Utility of current risk stratification tests for predicting major arrhythmic events after myocardial infarction.

OBJECTIVES: We surveyed the literature to estimate prediction values for five common tests for risk of major arrhythmic events (MAEs) after myocardial infarction. We then determined feasibility of a staged risk stratification using combinations of noninvasive tests, reserving an electrophysiologic study (EPS) as the final test. BACKGROUND: Improved approaches are needed for identifying those patients at highest risk for subsequent MAE and candidates for implantable cardioverter-defibrillators. METHODS: We located 44 reports for which values of MAE incidence and predictive accuracy could be inferred: signal-averaged electrocardiography; heart rate variability; severe ventricular arrhythmia on ambulatory electrocardiography; left ventricular ejection fraction; and EPS. A meta-analysis of reports used receiver-operating characteristic curves to estimate mean values for sensitivity and specificity for each test and 95% confidence limits. We then simulated a clinical situation in which risk was estimated by combining tests in three stages. RESULTS: Test sensitivities ranged from 42.8% to 62.4%; specificities from 77.4% to 85.8%. A three-stage stratification yielded a low-risk group (80.0% with a two-year MAE risk of 2.9%), a high-risk group (11.8% with a 41.4% risk) and an unstratified group (8.2% with an 8.9% risk equivalent to a two-year incidence of 7.9%). CONCLUSIONS: Sensitivities and specificities for the five tests were relatively similar. No one test was satisfactory alone for predicting risk. Combinations of tests in stages allowed us to stratify 91.8% of patients as either high-risk or low-risk. These data suggest that a large prospective study to develop a robust prediction model is feasible and desirable.

National standard for measurement of resting and ambulatory blood pressures with automated sphygmomanometers.

The Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation develops voluntary standards for medical devices so that manufacturers might provide information on their product and basic safety and performance criteria that should be considered in qualifying the instrument for clinical use. American national standards are generated through a consensus process by committees consisting of experts in research, development, and design from user, industry, and government communities. Draft standards are made available for public review and may become American national standards after review by the American National Standards Institute. The first American national standard for electronic and automated sphygmomanometers was published in monograph form in 1987. The objective of the revised 1992 standard for electronic and automated sphygmomanometers is to provide updated labeling, safety, and performance requirements that help ensure that consumers and health care professionals are supplied with safe, accurate devices for the indirect measurement of blood pressure, including ambulatory blood pressure recorders. This standard permits validation of the automatic or electronic device by comparison with either direct, intra-arterial blood pressure measurements or the noninvasive cuff/stethoscope technique, based on Korotkoff sounds identified by individuals trained in auscultation. This summary report of the 1992 American national standard for automatic sphygmomanometers provides recommendations for the methods of comparison, statistical analysis of the data, presentation of the results, and criteria for acceptability. Users, researchers, and instrument designers should refer to the American national standard monograph for detailed requirements.

Optimal lead subsets for reconstruction of QRS and ST-T in 35-lead precordial maps.

Precordial maps have been used for some 15 years to estimate the extent of myocardial injury in patients with acute anterior or lateral wall infarction. Estimates have been based on various QRS- and ST-T-derived parameters, including amplitude sum of ST elevations. Application of the electrodes, commonly 35, is cumbersome and time-consuming with the critically ill. A subset of 5 or 7 selected leads can be applied instead, and the remaining leads calculated from that subset with minimal loss of QRS and ST-T information. Maps were recorded from 100 patients within 72 hours of onset of anterior or lateral infarct. Optimal lead subsets for QRS and ST-T feature extraction were found by the sequential selection method of Lux. Subsets numbering between 2 and 15 leads were derived, with their lead-transform coefficients. Measures to estimate goodness of fit for reconstructed leads included correlations, error-to-signal ratios and root-mean-square errors. These measures were calculated separately over the QRS and ST-T complexes. Reconstructions from a 7-lead subset had a mean 0.92 correlation with ST-T in the original leads and root-mean-square error of only 0.04 mV. Sum of ST elevation differed by only 2% between original leads and reconstructions based on 5 or more leads. To confirm repeatability, lead-transform coefficients were also calculated from a training population of 50 patients and applied to the maps of the other 50.

Clinical application of a second generation electrocardiographic computer program.

An electrocardiographic computer program based on multivariate analysis of orthogonal leads (Frank) was applied to records transmitted daily by telephone from the Veterans Administration Hospital, West Roxbury, Mass., to the Veterans Administration Hospital, Washington, D. C. A Bayesian classification procedure was used to compute probabilities for all diagnostic categories that might be encountered in a given record. Computer results were compared with interpretations of conventional 12 lead tracings. Of 1,663 records transmitted, 1,192 were selected for the study because the clinical diagnosis in these cases could be firmly established on the basis of independent, nonelectrocardiographic information. Twenty-one percent of the records were obtained from patients without evidence of cardiac disease and 79 percent from patients with various cardiovascular illnesses. Diagnostic electrocardiographic classifications were considered correct when in agreement with documented clinical diagnoses. Of the total sample of 1,192 recordings, 86 percent were classified correctly by computer as compared with 68 percent by conventional 12 lead electrocardiographic analysis. Improvement in diagnostic recognition by computer was most striking in patients with hypertensive cardiovascular disease or chronic obstructive lung disease. The multivariate classification scheme functioned most efficiently when a problem-oriented approach to diagnosis was simulated. This was accomplished by a simple method of adjusting prior probabilities according to the diagnostic problem under consideration.

American National Standard for nonautomated sphygmomanometers. Summary report.

The Association for the Advancement of Medical Instrumentation develops voluntary standards for medical devices so that manufacturers might provide information on their product and basic safety and performance criteria that should be considered in qualifying the instrument for clinical use. American National Standards are generated through a consensus process by committees of experts in research, development, and design from user, industry, and government communities. Draft standards are made available for public review and become American National Standards after review by the American National Standards Institute. This report is a summary of the American National Standard that establishes both the safety and performance requirements of pneumatic and other nonautomated sphygmomanometers (especially mercury gravity and aneroid sphygmomanometers) used in the indirect measurement of blood pressure. This standard was developed by a consensus panel from academia, industry, and government; it updates the previous standard approved by the American National Standards Institute in 1986. This summary report does not cover all of the provisions of the revised 1994 American National Standard, thus users, researchers, and instrument designers should refer to the standard for detailed requirements.

Ventricular assist systems for temporary life support: device readiness testing.

A description is given of a quality control and reliability program for establishing short-term ventricular-assist-device (VAD) safety and efficiency prior to clinical use. Experience in the clinical use of temporary VADs indicates that the pre-clinical reliability testing program works, since no device related failures occurred. The procedures have become much stricter, and a goal of 80% reliability for in vitro testing currently exists for the permanent, ventricular-assist system with strict guidelines on how to determine device-related failure. Animal testing requires total animal-months of continued usage consistent with the 80% in vitro reliability. A critical feature of the program has been freezing of device and system design throughout the quality control/assurance program, reliability testing, and clinical use.