific framework, the reasons behind the ongoing use of this term (reminiscent of mind-body dualism) have to be clarified. The authors conducted a survey of 391 Canadian psychiatrists and psychiatric residents to understand attitudes and beliefs related to this terminology and then applied qualitative and quantitative analyses. Results showed that the terminology is used by the majority (55.9%) of psychiatrists and residents for two main reasons: out of a habit that begins in residency training and because of the belief that other specialties do not fully understand alternative terminology. The authors found that some psychiatrists are concerned that their patients will not receive adequate investigation unless it is made clear through use of the "organic cause" term that other medical causes of psychiatric symptoms are suspected. Use of the "organic cause" term was predicted by being of younger age, performing emergency department calls, and finding alternative terminology difficult to use. These findings highlight the importance of reflecting on and discussing the effect of this terminology used in psychiatry.

Evidence for Reduced Sensory Precision and Increased Reliance on Priors in Hallucination-Prone Individuals in a General Population Sample.

BACKGROUND: There is increasing evidence that people with hallucinations overweight perceptual beliefs relative to incoming sensory evidence. Past work demonstrating prior overweighting has used simple, nonlinguistic stimuli. However, auditory hallucinations in psychosis are often complex and linguistic. There may be an interaction between the type of auditory information being processed and its perceived quality in engendering hallucinations. STUDY DESIGN: We administered a linguistic version of the conditioned hallucinations (CH) task to an online sample of 88 general population participants. Metrics related to hallucination-proneness, hallucination severity, stimulus thresholds, and stimulus detection rates were collected. Data were used to fit parameters of a Hierarchical Gaussian Filter (HGF) model of perceptual inference to determine how latent perceptual states influenced task behavior. STUDY RESULTS: Replicating past results, higher CH rates were observed both in those with recent hallucinatory experiences as well as participants with high hallucination-proneness; CH rates were positively correlated with increased prior weighting; and increased prior weighting was related to hallucination severity. Unlike past results, participants with recent hallucinatory experiences as well as those with higher hallucination-proneness had higher stimulus thresholds, lower sensitivity to stimuli presented at the highest threshold, and had lower response confidence, consistent with lower precision of sensory evidence. CONCLUSIONS: We replicate the finding that increased CH rates and recent hallucinations correlate with increased prior weighting using a linguistic version of the CH task. Results support a role for reduced sensory precision in the interplay between prior weighting and hallucination-proneness.

Development of a differential treatment selection model for depression on consolidated and transformed clinical trial datasets.

Major depressive disorder (MDD) is the leading cause of disability worldwide, yet treatment selection still proceeds via "trial and error". Given the varied presentation of MDD and heterogeneity of treatment response, the use of machine learning to understand complex, non-linear relationships in data may be key for treatment personalization. Well-organized, structured data from clinical trials with standardized outcome measures is useful for training machine learning models; however, combining data across trials poses numerous challenges. There is also persistent concern that machine learning models can propagate harmful biases. We have created a methodology for organizing and preprocessing depression clinical trial data such that transformed variables harmonized across disparate datasets can be used as input for feature selection. Using Bayesian optimization, we identified an optimal multi-layer dense neural network that used data from 21 clinical and sociodemographic features as input in order to perform differential treatment benefit prediction. With this combined dataset of 5032 individuals and 6 drugs, we created a differential treatment benefit prediction model. Our model generalized well to the held-out test set and produced similar accuracy metrics in the test and validation set with an AUC of 0.7 when predicting binary remission. To address the potential for bias propagation, we used a bias testing performance metric to evaluate the model for harmful biases related to ethnicity, age, or sex. We present a full pipeline from data preprocessing to model validation that was employed to create the first differential treatment benefit prediction model for MDD containing 6 treatment options.

A computational account of the development and evolution of psychotic symptoms.

The mechanisms of psychotic symptoms like hallucinations and delusions are often investigated in fully-formed illness, well after symptoms emerge. These investigations have yielded key insights, but are not well-positioned to reveal the dynamic forces underlying symptom formation itself. Understanding symptom development over time would allow us to identify steps in the pathophysiological process leading to psychosis, shifting the focus of psychiatric intervention from symptom alleviation to prevention. We propose a model for understanding the emergence of psychotic symptoms within the context of an adaptive, developing neural system. We will make the case for a pathophysiological process that begins with cortical hyperexcitability and bottom-up noise transmission, which engenders inappropriate belief formation via aberrant prediction error signaling. We will argue that this bottom-up noise drives learning about the (im)precision of new incoming sensory information because of diminished signal-to-noise ratio, causing an adaptive relative over-reliance on prior beliefs. This over-reliance on priors predisposes to hallucinations and covaries with hallucination severity. An over-reliance on priors may also lead to increased conviction in the beliefs generated by bottom-up noise and drive movement toward conversion to psychosis. We will identify predictions of our model at each stage, examine evidence to support or refute those predictions, and propose experiments that could falsify or help select between alternative elements of the overall model. Nesting computational abnormalities within longitudinal development allows us to account for hidden dynamics among the mechanisms driving symptom formation and to view established symptomatology as a point of equilibrium among competing biological forces.

Correction: Evaluating the Clinical Feasibility of an Artificial Intelligence-Powered, Web-Based Clinical Decision Support System for the Treatment of Depression in Adults: Longitudinal Feasibility Study.

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.2196/31862.].

Studying Psychosis Using Natural Language Generation: A Review of Emerging Opportunities.

Disrupted language in psychotic disorders, such as schizophrenia, can manifest as false contents and formal deviations, often described as thought disorder. These features play a critical role in the social dysfunction associated with psychosis, but we continue to lack insights regarding how and why these symptoms develop. Natural language generation (NLG) is a field of computer science that focuses on generating human-like language for various applications. The theory that psychosis is related to the evolution of language in humans suggests that NLG systems that are sufficiently evolved to generate human-like language may also exhibit psychosis-like features. In this conceptual review, we propose using NLG systems that are at various stages of development as in silico tools to study linguistic features of psychosis. We argue that a program of in silico experimental research on the network architecture, function, learning rules, and training of NLG systems can help us understand better why thought disorder occurs in patients. This will allow us to gain a better understanding of the relationship between language and psychosis and potentially pave the way for new therapeutic approaches to address this vexing challenge.

Taking modern psychiatry into the metaverse: Integrating augmented, virtual, and mixed reality technologies into psychiatric care.

The landscape of psychiatry is ever evolving and has recently begun to be influenced more heavily by new technologies. One novel technology which may have particular application to psychiatry is the metaverse, a three-dimensional digital social platform accessed via augmented, virtual, and mixed reality (AR/VR/MR). The metaverse allows the interaction of users in a virtual world which can be measured and manipulated, posing at once exciting new possibilities and significant potential challenges and risks. While the final form of the nascent metaverse is not yet clear, the immersive simulation and holographic mixed reality-based worlds made possible by the metaverse have the potential to redefine neuropsychiatric care for both patients and their providers. While a number of applications for this technology can be envisioned, this article will focus on leveraging the metaverse in three specific domains: medical education, brain stimulation, and biofeedback. Within medical education, the metaverse could allow for more precise feedback to students performing patient interviews as well as the ability to more easily disseminate highly specialized technical skills, such as those used in advanced neurostimulation paradigms. Examples of potential applications in brain stimulation and biofeedback range from using AR to improve precision targeting of non-invasive neuromodulation modalities to more innovative practices, such as using physiological and behavioral measures derived from interactions in VR environments to directly inform and personalize treatment parameters for patients. Along with promising future applications, we also discuss ethical implications and data security concerns that arise when considering the introduction of the metaverse and related AR/VR technologies to psychiatric research and care.

Using dimensionality-reduction techniques to understand the organization of psychotic symptoms in persistent psychotic illness and first episode psychosis.

Psychotic disorders are highly heterogeneous. Understanding relationships between symptoms will be relevant to their underlying pathophysiology. We apply dimensionality-reduction methods across two unique samples to characterize the patterns of symptom organization. We analyzed publicly-available data from 153 participants diagnosed with schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorder (fBIRN Data Repository and the Consortium for Neuropsychiatric Phenomics), as well as 636 first-episode psychosis (FEP) participants from the Prevention and Early Intervention Program for Psychosis (PEPP-Montreal). In all participants, the Scale for the Assessment of Positive Symptoms (SAPS) and Scale for the Assessment of Negative Symptoms (SANS) were collected. Multidimensional scaling (MDS) combined with cluster analysis was applied to SAPS and SANS scores across these two groups of participants. MDS revealed relationships between items of SAPS and SANS. Our application of cluster analysis to these results identified: 1 cluster of disorganization symptoms, 2 clusters of hallucinations/delusions, and 2 SANS clusters (asocial and apathy, speech and affect). Those reality distortion items which were furthest from auditory hallucinations had very weak to no relationship with hallucination severity. Despite being at an earlier stage of illness, symptoms in FEP presentations were similarly organized. While hallucinations and delusions commonly co-occur, we found that their specific themes and content sometimes travel together and sometimes do not. This has important implications, not only for treatment, but also for research-particularly efforts to understand the neurocomputational and pathophysiological mechanism underlying delusions and hallucinations.

The Best Predictor of the Future-the Metaverse, Mental Health, and Lessons Learned From Current Technologies.

The metaverse-a virtual world accessed via virtual reality technology-has been heralded as the next key digital experience. It is meant to provide the next evolution of human interaction after social media and telework. However, in the context of the growing awareness of the risks to mental health posed by current social media technologies, there is a great deal of uncertainty as to the potential effects of this new technology on mental health. This uncertainty is compounded by a lack of clarity regarding what form the metaverse will ultimately take and how widespread its application will be. Despite this, given the nascent state of the metaverse, there is an opportunity to plan the research and regulatory approaches needed to understand it and promote its positive effects while protecting vulnerable groups. In this viewpoint, we examine the following three current technologies whose functions comprise a portion of what the metaverse seeks to accomplish: teleworking, virtual reality, and social media. We attempted to understand in what ways the metaverse may have similar benefits and pitfalls to these technologies but also how it may fundamentally differ from them. These differences suggest potential research questions to be addressed in future work. We found that current technologies have enabled tools such as virtual reality-assisted therapy, avatar therapy, and teletherapy, which have had positive effects on mental health care, and that the metaverse may provide meaningful improvements to these tools. However, given its similarities to social media and its expansion upon the social media experience, the metaverse raises some of the same concerns that we have with social media, such as the possible exacerbation of certain mental health problems. These concerns led us to consider questions such as how the users will be protected and what regulatory mechanisms will be put in place to ensure user safety. Although clear answers to these questions are challenging in this early phase of metaverse research, in this viewpoint, we use the context provided by comparator technologies to provide recommendations to maximize the potential benefits and limit the putative harms of the metaverse. We hope that this paper encourages discussions among researchers and policy makers.

Everything is connected: Inference and attractors in delusions.

Delusions are, by popular definition, false beliefs that are held with certainty and resistant to contradictory evidence. They seem at odds with the notion that the brain at least approximates Bayesian inference. This is especially the case in schizophrenia, a disorder thought to relate to decreased - rather than increased - certainty in the brain's model of the world. We use an active inference Markov decision process model (a Bayes-optimal decision-making agent) to perform a simple task involving social and non-social inferences. We show that even moderate changes in some model parameters - decreasing confidence in sensory input and increasing confidence in states implied by its own (especially habitual) actions - can lead to delusions as defined above. Incorporating affect in the model increases delusions, specifically in the social domain. The model also reproduces some classic psychological effects, including choice-induced preference change, and an optimism bias in inferences about oneself. A key observation is that no change in a single parameter is both necessary and sufficient for delusions; rather, delusions arise due to conditional dependencies that create 'basins of attraction' which trap Bayesian beliefs. Simulating the effects of antidopaminergic antipsychotics - by reducing the model's confidence in its actions - demonstrates that the model can escape from these attractors, through this synthetic pharmacotherapy.

A systematic meta-review of patient-level predictors of psychological therapy outcome in major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Psychological therapies are effective for treating major depressive disorder, but current clinical guidelines do not provide guidance on the personalization of treatment choice. Established predictors of psychotherapy treatment response could help inform machine learning models aimed at predicting individual patient responses to different therapy options. Here we sought to comprehensively identify known predictors. METHODS: EMBASE, Medline, PubMed, PsycINFO were searched for systematic reviews with or without meta-analysis published until June 2020 to identify individual patient-level predictors of response to psychological treatments. 3113 abstracts were identified and 300 articles assessed. We qualitatively synthesized our findings by predictor category (sociodemographic; symptom profile; social support; personality features; affective, cognitive, and behavioural; comorbidities; neuroimaging; genetics) and treatment type. We used the AMSTAR 2 to evaluate the quality of included reviews. RESULTS: Following screening and full-text assessment, 27 systematic reviews including 12 meta-analyses were eligible for inclusion. 74 predictors emerged for various psychological treatments, primarily cognitive behavioural therapy, interpersonal therapy, and mindfulness-based cognitive therapy. LIMITATIONS: A paucity of studies examining predictors of psychological treatment outcome, as well as methodological heterogeneities and publication biases limit the strength of the identified predictors. CONCLUSIONS: The synthesized predictors could be used to supplement clinical decision-making in selecting psychological therapies based on individual patient characteristics. These predictors could also be used as a priori input features for machine learning models aimed at predicting a given patient's likelihood of response to different treatment options for depression, and may contribute toward the development of patient-specific treatment recommendations in clinical guidelines.

Conditioned Hallucinations and Prior Overweighting Are State-Sensitive Markers of Hallucination Susceptibility.

BACKGROUND: Recent advances in computational psychiatry have identified latent cognitive and perceptual states that predispose to psychotic symptoms. Behavioral data fit to Bayesian models have demonstrated an overreliance on priors (i.e., prior overweighting) during perception in select samples of individuals with hallucinations, corresponding to increased precision of prior expectations over incoming sensory evidence. However, the clinical utility of this observation depends on the extent to which it reflects static symptom risk or current symptom state. METHODS: To determine whether task performance and estimated prior weighting relate to specific elements of symptom expression, a large, heterogeneous, and deeply phenotyped sample of hallucinators (n = 249) and nonhallucinators (n = 209) performed the conditioned hallucination (CH) task. RESULTS: We found that CH rates predicted stable measures of hallucination status (i.e., peak frequency). However, CH rates were more sensitive to hallucination state (i.e., recent frequency), significantly correlating with recent hallucination severity and driven by heightened reliance on past experiences (priors). To further test the sensitivity of CH rate and prior weighting to symptom severity, a subset of participants with hallucinations (n = 40) performed a repeated-measures version of the CH task. Changes in both CH frequency and prior weighting varied with changes in auditory hallucination frequency on follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: These results indicate that CH rate and prior overweighting are state markers of hallucination status, potentially useful in tracking disease development and treatment response.

Evaluating the perceived utility of an artificial intelligence-powered clinical decision support system for depression treatment using a simulation center.

Aifred is a clinical decision support system (CDSS) that uses artificial intelligence to assist physicians in selecting treatments for major depressive disorder (MDD) by providing probabilities of remission for different treatment options based on patient characteristics. We evaluated the utility of the CDSS as perceived by physicians participating in simulated clinical interactions. Twenty physicians who were either staff or residents in psychiatry or family medicine completed a study in which they had three 10-minute clinical interactions with standardized patients portraying mild, moderate, and severe episodes of MDD. During these scenarios, physicians were given access to the CDSS, which they could use in their treatment decisions. The perceived utility of the CDSS was assessed through self-report questionnaires, scenario observations, and interviews. 60% of physicians perceived the CDSS to be a useful tool in their treatment-selection process, with family physicians perceiving the greatest utility. Moreover, 50% of physicians would use the tool for all patients with depression, with an additional 35% noting that they would reserve the tool for more severe or treatment-resistant patients. Furthermore, clinicians found the tool to be useful in discussing treatment options with patients. The efficacy of this CDSS and its potential to improve treatment outcomes must be further evaluated in clinical trials.

Computational Mechanism for the Effect of Psychosis Community Treatment: A Conceptual Review From Neurobiology to Social Interaction.

The computational underpinnings of positive psychotic symptoms have recently received significant attention. Candidate mechanisms include some combination of maladaptive priors and reduced updating of these priors during perception. A potential benefit of models with such mechanisms is their ability to link multiple levels of explanation, from the neurobiological to the social, allowing us to provide an information processing-based account of how specific alterations in self-self and self-environment interactions result in the experience of positive symptoms. This is key to improving how we understand the experience of psychosis. Moreover, it points us toward more comprehensive avenues for therapeutic research by providing a putative mechanism that could allow for the generation of new treatments from first principles. In order to demonstrate this, our conceptual paper will discuss the application of the insights from previous computational models to an important and complex set of evidence-based clinical interventions with strong social elements, such as coordinated specialty care clinics (CSC) in early psychosis and assertive community treatment (ACT). These interventions may include but also go beyond psychopharmacology, providing, we argue, structure and predictability for patients experiencing psychosis. We develop the argument that this structure and predictability directly counteract the relatively low precision afforded to sensory information in psychosis, while also providing the patient more access to external cognitive resources in the form of providers and the structure of the programs themselves. We discuss how computational models explain the resulting reduction in symptoms, as well as the predictions these models make about potential responses of patients to modifications or to different variations of these interventions. We also link, via the framework of computational models, the patient's experiences and response to interventions to putative neurobiology.