Insects in temperate urban parks face stronger selection pressure from the cold than the heat.

Urban areas experience higher temperatures compared to rural areas and as such, are increasingly considered places of acclimatization and adaptation to warming. Small ectotherms, such as insects, whose body temperature rises with habitat temperature, are directly affected by temperature changes. Thus, warming could have a profound effect on insect behavior and physiology. To test if the urban heat island effect drives higher thermal tolerance and activity changes, we used globally distributed and abundant insects-ants. We measured the heat and cold tolerance of 14 ant species distributed across urban and peri-urban areas. As thermal traits are often correlated with ant foraging, we measured foraging activity during three consecutive years across eight sites. Contrary to our prediction, ants exposed to the urban heat island effect did not have a higher heat tolerance than peri-urban ants. Instead, cold tolerance varied across habitats, with ants from the cooler, peri-urban habitats being able to tolerate lower temperatures. We recorded the same pattern of invariant heat and higher cold tolerance for ants in the canopy, compared to ground nesting ants. Ant activity was almost 10 times higher in urban sites and best predicted by cold, not heat tolerance. These unexpected results suggest that we need to rethink predictions about urban heat islands increasing insect heat tolerance in urban habitats, as cold tolerance might be a more plastic or adaptable trait, particularly in the temperate zone.

Non-native ants are breaking down biogeographic boundaries and homogenizing community assemblages.

As geographic distance increases, species assemblages become more distinct, defining global biogeographic realms with abrupt biogeographic boundaries. Yet, it remains largely unknown to what extent these realms may change because of human-mediated dispersal of species. Focusing on the distributions of 309 non-native ant species, we show that historical biogeographic patterns have already broken down into tropical versus non-tropical regions. Importantly, we demonstrate that these profound changes are not limited to the distribution patterns of non-native ants but fundamentally alter biogeographic boundaries of all ant biodiversity (13,774 species). In total, 52% of ant assemblages have become more similar, supporting a global trend of biotic homogenization. Strikingly, this trend was strongest on islands and in the tropics, which harbor some of the most vulnerable ecosystems. Overall, we show that the pervasive anthropogenic impacts on biodiversity override biogeographic patterns resulting from millions of years of evolution, and disproportionally affect particular regions.

A mechanistic statistical approach to infer invasion characteristics of human-dispersed species with complex life cycle.

The rising introduction of invasive species through trade networks threatens biodiversity and ecosystem services. Yet, we have a limited understanding of how transportation networks determine patterns of range expansion. This is partly because current analytical models fail to integrate the invader's life-history dynamics with heterogeneity in human-mediated dispersal patterns. And partly because classical statistical methods often fail to provide reliable estimates of model parameters due to spatial biases in the presence-only records and lack of informative demographic data. To address these gaps, we first formulate an age-structured metapopulation model that uses a probability matrix to emulate human-mediated dispersal patterns. The model reveals that an invader spreads along the shortest network path, such that the inter-patch network distances decrease with increasing traffic volume and reproductive value of hitchhikers. Next, we propose a Bayesian statistical method to estimate model parameters using presence-only data and prior demographic knowledge. To show the utility of the statistical approach, we analyze zebra mussel (Dreissena polymorpha) expansion in North America through the commercial shipping network. Our analysis underscores the importance of correcting spatial biases and leveraging priors to answer questions, such as where and when the zebra mussels were introduced and what life-history characteristics make these mollusks successful invaders.